美國交通運輸業(yè)展望：前方道路不明

1、15 January 2019 Americas/United States Equity Research TransportationResearchAnalystsAllison M.Landry212 3253716 HYPERLINK mailto:allison.landry Samantha Yellen212 3257451 HYPERLINK mailto:samantha.yellen BrianWright212 5381855 HYPERLINK mailto:brian.wright North American TransportsSECTOR REVIEWSECT

2、OR REVIEW2019 Outlook: An Unclear Path AheadWe are updating our estimates and target prices for a significant portion of our coverage universe to reflect the events in the transportation sector over the past few months. Our DCF-derived target price changes range from 1% 18%. Please see the individua

3、l company notes for details on our target price changes as well as our valuation and the potential risks to our target prices. We have also published a more detailed 2019 Outlook presentation. Our key thoughts are as highlightedbelow:Looking for Direction: Similar to most industrials investors, we t

4、oo, await for the next signal(s) to tell us if the next move in the stocks is up or down. As we look across our universe, we have the most confidence in the trajectory of rail EPS in 19 which we expect to increase in the low double-digit range on average and the least visibility in theTLs.Own PSR: W

5、hile the macro is clearly slowing domestically and globally and the rails are far from immune we want to own the rails with the PSR model in a slowing volume environment. One of the most important benefits of PSR is the ability to convert fixed costs to variable costs in a downturn - which helps to

6、protect margins (and earnings and cash flow) in the face of volume declines by quickly removing excess equipment and restoring balance on thenetwork.Negative on TL: Spot rates remain down and even if absolute supply and demand remain tight relative to historical standards, we heard about supply cree

7、p in Q3. The fact that capacity appears to have come into the market (even if on the fringes) so soon - into what had only 6 months earlier been described as an extended structural trucking cycle - may be evidence enough to tell us that the industry remains as cyclical as it has always been. Indicat

8、ions by several carriers that a larger % of every incremental dollar from pricing was going to driver pay in 2018 relative to historical trends does little to assuage ourconcerns.Favorite Stocks: Rails. All of them. But, we rank order as follows: CSX, CNI, UNP/CP (its a tie), KSU,NSC.Least Favorite

9、Stocks: GWR, EXPD,WERNDISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Creditto do in its As a be the a of of as a in Americas/United States Leasing & LogisticsRatingPrice(

10、14-Jan-19, US$)85.85Targetprice(US$)(from 86.00) 80.00 52-week pricerange(US$)100.18 -79.06Market cap(US$ m)11,805CH Robinson (CHRW)Raising EPS Estimates and Lowering TargetPriceEnterprise value(US$m)12,837 PriceTarget price is for 12 months.ResearchAnalystsAllison M.Landry212 3253716 HYPERLINK mail

11、to:allison.landry Samantha Yellen212 3257451 HYPERLINK mailto:samantha.yellen BrianWright212 5381855 HYPERLINK mailto:brian.wright Target Price Changes and Valuation: We have raised our 2018 estimate to$4.61 from $4.58. We have also raised our 2019 and 2020 estimates to $4.92 and $5.29 from $4.87 an

12、d $5.26, respectively. However, our target price decreases to $80 from $86 due to a lower EBIT growth rate and a higher discount rate partially offset by a higher base year (2019) EBIT in our DCF model.Risks to Our Target Price: The primary risk to our target price is a potential slowdown in the fre

13、ightmarket.Year12/17A12/18E12/19EYear12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20EEPS (CS adj.) (US$)3.354.614.925.29Prev. EPS (US$)-4.584.875.26P/E rel. (%)131.9118.7119.7123.1Revenue (US$ m)14,869.416,771.217,607.618,519.9EBITDA (US$ m)868.1989.71,047.81,104.4A p r -18l -18O ct- 1 8Jan -19OCFPS(US$)2.695.025.415.84P/O

14、CF (x)14.7CHRW.OQS&P 500 INDEXEV/EBITDA (current)14.813.012.311.6n12, 2018 -Jan14, 2019, 01/12/18=US$94.28ROIC(%)19.6925.5026.8728.191 05958575Financial and valuationmetricsOn 14-Jan-2019 the S&P 500 INDEX closed at 2582.61 Daily JaQuarterly EPSQ1Q2Q32017A0.860.780.85 2018E1.011.131.25 2019E1.191.33

