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2003Text1WildBillDonovanwouldhavelovedtheInternet.TheAmericanspymasterwhobuilttheOfficeofStrategicServicesintheWorldWarandlaterlaidtherootsfortheCIAwasfascinatedwithinformation.DonovanbelievedinⅡusingwhatevertoolscametohandinthe"greatgame"ofespionage—spyingasa"profession".ThesedaystheNet,whichhasalreadyre-madesucheverydaypastimesasbuyingbooksandsendingmail,isreshapingDonovan'svocationaswell.Thelatestrevolutionisn'tsimplyamatterofgentlemenreadingothergentlemen'se-mail.Thatkindofelectronicspyinghasbeengoingonfordecades.Inthepastthreeorfouryears,theWorldWideWebhasgivenbirthtoawholeindustryofpoint-and-clickspying.Thespookscallit"open-sourceintelligence",andastheNetgrows,itisbecomingincreasinglyinfluential.In1995theCIAheldacontesttoseewhocouldcompilethemostdataaboutBurundi.Thewinner,byalargemargin,wasatinyVirginiacompanycalledOpenSourceSolutions,whoseclearadvantagewasitsmasteryoftheelectronicworld.AmongthefirmsmakingthebiggestsplashinthisnewworldisStraitford,Inc.,aprivateintelligence-analysisfirmbasedinAustin,Texas.Straitfordmakesmoneybysellingtheresultsofspying(coveringnationsfromChiletoRussia)tocorporationslikeenergy-servicesfirmMcDermottInternational.Manyofitspredictionsareavailableonlineat.StraifordpresidentGeorgeFriedmansaysheseestheonlineworldasakindofmutuallyreinforcingtoolforbothinformationcollectionanddistribution,aspymaster'sdream.LastweekhisfirmwasbusyvacuumingupdatabitsfromthefarcornersoftheworldandpredictingacrisisinUkraine."Assoonasthatreportruns,we'llsuddenlyget500newInternetsign-upsfromUkraine,"saysFriedman,aformerpoliticalscienceprofessor."Andwe'llhearbackfromsomeofthem."Open-sourcespyingdoeshaveitsrisks,ofcourse,sinceitcanbedifficulttotellgoodinformationfrombad.That'swhereStraitfordearnsitskeep.Friedmanreliesonaleanstaffof20inAustin.Severalofhisstaffmembershavemilitary-intelligencebackgrounds.Heseesthefirm'soutsiderstatusasthekeytoitssuccess.Straitford'sbriefsdon'tsoundliketheusualWashingtonback-and-forthing,wherebyagenciesavoiddramaticdeclarationsonthechancetheymightbewrong.Straitford,saysFriedman,takesprideinitsindependentvoice.比爾·多諾汶肯定會(huì)喜歡網(wǎng)絡(luò)。這位美國(guó)間諜大王對(duì)情報(bào)著迷,他曾經(jīng)在第二次世界大戰(zhàn)時(shí)建立了戰(zhàn)略事務(wù)辦公室,后來(lái)又為中央情報(bào)局的成立打下了基礎(chǔ)。多諾汶相信,在諜報(bào)職業(yè)這個(gè)“大游戲”中可以使用任何手段。如今,互聯(lián)網(wǎng)已經(jīng)改變了買(mǎi)書(shū)和寄信這樣的日?;顒?dòng),也正在改變多諾汶曾經(jīng)從事的這個(gè)職業(yè)。最近的這次革命性的改變不僅僅是一個(gè)人偷看別人的電子郵件的問(wèn)題,這樣的電子間諜活動(dòng)已經(jīng)存在了數(shù)十年。在過(guò)去的三四年中,國(guó)際互聯(lián)網(wǎng)已經(jīng)派生出一個(gè)可稱為點(diǎn)擊諜報(bào)的完整的產(chǎn)業(yè)。間諜們把它稱為“公開(kāi)來(lái)源情報(bào)”。隨著互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的增長(zhǎng),這樣的情報(bào)變得越來(lái)越有影響力。