世界投資報告2009-2011世界投資報告survey

1、精品文檔你我共享 腹有詩書氣自華 2009-2011 prospects survey TABLE OF CONTENTS NOTE ii PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGMENTSvii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY1 CHAPTER I. SHARP SHORT-TERM DECLINE, FOLLOWED BY A PROGRESSIVE RECOVERY IN TNCs FDI PLANS9 第一章：非常短的下降時期，隨之而來的是跨國公司直接投資計劃的累進(jìn)復(fù)蘇 In vestme nt pla ns for 2009 in dicate a sharp fall9 2

2、009年投資計劃顯示了較大的滑落 9 Most of resp ondent compa nies intend to reduce their FDI in 2009 .9 大部分被調(diào)查的公司打算在2009年減少直接投資.9 A strong negative impact of the crisis on investment plans11 危機(jī)對投資計劃的強(qiáng)烈負(fù)面影響 11 A stro ng avers ion to un certa inty13 對不確定性的極度討厭 13 15 Greater recourse to non-equity entry modes? 對非股權(quán)進(jìn)入模

3、式的較大依賴 15 Factors and tim ing for a recovery in FDI16 FDI復(fù)蘇的要素和時機(jī)16 A gradual recovery as early as 2010?16 盡早在2010年逐步恢復(fù)？ 16 TNCs optimism grows over time17 跨國公司的樂觀不久會增長 17 The process of internationalization is set to continue19 國家化仍在繼續(xù)19 CHAPTER II. THE CRISIS HAS AFFECTED FDI PLANS IN ALL REGIONS2

4、 1 第二章：危機(jī)已經(jīng)在所有領(lǐng)域影響了計劃FDI TNCs FDI pla ns reveal a com mon patter n: a decrease followed by a rebo und21 跨國公司的FDI計劃透露常規(guī)模式：下降之后是反 彈21 A widespread n egative impact in the short term21 短時期內(nèi)的大范圍負(fù)面影響 21 Recovery expected in all home regi ons in 201124 所有母國有望在2011年復(fù)蘇 24 FDI pla ns by home region25 母國的FDI計

5、劃25 Geographical patter ns of FDI: a regi onal perspective27 FDI中的地理模式：一個區(qū)域視角 27 CHAPTER III. BUSINESS-CYCLE-SENSITIVE INDUSTRIES 第三章：商業(yè)周期敏感行業(yè) THE WORST HIT BY THE CRISIS33 危機(jī)的嚴(yán)重打擊33 The primary sector and services face better FDI prospects than manufacturing 33 與制造業(yè)相比，第一產(chǎn)業(yè)和服務(wù)業(yè)有更好的fdi前 景33 Key findi

6、ngs 33 主要發(fā) 現(xiàn) 33 An alysis by sector 34 部門分 析 34 Varying FDI pla ns of differe nt in dustries37 不同產(chǎn)業(yè)的多樣化 FDI計劃37 Manu facturi ng sector 38 制造 業(yè)38 Services 41 服務(wù) 業(yè) 41 CHAPTER IV. DEVELOPING COUNTRIES SEEM LESS AFFECTED BY THE SLOWDOWN IN FDI45 第四章：發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)體受到FDI減少的影響較小 The slowdow n in FDI hits developed

7、regi ons the most45 FDI減少大部分沖擊了發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體 45 TNCs con ti nue to give develop ing coun tries high priority for FDI48 跨國公司繼續(xù)給與發(fā)展中國家FDI的高度優(yōu)先 權(quán)48 Particularly good prospects for Asia and Latin America49 亞洲和拉丁美洲的特殊商品前景49 Top 15 coun tries: what makes them attractive to FDI?53 前15位國家：什么使得它們吸引FDI?53 No major ch

8、a nges to the list of most favoured coun tries53 大部分受惠國沒有較大變化 53 Major locati on assets by country55 國家的主要位置資產(chǎn) 55 Con clusi ons 59 59 結(jié)論 Refere nces 61 Annexes 63 Questi onn aire 73 Ann ex 1. Methodology of the World In vestme nt Prospects Survey63 Ann ex 2. Characteristics of the top 5,000 non-fina

