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1、text asurviving an economic crisis經濟危機中求生存1 the economic slump so many people suffered through originated in the united states, with a regulatory failure of mortgages rated less risky than they turned out to be. as large numbers of homeowners proved unable to repay their loans, the companies that ha
2、d the oversight and those that owned the loans (as well as their subsidiaries and their shareholders) lost sizable amounts of money. the effects of these drastic losses soon spiraled into the us job market as layoffs and terminations. the rebound was slow in coming. many people experienced long mont
3、hs of struggles just like the character in this story.許許多多的人正經歷的這場經濟蕭條發(fā)端于美國。對抵押貸款監(jiān)管不力,致使當時的風險評 估遠低于現(xiàn)在的最終結果。由于大量的房產所有人無法償還貸款,負責監(jiān)管的公司、放貸的 公司(以及其子公司及股份持有者)都損失了大筆的金錢。這些巨額虧損的后果很快就影響 到美國就業(yè)市場,造成下崗或解雇。經濟復興遲遲不來。許多人幾個月來都是苦苦掙扎,正 如下面故事中的主人公那樣。2 facing tenant eviction after several months of unpaid rent, sue joh
4、nson packed up whatever she could fit into her two-door automobile and drove out of town.蘇約翰遜有好幾個月都未付房租了,面臨著被逐出的境地,她把能塞進她的那輛雙門轎車 的東西都打包收拾好,離城而去。3 she wound up at a motel, putting down the $260 she had managed to scrape together from friends and from selling her living room set. it was all the money
5、sue had left after her unemployment benefits had expired. she faced life as a migrant, a previously unimaginable situation for a woman who, not that long before, had held a corporate job in a large metropolitan city and was enrolled in a graduate business school.她最后在一家汽車旅館落腳,交付了 260 美元的定金,這還是她設法從朋友那
6、兒以及賣掉家 具后湊齊的,是蘇在失業(yè)救濟金被終止后所有的余錢。她面臨流浪生活,這在以前是難以想 象的,而她不久以前都還在大都市里一家公司供職,并就讀于商學院研究生班。4 sue knew that in all likelihood, she would end up living in her car. she was part of a hard -luck group of jobless people who called themselves 99ers, because they had exhausted the maximum 99 weeks of unemployment
7、insurance benefits that they could claim.蘇明白自己最終很可能以車為家。她如今已成為倒霉的失業(yè)群體中的一份子,他們自稱“99 周人”,因為他們已經領完至多 99 周的失業(yè)保險救濟金。5 long-term unemployment was at record levels, according to the bureau of labor statistics. modest payments of unemployment benefits were a lifeline that enabled people who were out-of-work
8、 to maintain at least an appearance of normalcy, keeping a roof over their heads, putting gas in their cars, paying electric and phone bills.根據勞動統(tǒng)計局的數據,長期失業(yè)率已達到創(chuàng)紀錄的水平。些許的失業(yè)救濟金對那些失去工 作的人來說可是救命錢,這使他們不至于形貌落魄,無立錐之地;不至于無錢加油,繳不起 電費話費。16 without the checks, people like sue, who once was a director of clien
9、t services at a technology company, began to tumble over the economic cliff. the last aspects of their former working -class or middle-class lives were gone, and all of them faced unsure futures.一旦收不到失業(yè)救濟支票,哪怕是像蘇這樣曾經貴為技術公司客服經理的人,也會日益跌入 經濟窘迫的深淵;原有工薪階層或中產階級的最后一抹榮光也已消逝不在,所有人都前途未 卜。7 when sue received h
10、er last unemployment check, she felt a wave of profound grief. with no income to deposit, sues checking account deteriorated into negative balances. her car was on the verge of being repossessed. and, the constant harassment of the financing company for her car loan added to her daily stress. each d
