房地產(chǎn)市場報告 高力國際

1、內(nèi)部資料經(jīng)濟基本面加速 物業(yè)租金維穩(wěn)本地投資者主導中國投資市場2010年3月29日 - 北京 - 在中國經(jīng)濟基本面持續(xù)走強的背景下，中國房地產(chǎn)市場各子市場的租金保持穩(wěn)定，而在部分城市則出現(xiàn)了平穩(wěn)增長的現(xiàn)象。投資者對中國房地產(chǎn)市場興趣依舊。在過去的一年中，本地投資者在投資交易中占據(jù)主導地位，而海外投資者則尚未在中國參與核心資產(chǎn)的收購。高力國際北亞洲區(qū)董事總經(jīng)理柳維倫先生在今天的新聞發(fā)布會上指出，中國房地產(chǎn)市場正受益于經(jīng)濟增長的強勁勢頭表現(xiàn)出良好的發(fā)展態(tài)勢。他表示：“不斷增加的需求使新增寫字樓項目凈吸納率上升。強大的國內(nèi)消費支撐著零售業(yè)銷售的增長，轉而又帶動了對于高端零售業(yè)物業(yè)的需求。盡管政府為緩

2、和過熱的房地產(chǎn)市場出臺的調(diào)控措施將帶來一些調(diào)整，但豪宅物業(yè)仍是最吸引投資者的選擇?！标P于投資市場方面，柳維綸先生認為：“雖然存在收益率壓縮和規(guī)范投資、抑制投機的政府政策，中國的投資環(huán)境仍然有著廣闊的前景。本地發(fā)展商和投資者因為有著足夠的現(xiàn)金流、樂觀的經(jīng)濟展望、和對貨幣政策變動的較低風險預計，將繼續(xù)成為海外同行收購物業(yè)資產(chǎn)時的強有力競爭對手。”一般而言，投資者的興趣表現(xiàn)在一線城市的寫字樓、零售業(yè)物業(yè)和住宅市場，以及二線城市的零售業(yè)物業(yè)和住宅市場。而現(xiàn)在，它們已經(jīng)重返能帶來更大回報率的二三線城市。本次新聞發(fā)布會還重點分析了中國三個主要城市北京、上海、和廣州的房地產(chǎn)市場走勢。北京2010年1季度的甲

3、級寫字樓新增供應有限，僅為32,000平方米。整體空置率降至16.27%，較2009年4季度略低。隨著需求的小幅提升，寫字樓租金略漲1.06%，但與去年同期相比仍下降了7.2%。未來，甲級寫字樓的需求量將繼續(xù)增長，到2010年底，凈吸納量將超過28萬平方米。巨大新增供應量的涌入將部分抵消租金上漲的勢頭，造成租金反復浮動。預計隨著2010年下半年需求量的恢復，租金將在2010年底企穩(wěn)并在2011年后加速上漲。雖然整體零售業(yè)物業(yè)租賃市場表現(xiàn)平淡，但眾多外資和外地零售商已經(jīng)開始為其在北京的擴張積極布局。整體空置率環(huán)比下降0.24個百分點，在2010年1季度末達到16.04%。與此同時，受本季度新入市

4、項目的影響，租金下降至人民幣690.63元每月每平米，環(huán)比下降0.5%。由于一些零售物業(yè)業(yè)主缺乏運營經(jīng)驗，針對這些經(jīng)營狀況不佳的購物中心，市場初現(xiàn)潛在投資機會。北京住宅市場的強勁需求已持續(xù)十余年未減，但2010年1季度的供應量比較有限。本季僅有2個豪宅項目的465套房屋完工入市。隨著經(jīng)濟基本面的加速和入住需求的增長，預計住宅租賃市場發(fā)展前景良好。豪宅租金已回升1.82%至人民幣131.68元每月每平米，售價環(huán)比增長11.4%至38.338元每平米。但因為借貸控制收緊及其它一些政策原因，售價漲幅環(huán)比回落3.83%。預計住宅市場將繼續(xù)調(diào)整，但豪宅的平均售價保持平穩(wěn)?？紤]到經(jīng)濟環(huán)境日漸轉好，租賃市場

