歐盟委員會：2022年Q4歐洲天然氣市場報告

Quarterly

report

OnEuropean

gasmarkets

Withfocusonpricedevelopmentsin2022

MarketObservatoryforEnergy

DGEnergy

Volume15

(issue4,coveringfourthquarterof2022)

Energy

1

DISCLAIMER:ThisreportpreparedbytheMarketObservatoryforEnergyoftheEuropeanCommissionaimsatenhancingpublic

accesstoinformationaboutpricesofgasintheMembersStatesoftheEuropeanUnion.Ourgoalistokeepthisinformationtimelyandaccurate.Iferrorsarebroughttoourattention,wewilltrytocorrectthem.However,theCommissionacceptsnoresponsibilityorliabilitywhatsoeverwithregardtotheinformationcontainedinthispublication.

Copyrightnotice:Reproductionisauthorisedprovidedthesourceisacknowledged.

?EuropeanCommission,2023

Directorate-GeneralforEnergy,UnitA.4,ChiefEconomist-MarketObservatoryforEnergy,2023

Commissioneuropéenne,B-1049Bruxelles/EuropeseCommissie,B-1049Brussel–Belgium

E-mail:ENER-MARKET-OBSERVATORY-QUARTERLY-REPORTS@ec.europa.eu

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CONTENT

CONTENT

2

HIGHLIGHTSOFTHEREPORT

3

1.Gasmarketfundamentals

4

1.1Consumption

4

1.2Production

6

1.3Imports

7

1.3.1.PipelineimportsfromRussia

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1.3.2.LNGimports

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1.4Policydevelopmentsandgasinfrastructure

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1.5Storage

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2.Wholesalegasmarkets

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2.1EUenergycommoditymarkets

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2.2LNGandinternationalgasmarkets

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2.3Europeangasmarkets

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2.3.2WholesalepricedevelopmentsintheEU

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2.3.4.GastradeontheEUhubs

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3.RetailgasmarketsintheEUandoutsideEurope

31

3.1RecentdevelopmentsonEUretailgasmarkets

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4.Appendix–chartsprovidingfurtherdetailsonmarketdevelopments

33

3

HIGHLIGHTSOFTHEREPORT

AttheendofOctoberandearlyNovembertheTTFspotpricetemporarilyfellto30€/MWh,asanumberofLNGcargoescouldnot

beunloadedatnorth-westEuropeanhubs,owingtohighstoragefullnessandgasgridcongestionintheregion.Itrebounded,peakedatapprox.150€/MWhinearlyDecemberandthenconsiderablydecreased,droppingtoapprox.70€/MWhattheendofDecember,andcontinuedonadownwardtrenduntilmidMay2023.

Throughout2022theEuropeanCommissionandMemberStatesputtogetheracomprehensivesetofinitiativestofightthe

energycrisis.Thiseffortcontinuedinthelastquarterof2022withtheadoptionofseveraladditionalmeasures,includingenhancingsolidaritythroughbettercoordinationofgaspurchases,developingreliablepricebenchmarksforincreasedpricetransparency,establishingamarketcorrectionmechanismtoaddressepisodesofexcessivelyhighprices,creatingaframeworktoacceleratethedeploymentofrenewableenergy,therebyspeedingupsubstitutionofgasinelectricityproductionandheating.Thisframeworkhasbeensupportiveoftheeffortstodiversifysupply.Theexpansionofregasificationcapacity,reductionofdemandandstoragefilledaheadofthewinterseasonallresultedinatangibleimprovementofthemarketsituationinthefourthquarterof2022(andevenmoreevidently,inthefirstquarterof2023).

AfterthecutofNordStreamsupplyoccurredinthethirdquarter,Russianpipelinegasimportsstabilisedaround3to4bcm

permonth,downfrom11-12bcmpermonthinQ42021.Russianpipelinegasimportsweredowntoapprox.15%inQ42022,morethan25percentagepointslessthanthesamequarterin2021.RussianpipelinegashasbeenreplacedmostlybyLNGimport(+13bcm,+70%yearonyear)aswellasadditionalpipelineimportsmainlyfromNorwayandtheUK.

