國際戰(zhàn)略研究中心中國人力資本對國家競爭力的影響英20225

商業(yè)市場調(diào)研報告企業(yè)行業(yè)分析方案CSIS

BRIEFS行業(yè)文檔手冊THE

ISSUEHow

will

the

strengths

and

weaknesses

of

China’s

human

capital

impact

national

competitiveness?

China’s

efforts

to

maintaineconomic

growth,

strengthen

supply

chains,

develop

strategic

science,

technology,

engineering,

and

mathematics

(STEM)

sectors,and

secure

a

modern

military

edge

hinges

on

the

ability

to

cultivate

and

utilize

human

capital.

As

the

United

States

and

othercountries

increasingly

engage

in

multidomain

competition

with

China,

it

is

critical

to

start

from

a

clear-eyed

understandingof

China’s

human

capital

and

Beijing’s

strategy

for

nurturing

national

talent.

Investments

in

higher

education,

strategic

STEMsectors,

and

military

talent

demonstrate

key

areas

in

which

Beijing

is

focusing

on

cultivating

human

capital.

However,

Chinamust

overcome

significant

obstacles

to

innovate

as

it

faces

substantial

demographic

pressures,

socio-economic

inequalities,

andchallenges

to

attracting

and

retaining

top

talent

both

domestically

and

internationally.MAY

2022By

Briana

Boland,

Kevin

Dong,

Jude

Blanchette,

and

Ryan

HassINTRODUCTIONAccording

to

the

World

Bank,

human

capital

“consistsof

the

knowledge,

skills,

and

health

that

people

investin

and

accumulate

throughout

their

lives,

enablingthem

to

realize

their

potential

as

productive

members

ofsociety.”1

Investments

in

human

capital

are

a

major

driverof

growth

for

modern

economies

and

the

foundation

ofnational

capacity

to

support

key

technology

industriesand

unlock

new

scientific

discoveries.2

China’s

ability

tocultivate,

attract,

and

retain

human

capital—or

as

Beijingmore

commonly

puts

it,

national

“talent”—will

shape

itscompetitiveness

vis-à-vis

the

United

States

as

a

global

powerand

impact

the

future

of

innovation

and

talent

on

the

worldstage.

As

Chinese

leader

Xi

Jinping

has

stated,

“talent

is

astrategic

resource

to

achieve

national

revitalization

and

winthe

initiative

in

international

competition.”3China’s

massive

population

provides

a

foundationaladvantage

in

the

supply

of

talent.

The

country’s

rapideconomic

growth

in

recent

decades

can

be

directly

linkedto

its

mobilization

of

human

capital,

as

China’s

shift

froman

agrarian

base

to

more

productive

industry

and

servicessectors

was

enabled

by

a

growing

share

of

the

populationattaining

higher

education

levels

and

entering

theworkforce.4

However,

the

government’s

strict

populationcontrol

policies,

which

until

2016

restricted

the

majorityof

Chinese

families

to

only

having

one

child,

left

Chinawith

a

rapidly

aging

population

and

declining

workforce.One

recent

study

published

in

The

Lancet

predicts

thatChina’s

population

could

decline

by

nearly

50

percent

by2050.5

As

Beijing

seeks

to

move

national

industries

up

thevalue

chain

in

manufacturing,

technology,

and

services,demand

for

high-skilled

labor

is

outpacing

supply.

Chinathus

faces

an

acute

skills

shortage.6

For

example,

accordingto

the

“Manufacturing

Talent

Development

PlanningGuide”

released

by

the

Ministry

of

Human

Resourcesand

Social

Services,

China

will

face

a

talent

demand

gapof

nearly

30

million

workers

by

2025

in

10

key

areas

ofChina’s

manufacturing

industry,

or

a

48

percent

shortageof

skilled

workers

to

meet

demand.7

Moreover,

persistent

CSIS

BRIEFS

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WWW.CSIS.ORG

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1

商業(yè)分析研究報告文檔HowChina’s

HumanCapital

ImpactsIts

National

Competitiveness分析報告文檔AgeAge行業(yè)文檔手冊that

require

high-skilled

workers,

China

could

face

majorissues

of

structural

unemployment

for

low-skilled

workersconcentrated

in

rural

areas.

