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1、The Changing World Network of Trade in Textiles and ApparelThomas Vollrath,Mark Gehlhar,Stephen MacDonaldU.S.A./amberwavesThomas Vollrath, Mark Gehlhar, Stephen MacDonald, The structure of the global textile market is f
2、undamentally changing in response to policy reforms stemming from the 1995 Uruguay Round (UR) of the World Trade Organization. The UR instituted agreements to reduce tariffs on textile and apparel products to levels closer to those found elsewhere in manufacturing. It also established the Agreement
3、on Textiles and Clothing (ATC), which stipulates that all bilateral import quotas, sanctioned under the 1974 Multi-Fiber Arrangement (MFA), will be eliminated by 2005.Full implementation of the UR reforms will bring textiles and apparel into greater conformity with internationally accepted rules of
4、trade. Collectively, these reforms should stimulate growth in textile trade, which already outpaces trade in other sectors of the world economy. For example, trade in textiles and apparel in the last decade nearly doubled to $334 billion. These reforms also promise to significantly alter the locatio
5、n of production and the direction of fiber and textile trade.The Bilateral Fiber and Textile Trade database, available on the ERS website (/data/fibertextiletrade/), enables analysts to examine the evolving structure of trade among partners and across commodities and products in the
6、global market. This database, derived from UN Comtrade data, contains information about commodity and product trade flows among exporting and importing countries/regions between 1992 and 2002.The global network of trade in textiles and apparel has shifted significantly, with many low-income countrie
7、s benefiting from higher sales within the past decade. Unlike agricultural production, which depends on the availability of natural resources, the location of textile and, particularly, apparel production is highly mobile and extremely responsive to wage differentials. Textile and apparel production
8、 requires substantial labor, is not technologically demanding, and provides employment opportunities for the relatively unskilled laborers who transfer out of subsistence agriculture. It introduces workers to manufacturing and provides them with training opportunities in new and productivity-enhanci
9、ng activities.Competition from low-cost suppliers in developing countries has put considerable pressure on established exporters of textiles and apparel, particularly those in the newly industrialized countries (NIC) of Asia (Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan). The Asian-NIC share
10、 of the global textile and apparel market halved, falling from 24 to 12 percent between 1992 and 2002. In contrast, the market share of developing-country suppliers, excluding the Asian NICs, increased 15 percentage points to 64 percent during this period. China was especially successful, raising it
11、s share of the global market to 25 percent in 2002, up 4 percentage points from 1992. Such competitive pressures from low-cost, developing-country suppliers are likely to accelerate following the elimination of MFA quotas by 2005.Textile and apparel trade is strongly influenced by established networ
12、ks and geographical proximity. Together, Africa, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe dominate the EU market because of preferential trading agreements and the economics of geographical location. In contrast, the most important suppliers to the United States are Latin America, China, and the Asian NI
13、Cs. With improved market access from the ATC, low-income Asian producers are likely to vie more effectively with these traditional suppliers for foreign market shares in the U.S. and EU markets.The UR reforms are expected to reduce prices for textiles and apparel, increasing worldwide demand for pro
14、ducts throughout the fiber-to-clothing supply chain. Demand for textile and apparel imports is already rising rapidly among the industrialized countries (IC). This demand is particularly strong among importers using MFA quotas (Canada, EU, Norway, and the United States). As consumer prices fall due
15、to ATC reforms, imports of clothing, bed linen, carpets, and other products are likely to continue to increase. Envisioned shifts in supply and demand for textile and apparel will enhance labor productivity in the developing countries, leading to income growth and greater global demand for agricultu
16、ral products, including food and raw fibers, such as cotton.不斷變化的世界紡織品服裝貿(mào)易格局托馬斯·瓦拉斯,馬克·葛赫哈,史蒂芬·麥克通納德美國(guó)/amberwaves托馬斯·瓦拉斯,馬克·葛赫哈, 史蒂芬·麥克通納德,全球紡織品市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)是根據(jù)1995年世界貿(mào)易組織舉行的烏拉圭回合的政策改革而發(fā)生著根本性的變化。烏拉圭
17、回合提議將紡織品和服裝產(chǎn)品的關(guān)稅降低到與這些生產(chǎn)國(guó)的關(guān)稅比較接近的水平。它同樣確立了紡織品與服裝協(xié)定(ATC),ATC是保證在1974年多種纖維協(xié)定(MFA)下制定的所有的雙邊進(jìn)口配額將會(huì)在2005年被取消。烏拉圭回合改革的全部實(shí)現(xiàn)將使得紡織品和服裝與國(guó)際上公認(rèn)的貿(mào)易規(guī)則更加地一致。總的來說,這些改革應(yīng)該促進(jìn)紡織品貿(mào)易的增長(zhǎng),這種增長(zhǎng)會(huì)超過世界經(jīng)濟(jì)體中其它部門貿(mào)易的增長(zhǎng)。譬如,紡織品和服裝貿(mào)易在過去的十年中幾乎翻了一倍達(dá)到3340億美元。這些改革同樣預(yù)示著纖維和紡織品貿(mào)易的生產(chǎn)地點(diǎn)和方向?qū)?huì)發(fā)生重大改變。ERS網(wǎng)站(/data/fibertextiletrade
18、/)提供的雙邊纖維和紡織品貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)庫,能使分析家了解全球市場(chǎng)中合作伙伴之間和跨商品和產(chǎn)品之間正在演進(jìn)的貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)。這個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)庫,來源于聯(lián)合國(guó)的Comtrade數(shù)據(jù),它包括出口和進(jìn)口國(guó)家/地區(qū)在1992年到2002年之間的有關(guān)商品和產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易流的信息。紡織品和服裝貿(mào)易的全球格局已經(jīng)發(fā)生了重大的變化,同時(shí)在過去的十年間許多低收入國(guó)家從更大的貿(mào)易銷售中獲利。與依賴自然資源稟賦的農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)品不同,紡織品生產(chǎn)的地點(diǎn),特別是,服裝的生產(chǎn)地點(diǎn)由于工資的差異在不斷地轉(zhuǎn)移。紡織品和服裝的生產(chǎn)需要大量的勞動(dòng)力,這種生產(chǎn)并不是技術(shù)性的生產(chǎn)需求,而是為大量從農(nóng)業(yè)中轉(zhuǎn)移出來的相對(duì)缺乏技術(shù)能力的勞動(dòng)者提供就業(yè)的機(jī)會(huì)。它使工人們學(xué)會(huì)生產(chǎn)制造,并且提供給他們?cè)谛碌牟⑶疑a(chǎn)效率不斷提高的領(lǐng)域內(nèi)培訓(xùn)的機(jī)會(huì)。不斷變化的全球紡織品和服裝出口國(guó)格局來自發(fā)展中國(guó)家低成本供給的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)已經(jīng)給原有的紡織品和服裝的出口國(guó)施加了相當(dāng)大的壓力,特別是對(duì)于那些亞洲的新興工業(yè)化國(guó)家(香港、澳門、新加坡、韓國(guó)和臺(tái)灣)。亞洲新興工業(yè)化國(guó)家在全球紡織品和服裝市場(chǎng)所占的份額減少了一半,從1992年的24%下降到2002年的12
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