1995年中央情報(bào)局舉辦了一個(gè)競(jìng)賽,看誰(shuí)能夠收集到關(guān)于“布隆迪”的最多信息。勝者勝出了一大截,卻是弗吉尼亞的一家小公司,名為“公開(kāi)來(lái)源解決方案”,它的明顯優(yōu)勢(shì)是它對(duì)電子世界的把握。在這個(gè)新的電子世界中最引起轟動(dòng)的是一個(gè)叫司特雷福的公司,它是得克薩斯州奧斯汀市的一個(gè)私營(yíng)的情報(bào)分析公司。該公司的業(yè)務(wù)是將覆蓋全球各個(gè)國(guó)家的情報(bào)銷售給“麥克德莫國(guó)際”這樣的能源公司。它的許多預(yù)測(cè)在網(wǎng)上都可以查閱,網(wǎng)址。該公司的總裁喬治·弗萊德曼說(shuō),他把網(wǎng)絡(luò)世界視為情報(bào)收集和情報(bào)發(fā)布兩方面相互增強(qiáng)的工具,是間諜們的夢(mèng)想。上周,他的公司正在從遠(yuǎn)在世界的另一角落收集零散的信息,并預(yù)測(cè)在烏克蘭將發(fā)生一場(chǎng)危機(jī)?!耙坏┻@個(gè)報(bào)道發(fā)布,我們將從烏克蘭突然新增500個(gè)瀏覽用戶,”弗萊德曼,一位前政治科學(xué)教授說(shuō),“我們將聽(tīng)到其中一些人的回應(yīng)?!碑?dāng)然公開(kāi)來(lái)源的諜報(bào)活動(dòng)的確有它的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),因?yàn)楹茈y區(qū)分正確與錯(cuò)誤的信息。這正是司特雷福公司掙飯吃的地方。弗萊德曼只在奧斯汀市雇用了為數(shù)不多的雇員。其中的一些有軍事情報(bào)工作背景。他把公司的“局外人”地位視為它成功的關(guān)鍵。司特雷福公司的簡(jiǎn)報(bào)聽(tīng)上去不像華盛頓當(dāng)局常常提供的躲閃的言辭,政府機(jī)構(gòu)往往避免發(fā)布引人注目的言論,因?yàn)檫@些言論可能出錯(cuò)。弗萊德曼說(shuō),司特雷福公司為其獨(dú)立的聲音而感到自豪。2003Text2Toparaphrase18th-centurystatesmanEdmundBurke,"allthatisneededforthetriumphofamisguidedcauseisthatgoodpeopledonothing."Onesuchcausenowseekstoendbiomedicalresearchbecauseofthetheorythatanimalshaverightsrulingouttheiruseinresearch.Scientistsneedtorespondforcefullytoanimalrightsadvocates,whoseargumentsareconfusingthepublicandtherebythreateningadvancesinhealthknowledgeandcare.Leadersoftheanimalrightsmovementtargetbiomedicalresearchbecauseitdependsonpublicfunding,andfewpeopleunderstandtheprocessofhealthcareresearch.Hearingallegationsofcrueltytoanimalsinresearchsettings,manyareperplexedthatanyonewoulddeliberatelyharmananimal.Forexample,agrandmotherlywomanstaffingananimalrightsboothatarecentstreetfairwasdistributingabrochurethatencouragedreadersnottouseanythingthatcomesfromoristestedinanimals—nomeat,nofur,nomedicines.Askedifsheopposedimmunizations,shewantedtoknowifvaccinescomefromanimalresearch.Whenassuredthattheydo,shereplied,"ThenIwouldhavetosayyes."Askedwhatwillhappenwhenepidemicsreturn,shesaid,"Don'tworry,scientistswillfindsomewayofusingcomputers."Suchwell-meaningpeoplejustdon'tunderstand.Scientistsmustcommunicatetheirmessagetothepublicinacompassionate,understandableway—inhumanterms,notinthelanguageofmolecularbiology.Weneedtomakecleartheconnectionbetweenanimalresearchandagrandmother'shipreplacement,afather'sbypassoperation,ababy'svaccinations,andevenapet'sshots.Tothosewhoareunawarethatanimalresearchwasneededtoproducethesetreatments,aswellasnewtreatmentsandvaccines,animalresearchseemswastefulatbestandcruelatworst.Muchcanbedone.Scientistscould"adopt"middleschoolclassesandpresenttheirownresearch.Theyshouldbequicktorespondtoletterstotheeditor,lestanimalrightsmisinformationgounchallengedandacquireadeceptiveappearanceoftruth.Researchinstitutionscouldbeopenedtotours,toshowthatlaboratoryanimalsreceivehumanecare.Finally,becausetheultimatestakeholdersarepatients,thehealthresearchcommunityshouldactivelyrecruittoitscausenotonlywell-knownpersonalitiessuchasStephenCooper,whohasmadecourageousstatementsaboutthevalueofanimalresearch,butallwhoreceivemedicaltreatment.Ifgoodpeopledonothingthereisarealpossibilitythatanuninformedcitizenrywillextinguishthepreciousembersofmedicalprogress.18世紀(jì)政治家埃德蒙·柏克曾說(shuō)過(guò)類似這樣的話,“一個(gè)被誤導(dǎo)的事業(yè)如果要成功,它惟一需要的是好人無(wú)所作為”。一個(gè)這樣的事業(yè)現(xiàn)在正在尋求終止生物醫(yī)學(xué)的研究,因?yàn)橛羞@樣一種理論說(shuō),動(dòng)物享有權(quán)利禁止它們被用于實(shí)驗(yàn)??茖W(xué)家應(yīng)該對(duì)動(dòng)物權(quán)利鼓吹者做出強(qiáng)有力的回應(yīng),因?yàn)樗麄兊难哉摶煜斯姷囊暵?tīng),從而威脅到衛(wèi)生知識(shí)和衛(wèi)生服務(wù)的進(jìn)步。動(dòng)物權(quán)利運(yùn)動(dòng)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者將矛頭指向生物醫(yī)學(xué)研究,原因在于它依賴公共資金的資助,并且很少有人懂得醫(yī)學(xué)研究的過(guò)程。當(dāng)人們聽(tīng)到醫(yī)學(xué)實(shí)驗(yàn)虐待動(dòng)物的指控時(shí),許多人都不明白為什么有人會(huì)故意傷害動(dòng)物。例如,在近期的一次集市上,一位老奶奶站在動(dòng)物權(quán)利宣傳點(diǎn)前散發(fā)小冊(cè)子,規(guī)勸人們不要使用動(dòng)物制品和動(dòng)物實(shí)驗(yàn)制品——肉類,毛皮,藥物。當(dāng)被問(wèn)到她是否反對(duì)免疫接種時(shí),她問(wèn)疫苗是否來(lái)自動(dòng)物實(shí)驗(yàn)。當(dāng)被告知的確如此,她回答道,“那么我不得不說(shuō),是的,我反對(duì)接種”。當(dāng)被問(wèn)到瘟疫爆發(fā)怎么辦時(shí),她說(shuō),“不用擔(dān)心,科學(xué)家會(huì)找到一種方法,用計(jì)算機(jī)來(lái)解決問(wèn)題”???,這樣好心的人們就是不明白??茖W(xué)家必須把他們的意思傳達(dá)給公眾,并且要使用有同情心和通俗易懂的語(yǔ)言,一般人能夠明白的語(yǔ)言,而不要使用分子生物學(xué)的語(yǔ)言。我們需要說(shuō)明動(dòng)物實(shí)驗(yàn)與祖母的髖骨更換、父親的心臟搭橋、嬰兒的免疫接種、甚至寵物的注射針劑都密切相關(guān)。許多人不明白獲得這些新的治療方法和疫苗都必須進(jìn)行動(dòng)物實(shí)驗(yàn)。對(duì)于他們來(lái)說(shuō),動(dòng)物實(shí)驗(yàn)說(shuō)得好是浪費(fèi),說(shuō)得不好是殘忍。有很多事情可以做??茖W(xué)家可以進(jìn)入中學(xué)課堂,展示他們的實(shí)驗(yàn)結(jié)果。他們應(yīng)該對(duì)報(bào)刊的讀者來(lái)信及時(shí)做出反應(yīng),以防止動(dòng)物權(quán)利的誤導(dǎo)言論在毫無(wú)質(zhì)疑的情況下橫行,從而獲得一副真理的面容??蒲袡C(jī)構(gòu)應(yīng)該對(duì)外開(kāi)放,讓人參觀,向人們展示實(shí)驗(yàn)室里的動(dòng)物獲得了人道的對(duì)待。最后,因?yàn)樽罱K決定因素是病人,醫(yī)療研究機(jī)構(gòu)不僅應(yīng)該積極爭(zhēng)取斯蒂芬·庫(kù)柏這樣的名人的支持——他對(duì)動(dòng)物實(shí)驗(yàn)的價(jià)值勇敢地進(jìn)行了肯定——而且應(yīng)該爭(zhēng)取所有接受治療的病人的支持。如果好人無(wú)所作為,一群不明真相的公眾真的有可能撲滅醫(yī)學(xué)進(jìn)步的寶貴火種。2003Text3Inrecentyears,railroadshavebeencombiningwitheachother,mergingintosupersystems,causingheightenedconcernsaboutmonopoly.Asrecentlyas1995,thetopfourrailroadsaccountedforunder70percentofthetotalton-milesmovedbyrails.Nextyear,afteraseriesofmergersiscompleted,justfourrailroadswillcontrolwellover90percentofallthefreightmovedbymajorrailcarriers.Supportersofthenewsupersystemsarguethatthesemergerswillallowforsubstantialcostreductionsandbettercoordinatedservice.Anythreatofmonopoly,theyargue,isremovedbyfiercecompetitionfromtrucks.Butmanyshipperscomplainthatforheavybulkcommoditiestravelinglongdistances,suchascoal,chemicals,andgrain,truckingistoocostlyandtherailroadsthereforehavethembythethroat.Thevastconsolidationwithintherailindustrymeansthatmostshippersareservedbyonlyonerailcompany.Railroadstypicallychargesuch"captive"shippers20to30percentmorethantheydowhenanotherrailroadiscompetingforthebusiness.Shipperswhofeeltheyarebeingoverchargedhavetherighttoappealtothefederalgovernment'sSurfaceTransportationBoardforraterelief,buttheprocessisexpensive,timeconsuming,andwillworkonlyintrulyextremecases.Railroadsjustifyratediscriminationagainstcaptiveshippersonthegroundsthatinthelongrunitreduceseveryone'scost.Ifrailroadschargedallcustomersthesameaveragerate,theyargue,shipperswhohavetheoptionofswitchingtotrucksorotherformsoftransportationwoulddoso,leavingremainingcustomerstoshoulderthecostofkeepinguptheline.It'stheorytowhichmanyeconomistssubscribe,butinpracticeitoftenleavesrailroadsinthepositionofdeterminingwhichcompanieswillflourishandwhichwillfail."Dowereallywantrailroadstobethearbitersofwhowinsandwholosesinthemarketplace?"asksMartinBercovici,aWashingtonlawyerwhofrequentlyrepresentsshipper.Manycaptiveshippersalsoworrytheywillsoonbehitwitharoundofhugerateincreases.Therailroadindustryasawhole,despiteitsbrighteningfortunes,stilldoesnotearnenoughtocoverthecostofthecapitalitmustinvesttokeepupwithitssurgingtraffic.Yetrailroadscontinuetoborrowbillionstoacquireoneanother,withWallStreetcheeringthemon.Considerthe$10.2billionbidbyNorfolkSouthernandCSXtoacquireConrailthisyear.Conrail'snetrailwayoperatingincomein1996wasjust$427million,lessthanhalfofthecarryingcostsofthetransaction.Who'sgoingtopayfortherestofthebill?Manycaptiveshippersfearthattheywill,asNorfolkSouthernandCSXincreasetheirgriponthemarket.近年來(lái),鐵路公司相互聯(lián)合,組成了超大型集團(tuán),引起人們對(duì)壟斷行為的極大關(guān)注。近至1995年,四家大型鐵路公司占有整個(gè)鐵路運(yùn)輸業(yè)務(wù)的約70%。到明年,一系列兼并活動(dòng)完成之后,四家鐵路公司將控制90%以上的鐵路運(yùn)輸業(yè)務(wù)。支持組建超大型鐵路集團(tuán)的人認(rèn)為,兼并將帶來(lái)成本的大幅降低,服務(wù)項(xiàng)目的更好協(xié)調(diào)。他們認(rèn)為,在公路運(yùn)輸?shù)募ち腋?jìng)爭(zhēng)面前,壟斷的威脅已經(jīng)不復(fù)存在。但許多客戶卻抱怨說(shuō),對(duì)于依賴長(zhǎng)途運(yùn)輸?shù)拇笞谏唐穪?lái)說(shuō),如煤炭、化學(xué)制品和糧食,由于公路運(yùn)輸花費(fèi)太大,這樣鐵路公司就會(huì)“掐他們的脖子”。鐵路運(yùn)輸業(yè)內(nèi)的大規(guī)模聯(lián)合意味著多數(shù)客戶將會(huì)依賴一家公司的服務(wù)。通常,鐵路公司對(duì)這些“被控”客戶的收費(fèi)要比有另一鐵路公司競(jìng)爭(zhēng)業(yè)務(wù)時(shí)多20%~30%。如果客戶感到他們被多收費(fèi),他們有權(quán)上訴到聯(lián)邦政府的“陸路運(yùn)輸局”以爭(zhēng)取價(jià)格下調(diào)。但這個(gè)過(guò)程耗財(cái)、耗時(shí),并且只有在真正極端特殊的情況下才有作用。鐵路公司對(duì)“被控”客戶進(jìn)行區(qū)別對(duì)待的依據(jù)是,從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看,這樣做會(huì)降低所有人的成本。