Other

countries

that

haveescaped

the

“middle-income

trap,”

such

as

Taiwan

andSouth

Korea,

tended

to

have

higher

levels

of

secondaryeducation

that

helped

transition

the

workforce

frommanufacturing

to

higher-value-added

work.

In

China,

lowhigh

school

graduation

rates,

pervasive

early

childhooddevelopment

challenges,

and

urban-rural

divides

codifiedin

regulations

such

as

the

hukou

system

could

limit

thecountry’s

transition

to

a

high-skilled

workforce.9EARLY

CHILDHOOD

DEVELOPMENTWhile

discussions

of

human

capital

may

first

conjureimages

of

PhD

graduates

or

high-skilled

tech

workers,

agrowing

field

of

academic

study

recognizes

that

humancapital

cultivation

begins

in

childhood.

As

90

percentof

a

person’s

brain

development

happens

by

the

ageof

five,

research

shows

that

healthy

early

childhooddevelopment

is

linked

to

positive

long-term

outcomesin

health,

educational

attainment,

future

earnings,

andemployment—all

key

aspects

for

a

strong

national

humancapital

environment.10

Since

the

18th

Party

Congress

in2012,

the

Chinese

Communist

Party

(CCP)

has

consideredchildren

a

strategic

component

of

creating

a

national“talent

foundation”

and

has

accordingly

undertakennational

planning

to

address

issues

of

early

childhooddevelopment

and

primary

education.11However,

early

childhood

development

still

presentschallenges

for

China.

In

particular,

urban-rural

inequalityin

China

negatively

impacts

early

childhood

developmentin

rural

areas,

evident

in

studies

of

health

issues

and

CSIS

BRIEFS

|

WWW.CSIS.ORG

|

2Figure

1:

U.S.

and

Figure1:Population

Pyramids

2050Population

PyramidsChina

2050

U.S.

andChina-2.50%0.00%2.50%5.00%90-9480-8470-7460-6450-5440-4430-3420-2410-14

0-4

-5.00%FemaleMaleChinaPopulationPyramid

100+-2.00%0.00%2.00%4.00%90-9480-8470-7460-6450-5440-4430-3420-2410-14

0-4

-4.00%FemaleMaleSource:

United

Nations,

Department

of

Economic

and

Social

Affairs,

Population

Division,

“World

Population

Prospects

2019,”

/wpp/graphs/.

freemanchair

Prospects

2019,”

/wpp/graphs/.

inchina

studiesUSAPopulation

Pyramid

商業(yè)分析研究報告文檔

100+inequalities

in

education

and

career

opportunities

for

ruralpopulations,

including

over

two-thirds

of

China’s

youth,limit

the

country’s

future

supply

of

talent.8This

brief

aims

to

provide

a

clear-eyed

overview

of

theChinese

government’s

national

strategy

for

cultivatingtalent

and

the

challenges

that

China’s

national

plannersconfront

in

their

efforts

to

do

so.

First,

the

brief

discussesfoundational

constraints

in

China’s

human

capital

andhow

the

government

is

attempting

to

address

them.

Next,it

examines

efforts

to

create

talent

pipelines

for

strategicskill

sets

in

higher

education,

science

and

technologyindustries,

and

the

military.

Finally,

it

explores

China’sprospects

for

attracting

and

retaining

talent

acrossinternational

borders.FOUNDATIONAL

CONSTRAINTS

INCHINA’S

HUMAN

CAPITAL

ENVIRONMENTThe

ability

of

an

individual

to

one

day

enter

a

enter

lab,research

institute,

or

corporate

boardroom

is

impacted

bygovernment

investments

and

regulations,

societal

norms,and

access

to

opportunities

that

can

either

promote

orlimit

that

individual’s

potential.

In

China’s

domesticcontext,

urban-rural

inequities

in

education

and

mobility,policies

that

restrict

and

repress

ethnic

minorities,

andevolving

social

norms

represent

several

key

constraints

onChina’s

ability

to

fully

tap

into

national

talent.URBAN-RURAL

INEQUALITYInequality

between

urban

and

rural

populations

in

Chinapresents

a

critical

challenge

to

the

country’s

economicproductivity

and

opportunities

to

develop

human

capital.

