strategy and outlook - dtf.vic.gov.au

1、Strategy and Outlook 2006-07 Presented by The Honourable John Brumby, M.P. Treasurer of the State of Victoria for the information of Honourable Members Budget Paper No. 2 i TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 1 Financial Policy Objectives and Strategy.1 Financial strategy, objectives and priorities.2 Objectiv

2、e one: operating surplus .4 Objective two: infrastructure .6 Objective three: service delivery.10 Objective four: taxation.13 Objective five: net financial liabilities.16 Chapter 2 Economic Conditions and Outlook.19 Victorian economic projections.19 Economic overview.20 Chapter 3 Budget Position and

3、 Outlook .33 Budget estimates and outlook.33 Fiscal overview .39 Service delivery.43 Sources of revenue.47 Use of cash resources.48 Chapter 4 Balance Sheet Management and Outlook .51 Balance sheet.52 Total assets.55 Total liabilities .62 Financial analysis.66 Chapter 5 Commonwealth-State Financial R

4、elations .73 Potential gains from cooperative federalism.73 How GST funds are distributed.75 Reform of how GST revenue is shared between the states .77 Review of state taxes under the intergovernmental agreement .80 Impact of grants on Victorias financial position.81 Chapter 6 Statement of Risks.85

5、Economic risks.85 Fiscal risks.91 Contingent assets and liabilities.95 Chapter 7 Productivity, Participation and the Reform Agenda.109 Meeting the challenges to economic growth.109 A reform blueprint .111 Conclusion.119 Style Conventions.121 Index.123 ii Strategy and Outlook 2006-07Chapter 11 CHAPTE

6、R 1 FINANCIAL POLICY OBJECTIVES AND STRATEGY The Government will meet its $100 million budget surplus target, ensuring that businesses and families in Victoria have a stable financial environment in which to invest and plan for their future. The target will be achieved with a surplus of $317 million

7、 in 2006-07 and averaging $316 million over the forward estimates period. The Government is helping create greater capacity for economic growth through significant investments in infrastructure projects. This budget provides new asset investment funding with total estimated investment of $3.6 billio

8、n. In addition to the $1.3 billion announced in the 2005-06 Budget Update, this brings total 200607 TEI to $4.9 billion. Over the next four years, general government real capital stock will grow by 11.0 per cent; more than double the expected rate of population growth. The Government continues to ma

9、ke significant progress against its key social objectives, including rebuilding schools, hospitals, police stations, aged care facilities and community centres. All of the Governments election output and asset commitments have now been funded, with the remaining $112 million of funding provided in t

10、his Budget. This budget finances a number of major policy statements: Moving Forward: Making Provincial Victoria the Best Place to Live, Work and Invest; Maintaining the Advantage: Skilled Victorians investing in our training system; Healthy Futures delivering better health, research and jobs for Vi

11、ctorians; and Meeting Our Transport Challenges connecting Victorian communities. Victoria has continued to reform payroll tax, land tax and WorkCover premiums. All of these have been further reduced in this budget. As a result of these cuts, Victorias overall tax level is around the Australian avera

12、ge and significantly below that of New South Wales. 2Chapter 1Strategy and Outlook 2006-07 Victoria is maintaining modest and sustainable levels of net financial liabilities, consistent with its triple-A rating. The Government is using its strong balance sheet and budget position to fund key investm

13、ent projects that generate long- term benefits. FINANCIAL STRATEGY, OBJECTIVES AND PRIORITIES This chapter sets out the Governments financial policy objectives and strategies as required by the Financial Management (Financial Responsibility) Act 2000. The Act includes a set of sound financial manage

14、ment principles. These are to: manage financial risks faced by the State prudently, taking into consideration economic circumstances; pursue spending and taxation policies that are consistent with a reasonable degree of stability and predictability in the level of the tax burden; maintain the integr

15、ity of the Victorian tax system; ensure that government policy decisions have regard to their effects on future generations; and provide full, accurate and timely disclosure of financial information relating to the activities of the Government and its agencies. In its 2002 election policy statement,

16、 Delivering Financial Responsibility, the Government announced its financial strategy, objectives and priorities. A sound financial position provides a stable financial basis from which growth can be promoted across the whole State through delivering world-class infrastructure to drive economic grow

