Chap通貨膨脹與失業(yè)之間的短期權(quán)衡取舍PPT課件

1、通貨膨脹與失業(yè)之間的短期通貨膨脹與失業(yè)之間的短期權(quán)衡取舍權(quán)衡取舍The Short-Run Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment第29章Chapter 29（對(duì)應(yīng)教材35章）第1頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)失業(yè)與通貨膨脹失業(yè)與通貨膨脹Unemployment and Inflationu自然失業(yè)率取決于勞動(dòng)市場(chǎng)的各種特點(diǎn)。 The natural rate of unemployment depends on various features of the labor market.u例如，最低工資法、工會(huì)的市場(chǎng)勢(shì)力、效率工資的作用、以及尋找工作的有效性。 E

2、xamples include minimum-wage laws, the market power of unions, the role of efficiency wages, and the effectiveness of job search.第2頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)失業(yè)與通貨膨脹失業(yè)與通貨膨脹Unemployment and Inflationu通貨膨脹主要取決于由美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)控制的貨幣量增長(zhǎng)。 The inflation rate depends primarily on growth in the quantity of money, controlled by the Fed.u把通貨

3、膨脹和失業(yè)率加在一起得出了一個(gè)遺憾指數(shù)，用來(lái)衡量經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況是否正常。 The misery index, one measure of the “health” of the economy, adds together the inflation rate and unemployment rate.第3頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)失業(yè)與通貨膨脹失業(yè)與通貨膨脹Unemployment and Inflationu社會(huì)面臨著通貨膨脹和失業(yè)之間的短期權(quán)衡取舍。 Society faces a short-run tradeoff between unemployment and inflation.u如果決策者擴(kuò)

4、大總需求，則可以減少失業(yè)，但這以更高的通貨膨脹為代價(jià)。 If policymakers expand aggregate demand, they can lower unemployment, but only at the cost of higher inflation.u如果決策者緊縮總需求，則可以降低通貨膨脹，但這以暫時(shí)的高失業(yè)作為代價(jià)。 If they contract aggregate demand, they can lower inflation, but at the cost of temporarily higher unemployment.第4頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)菲利普斯

5、曲線菲利普斯曲線The Phillips Curve菲利普斯曲線描述了通貨膨脹與失業(yè)之間的短期關(guān)系。The Phillips curve illustrates the short-run relationship between inflation and unemployment.第5頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)菲利普斯曲線菲利普斯曲線The Phillips Curve.失業(yè)率失業(yè)率 （百分比）（百分比）0通貨膨脹率通貨膨脹率 (年百分比年百分比)4B6A72菲利普斯曲線菲利普斯曲線第6頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)總需求、總供給與菲利普斯曲線總需求、總供給與菲利普斯曲線Aggregate Demand, Aggrega

6、te Supply, and the Phillips Curveu菲利普斯曲線簡(jiǎn)單地說(shuō)明了，短期中出現(xiàn)的通貨膨脹與失業(yè)的結(jié)合是由于總需求曲線的移動(dòng)使經(jīng)濟(jì)沿著短期總供給曲線變動(dòng)。 The Phillips curve shows the short-run combinations of unemployment and inflation that arise as shifts in the aggregate demand curve move the economy along the short-run aggregate supply curve.第7頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)總需求、總供給與菲

7、利普斯曲線總需求、總供給與菲利普斯曲線Aggregate Demand, Aggregate Supply, and the Phillips Curveu產(chǎn)品與勞務(wù)的總需求越大，經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)量越多，總物價(jià)水平就越高。 The greater the aggregate demand for goods and services, the greater is the economys output, and the higher is the overall price level.u較高的產(chǎn)量水平意味著較低的失業(yè)水平。 A higher level of output results in a

8、lower level of unemployment.第8頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)菲利普斯曲線如何和總需求與總供給模型相關(guān)菲利普斯曲線如何和總需求與總供給模型相關(guān)How the Phillips Curve is Related to the Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply.Phillips curve0 (b) 菲利普斯曲線菲利普斯曲線通貨膨脹率通貨膨脹率 (年百分比年百分比)失業(yè)率失業(yè)率 (百分比百分比)0(a) 總需求與總供給模型總需求與總供給模型物價(jià)水平物價(jià)水平低總需求高總需求B46(產(chǎn)量是產(chǎn)量是 8,000)A72(產(chǎn)量是產(chǎn)量是7,