9、n cial TNCs66 Annex 3. Survey results: detailed statistical tables68 Annex 4. Classifications used in the survey70 Boxes Box 1. The UNCTAD World In vestme nt Prospects Survey1 Box 2. All bus in ess functions are set to intern ati on alize 20 Box 3. Major locati on determinants56 Figures Figure 1. FD

10、I in flows, global and by group of econo mies, 1980 - 2008 (Billions of dollars)10 Figure 2. Resp ondent compa nies FDI expe nditures pla ns, 2009 - 2011, as compared to 2008 (Per cent of responses)10 Figure 3. Impact of variousaspects of the crisis on compa nys investment plans for 2009- 2011 (Per

11、cent of responses)12 Figure 4. Impact of various aspects of the crisis on company s investment plans for 2009- 2011 (Average value of responses)13 Figur e 5. Most likely risks and their potential impact on companies decisi ons (Average value of responses)14 Figure 6. Importanee of risk factors for F

12、DI decisions, 2009- 2011 (Average number of responses) 14 Figure 7. Different entry modes used by TNCs (Average value of responses)16 Figure 8. Resp ondent compa nies FDI expe nditure pla ns as compared to 2008 (Average value of responses)17 v WIPS 2009-2011 Figure 9. Distribution of the degree of o

13、ptimism/pessimism regarding the medium-term FDI outlook, globally and for the resp ondent compa ny (Per cent of resp on ses)18 Figure 10.Distributi on of the degree of optimism/pessimism regarding the medium-term FDI outlook, globally and for the respondent compa ny (Average value of responses)18 Fi

14、gure 11. Companies level of internationalization by various indicators, 2008 and 2011 (Per cen t of respo nses)19 Figure 12. TNCs s views on global FDI prospects, by home region, 2009 - 2011 (Average value of responses)23 Figure 13. Cha nge in respo ndent TNCs FDI relative to 2008, by home region, 2

15、009- 2011 (Average value of responses)23 Figure 14. Internationalization index of respondent companies, by home regi on/ cou ntry, 2008 and 2011 (Average value of responses)24 Figure 15. Internationalization of corporate functions by home regi on, 2008 (Average value of responses)29 Figure 16. Europ

16、ea n TNCs regional prefere nces for FDI, 2008 and 2011 (Average value of responses)29 Figure 17. North America n TNCs regi onal prefere nces for FDI, 2008 and 2011 (Average value of responses)30 Figure 18. Japa nese TNCs regional prefere nces for FDI, 2008 and 2011 (Average value of responses)31 Fig

17、ure 19. Asia n develop ing coun tries TNCs regional prefere nces for FDI, 2008 and 2011 (Average value of responses)32 Figure 20. Impact of the econo mic dow ntur n on TNCs in vestme nt pla ns, 2009 2011, by sector/industry (Average value of responses). 34 Figure 21. Expected evolution of compa nies

18、 FDI in 2011 si nee 2008, by in dustry (Average value of resp on ses)35 Figure 22. Intern atio nalizati on in dex of resp ondent compa ni es, by in dustry, 2008 (average value of respon ses)37 Figure 23. Regi on s/groups most affected by the reduct ion in TNCs investment plans for 2009- 2011 (Per ce

19、nt of responses)47 Figure 24. Perce ntage of resp ondent compa nies with in vestme nts in various regi on s/groups (Per cent of resp on ses)47 Figure 25. In vestme nt prefere nces, by host regi on /group, 2008 and 2011 (Average value of resp on ses)48 Figure 26. FDI growth prospects, by host region/

20、group, 2007- 2010 and 2008 - 2011 (Average value of responses)49 Figure 27. The 15 most attractive econo mies for the locati on of FDI, 2009 - 2011 (Per cent of responses)54 vi World Investment Prospects Survey 2009-2011 WIPS 2009-2011 Tables Table 1. Summary of survey results6 Table 2. FDI outflows

