每天讀一點英文那些激勵我前行身影

17andtheWTO：the15—yearMrDavid先生GoodmorningLadiesandGentlemen,Istandbeforeyoutodaywithaconfessiontomake.ItrelatestosomethingthatIdidExactlyonemonthago,IdeliveredaspeechtoanotherAmericanaudience.ItwasagatheringoftheAmericanChamberofCommerceinHongKong.ItalkedaboutHongKong'schangingrole.AndabouthowHongKongcancompeteasit esincreasinglyeasierforforeigncompaniestodobusinessin.業(yè)務越來越容易，所以我也談到了在這種情況下怎樣進行競爭。OnthatdayinMarch,Imadeseveralsuggestions.Oneofwhichwasthatwhentravellingoverseas,ernmentofficialsandbusinesspeoplefromHongKongshouldspendmoretimesellingHongKongtothesceptics.Andlesstimespeakingtotheconverted.ConsequentlyIamheretoday,infrontofadecidedlyHongKong-friendlycrowd,indirectviolationofmyownadvice.Thatsaid,IntoredeemmyselfbynotdevotingtoomuchtimetalkingaboutHongKong-atopicthatiswellknowntothisaudience.的建議既然這么說我打算對自己的話作出補償不用太多的時間談論-這RatherIintendtoconcentrateonthelessknown.Inparticular,theimplicationsof'sentryintotheWTO.TheimplicationsforHongKongandtheimplicationsforforeigncompanies.Inngso,Iamgoingtofocusmytalkonthreedistinctareasofwhatweknowwewhatweknowwedonotknowand我們知道自己還沒有了解的事;還有whatwedonotknowweknow.CommonFirst,whatweknowweknow.Weknowthatmeansdifferentthingstodifferentpeople.Tooverseasmanufacturingfirmsortradingcompaniesitis"thelandofabillionbuyersofshoes,carsandcomputers."Toforeigncompaniesalreadyinitisacethatwarrantsexpansion.Infact,arecentsurveythatnineoutevery10foreigncompaniesoperatingin ntoexpandtheirinvestmentinthenextthreeyears.，對于海外的制造和貿易公司說，十多億鞋子汽車和電腦消費者的國家。對于已的外公司來說這里擴展業(yè)務是所當然的事上最近的一項明運作的每家外國司中有九家計劃未來三年里大投資。，Toforeignfinancialinstitutions-particularlythoseinterestedintheprovisionofwealthmanagementservices-isamarketwithenormouspotential.Afterallitisacountrywiththehighestrateofsavingsinthe對于的金融機構來說-尤其是那些對提供管理服務感的金融機構來說-一個有著巨大潛力的市場。畢竟這是一個有著全世界最高存款率的國家Acountrywherereportedlymorethan80percentofthebankdepositsareheldin20percentoftheaccounts.TomyBankitisourbirthce.Toyouritisa'strategiccompetitor.'，，根據(jù)，超過80%的銀行存款存在20%的賬戶之中。對于我的銀行-匯豐銀行-來說我們的誕生地。對于各位的總統(tǒng)來說'戰(zhàn)略性的競爭對手，，Anotherthingweknowweknowandthisaudienceinparticularknowsisthat'sentryintotheWTOmeanstheroleofHongKongwillinevitablyHongKongwasoncetheonlygatewaytothemarket.AvitallinkbetweenEastandWest.Betweendevelopedandless-developednations.Betweencapitalistandreformingeconomies.Betweenandeverywhereelse.Today,HongKongnolongerholdsthisprivilegedposition.TherealityisthatHongKonghasn'thelditforquitesometime.Longbeforetheinkwasdryon'sWTOagreement,companieswerechoosingtobypassHongKongandgodirectlytoBeijing,Shanghaiandelsewhereinthe.Ofcourse,asignificantnumberofcompanieswerealsostillcomingtoHongKongtotakeadvantageofthecity'sclosegeographic,economic,politicalandculturaltiestothe.Andasyouareawaretheycontinueto，，今天已經(jīng)不再擁有這一特殊地位事實上失去這一地位已經(jīng)有一段時間了。加入WTO之前，各公司早就選擇繞過，直接進入，和中國內地的，，Wealsoknowthatisinthemidstoftwotransitionsatonetime:fromacommandtoamarketeconomyandfromaruraltoanurbansociety.Andweknowthatthecountryfacesanumberofchallenges:allocatingingcapitaleffectively;reformingstate-ownedenterprises;creatingmorejobs;spreadingwealthmoreevenly;reducingbureaucracy;andeliminatingcorruption.Andnow,livinguptothecommitmentsandtheexpectationsofWTOmembershipcanbeaddedtothislist.