申萬(wàn)海外研究報(bào)告萬(wàn)醫(yī)藥1093hk-cspctt

1、SWS Research Co.99 East Nanjing Road, Shanghai | +86 21 2329 7818Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life | CompanyBringing China to the World26 June 2017OutperformDowngradeR&D improvementCSPC PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP (1093:HK)Market Data: June, 23Closing Price (HK$)Finanl sumnd valuation2015201612,369.042

2、017E14,049.382018E16,179.622019E18,527.7711.9613.9010,4304,02312.22/6.479,28272,4006,0541.14Revenue (HK$ m) YoY (%)Nete (HK$ m) YoY (%)EPS (HK$)Diluted EPS (HK$) ROE (%)Debt/asset (%) Dividend Yield (%) PE (x)PB (x)EV/Ebitda (x)11,393.73Price HSCEIHSCCI(HK$)4.001,665.2731.280.280.2819.0634.910.9242.

3、448.0224.728.562,100.8526.160.350.3520.7430.951.0033.936.9921.1613.592,719.4329.440.450.4523.1126.711.5026.636.1216.8415.163,399.0424.990.560.5624.6024.091.8821.305.2113.8814.514,063.3619.540.670.6724.9822.002.2417.824.4311.8552-k High/Low (HK$) Market Cap (US$m) Market Cap (HK$m) Shares Outstanding

4、 (m) Exchange Rate (Rmb-HK$)Price Performance Chart:80%60%40%20%0%-20%Note: Diluted EPS is calculated as if all outstanding convertible securities, such as convertible preferred shares, convertible debentures, stock options and warrants, were exercised.On 23 June, AlaMab, a subsidiary of CSPC, enter

5、edo license agreements with UT HealthSan Antonio. AlaMab has licensed in the exclusive patent rights and non-exclusivetechnology rightswo fields, namely, all human and animal therutic and diagnosticd diagnostic 4.25m anduse for breast cancer bone metastasis anuse for spinal cord injury. AlaMab agree

6、d to payCSPCUS$55.25m; license fees of US$2.75m and US$1.75m for these two fields respectively; andHang Seng China Ent Indexroyalties on net product sales and net serviales. We maain our diluted EPS forecastsSource: Bloombergof HK$0.45 in 17E (+27% YoY), and HK$0.56 in 18E (+25% YoY) and HK$0.67 in

7、19E (+20%YoY) and maain ourfrom BUY to Outperform.price of HK$13.90. With 16% upside, we downgrade the stockystJill WU A0230514080002 AXT645wu(+86) 21 23297269Strengthened R&D. UT Health San Antonio is one of the leading health science universitieshe US and rshe top 13% of all institutions worldwide

8、 receiving National Institutesof Health (NIH) funding. Leveraging the strong research and development (R&D) capabilityof UT Health San Antonio in biopharmaceuticals, CSPC will expand efficientlywhile traditionally the company has been focusing on chemical drugs.o this area,Related ReportsKeep the mo

9、mentum-CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093:HK)May 26,2017Fruitful pipeline. CSPC is amover in generic registration in overseas markets. To date,the company has received eightthe US Food and Drug Administration registration. Drugs with US ADNA approvals en potentially sell at premium priclopriority revie

10、w sals frompending US ANDAR&D acquisition-CSPC PharmaceuticalGroup (1093:HK)May 10,2017er approval pros in China andg generics. CSPCs applications forThe company does not hold any equities or derivatives of the listed companyd releasetablet receivednks to US ANDAhas alsohinmentionedhis report (“”),

11、but thenwe shall provide finan l advisory servi subject to the relevantregulations. Any affiliates may hold equities of the exceed 1 percent of ito the relevant laws and regula company may also provide inves bapprovals. In addition, dronedarone tablet and albumin-bound pabeen awarded priority review

12、 s the next 18 months.tStrong recovery of vitamin C business. Vitamin C prirose from Rmb27/kg in November2016 to Rmb70/kg in April 2017 and have remained at highs for the past three months. WeCompany fulfills its duty of disclosure withinits sphere of knowledge. The c contact complianrelevant disclo

13、sure materials or logybeve the price hike was because theernmens been strict ovollution controlrand large players like CSPC haveentionally lowered production volume to support pri.under disclosurecolumn for further information. The c nts shall have a comprehensive understandingMaain long-termitive.

