展望：逆境中的堅持

1、10 January 2019AsiaEQUITIESINDUSTRIALS2019 outlook Persistency in the face of adversityAsia IndustrialsBE AsiaEQUITIESINDUSTRIALS2019 outlook Persistency in the face of adversityAsia IndustrialsThe sector outperformed the broader market in 2018, and investors should selectively add positions in Indu

2、strials in 2019Asias capital expenditure cycle remains mixed in 2019, with government spending better than in the private sectorWe outline 13 Buy ideas across the region as well as three stocks to avoid in 2019HSBCs Asia Industrials team has 13 analysts covering 157 stocks, providing value chain ana

3、lysis and read-across within the region as well as globally. Asias industrials sector saw better in 2018 following of There is light at the end of a we provide our 2019 outlook in the face of Government investment a key demand driver in 2019: After an eventful 2018 and the growing likelihood of a gl

4、obal economic growth slowdown, the outlook for 2019 government investment plans and corporate capital expenditure remains quite mixed. We think government spending will be a key demand driver and remain cautious on the private sector, at least for 1H19. In July 2018, the Chinese government initiated

5、 a policyboostinginfrastructureinvestmenttostabilisedomesticdemand,andtheimpact ofthisshouldcontinuein2019.Selectedleadingindicatorshaveshownearlysignsof a turnaround in 4Q18, such as in the Chinese construction sector. We think that the Asian industrials sector will continue to outperform the broad

6、er market in 2019, and we recommend investors add positions in the sector on a selectivebasis.Prefer global leaders and companies exposed to government investment:In terms of stock selection in 2019 for the Asian industrials sector, we have two broad categories of preference. First are companies tha

7、t stand to benefit from government investment, including CRCC (1186 HK; CP: HKD10.82 Buy; TP: HKD14.90), CSCEC CH; HK; Larsen & Toubro (LT IN; CP: INR1,388; Buy; TP: INR1,580), and Doosan Bobcat (241560 KS; CP: KRW30,700; Buy; TP: KRW46,000). Second are global leaders in their respective sub-sector:

8、 Fanuc (6954 JP; CP: JPY15,935; Buy; TP: JPY22,000), CP: HKD24.65; Buy; TP: HKD35.10). A few Asian industrial stocks with beaten up valuationsandinclude(1052HK;CP:HKD5.76; Buy; TP: HKD9.00), Keppel Corp (KEP SP; CP: SGD5.94; Buy; TP: SGD9.28),and Brilliance Auto (1114 HK; CP: SGD5.94; Buy; TP: SGD9.

9、28).Risks for the sector include softness in auto sales, policy measures affecting property demand in multiple Asian countries, and global trade uncertainty. Exchange rate volatility could also push up input costs for manufacturers. We make no changes to EPS estimates, target prices or ratings in th

10、is report.Anderson Chow*Global Co-Head of Industrials ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited HYPERLINK mailto:andersonchow.hk andersonchow.hk+852 2996 6669* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulati

11、onsThis report replaces the version of the same date and title published earlier, to correct an error in our list of preferredstocksonpage1andinthevaluationandriskstableonpages28-31(onestockhasbeenremoved).Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certific

12、ations in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.Issuer of report: The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation LimitedView HSBC Global Research HYPERLINK / LesleyLiu*Transport Yuexiu Transport InfraHKD14.90 37.7%1052HKHKD5.76Buy HKD9.00 56.3%benefit infrastructure

13、 contractors in 2019AnalystSectorStockAnalystSectorStockBbg code4-Jan priceRating / TP / UpsideInvestment thesisAnderson Chow*ConstructionCRCC1186 HKHKD10.82Buyto Three expressways located in central China become a new growth driverThe company offers a higher-than-peers dividend yield, which we thin

14、k is sustainableHowardLau*Building Anhui Conch 914 HK /600585 CHHKD35.7 / RMB28.4Buy / Buy HKD58.00 / RMB53.0062.5% / 86.7%Indisputable cost leader of the industryGP/tonne expansion driven by supply-side controlCoreyChan*Construction ChinaStateConstruction601668CHRMB5.73Buy 37.9%Attractive dividend

