租賃和盈利能力外文文獻翻譯

外文文獻翻譯原文及譯文標題：租賃和盈利能力：來自航空業(yè)的實證研究作者：西爾萬?博爾加德，里吉斯?哈克，凱瑟琳?維比斯期刊：《交通研究:政策和實踐》第97卷，頁碼：30-46年份：2017原文Leasingandprofitability:Empiricalevidencefromtheairlineindustry

SylvainBouqade,RegisHue,CatherineVibesAbstractInthispaper,weempiricallymeasuretheimpactofaircraftleasingchoicesonairlinesfinancialperformance.Weusepublicdataon73airlinesoperatingworldwideovertheperiod1996-2011.Inestimatingtheimpactofleasingonprofitability,wecontrolforpotentialendogeneitybyapplyingrobustinstrumentalvariablesestimation,whileintroducingasetofindividualandmacroeconomicfactors.Ourresultsarethreefold.First,weidentifyanon-monotonicandconcaveeffectofleasingonanairline5sprofitmargin,suggestingdecreasingmarginalreturnstoleasinginthissector.Thisisanoriginalfindingfortheindustry.Wealsoderiveaconfidenceintervalfortheoptimallevelofleasing.Second,weshowthattheimpactofleasingonanairline5soperatingprofitisstrongerforLowCostCarriersthanforFullCostCarriers:deviatingfromtheoptimallevelofleasingmightbemoreharmfulforaLCCthanforalegacycarrier.Finally,weanalyzehowanairline5sexperienceaffectstherelationshipbetweenleasingandprofitability.Keywords:Leasing,Performance,Profit,AirlineIndustry1.IntroductionAirlines5strategiesaremainlydrivenbydecisionsontheirnetwork,products,pricesandresources(specificallytheirfleet).Asaircraftrepresentalonglifetimeasset(25yearsormore)andrequireahighinvestment,decisionsonthefleetcompositionarethemostengagingones.Operatingleases,asopposedtofinancialleasesorownership,allowairlinestorecoversomeflexibilitywhenmakingthesefleetdecisions.Indeed,aleasedaircraftcanbeoperatedforaperiodlowerthanitsusefullife,withlimitedupfrontcapitalrequirement.Withoperatingleases,unlikefinancial(orcapital)leases,theownershiprisksandrewardsremainwiththelessorandtheassetsareoffthelessee'sbalancesheet.Typicaloperatingandfinancialleasesintheairlineindustryarecalled'dry'leasesbecausethelesseeonlyrentstheaircraft,asopposedto'wet'leaseswherealsothecrew,maintenanceandinsurancearerented.Thelessorcommunityhaslongarguedthatleasinghastangiblebenefitsforairlines.DickForsberg,fromtheIrishlessorAvolon,summarizesthekeystrengthsoflessorsinthreepoints:"Theyprovideliquiditytoweakercredits,makemetalavailablefromtheirorderbookswhenmanufacturershavesoldout,andgiveairlinesflexibilityintermsoftheirfinancingmix.”Thismayexplainwhyoperatingleasinghasbecomeanessentialmeansofaccessingcapacityfortheairlineindustry.AccordingtoBoeingandCentreforAviation,theproportionofleasedaircraftworldwidewentfrom0.5%in1970to40%in2015and50%ofAirbus52015deliveriesarefinancedbylessors.Inthispaper,weanalyzewhetheroperatingleasingwithitsabove-mentionedadvantagestrulyallowsairlinestoimprovetheirfinancialperformance.Forourempiricalanalysiswecollectdataincludingairlines5financialinformation(revenues,operatingprofits,rentalexpensesandfixedassets),aswellasadditionalfinancialandmacroeconomicdata.Oursamplecoversapproximately75%ofthetotalindustryrevenuesfortheperiod1996-2011.Wecharacterizetheimpactofleasing,amongothermacroeconomicsandbusinessfactors,ontheoperatingprofitmarginusingaTwoStageLeastSquares(2SLS)regressionwithinstrumentalvariables.Thisallowsustotakeintoaccounttheendogeneitythatcouldresultfromtheinfluenceofanairline5sprofitsonitsleasingdecisions,andsomepotentialunobservedheterogeneitybetweenairlines.Estimatinganairline5sfinancialperformancebasedonareducedformequationistheresultofacompromisebetweenresearchobjectives,dataavailabilityandestimationmethod.Itisworthnoticingthatourmainobjectiveistoidentifytheimpactofleasingonanairline5sprofitability,ratherthantopredictprofitability.Inthatrespect,webelievethatourapproachprovidesmeaningfulandrobustresults.Themajorfindingsofourpaperarethefollowing.First,weidentifyanon-monotonicandconcaverelationshipbetweenleasingandprofitmargin.Thisallowsustodeterminetheoptimallevelofleasingwhichmaximizestheoperatingmargin:53.4%,andthecorrespondingconfidenceinterval.Thisresultisinlinewiththeindustrystatisticspresentedinthefirstparagraph.Moreover,theconcaveeffectwefindindicatesthatairlinesfacedecreasingmarginalreturnstocapitalinvestmentinoperatingleaseontheirprofitmargin.Themarginalbenefitsofleasingarethushigherforcompanieswithlowerleasingratio.Thisisconsistentwiththeaccountingandfinanceliteraturethatcharacterizesdiminishingmarginalreturnstoinvestment.Intuitively,firmshaveincentivestofirstundertakethemostprofitableinvestmentopportunitiesbeforelessprofitableones.However,whilethisliteraturedocumentsanon-increasingrelationshipbetweenoperatingperformanceandcapitalinvestment(andconsequentlyoperatingleasing),weshowthattherelationshipbetweenthosevariablesisnon-monotonic.Anotherleasingadvantageisthatitmaylowerbusinessrisksbyprovidingoperatorswithadditionalflexibilityintheircapacitymanagement.Leasingallowsairlinestomodifytheirnetworkinrange(forinstance,anairlinepositionedonlyonshorthaulrouteswithnarrowbodyaircraftcouldleasewidebodyaircrafttooperatelong-haulroutes)oringauge(bychangingcapacityonindividualroutestofollowchangesindemand).Moregenerally,throughleasingairlinescouldreducecapacityindownturnsbynotrenewingleasesthatareexpiringandcouldaddcapacityinupturnsfasterinsteadoffacinglongerleadtimesfornewdeliveries.Moreover,leasingallowsairlinesthatsufferfromcapitalbudgetingorcreditrestrictionstoobtainbetterorfasteraccesstonewaircraft.Bjelicic(2012)showsthatthisisparticularlytrueforyoungercompaniesandLCCsastheycanthenaccessadditionalcapacityandacceleratetheirdevelopment.Leasingcanalsocontributetoreducecosts,inparticularthoseassociatedwithdisposingoftheasset.AsShleiferandVishny(1992,p.1355)noted:"Theinstitutionofairlineleasingseemstobedesignedpartlytoavoidfiresalesofassets:airlinescanstoptheirleasingcontractwhentheylosemoneyratherthandumpairplanesonthemarketwhichhasnodebtcapacity."ThedataForthispaper,webuildadatabasecontainingfinancialdatafor73internationalairlines.Oursamplecoversarepresentativeportionoftheglobalairlineindustry(approximately75%oftheindustry5stotalyearlyrevenuesovertheperiod)andincludeslistedandunlistedairlinesfromallregions,activeandinactivefirms(i.e.acquiredorbankrupt),andamixofthebusinessmodelsknownasFCCsandLCCs.FCCscorrespondtothetraditionalairlinebusinessmodel,frequentlycalledlegacyairlines,suchasAmericanAirlinesorAirFrance.Theyarenotnecessarily'historical'carriersassomeFCCsenteredthemarketinthe1990s\likeJetAirways.Thelowcostbusinessmodelforairlinesfocussesonstronglyreducingcostsinordertooffersignificantlylowerpricestocustomers.Forexample,LCCsoperateonpoint-to-pointroutesorofferlimitedpassengerservices.Theemergenceofthisnewtypeofairlineshasstronglyincreasedcompetitioninthepastdecades.However,thisbusinessmodeldoesnotseemtobeaguaranteeforsuccess,asagreatvarianceinperformancefortheseLCCsisobservedintheindustry.ThereisnostandarddefinitionforaLCCthough,asitincorporatesalargerangeofairlinesoperatingindifferentmarkets.Consequently,wefollowedtheclassificationprovidedbyICAO(2014)todistinguishFCCsfromLCCsinoursample.Ourdatabasecoversapproximatelytwoindustrycycles(16years,between1996and2011).Intotal,wecollecteddatafor868company-years.Ourdatabaseincludesthefollowingairlines.Wecollectfinancialitemsinlocalcurrencyfromfinancialdatabases(Bloomberg,InfinancialsandThomsonReutersEikon)aswellascompanies9annualreportsandDOTForm41.Weusetheexchangerateattheendoftheyear(December31)toconvertlocalcurrencyvaluesintoUnitedStatesDollars(USD).Arigorousanalysishasbeenperformedtoreconcilethediscrepanciesbetweenthedifferentsourcesandfindthemissingitems.ThereportedEBIThasbeenadjustedwhenitincludednon-operatingitems(e.g.oneoffitemssuchasgainsfromassetsales,financialitems...)toobtainaconsistentoperatingprofit.Moreover,whenoperatingleaseexpenseswerenotreportedexplicitlyintheincomestatement(orinthenotesdetailingtheoperatingexpenses)weusedtheamountcorrespondingtothefollowingyear'soperatingleasecommitments(availableinthenotes,aspartofthe"othercommitments,,section).Asrentalexpensesandminimumleasecommitmentsarenotoftenavailableinthefinancialdatabases,usingannualreportsisalmosttheonlyoptiontogatherthisinformation.MacroeconomicdataforeachofthecountriesinoursamplecomefromtheUSDepartmentofAgricultureResearchservice(GDPgrowth,population).ThecorporatemarginaltaxratesarefromtheKPMGcorporatetaxsurveysandfinallywecollectcompaniesfoundationdatesfromcompanies5websites.EmpiricalmodelInthissection,ourobjectiveistoidentifyandmeasuretheimpactofairlines5leasingstrategiesontheirprofitability,controllingforthemainfeaturesofworldwideairtransport,attheairlinelevel,fora15-yearperiod.Theabovementionedliteratureidentifiesdiminishingmarginalreturnstoinvestment.Asintheairlineindustry,asignificantshareoftheinvestmentsisfinancedthroughoperatingleases,wecanexpectdiminishingmarginalreturnstoleasinginthisindustry.Additionally,evenifthisliteratureshowsthiseffectisnon-increasing,becauseoftheexistingtrade-offbetweenthecostpremiumofleaseanditsflexibilitybenefits,weinvestigatewhethertheimpactofleasingonprofitabilityisnon-monotonicandconcave,withanoptimallevelforleasing.Thisdiscussionleadstothefollowinghypothesis:Hypothesis1Theimpactofleasingonprofitabilityisnon-monotonicandconcave.Moreover,thedescriptivestatisticshighlightdifferencesinleasingstrategiesamongbusinessmodelsandairlines5experience.Wearethusinterestedintestingwhetherthesedifferentstrategiesleadtodistinctimpactsofleasingonprofitability.Wethereforetestthetwofollowinghypotheses:Hypothesis2