ThepricepremiumcomparedtotheAsianmarketsthatmaterialisedinsummer2022hasprogressivelydecreasedinQ4and

fallentoapprox.10€/MWhinlateDecember,afterreachinglevelsabove100€/MWhatthepeakofthecrisisinAugust.AbundanceofLNGinsouth-westernEuropeandtheeaseofgridcongestioninnorth-westernEuroperesultedinamovetowardsa‘normalisation’ofthediscountinLNGimportpricestotheTTFandothercontinentalbenchmarks.InQ42022,theUnitedStateswasthelargestLNGsuppliertotheEU,ensuring13.2bcm(36%ofthetotalEULNGimports).InQ42022,theEUremainedthebiggestLNGimporterintheworld,aheadofJapanandChina.

AveragefillingratesinEuropeinthefourthquarterstoodat91%,ayear-on-yearincreaseof29%.Storageinjectionswere

stillstrong.FasterstoragereplenishmentwasfacilitatedbysignificantlyhigherLNGinflowsinthefourthquarter,surpassingby13%analreadyrecordhighimportinthethirdquarterandaidedbyadditionalpipelinesupplypartiallyoffsettingtherapidlyfallingpipelinegasimportsfromRussia,combinedwithsignificantlylowergasconsumption.Thepeakwasreachedon13November(95.6%),almostamonthlaterthanusual,owingtomildweatherandthedelayedstartoftheheatingseason.

EUgasconsumptioninQ42022fellby21%,(-25bcm)year-on-year,amountingto95.4bcm.Gasuseinpowergeneration

remainedstrong(133TWh)andincreasedslightly,by1.7%.

GastradedvolumesontheEuropeanhubsfellby25%inQ42022year-on-year,followingthedownwardtrendalready

observedinpreviousquarters.Theshareofexchange-executedcontractsincreasedslightlycomparedtoQ32022(67%vs63%)butitwasinlinewiththeshareinQ42021.

RetailgaspricesforhouseholdcustomersinmanyEUcapitalcitiessignificantlydecreasedthroughoutthe4Q2022

forthefirsttimesincethebeginningofthecrisis.Thatsaid,retailpricesstillroseinothercapitalsandtheaverageroseinthefourthquarteratsignificantlylowerrate(3%)thanthepreviousquarter(whenitrose23%).Theyear-on-yearincreasewas71%,whileitwas108%inQ3.Theshareofenergycomponentinthepricecontinuedtoincreaseandreached69%inQ4,whileitwas53%ayearearlier,asMemberStatesstillkeptreducedtaxesandlevies.

[Methodologicalnote:theenergycrisishasevidencedtheimportanceofcollectinginformationonenergymarketsaccuratelyandtimely.Thisisfundamentaltoinformthepolicymakingprocessandaddresseffectivelyissuesarisinginthemarkets.Againstthisbackground,theCommissioniscurrentlycarryingoutacomprehensiveandsystematicreviewofallthedatasourcesrelatedtogasmarkets.Thescopeofthereviewistoensureamoreharmonisedandconsistenttreatmentofdifferentdatasources.Inthenextquarterlyreport,oncethereviewhasbeencompleted,theCommissionwillpresentthe2022aggregatedfiguresforallthekeyindicators.]

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1.Gasmarketfundamentals

1.1Consumption

EUgasconsumption1inthefourthquarterof2022felldrasticallyfurther,by21,4%(-25bcm)inyear-on-yearcomparison,after

decreasingby7,9%inQ32022andby16.5%inQ22022.Inabsolutenumbers,thequarterlygasconsumptioninQ42022amountedtoanestimated95,4bcm,downfrom121,4bcminQ42021,butupfromtheconsumptionoftheprevioussummer-quarter,Q32022(59,5bcm),aseasonallylowheatingseason.Gasuseinpowergenerationremainedstrong(133,49TWh)andincreasedslightly,by1.7%(+2.18TWh)fromanalreadystrongQ3(131,31TWh)andfollowinghistoricaltrendsingasconsumptionduringwintermonths.

