互聯(lián)網(wǎng)龍頭在疫情后更具韌性

1、圖1：招商證券覆蓋公司的20年二季度業(yè)績重點圖表20年二季度業(yè)績 (百萬元人民幣)騰訊嗶哩嗶哩京東金山阿里巴巴網(wǎng)易美團點評閱文創(chuàng)夢天地收入114,8832,618201,0541,420153,75118,18524,7223,2601,592毛利率46%23%14%85%45%54%35%53%43%經(jīng)調(diào)整凈利潤30,153-4725,91127440,6155,2262,71822204經(jīng)調(diào)整凈利潤率26%-18%3%19%26%29%11%1%13%收入對比市場共識2%3%5%8%4%7%5%n.a.n.a.經(jīng)調(diào)整凈利潤對比市場共識3%符合預期49%99%12%23%6690%n.a.n

2、.a.收入對比我們的預測-3%1%5%3%0%9%0%-21%-4%經(jīng)調(diào)整凈利潤對比我們的預測2%低于預期29%-7%2%26%超出預期-96%-32%資料來源：彭博、公司、招商證券（香港）預測；注：閱文和創(chuàng)夢天地的業(yè)績是20年上半年；阿里巴巴的業(yè)績是21財年一季度圖2：FAANG的20年二季度業(yè)績20年二季度業(yè)績 (百萬美元)Facebook亞馬遜蘋果奈飛谷歌收入18,68788,91259,6856,14831,603毛利率80%41%38%41%62%非GAAP凈利潤5,1785,24311,2531,1424,456非GAAP凈利潤率28%6%19%19%14%收入對比市場共識8%9%

3、14%1%4%非GAAP凈利潤對比市場共識-2%124%24%25%-43%資料來源：彭博、公司、招商證券（香港）；注：蘋果公司的業(yè)績是20財年三季度估值對比公司名稱彭博代碼幣種CMS 評級收市價CMS元)2020E2021E2020E2021E2020E2021E2020E2021E2020E2021EEPSEBITDA平臺型騰訊700 HK港元買入534.0652.0660.225.021.136.930.71.91.69.67.824.222.419.417.9阿里巴巴BABA US美元買入296.1288.0801.125.019.830.623.31.20.98.56.918.017

4、.425.823.3美團點評3690 HK港元中性262.6229.0199.2n.a.48.8n.a.75.61.90.512.17.81.413.9140.9126.9百度BIDU US美元未評級124.3n.a.42.810.38.416.413.90.80.72.82.48.39.919.919.8谷歌GOOGL US美元未評級1,717.4n.a.1,172.017.814.633.426.31.51.28.36.916.118.022.719.1臉書FB US美元未評級302.5n.a.861.820.416.133.627.21.51.210.88.720.721.122.123

5、.5Naver035420 KS韓元未評級339,000.0n.a.46.838.028.372.847.41.91.27.36.511.816.338.827.0中國平均20.124.528.035.91.40.98.26.213.015.951.547.0海外平均25.419.746.633.61.61.28.87.416.218.527.923.2云計算騰訊700 HK港元買入534.0652.0660.225.021.136.930.71.91.69.67.824.222.419.417.9金山軟件3888 HK港元買入42.852.07.617.614.939.830.81.81.4

6、8.67.25.66.321.917.0阿里巴巴BABA US美元買入296.1288.0801.125.019.830.623.31.20.98.56.918.017.425.823.3金蝶268 HK港元未評級20.0n.a.8.9n.a.99.4n.a.n.a.5.71.617.314.10.94.0146.938.4中軟國際354 HK港元未評級5.5n.a.1.910.89.114.111.90.80.70.90.812.713.518.316.2微軟MSFT US美元未評級231.7n.a.1,753.026.023.140.935.63.02.612.411.240.242.81

7、3.712.3亞馬遜AMZN US美元未評級3,531.5n.a.1,768.933.026.574.458.92.72.14.84.122.425.727.724.1谷歌GOOGL US美元未評級1,717.4n.a.1,172.017.814.633.426.31.51.28.36.916.118.022.719.1SalesforceCRM US美元未評級276.7n.a.251.850.040.095.474.77.05.514.812.110.410.313.721.0SAPSAP US美元未評級169.0n.a.207.621.118.829.125.52.11.86.35.818

