宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)MBA教程

二、宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)計量與核算

MEASURINGANATION’SINCOME第一頁，共四十五頁。

TheCircularFlow

Households

GovernmentFirms

MarketsforFactorofProduction

FinancialMarketsMarketsforGoodsandServices

ForeignCountryFirmRevenueIncomeFactorPaymentsPrivateSavingTaxesGovernmentDeficitConsumptionGovernmentPurchasesInvestmentImportExportInternationalCapitalFlow第二頁，共四十五頁。RichardStone(理查德·斯通)1984年獲諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎。二戰(zhàn)期間，完成《戰(zhàn)爭財源分析及1938和1940國民收入和支出估計》白皮書。時任英國財政部顧問的凱恩斯感動地說：“我們在一個通過統(tǒng)計的快樂時代中”。1945年任劍橋大學(xué)新成立的應(yīng)用經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)系的第一任主任。1950年，受聯(lián)合國統(tǒng)計委員會委托，出版《國民帳戶體系》（SNA），1968年修訂后正式出版。1975年出版《社會和人口統(tǒng)計系統(tǒng)》（SSDS,Towardsasystemofsocialanddemographicstatistics）。第三頁，共四十五頁。WassilyLeontief(沃西里·里昂惕夫)1973年獲諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎。1906年出生在圣彼得堡，1929年任中國鐵道部顧問，1931年進(jìn)入美國國民經(jīng)濟(jì)研究局（NBER），1946年哈佛大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授。1941年出版《美國經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)：1919-1929》，第一次用投入產(chǎn)出法進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)分析。1966年出版《投入產(chǎn)出經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)》。第四頁，共四十五頁。

●國民收入帳戶●投入產(chǎn)出表●資金循環(huán)表●國際收支表●國民資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表國民帳戶體系A(chǔ)SYSTEMOFNATIONALACCOUNTS第五頁，共四十五頁。Grossdomesticproduct(GDP)isameasureoftheincomeandexpendituresofaneconomy.Itisthetotalmarketvalueofallfinalgoodsandservicesproducedwithinacountryinagiventimeperiod.GrossDomesticProduct第六頁，共四十五頁。ImportantFeaturesofGDPOutputisvaluedatmarketprices.Itrecordsonlythevalueoffinalgoods,notintermediategoods(thevalueiscountedonlyonce).Itincludesbothtangiblegoods(food,clothing,cars)andintangibleservices(haircuts,housecleaning,doctorvisits).第七頁，共四十五頁。ImportantFeaturesofGDPItincludesgoodsandservicescurrentlyproduced,nottransactionsinvolvinggoodsproducedinthepast.Itmeasuresthevalueofproductionwithinthegeographicconfinesofacountry.

第八頁，共四十五頁。ImportantFeaturesofGDPItmeasuresthevalueofproductionthattakesplacewithinaspecificintervaloftime,usuallyayearoraquarter(threemonths).第九頁，共四十五頁。WhatIsCountedinGDP?GDPincludesallitemsproducedintheeconomyandsoldlegallyinmarkets.第十頁，共四十五頁。WhatIsNotCountedinGDP?GDPexcludesmostitemsthatareproducedandconsumedathomeandthatneverenterthemarketplace.Itexcludesitemsproducedandsoldillicitly,suchasillegaldrugs.第十一頁，共四十五頁。GrossNationalProductGrossnationalproduct(GNP)isthetotalmarketvalueofallfinalgoodsandservicesproducedwithinagivenperiodoftimebyanation’spermanentresidents,regardlessofwheretheyare.第十二頁，共四十五頁。ThreeOtherMeasuresofIncomeNetNationalProduct(NNP)PersonalIncomeDisposablePersonalIncome第十三頁，共四十五頁。NetNationalProduct(NNP)Thetotalincomeoftheresidentsofanationaftersubtractinglossesfromdepreciation.第十四頁，共四十五頁。PersonalIncomeTheincomethathouseholdsandnoncorporatebusinessesreceive.第十五頁，共四十五頁。DisposablePersonalIncomeTheincomethathouseholdandnoncorporatebusinesseshaveleftaftersatisfyingtheirobligationstothegovernment.第十六頁，共四十五頁。GrossNationalProductFromStatisticalAbstractoftheUnitedStates第十七頁，共四十五頁。GNP—NationalandPerCapitaIncomeFromStatisticalAbstractoftheUnitedStates第十八頁，共四十五頁。NationalIncomeFromStatisticalAbstractoftheUnitedStates第十九頁，共四十五頁。TheFourComponentsofGDPGDP(Y)isthesumofthefollowing:

?Consumption(C)

?Investment(I)

?GovernmentPurchases(G)

?NetExports(NX)Y=C+I+G+NX第二十頁，共四十五頁。TheFourComponentsofGDP

Consumption(C):

?Thespendingbyhouseholdsongoods andservices,withtheexceptionof purchasesofnewhousing.Investment(I):

?Thespendingoncapitalequipment, inventories,andstructures,including newhousing.第二十一頁，共四十五頁。TheFourComponentsofGDPGovernmentPurchases(G):

?Thespendingongoodsandservicesby local,state,andfederalgovernments.