Figure1-EUgasconsumption

TWh

bcm

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525

50

450

40

375

30

300

225

20

150

10

75

0

0

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

2016-2020range20212022

Source:Eurostat,2022fromdataseriesnrg_103m.Inthenexteditionofthisreportnumbersmightchangeretrospectively.Figure2-Year-on-yearchangeinEUgasconsumptionineachquarter(%)

%

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2019

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2020

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2021

Q1Q2Q3Q4

2022

Source:Eurostat,2022fromdataseriesnrg_103m.Inthenexteditionofthisreportnumbersmightchangeretrospectively

1EUaggregates,unlessotherwiseindicated,refertoEU-27,andinordertoensurecomparabilityovertime,valuesofearlierperiodsandyear-on-yearcomparisonindicesalsorefertoEUaggregateswithouttheUnitedKingdom.Therefore,incomparisontoearliereditions,totalEUaggregatenumbersmightdifferinthecurrentreport.

5

Inthefourthquarterof2022,inallEUMemberStatesbutMalta(+25%,+0.02bcm)2gasconsumptionfell.Intheorderof

percentagechanges,gasconsumptionfellbythemostinFinland(-53.7%,-0.24bcm),Sweden(-43,2%,-0.19bcm),Estonia(-39.7%,-0.09bcm),Greece(34.1%,1.06bcmandHungary(-29,6%,-2,64bcm).Inabsolutterms,thebiggestconsumptionreductionwasregisteredinGermany(-6.45bcm,22.6%),Italy(-5.72bcm,25%),France(-2,43bcm,18,4%),Spain(-2.12bcm,22.1%)andtheNetherlands(-2.02bcm,18.3%).InQ42022,Germanyconsumedthehighestamountofgas(22.08bcm),followedbyItaly(17.19bcm),France(10.76bcm),theNetherlands(8.99bcm),andSpain(7.46bcm).

Figure3-Year-on-yearchangeingasconsumptioninthefourthquarterof2022

bcm

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

-25

-30

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

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-50%

-60%

DE

IT

FR

NL

ES

PL

BE

RO

HU

AT

CZ

SK

IE

PT

GR

HR

DK

BG

LT

LV

FI

SI

SE

LU

MT

EE

CY

EU-27

GasconsumptionYear-on-yearchangeinconsumption(rhs)

Source:Eurostat,2022fromdataseriesnrg_103m.Inthenexteditionofthisreportnumbersmightchangeretrospectively

Year-on-yeargas-firedgenerationfellby11%inQ42022duetothehighprices.However,aftersupportinggas-to-coalswitchfor

mostof2022,thereductionofgaspricesinOctoberandattheendofQ42022,hasclosedthegapbetweencoal-andgas-firedgeneration.Thefurtherdeclineingasprices,combinedwithhighcarbonpricesinQ12023,hassupportedgas-firedgenerationvis-à-viscoal-firedpowerplants.Asaresultgas-firedpowergenerationroseby2%(+2TWh)comparedtoQ32022.

2ThereisnodataforCyprus.

6

Figure4-Gas-firedpowergenerationintheEU

Source:BasedondatafromtheENTSO-ETransparencyPlatformandnationaldatasources,2022.

1.2Production

DespitesensibleeffortsinMemberStatestotapontheirdomesticresources,productionhasrisenonlyslightlycomparedtothe

previousquarter(+3.6%).Inthefourthquarterof2022,EUnaturalgasproductionreached10.5bcm,fallingyear-on-yearagain,by4%,(by0.5bcm),followingaconstanttrendofdeclineinallpreviousyearsbackto2016andbeyond.InallthreemonthsofQ4,theactualquarterlyproductionremainedwellbelowboththefive-yearrangeof2016-2020and2021figures.

Figure5–GasproductionintheEU

Source:Eurostat,dataasof15March2023fromdataseriesnrg_103m.Inthenexteditionofthisreportnumbersmightchangeretrospectively.