8、.417.413.98.4甲骨文ORCL US美元未評級59.0n.a.181.111.311.115.514.72.22.14.64.671.998.77.02.5VMwareVMW US美元未評級147.0n.a.61.815.914.422.422.34.14.16.15.377.642.95.58.5DropboxDBX US美元未評級21.8n.a.9.017.214.428.024.21.51.34.74.332.729.018.124.8中國平均19.632.930.324.22.31.29.07.412.312.746.522.6海外平均24.020.442.435.33.02

9、.67.76.836.235.615.315.1社交和泛娛樂騰訊700 HK港元買入534.0652.0660.225.021.136.930.71.91.69.67.824.222.419.417.9嗶哩嗶哩BILI US美元買入50.959.017.6n.a.91.3n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.10.87.9n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.閱文772 HK港元中性56.045.07.3n.a.31.7n.a.32.81.00.36.64.9n.a.7.3123.6n.a.騰訊音樂TME US美元未評級15.9n.a.26.736.225.538.929.31.31.06.25.09.5

10、12.029.137.4愛奇藝IQ US美元未評級22.21n.a.16.3n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.3.73.2n.a.28.4n.a.n.a.微博WB US美元未評級37.9n.a.8.615.312.218.514.81.10.85.24.617.517.717.619.3歡聚時代YY US美元未評級84.3n.a.6.815.412.023.615.90.60.41.91.66.06.039.431.8虎牙HUYA US美元未評級29.5n.a.6.631.819.738.128.01.20.94.03.212.315.632.446.5斗魚DOYU US美元未評

11、級16.9n.a.5.427.116.032.223.71.00.83.62.914.817.930.848.1陌陌MOMO US美元未評級19.9n.a.4.24.73.68.66.50.40.31.71.521.323.919.719.2寶寶樹1761 HK港元未評級1.5n.a.0.3n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.臉書FB US美元未評級302.5n.a.861.820.416.133.627.21.51.210.88.720.721.122.123.5奈飛NFLX US美元未評級552.8n.a.243.853.140.

12、783.758.22.21.69.88.329.030.037.431.0SpotifySPOT US美元未評級276.3n.a.51.3n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.5.54.5n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.SnapchatSNAP US美元未評級23.5n.a.34.6n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.15.811.4n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.Line3938 JP日元未評級5,400.0n.a.12.3n.a.42.7n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.5.24.5n.a.n.a.n.a.530.7目標價市值EV/EBITDA (倍)市盈率 (倍)PE

13、G (倍)市銷率 (倍)ROE (%)CAGR 2020E-22E(十億美 中國平均22.225.928.122.71.10.85.34.315.116.839.031.5海外平均36.833.158.642.71.91.49.47.524.925.629.8195.1公司名稱彭博代碼幣種CMS 評級目標價(十億美 收市價CMS市值EV/EBITDA (倍)市盈率 (倍)PEG (倍)市銷率 (倍)ROE (%)CAGR 2020E-22E元)2020E2021E2020E2021E2020E2021E2020E2021E2020E2021EEPSEBITDA線上游戲騰訊700 HK港元買入5

14、34.0652.0660.225.021.136.930.71.91.69.67.824.222.419.417.9嗶哩嗶哩BILI US美元買入50.959.017.6n.a.91.3n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.10.87.9n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.金山軟件3888 HK港元買入42.852.07.617.614.939.830.81.81.48.67.25.66.321.917.0網(wǎng)易NTES US美元買入493.6559.068.219.517.326.523.82.72.46.45.819.016.910.010.2創(chuàng)夢天地1119 HK港元買入5.15.40.89.88.

15、212.610.60.60.51.81.68.710.219.718.8心動2400 HK港元未評級41.3n.a.2.418.013.431.222.92.70.74.73.724.323.233.430.2IGG799 HK港元未評級9.3n.a.1.54.24.67.58.6n.a.n.a.2.22.144.329.6n.a.n.a.網(wǎng)龍777 HK港元未評級19.6n.a.1.45.04.110.68.30.40.31.51.312.112.724.421.6中手游302 HK港元未評級3.7n.a.1.18.37.09.57.9n.a.0.61.71.419.920.713.98.6

