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“FromtheMinerstoMajor:
ALeagueofChangeinRecentBritishPolitics.”JeremyLewisPhD,HuntingdonCollege,
ForpresentationsatBuenaVistaUniversity,Iowa,11-12Sep.2005
See58同城招聘http://12JohnMajorstereotypedasthegreymanoftheTorypartyThewhizkidwhosefastriseupthegreasypoleculminatedinaslipperyslidedownwardseconomicstagflationandlowapprovalratingsunabletopreventbickering,scandalandpolicydriftechoesofChurchill’s“modest”depictionofAtlee[cartoon]MajorasMr.Underpants,thespindlysuperhero.3PMasMr.Underpants4until,thatis,EdwinaCurrie’srevelationsin2002.5NowSirJohnMajorseenasthecreatorofNorthernIrelandpeaceagreementthewarriorofthe1991GulfWartheinternationalstatesmanandpeacenegotiatorthelastsuccessfulConservativepartyleaderreturnedapartytothemoderate“insideright”electorate
67MajorinthecontextofBritishPolitics
PMQTshowsintegrationoflegislatureandexecutiveCommonscultureofOxfordUniondebatingPMconfrontedbyMPsarticulateministers,wellinformed&gladiatorialpatronagepoweroftheprimeministercabinetandshadowcabinet:loyalOppositionfrontbench(ministers)versusbackbench(MPs)Multi-partysystemwithcross-benchers:FirstPastthePostsystemfavorsCon&Lab,disfavorsLibDems
8UncodifiedConstitutiondoctrineofparliamentarysovereigntynosupremecourt,noconstitutionalreviewflexibletermsofofficeandvotesofnoconfidencecabinet’scollectiveresponsibility:“governmentare”ministerialresponsibility&resignationriseofPMandstaff,publicrelationsembourgeoisement:declineofclass-basedpolitics9postwarwelfarestateconsensus:equalityoverindividualismfullemploymentoverproductivity“fairsharesforall”“nojumpingthequeue”“homesfitforheroes”“Butskellism”(Butler&Gaitskell)“corporatism”(tripartiteeconomicdiscussions)101960sand1970s,consensusdeclinedLabour&Conservativegovernmentseconomicdeteriorationwintersofdiscontent1974and1979“bloody-minded”unions&“outoftouch”managementMinersbroughtdownHeathTorygovernment,1974
1112Thatcherismrevolution:taxcuts:largersharesforsomepropertyholdingdemocracy:sharesforallmarketforcesinallinstitutions:scrambletoheadthequeue
Privatizationof11%ofeconomyBrokeminer’sunion1984Over20%shareholdersCouncilhousesalesSelf-budgetinguniversitiesandhospitals13PublicOpinion:
nowmorepolarizedmostlyfavorspostwarconsensus(I.Crewe)by1990,only17%ofToryMPsactuallyThatcherite(P.Norton)
1415Understatedleadersandwichedbetweentwoprimadonnas
notanOxfordUniondebaterCitizen’sCharteraminorreformThatcher’sbudgetcuts,privatization,supplysiderevolutionBlair’sThirdWayreforms
16JohnRoyMajor’searlylife,1943-
untypicalBritishleadername“Roy”notevenonbirthcertificatesonoftravelingcircusperformer,TomMajor-BallLatediscoveryofhalf-siblingsimpoverishedbyunemploymentrejectedasbusconductormadegardengnomeswithbrotherTerrynotuppermiddleclass--freeschooluniformnotEton–justgrammarschoolnotOxford–notevenuniversity(J.Callaghan)
17EarlyCareer:Banker1965-1979:verysuccessfulMarriedNorma1970,twochildren18Major’sclimbupthegreasypole
(Disraeli)Spring1991,mostpopularPMin30yearsPrimeMinister1990-97LeaderoftheConservativeParty1990-97OverMichael(“Tarzan”)HeseltineandDouglasHurd(diplomatic)ChancelloroftheExchequer1989-90firstTVbudgetspeech,TESSAsUKjoinedERM,1990ForeignSecretary1989ChiefSecretarytotheTreasury1987-89MinisterofStateforSocialSecurity1986Under-SecforSocialSecurity(welfare&OAPs)1985TreasuryWhip1984AssistantWhip1983ParliamentaryPrivateSec.1981MPforHuntingdon(1976)1979,1983,1992,1997.Lambethboroughcouncil1968-71,createdhousingSoapboxspeechesinLambeth,1964-68.
1920ConservativepartyfactionsLeadershipelectionspost1965amongMPs1922Committee(revoltsinprivate)Thatcheritefree-marketinsurgents(“dries”)17%onlyaristocraticHighToriesdeclining(tradcons)“Hang‘emandflog‘em”brigadeinshiresOne-Nationmoderateslargergroup(“wets”)droppingleadersafterlostelectionsallincludedincabinetsexcept1984-87
2122MajorasConservativePrimeMinister,1990-97
Moreinclusive,genteelstyleModeratesbacktocabinetOnly47onaccessionEarlysuccesswithGulfwar,1991RecordpopularityAbolishedpolltaxwhichhadbroughtdownThatcher2324Unpromisingre-electionprospects
longestrecessionsince1930sconsumerunconfidence1990,ToriesdroopedTories30%1990,Lab53%voterspolarizedbyMrs.ThatcherShortbouncesfromMajor’saccessionandGulfWar
25EconomicpolicyU-turnMajoreasedinterestratesOct1990LamontincreasedPSBR(unThatcherite)
26Won1992electionbyupset
PollspredictedhungParliamentNeilKinnock’swelshoratoryLabour’sslickAmerican-stylecampaigningMajor’sLambethsoap-boxspeechifyingMajor’smaninthestreetstyle.27Won1992electionbyupsetvoterslied–oropinionpollsskewed?LatedecidersTory“besttocontroleconomy”swingtoToryToriesreturnedwithsmallmajorityLostonly41seats,retained43%ofvote28Economicdifficulties
Stagflation1992-93BlackWednesday,16Sep.1992,ERMwithdrawal
29Statesmanship
Europeanengagement:EU’sMaastrichtTreaty1992,despiteTory“bastard”euroscepticrebels(Lilley,Portillo&Howard)LabourtacticalforcedvotedefeatonEUSocialChapterMajorforcedvoteofnoconfidence,wonby40OptedoutofEurocurrency,protectedBritisheconomy3031NorthernIrelandIrishpeacetalksearnedCompanionofHonourIRAceasefire1994despitemortarbombingofNo.10deniednegotiatingsecretlywithIRA1993“itwouldturnmystomach”tillexposedAngeredbyClinton’sreceptionofGerryAdams
3233Domesticpolicyissues
“BacktoBasics”campaign,1993intended:economy,education,policinginferredbymedia:tradvaluesscandals,sleazeandbackbiting(mistresses,Corp.directorships,cashforquestions)Economicrecessionandstagflation1992Changedpolicy5successiveyearsofrecovery:growth,reducinginflationandunemploymentEconomicrecoveryby1997
3435LeadershipofpartyconstantbackbitingfromThatcherites&eurosceptics1995Majorresigned(butnotPMposition)(afirst)wonleadership(218MPs)overeuroscepticRedwood(89)Dec.1996ConslostmajorityinCommonseconomyimproving,but5yearlimitonterm36
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