新華制藥分析報(bào)告

新華制藥分析報(bào)告000756課程名稱：投資學(xué)姓名：虞玉姣學(xué)號：51143001096班級：2014級金融專碩目錄一指數(shù)模型分析 31.1股票超額收益率計(jì)算 31.2與三級行業(yè)平均值比較 51.3與市場指數(shù)比較 111.4指數(shù)模型回歸 161.5α估計(jì) 171.6β估計(jì) 171.7β調(diào)整 17二基本面分析 182.1公司介紹 182.2產(chǎn)品分析 182.3同行業(yè)分析 202.3.1行業(yè)地位比較 202.3.2盈利能力比較 212.3.3償債能力比較 242.3.4成長能力比較 262.3.5股利政策比較 262.4競爭優(yōu)勢 272.5風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析 272.6發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略 282.6.1拓展制劑產(chǎn)品 282.6.2拓展醫(yī)藥電商業(yè)務(wù) 282.6.3進(jìn)一步降低成本 292.6.4總體趨穩(wěn)戰(zhàn)略 292.7投資建議 29一指數(shù)模型分析1.1股票超額收益率計(jì)算2010.1-2015.5新華制藥的股價(jià)月度數(shù)據(jù)及月度無風(fēng)險(xiǎn)利率的數(shù)據(jù)來自國泰安數(shù)據(jù)庫，具體如下表所示。由收盤價(jià)和開盤價(jià)可計(jì)算出新華制藥每月的收益率，然后減去每月相應(yīng)的無風(fēng)險(xiǎn)收益率，就是它的超額收益率。交易月份月開盤價(jià)月收盤價(jià)新華制藥收益率月度無風(fēng)險(xiǎn)利率新華制藥超額收益率2010-018.449.138.1754%0.1856%7.9898%2010-029.148.99-1.6411%0.1856%-1.8267%2010-0399.151.6667%0.1856%1.4811%2010-049.228.77-4.8807%0.1856%-5.0663%2010-058.677.88-9.1119%0.1856%-9.2975%2010-067.796.61-15.1476%0.1856%-15.3332%2010-076.567.219.9085%0.1856%9.7229%2010-087.19811.2656%0.1856%11.0800%2010-0988.121.5000%0.1856%1.3144%2010-108.188.291.3447%0.1935%1.1512%2010-118.368.62.8708%0.2060%2.6648%2010-128.477.67-9.4451%0.2099%-9.6550%2011-017.77.26-5.7143%0.2263%-5.9406%2011-027.257.9810.0690%0.2448%9.8242%2011-037.987.7-3.5088%0.2466%-3.7554%2011-047.77.781.0390%0.2635%0.7754%2011-057.797.15-8.2157%0.2669%-8.4826%2011-067.167.636.5642%0.2669%6.2973%2011-077.637.25-4.9803%0.2832%-5.2635%2011-087.267-3.5813%0.2871%-3.8684%2011-0976.61-5.5714%0.2871%-5.8585%2011-106.666.923.9039%0.2871%3.6168%2011-116.896.45-6.3861%0.2871%-6.6732%2011-126.65.25-20.4545%0.2871%-20.7416%2012-015.335.18-2.8143%0.2871%-3.1014%2012-025.185.7410.8108%0.2871%10.5237%2012-035.715.26-7.8809%0.2871%-8.1680%2012-045.245.668.0153%0.2871%7.7282%2012-055.725.56-2.7972%0.2871%-3.0843%2012-065.555.25-5.4054%0.2716%-5.6770%2012-075.264.65-11.5970%0.2499%-11.8468%2012-084.664.782.5751%0.2466%2.3285%2012-094.764.64-2.5210%0.2466%-2.7676%2012-104.644.58-1.2931%0.2466%-1.5397%2012-114.574.12-9.8468%0.2466%-10.0934%2012-124.094.428.0685%0.2466%7.8219%2013-014.434.634.5147%0.2466%4.2681%2013-024.644.793.2328%0.2466%2.9862%2013-034.85.3210.8333%0.2466%10.5867%2013-045.324.61-13.3459%0.2466%-13.5925%2013-054.625.089.9567%0.2466%9.7101%2013-065.093.91-23.1827%0.2466%-23.4293%2013-073.94.074.3590%0.2466%4.1124%2013-084.044.5512.6238%0.2466%12.3772%2013-094.574.723.2823%0.2466%3.0357%2013-104.734.55-3.8055%0.2466%-4.0521%2013-114.554.815.7143%0.2466%5.4677%2013-124.754.852.1053%0.2466%1.8587%2014-014.864.992.6749%0.2466%2.4283%2014-024.936.5132.0487%0.2466%31.8021%2014-036.515.64-13.3641%0.2466%-13.6107%2014-045.665.24-7.4205%0.2466%-7.6671%2014-055.225.413.6398%0.2466%3.3932%2014-065.445.511.2868%0.2466%1.0402%2014-075.526.3815.5797%0.2466%15.3331%2014-086.66.5-1.5152%0.2466%-1.7618%2014-096.527.3813.1902%0.2466%12.9436%2014-107.478.8418.3400%0.2466%18.0934%2014-118.858.37-5.4237%0.2405%-5.6642%2014-128.367.97-4.6651%0.2263%-4.8914%2015-017.938.34.6658%0.2263%4.4395%2015-028.268.513.0266%0.2263%2.8003%2015-038.5211.2431.9249%0.2060%31.7189%2015-0411.2214.6230.3030%0.2060%30.0970%2015-0514.615.274.5890%0.1922%4.3969%1.2與三級行業(yè)平均值比較新華制藥的三級行業(yè)分類為：醫(yī)藥生物——化學(xué)制藥——化學(xué)原料藥，而化學(xué)原料藥下一共有26家上市公司，股票代碼如下。