Theimpactofleasingonprofitabilityisdifferentdependingonanairline5sbusinessmodel.Hypothesis3Theimpactofleasingonprofitabilityisdifferentdependingonanairline5sexperience.Intheremainder,wefirstintroducetheregressionanalysisbasedonareducedformprofitmarginequationinwhichtheyearlyprofitmarginforeachairlineisrelatedtotheamountofleasingandasetofcontrolvariablesofinterest.Thenweproposealternativespecificationstotesttheaforementionedhypotheses.TheresultsThreemainresultsvalidatingourhypothesesemergeclearly.First,theregressionsweperformprovideevidenceofaglobalsignificanteffectofleasingonairlinesprofitmargins,showingthattheindustryischaracterizedbydiminishingmarginalreturnstoleasingexpenses.Weareabletoestimateaconfidenceintervalfortheaverageamountofleasingmaximizingprofit.Second,ourestimationsshowthattheeffectofleasingischaracterizedbydifferentmagnitudesdependingonthebusinessmodelchosenbyanairline,allelsebeingequal.Morespecifically,LCCsseemtobenefitmorefromleasingthanFCCs.However,diminishingmarginalreturnstoleasingareshowntobestrongerfortheLCCs.Third,wefindthattheimpactofleasingonanairline5sprofitabilitydependsonitsoperationalexperience.Thefocusofthefirstregressionistheimpactofleasingonprofitability.TheparametersforLeaseandLease2aresignificant,implyingthatleasingisnotonlyasolutiontoaccessadditionalaircraftcapacity,butalsoaprofit-maximizingvariable.Thequadraticspecificationoftherelationshipbetweenthesevariablesandthesignsoftheestimatedparametersallowustoconcludethattheimpactofleasingonprofitmarginisnon-monotonicandconcave.Thisstronglysupportsthepresenceofdiminishingmarginalreturnstoleasing.Airlineswithalowerleasingratioshouldthereforehavemoreincentivestolease.Indeed,leasingmayleadtoincreasedmargins.Thissuggeststhattherentedcapacityisoperatedprofitably,despiteitshighercost,andthereforethatthedecisiontorentadditionalaircraftiseconomicallymotivated.Intuitively,leasingprovidesflexibilitybyallowingairlinestoaddandremovecapacitywhenneeded(e.g.bynotrenewingaleaseagreement,thelesseehastheoptiontoreduceitscapacitywithoutincurringcostslinkedtothedisposalofitsowncapacity).Thismayalsoexplainwhytheleasingindustryhasdevelopedtremendouslyinthelasttwentyyears.However,increasingtheproportionofleasedassetsbecomesmarginallylessandlessprofitable,uptothepointwhereincreasingtheleasingratiomayevenreducetheoperatingmargin.Thisresultisconsistentwithpreviousstudies25whichalsocharacterizeadiminishingmarginalreturntotheinvestedcapital(andthereforeleasing)duetotheincentivesforcompaniestoinvestasapriorityinthemostprofitableopportunities.However,whilethesestudieshavedocumentedthiseffectwasnon-increasing,weshowthatitisnon-monotonicintheairlineindustry.Intuitively,LCCsmaybemorevulnerabletomacroeconomicshocksduetotheirbusinessmodel.Moreover,duetothesedifferencesincoststructuresbetweenLCCsandFCCs,theaircraftexpensesrepresentahigherproportionoftheircostbaseandthereforehaveahigherrelativeimpactontheirprofitmargin.TheleasingbenefitsofflexibilityarethenmoredecisiveforthemthanforFCCs.OurmodelpredictsthatthedifferenceintheimpactofleasingbetweenLCCsandFCCsisstrongerwhentheybothchoosetheiroptimallevelofleasing.BehavingoptimallyisrelativelymoreprofitableforLCCs.WealsofindthatthecurveforFCCsisflatter:FCCsarelesssensitivetochangesinthelevelofleasing.Diminishingmarginalreturnstoleasingarelesspronouncedforthem.OurresultsimplythestrategicstakesofleasingdecisionsarehigherforLCCs,intermsoffinancialperformance.Theyshouldthereforemakethosedecisionsverycarefully.