電子行業(yè)專題研究：1H23表現(xiàn)回顧荷蘭出口管制新政

1Oct-22Feb-23Jun-23告華泰研究1H2Oct-22Feb-23Jun-23告華泰研究1H23表現(xiàn)回顧：AI算力和半導(dǎo)體設(shè)備國(guó)產(chǎn)化是上半年主線英偉達(dá)市值突破1萬(wàn)億美元)，6/30蘋果市值超3萬(wàn)億美元，特斯拉累計(jì)漲第6。電子板塊，AI算力(寒武紀(jì)+245%/工業(yè)富聯(lián)175%)和半導(dǎo)體設(shè)備國(guó)產(chǎn)化(拓荊科技+97%/華海清科+68%)是上半年主線，傳音(+88%)/理想(+76%)因銷量超預(yù)期漲幅突出，而模擬和功率板塊跌幅居前(圣邦-38%/斯達(dá)-34%)。華泰觀點(diǎn)：關(guān)注荷蘭半導(dǎo)體設(shè)備出口管制及SEMICON2023反饋體制造設(shè)備的出口管制措施，規(guī)定EUV以及避免了1980Di也買不到的最差情況，但需要留意后續(xù)美國(guó)追加限制部分企業(yè)UVSEMICONChina存儲(chǔ)董事長(zhǎng)陳南翔等呼吁在新形式下，應(yīng)該依托國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)，推進(jìn)半導(dǎo)料國(guó)產(chǎn)化進(jìn)度。A股：SW電子上漲0.8%，跑贏上證指數(shù)(0.1%)前企業(yè)包括：華海清科(+12.3%)、盛美半導(dǎo)體(+11.1%)、北方華創(chuàng)(+7.7%)；跌幅居前企業(yè)包括：寒武紀(jì)-U(-18.6%)、芯原股份(-11.9%)、海光信息 增持(維持)研究研究員SACNo.S0570521050001leping.huang@SFCSFCNo.AUZ066++(852)36586000研究研究員SACNo.S0570521070004chenxudong@SFCSFCNo.BPH392++(86)2128972228研究研究員SACSACNo.S0570522120003+(86)2128972228研究研究員SACNo.S0570520090002yuyi@SFCSFCNo.BNC535++(86)75582492388研究研究員SACSACNo.S0570522020001zhanghaoyizhanghaoyi@+(86)2128972228研究研究員SACSACNo.S0570522070002liuyiliuyi020747@+(86)2128972228聯(lián)系人聯(lián)系人SACNo.S0570121090024zhangyu@SFCSFCNo.BSF274+(86)+(86)1063211166聯(lián)系人聯(lián)系人SACNo.S0570121040041huyuzhou@SFCSFCNo.BOB674++(86)2128972228聯(lián)系人聯(lián)系人SACNo.S0570121070191andrewhuang@SFCNo.BRH099+(86)2128972228港股：恒生科技指數(shù)上漲0.8%，跑贏恒生指數(shù)(0.1%)上周全部港股日均成交額合計(jì)598億港元，環(huán)比下跌6.1%。恒生科技主要成分股中漲幅居前的企業(yè)包括：小鵬汽車-W(+26.3%)、蔚來-SW(+10.7%)小米集團(tuán)-W(7.3%)；其他跌幅居前企業(yè)包括：閱文集團(tuán)(-6.0%)、京東集團(tuán)-SW(5.5%)、金山軟件(-5.2%)。傳媒互聯(lián)網(wǎng)板塊，快手跌1.1%，騰訊跌1.6%，美團(tuán)跌1.9%，阿里巴巴跌3.4%，百度跌3.9%。南向資金上周合計(jì)凈流入22億港元，主要增持騰訊控股、美團(tuán)-W、中國(guó)移動(dòng)，減持中國(guó)聯(lián)通、比亞迪股份、舜宇光學(xué)科技。海外：納斯達(dá)克中概股上漲1.7%，納指上漲2.2%，標(biāo)普500上漲2.3%Q營(yíng)收38億美元，yoy-57%/qoq+2%；GAAP凈利潤(rùn)-19Q善，24年將持續(xù)減產(chǎn)。上周納斯達(dá)克中概股漲1.7%，納指漲2.2%，標(biāo)普500漲2.3%，費(fèi)城半導(dǎo)體指數(shù)漲4.7%。半導(dǎo)體板塊漲幅居前：WOLFSPEED (+12.4%)、恩智浦(+8.5%)、德州儀器(+7.4%)，跌幅較大的為聯(lián)電 (-10.0%)、美光(-3.3%)、臺(tái)積電(-0.9%)。互聯(lián)網(wǎng)板塊：亞馬遜漲0.8%，蔚來漲14.9%，理想漲5.7%，特斯拉漲2.0%。上周比特幣下跌0.01%。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示：中美貿(mào)易摩擦升級(jí)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，宏觀下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，創(chuàng)新品滲透不及預(yù)期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。本研報(bào)中涉及到未上市公司或未覆蓋個(gè)股內(nèi)容，均系對(duì)其客觀公開信息的整理，并不代表本研究團(tuán)隊(duì)對(duì)該公司、該股票的推薦或覆蓋。行業(yè)走勢(shì)圖電子滬深300電子(%)7(3)(13)(22)Jul-22資料來源：Wind，華泰研究0510152025303540051015202530354045403530252050(X)(%)S&P500(X)(%)S&P500前向PE納斯達(dá)克100前向PE2013/062013/092013/122014/032014/062014/092014/122015/032015/062015/092015/122016/032016/062016/092016/122017/032017/062017/092017/122018/032018/062018/092018/122019/032019/062019/092019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/064.54.03.53.02.52.0500.50.0資料來源：Bloomberg，華泰研究90807060504030200CNNFear&GreedIndexCBOEVolatilityIndex(右軸)2021/032021/042021/052021/062021/072021/082021/092021/102021/112021/122022/012022/022022/032022/042022/052022/062022/072022/082022/092022/102022/112022/122023/012023/022023/032023/042023/052023/06注：指數(shù)往上反映投資者對(duì)市場(chǎng)越樂觀(越貪婪)，往下反映投資者對(duì)市場(chǎng)越悲觀(越恐慌)資料來源：CNN，CBOE，Wind，華泰研究35,