股票代碼股票簡稱股票代碼股票簡稱股票代碼股票簡稱股票代碼股票簡稱300233金城醫(yī)藥002001新和成002675東誠藥業(yè)600267海正藥業(yè)002399海普瑞300401花園生物300255常山藥業(yè)000952廣濟(jì)藥業(yè)002099海翔藥業(yè)000739普洛藥業(yè)600521華海藥業(yè)600216浙江醫(yī)藥603456九洲藥業(yè)000756新華制藥300363博騰股份000597東北制藥002550千紅制藥002365永安藥業(yè)300267爾康制藥000788北大醫(yī)藥002020京新藥業(yè)600488天藥股份600666西南藥業(yè)300452山河藥輔002626金達(dá)威600812華北制藥從國泰安下載這26家公司65個(gè)月的股價(jià)數(shù)據(jù)，計(jì)算相應(yīng)的收益率，然后以各家公司的市值占比為權(quán)重進(jìn)行加權(quán)平均，即可得出這個(gè)行業(yè)每個(gè)月的收益率均值。以計(jì)算出的行業(yè)收益率減去相應(yīng)的每月無風(fēng)險(xiǎn)收益率，即可得出行業(yè)的每月超額收益率。計(jì)算結(jié)果如下表所示：交易月份行業(yè)收益率月度無風(fēng)險(xiǎn)利率行業(yè)超額收益率新華制藥超額收益率2010-01-0.8582%0.1856%-1.0438%7.9898%2010-022.9889%0.1856%2.8033%-1.8267%2010-03-1.7058%0.1856%-1.8914%1.4811%2010-044.6554%0.1856%4.4698%-5.0663%2010-05-12.3163%0.1856%-12.5019%-9.2975%2010-06-16.1030%0.1856%-16.2886%-15.3332%2010-0714.5755%0.1856%14.3899%9.7229%2010-089.4441%0.1856%9.2585%11.0800%2010-094.3254%0.1856%4.1398%1.3144%2010-10-2.0021%0.1935%-2.1956%1.1512%2010-1113.6834%0.2060%13.4774%2.6648%2010-12-9.0968%0.2099%-9.3067%-9.6550%2011-01-7.0567%0.2263%-7.2830%-5.9406%2011-026.5730%0.2448%6.3282%9.8242%2011-03-0.5068%0.2466%-0.7534%-3.7554%2011-04-14.6973%0.2635%-14.9608%0.7754%2011-05-11.0474%0.2669%-11.3143%-8.4826%2011-067.3272%0.2669%7.0603%6.2973%2011-072.4730%0.2832%2.1898%-5.2635%2011-08-5.8023%0.2871%-6.0894%-3.8684%2011-09-15.4691%0.2871%-15.7562%-5.8585%2011-104.1911%0.2871%3.9040%3.6168%2011-11-1.1109%0.2871%-1.3980%-6.6732%2011-12-18.2176%0.2871%-18.5047%-20.7416%2012-01-5.7373%0.2871%-6.0244%-3.1014%2012-0211.9878%0.2871%11.7007%10.5237%2012-03-7.9604%0.2871%-8.2475%-8.1680%2012-041.6620%0.2871%1.3749%7.7282%2012-05-3.3864%0.2871%-3.6735%-3.0843%2012-060.7385%0.2716%0.4669%-5.6770%2012-07-13.8782%0.2499%-14.1281%-11.8468%2012-081.3343%0.2466%1.0877%2.3285%2012-092.4494%0.2466%2.2028%-2.7676%2012-10-1.5001%0.2466%-1.7467%-1.5397%2012-11-11.9711%0.2466%-12.2177%-10.0934%2012-1212.5428%0.2466%12.2962%7.8219%2013-018.8463%0.2466%8.5997%4.2681%2013-026.5230%0.2466%6.2764%2.9862%2013-030.0641%0.2466%-0.1825%10.5867%2013-04-8.2667%0.2466%-8.5133%-13.5925%2013-0512.9707%0.2466%12.7241%9.7101%2013-06-17.1392%0.2466%-17.3858%-23.4293%2013-078.7801%0.2466%8.5335%4.1124%2013-085.4819%0.2466%5.2353%12.3772%2013-0912.6654%0.2466%12.4188%3.0357%2013-10-13.7712%0.2466%-14.0178%-4.0521%2013-117.0076%0.2466%6.7610%5.4677%2013-120.3502%0.2466%0.1036%1.8587%2014-010.6355%0.2466%0.3889%2.4283%2014-0210.4642%0.2466%10.2176%31.8021%2014-03-8.6158%0.2466%-8.8624%-13.6107%2014-04-0.4123%0.2466%-0.6589%-7.6671%2014-05-1.6433%0.2466%-1.8899%3.3932%2014-063.6712%0.2466%3.4246%1.0402%2014-077.3630%0.2466%7.1164%15.3331%2014-088.1542%0.2466%7.9076%-1.7618%2014-0910.1203%0.2466%9.8737%12.9436%2014-1013.5294%0.2466%13.2828%18.0934%2014-11-1.2224%0.2405%-1.4629%-5.6642%2014-12-6.7722%0.2263%-6.9985%-4.8914%2015-015.7539%0.2263%5.5276%4.4395%2015-023.9559%0.2263%3.7296%2.8003%2015-0320.0079%0.2060%19.8019%31.7189%2015-045.5434%0.2060%5.3374%30.0970%2015-0529.0999%0.1922%28.9077%4.3969%然后以上表數(shù)據(jù)畫出新華制藥和三級行業(yè)均值的散點(diǎn)圖如下所示：由圖中看出新華制藥的超額收益率和行業(yè)均值的走向大致趨同，行業(yè)總體的超額收益率上升或下降時(shí)，新華制藥的超額收益率也相應(yīng)地呈上升或下降趨勢，只是兩者上升或下降的幅度不同。