7

InthebiggestgasproducerNetherlands,theproductionremainedat4.2bcminthefourthquarter,thesameamountasinthe

thirdquarter,butitfeltsignificantly,by12%(-0.6bcm)year-on-year.InRomania,thesecondbiggestgasproducerintheEU,productionstabilisedat0.8bcmpermonth(2.4bcminQ4overall),aslightincreaseof3.7%fromthethirdquarter.InPoland,thethirdlargestdomesticproducer,productionstabilisedat0.5bcmandreachedatotalof1.5bcm,13%higherthaninthepreviousquarter(1.3bcm).Germanyslippedtotheforthplacewithamonthlyproductionof0.4bcmthatremainedconstantthrought2022and2021.Italycamefifthwith0.9bcm,increasingitsproductionby18.2%fromthepreviousquarter.Asimilar18%increasehasbeenachievedinDenmarkfromthepreviousquarteramountingtoanoverall0.43bcm.Hungaryincreaseditsdomesticproductionby3.6%adding0.4bcmgasinthethreelastmonthsoftheyear,whileIrelandslightlyreduceditsproductionby3.7%with0.34bcmgasproducedinthefourthquarterof2022.

EvenamidextremehighwholesalegaspricesattheEuropeanhubs,domesticproductioninmostoftheEuropeancountriescould

notincreasesignificantly,suggestingthattherearetechnicalandsocietal/environmentalobstacles(e.g.depletedgasfields,significantresistancefromthesocietyforfurthergasproductionowingtodamagesinsomecountries,etc.)playmoreimportantrolethaneconomicprofitability,whichresultinpermanentlydwindlingproductionintheEU.Relativelylongleadtimetomobiliseinvestmentanddevelopeconomicallyviableandsocially/environmentallyacceptableprojectsinthedenselypopulatedEuropean

territorymayalsohavecontributedtotheoverallinsignificantincreaseindomesticgasproduction.

1.3Imports3

AccordingtoEurostat4,netgasimportsintheEUdecreasedby15,4%(14.8bcm)inthefourthquarterof2022(year-on-year),

amiddecreasinggasconsumptionandfurtherdwindlingdomesticproduction,whichalsofacilitatedthereplenishmentofstorages.Netgasimportalsoshrankfromthethirdquarterby4.5%(3.8bcm)reflectingtheeffectofthegasdemandreductionregulation5.NetimportsindifferentEUcountriesshowedahighvariationinQ42022inyear-on-yearcomparison.InDenmark,inparallelwithdecreasinggasconsumption,netimportsfelltopracticallyzeroandinLatviatheyfellby52%(-0.4bcm).Incontrast,netgasimportinMaltapracticallydoubled(thoughincreasingbyatiny0.07bcm),andinHungarynetimportsroseby58%(+1.1bcm)year-on-year.

LookingatthebiggestLNGimporters,inthelargestimporterFrancenetimportsroseby124%(from4.5bcmto10bcm),inthe

secondlargestimporterSpain,theywentup8.4%(+0.6bcm),whileintheNetherlands,inthirdplace,importswentupby78%(2.2bcm).ItalywasthefourthlargestimporterinQ4of2022increasingitsLNGpurchaseby118%(2bcm),whileinBelgiumtheincreasewasanastonishing148%(2.5bcm).Portugal,GreeceandPolandalsoimportedsignificantamounts(1.3bcm,1bcmand2bcm),whileLithuania,Croatia,Finland,SwedenandMaltaalsoaddedtotheEUimport.Overall,thetotalLNGimportamountedto36.7bcminthe4Qof2022,a13%increasefromthe3Q2022(32.4bcm)and66%increaseyear-on-year(from22bcmin4Q2021).

AccordingtoENTSO-Gdata,netimportsamountedto799TWhinthefourthquarterdown3.8%from837TWhinthethirdquarter