15、yield of around 8% for 2018ec60% of revenue from housing construction provides cash to fund long-term growth opportunities in infrastructure construction (c20% of revenue)Strong balance sheet and deep order-backlog should support 18% earnings CAGR in 2017-20eHelenFang*AutomationFanuc6954 JPJPY15,935

16、BuyJPY22,000 38.1%EmilyLi*Capitalgoods Hikvision002415CHRMB25.91BuyRMB40.00 54.4%Global leader in the robotics industry and beneficiary of increasing Chinese factory automationlevelMarket-leading profitability helped by new software combining AI and IoT for factoryautomationA global leader in the su

17、rveillance industry, which would see stronger growth of 15.4% CAGR between 2017 and 2022 compared with 11.4% historicallyAI-embedded surveillance projects rolled out in China will enhance profitabilityBonanLi*ServicesFocused Photonics300203CHRMB23.65Buy 60.8%Substantially high R&D commitment (R&D-to

18、-Sales ratio around 10%) differentiated the company from peers and secured its long-term competitiveness.Strong government investment, favourable national policies and improving credit conditions will benefit the sector as well as the companyWeiSim*AutosBrilliance1114HKHKD5.75BuyHKD8.50 47.8%We be b

19、y a Strong model cycle combined with luxury exposure should drive better growth for BMW relative to peersTracyLi*Auto Minth Group 425 HKHKD24.65Buy 42.4%Dollar content per car is rising, riding the popularity of aluminiumBenefits from market share expansion of Japanese clients and closer partnership

20、 with European OEMsSomesh Agarwal* Conglomerate Keppel Corp KEPSPSGD5.94BuySGD9.28 56.2%The is a of of New a in PuneetGulati*Construction Larsen&BrianCho*MachineryBobcatLT ININR1,388Buy 13.8%241560KSKRW30,700Buy 49.8%L&Ts focus in its five-year strategic plan (starting FY18) is to improve profitabil

21、ity, reduce working capital intensity, RoE expansion and asset monetisationBest way to play India Industrials story in 2019 due to its diversified exposureEmerging market sales turnaround and engine business contributionUS construction spending is still rising and the US government allocated USD45bn

22、 towards its FY2019 infrastructure budget which should see additional demand for machinery products*Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. and not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Source: Bloomberg, HSBC estimates2AnalystSectorStockBbgAnalystSectorStockBbgcode

23、4-JanpriceRating / TP/DownsideInvestmentthesisSomeshAgarwal* MachineryYZJSGDSP SGD1.27Reduce 31.5%Demand for its core products containerships and bulk carriers have been declining for the last six months, a trend we think will continue into 2019Opaque business model (the company does not disclose th

24、e entire list of buyers of its vessels) and company derives income mostly (c70%) from non-core investmentsSomesh Agarwal* ConstructionSiam Cement SCC TBTHB436ReduceThe cement business in Thailand is ex-growth given thatMaterialsBrianCho*Construction EngineeringCompanyHyundai DevelopmentTHB346 20.6%2

25、94870KS KRW46,000Reduce 23.9%Thailand is a mature cement market with cement consumption of around 475kg/capita (compared with Indonesia and Philippines at around 220kg/capita)Core of will as Companys in-house and contract housing margins are likely to fall due to declines in volume and pricesDomesti

26、c housing volume and prices are the main margin drivers for the company and we continue to have a bearish view on the Korean property market*Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. and not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Source: Bloomberg, HSBC estimates3NA =

27、Not ApplicableSource: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC estimatesNA = Not ApplicableSource: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC estimatesEQUITIES INDUSTRIALS10 January 20194Asia Industrials: Valuation comparison tablesReuters MktcapPriceTPShareperf(%)PE(x)EV/EBITDA(x)_Divyield(%)_ Netgearing(%)ROE (%)PB (x)Companyc