16、玩友時代6820 HK港元未評級2.8n.a.0.87.25.410.07.70.60.42.21.731.830.920.016.2SEASE US美元未評級157.2n.a.76.7n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.16.511.3n.a.256.8n.a.n.a.任天堂7974 JP日元未評級60,520.0n.a.75.020.914.032.022.51.71.26.35.615.520.019.020.0動視暴雪ATVI US美元未評級83.5n.a.64.418.217.726.025.33.63.58.38.117.115.17.26.2藝電EA US美元未評級1

17、39.6n.a.40.320.016.529.925.52.42.17.86.628.218.112.212.5Nexon3659 JP日元未評級2,578.0n.a.21.513.111.019.416.72.21.97.76.816.916.98.911.5Take-TwoTTWO US美元未評級172.8n.a.19.826.226.036.735.94.14.07.06.622.47.69.011.7Ncsoft036570 KS韓元未評級835,000.0n.a.15.416.311.324.316.80.90.67.05.426.830.226.926.6網(wǎng)石游戲251270 KS

18、韓元未評級194,500.0n.a.14.041.031.961.348.43.32.66.65.95.76.818.520.2ZyngaZNGA US美元未評級9.1n.a.9.717.914.235.328.01.00.84.43.67.117.336.719.7中國平均12.718.720.516.81.51.04.94.121.119.220.317.6海外平均21.717.833.127.42.42.17.96.717.543.217.316.1電商京東JD US美元買入83.284.0130.241.627.160.741.81.51.01.21.119.111.241.145.7

19、阿里巴巴BABA US美元買入296.1288.0801.125.019.830.623.31.20.98.56.918.017.425.823.3美團點評3690 HK港元中性262.6229.0199.2n.a.48.8n.a.75.61.90.512.17.81.413.9140.9126.9拼多多PDD US美元未評級90.3n.a.123.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.17.311.2n.a.4.8n.a.n.a.唯品會VIPS US美元未評級16.5n.a.11.19.07.313.311.20.80.70.80.723.221.016.124.3寶尊電商BZU

20、N US美元未評級41.9n.a.2.623.916.731.522.40.90.72.01.617.922.533.834.7寺庫SECO US美元未評級2.9n.a.0.2n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.亞馬遜AMZN US美元未評級3,531.5n.a.1,768.933.026.574.458.92.72.14.84.122.425.727.724.1eBayEBAY US美元未評級55.1n.a.38.610.59.715.413.91.41.33.63.4118.1n.a.11.08.4中國平均24.923.934.0

21、34.91.30.87.04.915.915.151.551.0海外平均19.215.045.731.01.81.53.53.171.123.727.318.8中國垂直領(lǐng)域攜程TCOM US美元未評級30.6n.a.18.1n.a.22.8n.a.25.7n.a.n.a.6.53.9n.a.5.0n.a.n.a.汽車之家ATHM US美元未評級83.1n.a.9.914.512.519.617.31.31.17.87.022.220.915.113.458 同城WUBA US美元未評級55.7n.a.8.311.410.014.013.2n.a.n.a.3.63.012.68.3n.a.n.a

22、.前程無憂JOBS US美元未評級67.0n.a.4.517.115.329.122.70.90.78.88.010.811.230.811.7易車BITA US美元未評級15.8n.a.1.1n.a.23.6n.a.35.8n.a.n.a.0.80.7n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.趣頭條QTT US美元未評級2.8n.a.0.8n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.0.80.7n.a.8.4n.a.n.a.寶寶樹1761 HK港元未評級1.5n.a.0.3n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.搜房網(wǎng)SFUN US美元未評級

23、11.5n.a.0.1n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.智游網(wǎng)EXPE US美元未評級102.9n.a.14.5n.a.15.3n.a.79.2n.a.n.a.2.61.8n.a.139.3n.a.n.a.中國平均14.316.820.922.91.10.94.73.915.210.723.012.6海外平均注：股價采用 2020 年 9 月 2 日收市價（美股），2020 年 9 月 3 日（其他市場）；未評級公司的未來預測是基于彭博市場共識；資料來源：彭博、公司、招商證券（香港）預測財務(wù)預測表 騰訊百萬元人民幣FY18FY19