分析報告文檔As

wages

rise

and

Beijing

promotes

higher-value

industriesYuan(RMB)行業(yè)文檔手冊50000for

the

country’s

overall

economic

future.17SECONDARY

EDUCATIONIn

the

last

70

years,

China

dramatically

expanded

the

reachof

its

education

system,

increasing

the

national

literacyrate

from

about

20

percent

in

1949

to

nearly

100

percenttoday.18

However,

the

country’s

education

system

stillfaces

deep-seated

challenges

in

cultivating

a

high-skilledworkforce.

Compared

to

other

middle-income

countries,China’s

high

school

graduation

rate

is

low.

One

studyestimates

that

in

2015,

as

little

as

30

percent

of

China’sworkforce

had

finished

high

school,

a

graduation

ratemuch

lower

than

most

middle-income

countries,

includingMexico

(62

percent),

South

Africa

(58

percent),

Malaysia(49

percent),

and

the

Philippines

(42

percent).19For

students

that

do

complete

their

secondary

education,future

career

and

skill

development

opportunities

canbe

limited

by

China’s

rigid

national

examination

system.Higher

education

options

for

Chinese

high

schoolers

arelargely

determined

by

their

performance

on

the

“gaokao,”the

high-pressure

national

standardized

college

entranceexam

that

acts

as

the

single

primary

factor

in

collegeadmission.

Gaokao

scores

are

weighed

much

more

stronglyin

determining

whether

a

student

is

admitted

to

a

universitythan

U.S.

college

entrance

exams

such

as

the

SAT,

makingit

extremely

difficult

for

aspiring

university

students

toovercome

a

bad

gaokao

score

through

performance

on

other

CSIS

BRIEFS

|

WWW.CSIS.ORG

|

3UrbanRural19902000201020200Figure

2:

Urban-Rural

Disposable

Income

Levels

in

ChinaSource:

National

Bureau

of

Statistics

of

China,

China

Statistical

Yearbook

2021

(China

Statistics

Press,

2021),

/tjsj/ndsj/2021/indexeh.htm.

Source:

National

Bureau

of

Statistics

of

China,

ChinaStatistical

Yearbook

2021

(China

Statistics

freeman

chair

Press,

2021),/tjsj/ndsj/2021/indexeh.htm.

inchina

studies商業(yè)分析研究報告文檔

40000

30000

20000

10000measures

of

cognitive

development,

such

as

the

BayleyTest.12

In

terms

of

children’s

health,

scholars

estimatethat

60

percent

of

elementary

school

children

in

ruralChina

are

affected

by

anemia,

untreated

vision

problems,or

intestinal

worms,

all

of

which

negatively

impact

theirability

to

learn

at

a

critical

age.13

Studies

of

developmentaldelays

among

infants

and

toddlers

in

China

show

thataround

50

percent

of

rural

children

exhibit

cognitivedelays,

language

delays,

and

socio-emotional

delays

inearly

childhood.