of2022,ofwhich55%arrivedthroughpipelinesandaround45%throughLNGterminals.ForafirsttimesincethebeginningofENTSO-Gtimeseries(January2014)almosthalfofgasimportarrivedintheEUviaLNGterminals.PipelinegasimportsfromRussiasawaspectacularlysteepfallof85%year-on-yearinQ42022,followinganacceleratingdeclineobservablethroughoutthepreviousthreequarters.Q2wasalreadycharacterisedby16.4%declineinRussianpipelineimportcompapredtoQ1,andthisdeclineacceleratedto59%inQ3andto88%inQ4of2022.ImportfromRussiaalmosthalvedfromQ3toQ4reflectingtheimpactsofvariouspipelinesdistruptioneventsfromJulytoSeptember,includingthecompletehaltofgasimportthroughNordStream1and2.ImportsfromNorwayweredownby7%quarter-on-quarter,probablyreflectingreduceddemandinEuropefollowingrecordhighpricesandtheimpactoftheEUgasdemandreductionact.PipelinegasimportsfromAlgeriashowedaslightincreaseof2.4%fromthepreviousquarterbutwasvirtuallythesameyear-on-year(0.6%decreasecomparedto2021Q4).Atthesametime,pipelinegasimportsfromLibyaincreasedsignificantly,by47.3%quarter-on-quarter,andwasupby9%onayear-on-yearbasisaswell;however,beingasmallquantityofaround1%oftotalEUimport,thisincreasedidnotinfluencetheoveralldownwardtrendinimport.TherealwinnerofthefourthquarterwasLNGimport,whichreached358TWhinQ42022,thehighestrecordedLNGimportever.GasinflowsfromtheUKwas22%downcomparedtothepreviousquarterat66TWh(6bcm),butstillthethirdhighestimportamountin2022,andsignificantlyabovehistoricalaverages.

TheshareofRussianpipelinegasintheEUexternalgasimportsfelltobelow10%inQ42022,downfromanalreadylow11,6%

inQ32022.Year-on-year,theshareofRussianpipelineimportsfellsignificantly,by29percentagepoints6.Inthefourthquarterof2022,Russianpipelinegasensuredlessthan10%oftheEUgasimportsinsharpcontrastwitha35.2%shareayearearlierinQ4of2021,andevenmoresoincontrastwitha48.4%shareinthesameperiodof2020.

3TheCommissioniscarryingoutathoroughreviewofalldataandsourcesrelatedtoimportvolumesaswellaspricesfor2022.Subjecttothisreview,aggregatedfiguresforthewholeof2022willlikelybepresentedinthenextquarterlyreport.

4Netimportsequalimportsminusexportsanddonotaccountforstockchanges.

5CouncilRegulation(EU)2022/1369of5August2022oncoordinateddemand-reductionmeasuresforgas,OJL206,8.8.2022.

6ItisworthtonotethatRussiaincreaseditsimportanceintheEULNGimportsoverthelastfewyears,numberspresentedinthissection,withtheexceptionofLNGorunlessotherwiseindicated,refertopipelineimports.

8

TheshareofpipelinegasimportsfromNorwaywas25%inthefourthquarterof2022,droppingslightlyfrom26%intheprevious

quarterbutupby1percentagepointcomparedtoQ42021.TheshareofpipelinegasimportsfromNorwaywasmorethanfourtimeshigherthantheshareofpipelineimportsfromRussia.Inthefourthquarterof2022,Norwegiangasimportamountedto19bcm(199TWh),down7%fromthepreviousquarteranddown11%year-on-year.

Inthefourthquarterof2022,pipelinegasimportsfromAlgeriawereupby2.4%fromthepreviousquarterbutslightlydownyear-

on-year;overallimportsharewithinthetotalextra-EUimportsremainedstable(risingslightlyto11%inQ42022).ImportsfromLibyaincreasedby47.3%,butitsshareremainedmarginalat1%ofthetotalEUgasimports.

InQ42022,theshareofLNGcontinuedtoriseandsurpassedthepreviousrecord,reachingahistorichighof45%inthetotalEU

gasimports,upbya21percentagepointscomparedtoQ42021(whenitwas24%),displacingRussiangasandtakingitsformermarketshareof2021(35,2%)and2020(48.4%).EuropeanmarketdivertedsupplyfromtheAsianmarkets,asfearsofsupplydisruptionsamidfallingRussianimportsincreasedEuropeangaspricestorecordlevels,andincentivisedLNGcargoredirectionstowardsEurope.InQ42022theyear-on-year85%decreaseintheshareofRussianpipelineflowswascompensatedbya59%increaseinLNGimportspartiallydisplacinginflowsfromtheUKandNorway,whichregisteredsmalldeclinesof22%and7%,respectively,whereasNorthAfrica’scontributiontotheoverallEUimportsupplydidnotchangesignificantly.

