北大光華各種經(jīng)濟學課件講義

GuanghuaSchoolofManagement，PekingUniversity，WangDong主講人：王東北京大學光華管理學院431室電話/傳真:（86-10）6275-4817電郵：[創(chuàng)業(yè)投資

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ENTREPRENEURIALFINANCE?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong2Chapter1

IntroductiontoEntrepreneurialFinance創(chuàng)業(yè)投資概論?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong3DefiningEntrepreneurialFinanceEntrepreneurship:

“Therelentlesspursuitofopportunitywithoutregardtotheresourcescurrentlycontrolled”Finance:

“Thestudyoftheallocationofcashandriskwiththegoalofcreatingvaluefortheenterprise”EntrepreneurialFinance:

“Thestudyabouthowtomanagecashandrisktocreatevalueintherelentlesspursuitofopportunity”

Chapter1Source:HowardStevenson,HBS

?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong4Whoistheentrepreneur?CreativityAndInnovation

Chapter1Reference:JeffryTimmons“NewVentureCreation”LowHighHighGeneralmanagementskills,businessknow-how,andnetworks

Inventor

Entrepreneur

Promoter

Manager/Administrator?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong5Chapter1?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong6Chapter2

EntrepreneurshipandInnovation

創(chuàng)業(yè)與創(chuàng)新?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong7TheObjectiveoftheTeamChapter1MaximumValuefortheEntrepreneur?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong8CashFutureCashChapter6TheFirmFirmasaCashAmplifier?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong9Chapter6TheCashFlowofaBusinessVentureFixedAssetsCapital(equityanddebt)InfusionsCashExpendituresEmployeesMaterialsProductionInventory/ServiceEndingCashEquityReturnsDebtServiceTaxesCashsalesAccountsReceivableCreditSalesCollectionsReinvestment(toretainedearnings)?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong10Terminationsasapercentofstart-upsTerminationswithlosstocreditorsasapercentofstart-upsSource:Case,J.,"TheDarkSide"Inc.Magazine,1997,,basedonTheStateofSmallBusiness:AReportofthePresident,1994,U.S.GovernmentPrintingOffice,Washington,D.C.,1995.NewBusinessFormations&Terminations?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong11Chapter3

EntrepreneurRiskManagement?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong12DevelopmentStageStart-upEarlyGrowthRapidGrowthExitStagesofNewVentureDevelopment

Chapter2?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong13TimeDollarsRevenueNeteCashFlow00DevelopmentStart-upEarlyGrowthRapidGrowthExitFigure1-2StagesofNewVentureDevelopment

Chapter2?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong14戰(zhàn)略風險財務風險市場風險運營風險信用風險法律風險等創(chuàng)業(yè)企業(yè)風險Chapter1?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong15Chapter7NewVentureGrowthManagement創(chuàng)業(yè)企業(yè)成長管理

?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDongFigure4-1Rapidgrowthrequiresalargerorganization.Economies-of-scopeimplymoreproductlines.FinancialStrategyProductMarketStrategyOrganizationalStrategyThemoreverticalandhorizontalintegration,thegreaterthefinancialneeds.Outsideinvestmentismorelikelythelargerthefirm.Rapidgrowthreducesfinancialflexibilityandrequiressacrificingcontroltoattractoutsidefinancing.

Outsidev.entrepreneurDebtv.equityLoancovenantsOptionsStagingTypeoffinancingFinancialcontracts

PriceMarginQualityDifferentiationProductTargetedsalesgrowth

ScaleandscopeVerticalboundariesHorizontalboundariesChapter4InteractiveFinancialStrategy?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDongFigure4-2Chapter4FinancialImplicationsofProduct-MarketandOrganizationalStrategicChoices?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong18Chapter4TheFrameworkof

NewVentureValuation創(chuàng)業(yè)企業(yè)價值評估?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong19ValuationChapter8

內(nèi)部與外部價值評估

（萬元）

創(chuàng)業(yè)者客觀預測投資者相信創(chuàng)業(yè)者投資者不相信創(chuàng)業(yè)者10050?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong20ValuationChapter8

內(nèi)部與外部價值評估

（萬元）

創(chuàng)業(yè)者客觀預測創(chuàng)業(yè)者夸大預測投資者相信創(chuàng)業(yè)者投資者不相信創(chuàng)業(yè)者1001505075?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong21HurdleRatesForVentureCapitalChapter8?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong2214%-92firmsin‘60sand‘70s.23%-beforefees,100firmsinthe‘60s16%-publicfundstockreturnsfrom1959to1985.27%-11firmsfrom1974to1979.13.5%-from1974to1989.20.7%-from1987to1996.Howarethehurdleratesreconciledwithrealizedrates?VentureCapitalRealizedRatesofReturn(basedonvariousstudies)EntrepreneurialFinance,SmithandKiholmSmithChapter8?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong23ValuationMethodsValue=PresentvalueoffuturecashflowsValueTwoconceptuallyequivalentapproachesThechoiceofmethoddependsoninformationavailability.