5、可望全面恢復。北京土地交易活躍，總交易額環(huán)比增長44%，同比增長170%。國資委明令78家央企退出樓市之后，其余的本地企業(yè)將繼續(xù)在土地交易市場占主導地位，推動地價繼續(xù)上升。2010年1季度，北京投資市場保持活躍，從佳程廣場的成交即可見一斑。預計未來總投資額將繼續(xù)上升，本地企業(yè)將在更大程度上主導投資市場。零售物業(yè)將繼續(xù)吸引海外與本地的大批投資者。但是對于大多數(shù)現(xiàn)有業(yè)主和潛在買家而言，如何更加專業(yè)地運營購物中心仍是一大挑戰(zhàn)。上海在2010年1季度，甲級寫字樓的新增供應僅為5,000平方米。在政府關于2020年使上海成為國際金融中心的利好愿景刺激下，需求量有所增加，空置率從2009年底的最高點下降至

6、13.7%，寫字樓租金環(huán)比小幅上漲1.7%。在浦東地區(qū)，租賃成交尤為活躍。而在浦西的cbd，空置率已經(jīng)下降為10%。預計，在未來的1年內(nèi)，寫字樓租金同比降幅將逐漸縮小。在2009年末達到谷底之后，預計售價將會穩(wěn)步回升。零售物業(yè)租賃方面，租金已從2009年下半年開始回升。在上海世博會即將開幕的利好推動下，市場需求明顯上漲，cbd區(qū)域的租金也上漲明顯，2010年第一季度已經(jīng)增長了5%。高端住宅租賃市場也受益于世博會的召開，市場對于需求量的預期激增，供應量上漲了10%，但由于2010年1季度新增外籍雇員的租賃需求非常強勁，因此空置率未現(xiàn)下降而是依然維持在2009年末的24.4%水平。在銷售方面，普通

7、住宅市場將有調(diào)整，售價預計下降10%左右。預計，在資金充裕及人民幣升值的預期下，高端住宅市場售價將保持平穩(wěn)。在投資市場，本地投資者表現(xiàn)活躍。寫字樓物業(yè)成為金融機構投資的首選。外資已經(jīng)重新表現(xiàn)出意向并開始采取行動，但將面臨本地投資者的有力競爭。廣州由于2008和2009年新增供應僅有25萬平方米，廣州甲級寫字樓的空置率下降至16.3%。雖然2011年的寫字樓新增面積預期為134萬平方米左右，但政府的40億人民幣計劃將帶動更多的跨國企業(yè)總部進駐，將空置率保持在一個合理的水平。而事實上，寫字樓租金從2009年下半年已開始緩慢回升。在2010年第一季度，寫字樓租金已上升至人民幣133元每平米。但是租金

8、的上漲并未趕上售價，這也將導致收益率的進一步壓縮。因為巨大的供應量即將涌入，廣州的零售業(yè)物業(yè)市場將出現(xiàn)競爭激烈的局面，同時也將有更多的一線國際高端品牌進駐。消費品零售銷量的增長成為商鋪租金的支柱。但隨著天河區(qū)一些新購物中心的完工，這一區(qū)域的商鋪檔次會逐漸提高，同時將廣州不同區(qū)域的零售業(yè)檔次差距進一步拉大。住宅銷售市場保持穩(wěn)定，尤其是高端住宅部分，投資者依然喜好其帶來的更高回報。在普通住宅市場，價格將保持堅挺，但是對下半年交易量降低的預計會給價格造成下降的壓力。 (完)關于高力國際高力國際是一家國際知名的房地產(chǎn)服務機構，致力為全球物業(yè)用家、業(yè)主及投資者提供全方位的房地產(chǎn)服務。高力國際在全球61個