9、500)A7,500102(失業(yè)率失業(yè)率 7%)B8,000106(失業(yè)率失業(yè)率47%)短期總供給第9頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)菲利普斯曲線的移動(dòng)：預(yù)期的作用菲利普斯曲線的移動(dòng)：預(yù)期的作用Shifts in the Phillips Curve: The Role of Expectations菲利普斯曲線看來(lái)給決策者提供了一個(gè)可能的通貨膨脹與失業(yè)結(jié)果的菜單。The Phillips curve seems to offer policymakers a menu of possible inflation and unemployment outcomes.第10頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)長(zhǎng)期菲利普斯曲線長(zhǎng)期菲利普斯曲

10、線The Long-Run Phillips Curveu60年代，弗里德曼菲爾普斯提出，在長(zhǎng)期中，通貨膨脹與失業(yè)是不相關(guān)的。 In the 1960s, Friedman and Phelps concluded that inflation and unemployment are unrelated in the long run.u因此，長(zhǎng)期菲利普斯曲線是在自然失業(yè)率的水平下的一條垂線。 As a result, the long-run Phillips curve is vertical at the natural rate of unemployment.u貨幣政策在短期內(nèi)有效

11、，但在長(zhǎng)期中是無(wú)效的。 Monetary policy could be effective in the short run but not in the long run.第11頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)長(zhǎng)期菲利普斯曲線長(zhǎng)期菲利普斯曲線The Long-Run Phillips CurveUnemployment Rate0自然失業(yè)率自然失業(yè)率Inflation RateLong-run Phillips curveBHigh inflation 1. 當(dāng)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)提高貨幣供給的增長(zhǎng)率時(shí)，通貨膨脹率上升2. 但長(zhǎng)期中失業(yè)仍維持在其自然率水平。ALow inflation 第12頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)自然失業(yè)率長(zhǎng)期菲利

12、普斯曲線長(zhǎng)期菲利普斯曲線0(b) 菲利普斯曲線菲利普斯曲線Inflation RateA自然產(chǎn)量率0P1總需求總需求, AD1 長(zhǎng)期總供給長(zhǎng)期總供給(a) 總需求與總供給模型總需求與總供給模型 Price Level4. 但產(chǎn)量與失業(yè)仍維持其自然率水平長(zhǎng)期菲利普斯曲線如何和總需求與總供給模型相關(guān)長(zhǎng)期菲利普斯曲線如何和總需求與總供給模型相關(guān)How the Phillips Curve is Related to the Model of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply.P22. 物價(jià)水平上升Quantity of OutputUnemploy-ment

13、 Rate 1. 貨幣供給增加提高了總需求AD2B3. 通貨膨脹率也上升第13頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)預(yù)期與短期菲利普斯曲線預(yù)期與短期菲利普斯曲線Expectations and the Short-Run Phillips Curve預(yù)期通貨膨脹衡量人們預(yù)期物價(jià)總水平的變動(dòng)幅度。Expected inflation measures how much people expect the overall price level to change.第14頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)預(yù)期與短期菲利普斯曲線預(yù)期與短期菲利普斯曲線Expectations and the Short-Run Phillips Curveu在長(zhǎng)期

14、中，預(yù)期的通貨膨脹根據(jù)實(shí)際通貨膨脹做調(diào)整。 In the long run, expected inflation adjusts to changes in actual inflation.u美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)預(yù)期到的通貨膨脹的能力只在短期中存在。 The Feds ability to create unexpected inflation exists only in the short run.u一旦人們預(yù)期到通貨膨脹，使失業(yè)低于自然失業(yè)率的唯一辦法是讓實(shí)際通貨膨脹高于預(yù)期通貨膨脹率。 Once people anticipate inflation, the only way to get u