28、ode(USDm)Rating(local)(local)YTD-3M17a18e19e17a18e19e17a18e19e17a18e19e17a18e19e17a18e19eMSCI EM Asia Industrials#(0.9%)(4.9%)MSCI World Industrials#(0.8%)(3.7%)Capital Goods average0.2%(0.1%)ChinaZhuzhou CRRC Times3898.HK3,008Buy43.0546.00(0.8%)(2.8%)17.616.614.212.71.21.4(19)(29)(37)15.014.82.0CRR

29、C Corp1766.HK36,912Buy7.788.801.8%9.9%(9)(9)(16)9.59.61.4CRRC Corporation A601766.SS36,912Hold9.197.801.9%6.4%21.419.116.5(9)(9)(16)9.59.61.7Zoomlion Heavy Industry1157.HK3,826Buy2.803.90(0.7%)(7.6%)14.011.311.320.311.81.8565260Zoomlion Heavy Industry A000157.SZ3,826Hold3.563.500.0%(4.8%)20.216.316.

30、420.311.81.2565260Lonking Holdings3339.HK1,038Buy1.903.00(6.4%)(24.6%)8.59.810.7(21)(20)(20)13.516.40.8Weichai Power A000338.SZ8,868Buy7.6111.50(1.2%)(11.0%)8(7)(19)20.319.81.4Weichai Power2338.HK8,868Buy8.6913.70(2.9%)(4.4%)9.05.76.18(7)(19)20.319.81.4Sinotruk3808.HK3,877Hold11.0015.00(6.8%)(23.2%)

31、3.07.37.9(33)(40)(35)14.216.31.0China YuchaiCYD.N539Buy13.1834.605.9%(24.3%)6.712.514.1(34)(41)(38)11.90.40.4Sany Heavy600031.SS9,171Buy8.0712.61(3.2%)(9.1%)10.77.05.62.04.55.94131168.719.622.0XCMG000425.SZ3,709Buy3.255.330.6%(17.7%)24.913.510.71.12.02.632251.11.00.9Liugong000528.SZ1,321Buy6.2010.59

32、2.1%(26.2%)1.95.06.720201.00.90.9Hangcha603298.SS1,104Buy12.2414.663.6%(1.7%)16.014.211.0(18)(14)(20)14.214.61.8Hengli Hydraulic601100.SS2,472Buy19.2430.98(2.9%)(13.8%)44.420.115.724.514.32.3129210.43.73.2 ASEANRegionYangzijiangShipbuilding YAZG.SI3,710 Reduce 1.270.871.6% (0.8%)8.413.315.08.29.52.7

33、(5)(5)(8)12.16.96.0SembcorpMarineSCMN.SI2,412Hold1.571.751.9% (25.9%) n.m.n.m.n.m.26.747.222.31.3n.a.0.61111201300.6n.m.n.m. IndiaBharat Heavy ElectricalsBHEL.BO3,759Hold71.40 75.00 (3.3%)(2.9%)35.232.517.7(32)(34)(27)ABB IndiaABB.BO3,961Hold1,303.7 1,290.0 (1.2%)(5.7%)52.851.438.735.127.822.0(43)(2

34、8)(34)15.214.06.1Suzlon EnergySUZL.NS831Buy5.459.500.0%(4.4%)3.4n.m.n.m.5.214.2239.1n.a.n.a.n.a.(158)(164)n.m.12.020.1n.m.n.m.n.m.Crompton GreavesCGPO.NS398Hold44.30 44.00 (3.1%)0.1%n.m.n.m.n.m.7.08.96.5n.a.n.a.n.a.185348n.m.n.m.n.m.0.71.01.1Siemens IndiaSIEM.BO5,426Hold1,062.7 1,020.0 0.0%10.3%53.7

35、42.30.8(53)(44)(48)9.94.64.2Voltas LtdVOLT.BO2,544Hold536.15 625.00 (3.5%)4.0%34.931.026.526.422.40.9(0)(0)(0)17.815.94.0Thermax IndiaTHMX.BO1,948Hold1,140.3 1,030.0 0.8%23.9%43.858.542.628.730.00.7(4)(3)812.78.84.6Cummins IndiaCUMM.BO3,306Hold831.90 780.00 (2.0%)23.1%31.434.429.927.530.42.03(6)(9)2

36、1.317.45.5Havells IndiaHVEL.BO6,085Buy678.55 720.00 (2.3%)12.0%71.060.551.348.90.60.7(58)(38)(37)20.220.020.913.011.410.1 KoreaSamsung Heavy Industries010140.KS4,346Buy7,750 11,000 4.6% (7.4%)n.m.n.m.23.4-90.812.5n.a.n.a.1.9512722n.m.n.m.3.0Hyundai Heavy Industries009540.KS8,716Buy138,500 180,000 7.