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000恒生指數(shù)沽空比例(右軸)30%25%20%15%10%5%0%2021/012021/022021/032021/042021/052021/062021/072021/082021/092021/102021/112021/122022/012022/022022/032022/042022/052022/062022/072022/082022/092022/102022/112022/122023/012023/022023/032023/042023/052023/06注：做空比例=全日賣出金額/(市場(chǎng)成交額-Warrant和CBBC金額)資料來源：Wind，華泰研究A18,00016,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000A股成交量總額萬(wàn)得全A指數(shù)(右軸)6,5006,0005,5005,0004,5004,0002021/012021/022021/032021/042021/052021/062021/072021/082021/092021/102021/112021/122022/012022/022022/032022/042022/052022/062022/072022/082022/092022/102022/112022/122023/012023/022023/032023/042023/052023/06資料來源：Wind，華泰研究A(億元)7,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,0000TMT板塊成交金額占比60%50%40%30%20%10%0%2012/062013/062014/062015/062016/062017/062018/062019/062020/062021/062022/062023/06注：TMT行業(yè)主要包括電子、通信、計(jì)算機(jī)、傳媒資料來源：Wind，華泰研究244.6%0.8-0.5-0.6-0.5-0.6-2.4-0.9--0.20.00.10.3-1.91.00.4-244.6%0.8-0.5-0.6-0.5-0.6-2.4-0.9--0.20.00.10.3-1.91.00.4-一覽P/S南向/北向資金持股市值(人民幣億元)北向/南向資金P/S南向/北向資金持股市值(人民幣億元)北向/南向資金流入(億人民幣/億港元)0.70.5股價(jià)變動(dòng)1M-26.0% 3.4%-26.3%29.4% 3.5%-23.0% -9.7%-11.2%15.7% 4.7% -6.4% -8.8% 2.3% 0.5%16.4% -1.9% -6.4% -7.1% 0.5% -6.1% -6.7% -5.1% 4.0% -5.8%-19.5%-16.9% -3.6%-12.7%-11.6% -7.0%-13.6% 1.0% -5.3% -9.5%-10.0%-15.7% -5.6% -5.8%9.2%南向/北向資金持股市值(億人民幣/億港元)9.44.0P/E2023E2024E財(cái)報(bào)貨幣比例(%)1.71.4公司名稱代碼2023E2024E1W-18.6% 5.6%-10.6%11.1%12.3%-11.9% -1.0% -8.3% 3.0% 7.7% -1.6% -3.4% 5.9% -7.1% -9.9% -2.4% 1.7% -0.6% 1.5% -3.5% 1.2% -1.4% 2.8% 0.7% -7.6% -4.5% -1.4% 1.9% % 1.3% -4.0% 3.0% -0.3% -5.5% -4.4% -0.6% 6.0% -0.3% -2.3% -2.9% 0.0% 0.5% -2.2% -0.6% -7.4% -3.8% 1.4%-3.8%2.9% -0.8% -3.0%-10.6% 1.5% 2.8% 0.3% 3.4% -3.0% 1.4% -8.8% 0.3% 2.8% 0.0% -2.8% 6.7% -1.7% 6.7% -2.7% 5.6% 7.3% -5.8% 0.7% -2.9% 4.4% 6.0% 0.6% 0.0% 3.7% 6.7% -1.4% 6.9% 3.0%8.6%2.5%-1.9%26.3%-2.2% 0.7%-9.8%10.7%-9.7% 1.6%1.6%YTD(元交易貨幣)半導(dǎo)體半導(dǎo)體688256CH688072CH688041CHACMR688256CH688072CH688041CHACMRUS688120CH688521CH688012CH688018CH0522HK002371CH688082CH002156CH301269CH600584CH688048CH603501CH300223CH688981CH0981HK688099CH688126CH002185CH603690CH300604CH688608CH603893CH603986CH600703CH688396CH688206CH300672CH1347HK600460CH603160CH688008CH688508CH300623CH688107CH300782CH688200CH688595CH688536CH300327CH605111CH300373CH688187CH688052CH688123CH603290CH300661CH-96.399.7121.9N.A.54.0238.467.666.815.351.261.645.6265.321.087.850.347.569.828.638.5149.336.126.437.066.172.753.256.224.7235.844.711.833.528.1264.940.935.956.860.729.823.817.720.872.416.332.851.1-140.266.983.8N.A.40.2153.753.246.612.937.848.830.7200.815.354.132.835.548.522.326.8115.925.220.027.742.650.6158.632.211.026.346.332.826.421.0128.129.826.933.440.023.118.514.618.440.812.124.437.872.918.821.3N.A.14.910.68.412.41.460.21.726.95.05.74.15.414.96.38.911.149.713.515.3N.A.11.18.312.05.03.34.610.29.713.08.67835391,587574013599671052931,6834793426675571671,1614252,1112,11135157129513428914530470986069212218130942921265266133222516207462629613022051122485368384188.0426.068.313.1252.171.9156.5129.877.2317.7110.422.6122.831.294.598.088.350.520.484.347.5121.072.9106.317.252.428.083.425.630.346.357.458.018.155.496.6153.032.0218.028.043.540.641.9158.453.7215.282.1CNYCNYCNYUSDCNYCNYCNYCNYHKDCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYUSDUSDCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYUSDCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNY 