皮尤-2040年的元宇宙（英）-The Metaverse in 2040

FORRELEASEJUNE30,2022

TheMetaversein2040

Hype?Hope?Hell?Maybeallthree.Expertsaresplitaboutthelikely

evolutionofatrulyimmersive‘metaverse.’Theyexpectthataugmented-and

mixed-realityenhancementswillbecomemoreusefulinpeople’sdailylives.

ManyworrythatcurrentonlineproblemsmaybemagnifiedifWeb3

developmentisledbythosewhobuilttoday’sdominantwebplatforms

BYJannaAndersonandLeeRainie

FORMEDIAOROTHERINQUIRIES:

LeeRainie,Director,InternetandTechnologyResearch

JannaAnderson,Director,ElonUniversity’sImaginingtheInternetCenter

KelseyBeveridge,CommunicationsAssociate

202.419.4372

RECOMMENDEDCITATION

PewResearchCenter,June30,2022.“TheMetaversein2040”

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AboutPewResearchCenter

PewResearchCenterisanonpartisan,nonadvocacyfacttankthatinformsthepublicabouttheissues,attitudesandtrendsshapingtheworld.Itdoesnottakepolicypositions.TheCenterconductspublicopinionpolling,demographicresearch,computationalsocialscienceresearchandotherdata-drivenresearch.Itstudiespoliticsandpolicy;newshabitsandmedia;theinternetandtechnology;religion;raceandethnicity;internationalaffairs;social,demographicandeconomictrends;science;researchmethodologyanddatascience;andimmigrationandmigration.PewResearchCenterisasubsidiaryofThePewCharitableTrusts,itsprimaryfunder.

Forthisproject,PewResearchCenterworkedwithElonUniversity’sImaginingtheInternetCenter,whichhelpedconceivetheresearchandcollectandanalyzethedata.

?PewResearchCenter2022

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Howwedidthis

Thisreportcoversresultsfromthe14th“FutureoftheInternet”canvassingthatPewResearchCenterandElonUniversity’sImaginingtheInternetCenterhaveconductedtogethertogatherexpertviewsaboutimportantdigitalissues.Thiscanvassingofexpertswaspromptedbyemergingdebatesintheearly2020soverthepotentialevolutionandimpactofextendedrealitytoolslikeaugmentedreality,mixedrealityandvirtualreality,aswellas“themetaverse”or“metaverses.”Thisisanonscientificcanvassingbasedonanonrandomsample;thisbroadarrayofopinionsaboutwherecurrenttrendsmayleadinthenext18yearsrepresentsonlythepointsofviewoftheindividualswhorespondedtothequeries.

PewResearchCenterandElon’sImaginingtheInternetCentersampledfromadatabaseofexpertstocanvassfromawiderangeoffields,invitingentrepreneurs,professionalsandpolicypeoplebasedingovernmentbodies,nonprofitsandfoundations,technologybusinessesandthinktanks,aswellasinterestedacademicsandtechnologyinnovators.ThepredictionsreportedherecameinresponsetoasetofquestionsinanonlinecanvassingconductedbetweenFeb.6-March21,2022.Inall,624technologyinnovatorsanddevelopers,businessandpolicyleaders,researchersandactivistsrespondedinsomewaytothequestioncoveredinthisreport.Moreonthemethodologyunderlyingthiscanvassingandtheparticipantscanbefoundinthesectiontitled“Aboutthiscanvassingofexperts.”

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Tableofcontents

AboutPewResearchCenter1

Howwedidthis2

Terminology4

TheMetaversein20405

1.Asamplingofoverarchingviews18

2.Expertessaysonmetaversepossibilities41

3.Twometainsightsaboutthefutureofthemetaverse78

4.Themetaversewillfullyemergeasitsadvocatespredict96

5.Themetaversewillnotfullyemergeinthewaytoday’sadvocateshope123

6.Whataboutblockchain?155

7.MoreonpotentialpositivesanddelightsoftheadvancementofXR167

8.MoreonpotentialnegativesoftheadvancementofXR176

9.Closingthoughts189

Aboutthiscanvassingofexperts196

Acknowledgments203

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Terminology

Extendedreality(XR)isanumbrellatermtocoverallofthevariousformsofcomputer-alteredreality.Forsomeexpertsandtechnologists,othertermsfallundertheXRumbrella:

Virtualreality(VR)completelyimmersespeopleinadigitalsetting.Thesesettingscanbecreatedasfullysyntheticcomputer-generatedcontent,theycanbemadeofreal-worldcontent(setinactual360-degreevideo),ortheycanbeahybridofboth.RobloxisoneofmanypopularmetaverseVRplatformsin2022.Today’sfullesthomeorworkVRexperiencesrequireindividualstouseahead-mounteddeviceandhapticcontrollers.