11、ay, like a ping pong ball, sue went back and forth between resolve and despair.當蘇收到最后一筆失業(yè)救濟支票時,陣陣悲涼涌上心頭。由于沒有收入進賬,蘇的活期賬戶 余額轉為負值。汽車行將被收回!而且信貸公司不斷騷擾,催還車貸,讓她成天壓力倍增。 每天,蘇就像乒乓球一樣在信心和絕望之間起落不定。8 it was a sickening plunge considering that only a short year and a half before, sue was earning $56,000 a year at
12、 her old job, enjoyed vacationing in places like mexico and the caribbean, and had started business school at an excellent university.生活境遇真是令人痛心地一落千丈!想想僅在短短的一年半之前,蘇在原有工作崗位上可掙 到 56,000 美元的年薪,可在像墨西哥、加勒比那樣的地方度假,還就讀于名校商學院。9 initially, sue had tried to finish her university certification remotely, but fi
13、nally dropped out because of the stress from her sinking finances. she applied for every possible job in the employment spectrum, from minimum-wage retail jobs to director positions.最初,蘇還試圖通過遠程教育完成學業(yè),但是由于自己經濟狀況每況愈下,最后只好輟學。 她通過各種就業(yè)渠道求職,不管是起薪干起的零售活兒還是部門經理。10 sue should have been evicted from her two-b
14、edroom apartment for non-payment several months before she was, but, thankfully, the process was delayed by paperwork and bureaucracy. eventually, the bureaucracy caught up with her and a municipal council gave her 10 days to leave her apartment for good. she had no choice but to comply.由于未付房租,蘇早在幾個
15、月前就應被逐出她那兩居室的公寓。不過,謝天謝地,這一過程 因為繁瑣的文件手續(xù)和官僚主義作風而拖延至今。最終政府機構還是找上了她,市政委員會 限定她十天內徹底走人。除了遵從,她別無選擇。11 that last day of her old life, sue wept as she drove away. she wondered if she would ever again be able to reclaim that life of comfort and respect. sue even considered turning the steering wheel of her ca
16、r into a tree and ending her life story right there.就在告別昔日生活的最后一天,蘇流著淚駕車離去。她不知道自己還能否重溫那舒適而又受 人尊敬的生活。蘇甚至想過打轉方向盤一頭撞向大樹,就此了結一生。12 friends came to her aid. one friend wired her $200 while she was driving away from her old2apartment, enabling her to find refuge in a motel along the way. but sue worried t
17、here wouldnt be any more charity for the money and gas she desperately needed.朋友們及時施以援手。就在她駕車離開公寓的路上,一位朋友給她電匯來 200 美元,使得她 能夠在沿途的一家汽車旅館覓得棲身之所。但是她擔心不會再有人來援助自己急需的錢和汽 油了。13 helped by gas cards donated by a church, sue decided to return to her hometown. she figured the health -care safety net there was b
18、etter, as well as the job market. she contacted a local shelter but learned there was a waiting list. welfare was not an option, because she didnt have young children. and, sue knew that none of her three adult sons were in a position to help her.有了教堂贈送的加油卡,蘇打算返回家鄉(xiāng)。她想那兒的醫(yī)療保障體系會好一些,找工作也容 易些。她聯(lián)系了當地的收容
19、所,但是得到的回答是先得排隊等著。領取福利救濟沒有她的份, 因為她沒有未成年的孩子。蘇知道她的三個已成年的兒子也幫不了她。14 i knew the only help i was going to get was from me myself, sue said. i thought to myself: i have to take care of myself. i really, really need to get work. i need a job. i dont want to be seen as a parasite.“我知道,只有自己才能幫自己,”蘇說?!拔腋嬖V自己:我得
20、養(yǎng)活自己。我確實得干活,我 要找份工作,我可不想被人看成寄生蟲?!?5 sues motel room was depressing. lining the shelves underneath the television were her food supplies: rice and noodles that she mixed with water in the motels ice bucket and heated up in a microwave; peanut butter and jelly; a loaf of white bread the subsistence of
21、 a desperate person. sues days were spent surfing internet job indexes and applying for jobs where the silent no. no. no. gave way to a feeling of helplessness.蘇在汽車旅館的房間極其窘迫。電視下面的壁櫥里存放著幾樣食物:大米和面條,這兩樣她 可在旅館的冰鎮(zhèn)桶里與水和在一起,然后在微波爐里加熱;另外還有花生醬、果凍和一條白 面包這些食物也就供一個走投無路的人勉強度日而已。蘇連日來都在上網查找各種工作 指南,四處求職;但一次次無聲的拒絕讓她