但個(gè)別月份的走向仍有差異較大的情況。這主要是由于新華制藥在這26家公司中的市值占比較小，它與行業(yè)總體的收益率走向就不會完全相近。具體地，如下表所示，2010年5月新華制藥市值為46.9億，而三級行業(yè)總市值為376.9億，新華制藥的市值占比僅為1.24%，所以當(dāng)月新華制藥的超額收益率為4.39%，而行業(yè)的超額收益率均值卻有28.91%，差異較大。這說明新華制藥的收益率情況對行業(yè)總體超額收益率的影響較小。交易月份三級行業(yè)總市值新華制藥總市值市值占比2010-0194,748,003,3202,805,766,1402.96%2010-0298,342,604,2202,762,742,3402.81%2010-03100,543,483,1402,811,912,3902.80%2010-04106,536,053,6402,695,133,5202.53%2010-05152,332,333,9802,421,625,1001.59%2010-06125,705,186,2802,031,337,8101.62%2010-07143,450,103,8602,215,725,5001.54%2010-08154,622,351,0902,458,502,6401.59%2010-09159,116,372,3502,495,380,1801.57%2010-10163,635,996,8102,547,623,3601.56%2010-11183,775,332,6702,642,890,3401.44%2010-12164,951,362,3102,357,089,4101.43%2011-01153,664,085,9802,231,091,1501.45%2011-02169,533,262,9202,452,356,3801.45%2011-03171,282,039,1902,366,308,7901.38%2011-04150,506,756,0102,390,893,8201.59%2011-05135,020,551,2702,197,286,7301.63%2011-06146,639,716,2102,344,796,8901.60%2011-07150,006,892,3002,228,018,0201.49%2011-08143,529,594,2402,151,189,8101.50%2011-09124,652,325,3402,031,337,8101.63%2011-10134,149,930,8002,126,604,7801.59%2011-11131,573,523,2301,982,167,7501.51%2011-12108,363,456,0501,613,392,3601.49%2012-01101,587,675,8701,591,880,4601.57%2012-02115,876,868,6701,763,975,6401.52%2012-03105,777,419,5001,616,465,4901.53%2012-04108,528,112,9701,739,390,6201.60%2012-05116,295,928,7301,708,659,3301.47%2012-06116,478,711,1901,613,392,3601.39%2012-07101,186,272,9101,429,004,6601.41%2012-08103,556,686,0301,468,955,3301.42%2012-09105,498,084,6001,425,931,5301.35%2012-10106,014,059,7601,407,492,7601.33%2012-1192,931,487,5901,266,128,8601.36%2012-12104,243,074,4201,358,322,7101.30%2013-01114,648,651,9101,422,858,4001.24%2013-02119,551,247,4701,472,028,4601.23%2013-03120,009,301,0201,634,904,2601.36%2013-04114,296,142,1501,416,712,1501.24%2013-05131,505,074,6901,561,149,1801.19%2013-06110,283,735,2201,201,593,1701.09%2013-07118,904,139,5601,250,763,2201.05%2013-08124,923,671,7801,398,273,3801.12%2013-09139,601,889,0201,450,516,5601.04%2013-10108,035,587,8301,398,273,3801.29%2013-11112,683,941,8501,478,174,7101.31%2013-12127,782,101,7301,490,467,2301.17%2014-01131,914,317,4401,533,491,0201.16%2014-02143,382,099,0702,000,606,5201.40%2014-03135,017,471,7001,733,244,3601.28%2014-04136,769,431,7401,610,319,2301.18%2014-05132,262,750,0101,662,562,4101.26%2014-06148,155,029,6701,693,293,6901.14%2014-07161,851,168,7601,960,655,8601.21%2014-08172,495,375,7201,997,533,4001.16%2014-09193,015,818,8102,267,968,6901.18%2014-10215,068,335,2402,716,645,4201.26%2014-11190,470,593,4802,572,208,3901.35%2014-12194,579,342,2102,449,283,2601.26%2015-01199,464,772,5502,550,696,4901.28%2015-02206,160,971,3102,615,232,1801.27%2015-03257,136,787,9203,454,196,2101.34%2015-04292,920,167,9504,492,913,5701.53%2015-05376,950,994,3804,692,666,9101.24%1.3與市場指數(shù)比較在指數(shù)的選擇上，由于新華制藥是深圳主板的上市公司，所以暫時(shí)不考慮上證相關(guān)指數(shù)。