RADR-Risk-AdjustedDiscountRate

CEQ-CertaintyEquivalentCashFlowChapter8RealOption?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDongAnIntroductiontoOptionsOption-ArighttomakeadecisioninthefutureElementsofanoptionAnunderlyingassetExerciseprice(strikeprice)ExpirationdateEuropeanorAmericanformRiskfreerateBasicoptionsCalloptionPutoptionFinancialoptionsRealoptionsComplexoptionsContingencies-OptioncreatedbysomeearlieractionInterdependencies-OptionswithinterdependentvaluesChapter4?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong25OptionsAcall

isanoptionto BUY

acertainasset

byacertaindate

foracertainpriceAput

isanoptionto SELL

a certainasset

bya certaindate

fora certainprice1973年股票期權交易?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong26Forwards

vsOptionsAforwardcontract

givestheholder

theOBLIGATION

tobuyorsell atacertainpriceAnoption

givestheholder

theRIGHT

tobuyorsellatacertainprice?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong27Options

合約中的價格——

執(zhí)行價格

exercisepriceorstrikeprice合約中的日期——

到期日，執(zhí)行日，期滿日expirationdata,exercisedate,maturity美式期權

Americanoptions

可以在期權有效期內(nèi)任何時候執(zhí)行。歐式期權

Europeanoptions

只能在到期日執(zhí)行交易中多數(shù)是美式期權?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong28Long

Call

onIBMProfitfrombuying100IBMEuropeancall

option:optionprice=$5,strikeprice=$100,spotprice=$98,T=2month

Figure1.2

3020100-5708090100110120130Profit($)Terminalstockprice($)?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong29Long

Put

onExxonProfitfrombuying

anExxonEuropeanput

option:optionprice=$7,strikeprice=$70Figure1.3

3020100-7706050408090100Profit($)Terminalstockprice($)?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong30Short

Call

onIBMFigure1.4(p.9)

Profitfromwriting

anIBMEuropeancall

option:optionprice=$5,strikeprice=$100-30-20-1005708090100110120130Profit($)Terminalstockprice($)?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong31Short

Put

onExxonFigure1.5(p.9)

Profitfromwriting

anExxonEuropeanput

option:optionprice=$7,strikeprice=$70-30-20-1070706050408090100Profit($)Terminalstockprice($)?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong32PayoffsfromOptionsFigure1.6(p.8),

X-Strikeprice,ST

-Priceofassetamaturity

longcall(看漲期權多頭)shortcall(看漲期權空頭）

longput(看跌期權多頭）shortput(看跌期權空頭）PayoffPayoffSTSTXXPayoffPayoffSTSTXX?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong33Put-CallParityOptionPricingModelsbasedonno-arbitrageStock+Put=Call+PV(ExercisePrice)RoleofcompletemarketsFinancialOptionsCompletemarketspletemarketsRealOptionsCompletemarketspletemarketsComplexRealOptions(RainbowOptions)DiscretescenariosSimulationChapter4ValuingOptions?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDongChapter4ExtendingbrandnamestonewproductsormarketingthroughexistingdistributionchannelsDeferExpandorcontractAbandonSwitchinputsoroutputsGrowTowaitbeforetakinganactionuntilmoreisknownortimingisexpectedtobemorefavorableToincreaseordecreasethescaleofaoperationinresponsetodemandTodiscontinueanoperationandliquidatetheassetsTocommitinvestmentinstagesgivingrisetoaseriesofvaluationsandabandonmentoptionsToalterthemixofinputsoroutputsofaproductionprocessinresponsetomarketpricesStageinvestmentToexpandthescopeofactivitiestocapitalizeonnewperceivedopportunitiesExamplesDescriptionOptionAddingorsubtractingtothedailyflightsonanairlinerouteoraddingmemorytoacomputerWhentoharvestastandoftrees,introduceanewproduct,orreplaceanexistingpieceofequipmentDiscontinuingaresearchproject,closingastore,orresigningfromcurrentemploymentStagingofresearchanddevelopmentprojectsorfinancialcommitmentstoanewventureTheoutputmixofrefinedcrudeoilproductsorsubstitutingcoalfornaturalgastoproduceelectricityExamplesofRealOptions?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong35Chapter5

NewVentureFinancing

創(chuàng)業(yè)企業(yè)融資

?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong36TimeDollarsRevenueNeteCashFlow00DevelopmentStart-upEarlyGrowthRapidGrowthExitFigure1-2StagesofNewVentureDevelopment

Chapter2?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong37BootstrappingSeedFinancingR&DFinancingStart-upFinancingFirst-stageFinancingSecond-stageFinancingThird-stageFinancingMezzanineFinancingBridgeFinancingLBO,MBO,IPOSequenceofNewVentureFinancing

Chapter2?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong38Self,Friends,andFamilyBusinessAngelsVentureCapitalInvestorsSmallBusinessInvestmentCompanies(SBICs)TradeCreditandFactoringAsset-basedLendingMezzanineCapitalPrivatePlacementsofEquity(RelationalInvestors)IPOsPublicDebtSourcesofNewVentureFinancing

Chapter2?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong39SourcesofNewVentureFinancing

Chapter2

DevelopmentStart-upEarlyGrowthRapidGrowthExitEntrepreneur

FriendsandFamily

AngelInvestors

StrategicPartner

VentureCapital

Asset-basedLender

EquipmentLessor

SBIC

TradeCredit

Factor

MezzanineLender

PublicDebt

IPO

Acquisition,LBO,MBO

Blueshadingindicatesprimaryfocusofinvestortype.Grayshadingindicatessecondaryfocus,orfocusofasubsetofinvestors.?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong40Chapter5

FinancialForecasting?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong41AdisciplinedmeanstoevaluatethecashneedsofaventureAnaidtodeterminewhetheraproposedventuredeservestheentrepreneur’sinvestmentofcapitalandeffortAmeanstocomparetheexpectedvaluesofstrategicalternativesAwaytodemonstrateprojectmeritstoinvestorsandtouseinnegotiatingownershipAwaytoidentifyappropriatebenchmarksforassessingprojectdevelopmentBenefitsofFinancialForecastingChapter6?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong42KeyDeterminantsofFinancialNeeds1)

Minimumefficientscaleandcapitalintensity2)Profitability3)Cashflow4)SalesgrowthChapter6?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDongFigure6-2QuantityDollarsQQ*Manufacturer’sLongRunAverageCost(LRAC)Chapter6?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong44Chapter6

VentureCapital風險投資?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong45

Chapter2VentureCapitalSource?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong46Source:

Smith,RichardL.;Smith,JanetKiholmEntrepreneurialFinance,JohnWiley,2000.Chapter14OrganizationalStructureofVentureCapitalInvestmentPortfolioCompaniesValuecreation

GeneratedealflowScreenopportunitiesHarvestinvestments

NegotiatedealsMonitorandadviseGeneralPartnersVentureCapitalFund

PensionplanEndowmentsLifeinsurancecompanies

CorporationsIndividualsLimitedPartnersEffortand1%ofcapitalAnnualManagementFee2-3%CarriedInterest20-30%ofGain99%ofInvestmentCapitalCapitalAppreciation70-80%ofGainInvestmentCapitalandEffortFinancialClaims?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong47Chapter14AllocationofVentureCapitalistTimeChapter8

Harvesting?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong49HarvestingAlternativesInitialpublicofferingPrivateplacement/privatesaleRoll-upIPOManagementbuy-outEmployeestockownershipplanChapter8?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong50

Chapter9

TheNewBusiness?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong51Chapter1Learnhowandwhybusinessplansofnewventuresaredifferent.Knowwhattoincludeandwhattoleaveout.Understandtherelationshiptostrategicplanning.Usemilestonesandfinancialprojectionsintheplan.Usetheplantosignalingtheentrepreneur’sbeliefs,commitment,andcapabilities.Understandhowtheplancanfacilitatenegotiationwithoutsideinvestors.LearningObjectives?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong52WhatisaBusinessPlan?AwrittendocumentSummarizesthepurposeandoverridingstrategyoftheventureProvidesdetailsonoperation,financing,marketing,andmanagementAsetofhypothesesaboutanopportunityChapter1?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong53Chapter1Forecastsandprojectionsusuallyarelessprecise.Agreaterinvestmentinplanningmaybewarranted.Deviationsfromplansarelikelytobeduetowrongassumptions.Notveryusefulforevaluatingmanagerperformance.Morelikelytobereliedonexternally.Morelikelytobeusedtoattractinvestmentcapital.Oftenrequiregreaterbreadthofcoverage.Unconstrainedbypreviousdecisions.WhatMakestheBusinessPlansofNewVenturesDifferent??GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,EntrepreneurialFinance,WangDong54Investmentandfinancingdecisionsareinterdependent.Diversificationofriskaffectsinvestmentvalue.Outsideinvestorsmaybeactivelyinvolvedinaventure.Thepartieshavedifferentinformation(andbeliefs).Thepartieshavedifferentincentivesfromeachother.Newventuresareportfoliosofrealoptions.Valuetotheentrepreneurisdifferentfromvaluetoshareholders.EntrepreneurialFinancevs.CorporateFinanceChapter1?GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,2006,Entre