現(xiàn)在，還可以加上一條：達到WTOFinally,weknowthathaschangedagreatdealinarelativelyshortperiodoftime.ThirtyyearsagoUSRichardNixonandhisnationalsecurityadviserHenryKissingermadeahistoricjourneyto.Theirseven-daytripconcludedwiththesigningoftheShanghaiCommuniqu¨|insidetheGrandHalloftheJinjiangHoinShanghai.Acoupleofweeksago,DrKissingerreturnedtotheJinjiangtodeliveraspeechcommemoratingtheeventsof1972.星期前，博士又來到錦江飯店，紀念1972年的這一。IdonotknowifDrKissingertookthetimetoexplorethesurroundingarea.Ifhedid,hewouldhavepossiblyseenthenearbytheatrethatregularlyysthelatestofferingfromHollywood.HewouldhaveprobablycomeacrosstheAmericanfastfoodoutletsortheItaliandesignerclothingstorejustdowntheblock.Beforecrossingthestreet,hewouldhavelikelyhadtowaitforalineofJapanesecarstopassandperhapseventhebusemblazonedwithalarger-than-lifeWinniethePooh.Andifhestayedoutlateenough,hewouldhaveundoubtedlybeenabletostrollbacktothehounderthecolorfulneonlightsadvertisingGermancellularphones.Inshort,hewouldhavedefiniyseenaverydifferenttodaythantheonehesaw30yearsago. ExistingThesecondareaIwanttofocusoniswhatweknowwedonotknow.Inotherwords,theuncertaintiesrelatedtothefurtheropeningof'sClearly,wedonotknowexactlyhownumerousindustrieswillevolve.Anditisalackofadvancedknowledgethatispromptingmuchspeculation.Intheareaoffinancialservicesforexample,somepredictthatmanyof'sdomesticbankswillhavealimitedlifespanoncethemarketisfullyopenedupinfiveyearstime.ally,Idonotsharethisview.Ithinktheywillbeverystrongcompetitors.Partlybecausetheyareintheadvantageouspositionofknowingthemarketce.Partlybecausetheyhavenationalnetworksthatareimpossible-nottomentionimpractical-tomatch.Andpartlybecausetheyhaveastrongbaseofcustomersandare ingincreasinglymodern.另一部分原因是它們有遍布的網(wǎng)絡，這一點是根本無法匹敵的，更不用說趕上它Considerthe'slargestbank,theIndustrialandCommercialBankof.Itrecentlyannouncedthatithasmorethan10,000corporatesand1.8millionindividualsusingitsonlinebankingservices.ButthemainreasonIthinkdomesticbanksinwillbestrongcompetitors:theyareveryfastlearners.-10,000家企業(yè)Anotherthingweknowwedonotknow-andthisspecificallyrelatestoHongKong-istheindirectbenefitsthatwillflowfromamoreopenmarketinForexample,ifinvestorsareallowedtoinvesttheirforeignexchangeholdingsinHongKong,theSAR'sstockmarketwouldclearlybenefit.HongKong'spositionasafundraisingcentreforcompanieswouldalsobeenhanced.Weknowthisideaisunderconsideration.Wealsoknowwedonotknowwhenitmayhappen.，比如，如果內地的投資者獲準在投資外幣特別行政區(qū)的市場肯定會，Likewise,weknowthatifbanksinHongKongarepermittedtoacceptRMBdeposits,theSAR'sstatusasaninternationalfinancialcentreandastheregionalfinancialcentrewillbeenhancedevenfurther.Onceagainweknowthisideaisbeingconsidered,butwedonotknowwhenitmay，同樣地，我們知道如果的銀行獲準接受存款特別行政區(qū)作為國際金融，Athirdunknown-andonethathasbeengettingconsiderableattentionrecently-istheaccuracyofsomeof'sstatistics.Asyouareundoubtedlyaware,questionshavebeenraisedaboutcertainnumbers.Evenseniorofficialsconcedethatsomedataisflawed.