從國泰安數(shù)據(jù)庫下載了深證成指、滬深300指數(shù)、深證綜指、滬深300醫(yī)藥衛(wèi)生指數(shù)這四個(gè)市場指數(shù)65個(gè)月的點(diǎn)數(shù)情況，并計(jì)算出相應(yīng)的收益率，再減去無風(fēng)險(xiǎn)收益率，即為超額收益率。最后結(jié)果如下表：交易月份月無風(fēng)險(xiǎn)利率新華制藥收益率新華制藥超額收益率深證成指收益率滬深300收益率深證綜指收益率滬深300醫(yī)藥衛(wèi)生指數(shù)深證成指超額收益率滬深300超額收益率深證綜指超額收益率滬深300醫(yī)藥衛(wèi)生指數(shù)超額收益率2010-010.1856%8.18%7.99%-11.83%-10.81%-7.20%0.17%-12.02%-10.99%-7.38%-0.01%2010-020.1856%-1.64%-1.83%2.57%2.61%4.94%3.65%2.38%2.42%4.75%3.47%2010-030.1856%1.67%1.48%0.11%1.69%3.20%-3.23%-0.08%1.50%3.01%-3.42%2010-040.1856%-4.88%-5.07%-10.79%-8.43%-8.21%7.31%-10.97%-8.62%-8.40%7.12%2010-050.1856%-9.11%-9.30%-6.89%-7.73%-5.40%2.58%-7.07%-7.91%-5.59%2.40%2010-060.1856%-15.15%-15.33%-7.28%-6.98%-7.61%-13.66%-7.46%-7.16%-7.79%-13.85%2010-070.1856%9.91%9.72%15.03%12.16%14.03%10.37%14.84%11.97%13.85%10.18%2010-080.1856%11.27%11.08%5.09%1.22%8.41%8.56%4.91%1.03%8.22%8.37%2010-090.1856%1.50%1.31%0.87%0.96%0.13%6.99%0.69%0.77%-0.06%6.81%2010-100.1935%1.34%1.15%15.29%13.97%10.68%4.13%15.09%13.78%10.49%3.94%2010-110.2060%2.87%2.66%-7.84%-7.47%0.02%4.10%-8.04%-7.68%-0.19%3.90%2010-120.2099%-9.45%-9.66%1.28%0.03%-0.91%-6.41%1.07%-0.18%-1.12%-6.61%2011-010.2263%-5.71%-5.94%-4.64%-2.51%-7.77%-8.22%-4.87%-2.73%-8.00%-8.44%2011-020.2448%10.07%9.82%7.12%5.06%8.08%4.03%6.88%4.82%7.83%3.79%2011-030.2466%-3.51%-3.76%-2.70%-0.57%-3.28%-6.79%-2.94%-0.81%-3.53%-7.04%2011-040.2635%1.04%0.78%-1.96%-1.08%-4.25%-3.12%-2.23%-1.34%-4.51%-3.39%2011-050.2669%-8.22%-8.48%-5.27%-5.99%-7.38%-5.36%-5.54%-6.26%-7.65%-5.63%2011-060.2669%6.56%6.30%3.97%1.60%4.04%0.91%3.70%1.34%3.77%0.64%2011-070.2832%-4.98%-5.26%-1.30%-2.62%1.72%5.18%-1.59%-2.91%1.43%4.89%2011-080.2871%-3.58%-3.87%-4.82%-4.12%-2.83%-2.29%-5.11%-4.41%-3.12%-2.58%2011-090.2871%-5.57%-5.86%-9.91%-9.50%-12.24%-12.12%-10.20%-9.79%-12.53%-12.41%2011-100.2871%3.90%3.62%1.60%4.13%3.37%2.69%1.31%3.85%3.08%2.40%2011-110.2871%-6.39%-6.67%-6.70%-5.65%-3.71%1.86%-6.98%-5.94%-3.99%1.57%2011-120.2871%-20.45%-20.74%-10.60%-9.65%-15.08%-15.04%-10.89%-9.93%-15.37%-15.32%2012-010.2871%-2.81%-3.10%3.60%4.35%-1.92%-6.81%3.31%4.06%-2.21%-7.10%2012-020.2871%10.81%10.52%8.38%7.16%12.12%9.21%8.09%6.87%11.83%8.92%2012-030.2871%-7.88%-8.17%-6.00%-6.40%-6.46%-7.42%-6.29%-6.69%-6.75%-7.71%2012-040.2871%8.02%7.73%8.18%7.22%5.49%2.39%7.89%6.94%5.20%2.10%2012-050.2871%-2.80%-3.08%-1.73%-1.08%1.81%4.24%-2.01%-1.36%1.52%3.95%2012-060.2716%-5.41%-5.68%-6.33%-6.53%-4.74%5.59%-6.60%-6.80%-5.01%5.32%2012-070.2499%-11.60%-11.85%-5.39%-5.69%-8.24%-4.35%-5.64%-5.94%-8.49%-4.60%2012-080.2466%2.58%2.33%-9.25%-5.46%-1.16%0.29%-9.49%-5.70%-1.41%0.05%2012-090.2466%-2.52%-2.77%5.58%4.18%1.93%4.91%5.34%3.93%1.68%4.66%2012-100.2466%-1.29%-1.54%-2.40%-1.62%-1.08%2.51%-2.65%-1.87%-1.33%2.26%2012-110.2466%-9.85%-10.09%-6.72%-5.18%-10.92%-9.85%-6.97%-5.43%-11.16%-10.10%2012-120.2466%8.07%7.82%15.35%18.08%17.18%8.73%15.10%17.83%16.94%8.48%2013-010.2466%4.51%4.27%5.04%5.29%5.51%11.42%4.79%5.05%5.26%11.17%2013-020.2466%