37、8% (1.8%)n.m.69.223.3n.a.n.a.1.410(18)(2)n.m.0.70.8Doosan Corporation000150.KS1,964Buy100,000 148,000 (10.3%) (27.0%)125115921.78.60.6Doosan Infracore042670.KS1,385Buy7,480 14,500 (1.4%) (23.0%)n.a.n.a.n.a.(13)(24)(13)1.01.10.9Doosan Bobcat241560.KS2,737Buy30,700 46,000 (2.5%) (23.0%)12.011.72.62723

38、Note: Priced at close of 4 January 2019EQUITIES EQUITIES INDUSTRIALS10 January 20195Asia Industrials: Valuation comparison tablesReutersPriceTPShare perf(%)PE (x)EV/EBITDA(x)_Divyield (%)_ Netgearing(%)ROE (%)PB (x)Companycode(USDm) Rating(local)(local)YTD-3M17a18e19e17a18e19e17a18e19e17a18e19e17a18

39、e19e17a18e19eMSCI EM Asia Industrials#(0.9%) (4.9%)MSCI World Industrials#(0.8%) (3.7%)Construction average(0.5%) (3.0%)ChinaCRCC1186.HK21,436 Buy10.8214.90(0.4%) 4.8%8.02.63.3(2)1(1)11.412.30.7CRCC A601186.SS 21,436 Buy11.0813.301.9% (0.6%)4.02.32.8(2)1(1)11.412.314.31.00.90.9CCCC1800.HK23,465 Buy7

40、.309.10(1.4%) (8.3%)71838310.510.60.5CCCC A601800.SS 23,465 Reduce11.308.100.4% (11.6%)6483839.310.610.91.01.00.9CRG0390.HK22,846 Buy7.108.60(0.4%) (7.8%)6.35.02.336333411.311.411.51.00.80.7CRG A601390.SS 22,846 Hold7.017.600.3% (9.8%)6.35.02.036333411.311.40.8CSCI3311.HK3,926Buy6.099.70(2.1%) (26.0

41、%)41464013.213.70.7China Gezhouba600068.SS 4,280Buy6.3810.500.9% (12.5%)86798517.317.90.9Power Construction Corpor601669.SS 11,144 Hold5.005.302.9% (6.5%)11.011.02.413713714111.010.311.01.01.00.9MCC A601618.SS 8,748Buy3.104.70(0.3%) (13.2%)7.77.03.44647558.49.411.21.00.90.9China State Construction60

42、1668.SS 35,048 Buy5.737.900.5% 4.4%6.03.13.930415217.117.00.9 ASEANRegionIJM BerhadIJMS.KL1,398Buy1.592.19(1.9%) (11.2%)8.816.511.27.910.03.835414DMCIDMC.PS3,376Buy12.7813.300.0% 8.3%11.43.84.200020.620.218.9n.a.n.a.n.a.CH KarnchangCK.BK1,320Reduce25.0021.300.0% (4.8%)23.424.724.012713312Gamuda Berh

43、adGAMU.KL1,367Buy2.293.17(2.1%) (30.2%)8.02.04.35452469.80.70.7Sino ThaiSTEC.BK1,012Reduce21.3016.904.4% (12.3%)23.930.823.7-10.38.4n.a.1.01.3(0)(0)(0)13.911.013.1n.a.n.a.n.a.Wijaya KaryaWIKA.JK1,122Buy1,7851,4457.9% 32.2%13.313.02.158958810.01.21.1 KoreaDaewoo E&C047040.KS1,988Hold5,3805,200(0.2%)