14、We like CSPC as we see solid earnings grownd potentialogrel tablet, of HK$0.45launch of blockbusters such as albumin-bound pametformin sustained release tablet, etc. We maaxel injection, cloof the disclosure and di last page.er upon thein 17E (+27% YoY), and HK$0.56 in 18E (+25% YoY) and HK$0.67 in

15、19E (+20% YoY) andmaain ourprice of HK$13.9. We downgrade the stock to Outperform as we see16% upside from the share price.16-0516-0616-0716-0816-0916-1016-1116-1217-0117-0217-0317-0417-0526 June 2017Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life | Company Research投資要點(diǎn)：6 月 23 日，石藥可協(xié)議。AlaMab包括：1）用于 類(lèi)及動(dòng)物治療及下屬子

16、公司AlaMab 與 UT Health San Antonio（方）簽訂許將獲得兩個(gè)相關(guān)領(lǐng)域的專利權(quán)獨(dú)家骨轉(zhuǎn)移的所有人類(lèi)及動(dòng)物治療及和技術(shù)使用權(quán)的非獨(dú)家，；2）用于脊髓損傷的所有人。AlaMab 同意向方支付(i)里程碑費(fèi)用分別為 5,425 萬(wàn)及5,525 萬(wàn)（完成相關(guān)里程碑事件后支付）；(ii)費(fèi)分別為 275 萬(wàn)及 175 萬(wàn)；以及(iii)產(chǎn)品銷(xiāo)售凈額及服務(wù)銷(xiāo)售凈額的專利權(quán)使用費(fèi)。維持 17/18/19 年稀釋每股分別為 0.45 港幣，0.56 港幣和 0.67 港幣，分別同比增長(zhǎng) 27%/25%/20%。維持目標(biāo)價(jià) 13.9 港幣，對(duì)應(yīng) 16%的上漲空間，下調(diào)至增持。增強(qiáng)研發(fā)實(shí)力

17、。UT Health San Antonio 是領(lǐng)先的健康科技大學(xué)之一。以獲得國(guó)立衛(wèi)生的基金支持規(guī)模來(lái)看，UT Health San Antonio 在全球研究機(jī)構(gòu)當(dāng)中排名13%。借助 UT Health San Antonio 在生物制藥研發(fā)領(lǐng)域的優(yōu)勢(shì)，公司能夠迅速進(jìn)入生物制藥領(lǐng)域，而此前石藥的業(yè)務(wù)主要集中在化藥領(lǐng)域。在研品種有望開(kāi)花結(jié)果。公司藥企當(dāng)中進(jìn)行仿制藥海外的先行者。公司目前FDA 的新藥簡(jiǎn)略有 21 個(gè)產(chǎn)品在。通過(guò)的新藥簡(jiǎn)略申請(qǐng)，并且 8 個(gè)產(chǎn)品已經(jīng)獲得新藥簡(jiǎn)略的產(chǎn)品在國(guó)內(nèi)上市，通?？梢韵碛袃?yōu)先審評(píng)資格，并且在上市后或?qū)⑾鄬?duì)于其他普通仿制藥有一定價(jià)格優(yōu)勢(shì)。公司已獲得FDA 的新藥簡(jiǎn)