3.23%2.99%-0.08%-0.14%3.46%5.71%-0.32%-0.39%3.22%5.47%2013-030.2466%10.83%10.59%-7.70%-6.62%-3.97%3.77%-7.94%-6.86%-4.21%3.53%2013-040.2466%-13.35%-13.59%-2.36%-1.57%-1.57%-5.73%-2.61%-1.82%-1.82%-5.98%2013-050.2466%9.96%9.71%7.10%7.06%14.01%9.22%6.86%6.81%13.77%8.97%2013-060.2466%-23.18%-23.43%-16.90%-15.55%-14.22%-8.99%-17.15%-15.80%-14.46%-9.24%2013-070.2466%4.36%4.11%1.52%0.27%6.55%10.43%1.27%0.02%6.31%10.18%2013-080.2466%12.62%12.38%4.90%4.89%5.42%-3.00%4.65%4.65%5.18%-3.24%2013-090.2466%3.28%3.04%3.65%3.84%6.11%5.97%3.40%3.59%5.87%5.72%2013-100.2466%-3.81%-4.05%-0.71%-1.36%-3.44%-6.03%-0.96%-1.61%-3.69%-6.28%2013-110.2466%5.71%5.47%1.29%2.74%7.08%1.48%1.04%2.49%6.84%1.24%2013-120.2466%2.11%1.86%-4.01%-3.88%-0.39%1.94%-4.26%-4.12%-0.64%1.70%2014-010.2466%2.67%2.43%-6.32%-5.21%2.40%-4.32%-6.57%-5.45%2.16%-4.57%2014-020.2466%32.05%31.80%-1.98%-0.38%1.47%-0.68%-2.23%-0.63%1.22%-0.92%2014-030.2466%-13.36%-13.61%-2.18%-1.27%-4.65%-5.23%-2.43%-1.52%-4.89%-5.48%2014-040.2466%-7.42%-7.67%1.79%0.70%-1.07%-1.84%1.55%0.45%-1.31%-2.08%2014-050.2466%3.64%3.39%1.04%0.18%2.76%0.00%0.79%-0.07%2.52%-0.25%2014-060.2466%1.29%1.04%-0.30%0.35%4.04%1.26%-0.55%0.10%3.79%1.01%2014-070.2466%15.58%15.33%8.40%8.35%5.67%3.41%8.15%8.10%5.42%3.17%2014-080.2466%-1.52%-1.76%-0.99%-0.13%4.83%-1.49%-1.23%-0.37%4.58%-1.74%2014-090.2466%13.19%12.94%2.90%4.70%9.88%7.20%2.65%4.45%9.63%6.96%2014-100.2466%18.34%18.09%1.12%1.93%0.93%3.31%0.88%1.68%0.68%3.06%2014-110.2405%-5.42%-5.66%9.18%11.65%5.05%1.70%8.94%11.41%4.81%1.45%2014-120.2263%-4.67%-4.89%21.98%25.06%-0.39%2.61%21.76%24.83%-0.62%2.39%2015-010.2263%4.67%4.44%0.00%-3.69%6.55%4.83%-0.23%-3.92%6.32%4.60%2015-020.2263%3.03%2.80%7.36%6.33%9.06%3.11%7.13%6.10%8.84%2.88%2015-030.2060%31.92%31.72%10.87%12.43%19.35%12.35%10.67%12.22%19.14%12.14%2015-040.2060%30.30%30.10%12.37%17.06%15.64%13.17%12.16%16.86%15.43%12.96%2015-050.1922%4.59%4.40%8.45%1.75%22.78%13.05%8.25%1.56%22.59%12.86%為了從以上指數(shù)中選擇出對新華制藥的相關(guān)性最強(qiáng)的一個(gè)指數(shù)，分別作各指數(shù)與新華制藥超額收益的趨勢線，然后從中選擇。具體如下：由以上可知，新華制藥與深證綜指的相關(guān)性最高，所以就把深證綜指作為解釋變量。兩者散點(diǎn)圖如下，1.4指數(shù)模型回歸回歸統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)MultipleR0.693843222RSquare0.481418417AdjustedRSquare0.473186964標(biāo)準(zhǔn)誤差0.077519222觀測值65方差分析dfSSMSFSignificanceF回歸分析10.3514510.35145158.485221.48E-10殘差630.3785810.006009總計(jì)640.730033系數(shù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)誤差tStatP-valueLower95%Upper95%下限95.0%上限95.0%截距-0.0015688530.009765-0.160660.872873-0.021080.017945-0.021080.017945深證綜指0.9417045610.1231387.6475631.48E-100.6956331.1877760.6956331.187776由上表可知，新華制藥與深證綜指的相關(guān)性較高，為0.6938，說明新華制藥經(jīng)常隨著深證綜合指數(shù)的額變化而同向變化，R2為0.4814，說明深證綜合指數(shù)的方差可以解釋新華制藥方差的48%左右。調(diào)整后的R2稍小于原來的R2。第二欄顯示了證券特征線的方差分析結(jié)果?；貧w平方和（SS,0.3515）表示新華制藥超額收益率中能夠被深證綜合指數(shù)解釋的那一部分，該值等于β2σ2.MS這一列表示殘差項(xiàng)（0.0060），表示新華制藥收益率中無法被自變量解釋的部分，即獨(dú)立于深圳綜合指數(shù)的那一部分。該值的平方根就是第一欄中報(bào)告的回歸方程的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)誤差（0.0775）。R2等于被解釋的SS（0.3515）除以總SS（0.7300）。1.5α估計(jì)上表第三欄，截距（-0.0016）是對新華制藥樣本期α的估計(jì)。但統(tǒng)計(jì)上該值是不顯著的。