96.5% 70.2% 69.6% 67.5% 63.2% 59.6%44.0%43.1%41.0% 38.2% 37.7% 36.6% 36.0%27.5%27.2%25.5%22.8%22.0%19.6%18.7%n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.4.536.03.40.31.40.53.65.01.24.913.01.90.5n.a.0.00.910.02.00.92.013.12.00.76.0拓荊科技海光信息盛美半導(dǎo)體0.30.03.7-0.30.00.03.7-0.30.01.20.30.1-0.3-0.4-0.211.3%10.8%6.8%6.2%5.9%4.3%0.5%-0.1%-0.3%-2.0%-6.1%-7.4%-7.9%-8.3%-10.2%-13.7%-15.3%-17.7%-20.5%-20.8%-20.9%-21.1%-22.0%-23.3%-30.0%-30.2%-34.2%-38.0%-0.4-0.40.10.2芯原股份中微公司樂鑫科技ASMPT北方華創(chuàng)盛美上海通富微電華大九天長(zhǎng)電科技長(zhǎng)光華芯韋爾股份北京君正中芯國(guó)際中芯國(guó)際晶晨股份滬硅產(chǎn)業(yè)華天科技至純科技長(zhǎng)川科技恒玄科技瑞芯微兆易創(chuàng)新三安光電華潤(rùn)微概倫電子國(guó)科微華虹半導(dǎo)體0.00.0-13.4%-11.2% -4.0% -8.1% -5.1% -0.4% -8.5%-14.7%-10.8% -1.3%-1.3%0.30.20.3-0.2-0.2匯頂科技瀾起科技芯朋微捷捷微電安路科技卓勝微華峰測(cè)控芯?？萍妓既鹌种蟹f電子新潔能揚(yáng)杰科技時(shí)代電氣納芯微聚辰股份斯達(dá)半導(dǎo)圣邦股份非非半導(dǎo)體174.5%87.5%77.1%76.6%174.5%87.5%77.1%76.6%27.5%22.9%21.9%6.5%15.3%13.6%13.4%6.0%6.0%5.8%.1%.1%2.7%1.6%-2.0%-2.6%-4.4%-4.9%-5.0%-8.0%-9.0%7%9%3%3%-32.2%3.725.221.0147.031.620.924.319.819.316.916.06.519.511.929.566.81.611.819.914.01.10.913.821.017.824.79.2199.7160.00.70.775.420.918.418.415.330.032.519.014.216.65.24.310.724.320.00.80.733.118.621.321.029.428.423.70.315.00.423.928.324.3282.434.626.713.810.5137.324.578.223.318.62.01.835.3CNYCNYCNYCNYUSDCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYUSDCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYHKDCNYCNYCNYCNYUSD39.6%16.9% 0.2% 0.7%11.0% 4.6% 3.7% 1% -4.9%-11.4% 9.5% 2.9% 1.8% -3.4% -5.1% -3.8%14.8% -1.7%19.4% -6.9% -4.5% 3.7% -5.0%10.7% -2.7% 4.7% 6.4% 3.3% -1.7% 5.8% 0.6% 3.7%6.2%601138CH688036CH002463CH002236CH0992HK000725CH300136CH000100CH300296CH300115CH002841CH300433CH002635CH002241CH000050CH002916CH2018HK000636CH002475CH600183CHTUYAUS1810HK002415CH002484CH300408CH0285HK601231CH002138CH002938CH1888HK688301CH600563CH2382HK000049CH6088HK5,0051,1823996579141,554194740165143469585936072263872041772,314332782,4753,10017956249233019356421228730979010693124.830.9128.35.724.42.02.513.519.51.418.74.812.610.42.2180.817.4n.a.312.518.410.524.525.311.712.618.81.05.9n.a.15.30.66.34.45.03.87.33.40.53.910.68.71.23.8-0.3傳音控股滬電股份大華股份-0.3聯(lián)想集團(tuán)-0.33.317.03.317.00.0信維通信TCL科技利亞德10.0-0.210.0-0.20.3-9.9n.a.0.00.0-0.9-0.20.01.80.00.2視源股份藍(lán)思科技安潔科技歌爾股份深天馬A深南電路瑞聲科技風(fēng)華高科立訊精密生益科技涂鴉智能小米集團(tuán)-W?？低暯９煞萑h(huán)集團(tuán)比亞迪電子環(huán)旭電子順絡(luò)電子鵬鼎控股建滔積層板奕瑞科技法拉電子-0.8%-0.8%1%0.20.0德賽電池FITHONTEN汽汽車電子135.5113.3155.853.8135.5113.3155.853.850.0-1.311.6342.234.231.4144.455.539.03.32.575.913.042.69.725.711.313.4CNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYCNYHKD76.4%48.8%30.4%1%3.8%-3.3%-3.4%-3.6%-21.5%-24.0%19.8%37.3%61.0%-1.2%26.8% 8.4%29.0%-1.5% 4.4%8.3%2,6048659962761631731,17544110482211.528.278.09.33.214.32015HK002920CH9868HK002405CH002906CH688326CH9866HK300496CH002036CH0710HK-0.4n.a.n.a.0.10.10.011.70.7n.a.n.a.26.00.50.0n.a.6.71.40.7德賽西威小鵬汽車-W四維圖新華陽(yáng)集團(tuán)經(jīng)緯恒潤(rùn)-W蔚來-SW中科創(chuàng)達(dá)聯(lián)創(chuàng)電子京東方精電注：此表中北向/南向資金流入=北向/南向資金流入股數(shù)*周交易均價(jià)，使用Wind一致預(yù)期。