譯文租賃和盈利能力：來自航空業(yè)的實證研究西爾萬?博爾加德，里吉斯?哈克，凱瑟琳?維比斯摘要本文通過實證研究來檢驗航空租賃方式對航空公司財務績效的影響。我們使用1996-2011年期間在全球運營的73家航空公司的數(shù)據(jù)。在估計租賃對盈利能力的影響時，我們通過應用強大的工具變量估計來控制潛在的內生性，同時引入一組個人和宏觀經濟因素。首先，我們確定了租賃對航空公司利潤率的非單調和凹凸效應，研究表明這一部門的租賃邊際收益在逐步下降，這是這個行業(yè)的最初發(fā)現(xiàn)。我們也推導出最佳租賃水平的置信區(qū)間。其次，我們的研究表明，租賃對航空公司營業(yè)利潤的影響對于廉價航空公司比對高成本航空公司更為強烈：偏離最佳租賃水平可能對廉價航空造成的損害比對傳統(tǒng)航空公司的影響更大。最后，我們分析了航空公司的運營經驗如何影響租賃和盈利之間的關系。關鍵詞：租賃，業(yè)績，利潤，航空業(yè)1.引言航空公司的戰(zhàn)略主要由航線網(wǎng)絡，產品，價格和資源（特別是其機隊）的所決定的。由于飛機是一種長壽命的資產（25年或更長時間），并且需要高額投資，因此機隊編組是很重要的。經營租賃，而不是融資租賃或所有權，使航空公司在做出這些機隊決策時可以有一些靈活性。實際上，租用的飛機可以在低于其使用壽命的時間內運行,而且前期資本要求有限。由于經營租賃與財務（或資本）租賃不同，所有權風險和回報仍與出租人保持一致，資產不在承租人的資產負債表內。航空業(yè)的典型經營和融資租賃被稱為“干租賃”，因為承租人只租用飛機，而不是租用船員，維修和保險的“租賃”租賃。出租人社區(qū)長期以來一直認為租賃對航空公司具有實際的益處。來自愛爾蘭出租人Avolon的DickForsberg總結出租人的主要優(yōu)勢有三點:''他們提供流動資金給較弱的信用，在制造商售完時從訂單中提供金屬，并為航空公司在融資方面提供靈活性“這也許可以解釋為什么經營租賃已經成為獲得航空業(yè)能力的重要手段。根據(jù)波音和航空中心的統(tǒng)計，全球租賃飛機的比例從1970年的0.5%上升到2015年的40%,空客2015年交付的50%由出租人提供資金。在本文中，我們分析具有上述優(yōu)勢的經營租賃能否真正讓航空公司提高財務績效。對于我們的實證分析，我們收集的數(shù)據(jù)包括航空公司的財務信息（收入，營業(yè)利潤，租賃費用和固定資產）以及額外的財務和宏觀經濟數(shù)據(jù)。我們的樣本涵蓋了1996-2011年期間約75%的行業(yè)總收入。我們使用工具變量的兩階段最小二乘（2SLS）回歸來描述租賃的影響以及其他宏觀經濟學和商業(yè)因素對經營利潤率的影響。這使得我們可以考慮航空公司的利潤對其租賃決策的影響可能產生的內生性，以及航空公司之間潛在的不可觀察的異質性?；诤喕问椒匠坦浪愫娇展镜呢攧湛冃茄芯磕繕?，數(shù)據(jù)可用性和估算方法之間折衷的結果。值得注意的是，我們的主要目標是確定租賃對航空公司盈利能力的影響，而不是預測盈利能力。在這方面，我們相信我們的方法提供了有意義的和有力的結果。我們的研究主要發(fā)現(xiàn)如下。首先，我們確定租賃和利潤率之間的非單調和凹陷的關系。這使我們能夠確定最佳租賃水平，使運營利潤最大化：53.4%,以及相應的置信區(qū)間。這個結果與第一段中的行業(yè)統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)一致。此外，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)的凹凸效應表明，航空公司在利潤率上面臨經營租賃的資本投資邊際收益遞減。租賃比率較低的公司的租賃邊際收益較高。這與會計和財務文獻中描述投資邊際收益遞減的特征是一致的。直觀地說，企業(yè)有動機首先在盈利能力較差的投資機會之前承擔最有利可圖的投資機會。然而，盡管這些文獻記載了經營業(yè)績和資本投資之間的不增加的關系（并因此表明經營租賃），但是這些變量之間的關系是非單調的。另一個租賃優(yōu)勢是可以通過為運營商在容量管理方面提供額外的靈活性來降低業(yè)務風險。通過租賃，航空公司可以修改其航線范圍（例如，一家只有短途航線的航空公司才可以租用寬體飛機來經營長途航線），或者通過改變個人航線的容量來滿足需求變化）。更一般地說，通過租賃航空公司可以減少經濟衰退的能力，不會延長即將到期的租賃，并且可以更快地增加承租能力，而不是面臨新的交付時間。此外，租賃可以讓遭受資本預算或信貸限制的航空公司獲得更好或更快的新飛機。Bjelicic（2012）表明，年輕公司和低成本航空公司尤其如此，因為他們可以獲得額外的運力并加速其發(fā)展。租賃還可以有助于降低成本，特別是與處置資產相關的成本。正如Shleifer和Vishny（1992,po1355）所指出的那樣：航空公司租賃的制度似乎是為了避免出售資產而設計的：航空公司可以在虧損的時候停止租賃合同，而不是在市場上轉儲飛機沒有債務能力。2數(shù)據(jù)對于本文，我們建立了一個包含73家國際航空公司財務數(shù)據(jù)的數(shù)據(jù)庫。我們的樣本涵蓋了全球航空業(yè)的代表性部分（約占整個行業(yè)年度總收入的75%）,包括來自所有地區(qū)的上市和非上市航空公司，現(xiàn)役和非現(xiàn)役公司（即收購或破產），以及被稱為FCC和LCC的商業(yè)模式。FCC與傳統(tǒng)的航空公司業(yè)務模式相對應，通常稱為傳統(tǒng)航空公司，如美國航空公司或法國航空公司。就像捷達航空公司（JetAirways）那樣，一些FCC在20世紀90年代進入市場，它們并不一定是“歷史”的運營商。航空公司的低成本商業(yè)模式著重強調降低成本，以便為客戶提供更低的價格。例如，低成本航空公司運營點對點航線或提供有限的乘客服務。這種新型航空公司的出現(xiàn)，在過去幾十年里激烈地增加了競爭。然而，這個商業(yè)模式似乎并不能保證成功，因為在這個行業(yè)里，這些低成本航空公司的業(yè)績差異很大。雖然LCC沒有標準的定義，因為它包含了大量在不同市場運營的航空公司。因此，我們按照國際民航組織（2014年）提供的分類來區(qū)分我們樣本中的FCC和LCC。我們的數(shù)據(jù)庫涵蓋了大約兩個行業(yè)周期（16年，在1996年至