24、FY20E FY21E FY22E利潤表百萬元人民幣FY18FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E資產(chǎn)負債表利息收入4,5696,3147,99312,04116,735其他收益凈額16,71419,68920,61318,20521,338銷售和營銷費用(24,233) (21,396) (33,252) (40,759) (47,070)物業(yè)、廠房及設(shè)備35,091 46,824 60,349 73,19283,152 營業(yè)收入312,694377,289488,584606,833711,270營業(yè)成本(170,574)(209,756)(260,995)(328,506)(383

25、,394毛利142,120167,533227,589278,328327,876無形資產(chǎn)56,650 128,860 127,188 123,622 123,140 現(xiàn)金及現(xiàn)金等價物97,814 132,991 234,457 333,342 457,327 定期存款62,91865,911 94,788 134,558 184,213 投資聯(lián)營和合資公司227,790 221,894 229,458 241,716 253,546可供出售投資-公允價值的金融資產(chǎn)141,396 217,657 261,188 313,426 376,111一般及行政費用(41,522)(53,446)(64

26、,721)(80,343)(94,078)其他101,862 139,849 144,572 158,092 172,191 營業(yè)利潤97,648118,694158,222187,471224,803總資產(chǎn)723,521 953,986 1,152,00 1,377,94 1,649,68 凈財務(wù)成本(4,669)(7,613)(7,507)(9,226)(11,175)應付賬款73,735 80,690 93,958 111,692 130,354 聯(lián)營及合營企業(yè)應占虧損1,487(1,681)(576)00其他應付款和應計負債33,312 45,174 45,174 45,17445,1

27、74 稅前利潤94,466109,400150,139178,245213,627所得稅費用(14,482)(13,512)(20,018)(22,254)(26,679)少數(shù)股東權(quán)益1,2652,5782,9116,8588,003 銀行借款114,271 126,952 128,181 131,586 137,674 應付票據(jù)65,018 93,861 138,634 187,222 241,367 其他80,978 118,485 125,666 124,724 131,912 凈利潤78,71993,310127,210149,133178,945非 IFRS 營業(yè)利潤92,48111

28、4,601152,948185,454222,328股本-非 IFRS 凈利潤77,46994,351126,855153,802183,571股份溢價27,294 35,271 48,091 63,26281,043總負債367,314 465,162 531,613 600,397 686,480 主要財務(wù)比率 FY18FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E 年成長率庫存股- 股份獎勵計劃股份(4,173) (4,002) (4,002) (4,002) (4,002)其他儲備金729 16,786 16,786 16,78616,786 留存收益299,660 384,651 50

29、0,483 635,619 795,483 營業(yè)收益32%21%29%24%17%少數(shù)股東權(quán)益32,69756,118 59,029 65,88773,890營業(yè)利潤8%22%33%18%20%總權(quán)益356,207 488,824 620,387 777,552 963,200非IFRS凈利潤19%22%34%21%19%獲利能力現(xiàn)金流量表股本回報率26%24%24%22%21%百萬元人民幣FY18FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E毛利率45%44%47%46%46%經(jīng)營活動現(xiàn)金流110,936 148,590 205,616 220,150 264,896 股東權(quán)益總額323,51

30、0 432,706 561,358 711,665 889,311 非 IFRS 營業(yè)利潤率30%30%31%31%31%凈利潤79,984 95,888 130,121 155,991 186,948 折舊攤銷34,248 44,673 46,777 54,44061,650 非 IFRS 凈利率25%25%26%25%26%每股資料和估值 (人民幣)攤薄每股盈利8.29.713.215.4 18.4非 IFRS 基本每股盈利8.210.013.416.119.2 非 IFRS 攤薄每股盈利8.19.813.215.9 18.9股權(quán)激勵7,869 10,127 12,820 15,17117

31、,782聯(lián)營公司減值準備16,3973,8237,5883,3183,502營運資金變動4,491 15,330 15,7263,27111,751 其它(32,053) (21,251) (7,417) (12,041) (16,735) 非IFRS攤薄每股盈利9.411.014.517.420.7資本支出和購買無形資產(chǎn)(51,620) (52,632) (58,630) (63,717) (71,127)每股凈資產(chǎn) 34.545.458.775.792.8定期存款凈額(20,828) (2,994) (28,877) (39,770) (49,655) 投資活動現(xiàn)金流(151,913 (1