9、國家共設有294家分公司，擁有12,700位雇員，全球管理物業(yè)總面積超過1.02億平方米，年度營業(yè)收入16億美元。所提供的服務包括物業(yè)代理、物業(yè)管理、酒店投資買賣及顧問、企業(yè)咨詢服務、房地產(chǎn)估值、咨詢及評估服務、項目管理、銀行按揭服務及市場研究等。高力國際是一家由獨立地產(chǎn)服務機構組成的國際聯(lián)盟機構。在大中華地區(qū)，高力國際擁有9間分公司、2400位專業(yè)人才，物業(yè)管理面積超過2,000萬平方米，并在40個城市擁有駐場辦事處。高力國際為跨國及本地客戶提供全方位的地產(chǎn)服務，包括：銷售及租賃、業(yè)主服務、物業(yè)駐戶服務、租戶代表、投資服務及特別項目、顧問、估值、研究與咨詢、企業(yè)咨詢、項目策劃與推廣，及物業(yè)與

10、資產(chǎn)管理等。有關高力國際在中國的業(yè)務領域，請瀏覽：for more information, please contactcathy shiassistant manager, marketing & communicationstel: +86 10 8518 1633 (ext 808)cathy.shiaccelerating economic fundamentals stabilise property rentals local investors take the lead in chinas investment market29 march 2010, beijing as

11、the economic fundamentals in china continue to strengthen, rentals across all property sectors will stabilise, with some cities experiencing a steady growth. meanwhile, investors interest in the real estate market in china will sustain. local investors have taken up a major share in the sales transa

12、ctions in the past year. foreign investors have yet to catch up in acquiring core assets in the country. speaking at a press conference today, alan liu, managing director, north asia of colliers international, pointed out that the real estate markets are benefiting from the economic growth momentum

13、in china. “improved occupational demand has brought about growing net absorption of new office space. strong local consumption sustains the growth in retail sales and in turn, the demand for prime retail space. luxury residential properties remain a popular choice of investment despite impending con

14、solidation due to the governments measures to cool down the overheated market.”in view of the investment sector, mr. liu said, “china offers a very promising investment climate despite yield compression and the governments policies to curb speculation. with sufficient liquidity, optimistic economic

15、outlook and smaller perceived risk of dramatic changes on monetary policy, local developers and/or investors continue to compete with their overseas counterparts to acquire property assets.” investors generally demonstrate strong interests in office, retail and residential properties in first-tier c

16、ities, and retail and residential in second-tier cities. they have now returning to second and third tier cities, which offer a higher return.- more - continued -the press conference also covered the real estate market of the three major markets for occupier and investors in china, namely beijing, s

17、hanghai and guangzhou.beijingthe new supply of grade a office space in 1q 2010 was relatively limited, with only 32,000 sq m completed during the first quarter. overall vacancy rate declined to 16.27% - a mild decrease from 4q 2009. with a small increase in demand, office rents edged up by 1.06%, bu

18、t down 7.2% year-on-year (yoy). looking ahead, the demand for grade a office should continue to grow, with the total net absorption (or take-up) exceeding 280,000 sq m by end-2010. the surge of new supply should offset the rental growth momentum, bringing about a “w-shape” rental movement. with an e

19、xpected recovery in demand in 2h 2010, rents should become stabilised by end-2010 and start to grow again in 2011 and beyond.the overall retail market was sluggish although many overseas and domestic retailers started and resumed their expansionary activities in beijing. overall vacancy rate decreas

20、ed by 0.24 percentage points quarter-on-quarter (qoq), to 16.04% by end-1q 2010. meanwhile, rentals weighed down to rmb690.63 per sq m per month, a decrease of 0.5% qoq, given a slate of new completions being injected into the market during the quarter. due to a lack of retail operation experience a