22、陷于無助。16 sue had all new struggles and obstacles to deal with too, like what to do for an address for job applications. she worried about what would happen when her cell phone was cut off for non-payment, and calls to her number would disappear into an invisible world she could not reach. 蘇還有新的煩心事要應付
23、:比如求職信的通信地址該如何填寫。她還擔心要是手機因為欠費 停機了怎么辦?別人撥打她的號碼,就如石沉大海,她無法接聽。17 finally, an old friend sent sue a ray of hope, a small miracle: $300 cash just enough for another brutal week of struggle.終于,一位老朋友送來一縷希望,一個小小的驚喜:300 美元的現(xiàn)金勉強夠她再苦撐一 周。text beconomic bubbles: causes and conditions經濟泡沫:成因與條件31 economic bubble
24、s occur when, for any number of reasons, excessive investment in commodities (such as oil), securities (such as stocks and bonds), real estate, or collectibles drives up prices well beyond the items intrinsic value. the inevitable result of this boom in price is a crash or bust. the price falls shar
25、ply once it becomes clear that it has grown far beyond the purchasing power of potential customers.不管因為何種原因,一旦人們對于商品(如石油)、證券(如股票、債券)、房地產或收藏品 過度投資從而推高其價格,使其遠遠超過商品的內在價值,經濟泡沫就會產生。而這種價格 暴漲不可避免的結果就是經濟的崩潰或破滅。一旦價格大大超過潛在消費者購買力的趨勢明 了,價格就會急劇下跌。2 speculators risk money in such investments because they hope tha
26、t the price of an asset they purchased will quickly increase. since most speculators are nervous about where they invest their money, bubbles are by no means the norm. after all, every investment entails the risk that it is overpriced. they also know that rising prices will encourage either greater
27、production of a commodity or greater willingness of current owners to sell. either of these conditions can serve as a negative feedback mechanism that adjusts prices downward. as an analogy, think of negative economic feedback like your eyes. as the light gets brighter, your pupils get smaller and l
28、et in less light. but what if, instead, your eyes worked as a positive feedback mechanism? in sunlight, your pupils would open wide and damage your eyes.投機者們因為希望購買的資產價格能夠急劇上漲才進行這樣的風險投資。由于大多數的投機 者對資金的投向都有所顧慮,因此泡沫的產生絕非常態(tài)。畢竟每筆投資都包含估價過高的風 險。他們也知道價格上漲要么會推動商品產量的進一步擴大,要么促使現(xiàn)有的持有者更愿意 賣出。不管哪種情況都會有助于形成促使價格下行的“
29、負面反饋”機制。打個比方,把負面經 濟反饋比作人的眼睛,光線越強,瞳孔越小,攝入的光亮就會越少。但要是人的眼睛發(fā)揮的 是“正面反饋”機制作用,結果會怎樣呢?在太陽光下,瞳孔就會張大,從而對眼睛造成傷害。3 economic bubbles occur when prices trending sharply upward spur positive, rather than negative, feedback. for whatever reason (fear of shortages, greed, an excessively optimistic attitude toward th
30、e future, or flaws in the analysis of an assets underlying value), buyers believe that the value of the asset will continue to rise. if the price rises, overly enthusiastic speculators buy more, or those who missed out on the lower price flock to buy before the price rises any higher. the foremost e
31、xplanation is the greater fool theory: buyers justify their purchases by assuring themselves they will find a greater fool who will pay even more. buyer enthusiasm infects other buyers, amplifying the effect even further. under the right conditions, prices can reach dizzying heights before falling.