32、16,170 (138,773 (159,261 (182,063(港元)每股股利0.91.01.52.02.3其他投資籌資活動現(xiàn)金流(79,465) 30,887(60,544) 1,672(51,267) (55,773) 34,624 37,996(61,281) 41,152估值比率借款37,84222,96146,002 51,99260,233EV/EBITDA (x)38.231.625.021.118.0股息(6,776)(8,315)(11,378) (13,997)(19,081)市盈率 (x)57.148.736.930.725.8凈現(xiàn)金流(7,883) 35,177 1

33、01,466 98,885 123,985 市凈率 (x)13.710.68.36.55.3注：截至2020年9月3日的收盤價股息率 (%)0.190.220.300.410.48資料來源：彭博、公司、招商證券（香港）預測財務(wù)預測表 嗶哩嗶哩利潤表資產(chǎn)負債表人民幣百萬元FY18FY19FY20EFY21EFY22E人民幣百萬元FY18FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E凈營收總額4,1296,77811,24415,81120,289現(xiàn)金及現(xiàn)金等價物3,5404,9634,7403,1263,352 營收成本(3,273)(5,588)(8,675)(11,166)(13,339)定期

34、存款7491,8454,8224,8224,822 毛利8551,1902,5694,6446,950應收賬款凈額3247456658971,144 銷售和營銷費用(586)(1,199)(2,902)(3,352)(3,693)預付款和流動資產(chǎn)9911,5112,2493,1624,058 一般及行政費用(461)(592)(844)(1,079)(1,284)短期投資9451,2614,6394,6394,639 研發(fā)費用(537)(894)(1,373)(1,708)(1,988)物業(yè)、廠房及設(shè)備凈值395516704806734 營業(yè)費用總額(1,584)(2,685)(5,119)(

35、6,138)(6,965)無形資產(chǎn)凈額1,4191,6572,3042,7732,748營業(yè)利潤/(虧損)(729)(1,495)(2,549)(1,494)(15)商譽9411,0121,0121,0121,012投資收入凈額969711818646長期投資凈額9801,2511,2511,2511,251 利息收入6916324626360其他資產(chǎn)0312312312312 利息支出0(47)(97)(47)(12)匯兌損益(2)(12)1700應付賬款1,3081,9043,0363,9084,669其他營業(yè)外收入26263200應付薪酬福利247356356356356 稅前收入/(虧

36、損)(539)(1,268)(2,234)(1,093)80遞延收入9851,3691,3691,3691,369 所得稅費用(26)(36)(45)(56)(56)應計負債及其他應付款670576576576 576應計優(yōu)先股(65)0000長期負債03,4159,0959,0959,095 應付優(yōu)先股股利00000其他負債89261261261261 增加可贖回的少數(shù)股東權(quán)益00(3)00總負債3,2997,88014,69215,56416,325 少數(shù)股東權(quán)益13157(8)(8)總權(quán)益7,1917,6368,4507,6818,192歸屬股東凈利潤(616)(1,289)(2,276

37、)(1,157)16歸屬股東的非 GAAP 凈利潤(429)(1,067)(1,948)(743)536現(xiàn)金流量表人民幣百萬元FY18FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E生產(chǎn)成本凈額204444444444444 總資產(chǎn)10,49015,51723,14223,24524,516主要財務(wù)比率折舊攤銷6421,0971,6392,4333,344年成長率股權(quán)激勵181173294379487手游43%23%43%28%21%營運資金變動565223475(273)(382) 直播&增值服務(wù)232%180%114%50%31% 其它(86)5000 FY18FY19 FY20E FY21E

38、 FY22E 經(jīng)營活動現(xiàn)金流7371951281,3903,472 凈利潤(虧損)(565) (1,304)(2,279)(1,149)24 廣告191%76%84%59%45%投資活動現(xiàn)金流(3,196) (3,958)(8,830)(3,004)(3,246) 電商&其他92%403%51%44%22%購買物業(yè)、廠房及設(shè)備(294)(296)(450)(474)(406) 營收67%64%66%41%28%購買無形資產(chǎn)(1,040) (1,269)(2,024)(2,530)(2,840) 非 GAAP 凈利潤n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.短期投資增加凈額(415)20 (3,3