資料來源：Wind，華泰研究代碼公司名稱財(cái)報(bào)貨幣值(人民幣收盤價(jià)股價(jià)變動(dòng)北向/南向資金流入(億人民幣/億港南向/北向資金持股南向/北向資金市值(億人民幣/億持股比例(當(dāng)?shù)刎泿旁?E2024E(%)信8CH中際旭創(chuàng)CNY1,1848%5%2CH新易盛CNY4835%988CH華工科技CNY382 3CH中興通訊CNY2,0335-2.3938CH紫光股份CNY911%4%41CH中國(guó)移動(dòng)CNY12,9302%40.7%-0.328CH中國(guó)電信CNY4,8507%3%300383CH光環(huán)新網(wǎng)CNY1937%688100CH威勝信息CNY149.47%0%.0n.a.0941HK中國(guó)移動(dòng)CNY12,930%.6688048CH長(zhǎng)光華芯CNY1679%02139CH拓邦股份CNY166-0.3.90728HK中國(guó)電信CNY4,8506%102123CH夢(mèng)網(wǎng)科技CNY1077%0%02396CH星網(wǎng)銳捷CNY1346%.1002402CH和而泰CNY158-0.2.00762HK中國(guó)聯(lián)通CNY1,4618%-6.350CH中國(guó)聯(lián)通CNY1,527.86%4%-1.2.1CDUS秦淮數(shù)據(jù)CNY1900%%300628CH億聯(lián)網(wǎng)絡(luò)CNY4432%%603236CH移遠(yuǎn)通信CNY1534%3.0%%9698HK萬(wàn)國(guó)數(shù)據(jù)-SWCNY150-10.345%%計(jì)算機(jī)977CH浪潮信息CNY7145%6.0%-0.9002230CH科大訊飛CNY1,574.9%107.0%.0688088CH虹軟科技CNY17484%.4%300033CH同花順CNY942211.5%9.0%.0688111CH金山辦公CNY2,1792173CH千方科技CNY2162%45CH寶信軟件CNY1,02947%-0.8600271CH航天信息CNY2542%7%65CH東華軟件CNY2268%2%4002153CH石基信息CNY382%6%3888HK金山軟件CNY388.02%002439CH啟明星辰CNY281.87%40570CH恒生電子CNY84231%4.6%9-6.5300253CH衛(wèi)寧健康CNY232.89%9.0%505CH四維圖新CNY276.72%4.188083CH中望軟件CNY1765%0.0%4300773CH拉卡拉CNY1408%3477CH中控技術(shù)CNY4930.08%4CH深信服CNY472.16%6CH中科創(chuàng)達(dá)CNY4416.77%1.5%-0020HK商湯科技CNY6397.2-21.54%1.4%-002268CH衛(wèi)士通CNY2362.58%-5.8%-688023CH安恒信息CNY138%4.1%-688188CH柏楚電子CNY27607%588CH用友網(wǎng)絡(luò)CNY7040%-0.2561CH奇安信CNY355.3%.2002410CH廣聯(lián)達(dá)CNY5410-5.4%--0.88083HK中國(guó)有贊CNY244.20.7%5.3%-28.6%0268HK金蝶國(guó)際CNY33%-2013HK微盟集團(tuán)CNY98-54.70%002555CH三七互娛CNY774.0.9%8.4%9-2.5624CH完美世界CNY3285%-8.1%3HK網(wǎng)易-SCNY4,535.015.7%3.4%CNY3,4249%11.2%113CH芒果超媒CNY640.07%16.9%1.0%0772HK閱文集團(tuán)CNY3090%11.3%8-0.74訊CNY29,271.46%6.8%5002027CH分眾傳媒CNY984%4-1.89988HK阿里巴巴CNY15,857-3.4%4.2%-5.9%300251CH光線傳媒CNY2373%-639CH萬(wàn)達(dá)電影CNY273%-10.4%-0.2HK快手-WCNY2,141-95.5724.6%CNY7,0389%30.0%9626HK嗶哩嗶哩-SWCNY447-9.99%37.5%09618HK京東集團(tuán)CNY3,8815%39.0%數(shù)通信(申萬(wàn))2,769.6-0.8%10.9%媒(申萬(wàn))8%5%8%申萬(wàn))概股指數(shù)1.457.69.4% %2%18,916.43.7%-4.4%HSTECH.HI恒生科技3,911.3 %-5.3%注：此表中北向/南向資金流入=北向/南向資金流入股數(shù)*周交易均價(jià)，使用Wind一致預(yù)期。資料來源：Wind，華泰研究201599999868099209819888388807720700201201599999868099209819888388807720700201899616060181098660285998813470020669018332382102498980241369066180268962696189698理想汽車-W網(wǎng)易-S小鵬汽車-W聯(lián)想集團(tuán)中芯國(guó)際百度集團(tuán)-SW金山軟件閱文集團(tuán)騰訊控股瑞聲科技攜程集團(tuán)-S眾安在線小米集團(tuán)-W蔚來-SW比亞迪電子阿里巴巴-SW華虹半導(dǎo)體商湯-W海爾智家平安好醫(yī)生舜宇光學(xué)科技快手-W微博-SW阿里健康美團(tuán)-W京東健康金蝶國(guó)際嗶哩嗶哩-W京東集團(tuán)-SW萬(wàn)國(guó)數(shù)據(jù)-SW非必需性消費(fèi)資訊科技非必需性消費(fèi)資訊科技資訊科技資訊科技資訊科技非必需性消費(fèi)資訊科技工業(yè)非必需性消費(fèi)金融業(yè)資訊科技非必需性消費(fèi)資訊科技資訊科技資訊科技資訊科技非必需性消費(fèi)醫(yī)療保健業(yè)工業(yè)資訊科技資訊科技醫(yī)療保健業(yè)資訊科技醫(yī)療保健業(yè)資訊科技資訊科技資訊科技資訊科技2%0%4%3%2%1%HKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKDHKD3,6046,2771,3781,2642,9224,73953642840,5082822,3773993,4251,62668121,9444278842,9492701,0942,9623088139,7412,0064656185,372208135.50152.6050.00 8.1720.40132.8030.8532.95331.60 18.44272.60 21.30 10.72 75.85 23.70 81.20 25.60 2.07 24.65 18.94 78.15 53.55102.60 4.71122.30 49.45 10.48116.70132.4010.70 公司板塊分類成分占比交易貨幣市值(億元港幣)股價(jià)(港幣元)1W股價(jià)漲跌幅30D沽空比例YTD恒恒生科技指數(shù)成份 