后面的幾個(gè)統(tǒng)計(jì)量可以驗(yàn)證這一點(diǎn)，第一個(gè)統(tǒng)計(jì)量是估計(jì)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)誤差（0.0098），這一統(tǒng)計(jì)量衡量了估計(jì)的誤差，如果標(biāo)準(zhǔn)誤差大，那么可能的估計(jì)誤差也相應(yīng)大。t統(tǒng)計(jì)量是回歸系數(shù)與其標(biāo)準(zhǔn)誤差之比，等于估計(jì)值大于零的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)誤差值。顯著性水平P值（0.8729）表示如果真實(shí)值α為零，那么得到-0.0016的可能性為0.8729，即存在一定的可能性。P值太大，表明α的估計(jì)不顯著。1.6β估計(jì)上表的回歸輸出結(jié)果表明新華制藥的β估計(jì)值為0.9417，稍小于1，表明它的敏感性稍小于深證綜合指數(shù)。說明新華制藥對市場的敏感度不高。估計(jì)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差為0.1231。該值和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差產(chǎn)生一個(gè)很大的t值（7.6476），p值幾乎為零。我們可以大膽地拒絕新華制藥真實(shí)β值為零的原假設(shè)。綜上，新華制藥的指數(shù)模型為：Ri(t)=-0.0016+0.9417Rm(t)+ei(t).1.7β調(diào)整調(diào)增β的動(dòng)機(jī)是：在整個(gè)期間，平均而言股票的β值似乎有向1變動(dòng)的趨勢。同時(shí)，所有證券的平均β值等于1，當(dāng)在一個(gè)特定樣本期間估計(jì)β值時(shí)，β值和1差距越大，存在估計(jì)誤差的可能性越大，隨后則更容易趨向于1。所以，簡單地調(diào)整β值的方法是去樣本β估計(jì)值和1進(jìn)行加權(quán)。調(diào)整β=2/3樣本β+1/3（1）=2/3×0.9417+1/3=0.9611二基本面分析2.1公司介紹山東新華制藥股份有限公司的前身是1943年成立于膠東抗日根據(jù)地的山東新華制藥廠。是我國重點(diǎn)骨干大型制藥企業(yè)、亞洲最大的解熱鎮(zhèn)痛類藥物生產(chǎn)與出口基地，以及國內(nèi)重要的心腦血管類、抗感染類及中樞神經(jīng)類等藥物生產(chǎn)企業(yè)。1997年在H股和A股上市，其實(shí)際控制人是山東省國有資產(chǎn)監(jiān)督管理委員會。公司現(xiàn)已形成了化學(xué)原料藥、醫(yī)藥制劑、醫(yī)藥化工中間體、醫(yī)藥商業(yè)四大板塊齊頭并進(jìn)的業(yè)務(wù)布局。集團(tuán)內(nèi)醫(yī)藥化工設(shè)計(jì)子公司、淄博新華——中西制藥子公司、淄博新華——百利高制藥子公司、新華制藥——高密子公司、山東淄博新達(dá)制藥子公司主要負(fù)責(zé)醫(yī)藥產(chǎn)品的研發(fā)、生產(chǎn)、銷售。企業(yè)集團(tuán)內(nèi)新華醫(yī)藥貿(mào)易子公司、新華制藥進(jìn)出口子公司、淄博新華大藥店連鎖子公司、新華制藥（歐洲）子公司、新華制藥（美國）子公司主要負(fù)責(zé)醫(yī)藥化工產(chǎn)品的銷售和進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易流通業(yè)務(wù)。集團(tuán)內(nèi)新華制藥——壽光子公司主要負(fù)責(zé)生產(chǎn)、銷售化工產(chǎn)品。2.2產(chǎn)品分析下面對公司四大塊業(yè)務(wù)進(jìn)行比較分析，2014年收入占比成本占比利潤占比毛利率收入增長率成本增長率毛利率增加值化學(xué)原料藥42.85%44.29%37.42%18.27%-0.43%-2.23%1.51%制劑24.80%17.82%51.17%43.17%13.86%7.25%3.51%商業(yè)流通23.18%27.97%5.08%4.59%1.13%1.47%-0.32%化工及其他9.17%9.92%6.32%14.42%35.49%16.96%13.57%合計(jì)20.92%5.82%2.08%2.89%2013年化學(xué)原料藥48.76%48.61%49.55%16.76%8.35%12.58%-3.13%制劑17.60%12.72%42.32%39.66%-7.25%-6.30%-0.83%商業(yè)流通25.97%29.57%7.74%4.91%13.31%11.11%1.88%化工及其他7.67%9.11%0.40%0.85%12.22%7.84%8.97%化學(xué)原料藥占據(jù)了公司40%多的收入和成本，是公司的傳統(tǒng)業(yè)務(wù)。公司原料藥形成了一定的規(guī)模優(yōu)勢，2014年該業(yè)務(wù)成本下降的幅度也比較大。但是該業(yè)務(wù)的整體毛利率比較低，2014年毛利率只有18.27%。制劑業(yè)務(wù)的收入雖然只占到25%左右，但它卻為公司貢獻(xiàn)了一半多的利潤，在2014年制劑業(yè)務(wù)的利潤總額超過了原料藥業(yè)務(wù)。它的毛利率也有40%多，是化學(xué)原料業(yè)務(wù)的兩倍多。這說明制劑產(chǎn)品的盈利水平遠(yuǎn)高于原料藥。另一方面，公司生產(chǎn)的原料藥可以直接供應(yīng)給制劑產(chǎn)品，這也降低了制劑產(chǎn)品的生產(chǎn)成本。但是從2013年和2014年的收入增長率表現(xiàn)看，制劑產(chǎn)品的收入增長情況存在一定的不穩(wěn)定性。商業(yè)流通業(yè)務(wù)的收入占比與制劑業(yè)務(wù)類似，但它的毛利率卻不到5%，也只為公司貢獻(xiàn)了5%左右的利潤。該業(yè)務(wù)的增長率及毛利率變動(dòng)情況在2014年的表現(xiàn)均不佳?；ぜ捌渌麡I(yè)務(wù)收入占比在9%左右，毛利率也不高，2014年只有14%。但是這塊業(yè)務(wù)收入增增長率在2013年、2014年基本都遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)大于其他業(yè)務(wù)，同時(shí)2014年毛利率增長幅度也很大，該產(chǎn)品說明銷售擴(kuò)大后，擁有了一定的規(guī)模優(yōu)勢，邊際成本下降明顯。公司整體上的毛利率為20.92%，收入增長率為5.82%，兩個(gè)指標(biāo)表現(xiàn)都不突出。2.3同行業(yè)分析2.3.1行業(yè)地位比較在化學(xué)原料藥三級行業(yè)中，A股市場上一共有26家上市公司。上圖是此行業(yè)中2014年?duì)I業(yè)收入排名，可知海正藥業(yè)、華北制藥處在該行業(yè)龍頭地位，新華制藥的收入也在較前列，2013和2014年都在第7位。