44、(10.9%)n.a.n.a.n.a.65452612.115.413.51.00.90.8Doosan Engineering011160.KS97Hold1,4801,6004.6% (29.9%)n.m.n.m.4.9n.a.n.a.n.a.313938n.m.n.m.0.1GS E&C006360.KS2,983Buy42,30060,000(3.3%) (21.8%)n.m.6.57.034218n.m.13.911.51.00.90.8Hyundai Development294870.KS2,236Reduce46,00035,000(4.6%) (8.7%)n.m.5.76.7

45、-3.03.0n.a.2.23.30(18)(27)0.020.415.5n.a.1.11.0Hyundai E&C000720.KS5,460Hold55,00051,0000.7% (20.1%)30.40.90.92(11)(14)Samsung C&T028260.KS 18,150 Buy 107,000 170,000 1.4% (14.1%)32.017.017.41110Samsung Engineering028050.KS 3,059 Reduce 17,550 10,000 (0.3%) (10.7%)n.m.38.130.0n.a.n.a.n.a.495741n.m.3

46、.12.8Daelim Industrial000210.KS 3,155Buy 97,900 120,000 (4.5%) 12.5%6.96.03.01.00.30.3212317 IndiaNote: Priced at close of 4 January 2019 NA = Not ApplicableSource: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC estimatesLarsen&ToubroLART.BO 27,908 Buy 1,388.1 1,580 (3.7%) 10.3% Note: Priced at close of 4 January 2019

47、NA = Not ApplicableSource: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC estimatesAsia Industrials: Valuation comparison tablesReutersPriceTPShare perf(%)PE (x)EV/EBITDA (x) _Div yield (%)_ Net gearing (%)ROE (%)PB (x)EQUITIES INDUSTRIALS10 January 20196Companycode(USDm) Rating (local) EQUITIES INDUSTRIALS10 January 2

48、0196EM(0.9%) (4.9%) BuildingterialsSector average BuildingterialsSector average(3.0%) (9.6%)Anhui Conch0914.HK22,472Buy35.7058.00(6.1%) (19.5%)3.88.08.74(2)(14)Anhui Conch A600585.SS22,472Buy28.4053.00(3.0%) (22.8%)4(2)(14)BBMG2009.HK4,762Hold2.321.90(6.1%) (9.4%)90887BBMG Corp A601992.SS4,762Reduce

49、3.351.70(4.3%) (9.7%)15.89.52.090887CNBM3323.HK2,519Buy5.109.00(4.9%) (22.8%)1491301078.015.50.5CR Cement1313.HK6,026Buy6.7610.50(4.1%) (20.6%)7.73.02.54.08.59.0391(11)12.822.61.0Asia Cement China0743.HK1,008Buy5.049.80(8.2%) (35.9%)5.12.01.43.514.215.73916(2)6.322.30.5Taiwan Cement1101.TW5,864Buy35

50、.4548.00(0.4%) (10.9%)18.07.57.625(1)(5)6.214.614.01.01.01.1Asia Cement1102.TW3,685Buy33.8548.00(0.3%) (14.7%)8.04.08.449423China Conch Venture0586.HK5,103Buy22.1536.00(4.9%) (11.0%)23.917.85.0(4)91117.824.41.3Siam Cement CompanySCC.BK16,304Reduce436.00346.000.0% 0.0%9.57.77.055534122.015.714.82.01.

51、81.6Siam City CementSCCC.BK2,015Hold217.00251.005.9% (14.2%)35.623.619.013.811.65.58492916.48.01.9Semen IndonesiaSMGR.JK4,780Buy11,50010,6000.0% 29.9%33.933.826.614.41.21.22118147.02.32.1IndocementINTP.JK4,714Buy18,27517,700(0.9%) 16.4%19.224.63.8(33)(25)(24)CEMEX Hldgs PhilippinesCHP.PS195Buy1.972.