TheTransAdriaticPipeline(TAP)ensuredaround27TWhgasimportsintheEUinthefourthquarterof2022,inlinewiththe

previousquarters,whichrepresentedaround3.4%oftheEUtotalgasimports.TAPprovidesaccesstoAzerbaijanigasresourcesviatheSouthernGasCorridor,animportantresultoftheEUsecurityofgassupplypolicies.

LookingattheevolutionofdailygasinflowsfromdifferentsourcesonFigure7,thedailyinflowsfromRussiacontinuedto

decreaseinQ42022,andstabilisedatverylowlevelsinOctoberandNovember,andfurthersteppeddowntoanewlowfrommid-December.Atthesametime,theimportanceofLNGinflowshavegraduallygainedground.Inflowsfromothersources,suchasNorway,North-AfricaandtheUKremainedfairlystableovertime,butwithdwindlingRussianimportstheirrelativeimportanceincreased.

Figure6-EUimportsofnaturalgasbysource

Source:BasedondatafromtheENTSO-GTransparencyPlatform,2022.

ExportstotheBaltic-statesandFinlandarenotincludedinthechartowingtounavailabilityofreliabledata

Russia,Norway,AlgeriaandLibyaincludepipelineimportsonly;LNGimportscomingfromthesecountriesarereportedintheLNGcategory.AtradebalancewiththeUKisestimated,reflectingthattheUKisnolongerpartoftheEU,anditisnoteasytodeterminetheoriginofgasmoleculesarrivingtotheEUaftergoingthroughtheUKmarket(itcanbeUKproduction,importsfromNorwayofLNGimportsfromtheUK,etc.).Asof2021,importsviatheTransAdriaticPipeline(TAP)isalsoincluded.

9

Figure7-EUdailyimportsofnaturalgasbysource

Source:BasedondatafromtheENTSO-GTransparencyPlatform,2022.

Inthefourthquarterof2022theestimatedgasimportbillamountedto€64.5billion,asignificantdecreasefromthe

€101.5billioninthethirdquarter,comingbackclosertothetwopreviousquarters(€75billioninbothQ2andQ1of2022).Thebillwas3.8%higheryear-on-year,i.e.comparedtoQ4of2021(€62billion),butstillmorethantwiceasmuchasinthethirdquarterof2021,andmorethantripleoftheimportbillinQ2(€19,6billion)andQ1(€15.5billion)of2021.

Outoftheimportbillof€64.5billioninQ42022,€32.5billionwasspentonLNGimport;gasimportedfromNorwaywasaround

€17billion,andimportsfromRussiaamountedto€4.8billion.NorthAfrica(AlgeriaandLibya,€6.7billion)overtookRussia,whiletheTAPimportbillamountedto€3.6billion(reducedfrom€4.7billioninQ3).TheimportbillforRussiawasreducedby73.3%inQ42022year-on-year.

Figure8–Estimatedquarterlyextra-EUgasimportbill,inbillionsofeuros

120

100

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BillionEUR

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2Q3

2020

Q4

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2021

Q4

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Q2Q3

2022

Q4

Source:ENTSO-G,EurostatandowndatacalculationsfortheEUweightedaverageofimportgasprices

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100%

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10%

0%

Asimportantpipelinegassourcecountries,suchasRussia,NorwayandAlgeriaarealsoactiveontheLNGmarket,thisgasreport

alsotakesalookatthecombinedimportsofpipelinegasandLNGfromthesecountriesandcalculatestheshareofimportsincludingallgassources.TheshareofRussiaimportstotheEU(pipelineandLNGtogether)continuedtofallfrom16%inQ32022to15%inQ4(thelowestoverthelasteightyears).ThecombinedshareofpipelineandLNGgasofRussianoriginfellby25percentagepointsinQ42022year-on-year.