For

older

children

of

elementary

andjunior-high

age,

rates

of

developmental

delays

continue

tobe

around

40

percent.14

Because

of

the

outsized

importanceof

the

first

few

years

of

life

on

the

development

offundamental

cognitive,

socio-emotional,

and

otherabilities,

low

levels

of

cognitive

development

at

thisstage

have

profound

effects

later

in

life

and

can

includebehavioral

problems,

lower

academic

achievement,

anddecreased

lifetime

income.15

To

address

the

root

of

theseinequalities,

prominent

scholars

have

suggested

thatinterventions

to

support

childhood

nutrition

and

cognitivedevelopment

in

rural

areas

could

prove

highly

effective.16Given

that

over

two-thirds

of

China’s

children

come

fromrural

areas,

early

childhood

development

is

a

critical

issuenot

only

for

ameliorating

urban-rural

inequality

but

also

分析報告文檔商業(yè)市場調(diào)研報告是指調(diào)查和收集有關(guān)商業(yè)市場需求、消費者行為、競爭狀況、市場趨勢等方面的信息，從而為企業(yè)決策者提供有助于確定市場方向和制定營銷策略的實用數(shù)據(jù)和建議。在當今商業(yè)競爭日益激烈的環(huán)境下，商業(yè)市場調(diào)研報告對企業(yè)的發(fā)展至關(guān)重要。商業(yè)市場調(diào)研報告的形式和內(nèi)容可因行業(yè)和目標而異，通常包括市場情況、產(chǎn)品特色、消費者行為和需求、競爭對手及其策略等方面的信息。針對不同的信息，企業(yè)可以采用各種方式來獲取市場數(shù)據(jù)，如調(diào)查問卷、訪談、觀察等方式。在調(diào)研報告中，企業(yè)需要對市場數(shù)據(jù)和信息進行分析，得出結(jié)論和建議，并據(jù)此提供具體的市場營銷策略和行動方案。此外，企業(yè)還應(yīng)該對己行動的效果及時追蹤和評估，并針對性地調(diào)整和完善市場策略。商業(yè)市場調(diào)研過程中，我們首先需要考慮的是需要確定的目標。調(diào)研目標應(yīng)據(jù)此制定市場調(diào)研方案。通常包括需求滿足度、市場規(guī)模、產(chǎn)品可行性和客戶類型等。調(diào)研計劃的其他方面包括調(diào)研方式、調(diào)研時期和成本等。商業(yè)調(diào)研分析報告作用行業(yè)文檔手冊Source:OECD,EducationataGlance2021(Paris:OECD,2021),scales

such

as

a

high

GPA

or

extracurriculars.

Designed

tooffer

equal

opportunity

for

students

across

China,

and

withsocietal

roots

that

trace

back

to

the

imperial

examinationsystem,

the

gaokao

also

puts

intense

social

pressure

onyoung

students

and

greatly

limits

academic

options

forthose

who

perform

poorly.

Students

who

score

lower

on

thetests

can

only

attend

programs

that

likely

lack

the

alumninetworks

or

name

recognition

needed

to

give

graduates

aboost

in

China’s

competitive

job

market.

Indeed,

accordingto

a

2017

joint

study

by

researchers

from

TsinghuaUniversity

and

UC

San

Diego,

students

from

China’s

moreprestigious

universities

earned

30

to

40

percent

more

onaverage

compared

with

their

peers

who

went

to

lower-tierinstitutions,

a

difference

that

can

be

ascribed

to

bettercareer

support,

networks,

and

name

recognition

by

potentialemployers.20

The

prestige

of

the

gaokao

also

limits

thenational

development

of

vocational

schools,

which

areseparate

from

the

exam

system.

This

lowers

the

qualityand

amount

of

financial

resources,

infrastructure,

andeducational

personnel

these

schools

receive

and

therebyreduces

pathways

for

young

people

to

build

successfulcareers

beyond

the

route

of

doing

well

on

a

single

test.21THE

HUKOU

SYSTEM

AND

DOMESTIC

MOBILITYWhile

the

magnitude

of

urban-rural

inequalities

cannotbe

attributed

to

a

single

regulatory

system,

examiningChina’s

household

registration

system

demonstrateshow

urban-rural

divisions

are

codified

in

regulations

thatlimit

mobility

for

rural

workers,

thus

constraining

China’sability

to

move

workers

to

where

their

skills

could

be

mostproductively

applied.

22

Adopted

in

the

1950s,

the

“hukou”system

broadly

divides

rural

and

urban

citizens.

In

effect,the

system

limits

access

to

public

goods

for

rural

migrantsto

China’s

cities,

causing

a

host

of

issues

for

China’sinternal

migrants,

including

limiting

access

to

urban

publiceducation,

limiting

access

to

healthcare

services

in

cities,and

discriminating

against

rural

hukou

holders

in

the

labormarket.

Overall,

the

hukou

system

controls

the

rate

of

rural-to-urban

migration

as

part

of

a

national

effort

to

limit

riskof

social

instability,

which

generates

a

drag

on

total

nationaleconomic

productivity

and

worsens

rural-urban

inequality.23According

to

a

2015

survey

by

the

Institute

of

Sociology,about

80

percent

of

China’s

students

attending

vocationalcolleges

came

from

rural

backgrounds,

whereas

the

majorityof

students

at

top

“elite”

universities

came

from

urbanbackgrounds

(65

percent).