Augmentedreality(AR)overlaysdigitalinformationinreal-worldsettings.YouareapplyingARwhenyouuseyourphone’scameratotranslatesignsandmenusinrealtimefromonelanguagetoanother,orifyouplayPokémonGo.HundredsofARapplicationsareavailabletodayforuseonsmartphones.ARkeepstherealworldcentralbutenhancesitwithdigitaldetailsthatsupplementtheenvironment.

Mixedreality(MR)experiencesallowpeopletointeractwithandmanipulatecomputer-generatedimagesintherealworld,inrealtime.Youuseaheadsetbutseeandremainimmersedintherealworldwhileseeingandinteractingwithimagesusingyourhands–forinstance,a3Darchitecturalfloorplanforanewschoolor3Dschematicforanelectricvehicle.AtthispointintimeMRismostlyusedinindustrial,militaryandmedicaltraininganddesign.

MirrorworldsaredigitalcreationsthatmimicthephysicalandsocialstructuresoftherealworldinaVRsetting.Severalcompaniesarealreadyworkingtocreatesuchrepresentationsoftheentireplanet.Forexample,Nvidia’sEarth-2isadigitaltwinthataimstoenhancethecapacityforclimatemodeling.Andmanymirrorworldsaresettingsforgamesorbusinesses.OneexampleisUpland,avirtual-propertyNFTgamewherepeoplebuy,sellandtradevirtualpropertiesmappedtotherealworld–forinstance,areal-worldbaseballstadiumormuseum.

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TheMetaversein2040

Hype?Hope?Hell?Maybeallthree.Expertsareevenlysplitaboutthelikelyevolutionofatrulyimmersive‘metaverse.’Theyexpectthataugmented-andmixed-realityenhancementswillbecomemoreusefulinpeople’sdailylives.ManyworrythatcurrentonlineproblemsmaybemagnifiedifWeb3developmentisledbythosewhobuilttoday’sdominantwebplatforms

Interestintheideaofthemetaverseleapedin2021-2022,promptedinpartbyFacebook’sdecisiontorebranditselfas“Meta.”Thewordwascoinedbysci-fiauthorNealStephensonin1992inhisnovel“SnowCrash.”Intoday’sterms,themetaverseistherealmofcomputer-generated,networkedextendedreality,orXR,anacronymthatembracesallaspectsofaugmentedreality,mixedrealityandvirtualreality(AR,MRandVR).Atthispointintime,themetaverseisgenerallymadeupofsomewhat-immersiveXRspacesinwhichinteractionstakeplaceamonghumansandautomatedentities.Somearedailyinteractionswithaugmented-realityappsthatpeoplehaveontheircomputersandphones.Someareinteractionstakingplaceinmore-immersivedomainsingamingorfantasyworlds.Someoccurin“mirrorworlds”thatduplicatereal-lifeenvironments.

Whileextended-realitygamingandsocialspaceshavebeeninexistencefordecades,early2020stechnologicaladvancesandsocietaltransformationsbroughtaboutbytheCOVID-19pandemichavepushedthedevelopmentofthemetaversetotheforefront,inspiringtensofbillionsofdollarsinnewinvestmentsandpromptingpredictionsthatthemetaverseis“thefutureoftheinternet”or“thenextinternetbattleground.”

ProponentsofXRandthedevelopmentofmore-advancedandimmersive,3D,onlineworldssayitsrapidevolutionislikelytobenefitallaspectsofsociety–education,healthcare,gamingandentertainment,thearts,socialandciviclifeandotheractivities.Theybelievetheinfusionofmoredataintopeople’sexperiences,progressinartificialintelligence(AI)assistivesystemsandthecreationofentirelynewspacesandexperiencesfortechuserscouldenrichandexpandtheirlives.Ofcourse,aswithalldigitaltech,thereareconcernsaboutthehealth,safety,security,privacyandeconomicimplicationsofthesenewspaces.ThishasspurredagreatdealofspeculationaboutwhatthematuringofXRandthemetaversewilllooklikeandwhatthatmeansforsociety.

