課件第9講全球經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡

12Inmyview…itisimpossibletounderstandthiscrisiswithoutreferencetotheglobalimbalancesintradeandcapitalflowsthatbeganinthelatterhalfofthe1990s.--BenS.3McKinnonandSchnabl,2006).錯(cuò)在方(BenS.Bernanke&Timothy(BarryEichengreenandGiselaRua,4 次的原因在于全球失衡–主要是經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目逆差和中國巨大的順--TheEconomist,“Whenaflowesaflood,”Jan22,2009, 56(Post-)BretonWoods

––--–UN,7?之謎：2005-當(dāng)時(shí)美聯(lián)儲已連續(xù)8次提高基金基準(zhǔn)利–當(dāng)時(shí)的解釋8 leco(beforethe East

dstructuralimbalances:trade,finance,growth9e.g.:2005年的貿(mào)易逆差規(guī)模相當(dāng)于全球其 平，靠廉價(jià)融資獲取是維持經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)DebtHeldbytheDebtHeldbythe ernmentalTotalPublicDebtFigure1：PublicDebtsoftheUnitedU.S.DepartmentoftheTreasury,Bureauofthebilliondollars012/30/1994012/29/199512/31/199609/30/199709/30/199809/30/199909/29/200009/28/200109/30/200209/30/200309/30/200409/30/200509/29/200601/02/200709/28/200701/02/200809/30/200801/02/200909/30/200901/04/201008/31/2010①以為中心的國際貨幣體制為的負(fù)債②伴隨著逆差，私人儲蓄率不斷下③金融自由化與金新步伐加快，實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)④與不斷加快的金 ⑤貨幣管理局的低利率政 發(fā)展中國家平均12(Lall&Albaladejo圖3Billion

1978198019781980198519901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009

36920003692000200120022003200420052006200720082009Source:NationalBureauofStatisticsof,StatisticalYearbook圖4GDP70%60%50%40%

Trade/GDPExport/GDPImport/GDP

65.2%35.9%

44.2%30%20%

29.3%

24.1%20.2%10%Source:NationalBureauofStatisticsIn2005,EU,Japan&US:TradeinGDP:25-30%(WorldDevelopmentIndicator,Bythemidofthe2000s,hasethemostopenecoamongthecomparablelargeEMEs. Figure 'spercentageinthe9876%543210 ForeignTrade source:NationalBureauofStatistics?’stradedeficitswithSKoreain2012:&80.9billion$(Customs,KoreanCustoms-53.5)?’stradedeficitswithJapanin2011&2012:46.3&26.2$(attheCenterofGlobal&RegionalProductionNetworksCapital,technology,equipment,high-techparts&componentsCapital,technology,equipment,high-techparts&componentsPrimarycommodities&naturalresources&commercial&legal:Manufacturing,processing,:Manufacturing,processing,turning“MadeinAsia”into“Made”And,to –1990：FIEs占出口的15%200357(HsiaoandHsiao, 商直接投資的貿(mào)易順差凈值國對美順差總額的80%以上（，2012）。占出口的50%和進(jìn)口的60%;外商投資企業(yè)GDP的貢獻(xiàn)率每年超過20%(WhallyandXin,2006)的經(jīng)典例子(Xing?（Schott,2008)發(fā)現(xiàn)，中國出口產(chǎn)品的結(jié)構(gòu)和和高4國際金融標(biāo)志著的負(fù)債消費(fèi)模式已，更重要的是以負(fù)債消費(fèi)為基礎(chǔ) “MyDollar,Your“Triffin’s asymmetrybetweentheroleofthedollarandtheabsenceofacorrespondingoversight“Triffin’sabusethelackseffectiveGlobalEconomicRebalancing(AftertheTrilaleco(afterthe

East

dUS:manufacturingE.Asia:export

,