15、nemployment below the natural rate is for actual inflation to be above the anticipated rate.第15頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)預(yù)期與短期菲利普斯曲線預(yù)期與短期菲利普斯曲線Expectations and the Short-Run Phillips Curve失業(yè)率失業(yè)率=自然失業(yè)率自然失業(yè)率 實(shí)際實(shí)際 預(yù)期預(yù)期通貨膨脹通貨膨脹 通貨膨脹通貨膨脹-()a-該等式表明，失業(yè)率與自然失業(yè)率、實(shí)際通貨膨該等式表明，失業(yè)率與自然失業(yè)率、實(shí)際通貨膨脹、預(yù)期通貨膨脹相關(guān)。脹、預(yù)期通貨膨脹相關(guān)。This equation relat

16、es the unemployment rate to the natural rate of unemployment, actual inflation, and expected inflation.第16頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)預(yù)期的通貨膨脹如何使短期菲利普斯曲線移動(dòng)預(yù)期的通貨膨脹如何使短期菲利普斯曲線移動(dòng)How Expected Inflation Shifts the Short-Run Phillips CurveUnemployment Rate0自然失業(yè)率自然失業(yè)率Inflation RateCB長(zhǎng)期菲利普斯曲線A高預(yù)期通貨膨脹時(shí)的短期菲利普斯曲線低預(yù)期通貨膨脹時(shí)的短期菲利普斯曲線1.

17、擴(kuò)張性政策使經(jīng)濟(jì)沿著短期菲利普斯曲線向上移動(dòng)2. 但在長(zhǎng)期中，預(yù)期的通貨膨脹上升，而且短期菲利普斯曲線向右移動(dòng).第17頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)自然率假說(shuō)自然率假說(shuō)The Natural-Rate Hypothesisu無(wú)論通貨膨脹率如何，失業(yè)最終要回到其自然率，這稱之為自然率假說(shuō)。 The view that unemployment eventually returns to its natural rate, regardless of the rate of inflation, is called the natural-rate hypothesis.u歷史的觀察支持了這種假說(shuō)。 Histori

18、cal observations support the natural-rate hypothesis.第18頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)自然率假說(shuō)的自然試驗(yàn)自然率假說(shuō)的自然試驗(yàn)The Natural Experiment for the Natural Rate Hypothesisu70年代初期，穩(wěn)定的菲利普斯曲線被打破了。 The concept of a stable Phillips curve broke down in the in the early 70s.u整個(gè)70與80年代，經(jīng)濟(jì)同時(shí)經(jīng)歷了高通貨膨脹與高失業(yè)。 During the 70s and 80s, the economy ex

19、perienced high inflation and high unemployment simultaneously.第19頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)60年代的菲利普斯曲線年代的菲利普斯曲線The Phillips Curve in the 1960s.Unemployment Rate (percent)Inflation Rate(percent per year)0123456789102468101968196619611962196319671965 1964第20頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)菲利普斯曲線的破滅菲利普斯曲線的破滅The Breakdown of the Phillips Curve.Unem

20、ployment Rate (percent)Inflation Rate(percent per year)01234567891024681019731971196919701968196619611962196319671965 19641972第21頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)Shifts in the Phillips Curve: The Role of Supply ShocksuHistorical events have shown that the short-run Phillips curve can shift due to changes in expectations. 第22頁(yè)

21、/共44頁(yè)菲利普斯曲線的移動(dòng)：供給沖擊的作用菲利普斯曲線的移動(dòng)：供給沖擊的作用Shifts in the Phillips Curve: The Role of Supply Shocksu因?yàn)榭偣┙o的沖擊，短期菲利普斯曲線也會(huì)發(fā)生移動(dòng)。 The short-run Phillips curve also shifts because of shocks to aggregate supply. u總供給的不利移動(dòng)惡化了失業(yè)與通貨膨脹的短期均衡取舍。 Major adverse changes in aggregate supply can worsen the short-run trade

22、off between unemployment and inflation.u不利的供給沖擊使決策者在通貨膨脹與失業(yè)之間的權(quán)衡取舍更加困難。 An adverse supply shock gives policymakers a less favorable tradeoff between inflation and unemployment.第23頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)菲利普斯曲線的移動(dòng)：供給沖擊的作用菲利普斯曲線的移動(dòng)：供給沖擊的作用Shifts in the Phillips Curve: The Role of Supply Shocksu供給沖擊是直接影響企業(yè)的生產(chǎn)成本，從而影響他們收取