從總資產(chǎn)情況看，對于公司所處的行業(yè)地位也能得出相似的結(jié)論。海正藥業(yè)和華北制藥總資產(chǎn)規(guī)模處在行業(yè)龍頭位置，新華制藥的總資產(chǎn)處在行業(yè)第10位，處于中前列。我綜合考慮了營業(yè)收入規(guī)模以及業(yè)務(wù)結(jié)構(gòu)的相似性后，選取了華北藥業(yè)、普洛藥業(yè)、華海藥業(yè)作為新華制藥的對比公司，在下文進(jìn)行比較分析。2.3.2盈利能力比較凈資產(chǎn)收益率2008年2009年2010年2011年2012年2013年2014年普洛藥業(yè)3.99%4.50%3.04%1.04%10.69%10.20%15.71%新華制藥2.03%6.83%5.81%4.46%1.38%2.09%2.81%華海藥業(yè)14.68%14.46%7.57%15.40%19.86%14.25%8.59%華北制藥19.48%-35.37%24.03%11.54%1.02%0.33%0.87%從最綜合的指標(biāo)——凈資產(chǎn)收益率看，普洛和華海藥業(yè)在12-14年表現(xiàn)較好，它們的凈資產(chǎn)收益率超出新華和華北制藥一大截。而新華制藥這些年的凈資產(chǎn)收益率很低，在三級行業(yè)26家公司中只能排在第20位左右。但與華北制藥相比，新華制藥的凈資產(chǎn)收益率總體上比較穩(wěn)定，先隨著行業(yè)景氣轉(zhuǎn)好而緩慢上升，從2012年開始又受宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢影響，大幅度回落。但華北制藥在2012年前后凈資產(chǎn)收益率差距很大，12年以后該指標(biāo)就一直很低。究其原因可能是因?yàn)槭杖胝急容^大的物流貿(mào)易業(yè)務(wù)盈利不穩(wěn)定，且物流貿(mào)易業(yè)務(wù)的盈利性比較差。銷售毛利率2008年2009年2010年2011年2012年2013年2014年普洛藥業(yè)19.11%21.85%21.03%19.39%23.20%22.64%26.02%新華制藥13.96%19.14%18.38%18.59%17.64%16.20%20.47%華海藥業(yè)46.34%41.70%41.97%39.63%40.27%43.86%44.68%華北制藥33.85%30.61%14.80%8.27%9.64%10.26%16.21%從銷售毛利率上，就能很明顯的對比出各家公司的經(jīng)營差異。華海制藥經(jīng)營的產(chǎn)品整體毛利率最好，基本在40%以上。之后比較穩(wěn)定的是普洛藥業(yè)，它基本在25%左右。新華制藥處在三級行業(yè)中第20位，毛利率基本低于20%。而華北制藥從2011年起毛利率一直較低。我認(rèn)為，雖然每家公司的主營業(yè)務(wù)都是研發(fā)、生產(chǎn)、銷售醫(yī)藥產(chǎn)品，但它們實(shí)際經(jīng)營的藥品種類差異較大。不同種類的藥，其市場定價(jià)和盈利性差異很大，這就導(dǎo)致了毛利率的顯著差距。標(biāo)的公司——新華制藥，主要是在傳統(tǒng)解熱鎮(zhèn)痛類原料藥市場的壟斷以及普藥制劑產(chǎn)品的逐步拓展，它經(jīng)營的基本是低價(jià)原料藥與中低端制劑產(chǎn)品，附加值不高，毛利率不高。而華海藥業(yè)的優(yōu)勢主要在于普利類、沙坦類等中樞神經(jīng)和高血壓領(lǐng)域的原料藥及成品藥的生產(chǎn)銷售，附加值較大，毛利率很高。普洛藥業(yè)的主要產(chǎn)品涉及抗生素類、抗病毒類、抗腫瘤類、心血管類等多個(gè)領(lǐng)域，產(chǎn)品整體附加值較大，毛利率情況也好于新華制藥。華北制藥雖然營業(yè)收入處在行業(yè)前端，它的主要產(chǎn)品青霉素類、頭孢類、維生素產(chǎn)品雖然產(chǎn)銷量居世界前列，但毛利率都不高，甚至維生素產(chǎn)品毛利率近年來一直為負(fù)。綜上所述，醫(yī)藥原料藥行業(yè)中每家企業(yè)基本都有自己的特色產(chǎn)品，都有自己的開發(fā)重點(diǎn)，不同企業(yè)間的種類差異較大。較基礎(chǔ)的藥類產(chǎn)品如新華制藥、華北制藥生產(chǎn)的解熱鎮(zhèn)痛類、青霉素產(chǎn)品，雖然銷量較大，但是毛利率不高。而華海藥業(yè)、普洛藥業(yè)生產(chǎn)的心血管類、腫瘤類藥物產(chǎn)品較復(fù)雜，毛利率也較高。存貨周轉(zhuǎn)率2008年2009年2010年2011年2012年2013年2014年普洛藥業(yè)4.464.475.014.416.865.445.14新華制藥6.115.795.725.805.365.205.09華海藥業(yè)1.001.091.101.851.691.611.82華北制藥3.784.218.778.627.197.624.84新華制藥的存貨周轉(zhuǎn)率在這5年中一直比較穩(wěn)定，存貨運(yùn)營情況比較穩(wěn)定。而華海藥業(yè)雖然毛利率很高，但它的存貨周轉(zhuǎn)率卻比較低。結(jié)合毛利率和存貨周轉(zhuǎn)率情況，兩者表現(xiàn)都比較好的是普洛藥業(yè)，所以它的凈資產(chǎn)收益率在四家公司里最高。銷售費(fèi)用率2008年2009年2010年2011年2012年2013年2014年普洛藥業(yè)3.55%4.27%4.38%4.37%4.57%4.43%5.26%新華制藥4.75%5.29%4.95%6.80%8.07%7.07%8.85%華海藥業(yè)2.93%2.93%4.16%2.70%4.13%6.58%10.62%華北制藥5.61%6.14%3.62%4.05%4.65%5.07%8.07%從銷售費(fèi)用率看，幾家公司一直在逐步擴(kuò)大銷售費(fèi)用的投入，說明企業(yè)面臨著越來越激勵(lì)的市場競爭。各家公司都在向下游擴(kuò)展自己的經(jīng)營范圍，幾家公司都想試圖選擇增加市場推廣費(fèi)用以拓展毛利較高的制劑產(chǎn)品的市場份額。標(biāo)的公司新華制藥這些年銷售費(fèi)用的投入占營業(yè)收入比重最大，這主要是新華制藥將費(fèi)用投入于零售終端的開發(fā)，如藥房實(shí)體店以及新華大藥房、京東旗艦店、天貓店、壹號店的網(wǎng)上藥房的開發(fā)投入。說明公司對營銷環(huán)節(jié)的重視，由于市場推廣的力度增加，公司制劑產(chǎn)品的收入增長情況也比較樂觀。管理費(fèi)用率2008年2009年2010年2011年2012年2013年2014年普洛藥業(yè)9.96%11.16%11.62%11.78%10.80%11.43%11.90%新華制藥5.60%6.87%6.32%5.99%7.26%7.04%7.40%華海藥業(yè)18.51%17.95%26.21%17.20%16.01%18.39%20.34%華北制藥11.22%13.93%6.29%5.28%5.87%3.95%5.03%管理費(fèi)用的組成主要是研發(fā)費(fèi)用和人工支出。