ThisheightenedinterestandinvestmentinextendedrealitypromptedPewResearchCenterandElonUniversity’sImaginingtheInternetCentertoaskhundredsoftechnologyexpertstosharetheirinsightsonthetopic.Inall,624technologyinnovators,developers,businessandpolicyleaders,researchersandactivistsprovidedopen-endedresponsestoaquestionseekingtheir

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predictionsaboutthetrajectoryandimpactofthemetaverseby2040.Theresultsofthisnonscientificcanvassing:

§54%oftheseexpertssaidthattheyexpectby2040themetaverseWILLbeamuch-more-refinedandtrulyfully-immersive,well-functioningaspectofdailylifeforahalfbillionormorepeopleglobally.

§46%saidthattheyexpectby2040themetaverseWILLNOTbeamuch-more-refinedandtrulyfully-immersive,well-functioningaspectofdailylifeforahalfbillionormorepeopleglobally.

Theseexpertswereaskedtoelaborateontheirmultiple-choiceanswersinanopen-endedquestionthatinvitedtheirviewsaboutboththepositiveandnegativeaspectsofthedigitalworldtocome.Twobroadthemesemergedinthosewrittenremarks.First,anotableshareoftheseexpertsarguedthattheembraceofextendedrealityinpeople’sdailylivesby2040willbecenteredaroundaugmented-realityandmixed-realitytools,notinthemore-fully-immersivevirtualrealityworldsmanypeopledefinetodayasbeing“themetaverse.”Second,theywarnedthatthesenewworldscoulddramaticallymagnifyeveryhumantraitandtendency–boththebadandthegood.Theyespeciallyfocusedtheirconcernsontheabilityofthoseincontrolofthesesystemstoredirect,restrainorthwarthumanagencyandstiflepeople’sabilitytoself-actualizethroughexerciseoffreewill,andtheyworriedoverthefuturefreedomofhumanstoexpandtheirnativecapacities.

Thekeythemestheseexpertsvoicedintheirwrittenresponsesareoutlinedinthethreefollowingtables.Thefirsttableoutlinesfurtherdetailstiedtothetwobroadthemesmentionedabove.Theseconddescribesthefivemost-mentionedreasonsthatthemetaverseislikelytobemuchmoreadvancedandmorebroadlyadoptedby2040.Thethirddescribesthefivemost-mentionedreasonsitwillnotbe.

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Twometainsightsaboutthefutureofthemetaverse

Thesethemesanchoredmanyexpertspredictionsastheyconsideredthemetaversein2040:

?Augmented-andmixed-realityapplicationswilldominateovervirtual-realityadvances:Somearguedthatthemost-populartechnologicalenhancementswillbetiedtoaugmentedreality(AR)andmixedreality(MR),enabledbyartificialintelligence(AI)systems.Theysaidpeoplewillfindthoseadvancesparticularlyappealingbecausetheywillexpanduponreal-worldexperiencesandimproveusers’dailylivesbymakingrealitymoreunderstandableandinteresting.Mostoftheseexpertssaidtheyexpectthatbroaderadoptionofvirtualreality(VR)willbelimitedtoenthusiasticbutsmalleruserbases,especiallygamersandentertainmentseekersandinselectbusiness,medical,educationandtrainingsettings.

?Thenext-generationnetworked-knowledgeecosystemcanbebuiltinwaysthatbetterservepeoplethanthecurrentwebdoes:Ashareoftheseexpertsarguedthatcomingtechadvancesinmetaversetechnologieswillmagnifyallhumanactivities,includingtheproblemsnowassociatedwiththecurrentWeb2.0environment.Theysaidtheimmersivepropertiesofthemetaversecouldraisesignificantthreatstohumanagencyandhumanrightsas“surveillancecapitalism”expandsandauthoritariangovernmentstakeadvantageofthesenewtechnologies.