--就是某些關于中國的統(tǒng)Forexample,theheadoftheCentralBankrecentlyconfirmedthatlevelsofnon-performingloansat'sbigstatebanksareinfacthigherthanofficialestimates.However,numbersonlylpartofanystory.WhetheroneagreeswithofficialestimatesofGDPgrowthornot,noonecandenythatisdevelorapidly.Atleastnotanyonewhovisitsonaregularbasis.，比如銀行行長最近證實，中國較大的國有銀行的不良的程度事實上比官，F(xiàn)inally,weknowthatwedonotknowhowwillchangetheWTO.Whatrolewillthecountryyinshafuturetradetalks?Will'spresencepromptothermemberstoaddresstheconcernsofdevelonationsmorereadily?Andhowwillanotherlargeyeratthetableaffectoverallgroup最后，我們知道我們不了解中國會怎樣改變WTO。對于形成未來的貿易，中國會扮演什么樣的角色?中國的加入是否會使其他成員國更愿意關注發(fā)展中國家的問題?桌Onethingthatisclear:theWTOismuchmoreofaglobalbodynowthanitwaspriorto'sentry.Simplyput,noorganizationcanrightlycallitselfglobalifitdoesnotincludetheworld'smostpopulousnation.有一點是非常清楚的：現(xiàn)在WTO比加入之前更成為一個全球性的組織。簡單ForgottenThethirdareaIwanttodiscussiswhatwedonotknowweknow.Atranslationofwhichmightbethethingswealreadyknowbutoftenoverlookoroutrightforget.Forexample,whenitcomestoHongKong,somepeopleseemtothinktheSARwillbesurpassed.Recedifyouwill.ThisdoomsdaygroupseemstoforgetthefactthatmanyofHongKong'sinfrastructuralandinstitutionalattributes-includingits-marketphilosophy,theruleoflawandflowofcapital-areattributeswhichareimpossibleforanyothercityintoreplicateanytimesoon包括它的自由市場的思想，和資本的自由流動-的任何其它城市在短時間Intermsofitself,someexecutivesofsomecompaniesstilldroolovertheprospectsofsellingtheirgoodsorservicestoasinglemarketof1.3billionpeople.13億消費者的市場。Theyseemtooverlookorforgetthefactthatthemarketincludes23provinces,fiveautonomousregions,fourmunicipalitiesdirectlyunderthecentralernment,fivespecialeconomiczones,14opencoastalandbordercities,15exportprocessingareas,14bondedzones,some30provincial-leveleconomicandtechnologicaldevelopmentzonesandmore他們似乎忽略或者忘記了這一事實，中國內地的市場包括23個省，5個，4個3050個新興的高科技發(fā)展區(qū)。至少最近的AndwhilethepreferentialpoliciesofsomeofthesespecialzoneswillgraduallydisappearunderWTO,thecomplexitiesofngbusinessinsuchavastmarketwillnot.Afactwhich-Isubmit-shouldsubdueanyremainingoveractivesalivaryglands.盡管加入WTO以后某些區(qū)域的政策會逐步取消在這樣一個巨大的市場里Finally,therearesomewhoseemtothinkthat'sentryintotheWTOwillprovideanavenuetosolveallfuturetradedisputes.TheyseemtoforgetthattheWTOisoftenusedmoreasaweaponforprotectionismthanasashieldforopenmarkets.WTO會為未來所有的貿易爭端提供解決的方法。他們似乎忘記了WTO經(jīng)常地被用作保護貿易主義的，而不是用作開放市場的盾ally,IthinkwillworkveryhardtoliveuptoitscommitmentsandtooperatewithintherulesoftheWTO.Andiftheyaresmart-andIthinktheyare-theywillalsoseekwaystoexploittherulestothebenefitoftheirownindustries.InotherwordstheywillactmuchlikeeveryothercountryontheWTOmembershiplist.WTO果夠聰明-我認為他們確實如此-他們也會為了本國行業(yè)的利益而尋找可以利用這些規(guī)則的方法換句話說他們的行動會和WTO成員國上的其它國家一樣。Applyingone'sAgainstthisbackdropofknowledge-boththeknownandtheunknown-itisclearthatsomeforeigncompaniesareitchingtogetaccesstothemarket.