15、1.38 Net debt(US$m)1,1311,033944837Number ofshares(m)137.50IC (current,US$m)BV/share (Next Qtr.,US$)11.5EV/IC (x)Net debt (Next Qtr.,US$m)1,032.7Dividend(current,US$)Net debt/tot eq(NextQtr.,%)64.6Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimatesCH Robinson (CHRW)Income Statement12/17A1

16、2/18E12/19E12/20ERevenue (US$ m)14,869.416,771.217,607.618,519.9EBITDA (US$ m)Income Statement12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20ERevenue (US$ m)14,869.416,771.217,607.618,519.9EBITDA (US$ m)8689901,0481,104Depr. & amort.(93)(99)(108)(115)EBIT (US$)775890940990Net interest exp(47)(32)(46)(48)PBT (US$)7288588949

17、42Income taxes(255)(212)(219)(231)Profit after tax473646675711Minorities-Reported net income (US$)473646675711Other NPAT adjustments(0)(0)(0)0Adjusted net income473647675711Cash Flow12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20EEBIT775890940990Net interest(47)(32)(46)(48)Change in working capital(203)(108)00CAPEX(40)(68)

18、(79)(83)Free cashflow to the firm340637664702Acquisitions(67)(1)00Divestments0000Cash flow from investments(108)(71)(79)(83) Changes inNetCash/Debt(139)9889107 Balance Sheet (US$)12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20EAssetsCash & cash equivalents334309397504Total current assets2,5112,8462,9753,121Total assets4,23

19、64,5254,6254,740LiabilitiesTotal current liabilities1,9871,5151,5151,515Total liabilities2,8102,9272,9272,927Total liabilities and equity4,2364,5254,6254,740 Netdebt1,1311,033944837 Per share12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20ENo. of shares (wtd avg)141140137134CS adj. EPS3.354.614.925.29Company BackgroundCompa

20、ny BackgroundC.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. ( C.H. Robinson) is a third-party logistics company. The Company provides freight transportation services and logistics solutions to companies of all sizes, in a variety ofindustries.Blue/Grey Sky ScenarioOur Blue SkyOur Blue SkyScenario (US$)(from 104.00)9

21、6.00To arrive at our blue sky scenario we assume: faster gross revenue growth and improved net revenue margins. We also assume faster operating margin improvement and a slightly higher forward P/E multiple.Our Grey Sky Scenario (US$)(from 68.00)66.00Prev. EPS (US$)-4.584.875.26 Our Grey Sky Scenario

22、 (US$)(from 68.00)66.00Dividend(US$)1.831.852.002.20 Free cash flowpershare2.414.544.835.22 Toarriveatourgreyskyscenarioweassume:slightlyslowergrossrevenue and lower net revenue margins. We also assumeminimal operating margin improvement and a lower forward P/Emultiple.Share price performanceEarning

23、s12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20ESales growth (%)Earnings12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20ESales growth (%)5.2EBIT growth (%)(7.5)Net profit growth (%)(7.8)EPS growth (%)(6.7)EBITDA margin (%)6.0EBIT margin (%)5.3Pretax margin (%)5.1Net margin(%)3.8Valuation12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20EEV/Sales (x)0.870.770.720.68EV/EBITD

24、A (x)14.813.012.311.6EV/EBIT (x)16.714.413.612.8P/E (x)25.618.617.516.2Price to book (x)6.4Asset turnover3.9Returns12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20EROE stated-return on (%)35.342.841.040.5ROIC (%)19.725.526.928.2Gearing12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20ENet debt/equity (%)79.364.655.646.2Interest coverage ratio (X)16.6

25、27.520.520.7Quarterly EPSQ1Q2Q3Q42017A0.860.780.850.862018E1.01958575Apr- 18l -18Oct- 18Jan - 19CHRW.OQS& P 5 0 0 IND EX 2019E1.191.331.381.35 Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimatesOn 14-Jan-2019 the S&P 500 INDEX closed at 2582.61 Daily Jan12, 2018 - Jan14, 2019, 01/12/18 =

26、US$94.28Americas/United States Leasing & LogisticsRatingPrice(14-Jan-19, US$)22.38Targetprice(US$)(from 29.00) 24.00 52-week pricerange(US$)36.65 -19.20Marketcap(US$ m)639Echo Global Logistics (ECHO)Lowering Target Pricepriceisfor12priceisfor12ResearchAnalystsAllison M.Landry212 3253716 HYPERLINK ma