39、79)00 盈利能力長期投資增加凈額(564)(660)00 0非 GAAP 毛利率21%18%23%30%35%定期存款配置(750) (4,920)(2,978)0 0歸屬股東非 GAAP 凈利率-10%-16%-17%-5%3%其他(134)3,167000 融資活動現(xiàn)金流4,9755,0798,4790 0ROEn.a.-18%-28%-14%0%注：收盤價截至2020年9月2日ROA-8%-10%-12%-5%0%資料來源：彭博、公司、招商證券（香港）預測每股資料 (人民幣)每股銷售額17.721.032.644.355.8非 GAAP 每股盈利(1.84)(3.30)(5.64)(

40、2.08)1.47非 GAAP 每股盈利(美元)(0.27)(0.47)(0.82)(0.30)0.21估值比率 (x)P/S19.717.010.87.96.3EV/EBITDAn.a.n.a.n.a.91.331.6財務(wù)預測表 京東百萬元人民幣FY18FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E損益表總凈收入462,020 576,888 733,754 867,989 1,012,969收入成本(396,066) (492,467) (625,674) (738,656) (859,994)毛利65,95484,421108,081129,333152,974履約(32,010)(36,

41、968)(47,318)(54,111)(62,106)營銷(19,237)(22,234)(27,402)(31,026)(35,047)研發(fā)(12,144) (14,619) (16,864) (19,183) (20,801) 一般及行政費(5,160)(5,490)(6,086)(7,047)(7,725)應占股權(quán)投資份額(1,113)(1,738)1,884(2,000)(2,000)應付賬款79,98590,42893,851110,798128,999凈利息收入及其他收入1,3596,4369,5172,8243,574其他41,02161,75973,41883,38194,0

42、61稅前收入/（損失）(2,374)13,69322,00818,79028,869總負債132,337159,099175,930204,635235,384所得稅支出(427)(1,802)(1,635)(2,819)(4,330) 非控制性權(quán)益(309)(297)(151)(200)(200)股東權(quán)益總額59,77181,856133,554154,816185,495凈收入(2,492)12,18420,52116,16824,735少數(shù)股東權(quán)益1,0962,8042,6562,4592,263非 GAAP 凈收入3,46010,75014,54922,01331,385總權(quán)益60,8

43、6784,660136,210157,275187,758減值(22)000 0總營業(yè)費用(68,573)(79,311)(97,669) (111,367)(125,679)長期資產(chǎn)處置收益03,88519600營業(yè)利潤/（虧損）(2,619)8,99510,60717,96627,295主要財務(wù)比率 FY18FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E 年成長率獲利能力折舊和攤銷5,5605,8286,3287,9389,725非 GAAP 毛利率14.1%14.5%14.7%14.9%15.1% 股權(quán)激勵3,6603,6953,8785,0935,944非 GAAP EBITDA 利潤率

44、1.2%2.4%2.7%3.5%4.2% 應占股權(quán)投資份額1,1131,738(1,884)2,0002,000直營銷售25.4%22.7%26.0%16.3%15.6% 服務(wù)和其他50.5%44.1%36.7%32.7%23.5%收入27.5%24.9%27.2%18.3%16.7%非 GAAP 凈收入-30.4%210.7%35.3%51.3%42.6%營運資金變動12,3567,766(443)12,57114,648其他993(6,136)(196)00非 GAAP 凈利潤率0.7%1.8%2.0%2.5%3.1% ROE-4.5%17.2%19.1%11.2%14.5% 資產(chǎn)負債表百

45、萬元人民幣FY18FY19FY20EFY21EFY22E現(xiàn)金及現(xiàn)金等價物34,26236,97171,29793,728128,785短期投資2,03624,60325,00025,00025,000應收賬款11,1106,1918,0719,54811,143存貨44,03057,93270,70182,73094,599物業(yè)、廠房及設(shè)備21,08320,65427,56034,26840,688股權(quán)投資31,35735,57644,46049,46054,460其他65,28777,79781,01683,14284,431總資產(chǎn)209,165259,724328,105377,87443

46、9,106短期借款14705051,0751,724長期借款6,7866,9128,1579,38010,600無追索權(quán)證券化債務(wù)4,3980000可贖回非控股權(quán)益15,96115,96415,96415,96415,964現(xiàn)金流量表百萬元人民幣FY18FY19FY20EFY21EFY22E經(jīng)營活動現(xiàn)金流20,88124,78128,05643,57356,855收入/（損失）凈額(2,801)11,89020,37315,97224,538ROA-1.4%5.1%6.9%4.5%6.0% 投資活動現(xiàn)金流(26,079)(25,349)(23,344)(23,492)(24,220)營運能力資