23、的價(jià)格的事件。 A supply shock is an event that directly affects firms costs of production and thus the prices they charge. u它使經(jīng)濟(jì)的總供給曲線移動(dòng)。 It shifts the economys aggregate supply curve. u因此，也使菲利普斯曲線移動(dòng)。 and as a result, the Phillips curve.第24頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)AS21. 總供給的不利移動(dòng)總供給的不利沖擊總供給的不利沖擊An Adverse Shock to Aggregate S

24、upplyQuantity of Output0Price LevelP1總需求總需求(a) 總供給與總需求模型總供給與總需求模型Unemployment Rate0(b) 菲利普斯曲線菲利普斯曲線AInflation Rate菲利普斯曲線菲利普斯曲線, PC1 總供給總供給 AS1AY1P23. 提高了物價(jià)水平B2. 降低了產(chǎn)量Y2B4. 這給決策者一種失業(yè)與通貨膨脹之間不利的權(quán)衡取舍PC2 第25頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)總供給的不利沖擊總供給的不利沖擊An Adverse Shock to Aggregate Supplyu70年代，當(dāng)歐佩克削減了產(chǎn)量并提高石油市場(chǎng)價(jià)格時(shí)，決策者面臨兩種選擇： In

25、the 1970s, policymakers faced two choices when OPEC cut output and raised worldwide prices of petroleum.u通過(guò)擴(kuò)大總需求，促使通貨膨脹，來(lái)降低失業(yè) Fight the unemployment battle by expanding aggregate demand and accelerate inflation.u通過(guò)緊縮總需求，承受更高的失業(yè)，來(lái)降低通貨膨脹。 Fight inflation by contracting aggregate demand and endure even

26、 higher unemployment.第26頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)Inflation Rate(percent per year)UnemploymentRate (percent)01234567891024681070年代的供給沖擊年代的供給沖擊The Supply Shocks of the 1970s.1972197519811976197819791980197319741977第27頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)降低通貨膨脹的代價(jià)降低通貨膨脹的代價(jià)The Cost of Reducing Inflationu為了降低通貨膨脹率，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)實(shí)行了緊縮性貨幣政策。 To reduce inflation, the

27、 Fed has to pursue contractionary monetary policy. u當(dāng)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)放慢貨幣增長(zhǎng)率時(shí)，它就緊縮了總需求。 When the Fed slows the rate of money growth, it contracts aggregate demand.u這又減少了企業(yè)生產(chǎn)的物品與勞務(wù)量。 This reduces the quantity of goods and services that firms produce.u這也導(dǎo)致了失業(yè)的增加。 This leads to a rise in unemployment.第28頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)A高預(yù)期通

28、貨膨脹時(shí)的短期菲利普斯曲線1. 緊縮性貨幣政策使經(jīng)濟(jì)沿著短期菲利普斯曲線向下移動(dòng)。UnemploymentRate0Natural rate ofunemploymentInflationRate長(zhǎng)期菲利長(zhǎng)期菲利 普斯曲線普斯曲線CB低預(yù)期通貨膨脹時(shí)的短期菲利普斯曲線2. 但在長(zhǎng)期中，預(yù)期的通貨膨脹下降，而且短期菲利普斯曲線向左移動(dòng)。短期與長(zhǎng)期中的反通貨膨脹政策短期與長(zhǎng)期中的反通貨膨脹政策Disinflationary Monetary Policy in the Short Run and the Long Run.第29頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)降低通貨膨脹的代價(jià)降低通貨膨脹的代價(jià)The Cost of

29、 Reducing Inflationu為了降低通貨膨脹，一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)必須忍受一個(gè)高失業(yè)與低產(chǎn)量的時(shí)期。 To reduce inflation, an economy must endure a period of high unemployment and low output.u當(dāng)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)改善通貨膨脹時(shí)，經(jīng)濟(jì)沿短期菲利普斯曲線向下移動(dòng)。 When the Fed combats inflation, the economy moves down the short-run Phillips curve.u經(jīng)濟(jì)經(jīng)歷著更低的通貨膨脹，但以更高的失業(yè)為代價(jià)。The economy experienc