TheshareofNorwaywas27.5%withingasimportsinQ42022similartothepreviousquarter27.4%.TheshareofAlgeriawithin

thetotalextra-EUgasimportswas14.3,upfrom12.6%intheA3.11%onlyincludingpipelinegas),upby1percentagepointyear-on-year.TheshareofgasinflowsfromtheUKwasapprox.8.3%,downfrom10%inthepreviousquarter.ThelowerimportfromRussiawasmainlycompensatedbyadditionalLNGimportandpipelinegasfromNorthAfrica,while(pipeline)flowsfromNorwaysandAzerbajanwerestable.

Figure9–Theshareofgasimportswithinthetotal,combiningbothpipelineandLNGimports

Q1

Q2Q3

2019

Q4

Q1

Q2Q3

2020

Q4

Q1

Q2Q3

2021

Q4

Q1

Q2Q3

2022

Q4

RussiaNorwayAlgeriaLibyaTAPUKbalanceOtherLNG

Source:BasedondatafromtheENTSO-GTransparencyPlatform

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Figure10showshowremarkablytheroleofRussiangasimportschangedoverthelastcoupleofyears.WhileinJanuary2021

Russiaensured(withpipelineandLNGsupplies)around53%ofthetotalextra-EUgasimports,inQ3andQ42022thisdroppedto16%and15%atrendwellalignedwiththeobjectiveoftheRepowerEUplantophaseoutfossilenergyimportsfromRussia.

Figure10–MonthlypipelineandLNGimportsfromRussianandothersources

Source:BasedondatafromtheENTSO-GTransparencyPlatformandRefinitiv.

1.3.1.PipelineimportsfromRussia

Figure11showsthebreakdownofEUgasimportsfromRussiaonthefourmainpipelinesupplyroutes:Ukraine(whichincludesthe

BrotherhoodPipelineandthe-recentlylessimportant-Balkanroute),Belarus(practicallytheYamalpipeline),NordStream1and

TurkStream.

Inthefourthquarterof2022,thevolumeofRussianimportsfellsignificantly,by81%comparedwiththesamequarterof2021.

Thisyear-on-yeardeclinesurpassedanalreadystaggeringdeclineof73%year-on-yearinthethirdquarter.Onaquaterlybasis,thedeclineinthefourthquarterwas33%,inthefootstepofa58%fallinthethirdquarter.Inabsolutterms,totalRussianimportwas6bcminthefourthquarterfallingfrom9bcminthethirdquarterandfrom21bcminthesecondquarterof2022.Comparedtotwoyearsearlier,thequarterlydeclinewasevenmorepronounced,86%signallingafallfrom42bcminQ42020to6bcmin4Q2022.

AsshownonFigure11andFigure12,gastransitthroughtherouteofBelaruscontributedtothatstaggeringdeclinebya89%

decreaseinRussianexportvolumesonayearlybasis,whichmoderatedsomewhatcomparedto96%fallinQ32022year-on-year.InOctober,theaveragemonthlyflowthroughtheYamalpipelinewasstillbelow0.1bcm,slightlyincreasingtoarangearound0.2bcminNovemberandDecember.ThetotalimportviatheBelaruspipelinewas0.5bcmintheQ4of2022,a52%increasecomparedtothe3Q,butwaydownfrom5bcminthelastquarterof2021,andevenmoresofrom10,5bcminthelastquartertwoyearsago,in2020.

GasflowstransitingUkraineweredownagainby63%incomparisontoQ42021,inthefootstepofasimilar63%year-on-year

declinein3Q.Onaquarter-on-quarterbasisthedeclineslowedto1%fromthepreviousquarter,theflowstabilisingataround3.3bcminthelasttwoquartersoftheyear.ThemonthlyaveragetransitthroughUkraineremained1.1bcm,downfrom3bcminQ42021,and4.6bcminQ42020.Thequarterlyflowwasabout76%lowerthaninthesameperiodin2020and85%lowerthanintheperiodof2018-2019(pre-Covid-19andenergycrisisyears).InQ42022,themonthlytransitvolumethroughUkrainewithEUdestinationswasaround1bcm.

ThebiggestcontributortothefallintheRussianpipelinegasexportwashowevertheNordStreamroute,whereflows