Themetaversewillfullyemergeasitsadvocatespredict

Halfoftheexpertrespondentstothiscanvassingsaidextended-reality(XR)applicationsandthenetworkingneededtofacilitatetheirbroadadoptionwilladvancesignificantlyby2040.Theyexpectthatextendedrealitywillbemuchmoresophisticatedbythenthankstothesefactors:

?Profitmotivesaredrivingsignificantinvestmentinadvancingthesetechnologies:Theprimaryforcedrivinginvestmentintechnologicaldevelopmenthasalwaysbeentheopportunityforpeopletoprofitfromitssuccess.ExpectrapiddevelopmentofXRbecauseofitsmassivecommercialpotential.

?Comparedwithtoday,farmorepeoplewillfindthemetaverseusefulenoughtoaccessitdaily:ThosewhoexpectXRtoadvancesignificantlyby2040believeitwillbebroadlyadoptedinmanyrealmsinadditiontoitscurrentniches.Aswithanytechnology,theusecasesincludepositivesandnegatives.

?Thetechnologytocreateanimmersiveuniverseispossibleby2040:Yes,software,hardware,userinterfacesandnetworkcapabilitycouldbeadvancedenoughwithinthenext18yearstomakeamuch-improved,morebroadlyadoptedmetaversepossible.

?ThepandemicgaveXRdevelopmentabigboost:ExperiencesduringtheCOVID-19pandemichaveaccelerateddemandforandinvestmentinnewandimprovedonlinetools,especiallyinhealth,businessandeducationalsettings.

?ThereareanynumberofpotentialpositiveanddelightfulusesofXR:Theseexpertshighlightedawide-rangingnumberofactivitiesandservicesthatcouldbeofferedinmetaversespaces,includingrichlearningexperiences;remotemedicalprocedures;disaster-responseflexibility;creationofnewkindsofcommunities;expandedvenuesforcommercialexchanges;afloweringofcreativityintheartsandfashion;fullyautomatedencounterswithsmartagentshandlingsuchthingsasaccounting,professionaltrainingandmentalhealthcounseling;interactionswithfamouspeople;playing-fieldexperienceswithprominentathletes;andtraveltoexoticandfunlocales(e.g.,archeologicaldigs,mountaintops,historic

scenes,beaches,museums,far-offgalaxiesandother-worldlyplaces).

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Themetaversewillnotfullyemergeinthewaytoday’sadvocateshope

Abouthalfoftheexpertrespondentssaidadvancesinfull-immersionXRsettingswillnotcometowidespreaduseinpeople’sdailylivesby2040.Theymadethesearguments:

?Itwillnotbeseenasusefulindailylife:Aportionoftheseexpertspointedoutthatquiteafewimmersiveaugmentedand/orvirtualspacesalreadyexistandareonlyattractingnicheparticipants.Theycontendtheconsiderablemajorityofpeoplewillnotseeenoughlife-enhancingusecasesintheprospectsoffullerXRtowanttobecomemorefullyimmersed.

?Thetechnologyneededtoreachalotmorepeoplewillnotbereadyin2040:Upgradesinsoftware,hardware,userinterfacesandnetworkcapabilitywillnotbeadvancedenoughtoluremassaudiencesintofullerimmersionby2040.Thegearislikelytoremainlessthanuser-friendly,largespacesarerequiredtomaneuverinVR,andtherewillcontinuetobeproblemswithnetworklatencyandbandwidth.

?Peoplepreferlivinginlayersof‘real’reality:MostpeoplewillcontinuetofindfullimmersioninVRunappealing–notjustduetoclunkyequipment,highcostorbadconnectivity,butbecausetheydon’twanttobeimmersed,preferringbeingmostlyabsorbedintherealworld.

?Publicworriesabouttheimpactofsurveillancecapitalismandabusebyauthoritarianregimeswillsloworstopadoption:Anumberoftheseexpertspredictthatpeoplewillnotbewillingtoinvesttheirtimeandenergyinvirtualspacesinwhichtheycanbefurthermanipulatedandsurveilledbycorporateand/orauthoritarianinterests.

?ThereareanynumberofthreateningandharmfulusesofXR:Theseexpertsnotedanumberofproblemsthatmayworsenorariseinmetaversespaces,includingreductionsinautonomyandpeople’sabilitytocontroltheirlives;worseningdigitaldivides;amplifieddiscrimination;newformsofharassment,bullyingandhate;newmenacestopublicsafety,especiallyaroundsexualviolenceandexploitation;moreavenuesformisinformation(especiallytiedtocleverfakes);deeperlevelsofaddictiontometaverseactivities;distractionsthatdissociatepeoplefromreallifeandinduceloneliness(orworse);newthreatstousers’personaldata;andfurthercommercializationandfurthermonetizationofbasichumanactivities.

Source:NonscientificcanvassingofselectexpertsconductedFeb.11–March21,2022.

“TheMetaversein2040”

PEWRESEARCHCENTERandELONUNIVERSITY’SIMAGININGTHEINTERNETCENTER,2022

Thisisanonscientificcanvassing,basedonanonrandomsample.Theresultsrepresentonlytheopinionsoftheindividualswhorespondedtothequeriesandarenotprojectabletoanyotherpopulation.

Someofthemostsweepinganswerswrittenbytheserespondentstookthelongview.Theseexpertswrotethat“virtual”spaceshaveformillenniaariseninthehumanimaginationandthatitdoesn’ttakespecialtechnologicalfeaturesorgadgetrytocreatevividplacesbeyond“reallife.”Atthesametime,somearguedthateventhemostfar-outversionsofvirtualrealitywillstillanchorinbasichumansensory“interfaces”ofeyes,ears,taste,smell,motion,balanceandspeech.

Still,noneoftheseexpertsdoubtmajorchangesarenighinthewayrealityissupplementedbytechnologyorevenreimaginedintech-enabledways.AsXRpioneerAviBar-Zeev,aco-creatorofGoogleEarth,HoloLensandmore,wrote,“VRfundamentallystripsawaythemostcommon

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constraintsofreality:locationandtravel,physics,evensometimestime,wherehourscanoftenseemlikeminutes,andwecantraveltothehistoricalpastorimaginedfutures.”

Manywerenotsurewhatthetimelineforallthischangewillbe,butdidtheirbesttoimaginewheretheevolutionoftoday’sXRtechtrendsmighttakesociety.Someoftheanswersreflectingthatthought:

LaurenceLannom,vicepresidentattheCorporationforNationalResearchInitiatives,offeredancompactprediction,writing,“Themetaversewill,atitscore,beacollectionofnewandextendedtechnologies.Itiseasytoimaginethatboththebestandtheworstaspectsofouronlineliveswillbeextendedbybeingabletotapintoamore-completeimmersiveexperience,bybeinginsideadigitalspaceinsteadoflookingatonefromtheoutside.Atthegoodendofthecontinuumarethingsliketheabilityofpeopletointeractwithothersasthoughtheywereallinthesamephysicalspacewithouthavingspenthoursburningdinosaurbonestogetthere;practicingdifficultphysicaltasks(e.g.,surgery)onvirtualentities;andelevatededucationalandresearchopportunitiesofallkindsaswelearntoleveragethebuilt-inadvantagesofthenewenvironments.Theotherendisalsonothardtoimagine–easieraddictiontoall-absorbinggamesandfantasyexperiencesresultinginincreasedisolationformany;furtherbreakdownofsocialcohesionasthevirtualoffersaneasyalternativetothehardtaskoflearningtolivewitheachother;andincreasedpoliticalturmoilastheprophetsoffearandgrievanceacquiretheabilitytocommandrallieswithmillionsofattendees.”

EdwardBaig,freelancecolumnistandlongtimetechnologyreporterforUSAToday,wrote,“Eventhesmartestfolkstodayhavedifficultyarticulatingthemetaversesothatregularpeopleunderstanditbeyonditbeingthisvaguethingemergingoutofaugmentedreality,virtualreality,3Dandmixedreality.Ofcourse,measuredintechyears,2040isalifetimeawayand,whenyoufactorinthesheermagnitudeofthefinancialandintellectualinvestmentsalreadybeingplowedintothemetaverse,howcouldthisthingpossiblynotmorphintosomethinglikelytohaveaprofoundimpactonoureverydaylives?Whateveritisthatdrawsallofusintothemetaverse,itmustprovide–oratleastpromisetoprovide–experiencesandbenefitsthatareotherwiseimpracticalifnotimpossibletoachievein(forlackofabetterwayofputtingit)therealworld.”

