世界經濟論壇-全球首席經濟學家2023展望

efEconomistsOutlookDisclaimeror2my3 ms Cover:Unsplash4OutlookcomesoutamidcontinuingchallengestionsAlthoughtherearedsforoptimismsuchaseasingPolicymakersfrontanarrayofdifficultsseswillneedtoadapttopersistentheadwindsthroughout2023.Almosttwo-thirdsofrespondentsconsiderelyinhoconsideritextremelyberionsnowstarkwith100%ofchiefeconomistsexpectingweakorveryweakgrowthfor2023inthepondentsrthecomingyeargiventhetepidgrowthprospects.shapeglobaleconomicdevelopmentsternsofeconomicactivitywillcontinueshiftaroundtheworldinlinewithnewationoutlookforfromofrespondentsforEuropetojustrChinaFollowingapandcoordinatedcentralbankomistssurveyedarypolicystancetoremainconstantinmostoftheworldthisyear.dtheUSAtthestartof2023,concernsaboutthecostoflivingremainacuteinmanythatthecostoflivingcrisismaybeclosetoitspeak,withamajority(68%)expectingthecrisistohavebecomelessseverebytheendof2023.Asimilartrendisevidentintheenergycrisis,withalmosttwo-thirdsofrespondentsoptimisticthatconditionswillhavebeguntoimprovebytheendofAroundnineoutoftenrespondentsexpectbothweakdemandandhighborrowingasignificantdragonbusinessactivityin2023,withmorethan60%alsoexpectinghigherinputcoststobechiefeconomistsexpectessestocutcoststhisng5usinessestocutoperationalexpensesandexpectingworkerstopectbusinessestoetheirsupplychainsnysourcesofoptimismintheleconomiccontextThreeepeatedlythesheetsondentsalsoedtheprospectsofareboundnsitionibilityforknowledgeworkers.6GlobalrecessionriskloomsTheoutlookfortheglobaleconomyisgloomy,accordingtotheresultsoftherveyofchiefeconomistsGlobalgrowthprospectsremainanaemic,sionriskhighDespiteinthefinalmonthsonarypressures,amodestuptickinconsumersentimentandstabilizationofcommodityoneinfiverespondentsnowconsideraglobalrecessiontobeelylikelyinmorethantwiceeyinSeptember2022.However,32%alsoxpectaglobalrecessiontobeextremelythantemberThisflectsaweakeningofgrowthexpectationsacrossmostbutnsandsignificantcontinuedbouttheeffectivenessanddurationoftighteningpolicymeasures.expectsaroundathirdoftheglobaleconomytoenterarecessionin2023,andithasfurthertrimmeditsforecastofglobalgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)fortheyearto2.7%.1Figure1.Globalrecessionoutlook55Note:Thenumbersinthegraphsmaynotaddupto100%becausefigureshavebeenroundedup/down.SourceChiefEconomistsSurveyDecember2antnsfstisnowstark,with100%ofchiefeconomistsectingweakorveryweakgrowththisormerandexpectingeofthelastsurveytheand64%fortheUS.7555568326832996832Figure2.EconomicgrowthWhatisyourexpectationforeconomicgrowthinthefollowinggeographiesin2023?ngSourceChiefEconomistsSurveyDecember2ngssmedoronorghengherter8ofmednntheeconomicoutlookbeanands68%ofrespondentsexpectweakgrowthforSub-SaharanAfricanbutpointstoationsforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean.Inflationmoderates,butslowlyyinraid955455545676245Figure3.InflationowinggeographiesinVerylowLowModerateHighVeryHighhiefEconomistsSurveytsomoaionsytorPolicy-makersfacetrade-offsTheglobalbackdropofweakgrowthkerswithfhistoricproportionsattheartofChiefamongthesewillbeheneedtobringinflationmuchclosertothe2%targetwithoutchokingoffgrowth,ednandadaptationscountriesionmakersmistssurveyedarypolicystancetoremainnmostoftheworldthisyearseelyrthertighteninginThealebothindicatedthatsuchadditionaltighteningisonthewaybutitisnotablethatthetwobanks’mostrecentbasispointsthanpreviousbasishikesinthecurrenttighteningcyclearypolicyintheUSandEuropebytheendof3.Figure4.MonetarypolicyypolicyinthefollowinggeographiesLooserThesameTighter27UnitedStates591418MiddleEastand613201377SourceChiefEconomistsSurveyDecember2tighteningtoomuchandtoolittle.eningtoomuchmayleadtoadeeporprolongedrecessioncausingorsecausingcontinuedcostoflivinganddpotentiallyevenlaterdateestabilityThetimingofofesficantnsuewhenxampleatthetimecordedfiveninginflationgwhenpolicycanbeloosenedagain.tbecauseoftheeediateraintsonsneedtoaddresschallengesthroughmediumtolong-educationreandenergytoboostrestoowiththeriskthatlectoraleofeconomicstrainforotightenoverthenextyearyandfiscalpolicyexpectations.Almosttwo-thirdsicytotmonetarypolicymviewthatysupportisneededtorevivegrowthinsuchpolicymovesthaninmostothercountriesorregions.Figure5.FiscalpolicyyinthefollowinggeographiesLooserThesameTighter1827MiddleEastandNorthAfrica13136191913131212SourceChiefEconomistsSurveyDecember2ApotentialpeakinthecostoflivingeditionoftheChiefkhighlightedtheyinghumanimpactofthecostovertyandmorewidespreadsocialunrest.14AtthestartofestillevidentandthesamecythatthecostoflivingcrisismaybeclosetoullssseverebytheendofFigure6.CostoflivingeadtodoyouagreedisagreewiththefollowingstatementcertainAgreeStronglyagree5050SourceChiefEconomistsSurveyDecember2ntinuingimpactofthecostderestimatedewthatenergyandfoodcostswillcontinuehouseholdsinbothhigh-andlow-incomecountriesceinflationdatatheycategoriesrecordedtheasesinpushednceoffactorsincludingshocksandcommoditymarketdisruption.ber999999955Figure7.Livingstandardsdards14527551452755593650593650993645993645364514364514SourceChiefEconomistsSurveyDecember2abledivergenceintheexpectedimpactbetweenhigh-andctedinthemuchhigherproportionofchiefeconomistserseimpactinlowiescomparedtotandardsfromfoodcostsisexpectedby69%inhigh-incomeeconomiesand86%inlow-incomedata,withlow-incomecountriesrecordingfoodpriceinflationof29%,comparedtoaglobalaverageofTheWorldFoodProgrammenowestimatesuptomillioneopletofaceacutefoodinsecurityininwithmilliononthebrinkofsforoptimismaboutfoodpricetrends.xportsofgrainfromndentsexpectasignificantinbothdevelopingandevelopedeconomiestorisingpricesforgoodsandplaceanadditionalsAccordingbetweentheimpactinhighincomeandlow-incomeeconomies.ofrespondentsexpectaveanadversehisisextremelyincomeeconomies,atotalof81%expectamuchhigherOntheincomesideofthecostoflivingntsexpectwageimpactonhouseholdsthanothercostandsubjecttoasignificantatestestimatesfromthetoglobalrealwagegrowthdroppingfromanhefirsthalfof2022.18Accordingtothesedata,realwagesndtheyanderregionsratherthanussectorsafterlockdownshasledtowagegrowthalbeitfromlowlevels,inomingyeargiventhetepidgrowthingasignificantpotentialrisktotheexpectationofthecostoflivingcrisisebbingbyyearendFigure8.LabourmarketseadtodoyouagreedisagreewiththefollowingstatementStronglydisagreeDisagreeUncertainAgreeStronglyagreeSourceChiefEconomistsSurveyDecember2599599ProgressontheenergyemergencyhowoptimismsineedforerousshorttermandlongtermpolicieshchallengesthatremaintobemeisnottrueofglobalgaspriceswhichinNovemberwerespreviouslyFigure9.EnergycrisiseadtodoyouagreedisagreewiththefollowingstatementStronglydisagreeDisagreeUncertainAgreeStronglyagreeSourceChiefEconomistsSurveyDecember2sresstestingandimprovementnrovedogressinarangeofsupplydealsandatrimmingofgasconsumptionby15%.21sfortheirviewsonthedesignedtodealwithshort-termandposedbythecrisisrgyimportingcountriesOftheductionofenergyconsumptionisthepreferredonewith55%effectivetoavoidtheworst-casescenarioofeducingenergyconsumptionizestheworkthatneedstobedonebyotherpolicyresponses.Figure10.EnergypolicytoaddressthecrisisnergyonomiesMeasurestoreduceenergyconsumption5995527Diversicationofenergysources23Directcashtransferstohouseholdsandbusinesses18234118ReductioninVATand/orenergytaxes527184555Energypricecaps5419369SourceChiefEconomistsSurveyDecember2Mostoftheotherpolicyapproachesconsideredbythechiefeconomistswereofenergypricecapsstandsoutasthemostcontestedoption,withanalmostequalsplitgcapsaseffectivetheintensityofdebatethathassurroundedtheintroductionofapricecapforgasintheEU,includingconcernsaboutitspotentialcialstabilityoftheEurozoneTheEUgaspricecap,aslasaGoilpricecapwereapprovedinDecember2022,anditwillbesomesffectivenessfeconomistswereaskedtofocusonthewingitasanthirdplaceintheeeedstotakeplaceinadvancedparticularlyinedhigherbuildingsandinOctober2022.26rmberranceOctober643655643655914Figure11.Long-termenergysecurityenergygeconomiestiveseSourceChiefEconomistsSurveyDecember2Amongtheotherpolicyoptionspresented,rtsteffectiveiveincludingoportionforanyoftheoptionsThisrmTheEUsbanonoilproductprojectedtobedepletedbyMarch2023.27centraltothefnsinareunlikelytobeshNGandoilproductsincludingdiesel,whichisistNovember9995955Expectationsofroughterraineworldputsanothertumultuousyearfeconomistswereaskedkelyosteffectivewindsandsourcesmwhichareaddressedinthenextsection.eakdemandpondentspecthigherinputcoststoexertaFigure12.ChallengestobusinessactivityificantdragonbusinessactivityinHighcostofborrowinginputcostsruptionsSourceChiefEconomistsSurveyDecember2enessheadwindsthatwerecitedby5%ofrespondentsasbeingwerproportionthanthe55%whowereneutralrtthismayreflectthefactthatgloballabourmarketconditionslyjoberunemployedpersonthisisnotthecasemorewidely.owardslabilityisexpectedtobealower-orderconcern.regulatoryandpolicyntyalowerproportionofdragonbusinessactivitycomparedtothe63%whowereneutralonthequestionorwhodisagreedthattheredbeanadverseimpactEffortsbyybulenceofthelastwhenitcomestothebusinessimpactofsupplychaindisruptionsinonly23%nessderiteitherusinessplanning73279573279599555Figure13.TheyearaheadadtodoyouagreedisagreewiththefollowingstatementsStronglydisagreeDisagreeUncertainAgreeStronglyagreegnySourceChiefEconomistsSurveyDecember2tpectsft555555DefensivestrategiesfhsingsketFigure14.StrategychoicesHowdoyouexpectmultinationalcompaniestorespondtopotentialeconomicheadwindscertainAgreeStronglyagreeSourceChiefEconomistsSurveyDecember2romistDecemberrespondentsexpectbusinessestorespondtoheadwindsbyoptimizingtheirsupplyheSeptembereditionaroundizationanddiscussedabovethatrespondentsdonotectsupplychainstobeasignificantymaketheseadjustments.Abouttwo-thirdsofrespondents(68%)expectpricestobeincreasedbybusinessessothatinputcostscanbensumersThisreflectsesignificantpricingpowerthatmanythisperiodofhigherconsumerprices,withthenetpricesbeingsomemajorcompaniesrisingbyasmuchas1%.34Whenaskedtoassessstrategyinwhichbusinessescreaseyonly32%.Almostthreequartersofchiefeconomistspostponeinvestmentsin2023inordertortionsdeithertoboostoughwithstandeconomicheadwindscomparedtogrowthstrategies.35Thesurveyalsoaskedchiefeconomistswhatstrategiesbusinessesmightadoptinthefaceofrisinginterestratesandmountinggeopoliticaltension.Regardingrisinginterestrates,themajorityofresponsesincludegreaterfocusonbalancesheethealth,deleveragingandreductionofinvestments.However,asignificantsetofresponsesviewedhigherinterestratesasatransitoryinvestmentratherthanashiftintoanewlonger-termerasignallingtheendofcheapmoney.Inthecaseofmorecomplexgeopoliticsandreducedglobalintegration,chiefeconomistsexpectedlowercross-borderinvestment,ashiftto“justincase”strategies,andmaintenanceofdiversificationandlocalizationmix.Basedonthesetrends,theoverallimpactonprices,efficiencyandgrowthinthemediumtermwillbesignificant.4January2023,/news.release/jolts.htm.Release,3December2022,https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2022/12/03/russian-oil-eu-agrees-on-level-of-price-cap/.gaspricesPressRelease,19December2022,https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2022/12/19/council-agrees-on-temporary-mechanism-to-limit-excessive-gas-prices/.ninBloombergDecember2022,/news/articles/2022-12-07/china-covid-zero-policy-will-shape-2023-global-inflation.13October2022,/n/energy-crisis-will-erode-europe-competitiveness-in-2023/.lookDecemberaThethreatstoEuropesindustrialcompetitivenesshttps///n/campaigns/europe-outlook-2023/.EconomistIntelligenceUnitAsiaoutlookDecemberb,“Mixedprospectsforregionalheavyweights”,/n/campaigns/asia-outlook-2023/.orrectionmechanismtoprotectcitizensandtheeconomyagainstexcessivelyhighpricesCON2/44),2December2022,https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/en_con_2022_44_f_sign~6183314e58.en.pdf.erceptionsandexpectationsDecemberhttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_surveys/consumer_exp_survey/results/html/energycrisisNovemberhttps://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/priorities-2019-2024/european-ealeuactionaddressenergycrisisenirstQuarterResultsSeptemberhttpsnewsroom/newsroom/global-english/fedex-corp-reports-first-quarter-fy23-results./newsroom/global-english/fedex-corp-reports-second-quarterresultsfyNovember2022,/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/.Austerity”,22July2022,/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4160971.rWinterComesSpring/insights/pages/gs-research/china-outlook-2023-after-winter-comes-spring/report.pdf.2022,https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/sites/default/files/dp-plan-sobriete.pdf.dstoLowerPricesSoonTheWallStreetJournal,26July2022,/articles/dont-expect-big-consumer-brands-to-lower-prices-soon-11658858815./_8eadd377a2684d9999b27d704fd3e0f2/ydisruptionsifthereisacompleteRussiancutoff26October2022,/data-and-statistics/charts/even-with-gas-storage-at-90-the-european-union-would-face-heightened-risk-of-supply-disruptions-if-there-is-a-complete-russian-cut-off./assets/830fe099-5530-48f2-a7c111f35d510983/WorldEnergyOutlook2022.pdf.mber/digitalguides/en-gb/story/globalwagereport2022-23#intro.FaceaBiggerInflationChallenge,19September2022,/en/News/Articles/2022/09/16/CF-Smaller-Economies-in-Latin-America-and-Caribbean-Face-rtOctobera“CounteringtheCost-of-LivingCrisis”,/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2022/10/11/world-economic-outlook-october-2022.ctoberbHelpingPeopleBounceBack”,/en/Publications/FM/Issues/2022/10/09/fiscal-monitor-october-22.ovember/?sk=4FFB52B2-3653-409A-B471-D47B46D904B5.wUSbasedbusinessescansucceedwhencapitalandtalentareconstrained”,16December2022,/capabilities/transformation/our-insights/planning-for-2023-how-us-based-businesses-can-succeed-when-capital-and-talent-are-constrained.isingenergypricesBruegelNovemberhttpswww/dataset/national-policies-shield-consumers-rising-energy-prices.TheEconomist,“Isawhite-collarrecessionlooming?”,4December2022,https://www./business/2022/12/04/is-a-white-collar-recession-looming.nomistHighenergypriceswillhurtcompaniesandconsumersin18November2022,/the-world-ahead/2022/11/18/high-energy-prices-will-hurt-companies-and-consumers-in-2023.WorldBankMonthlyCommodityPricesDecember/en/doc/5d903e848db1d1b83e0ec8f744e55570-0350012021/related/CMO-Pink-Sheet-December-2022.pdf.icForumChiefEconomistsOutlookSeptemberHYPERLINK"/reports/chief-economists-outlook-sep-2022/