18.9%18.7%8.7%.6%.9%.2%.0%.7%.4%.5%.0%.8%恒恒生科技指數(shù)成份注：市值、股價(jià)取6月30日收盤價(jià)，采用Wind匯率資料來源：Wind，華泰研究SHOPUSCRMUSADBEUSNOWUSMSFTUSSNOWUSACNUSSHOPIFYSALESFORCEADOBESERVICENOWMICROSOFTSNOWFLAKEACCENTURE-AShopify塞富時(shí)奧多比ServiceNow微軟Snowflake埃森哲USDUSDUSDSHOPUSCRMUSADBEUSNOWUSMSFTUSSNOWUSACNUSSHOPIFYSALESFORCEADOBESERVICENOWMICROSOFTSNOWFLAKEACCENTURE-AShopify塞富時(shí)奧多比ServiceNow微軟Snowflake埃森哲USDUSDUSDUSDUSDUSDUSD82,621205,767222,882114,6422,532,08157,352205,09764.60211.26488.99561.97340.54175.98308.58PSP/FCFP/FCFP/FCFP/FCF PSPE12.331.227.640.828.927.926.710.424.824.433.823.920.824.70.6%0.9%3.5%1.6% .0% 0.8%3.9%2.8%7.3% %-2.3%%%%-5.4%3.2%3.7%6.4%-3.6%6.4% 4.5%6.1%8.4%8.5%-1.3% 9.5%6.4%3.2%-7.5%-6.4%3.5%-9.4%5.0%8.1%-2.6% 6.8%4.2%5.8% %20.8%70.3% .2%28.7%.7%.1%.9%.6%.2%.5%.6%.0%.6%.5%.6%.4%.5%.2%.6%.1%9.7%.5% %55.2%49.4%35.7%.6%5.3%.2%.6%.0%.0%AAPLUS6861JPCSCOUS1810HKAPPLEKEYENCECISCOSYSTEMSXIAOMI-W蘋果KEYENCE思科小米USDJPYUSDHKD3,050,896114,400210,84434,254193.9767,850.00 51.7410.72PEPEPEPE32.445.313.623.229.543.012.819.8TSLAUSLIUSXPEVUS1211HKLCIDUSNIOUSRIVNUSTESLALIAUTOXPENGBYDCOMPANYLUCIDGROUPNIORIVIANAUTOMOTIVE特斯拉理想小鵬比亞迪Lucid蔚來RivianUSDUSDUSDHKDUSDUSDUSD829,68136,04113,77999,83215,65816,26115,649261.77 35.10 13.42250.00 6.89 9.6916.66PSPSPSPSPSPSPS8.32.62.7 1.215.8 1.93.96.51.81.61.06.31.22.0.1%-2.2%代碼公司交易貨幣市值股價(jià)估值方式估值(百萬(wàn)美元)30-Jun2023E2024E1W股價(jià)漲跌幅30DYTD軟軟件.3%.7%.7%%17.1%半半導(dǎo)體NVDAUSAMDUS8035JPAVGOUSLRCXUS000660KSAMATUSIFXNTRASMLNANXPIUS005930KSKLACUSINTCUS2330TTMUUS2303TTTXNUS2454TTQCOMUSWOLFUSNVIDIAADVANCEDMICRODEVICESTOKYOELECTRONBROADCOMLAMRESEARCHSKHYNIXAPPLIEDMATERIALINFINEONTECHNOLOGIESASMLHOLDINGNXPSEMICONDUCTORSSAMSUNGELECKLAINTELTSMCMICRONTECHNOLOGYMCTEXASINSTRUMENTSMTKQUALCOMMWOLFSPEED英偉達(dá)AMD超威半導(dǎo)體東京電子博通拉姆研究SK海力士應(yīng)用材料英飛凌阿斯麥恩智浦三星電子科天英特爾臺(tái)積電鎂光聯(lián)電德州儀器聯(lián)發(fā)科高通公司W(wǎng)OLFSPEEDUSDUSDJPYUSDUSDKRWUSDEUREURUSDKRWUSDUSDTWDUSDTWDUSDTWDUSDUSD1,044,859183,43667,224357,97686,36263,777121,37751,767285,97953,164327,77666,544139,478523,37969,12418,501163,39635,534132,6116,920423.02113.9120,560.00867.43642.86115,200.00144.5437.75663.00204.6872,200.00485.0233.44576.0063.1148.50180.02688.00119.0455.59PEPEPEPEPEPBPEPEPEPEPBPEPEPBPBPEPEPEPEPS129.739.822.020.619.4.519.614.735.315.4.419.6102.04.3.610.523.915.514.37.655.227.5.420.514.429.414.4.323.69.822.112.412.36.5互互聯(lián)網(wǎng)METAUSAMZNUSNFLXUSGOOGUSSEUS0700HK9988HKPDDUS1024HK3690HK9618HKMETAPLATFORMSAMAZONNETFLIXALPHABET-CL-ASEATENCENTBABA-SWPDDKUAISHOU-WMEITUAN-WJD-SWMeta亞馬遜奈飛谷歌SEA騰訊阿里巴巴拼多多快手美團(tuán)京東USDUSDUSDUSDUSDHKDHKDUSDHKDHKDHKD735,4531,337,540195,8141,527,41132,779405,083219,44491,85929,62497,40853,716286.98130.36440.49119.7058.04331.6081.2069.1453.55122.30132.40PEEV/EBIDAPSPEPSPEPEPSPSPEPE20.82.520.338.012.318.02.217.023.210.4硬硬件.7%10.3%汽汽車 -0.6%指指數(shù)OXGI106752.MIIXIC.GIPXGI費(fèi)城半導(dǎo)體指數(shù)MSCI全球信息科技納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)標(biāo)普500納斯達(dá)克中概股3,673.1535.0,787.94,450.4,557.6注：市值、股價(jià)取6月30日收盤價(jià)，采用Wind匯率資料來源：Wind，Bloomberg，華泰研究股價(jià)變動(dòng)1M1WYTD3%54.3%51.9%43.2%33.0%25.0%6.3%-0.3%57.9%29.2%股價(jià)變動(dòng)1M1WYTD3%54.3%51.9%43.2%33.0%25.0%6.3%-0.3%57.9%29.2%12.6%32.7%8%79.7%61.7%34.4%-0.4%29.9%26.2%18.9%15.3%6.4%2.0%2.8%2.3%2.3%0.6%0.2%-0.4%4.7%-0.6%-0.5%2.5%0.6%3.7%1.7%4.0%1.6%2.8%3.4%1.4%-0.3%2.0%6.3%7.2%4.9%0.4%-0.4%0.5%9.5%6.9%6.4%-2.8%0.0%4.3%0.5%7.5%WindWind代碼彭博代碼工業(