27、ilto:allison.landry Samantha Yellen212 3257451 HYPERLINK mailto:samantha.yellen BrianWright212 5381855 HYPERLINK mailto:brian.wright $29.00 to $24.00 due to a higher discount rate in our DCF model.Risks to Our Target Price: The primary risk to our target price is a potential slowdown in the freightm

28、arket.Share priceperformance403530252015A p r- 18l -18O ct- 18Jan - 19ECHO.OQS& P 5 0 0IN D EXOn 14-Jan-2019 the S&P 500 INDEX closed at 2582.61 Daily Jan12, 2018 - Jan14, 2019, 01/12/18 = US$29.05Quarterly EPSQ1Q2Q3Q42017A0.090.180.27 0.332018E0.400.460.55 0.372019E0.430.480.52 0.43Financial and va

29、luationmetricsYear12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20EEPS (CSadj.)(US$)0.871.781.872.11Prev. EPS (US$)-P/E rel. (%)132.080.182.280.6Revenue(US$m)1,943.12,443.82,676.02,931.4EBITDA (US$ m)76.2110.0118.5128.8OCFPS (US$)1.752.033.083.54P/OCF(x)16.011.07.36.3EV/EBITDA(current)10.57.36.86.2Net debt(US$m)187166148126

30、ROIC(%)5.249.759.6810.04Number ofshares(m)28.55IC (current,US$m)546.28BV/share (Next Qtr.,US$)14.0EV/IC(x)1.4Net debt (Next Qtr.,US$m)Dividend(current,US$)Net debt/tot eq(Next Qtr.,%)41.8Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimatesEcho Global Logistics (ECHO)Income Statement12/17A1

31、2/18E12/19E12/20ERevenue (US$ m)1,943.12,443.82,676.02,931.4EBITDA (US$ m)Income Statement12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20ERevenue (US$ m)1,943.12,443.82,676.02,931.4EBITDA (US$ m)76110118129Depr. & amort.(33)(37)(43)(47)EBIT (US$)43737681Net interest exp(7)(7)(7)(7)PBT (US$)37666975Income taxes(13)(16)(18)(

32、19)Profit after tax24505156Minorities-Reported net income (US$)24505156Other NPAT adjustments0000Adjusted net income24505156Cash Flow12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20EEBIT43737681Net interest15151515Change in working capital(11)(28)(5)(5)CAPEX(21)(27)(26)(32)Free cashflow to the firm28295861Acquisitions0000Di

33、vestments-Cash flow from investments(21)(27)(26)(32) Changes inNetCash/Debt(0)211821 Balance Sheet (US$)12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20EAssetsCash & cash equivalents24496788Total current assets348464493524Total assets838948970998LiabilitiesTotal current liabilities234244221216Total liabilities479551534520To

34、tal liabilities and equity838948970998 Netdebt187166148126 Per share12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20ENo. of shares (wtd avg)28282826CS adj. EPS0.871.781.872.11Prev. EPS (US$)-Dividend (US$)0.000.000.000.00 Free cash flowpershare1.001.052.122.32 Earnings12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20ESales growth (%)9.5EBIT growth (

35、%)(2.4)68.03.97.5Net profit growth (%)(0.2)EPS growth (%)5.5104.04.812.8EBITDA margin (%)4.4EBIT margin (%)2.23.02.82.8Pretax margin (%)2.5Net margin(%)1.22.01.91.9Valuation12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20EEV/Sales (x)0.430.330.290.26EV/EBITDA (x)6.2EV/EBIT (x)19.011.010.49.4P/E (x)25.612.612.010.6Price to b

36、ook (x)1.2Asset turnover2.9Returns12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20EROE stated-return on (%)6.813.212.312.2ROIC (%)10.0Gearing12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20ENet debt/equity (%)52.241.833.926.4Interest coverage ratio (X)6.611.011.212.0Quarterly EPSQ1Q2Q3Q42017A0.090.180.270.332018E0.400.460.550.37Company BackgroundCo

37、mpany BackgroundEcho Global Logistics, Inc.is a provider of technology enabled transportation and supply chain management services. It also offers small- parcel (7%) and intermodal and international air and ocean freight forwarding (13%)services.Blue/Grey Sky ScenarioOur Blue SkyOur Blue SkyScenario