該項(xiàng)可以和毛利率結(jié)合進(jìn)行分析。華海藥業(yè)和普洛藥業(yè)的管理費(fèi)用投入較大，這兩家公司產(chǎn)品的毛利率較高，要維持這樣的毛利率其需要的研發(fā)和人工支出也就比較大。而新華制藥和華北制藥的主要產(chǎn)品偏普遍和基礎(chǔ)，其毛利率較低，需要的研發(fā)支出也不高。同時(shí)，由于產(chǎn)品本身的盈利性不高，它們就必須嚴(yán)格地控制管理費(fèi)用的支出，對于開發(fā)新產(chǎn)品的投入也相對比較謹(jǐn)慎。2.3.3償債能力比較資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率2008年2009年2010年2011年2012年2013年2014年普洛藥業(yè)44.70%38.44%41.12%45.60%42.78%30.16%29.52%新華制藥30.69%35.05%36.73%40.10%49.62%52.20%54.29%華海藥業(yè)27.43%27.15%33.47%40.21%38.73%31.41%25.87%華北制藥71.46%80.85%83.08%84.11%62.79%65.32%61.02%從上表可知，新華制藥和華北制藥的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率較高，基本處在50%以上。主要是由于傳統(tǒng)制藥行業(yè)的公司，固定資產(chǎn)投入都比較大，所以其需要的負(fù)債也比較多。而新華制藥和華北制藥其產(chǎn)品本身創(chuàng)造的內(nèi)部收益不大，所以其負(fù)債率就相對更高。新華制藥從2008年開始資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率就一直處于不斷擴(kuò)大的趨勢，主要是因?yàn)楣具@些年在陸續(xù)進(jìn)行大的項(xiàng)目建設(shè)，其資金基本來源于銀行借款。金融負(fù)債/總資產(chǎn)2008年2009年2010年2011年2012年2013年2014年普洛藥業(yè)30.45%24.02%26.87%28.62%31.17%29.45%18.39%新華制藥13.16%15.00%17.36%22.92%33.38%35.45%34.74%華海藥業(yè)13.18%10.95%9.25%21.27%14.43%12.61%11.02%華北制藥52.44%54.52%57.96%59.42%39.82%41.75%32.05%為了簡化計(jì)算，我將短期借款、長期借款、一年內(nèi)到期的非流動(dòng)負(fù)債大致歸為企業(yè)的金融負(fù)債，或者說有息負(fù)債。從中還是可看出，新華制藥和華北制藥其銀行借款占總資產(chǎn)的比重都比較大，基本在30%以上，這會對其資金周轉(zhuǎn)情況產(chǎn)生一定壓力。財(cái)務(wù)費(fèi)用率2008年2009年2010年2011年2012年2013年2014年普洛藥業(yè)2.53%2.43%2.47%2.61%2.66%1.00%1.62%新華制藥0.40%1.15%0.83%1.27%2.03%2.73%2.01%華海藥業(yè)2.96%0.92%0.67%1.43%1.56%1.61%1.19%華北制藥5.89%4.42%2.10%1.73%1.65%1.63%3.07%財(cái)務(wù)費(fèi)用占收入的比重，與前一張表金融負(fù)債的比重是相對應(yīng)的。新華制藥和華北制藥的金融負(fù)債比重較高，所以其財(cái)務(wù)費(fèi)用占營業(yè)收入的比重也較大。新華制藥在2013年的金融負(fù)債比重最高，其財(cái)務(wù)費(fèi)用的支出也最大。從中可以看出，標(biāo)的公司存在一定的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，銀行借款占公司總資產(chǎn)的比重較高，且產(chǎn)品本身毛利率較低，如果財(cái)務(wù)費(fèi)用占營業(yè)收入的比重較大，企業(yè)的凈利潤會更加被擠壓。2.3.4成長能力比較從上圖可直觀地看出，標(biāo)的公司新華制藥的營業(yè)收入規(guī)模這幾年都呈緩慢上升趨勢。華北制藥的營業(yè)收入規(guī)模雖然超出其它三家公司很多，但其收入呈下降且不穩(wěn)定趨勢。營業(yè)收入增長率2009年2010年2011年2012年2013年2014年普洛藥業(yè)9.39%11.20%0.89%126.79%12.06%8.54%新華制藥10.73%12.59%12.37%1.16%6.67%13.25%華海藥業(yè)15.79%10.22%78.68%10.22%14.00%12.57%華北制藥-0.58%110.68%17.99%-8.33%11.80%-24.42%從增長率情況看，新華制藥一直是正增長趨勢，但增長率并不穩(wěn)定，2014年增長率較大，說明公司銷售費(fèi)用的投入效率較好。但其產(chǎn)品的收入增長率總體上沒有華海藥業(yè)好。說明華海藥業(yè)主營的中樞神經(jīng)和抗血壓類藥物的市場還未飽和，前景較好。而新華制藥主營原料藥在14年為負(fù)增長，制劑產(chǎn)品和化工產(chǎn)品的增長幅度則較大。說明標(biāo)的公司未來的業(yè)績增長點(diǎn)主要在后兩塊業(yè)務(wù)。2.3.5股利政策比較每股稅前現(xiàn)金股利2008年2009年2010年2011年2012年2013年2014年合計(jì)普洛藥業(yè)0.0200.0200.0200.0100.0850.155新華制藥0.0300.0500.0500.0300.0100.0200.0200.210華海藥業(yè)0.2000.1000.1000.1000.2000.2000.1501.050華北制藥0.0370.037從上表可知，新華制藥的股利政策比較穩(wěn)定，每年都會分配少量的現(xiàn)金股利，但是不分配股票股利。華海藥業(yè)的現(xiàn)金股利最豐厚，2013年、2014年其分配的股利都占公司凈利潤45%左右。2.4競爭優(yōu)勢標(biāo)的公司的擁有解熱鎮(zhèn)痛類特色原料藥的完整產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈，是亞洲最大的解熱鎮(zhèn)痛類藥物生產(chǎn)出口基地。公司擁有乙氧苯柳胺、馬藺子素、吡哌酸、巴比妥、斯銻黑克等多個(gè)國內(nèi)獨(dú)家品種，“兩氨”、咖啡因、阿司匹林、布洛芬、TMP、吡哌酸等主導(dǎo)品種在國內(nèi)市場占有率均居國內(nèi)第一位。公司擁有規(guī)模發(fā)展優(yōu)勢，且規(guī)模收益開始顯現(xiàn)。2014年公司通過深入開展