?Doesnotincludetransferpayments becausetheyarenotmadeinexchangefor currentlyproducedgoodsorservices.NetExports

(NX):

?Exportsminusimports.第二十二頁，共四十五頁。BreakdownofU.S.GDP:2000第二十三頁，共四十五頁。BreakdownofU.S.GDP:2000Consumption69%第二十四頁，共四十五頁。Investment15%BreakdownofU.S.GDP:2000Consumption68%第二十五頁，共四十五頁。Consumption68%GovernmentPurchases19%BreakdownofU.S.GDP:2000Investment15%第二十六頁，共四十五頁。NetExports-1%BreakdownofU.S.GDP:2000Consumption68%Investment15%GovernmentPurchases19%第二十七頁，共四十五頁。RealversusNominalGDPNominalGDPvaluestheproductionofgoodsandservicesatcurrentprices.RealGDPvaluestheproductionofgoodsandservicesatconstantprices.

第二十八頁，共四十五頁。RealversusNominalGDPAnaccurateviewoftheeconomyrequiresadjustingnominaltorealGDPbyusingtheGDPdeflator.第二十九頁，共四十五頁。價格指數(shù)(PriceIndex)拉斯佩雷斯(Laspeyres)指數(shù)：帕斯卡(Pascke)指數(shù)：第三十頁，共四十五頁。GDPDeflatorTheGDP

deflator

measuresthecurrentlevelofpricesrelativetothelevelofpricesinthebaseyear.IttellsustheriseinnominalGDPthatisattributabletoariseinpricesratherthanariseinthequantitiesproduced.第三十一頁，共四十五頁。GDPDeflatorTheGDPdeflatoriscalculatedasfollows:第三十二頁，共四十五頁。GDPDeflatorTheGDPdeflatoriscalculatedasfollows:第三十三頁，共四十五頁。ConvertingNominalGDPtoRealGDPNominalGDPisconvertedtorealGDPasfollows:第三十四頁，共四十五頁。ConvertingNominalGDPtoRealGDPNominalGDPisconvertedtorealGDPasfollows:第三十五頁，共四十五頁。ConsumerPriceIndexTheconsumerpriceindex

(CPI)isameasureoftheoverallcostofthegoodsandservicesboughtbyatypicalconsumer.Itisusedtomonitorchangesinthecostoflivingovertime.Itreportsthemovementofpricesusinganindexnumber.

第三十六頁，共四十五頁。ConsumerPriceIndexWhentheCPIrises,thetypicalfamilyhastospendmoredollarstomaintainthesamestandardofliving.第三十七頁，共四十五頁。TheConsumerPriceIndex

versustheGDPDeflatorEconomistsandpolicymakersuseboththeGDPdeflatorandtheconsumerpriceindextogaugehowquicklypricesarerising.Thereareimportantdifferencesbetweenthetwo.第三十八頁，共四十五頁。TheConsumerPriceIndex

versustheGDPDeflatorTheCPI... ...includesonlyconsumergoods. ...includesimports. ...ismeasuredusingafixedbasketofgoodsandservices.第三十九頁，共四十五頁。TheConsumerPriceIndex

versustheGDPDeflatorTheGDPPriceDeflator... ...includesallgoodsandservicesproduceddomestically. ...excludesimports. ...ismeasuredusingcurrentlyproducedgoodsandservices.第四十頁，共四十五頁。GDPandEconomicWell-BeingGDPisthebestsinglemeasureoftheeconomicwell-beingofasociety.GDPperperson

tellsustheincomeandexpenditureoftheaveragepersonintheeconomy.第四十一頁，共四十五頁。GDPandEconomicWell-BeingHigherGDPperpersonindicatesahigherstandardofliving.GDPisnotaperfectmeasureofthe happinessorqualityoflife,however.第四十二頁，共四十五頁。GDPandEconomicWell-BeingSomethingsthatcontributetowell-beingarenotincludedinGDP.

?Thevalueofleisure.

?Thevalueofacleanenvironment.

?Thevalueofalmostallactivitythattakesplaceoutsideofmarkets,suchasthevalueofthetimep