38、 (US$)(from 33.00)28.00To arrive at our blue sky scenario we assume faster gross revenue growth. We also assume faster operating margin improvement, and a slightly higher forward P/Emultiple.Our Grey Sky Scenario (US$)(from 20.00)19.00 Our Grey Sky Scenario (US$)(from 20.00)19.00To arrive at our gre

39、y sky scenario we assume slower gross revenue growth . We assume minimal operating margin improvement and a lower forward P/Emultiple. Share priceperformance403530252015 2019E0.430.480.520.43 Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimatesApr- 18l -18Oct- 18Jan - 19ECHO.OQS&P 500 INDE

40、XOn 14-Jan-2019 the S&P 500 INDEX closed at 2582.61 Daily Jan12, 2018 - Jan14, 2019, 01/12/18 = US$29.05Americas/UnitedStatesTruckingRatingPrice(14-Jan-19, US$)98.01Targetprice(US$)(from 148.00) 121.00 52-week pricerange(US$)130.82 -88.67Market cap(US$ m)10,700JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT)Loweri

41、ng EPS Estimates and Target Pricepriceisfor12Enterprise value(US$ m)11,681 Target Price Changes and Valuation: Wepriceisfor12ResearchAnalystsAllison M.Landry212 3253716 HYPERLINK mailto:allison.landry Samantha Yellen212 3257451 HYPERLINK mailto:samantha.yellen BrianWright212 5381855 HYPERLINK mailto

42、:brian.wright to $5.40 from $5.42. We have also lowered our 2019 and 2020 estimates to$6.59 and $7.63 from $6.65 and $7.68, respectively. As such, our TP decreases to $121 from $148 due to a higher base year (2019) EBIT and a higher discount rate in our DCF model.Risks to Our Target Price: The risks

43、 to our TP include a cyclical rotation out of the trucking sector, weaker pricing and higher laborinflation.Year12/17A12/18E12/19EYear12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20EEPS (CS adj.) (US$)3.405.406.597.63Prev. EPS (US$)-5.426.657.68P/E rel. (%)148.6115.7102.097.4Revenue (US$ m)7,189.68,617.89,616.410,433.2EBIT

44、DA (US$ m)1,007.11,220.11,448.81,570.2A p r -1 8l -18O- 18n -9OCFPS (US$)7.709.2311.3312.91P/OCF (x)14.9JBHT .O QS& P 5 0 0N D EXEV/EBITDA (current)7.5965904n12, 2018 -Jan14,2019, 01/12/18 = US$121.06ROIC(%)24.7019.0522.4724.011 401 201 0080Financial and valuationmetricsIOn 14-Jan-2019 the S&P 500 I

45、NDEX closed at 2582.61 Daily JaQuarterly EPSQ1Q2Q32017A0.920.880.91 2018E1.071.371.47 2019E1.331.661.75 Net debt(US$m)1,071981Number ofshares(m)109.18IC (current,US$m)BV/share (Next Qtr.,US$)19.5EV/IC(x)3.7Net debt (Next Qtr.,US$m)980.7Dividend(current, US$)0.88Net debt/tot eq(Next Qtr.,%)45.9Source

46、: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimatesJB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT)Income Statement12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20ERevenue (US$ m)7,189.68,617.89,616.410,433.2EBITDA (US$ m)Income Statement12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20ERevenue (US$ m)7,189.68,617.89,616.410,433.2EBITDA (US$ m)1,0071,2201,449

47、1,570Depr. & amort.(384)(431)(459)(470)EBIT (US$)6247899901,100Net interest exp(29)(39)(41)(41)PBT (US$)5957509491,059Income taxes91(186)(247)(275)Profit after tax686564702784Minorities-Reported net income (US$)686564702784Other NPAT adjustments309(31)(1)0Adjusted net income377596703784Cash Flow12/1

48、7A12/18E12/19E12/20EEBIT6247899901,100Net interest(29)(39)(41)(41)Change in working capital(32)23(40)(15)CAPEX(527)(746)(750)(775)Free cashflow to the firm328272460552Acquisitions-Divestments16111100100Cash flow from investments(651)(636)(650)(675) Changes inNetCash/Debt(91)901661 Balance Sheet (US$