--很明顯某些外國公司正渴望進入中國Irecallreadingthecommentsofoneexecutivewhosaidhistwomostimportantquestionsaboutare"whichmonth"and"whichday"hiswillgetthenecessaryapprovals.Hewentontosay:"IfIgetfourquestions,thenthethirdquestionwouldbeatwhichhour,andtheatwhichminutewewillgetourlicense."Andjustsoyouknow,youcanallbreatheeasier,hewasnotfromanAmerican!Therealityisthatanyonefocusedsolelyontheshort-termgainsoranyonewhoispronetoimpatienceisdestinedtobedisappointed.islikeanydevelomarket.Ittakestimetobuildabusiness.Profitscannotbemadeovernight.Itisnotaceforforeigncompaniestoimprovenextquarter'sHSBCforitspartisnotatypicalforeigninthe.AsImentionedearlier,ourrootsarein.Wehavehadacontinuouspresenceintheformorethan135years.Ournameisalsowell國。我們內地的業(yè)務從未間斷，已超過了135年。我們的名字也廣為人知。Forexample,onesurveydoneinBeijing,ShanghaiandGuangzhoufoundthatwewerebyfarthemost-recognisedforeignfinancialinstitution.Closeto90percentoftherespondentssaidtheywerefamiliarwiththenameHSBC.Thenextclosestforeignbankscoredinthelow70s.融機構。接近90%的受訪者說他們對匯豐這個名字很熟悉。排在第二位的銀行認70%。Despitethishistoryandthisrecognition,weknowthatwewillnotautomaticallybenefitfromthefurtheropeningof'sfinancialservicessectorunderWTO.Weknowthatwewillhavetoworkveryhardtomaintainourposition.Andweare.WOWehavemovedourheadquarterstoPudonginShanghai.WehavesignedRMBremittancepactswithallfourofthebigstatebanksandwecontinuetoseekwaystoenhanceourco-operationwithdomesticbanks.Onthepeopleside,localisationremainsatoppriority.Already,nineoutofevery10ofourstaffarehiredlocally.90%是在本地招聘的。Recentlywealongwithafewotherforeignbanksweregivenpermissiontoofferforeigncurrencyservicestocitizensandcorporationsinselectcities.InHSBC'scase,weareallowedtooffersuchservicesinthreecities:Beijing,ShanghaiandGuangzhou.LastDecemberwealsopurchasedan8percentequitystakeintheBankofShanghai.Inadditionto ingthefirstforeigncommercialbanktobeallowedtoinvestinadomesticbank,wealsobecame-ineffect-partnerswiththeShanghaiMunicipalernment,themajorshareholderinthebank.Forus,itwasahighandhistoricnoteonwhichtoendtheyear商業(yè)銀行之外，我們也成為-事實上是如此-市的合作伙伴，因為它是Justasanaside,noteveryoneseemstoagreethatourpurchaseofastrategicstakeintheBankofShanghaiwasallthatmomentous.Forexample,insubsequentarticlesheraldingtheprecedent-settingdeal,oneforeignbankerwasquotedassaying:"Mostofthebankshavebeenoffering15percenttothemarket.Ifyouget15percentyoudon'tgetanything."Anotherforeignbankersaidthatourpurchasewas"onlysymbolic"and"withoutanyactualbenefits."Healsosaidthathisbankhadnointerestinacquiringaminoritystakeinanyfinancial例如,在后續(xù)文章中,示著曾經(jīng)的,一個銀行家被引述說:大多數(shù)銀行向市場提供%%,象征性的和有任何實的好處他表示,他的銀沒有收少數(shù)股Iwillnotlyouwhomadetheseratherpessimisticcomments,iffornootherreasonthantohelpbothindividuals'saveface'shouldtheirbankslaterdecidetoreconsider.WhatIwillsayisthatbothworkforourso-called'strategiccompetitors'.Consequently,Iaminclinedtothinktheyweresufferingfromatouchoffermentedfruitsyndrome.Otherwiseknownasacaseofsourgrapes!Ihavespentmuchofmytimethismorningtalkingabouttheimplicationsofanagreementwhichbecameofficialonthe11thofDecember2001.Ialso28thofFebruary1972.20011211日開始正式生效的WTO1972228日簽訂的具有歷史意義的Infact,thereareanumberofstrikingsimilaritiesbetween'sentryintotheWTO