他們認(rèn)為,如果鐵路公司向所有客戶收取同樣的普通價(jià)格的話,那么,可以使用公路運(yùn)輸或其他交通工具的客戶將會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)移,使剩下的客戶來(lái)承擔(dān)鐵路正常運(yùn)作的開(kāi)銷。這種理論得到了多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的認(rèn)同,但在實(shí)際操作中,它使鐵路公司獲得了一個(gè)決定誰(shuí)敗誰(shuí)榮的權(quán)利?!拔覀兪欠裾娴南胱岃F路公司成為在市場(chǎng)上決定誰(shuí)敗誰(shuí)榮的裁決者呢?”馬丁·貝科維奇問(wèn)道。他是一位常常代表鐵路客戶的華盛頓律師。許多“被控”客戶還擔(dān)心他們很快將遭遇一輪新的大幅漲價(jià)。從整體來(lái)說(shuō),雖然鐵路行業(yè)有耀眼的資產(chǎn),但它的收入仍然不足以支付為滿足不斷增長(zhǎng)的運(yùn)輸需要而進(jìn)行的固定資產(chǎn)投資。然而鐵路公司仍然繼續(xù)貸款數(shù)十億美元來(lái)進(jìn)行相互兼并,而華爾街也鼓勵(lì)它們這樣做。請(qǐng)想一想今年南諾弗克公司和CSX公司為兼并康雷爾公司所花的102億美元吧??道谞柟?996年鐵路運(yùn)營(yíng)純收入為4.27億美元,這還不足這宗交易運(yùn)作成本的一半。誰(shuí)來(lái)支付其余的費(fèi)用?許多“被控”客戶擔(dān)心他們會(huì),因?yàn)槟现Z弗克和CSX公司將增加對(duì)市場(chǎng)的控制。2003Text4ItissaidthatinEnglanddeathispressing,inCanadainevitableandinCaliforniaoptional.Smallwonder.Americans'lifeexpectancyhasnearlydoubledoverthepastcentury.Failinghipscanbereplaced,clinicaldepressioncontrolled,cataractsremovedina30-minutesurgicalprocedure.SuchadvancesoffertheagingpopulationaqualityoflifethatwasunimaginablewhenIenteredmedicine50yearsago.Butnotevenagreathealth-caresystemcancuredeath—andourfailuretoconfrontthatrealitynowthreatensthisgreatnessofours.Deathisnormal;wearegeneticallyprogrammedtodisintegrateandperish,evenunderidealconditions.Weallunderstandthatatsomelevel,yetasmedicalconsumerswetreatdeathasaproblemtobesolved.Shieldedbythird-partypayersfromthecostofourcare,wedemandeverythingthatcanpossiblybedoneforus,evenifit'suseless.Themostobviousexampleislate-stagecancercare.Physicians—frustratedbytheirinabilitytocurethediseaseandfearinglossofhopeinthepatient—toooftenofferaggressivetreatmentfarbeyondwhatisscientificallyjustified.In1950,theUSspent$12.7billiononhealthcare.In2002,thecostwillbe$1540billion.Anyonecanseethistrendisunsustainable.Yetfewseemwillingtotrytoreverseit.Somescholarsconcludethatagovernmentwithfiniteresourcesshouldsimplystoppayingformedicalcarethatsustainslifebeyondacertainage—say83orso.FormerColoradogovernorRichardLammhasbeenquotedassayingthattheoldandinfirm"haveadutytodieandgetoutoftheway",sothatyounger,healthierpeoplecanrealizetheirpotential.Iwouldnotgothatfar.Energeticpeoplenowroutinelyworkthroughtheir60sandbeyond,andremaindazzlinglyproductive.At78,ViacomchairmanSumnerRedstonejokinglyclaimstobe53.SupremeCourtJusticeSandraDayO'Connorisinher70s,andformersurgeongeneralC.EverettKoopchairsanInternetstart-upinhis80s.Theseleadersarelivingproofthatpreventionworksandthatwecanmanagethehealthproblemsthatcomenaturallywithage.Asamere68-year-old,Iwishtoageasproduc
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