21、mong some retail property owners, opportunities for investment into underperforming shopping centres loom in the market. the demand for residential properties in beijing was strong, as it has been over the last decade, but new supply remained limited in 1q 2010. there were only two new luxury develo

22、pments with a total of 465 units completed in this quarter. with accelerating economic fundamentals and growing occupational demand, the residential leasing market is expected to grow. luxury residential rentals registered a rebound of 1.82% to rmb131.68 per sq m per - more - continued -month, while

23、 capital values grew by 11.4% qoq to rmb 38.338 per sq m. but the pace of capital value growth slowed by 3.83% qoq, which was the result of tightening lending controls and other restrictive policy issues. looking down to road, the residential market should continue to consolidate, but the average ca

24、pital values of luxury residential properties should remain firm. considering the improved economic climate, a full recovery in the leasing sector is expected.beijings land sales market was very active, with total transaction volume rising by 44% qoq or 170% yoy. while the state-owned assets supervi

25、sion and administration commission (sasac) has urged 78 state-owned enterprises to withdraw from the property market, the remaining local companies continued to dominate the activity in the land sales market, driving prices upward. the investment market in beijing remained active in 1q 2010, evidenc

26、ed by the transaction of gateway plaza. while overall investment volume is expected to trend up, local enterprises, to a greater extent, should continue to take the lead in the investment sales market. retail assets continue to be appealing to a wide range of investors, both overseas and domestic. h

27、owever, the difficulty in running a centre to a more professional and “stylish” manner remains a challenge to most existing landlords and potential buyers. shanghaiin 1q 2010, the supply of new grade a office space was limited to 5,000 sq m. coupled with the governments vision to transform shanghai

28、as an international financial centre by 2020, the demand began to pick up, and the vacancy rate declined from its peak at the end of 2009 to 13.7%. office rentals have edged up 1.7% qoq. leasing activities have been particularly active in pudong. in puxi cbd, the vacancy rate has been reduced to 10%

29、. over the next 12 months, the decline in office rentals will taper off. after hitting the bottom at the end of 2009, a steady increase in sales prices is anticipated.- more - continued -in the retail leasing sector, the rentals started to pick up in the second half of 2009. driven by potential stro

30、ng demand arising from the shanghai world expo, rentals in cbd has increased more rapidly with a 5% increase in 1q 2010.anticipating a surge in demand from the world expo, the supply of high-end residential units has gone up by 10%. the vacancy rate, however, has been kept at the same level of 24.4%

31、 at 1q 2010 as in the year-end of 2009 owing in large part to stronger demand from new expatriate recruitment. on the sales front, consolidation in the mass market is expected to continue with an expected price drop of 10%. the high-end luxury residential market will remain stable, however, because

32、of sufficient financing and an anticipated appreciation of rmb. local investors have been very active in the investment sales market. office properties are the top choice among financial institutions. foreign investors show signs of renewed interest in the market and have become more active in takin

33、g up positions; however, they will face strong competition from local investors.guangzhoudue to the limited supply of 250,000 sq m in 2008 and 2009, the vacancy rate of grade a office in guangzhou has declined to 16.3%. though 1,340,000 sq m of new office space is anticipated in 2011, the government

34、s 4-billion rmb programme to attract more multinational corporate headquarters should help to keep the vacancy rate at a reasonable level. in fact, office rentals began to edge up from the second half of 2009. in 1q 2010, office rental increased to rmb133 per sq m. however, as rental increases have

35、yet to catch up with sales prices, yields are expected to compress further. guangzhous retail industry is a very competitive landscape as there is a huge amount of supply coming on stream. there have been many more first-tier international and high-end brands entering the market. the increasing volu

36、me of retail sales of consumer goods will serve to sustain retail property rentals. gradually, however, with the completion of several new retail developments in tianhe - more - continued -district which will improve the quality of retail offerings in this area, there will be a widening rental gap amongst the various districts in guangzhou.the residenti