yè)電子股票代碼公司名稱工業(yè)電子市值收盤價(jià)PE估值(十億日元)(日元/股)2023E2024E6723.T6503.T6701.T6963.T6501.T6504.T6702.T6723JPEquity6503JPEquity6701JPEquity6963JPEquity6501JPEquity6504JPEquity6702JPEquity6723650367016963650165046702JPJPJPJPJPJPJPRenesasElectronics(瑞薩)MitsubishiElectric(三菱電機(jī))NEC(日本電氣)Rohm(羅姆半導(dǎo)體)Hitachi(日立)FujiElectric(富士電機(jī))Fujitsu(富士通)231856728262775136462701.5202769658896629027.028.222.029.628.518.918.322.930.017.821.283.136.933.730.233.656.226.020.828.2451755506803.93790854122610205602157555678236779178456502JPEquity消費(fèi)電子6752JPEquity6758JPEquity7951JPEquity6753JPEquity6502.T6752.T6758.T7951.T6753.T7751.T4901.T6857.T6146.T8035.T7741.T6920.T6762.T6981.T6971.T6594.T6502JP27252261538093409611245352050445224744078消費(fèi)電子6752JP6758JP6752JP6758JP7951JP6753JPSonyGroup(索尼集團(tuán))Yamaha(雅馬哈)Sharp(夏普)精密和醫(yī)療設(shè)備精密和醫(yī)療設(shè)備精密和醫(yī)療設(shè)備7751JPEquity47751JPEquity4901JPEquitySPE6857JPEquity6146JPEquity8035JPEquity7741JPEquity6920JPEquity電子零部件6762JPEquity6981JPEquity6971JPEquity6594JPEquity7751JP4901JPFujifilmHoldings(富士控股)SPE6857JP61466857JP6146JP8035JP7741JP6920JPDisco(迪思科)TokyoElectron(東京電子)Hoya(豪雅)LASERTEC(雷瑟科)電子零部件67626762JP6981JP6971JP6594JPMurataManufacturing(村田)Kyocera(京瓷)Nidec(日本電產(chǎn))指數(shù)指數(shù)指數(shù) N225. N225.GINKYIndexN225.GINikkei225StockIndex(日經(jīng)225指數(shù))33189.020.420.4注：市值、股價(jià)取6月30日收盤價(jià)，采用Wind匯率資料來源：Wind，Bloomberg，華泰研究代碼公司名稱事事件名稱2023/7/52317TW鴻海精密6月收入披露2023/7/62303TW聯(lián)華電子6月收入披露2023/7/63034TW聯(lián)詠科技6月收入披露資料來源：FactSet，Wind，華泰研究證券代碼證券簡(jiǎn)稱變動(dòng)方向股東名稱公告日期方案進(jìn)度(擬)減持股數(shù)(萬(wàn)股)(擬)變動(dòng)數(shù)量上限占總股本比(%)688111CH金山辦公減持CUIYAN2023/6/28進(jìn)行中0.250.00002396CH星網(wǎng)銳捷減持維實(shí)(平潭)創(chuàng)業(yè)投資股份有限公司2023/6/26完成1395.102.35300672CH國(guó)科微減持黃然等2023/6/29進(jìn)行中23.650.11688018CH樂鑫科技減持樂鑫(香港)投資有限公司2023/6/29完成160.001.99688107CH安路科技減持國(guó)家集成電路產(chǎn)業(yè)投資基金股份有限公司2023/6/30進(jìn)行中800.202.00資料來源：Wind，華泰研究證券代碼證券簡(jiǎn)稱公告日期方案進(jìn)度激勵(lì)方式激勵(lì)股數(shù)(萬(wàn)股)期權(quán)初始行權(quán)價(jià)格主要公司層面行權(quán)條件688008CH瀾起科技2023/6/30實(shí)施上市公司定向發(fā)行股票及上市公司提取激勵(lì)基金買入流通股197.3020.00本激勵(lì)計(jì)劃的考核年度為2023-2025年三個(gè)會(huì)計(jì)年度，每個(gè)會(huì)計(jì)年度考核一次，根據(jù)公司業(yè)績(jī)考核指標(biāo)的完成情況核算各年度公司層面歸屬比例。第一個(gè)歸屬期：對(duì)應(yīng)考核年度2023，新產(chǎn)品B1目標(biāo)：MXC芯片完成量產(chǎn)版研發(fā)并實(shí)現(xiàn)出貨，新產(chǎn)品B2目標(biāo)：用于MRDIMM的內(nèi)存接口芯片完成量產(chǎn)版研發(fā)并實(shí)現(xiàn)出貨，新產(chǎn)品B3目標(biāo)：CKD芯片完成量產(chǎn)版研發(fā)并實(shí)現(xiàn)出貨；第二個(gè)歸屬期：對(duì)應(yīng)考核年度2024，毛利潤(rùn)目標(biāo)值19億元，觸發(fā)值17億元；第三個(gè)歸屬期：對(duì)應(yīng)考核年度2025，毛利潤(rùn)目標(biāo)值21億元，觸發(fā)值17億元。本激勵(lì)計(jì)劃預(yù)留授予的限制性股票各年度業(yè)績(jī)考核目標(biāo)安排與首次授予部分一致。688082CH盛美上海2023/6/29股東大會(huì)通上市公司定向發(fā)1331.0050.15第一個(gè)歸屬期：2023年，2023年?duì)I業(yè)收入增長(zhǎng)率，業(yè)績(jī)考核目標(biāo)A≧對(duì)標(biāo)企業(yè)算術(shù)平均增長(zhǎng)率，歸屬比例(X)X=100%，業(yè)績(jī)考核目標(biāo)對(duì)標(biāo)企業(yè)算術(shù)平均增長(zhǎng)率*0.8≦A<對(duì)標(biāo)企業(yè)算術(shù)平均增長(zhǎng)率，歸屬比例(X)X=80%，業(yè)績(jī)考核目標(biāo)A<對(duì)標(biāo)企業(yè)算術(shù)平均增長(zhǎng)率*0.8，歸屬比例(X)0。第二個(gè)歸屬期：2024年，2023年、2024年兩年?duì)I業(yè)收入增長(zhǎng)率累計(jì)值，業(yè)績(jī)考核目標(biāo)A≧對(duì)標(biāo)企業(yè)算術(shù)平均增長(zhǎng)率，歸屬比例(X)X=100%，業(yè)績(jī)考核目標(biāo)對(duì)標(biāo)企業(yè)算術(shù)平均增長(zhǎng)率*0.8≦A<對(duì)標(biāo)企業(yè)算術(shù)平均增長(zhǎng)率，歸屬比例(X)X=80%，業(yè)績(jī)考核目標(biāo)A<對(duì)標(biāo)企業(yè)算術(shù)平均增長(zhǎng)率*0.8，歸屬比例(X)0。