47、本支出(9,743)(2,597)(7,338)(8,680)(10,130)存貨周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)39.537.837.537.937.6短期投資增加凈額6,535(22,483)(397)00其他(22,871)(269)(15,609)(14,812)(14,091)應收賬款周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)10.95.53.53.7 3.7每股比率 (人民幣)籌資活動現(xiàn)金流11,2202,57229,6142,3492,422非 GAAP 攤薄后每股盈利2.37.39.513.819.0 借款增加凈額002,3142,3492,422非 GAAP 攤薄后每股盈利普通股所得資金3,5320000 (美元)0.31.01.4

48、2.0 2.7應付賬款周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)71.163.253.850.6 50.9非 GAAP 攤薄后每股盈利(港元)1.34.05.37.710.6 估值比率 (x)P/S (美股)1.81.51.21.1 0.9P/S (港股)1.81.51.21.10.9 EV/EBITDA146.061.041.627.119.6 其他7,6882,57227,30000現(xiàn)金流凈額7,7042,41034,32622,43135,057注：截至 2020 年 9 月 2 日（美股）, 2020 年 9 月 3 日（港股）收盤價;資料來源：彭博、公司、招商證券（香港）預測財務(wù)預測表 金山人民幣百萬元FY18FY1

49、9 FY20E FY21E FY22E資產(chǎn)負債表人民幣百萬元FY18FY19FY20EFY21EFY22E物業(yè)、廠房及設(shè)備2,0362,9131,6501,5191,337聯(lián)營/合營公司投資4,5052,70813,19113,19113,191AFS 投資010101010現(xiàn)金及現(xiàn)金等價物9,86913,79214,55117,46420,797應收賬款1,1852,0591,2191,4641,677其他2,4552,9194,1204,4874,807總資產(chǎn)20,05024,40234,74138,13541,818遞延收入7529311,2191,4641,677借款4,0674,28

50、12,3362,3802,422應付賬款9481,5021,5851,9772,348其它應付款項1,1011,6901,7071,9032,013其它負債2613881,4341,4341,434總負債7,1288,7928,2829,1589,893股東權(quán)益總額13,03813,79723,98325,59827,447少數(shù)股東權(quán)益(116)1,8122,4773,3794,477總權(quán)益12,92215,60926,45928,97731,924現(xiàn)金流量表人民幣百萬元FY18FY19FY20EFY21EFY22E經(jīng)營活動現(xiàn)金流77082511,8773,1403,522稅前利潤(25)(1

51、,921)2,0602,9003,462折舊480684654570602股份補償成本212245155158161運營資金變動426(36)585220161其它(324)1,8538,423(709)(863)投資活動現(xiàn)金流(780)(2,220)(10,004)(71)21資本開支(1,420)(1,377)610(439)(419)定期存款變動436(1,125)000其他205282(10,613)368440融資活動現(xiàn)金流1,5104,170(1,115)(156)(210)股息(127)0(122)(106)(156)借款凈額1,871(274)(1,944)4442其它(235

52、)4,444952(94)(96)凈現(xiàn)金流1,5002,7757592,9133,333利潤表營業(yè)收入5,9064,3716,0977,3208,385營業(yè)成本(3,169)(803)(908)(982) (1,008) 毛利潤2,7373,5695,1906,3397,378 銷售和營銷費用(727)(717)(836) (1,148) (1,387) 一般管理和行政費用(449)(364)(442)(464)(474) 研發(fā)費用(1,839) (1,552) (1,746) (2,023) (2,305) 股份補償成本(212)(149)(155)(158)(161) 其他收入/支出188

53、2361448167 總營業(yè)費用(3,039) (2,546) (3,036) (3,713) (4,259) 營業(yè)利潤(302)1,0232,1542,6263,118 其他收入/損失(146) (1,231)(101)00 財務(wù)收入凈額(1)191233274344 聯(lián)營/合營公司股份424(393)(226)00 稅前收入(25)(411)2,0602,9003,462所得稅少數(shù)股東權(quán)益(140)(554)(155)235(339)664(435)903(519) 1,098歸屬股東凈收入389(801)1,0561,5621,845歸屬股東經(jīng)調(diào)整凈收入6225791,3131,7212