17、th and improving the quality, access and equity in key services to all Victorians. Strategy and Outlook 2006-07Chapter 13 In the edition of Growing Victoria Together released on 29 March 2005, the Government considered Victorias changing environment and identified some crucial challenges ahead, incl

18、uding: creating more quality jobs and innovative industries, and growing and linking all of Victoria; providing high quality and accessible health and community services, education and training services; protecting the environment and reducing the level of greenhouse gas emissions and solid waste; b

19、uilding safe and friendly communities that respect diversity and reduce the disadvantages in health, education and housing; and promoting sound financial management and an accountable government that encourages the participation of all Victorians in public affairs. The Governments short and long-ter

20、m financial objectives are summarised in Table 1.1. The rationale for, and progress against, each of the five objectives is discussed in the following sections of this chapter. Table 1.1: 2006-07 Financial objectives Long-termShort-term Maintain a substantial budget operating surplus Operating surpl

21、us of at least $100 million in each year Deliver world-class infrastructure to maximise economic, social and environmental benefits Implement strategic infrastructure projects Provide improved service delivery to all Victorians Complete the implementation of the 2002 election commitments Provide a f

22、air and efficient tax system that is competitive with other states Implement reforms to Victorias business taxation system Maintain state government net financial liabilities at prudent levels Maintain a triple-A credit rating 4Chapter 1Strategy and Outlook 2006-07 OBJECTIVE ONE: OPERATING SURPLUS T

23、he Government continues to meet its target of maintaining an operating surplus of at least $100 million. While achieving this objective, the Government has also reduced taxes, increased investment and kept net financial liabilities at prudent levels. This strong operating performance has increased t

24、he States net worth and contributed to economic stability and business growth in Victoria. As part of the implementation of the Australian equivalents to International Financial Reporting Standards (A-IFRS), the Government reviewed the financial measure against which the $100 million operating surpl

25、us is to be achieved, and determined that the A-IFRS net result from transactions is the most robust measure of the Governments financial management under the new standards. Further information about the A-IFRS operating statement and financial measure is available in Budget Paper No. 4. The A-IFRS

26、net result from transactions is expected to be $317 million in 2006-07 and to average $316 million over the forward estimates (see Chart 1.1). The Governments fiscal strategy is to maintain a buffer above the $100 million minimum operating surplus to allow for unforseen circumstances and provide bud

27、get flexibility. Chart 1.1: General government sector net result from transactions 0 100 200 300 400 500 2006-072007-082008-092009-10 $ million 2006-07 Budget$100 m target Source: Department of Treasury and Finance Strategy and Outlook 2006-07Chapter 15 Alternative measures of operating performance

28、As shown in Table 1.2, the GFS net operating balance, used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (see Budget Paper No. 4, Chapter 6, Uniform Presentation of Government Finance Statistics), is the same as the A-IFRS net result from transactions. Both measures exclude the effects of revaluation (hold

29、ing gains or losses) arising from changes in market prices and other changes in the volume of assets. Table 1.2: A-IFRS and GFS budget measures ($ million) 2006-072007-082008-092009-10 BudgetEstimateEstimateEstimate A-IFRS net result from transactions 317 305 331 312 A-IFRS net result 276 271 302 28

30、3 GFS net operating balance 317 305 331 312 GFS net lending/(borrowing)( 582)( 896)(1 183)( 796) GFS cash surplus/(deficit) (a) 157( 818)( 925)( 706) Source: Department of Treasury and Finance Note: (a)International Monetary Fund/GFS cash surplus/deficit equals the net cash flows from operating acti

31、vities less investments in non-financial assets, and excludes acquisitions under finance leases. When various revaluation gains and losses on assets and liabilities and provision for doubtful debts are added to the A-IFRS net result from transactions, the A-IFRS net result is obtained. In the budget

32、 and forward years, these revaluations are expected to be quite small; however, in the current year, gains and losses have the potential to add substantial volatility to the A-IFRS net result. A GFS measure of operating performance is net lending. This measure is equal to the GFS net operating balan

33、ce less net capital formation. Reflecting the Governments substantial infrastructure investment, GFS net lending in 2006-07 shows a deficit of $582 million. In the forward estimates period, the GFS net lending deficit averages $958 million a year. The GFS cash surplus is equal to net cash flows from