18、略注冊(cè)三個(gè)品種，包括硫酸氫氯吡片，鹽酸二甲雙胍片以及鹽酸二甲雙胍緩釋片，已經(jīng)被 CFDA 納入優(yōu)先審評(píng)。此外，鹽酸決奈達(dá)隆片和注射用白蛋白結(jié)合型紫杉醇也享有優(yōu)先審評(píng)資格。認(rèn)為這些在研品種有望于未來(lái) 18 個(gè)月內(nèi)獲批上市。維生素 C 業(yè)務(wù)強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇。注意到維生素 C 的價(jià)格自去年 11 月開(kāi)始暴漲，從 27 元/公斤上漲至今年 4 月的 70 元/公斤。并且最近 3 個(gè)月內(nèi)持續(xù)維持在 70 元/公斤的水平。價(jià)格上漲或許是由于加強(qiáng)對(duì)環(huán)境污染的，以及大型維生素 C 廠商，例如，石藥，通過(guò)降低供應(yīng)以售價(jià)。長(zhǎng)期看好公司?？春霉痉€(wěn)健的增長(zhǎng)以及潛在品種的上市前景，例如，注射用白蛋白結(jié)合型紫杉醇，硫酸氫氯吡片

19、，鹽酸二甲雙胍緩釋片等。維持17/18/19 年的每股27%/25%/20%。分別為 0.45 港幣，0.56 港幣，0.67 港幣不變，分別同比增長(zhǎng)維持目標(biāo)價(jià)13.9 港幣，對(duì)應(yīng)16%的上漲空間，下調(diào)至增持。Please refer to the last page for important disclosuresPage 126 June 2017Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life | Company ResearchAPPENDIXConsolidatede SementCost of Sales(6,173)(6,060)(6,182)(6,7

20、95)(7,633)Othere87107140162185EBITDA2,7723,2374,0694,9365,783Finance Costs(56)(42)(36)(29)(22)e tax expense(432)(522)(684)(855)(1,022)Profit for the year1,6652,1012,7193,3994,063Source: Company data, SWS ResearchConsolidated Cash Flow SementPlus：Depr. and amortisation605588613633651Losses from inves

21、tments00000Others(478)(567)(720)(884)(1,044)CX(743)(766)(800)00CF from investing activities(723)(1,332)(800)(800)(800)Net change in liabilities263(283)(200)(200)(200)Other CF from financing activitiesCF from financing activities(265)(592)481(452)0(1,288)0(1,560)0(1,825)FCFF1,5512,1681,9063,6564,303S

22、ource: Company data, SWS ResearchPlease refer to the last page for important disclosuresPage 2FCFE1,7571,8441,6703,4264,080Net cash flow9341,1325821,2671,655Dividend anderest paid(591)(650)(1,088)(1,360)(1,625)Equity financing00000Other CF from investing activities19(566)0(800)(800)CF from operating

23、 activities2,2492,9162,6703,6264,280Change in working capital(46)219(678)(426)(458)Finance cost5642362922(HK$m)201520162017E2018E2019EProfit before taxation2,1122,6353,4204,2745,110Minorityerests(14)(12)(16)(21)(25)Profit before tax2,1122,6353,4204,2745,110EBIT2,1662,6493,4564,3045,132Selling/Genera

24、l/Admin. Expenses(2,802)(3,342)(3,990)(4,611)(5,243)Gross Profit5,2216,3097,8689,38410,894(HK$m)201520162017E2018E2019ERevenue11,39412,36914,04916,18018,52826 June 2017Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life | Company ResearchConsolidated BalanheetBbalanand cash2,2993,2353,8175,0836,739Inventories1,81

25、91,9331,9482,1042,342Long-term investment28172172172172angible and other assets722746710676644Current Liabilities3,4844,0853,8303,9274,131Trade and othayables2,4892,9382,8793,1653,555Long-term liabilities1,243484484484484Minorityerests7584100121145Share Capital9,83510,57010,57010,57010,570Total Equi

26、ty8,81310,19111,83913,89916,362Source: Company data, SWS ResearchPlease refer to the last page for important disclosuresPage 3Total Liabilities and equity13,54014,76016,15418,31020,977Reserves(1,097)(462)1,1703,2095,647Shareholder Equity8,73810,10811,73913,77916,217Total Liabilities4,7274,5694,3154,