21、 and cross-border M&A purchases, by regi on and major economy, 2007-2008 22 Table 3. Perce ntage of compa nies with in vestme nts in differe nt host regi ons, by home regi on (Per cent of resp on ses)28 Table 4. Importanee of locational factors, by industry, 2009- 2011 (Per cent of all resp on ses p

22、er sector)44 Table 5. FDI in flows and cross-border M&A sales, by regi on and major economy, 2007-200846 Table 6. Main in vestme nt in dicators by regi on50 Table 7. Top FDI desti nati ons, by home region55 Table 8. Top 15 countries for FDI, by factors favouring investment, 2009 - 2011 57 Box figure

23、s Box figure 2.1. Proporti on of various corporate fun ctio ns un dertake n abroad, 2008 and 2011 (average value of resp on ses)20 Box figure 3.1. Locational criteria in order of importanee, 2009-201 (per cent of responses)56 Annex tables Annex table 1. Comparing the representation of the frame, sam

24、ple and survey resp on ses, by region64 Annex table 2. Compari ng the represe ntati on of the frame, sample and survey resp on ses, by sector64 Ann ex table 3. List of WIPS regio nal experts65 Annex table 4. Top 5,000 compa nies by sector and industry66 Annex table 5. Top 5,000 companies by size of

25、total assets 67 Annex table 6. Top 5,000 compa nies by total assets, by home country of the pare nt compa ny67 Annex table 7. Resp ondents by sector and industry68 Annex table 8. Resp ondents by size of total assets69 Annex table 9. Resp ondents by home regi on69 Annex table 10. Classification by ho

26、me regi on70 Annex table 11. Classification by host regi on70 Annex table 12. Classification by in dustry71 vii WIPS 2009-2011 ABBREVIATIONS CIS Common wealth of In depe ndent States EU Europea n Union FDI foreig n direct in vestme nt JBIC Japa n Bank for Intern ati onal Cooperati on M&A merger and

27、acquisiti on PWC PricewaterhouseCoopers R&D research and developme nt SEE South-East Europe TNC transn ati onal corporati on UNCTAD Un ited Nati ons Co nference on Trade and Developme nt WIPS World In vestme nt Prospects Survey EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 總結(jié) Like other economic activities, foreign direct inve

28、stment (FDI) has bee n going through dramatic cha nges since the end of 2008. The unu sual magn itude of the ongoing econo mic and finan cial crisis the worst in the last 60 years - raises major concerns about the prope nsity and capability of TNCs to con ti nue in vesti ng and expa nding abroad. 像其

29、他經(jīng)濟(jì)活動一樣，外國直接投資從2008年底獎勵了巨大的變化。 經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融危機(jī)持續(xù)異常變動過去 60年中最差的 激起有關(guān)跨 國公司繼續(xù)海外投資和擴(kuò)張的前景和能力的主要擔(dān)憂。 Falteri ng profits, reduced access to finan cial resources, decli ning market opport un ities, as well as the risk of a possible worse ning of the curre ntglobal econo mic dow ntur n are obvious causes for a fall i

30、n FDI flows. 利潤下降，融資減少，市場機(jī)會衰退，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)萎縮可能進(jìn)一步惡化的 風(fēng)險都是FDI減少的明顯原因。 This in turn also raises concerns among host coun tries - especially in the develop ing world which rely heavily on intern ati onal in vestme nts to finance their domestic growth and employme nt creati on. 這相應(yīng)地引東道國的擔(dān)憂一一特別發(fā)展中國家一一很大程度上以來國 際投

31、資支持國內(nèi)增長以及創(chuàng)造就業(yè)機(jī)會。 To what exte nt will the crisis affect FDI flows? Whe n can a rebo und be expected? Which host regi ons and in dustries will be most affected? 危機(jī)將在多大程度上影響FDI?何時能法壇？哪個東道國和產(chǎn)業(yè)將受損 最嚴(yán)重？ One possible way to gain in sights into these issues is to questi on TNC executives about the effect o