Meanwhile,

rural

students

madeup

the

majority

of

students

in

“ordinary”

second-

and

third-tier

universities

(56

percent),

relegating

many

rural

youthsto

jobs

with

lower

salaries,

fewer

benefits,

and

less

stability.This

inequality

in

access

to

educational

resources

onlyhardens

rural-urban

inequality

as

the

disparity

is

passedfrom

older

generations

to

younger

ones.24The

shortcomings

of

the

hukou

system

are

not

lost

onChinese

policymakers,

and

both

the

central

government

CSIS

BRIEFS

|

WWW.CSIS.ORG

|

4ChinaUnited

StatesOECDAverage40%20%0%freeman

chairinchina

studiesShareof

25-34-year-oldswith

belowuppersecondaryattainmentShareof

25-34-year-oldswith

upper

secondaryattainmentShareof

25-34-year-oldswith

tertiaryattainmentFigure

EducationalAttainment

25–34-Year-Olds,

–Year–Olds,202080%60%3:

3:

Attainment

of

of

2020Source:

OECD,

Education

at

a

Glance

2021

(Paris:

OECD,

2021),

/education/education-at-a-glance-2021_b35a14e5-en.

/education/education-at-a-glance-2021_b35a14e5-en.商業(yè)分析研究報告文檔分析報告文檔冊行業(yè)文檔手and

local

authorities

are

pushing

forward

reform.

In

2014,Beijing

launched

the

National

New-type

UrbanizationPlan

(2014–2020),

which

aimed

to

facilitate

ruralmigrants’

transition

to

urban

residents.

In

2021,

theNational

Development

and

Reform

Commission

(NDRC)announced

plans

to

relax

hukou

restrictions

in

most

cities,while

Hainan,

Shanghai,

and

Hangzhou

also

announcedrelaxations

on

living

or

house-buying

restrictions.25

Thoughit

is

too

early

to

assess

the

results

of

last

year’s

hukoureforms,

the

success

of

past

efforts

has

been

mixed.

Onecentral

goal

of

2014’s

National

New-type

UrbanizationPlan

was

to

lessen

the

gap

between

social

benefits

enjoyedby

urban

versus

rural

hukou

holders

in

cities,

but

datashow

that

the

gap

has

instead

widened.26

On

the

otherhand,

research

on

firms

exposed

to

hukou

reform

showshigher

levels

of

labor

market

flexibility

in

cities

withhukou

reform.27

In

short,

though

the

government

is

takingsteps

to

improve

the

hukou

system,

piecemeal

effortswill

continue

to

inhibit

productivity

and

human

capitaldevelopment

in

China

until

there

is

free

labor

mobility.ETHNIC

INEQUALITY

AND

MINORITY

POLICYThe

emphasis

on

social

stability

at

the

root

of

the

hukousystem

also

extends

to

government

policies

towardethnic

minorities.

More

than

91

percent

of

China’spopulation

is

Han

Chinese,

while

the

remainder

of

China’spopulation

identifies

as

an

ethnic

minority.28

Significantsocioeconomic

inequalities

between

minority

groups

andthe

Han

majority

limit

both

individual

opportunity

forsocial

mobility

and

overall

national

economic

productivity.Studies

have

found

that

minorities

are

paid

lower

wageson

average

and

that

gaps

in

educational

attainment

playinto

the

income

gap

between

Han

and

minority

groups,particularly

in

rural

areas.29

As

China

seeks

to

increasethe

skill

level

of

its

workforce,

limits

on

the

potential

ofthe

125

million

people

who

identify

as

ethnic

minoritiesconstrain

the

country’s

overall

ability

to

fully

utilize

itshuman

capital.However,

the

Chinese

leadership’s

ethnic

minoritypolicy

emphasizes

assimilation,

stability,

and

anti-terrorwork

as

top

priorities.30

Mass

human

rights

abuses

inXinjiang

demonstrate

Beijing’s

willingness

to

promotean

increasingly

repressive

regime

in

the

name

of

fightingterrorism

and

separatism,

regardless

of

the

human

cost.31Chinese

ethnic

policy

varies

by

ethnicity

and

region,

butby

Beijing’s

logic,

the

common

thread

running

throughall

55

of

China’s

ethnic

minorities

is

their

proper

place

aswilling

members

in

a

“Chinese

national

family,”

as

definedby

Xi.

While

official

rhetoric

emphasizes

the

benefitsassimilation

can

bring

to

ethnic

minority

populations,

itoften

downplays

or

ignores

problems

of

cultural

loss

orrights

abuses,

as

well

as

the

social

and

economic

costs

ofinterethnic

divisions

within

China.32LIMITS

ON

THE

INNOVATION

ENVIRONMENTAlongside

the

policy

systems

and

social

support

nets

thatform

the

basis

of

a

strong

human

capital

environment,social

factors

such

as

norms

and

popular

movements

canplay

an

important

role

in

both

promoting

and

limitingpotential.