54、,006主要財務(wù)比率 FY18FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E 年成長率 (%)營業(yè)收入14n.a.392015 毛利潤(9)n.a.452216 經(jīng)營利潤n.a.n.a.1112219 凈利潤(88)n.a.(232)4818 經(jīng)調(diào)整凈收入經(jīng)調(diào)整攤薄每股盈利(49)(51)n.a.n.a.127126313117 16主要比率 (%)ROE3.1(6.0)5.66.37.0毛利率46.381.685.186.688.0經(jīng)營利潤率(5.1)23.435.335.937.2 凈利率6.6(18.3)17.321.322.0 經(jīng)調(diào)整凈利率10.513.221.523.523.9 股息支

55、付率0.0(15.3)10.010.010.0 每股資料和估值（人民幣）經(jīng)調(diào)整基本每股盈利0.50.41.01.31.5 經(jīng)調(diào)整攤薄每股盈利0.40.41.01.31.5 經(jīng)調(diào)整攤薄每股盈利（港元）0.50.51.11.41.6 每股凈資產(chǎn)9.510.117.518.619.9 每股股息0.00.10.10.10.1 估值市盈率 (x)85.390.339.830.826.8 市凈率 (x)3.93.82.22.12.0 股息率 (%)n.a.0.20.20.30.3 注：19/20E/21E/22E年度財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)已調(diào)整金山云的剝離。收盤價截至 2020年9月3日; 資料來源：彭博、公司、招商證

56、券（香港）預測; *19財年暫未重述財務(wù)預測表 阿里巴巴人民幣百萬元FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E損益表人民幣百萬元FY19FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E資產(chǎn)負債表營業(yè)收入376,844 509,711 669,069 824,861 986,429 營收成本(206,929) (282,367) (355,696) (434,803) (522,863) 毛利潤169,915 227,344 313,373 390,058 463,566 銷售及營銷費用(39,780) (50,673) (63,947) (80,018) (95,690) 一般及行政費

57、用(24,889) (28,197) (39,319) (46,338) (55,375) 產(chǎn)品開發(fā)(37,435) (43,080) (53,093) (61,870) (74,005) 攤銷(10,727) (13,388) (13,094) (14,460) (15,802) 減值0(576)000 總營業(yè)費用(112,831) (135,914) (169,454) (202,686) (240,871) 營業(yè)利潤57,08491,430 143,919 187,372 222,694 利息支出(5,190) (5,180) (5,302) (5,806) (6,508) 利息及投資收

58、入44,10672,95631,63117,30823,503其他收入2217,4391,793400400 稅前利潤96,221 166,645 172,041 199,274 240,090 備付所得稅(16,553) (20,562) (34,147) (39,095) (47,732) 應占股權(quán)投資業(yè)績566 (5,733)9,34916,00020,000少數(shù)股東權(quán)益(7,652) (9,083) (6,136) (8,809) (10,618) 歸屬股東凈利潤87,600 149,263 153,437 184,987 222,975 歸屬股東非 GAAP 凈利潤100,731 1

59、41,344 185,660 244,508 297,003 財務(wù)比率 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E 年成長率核心電商51%35%31%22%18% 云業(yè)務(wù)84%62%52%41%36% 數(shù)字媒體和娛樂23%12%18%9%14% 創(chuàng)新項目和其他業(yè)務(wù)42%42%-25%18%9% 收入合計51%35%31%23%20% 非 GAAP EBITDA15%29%36%26%20% 非 GAAP 凈利潤17%40%31%32%21% 盈利能力毛利率45.1%44.6%46.8%47.3%47.0% 非 GAAP EBITDA 利潤率32.4%30.9%32.1%32.8%3

60、3.1% 非 GAAP 凈利潤率26.7%27.7%27.7%29.6%30.1% ROE20.4%23.9%18.0%17.4%16.9% ROA9.5%12.3%10.4%10.6%10.7% 每股比率 (人民幣)非 GAAP 基本每股盈利39.153.969.891.5110.6 非 GAAP 攤薄每股盈利38.453.068.790.0108.8 非 GAAP 攤薄每股盈利(美元)5.87.69.712.715.3 非 GAAP 攤薄每股盈利(港元)5.77.49.412.314.8 估值比率 (x)市盈率 (美股)50.739.030.623.319.3 市盈率 (港股)50.238