32、f the crisis on their intern ati onal investmentstrategi es. This is the major focus of this year World s Inv estme nt Prospects Survey (box 1). 一個有效的方法是詢問跨國公司執(zhí)行者有關(guān)危機(jī)對他們國際投資策略 的影響。 Box 1. The UNCTAD World In vestme nt Prospects Survey: a methodological brief. BOX1.聯(lián)合國貿(mào)發(fā)會議世界投資前景調(diào)查。一個方法總結(jié) In order to

33、compleme nt its an alysis of FDI trends in its annual World Inv estme nt Reports , UNCTAD con ducts an annual survey of a sample of compa ny executives selected among the largest non-finan cial transn ati onal corporati ons (TNCs) (annex 1). This survey, published as the World Inv estme nt Prospects

34、 Survey (WIPS), aims at providi ng in sights into FDI patterns over the subseque nt three years. Rather tha n provid ing a qua ntitative projecti on, it offers an assessme nt of resp ondents views at the time the survey was un dertake n. This year WIPS 2009- 2011 is based on 241 responses collected

35、by mail, e-mail and direct an swers to a dedicated website betwee n February and May 2009. About 20 direct in terviews with resp ondents were also con ducted in order to gain a more in-depth un dersta nding of c ompa nies internationalization strategies. To explore medium-term opport un ities and an

36、 alyse risks and un certa in ties affect ing FDI, i nterviews were also con ducted with a nu mber of locati on experts con sulta nts, academics and members of in vestme nt promoti on age ncies (listed in annex table 3). WIPS 2009- 2011 is based on the same methodology as the 2007 and 2008 surveys, t

37、hereby allowing a comparison of the results (annex 1). Source: UNCTAD. The followi ng is a summary of the main findings fromWIPS 2009 2011 (table 1).下面是2009-2011主要發(fā)現(xiàn)的總結(jié) Global FDI outlook in 2009. Due to the n egative impact of the ongoing econo mic and finan cial crisis, and major un certa in ties

38、regard ing its evoluti on in the short term, compa nies expect a sharp decli ne in their FDI expe nditures in 2009. 2009全球FDI展望。由于現(xiàn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融危機(jī)的負(fù)面影響，短期內(nèi)進(jìn)展 的大部分不確定性，公司預(yù)期他們的FDI支出在2009年大幅度減少。 Companies investment plans have already been significantly affected by various aspects of the ongoing econo mic and

39、 finan cial crisis:85% of the responding firms reported its negative impact on their FDI expe nditures and programmes, among which 37% declared this impact to be“ very n egative”. 公司的投資計劃已經(jīng)很大陳堵上被現(xiàn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融危機(jī)大部分方面影 響:回應(yīng)公司中的85%報告他們FDI支出和項(xiàng)目的負(fù)面影響，其中37%宣 布這個影響是“非常負(fù)面的”。 Firms are very concerned about the sho

40、rt-term evolution of their bus in ess en viro nment. Almost 90% of them are pessimistic or very pessimistic about global FDI prospects for 2009. 公司都非常擔(dān)心短期商業(yè)環(huán)境的變化。幾乎90%對2009年全球FDI前景 持悲觀態(tài)度。 Among the looming global risks that could pote ntially affect TNCs FDI pla ns, resp ondents con sidered three as

41、 especially threate ning: a deepe ning of the global econo mic dow nturn, an in crease in finan cial in stability, and a rise in protecti onism in volvi ng a cha nge in foreig n in vestme nt regimes. The volatility of petroleum and raw material prices and excha nge-rate in stability were also deemed to be major threats. 在可能潛在影響跨國公司的FDI計劃中，全球風(fēng)險 出師表 兩漢：諸葛亮 先帝創(chuàng)業(yè)未半而中道崩殂，今天下三分，益州疲弊，此誠危急存亡之秋也。然侍衛(wèi)之臣 不懈于內(nèi)，忠志之士忘身于外者，蓋追先帝之殊遇，欲報之于陛下也。誠宜開張圣聽，以光 先帝遺德，恢弘志士之氣，不宜妄自菲薄，引喻失義，以塞忠諫之路也。 宮中府中，俱為一體；陟罰臧否，不宜異同。若有作奸犯科及為忠善者，宜付有司論其 刑賞，以昭陛下平明之理