27、4114,615Other current liabilities544249253264278Borrowings452898698498298Total Assets13,54014,76016,15418,31020,977PP&E5,1435,4155,6385,8406,021Other current assets1,6511,4251,5601,7762,014Trade and other receivables1,8781,8352,3092,6603,046(HK$m)201520162017E2018E2019ECurrent Assets7,6488,4289,6341

28、1,62314,14026 June 2017Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life | Company ResearchKey Finanl RatiosEarnings per share0.280.350.450.560.67Operating CF per share0.380.490.440.600.71Net assets per share1.491.711.962.302.70ROIC15.8117.5420.2922.0522.78Gross profit margin45.8251.0056.0058.0058.80EBIT Margin

29、19.0121.4224.6026.6027.70Growth rate of Profit(YoY)31.2826.1629.4424.9919.54Turnover rate of net assets1.261.13Effective tax rate (%)20.4920.0220.0020.0020.00Valuation Ratios (X)P/B8.026.93Source: Company data, SWS ResearchPlease refer to the last page for important disclosur

30、esPage 4EV/Sale6.015.544.884.233.70P/E42.4433.9326.6321.3017.82Dividend yield (%)0.921.001.501.882.24Turnover rate of total assets0.840.840.870.880.88Debt-to-asset ratio34.9130.9526.7124.0922.00Growth rate of Revenue(YoY)4.008.5613.5915.1614.51EBITDA Margin24.3326.1728.9630.5131.21ROE19.0620.7423.11

31、24.6024.98Key Operating Ratios(%)Dividend per share80.220.27Diluted EPS0.280.350.450.560.67201520162017E2018E2019ERatios per share (HK$)26 June 2017Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life | Company ResearchInformation Disclosure：The views expressedhis report accura y reflect theal views of

32、theyst. Theyst declarest neither he/she nor his/her asso te serves as anofficer of nor has any finan lerests in relation to the listed corporation reviewed by theyst. None of the listed corporations reviewed or any third partyhas provided or agreed to provide any compensation or other benefits in co

33、nnection with this report to any of theyst, the Company or the groupcompany(ies). A group company(ies) of the Company confirmt they, whether individually or as a group (i) are not involved in any market making activities forany of the listed corporation reviewed; or (ii) do nove any individual emplo

34、yed by or asso ted winy group company(ies) of the Company serving as anofficer of any of the listed corporation reviewed; or (iii) do nove any finan lerest in relation to the listed corporation reviewed or (iv) do not, presently orwithhe last 12 months, have any investment bing relationship with the

35、 listed corporation reviewed.Undertakings of theystI (We) am (are) conferred the Profesal Quality of Securities Investment Consulting Industry by the Securities Asso tion of China and have registered as theSecuritiesyst. I hereby ie this report independently and objectively with due diligence, profe

36、sal and prudent researethods and only legitimateinformation is usedhis report. I am also responsible for the content and opinions of this report. I have never been, am not, and will not be compensated directlyor indirectly in any form for the specificDisclosure with respect to the Companymendations

37、or opinions herein.The company is a subsidiary of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities. The company is a qualified securities investment consulting institute approved by China SecuritiesRegulatory Commiswith the code number ZX0065.Releasing securities research reports is the basic form of the securities inve

38、stment consulting servi. The company mayyze the values or market trends ofsecurities and related products or other relevant affecting factors, provide investmentsecurities research reports solely to its c nts.ysis advice on securities valuation/ investment rating, etc. by iingThe Company fulfills it

39、s duty of disclosure within its sphere of knowledge. The c nts may contact complian for the relevant disclosurematerials or logo for theysts qualifications，the arrangement of the quiet period and the affiliates shareholdings.roduction of Share Investment RatingSecurity Investment Rating：When measuri

40、ng the difference bet define the terms as follows:n the markup of the security andt of the markets benark within six months after the release of this report, weTrading BUY: Share price performance is expected to generate moren 20% upside over a 6-month period.BUY: Share price performance is expected