30、es lower inflation but at the cost of higher unemployment.第30頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)降低通貨膨脹的代價(jià)降低通貨膨脹的代價(jià)The Cost of Reducing Inflationu犧牲率時(shí)在通貨膨脹每下降1的過(guò)程中每年失去的產(chǎn)量的百分比數(shù)量。 The sacrifice ratio is the number of percentage points of annual output that is lost in the process of reducing inflation by one percentage point.u典型的犧牲

31、率估算是5。 An estimate of the sacrifice ratio is five.u為了使10的通貨膨脹率降低到4，要求每年?duì)奚?0的產(chǎn)量。 To reduce inflation from about 10% in 1979-1981 to 4% would have required an estimated sacrifice of 30% of annual output!第31頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)理性預(yù)期理性預(yù)期Rational Expectations根據(jù)理性預(yù)期理論，當(dāng)人們?cè)陬A(yù)期未來(lái)時(shí)，他們可以最好地應(yīng)用他們所擁有的全部信息，包括關(guān)于政府政策的信息。The theory

32、 of rational expectations suggests that people optimally use all the information they have, including information about government policies, when forecasting the future.第32頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)理性預(yù)期理性預(yù)期Rational Expectationsu預(yù)期通貨膨脹解釋了為什么在短期而不是長(zhǎng)期中存在著通貨膨脹與失業(yè)之間的權(quán)衡。 Expected inflation explains why there is a tradeoff be

33、tween inflation and unemployment in the short run but not in the long run.u短期權(quán)衡取舍消失的速度取決于預(yù)期調(diào)整的速度。 How quickly the short-run tradeoff disappears depends on how quickly expectations adjust.第33頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)理性預(yù)期理性預(yù)期Rational Expectationsu理性預(yù)期理論表明，犧牲率可能比估算的要小的多。 The theory of rational expectations suggests that

34、the sacrifice-ratio could be much smaller than estimated.第34頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)沃爾克的反通貨膨脹沃爾克的反通貨膨脹The Volcker Disinflationu在70年代保羅.沃爾克作為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席時(shí)，通貨膨脹已經(jīng)美國(guó)要解決的最重要的問(wèn)題之一。 When Paul Volcker was Fed chairman in the 1970s, inflation was widely viewed as one of the nations foremost problems.u沃爾克成功的使通貨膨脹率從10降低到4，但卻以高失業(yè)作為代價(jià)（

35、1983年大約是10）。Volcker succeeded in reducing inflation (from 10% to 4%), but at the cost of high employment (about 10% in 1983).第35頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)UnemploymentRate (percent)Inflation Rate(percent per year)012345678910246810沃爾克的反通貨膨脹沃爾克的反通貨膨脹The Volcker Disinflation.197919801983198119821984198619871985ABC第36頁(yè)/共44

36、頁(yè)格林斯潘時(shí)代格林斯潘時(shí)代The Greenspan Erau艾倫.格林斯潘作為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)出席的時(shí)期，開(kāi)始了有利的供給沖擊。 Alan Greenspans term as Fed chairman began with a favorable supply shock. u1986年，歐佩克成員國(guó)放棄了他們限制供給的協(xié)議。 In 1986, OPEC members abandoned their agreement to restrict supply.u這使得通過(guò)膨脹下降與失業(yè)減少。 This led to falling inflation and falling unemployment

37、.第37頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)UnemploymentRate (percent)0123456789100246810Inflation Rate(percent per year)格林斯潘時(shí)代格林斯潘時(shí)代The Greenspan Era.198419911985199219931986199419881987199519891990第38頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)格林斯潘時(shí)代格林斯潘時(shí)代The Greenspan Erau最近幾年的通貨膨脹與失業(yè)的波動(dòng)已經(jīng)變小了，這歸功于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的行動(dòng)。 Fluctuations in inflation and unemployment in recent years have been relatively small due to the Feds actions.第39頁(yè)/共44頁(yè)總結(jié)總結(jié)Summaryu菲利普斯曲線描述了通貨膨脹和失業(yè)之間的負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系。 The Phillips curve describes a negative relationship between inflation and