第三個(gè)歸屬期：2025年，2024年、2025年兩年?duì)I業(yè)收入增長(zhǎng)率累計(jì)值，業(yè)績(jī)考核目標(biāo)A≧對(duì)標(biāo)企業(yè)算術(shù)平均增長(zhǎng)率，歸屬比例(X)X=100%，業(yè)績(jī)考核目標(biāo)對(duì)標(biāo)企業(yè)算術(shù)平均增長(zhǎng)率*0.8≦A<對(duì)標(biāo)企業(yè)算術(shù)平均增長(zhǎng)率，歸屬比例(X)X=80%，業(yè)績(jī)考核目標(biāo)A<對(duì)標(biāo)企業(yè)算術(shù)平均增長(zhǎng)率*0.8，歸屬比例(X)0。第四個(gè)歸、2026年兩年?duì)I業(yè)收入增長(zhǎng)率累計(jì)值，業(yè)績(jī)考核目。。過行股票300773CH拉卡拉2023/6/27實(shí)施上市公司定向發(fā)行股票及上市公司提取激勵(lì)基金買入流通股2335.508.77第一個(gè)解除限售期：2023年凈利潤(rùn)不低于7.00億元；第二個(gè)解除限售期：2023年-2024年兩年的凈利潤(rùn)累計(jì)不低于16.00億元。資料來源：Wind，華泰研究證券代碼公公司狀態(tài)上市/過會(huì)日期市值(億元當(dāng)?shù)刎泿?上市板發(fā)行價(jià)格(元當(dāng)?shù)刎泿?新股發(fā)行數(shù)量(萬(wàn)股)(擬)募資總額(億元當(dāng)?shù)刎泿?主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)688582CHC芯動(dòng)已上市2023-06-30187.4科創(chuàng)板26.745521.0014.76的研發(fā)688629CHC華豐已上市2023-06-27107.04科創(chuàng)板9.266914.896.4光、電連接器及線纜組件的研發(fā)、生產(chǎn)、銷售688620CHC安凱微已上市2023-06-2752.61科創(chuàng)板10.689800.0010.47物聯(lián)網(wǎng)智能硬件核心SoC芯片的研發(fā)、設(shè)計(jì)、終測(cè)和銷售688631CHC萊斯已上市2023-06-2853.23科創(chuàng)板25.284087.0010.33指揮控制技術(shù)為核心的指揮信息系統(tǒng)整體解決方案和系列產(chǎn)品A22680CH視聲智能已過會(huì)2023-06-27北交所1,270.001.50智能家居產(chǎn)品、可視對(duì)講產(chǎn)品、液晶顯示屏及模組A22171CH蘇州天脈已過會(huì)2023-06-26創(chuàng)業(yè)板2892.003.95各類主流被動(dòng)散熱產(chǎn)品A20520CH中遠(yuǎn)通已過會(huì)2023-06-29創(chuàng)業(yè)板7017.542.30通信電源、新能源電源和工控電源的研發(fā)、生產(chǎn)和銷售A22189CH威爾高已過會(huì)2023-06-29創(chuàng)業(yè)板3365.546.01印制電路板的研發(fā)、生產(chǎn)和銷售A21669CH歌爾微已過會(huì)2023-06-27創(chuàng)業(yè)板7937.0031.91精密零組件業(yè)務(wù)、智能聲學(xué)整機(jī)業(yè)務(wù)和智能硬件業(yè)務(wù)資料來源：Wind，華泰研究8%4%0%-4%-8%股市債券貨幣大宗商品注：納斯達(dá)克中概股采用納斯達(dá)克中國(guó)金龍指數(shù)(Wind代碼HXC.O)資料來源：Wind，華泰研究8%4%0%-4%-8%股市債券貨幣大宗商品注：納斯達(dá)克中概股采用納斯達(dá)克中國(guó)金龍指數(shù)(Wind代碼HXC.O)資料來源：Wind，華泰研究100%80%60%40%20% 0%-20%-40%-60%股市債券貨幣大宗商品其它注：納斯達(dá)克中概股采用納斯達(dá)克中國(guó)金龍指數(shù)(Wind代碼HXC.O)；截至6月30日收盤資料來源：Wind，華泰研究小麥計(jì)小麥計(jì)算機(jī)(申萬(wàn))傳媒(申萬(wàn))盧布中國(guó)國(guó)債天然氣人民幣通信(申萬(wàn))比特幣銅滬深300巴西IBOVESPA日元澳元深證成指MSCI新興市場(chǎng)印度盧比俄羅斯MOEX黃金上證指數(shù)恒生指數(shù)創(chuàng)業(yè)板英鎊VIX電子(申萬(wàn))恒生科技英國(guó)富時(shí)100日經(jīng)225原油FAAMNG印度Nifty納斯達(dá)克中概股歐洲STOXX600德國(guó)DAX指數(shù)道瓊斯工業(yè)指數(shù)納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)MSCI發(fā)達(dá)市場(chǎng)指數(shù)標(biāo)普500大豆美國(guó)國(guó)債MSCI全球/資本市場(chǎng)指數(shù)巴黎CAC40費(fèi)城半導(dǎo)體指數(shù)VIX盧布小麥日元原油中國(guó)國(guó)債創(chuàng)業(yè)板恒生科技人民幣恒生指數(shù)美國(guó)國(guó)債納斯達(dá)克中概股滬深300深證成指印度盧比英國(guó)富時(shí)100銅澳元MSCI全球/資本市場(chǎng)指數(shù)MSCI新興市場(chǎng)上證指數(shù)道瓊斯工業(yè)指數(shù)印度Nifty英鎊黃金大豆巴西IBOVESPA電子(申萬(wàn))歐洲STOXX600MSCI發(fā)達(dá)市場(chǎng)指數(shù)巴黎CAC40標(biāo)普500德國(guó)DAX指數(shù)日經(jīng)225計(jì)算機(jī)(申萬(wàn))俄羅斯MOEX納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)傳媒(申萬(wàn))費(fèi)城半導(dǎo)體指數(shù)通信(申萬(wàn))FAAMNG比特幣計(jì)算機(jī)傳媒食品飲料商業(yè)貿(mào)易休閑服務(wù)交通運(yùn)輸通信銀行非銀金融采掘房地產(chǎn)子建筑材料有色金屬綜合建筑裝飾醫(yī)藥生物家用電器汽車農(nóng)林牧漁鋼鐵公用事業(yè)輕工制造化工機(jī)械設(shè)備國(guó)防軍工電氣設(shè)備紡織服裝-8%-7%-6%-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%注：使用申萬(wàn)指數(shù)資料來源：Wind，華泰研究資訊科技業(yè)原材料業(yè)非必需性消費(fèi)綜合企業(yè)金融業(yè)必需性消費(fèi)地產(chǎn)建筑業(yè)能源業(yè)電訊業(yè)工業(yè)醫(yī)療保健業(yè)公用事業(yè) -5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%注：使用港交所行業(yè)分類資料來源：Wind，華泰研究商業(yè