ElizabethHyman,CEOfortheXRAssociation,whichwasfoundedbyMeta,Google,HTCVive,MicrosoftandSonyInteractiveEntertainmenttoconvenestakeholdersforthedevelopmentandadoptionofXR,sharedanumberofvitalusecasesalreadyprovenasusefulintheXRrealm:“Virtual,augmentedandmixedrealityarethegatewaytophenomenalapplicationsinmedicine,education,manufacturing,retail,workforcetrainingandmore,anditisthegatewaytodeeplysocialandimmersiveinteractions–themetaverse.Eachdaywe’retakingstridestomakethetechnologybetterandensurethattheopportunitiesarelimitless–becausetheyare.TheXR

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industryisfocusedonresponsibleinnovationandithasbuiltastrongrepositoryofresourcesthatlaythefoundationfortheindustry’scontinuedgrowth.Whilewidespreadadoptiondoestaketimeandchallengeswillnodoubtarise,webelieveXRtechnologywillbecomethenextmajorcomputingplatform.Already,collegesanduniversitiesareteachingstudentsinthemetaverse.HumanResourcesprofessionalsatcompanieslikeWalmart,SAP,Deltaandmanyothersareusingthetooltotrainworkers–someofthefastest-growingjobcategoriesintheU.S.areinindustriesthatarerapidlyadoptingXRtechnologies.UsesofXRincludewarehousingandinventorymanagement,productengineeringanddesign,immersivejobtrainingandupskillingandvirtualhealthcarepatientmonitoring.Particularlyinthehealthcaresetting,we’reseeingXRusewithchildren.Forexample,theChildren’sHospitalColoradoisusingXRtohelptochangethepediatrichospitalexperienceforthebetter–forinstance,fordistractionandpainmanagementreducingtheneedforanesthesiaandphysicaltherapy.”

DanielD.Bryant,Wales-basedVReducator,co-founderofEducatorsinVRandaleaderintheVirtualWorldSociety,predicted,“By2040theinternetthatyounowaccessonascreenwillbeaplaceyoucanenter,visitandexplore.Currentlywearelookinginthroughwindows(literally),butwearesoongoingtobestartingtoclimbthroughthewindowsandintotheinternet.Thewordwebsiteimpliesalocation.Currentlythisismostlyin2D.Whatifthesesitesarein3Dandyoucangetinandinteractdirectly,ratherthanwithakeyboardandamouse?Thinkhowcreativepeoplealreadygetwithcreatingandmonetizingcontentonthe2Dinternet.NowaddathirddimensiontothisandyouhavejustcreatedwhatCharlieFinkhasreferredtoasthe‘largestwealth-and-value-creationexperiencehumankindhaseverwitnessed.’Ican’timaginethemomentumheadinganywhereelse.Whenyoungpeoplecantrulygettheirheadsandhandsintothe‘metaverse,’juststandbackandwatchinwonder.AndthatisevenbeforeAI[artificialintelligence]getsintothemix.AIwillsoonbeabletogeneratevirtualworldsandusefulandveryconvincingAIbotstopopulateit.It’sawildridealready.Bettergetstrappedin.”

JonRadoff,authoroftheBuildingtheMetaverseblogandCEOofBeamable,ametaverseconsultancy,predictedtheinfluenceofgameplayintheevolutionofXR.“Themetaversewillbeimportantforatleasthalfabillionpeoplein2040becauseitisalreadyimportantforseveralbillion,”hesaid,referringtoageneralestimateofthenumberofpeoplewhohaveusedpopulargameandsocialspaces,notthenumberofdailyusers.“Themetaverseexists.Themost-commondefinitionsofthe‘metaverse’are:1)anembodiedvirtual-realityexperience;2)aWeb3frameworkforeconomicinteroperability;3)acreativeplatformforexperiences(e.g.,Roblox).Somecurrentversionsmaybeahybridofthese.Ithinkallofthese‘product-centric’definitionsfailtolookattheunderlyingcultureandsocialchange.Thefundamentalshiftistowardthinkingofvirtualpropertyandvirtualidentityas‘real’and/orimportant.OnecantracetheoriginofthemetaversebacktoDungeons&Dragonsbeforeitwasdigitizedandlookatitasanimaginary,creativespaceofsocial

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interactionandstorytelling.Everythingsincethenissimplytechnologiesthathavedigitized,dematerializedanddemocratizedaccesstothiscategoryofexperience.”

AbouthalfoftherespondentstothiscanvassingdonotexpecttheVRaspectoftheXRrealm