49、)12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20EAssetsCash & cash equivalents1514279341Total current assets1,3391,3771,4291,491Total assets4,4656,5196,7627,041LiabilitiesTotal current liabilities9221,1431,143939Total liabilities2,6264,3854,4694,555Total liabilities and equity4,4656,5196,7627,041 Netdebt1,071981965904 Per

50、share12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20ENo. of shares (wtd avg)111110107103CS adj. EPS3.405.406.597.63Prev. EPS (US$)-5.426.657.68Dividend (US$)0.910.930.880.88 Free cash flowpershare2.962.464.305.37 Earnings12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20ESales growth (%)9.719.911.68.5EBIT growth (%)(13.5)26.525.411.2Net profit growt

51、h (%)(12.7)57.918.111.4EPS growth (%)(10.9)59.022.015.8EBITDA margin (%)14.0EBIT margin (%)10.5Pretax margin (%)10.2Net margin(%)7.5Valuation12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20EEV/Sales (x)1.641.361.211.11EV/EBITDA (x)7.5EV/EBIT (x)18.914.811.810.5P/E (x)28.918.214.912.8Price to book (x)4.1Asset turnover1.5Retu

52、rns12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20EROE stated-return on (%)42.228.431.732.8ROIC (%)24.719.022.524.0Gearing12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20ENet debt/equity (%)58.245.942.136.3Interest coverage ratio (X)21.820.324.426.9Quarterly EPSQ1Q2Q3Q42017A0.920.880.910.692018E1.071.371.471.49Company BackgroundCompany BackgroundJ

53、.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (JBHT) is a holding company. JBHT provides a range of transportation & delivery services to a group of customers & consumers throughout the continental United States, Canada &Mexico.Blue/Grey Sky ScenarioOur Blue SkyOur Blue SkyScenario (US$)(from 157.00)131.00To ar

54、rive at our blue sky scenario we assume: improvement in the intermodal load growth and rate environment as well as stronger growth in the truckload and DCS segments. We also assume faster operating ratio improvement and a slightly higher forward P/E multiple.Our Grey Sky Scenario (US$)(from 92.00)79

55、.00 Our Grey Sky Scenario (US$)(from 92.00)79.00To arrive at our grey sky scenario we assume: a weaker truckload market which pressures the intermodal business as well. We assume minimal OR improvement and a lower forward P/E multiple. Share price performance1 401 201 0080Apr- 18l -18Oct- 18Jan - 19

56、T.OQS& P 5 0 0 IND EX 2019E1.331.661.751.85 Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimatesOn 14-Jan-2019 the S&P 500 INDEX closed at 2582.61 Daily Jan12, 2018 - Jan14, 2019, 01/12/18 = US$121.06Americas/UnitedStatesTruckingRatingPrice(14-Jan-19, US$)29.23Targetprice(US$)(from 36.00)

57、34.00 52-week pricerange(US$)49.79 -23.98Market cap(US$ m)5,102Knight Transportation (KNX)Lowering EPS Estimates and Target Pricepriceisfor12Enterprise value(US$ m)5,266 Target Price Changes and Valuation: Our EPSpriceisfor12ResearchAnalystsAllison M.Landry212 3253716 HYPERLINK mailto:allison.landry

58、 Samantha Yellen212 3257451 HYPERLINK mailto:samantha.yellen BrianWright212 5381855 HYPERLINK mailto:brian.wright remains unchanged. We have lowered our 2019 and 2020 estimates to $2.63 and $2.96 from $2.66 and $2.99, respectively. As such, our target price decreases to $34 from $36 due to a lower b

59、ase year (2019) EBIT and a higher discount rate in our DCFmodel.Risks to Our Target Price: The risks to our target price include wage inflation and SWFTsynergies/execution.Share priceperformance50403020A p r- 18l -18O ct- 18Jan - 19KNX.NS& P 5 0 0IN D EXOn 14-Jan-2019 the S&P 500 INDEX closed at 258

60、2.61 Daily Jan12, 2018 - Jan14, 2019, 01/12/18 = US$45.0Quarterly EPSQ1Q2Q3Q42017A0.180.250.25 0.522018E0.440.560.65 0.712019E-Financial and valuationmetricsYear12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20EEPS (CSadj.)(US$)1.212.352.632.96Prev. EPS (US$)-2.662.99P/E rel. (%)124.779.476.274.9Revenue(US$m)2,425.55,346.75,