)貿(mào)易房地產(chǎn)建筑材料綜合農(nóng)林牧漁食品飲料化工交通運(yùn)輸休閑服務(wù)醫(yī)藥生物鋼鐵電氣設(shè)備有色金屬銀行輕工制造采掘非銀金融紡織服裝汽車公用事業(yè)國(guó)防軍工建筑裝飾子家用電器機(jī)械設(shè)備計(jì)算機(jī)傳媒通信-20%0%20%40%6-20%0%20%40%60%注：使用申萬(wàn)指數(shù)；截至6月30日收盤資料來源：Wind，華泰研究醫(yī)療保健業(yè)地產(chǎn)建筑業(yè)必需性消費(fèi)資訊科技業(yè)工業(yè)非必需性消費(fèi)原材料業(yè)金融業(yè)綜合企業(yè)電訊業(yè)公用事業(yè)能源業(yè)-20%0%10%20%30%-20%0%10%20%30%注：使用港交所行業(yè)分類；截至6月30日收盤資料來源：Wind，華泰研究2020/022020/042020/062020/082020/102020/122021/022021/042021/062021/082021/102021/122022/022022/042022/062022/082022/102022/122023/022023/042023/062020/022020/042020/062020/082020/102020/122021/022021/042021/062021/082021/102021/122022/022022/042022/0622020/022020/042020/062020/082020/102020/122021/022021/042021/062021/082021/102021/122022/022022/042022/062022/082022/102022/122023/022023/042023/062020/022020/042020/062020/082020/102020/122021/022021/042021/062021/082021/102021/122022/022022/042022/062022/082022/102022/122023/022023/042023/06SW電子0.8%SW申萬(wàn)A股成份上證綜合指數(shù)成份深證成指-0.3%2022/012022/022022/032022/042022/052022/062022/072022/082022/092022/102022/112022/122023/012023/022023/032023/042023/052023/06CS半導(dǎo)體 CS光學(xué)光電CS其他電子零組件Ⅱ資料來源：Wind，華泰研究CS元器件CS消費(fèi)電子110%100%90%80%70%60%50%40%資料來源：Wind，華泰研究成交金額(億元人民幣)上證A股8,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,0000上證指數(shù)(右軸)110%100%90%80%70%60%50%SW電子深證成指上證綜合指數(shù)成份SW申萬(wàn)A股成份2022/012022/022022/032022/042022/052022/062022/072022/082022/092022/102022/112022/122023/012023/022023/032023/042023/052023/0600.2%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%資料來源：Wind，華泰研究CS半導(dǎo)體-1.3%CS其他電子零組件Ⅱ-1.0%CS光學(xué)光電CS元器件CS消費(fèi)電子 0%-2%0%3.0%3.7%3.9% 6% 2% 4%資料來源：Wind，華泰研究4,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005000成交金額(億元港幣)全部港股32,00030,00028,00032,00030,00028,00026,00024,00022,00020,00018,00016,00014,000恒生指數(shù)(右軸)2,0001,5001,0005000資料來源：Wind，華泰研究資料來源：Wind，華泰研究(億元人民幣)30,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000P/E(X)A/H手機(jī)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈總市值 中位數(shù)=17 預(yù)測(cè)市盈率(未來12個(gè)月)(中值)35302520502018/062018/082018/102018/122019/022019/042019/062019/082019/102019/122020/022020/042020/062020/082020/102020/122021/022021/042021/062021/082021/102021/122022/022022/042022/062022/082022/102022/122023/022023/042023/06資料來源：Wind，華泰研究P/EP/E(X)35,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,00002018/062018/092018/1222018/062018/092018/122019/032019/062019/092019/122020/032020/062020/092020/122021/032021/062021/092021/122022/032022/062022/092022/122023/032023/06 43 預(yù)測(cè)市盈率(未來12個(gè)月)(中值)90807060504030200資料來源：Wind，華泰研究(億元人民幣)A股通信板塊總市值P/E(X)14,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,0000預(yù)測(cè)市盈率(未來12個(gè)月)(中 值)中位數(shù)=25 454035302520502018/062018/102019/022019/062019/102020/022020/062020/102021/022021/062021/102022/022022/062022/102023/022023/06注：通信板塊剔除三大運(yùn)營(yíng)商資料來源：Wind，華泰研究353025205025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000中位數(shù)=170353025205025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000中位數(shù)=170P/E(P/E(X)A股傳媒板塊總市值(X)預(yù)測(cè)市盈率(未來12個(gè)月)(中值)2018/062018/102019/022019/062019/102020/022020/062020/102021/022021/062021/102022/022022/062022/102023/022023/06資料來源：Wind，華泰研究4%2%0%-2%-4%-6%-8%2023/02/242023