From

the

unique

entrepreneurship

culturegenerated

in

innovation

hubs

such

as

Silicon

Valley

tothe

impact

of

racial

and

economic

obstacles

in

inhibitinginnovation,

sociocultural

factors

can

both

incubateinnovation

and

create

barriers

for

talent

around

the

world.In

China,

the

impacts

of

gender

discrimination

in

theworkplace

and

a

new

movement

advocating

detachmentfrom

a

competitive

workplace

culture

illustrate

howsocial

forces

and

trends

in

popular

culture

can

limitChina’s

ability

to

fully

utilize

its

human

capital

resources.Meanwhile,

both

the

unique

makeup

of

China’s

state-centric

economy

and

political

backlash

against

prominententrepreneurs

indicate

that

the

country’s

environmentmay

be

trending

in

the

direction

of

restrictingentrepreneurial

potential.An

example

of

the

impact

of

social

movements

on

humancapital

utilization

can

be

found

in

the

recent

popularity

ofthe

“l(fā)ying

flat”

movement,

which

calls

for

relinquishingthe

stresses

and

ambitions

of

modern

life.

In

April

2021,an

online

post

titled

“Lying

Flat

Is

Justice”

went

viral

inChina,

prompting

a

flurry

of

online

discussion

on

thevirtues

of

resigning

from

one’s

job

or

otherwise

eschewingthe

competitive

work

culture

common

in

many

tech

andother

high-skilled

careers.

While

it

is

difficult

to

measurethe

real

impact

of

the

“l(fā)ying

flat”

movement

in

promptingChinese

workers

to

withdraw

from

the

workplace,

surveydata

shows

that

discontent

with

competitive

work

culture

iswidely

felt

among

China’s

white-collar

workers.33

In

a

2019employment

trends

report

produced

by

Zhaopin,

a

leadingcareer

development

consultancy,

80

percent

of

surveyedrespondents

said

that

“respect

for

employees”

is

the

mostimportant

factor

in

corporate

culture,

while

over

50

percentreported

feeling

that

they

needed

to

be

on-call

24/7.34Zhaopin’s

2020

employment

trends

report

highlighted

a

lackof

trust

between

employees

and

employers,

with

only

10percent

of

workers

surveyed

reporting

that

they

trust

theiremployer.35

With

an

already

shrinking

workforce,

China’sgrowth

model

can

ill-afford

burnout

and

disillusionmentlimiting

the

economic

contributions

of

existing

workers.

CSIS

BRIEFS

|

WWW.CSIS.ORG

|

5商業(yè)分析研究報告文檔分析報告文檔行業(yè)文檔手冊The

concrete

impact

of

social

issues

on

economic

growthis

also

evident

in

data

on

gender

discrimination

in

China’sworkforce.

A

combination

of

policy

and

societal

factors

hasincreased

barriers

for

women

in

the

workforce,

resultingin

a

rising

gender

gap

in

labor

force

participation

rates

inChina.

For

example,

while

many

major

economies

haveseen

the

workforce

gender

gaps

close

in

recent

decades,China’s

grew

from

9.4

percent

in

1994

to

14.1

percent

in2020.36

Policy

changes

such

as

declining

numbers

of

state-supported

childcare

facilities

and

social

factors

such

asbias

in

hiring

contribute

to

this

growing

gap,

resulting

inunderutilization

of

China’s

female

workforce.37China’s

entrepreneurship

environment

is

another

areain

which

economic

and

social

structures

may

limitinnovation.

In

an

economy

that

stresses

the

central

roleof

the

government,

many

accomplished

young

Chinesegraduates

consider

working

in

the

state

sector

as

theirideal

job.

In

a

sample

survey

conducted

between

2010

and2015

of

over

30,000

college

graduates

from

90

collegesin

China,

62.5

percent

marked

the

government

or

statesector

as

their

preferred

employer.38

Such

jobs

offer

safetyand

security

that

often

is

attractive

to

urban

collegegraduates.

However,

the

dynamism

and

productivity

ofstate-owned

enterprises

(SOEs)

tends

to

be

lower

t