34、 operating activities less net acquisition of non-financial assets and acquisition under finance leases. As a flow measure of operating performance, the cash surplus excludes non-cash expenses such as superannuation and employee entitlements. The GFS cash position is expected to be in surplus by $15

35、7 million in 2006-07 and in deficit by an average of $816 million over the forward years. In summary, the A-IFRS net result from transactions and other measures of operating performance show that Victorias financial performance remains sound. 6Chapter 1Strategy and Outlook 2006-07 OBJECTIVE TWO: INF

36、RASTRUCTURE The Government is committed to delivering world-class infrastructure. Since 2000-01, the Government has invested around $13 billion in infrastructure, averaging over $2 billion a year. This is around double the annual average investment in the five years prior to 2000-01. Chart 1.2 shows

37、 the general government net infrastructure investment since the beginning of the decade, together with projections for the forward estimates period. The level of investment is expected to average $3.2 billion a year over the next four years. Chart 1.2: General government sector net infrastructure in

38、vestment(a) 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 1999-002000-012001-022002-032003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-092009-10 $ million Net purchases of fixed assetsDepreciation Source: Department of Treasury and Finance Note: (a)Includes purchases of property, plant and equipment and net cont

39、ributions to other sectors of government less proceeds from sale of property, plant and equipment. Over the period 2006-07 to 2009-10, general government net infrastructure investment will exceed estimated depreciation by around $1.7 billion a year, resulting in an 11.0 per cent growth in the real c

40、apital stock over the four years to June 2010. This is more than double the 4.2 per cent projected population growth over the same period. Chart 1.3 shows that in real per capita terms, the average stock of public infrastructure for each Victorian will grow from $8 764 in 2001 to $9 740 by 2010. Str

41、ategy and Outlook 2006-07Chapter 17 Chart 1.3: General government sector real capital stock per capita as at 30 June 7 500 8 000 8 500 9 000 9 500 10 000 2001200220032004200520062007200820092010 $ per capita (2003-04 prices) Source: Department of Treasury and Finance Record capital spending is annou

42、nced as part of the 2006-07 Budget with new asset funding expected to reach $3.6 billion total estimated investment (TEI). This is in addition to the 2005-06 Budget Update capital investment worth $1.3 billion TEI. The 2006-07 Budget provides record levels of investment in transport and education. T

43、he Governments Meeting our Transport Challenges statement committed to inject $10.5 billion into the transport network over the next ten years, of which $1.7 billion is for recurrent expenditure and $8.8 billion is for new transport projects. This major new investment in the States transport network

44、 will connect our growing communities, cut congestion, and deliver a modern and safe system for all Victorians. 8Chapter 1Strategy and Outlook 2006-07 Chart 1.4 provides an indication of the increasing level of investment this Government has made in transport infrastructure since 1999. The average a

45、nnual increase in the real level of investment in transport infrastructure from 1999-2000 to 2015-16 is expected to be over 8 per cent. Chart 1.4 Department of Infrastructure State funded transport real capital expenditure(a) 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1997-981999-002001-022003-042005-062007-082009

46、-102011-122013-142015-16 $ million (2003-04 prices) Meeting Our Transport Challenges - capital expenditure (b) Estimated capital expenditure - forward estimates (c) Actual capital expenditure - public transport and roads Sources: Department of Infrastructure and portfolio agencies, Annual Reports, 1

47、997-98 to 2004-05 and Department of Treasury and Finance Notes: (a) Includes State-funded investment in fixed assets and capital contributions to VicTrack, Transport Ticketing Authority, V/Line and SEITA. Excludes projects funded through Private Public Partnership arrangements, public transport fran

48、chise arrangements and estimated Commonwealth funded investment expenditure. (b) Includes transport commitments to be delivered by Department of Infrastructure only. (c)Forward estimates include impact of previous project commitments. Strategy and Outlook 2006-07Chapter 19 Meeting Our Transport Chal

49、lenges establishes a forward plan of transport projects over the next 10 years, including: a $400 million investment to create a cross-town transport network for Melbourne; the provision of $2 billion to deliver a substantial boost in the capacity of Melbournes rail network; investment of $1.6 billi

50、on to deliver major improvements to Melbournes train and tram services, including new trains and trams; an additional $400 million to help deliver first class public transport for provincial Victoria; an additional $2 billion to upgrade Victorias arterial road network, including construction of the Western Highway-Deer Park Bypass; a $737 million packa