52、603.7% (12.4%)15.522.38.4n.a.n.a.n.a.46435 nseSector average3.1%(6.7%)Jonhon002179.SZ4,041Buy34.5044.702.4%(21.6%)33.124.818.922.917.713.6n.a.0.30.4(17)(11)(13)18.320.43.8Hikvision002415.SZ34,830Buy25.9140.000.6%(9.8%)25.419.915.920.816.012.62.02.53.1(42)(40)(36)34.436.05.4Avichina Industry Tech2357

53、.HK3,907Buy4.906.80(0.4%)(3.5%)21.019.41.0(7)(4)(4)CSSC Offshore & marine0317.HK1,630Buy5.2924.603.5%(15.5%)74.712.511.6(10)(10)(8)& A600685.SS1,630Buy10.2821.207.5%(7.8%)n.m.27.725.8159.90.91.0(10)(10)(8)China Avionics System600372.SS3,547Buy13.8423.906.6%(4.3%)44.939.131.428.024.60.642383Avic Hong

54、du600316.SS1,124Reduce10.765.608.8%14.7%n.m.n.m.93.758.30.20.334272Avic Aviation Engine600893.SS7,290Buy22.2438.402.4%(7.6%)18.61.01.333Haige Communications002465.SZ2,783Buy8.2811.006.2%(5.9%)65.131.512.81.02.03.0(6)(10)(8)4.07.32.2Avic Electromechanical002013.SZ3,701Buy7.009.707.5%(16.7%)29.128.525

55、.218.315.30.41227.29.910.32.02.72.5Avic Aircraft000768.SZ5,607Buy13.9021.505.0%(12.5%)81.633.022.628.716.52.2(28)(22)(16)3.07.32.2Avi Helicopter600038.SS3,401Buy39.6045.006.0%(0.7%)51.336.827.423.718.51.1(41)(45)(50)6.58.52.8CSICL601989.SS15,033Buy4.515.806.1%6.1%n.m.40.623.417.00.71.3(51)(52)(54)Cr

56、atesSector average1.5%8.2%SembCorp IndustriesSCIL.SI3,377Buy2.573.411.2%(12.9%)20.013.49.087999Keppel CorpKPLM.SI7,940Buy5.949.280.5%(16.3%)15.210.84.4464440Metro Pacific InvMPI.PS2,910Buy4.857.204.5%1.9%10.811.42.46582919.00.90.8Astra InternationalASII.JK23,689Hold8,350.07,800.01.5%20.1%17.917.515.

57、312.010.810.028241516.014.92.3 Note: Priced at close of 4 January 2019 NA = Not ApplicableNote: Priced at close of 4 January 2019 NA = Not ApplicableSource: Refinitiv Datastream, HSBC estimatesAsia Industrials: Valuation comparison tablesReutersPriceTPShare perf(%)PE (x)EV/EBITDA (x) _Div yield (%)_

58、 Net gearing (%)ROE (%)PB (x)EQUITIES INDUSTRIALS10 January 20197Companycode(USDm) Rating (local) EQUITIES INDUSTRIALS10 January 20197EM(0.9%) (4.9%)MSCIWorldIndustrials#(0.8%) (3.7%) AutosandDealerships Sectoraverage(2.4%) (9.3%)Geely0175.HK13,622 Hold11.88 15.90 (13.9%)(16.5%) 9.56.85.85.44.03.02.

59、33.03.6(35)(25)(42)34.233.530.22.71.91.5GreatWall2333.HK6,679 Reduce 4.343.50 (3.3%) (8.4%)6.99.75.92.33.12.84.53.25.318282910.47.011.40.70.70.6Great WallMotorA601633.SS 2,117 Reduce 4.953.204.4% (24.7%) 9.012.67.64.85.75.13.42.44.018282910.47.011.40.90.90.8BrillianceAuto1114.HK3,704Buy5.758.50 (1.4

60、%) (47.7%) 5.23.63.3-13.0-1.91.83.7(3)(3)(5)19.623.621.01.00.80.6GACGroup2238.HK13,733 Buy7.458.90 (4.6%) (5.3%)4.15.35.2-10.20.18.16.16.6(68)(47)(49)19.417.116.00.70.90.8GACGroupA601238.SS 13,733 Reduce 10.388.100.9% (6.1%)6.48.58.22.13.81.95.13.94.1(68)(47)(49)19.417.116.01.11.41.2YongdaAuto3669.H