41、 to generate moren 20% upside over a 12-month period.Outperform: Share price performance is expected to generate betn 10-20% upside over a 12-month period.Hold: Share price performance is expected to generate betn 10% downside to 10% upside over a 12-month period.Underform: Share price performance i

42、s expected to generate betn 10-20% downside over a 12-month period.SELL: Share price performance is expected to generate moreIndustry Investment Rating:n 20% downside over a 12-month period.When measuring the difference betwe define the terms as follows: Overweight：Industry performs bettern the mark

43、up of the industry index andt of the markets benark within six months after the release of the report,nt of the whole market；Equal weight： Industry performs about the same ast of the whole market；Underweight：Industry performs worsent of the whole market.We would like to remind yout different securit

44、y research institutions adopt different rating terminologies and rating standards. We adopt the relative ratingmethod tomend the relative weightings of investment. The c nts decis to buy or sell securities shall be based on their actual situation, such as theirportfolio structures and other nesary f

45、actors. The c nts shall read through the whole report so as to obtahe complete opinions and information and shallnot rely solely on the investment ratings to reach aat our salesnel if you areerested. The Company employs its own industry classification system. The industry classification is available

46、HSCEI is the benark employedhis report.er：DiThis report is to be used solely by the c nts of SWS Research Co.,. ( subsidiary of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, hereinafter referred to as the “Company”).The Company will not deem any otherson as its c nt notwithstanding his receipt of this report.This re

47、port is based on public information, however, the authenticity, accuracy or completeness of such information is not warranted by the Company. The materials,tools, opinions and speculations contained herein are for the c nts reference only, and are not to be regarded or deemed as an invi ion for the

48、sale or purchase of any security or other investment instruments.The c nts understandt the text message reminder andephonemendation are no moren a brief communication of the research opinions, whichare subject to the complete report released on the Companys website (http:/w). The c nts may ask for f

49、ollow-up explanations if they sowish.The materials, opinions and estimates contained herein only reflect the judgment of the Company on the day this report is released. The pri, values andinvestment returns of the securities or investment instruments referred to hereinconsistent with the materials,

50、opinions and estimates contained herein. Save and except as otherwise stipulatedhis report, the contactor upon the servi.ay fluctuate. At different periods, the Company may release reports which arepage of the report only acts as the liaison who shall not provide any consultingThe c nts shall consid

51、er the Companyssibleoferests whiay affect the objectivity of this report, and shall not base their investment decissolely on this report. The c nts should make investment decis independently and solely at your own risk. Please be remindedt in any event, the companywill not share gains or losses of a

52、ny securities investment with the c nts. Whether written or oral, any commitment to share gains or losses of securities investmentis invalid. The investment and servireferred to hereay not be suitable for certain c nts and shall not constituteal advice for individual c nts. TheCompany does not ensur

53、et this report fully takeso consideration of the particular investment objectives, finan l situations or needs of individual c nts.The Company strongly suggests the c nts to consider themselves whether the opinions or suggestions herein are suitable for the c nts particular situations; andto consult

54、 an independent investment consultant if nesary.Under no circumstanshall the information contained herein or the opinions expressed herein forms an investmentmendation to anyone. Under nocircumstanshall the Company be held responsible for any loss caused by the use of any contents herein by anyone.

55、Please be particularly cautious to the risksand exures of the market via investment.Please refer to the last page for important disclosuresPage 526 June 2017Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life | Company ResearchIndependent investment consultant should be consulted before any investment decireport

56、where the receiver of this report is not a c nt of the Company.is rendered based on this report or at any request of explanation for thisThe Companysesses all copyrights of this report which shall be treated as non-public information. The Company reservess related to this report. Unlessotherwise indicated in writing, all the copyrights of all the materials herein belong to the Company.writing, no part of this report shall be copied, photocopied, replicated or redistributed to any othhe absence of any prior authorization by the Company inerson in any for