32、one famous example is the tulip -buying bubble which happened in amsterdam in the 1630s when a single tulip bulb could cost a years salary.如果價格急劇上行引起的是正面而非負面反饋,就會產生經濟泡沫。因為擔心供應不足,因 為貪心,或是對其未來過分樂觀,或是因為對資產的內在價值的分析存在疏漏不管何種 原因,購買者相信其價值會持續(xù)上行。如果價格上漲,狂熱的投機者就會買入更多,或者那 些錯過低價買入的人就會在價格進一步攀升之前蜂擁入市。對此現(xiàn)象的解釋莫過于“博傻理
33、 論”:買入方深信自己能找到下一個甘愿出更高價格的冤大頭,從而認為自己的買賣是合理 的。搶購熱會相互感染,從而會進一步放大此種效應。在合適的條件下,價格會一路飆升至 令人目眩的高位,然后下跌。人盡皆知的例子就是 17 世紀 30 年代發(fā)生在阿姆斯特丹的郁金 香搶購泡沫,當時,一株郁金香球莖的價格相當于一年的工資。44 most bubbles are easily assimilated or averted by an elastic market. provided the bubble is small enough, the losers earn wisdom in retrospe
34、ct, and the winners earn a lot of money. but the effects of a bubble might become cumulative if many owners of an overpriced asset feel rich and spend foolishly, especially in a period of deregulation. imagine this: you buy a house for $200,000, for which you borrowed $160,000 beforehand. you have $
35、40,000 in equity in the house. over the next five years, the market appraisal rises to $500,000. now you have $340,000 in equity ($500,000 $160,000), so you borrow another $240,000 from a bank using this equity to secure the loan. you still have $100,000 in equity in your home, and you have $240,000
36、 to spend. you suddenly feel less need to be economical with your purchases and allocate more money for things like a vacation home, a new car, etc.大多數的泡沫容易被彈性市場加以消化或轉移。只要這種泡沫不是很大,輸家花錢買聰明, 贏家則賺得盆滿缽滿。但如果資產虛高,持有人恃富而揮霍無度,這種泡沫效應就會不斷積 累,尤其在市場缺乏監(jiān)管之時。試想一下:你以 200,000 美元購買一套房子,事先貸款 160,000 美元,則房產凈值為 40,000 美
37、元。五年過后,市場估價上升到500,000 美元?,F(xiàn)在你獲得的 房產凈值就是 340,000 美元(即$500,000-$160,000),于是你以此作擔保,再貸款240,000 美 元。你依然持有 100,000 美元的房產凈值,還有 240,000 美元可供花銷。頓時,你會覺得沒 有必要節(jié)省開支,還能抽出更多錢來購置度假屋及新車等等。5 but equity is not revenue. the market holds long enough for you to spend the money. then it crashes and the value of your home f
38、alls to $325,000. now you have negative equity and owe the bank almost $400,000. so you default on your loan and give your house, car, and vacation home to the bank. if this situation is widespread, it can culminate in the failure of those banks and a severe crackdown on the lending needed to grow t
39、he economy.但房產凈值并不是收益。市場長期保持穩(wěn)定,讓你有足夠的時間花錢。后來,市場崩潰,你 的房屋價值跌至 325,000 美元。你現(xiàn)在持有的房產凈值為負,倒欠銀行將近 400,000 美元。 為此,你就停止還款,將房子、車子和度假屋等交給銀行。此種情形一旦蔓延,終會讓銀行 難以為繼,并最終沉重打擊發(fā)展經濟所需的貸款業(yè)務。6 there are also stock market bubbles. in a normal market, investors buy stock in a company because they anticipate that future prof
40、its will become dividends and they believe the value of the companys assets will increase. sometimes, though, a herd mentality sets in and too many brokers rush to buy, driving prices like mercury up a thermometer to levels that prove unrealistic. eventually it becomes clear that further increases a
41、re not forthcoming and price deterioration develops, followed by a swift drop. when this happens to too many companies in aggregate, it is called a stock market crash.股票市場也有泡沫。在正常市場上,投資者購買一個公司的股票是因為他們預期公司未來的 利潤會成為紅利,相信公司的資產能增值。不過,有時由于“羊群效應”,眾多經紀人蜂擁熱 購,股價就像溫度計里的水銀被一路推至虛高。最終,形勢變得明了:股價不再上漲,演變 為股價下挫,暴跌也
42、隨之而來。當這種情況集中爆發(fā)于眾多的公司時,就被稱為股市崩盤。7 a recent stock market bubble was the dot-com bubble. the buzz about the economic possibilities of the internet encouraged investors to fund the creation of many dot -com companies too many it turned out. for several years, dozens of entrepreneurs sought to duplicate for5
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