計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)十三講

計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)應(yīng)用實(shí)踐專題計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)，浙江財(cái)經(jīng)學(xué)院經(jīng)貿(mào)學(xué)院，柴志賢本章主要內(nèi)容一、提出問題二、關(guān)于數(shù)據(jù)三、回歸模型的選擇四、處理結(jié)果描述計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)，浙江財(cái)經(jīng)學(xué)院經(jīng)貿(mào)學(xué)院，柴志賢一、提出問題要有明確的分析目標(biāo)，對(duì)你將要估計(jì)的模型進(jìn)行細(xì)致的形式化表述，同時(shí)，評(píng)價(jià)數(shù)據(jù)的可獲得性（切勿隨意地抓一把數(shù)據(jù)過來。）所構(gòu)思的問題應(yīng)該讓人感興趣，并不需要有廣泛的政策內(nèi)涵，只需要能引起部分人的興趣就可以了所研究的領(lǐng)域可以涉及經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、管理學(xué)、社會(huì)學(xué)、教育學(xué)等眾多領(lǐng)域。計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)，浙江財(cái)經(jīng)學(xué)院經(jīng)貿(mào)學(xué)院，柴志賢二夫、析關(guān)犁于患數(shù)扇據(jù)1貞、蓄數(shù)劫據(jù)酸收到集確變定恨采馳用推的皮數(shù)膝據(jù)店類擾型綢（跪橫省截個(gè)面夜、撒時(shí)縮慧間猜序但列晶、協(xié)面價(jià)板呀數(shù)性據(jù)圣）大尊致青確魂定泉有糖關(guān)陜變籮量秤及捷其瓣數(shù)覆據(jù)閉類屑型怨與銳單隨位趟選加擇況。咐（出對(duì)舒于此同學(xué)一轎類槽變右量刻，焦單麗位孩應(yīng)見該葉是欺一派致斬的刻）主耳要血標(biāo)宣識(shí)若缺攔省瞧值呀，縮慧不鐘要捏混叛淆各，靠最仇好腔采愈用聚句清號(hào)屬或陡問遇好乖，觸或院不鉆容列易吩混風(fēng)淆巴的繡數(shù)腦字雖。計(jì)墨量歸經(jīng)笨濟(jì)飯學(xué)朋，虜浙棕江慘財(cái)振經(jīng)饑學(xué)擔(dān)院鹿經(jīng)快貿(mào)笑學(xué)蔽院驗(yàn)，跑柴暑志珍賢二催、法關(guān)故于巷數(shù)晉據(jù)1攀、諸數(shù)輪據(jù)宰收熊集對(duì)訪數(shù)慨據(jù)井集醬合熄中滅可饞能卵遇弦到肉的繡錯(cuò)里誤優(yōu)進(jìn)城行橫檢戰(zhàn)測(cè)出，篩保倉持耕數(shù)餓據(jù)韻的怕完書整哀性防，豆了腐解蒙每城項(xiàng)地?cái)?shù)庸據(jù)煤的寄有獎(jiǎng)關(guān)妹統(tǒng)壩計(jì)削特環(huán)征后。合（飽如蜘樣急本坐中譜教活育猛的匪最托小切值內(nèi)為軟-球9槐9譯，姓則蝴說彼明粘這愧是腿缺澤省繳值歷，察在態(tài)分法析蠟中類應(yīng)我該唐忽俊略鑼這劑些助缺劈燕省濾值晴。對(duì)仰于帖時(shí)訴間奴序萍列尊數(shù)室據(jù)資，媽必最須結(jié)注受意逢時(shí)安間員順程序訂，殿做皂好經(jīng)時(shí)栽間側(cè)標(biāo)鞋記讀。計(jì)創(chuàng)量棗經(jīng)廈濟(jì)澤學(xué)腦，呆浙鞭江英財(cái)倘經(jīng)月學(xué)兔院殖經(jīng)膚貿(mào)參學(xué)倒院學(xué)，碼柴攻志萍賢二忌、價(jià)關(guān)悉于刷數(shù)盜據(jù)2贊、援?dāng)?shù)恨據(jù)姓描對(duì)述對(duì)撿數(shù)半據(jù)掏進(jìn)師行榜詳朗細(xì)唱解型釋毅，兇說轟明濁數(shù)嚴(yán)據(jù)真收礎(chǔ)集腔的叢方險(xiǎn)式云與瘡來盡源莫，辨及勺其飲所柔做考的凝有皺關(guān)乎處哲理拾。亦使裝讀那者賢能嘆獲除得級(jí)相局應(yīng)谷數(shù)槍據(jù)捏，受并超重澆新亮進(jìn)欄行傳分躺析若夕有從問掉卷目，收應(yīng)螺附美在毒后掃面拖；錦其群他奪數(shù)柜據(jù)宋也概須胖包拿括論在個(gè)參苗考擺書逃或熟附移錄幸中列笛出凱變齡量能定游義幻玉表架，廟并良明籍確著變賭量舌單獅位給曬出疲一沾張懸總洽結(jié)零統(tǒng)撇計(jì)億量協(xié)，晉如逢最唱小柔值點(diǎn)、適最鼻大政值煌、錢均濃值槐和怠每躬個(gè)應(yīng)變騾量欲標(biāo)插準(zhǔn)掘差潤的靠表晉格清過楚境地俯表致明犯觀榮察爭值仔的荷個(gè)睜數(shù)出，猴對(duì)象時(shí)林間名序鑄列授數(shù)膛據(jù)超的罷特?fù)P殊歌時(shí)饒期鼓進(jìn)弄行橋描病述杯。計(jì)慨量碗經(jīng)燒濟(jì)夫?qū)W桌，川浙叼江本財(cái)拜經(jīng)客學(xué)駁院世經(jīng)瀉貿(mào)肢學(xué)她院螺，冰柴撤志灘賢三歇、鳴回列歸番模閱型吩的扭選花擇1乏、拉被掩解想釋口變蟲量眼與鵲解效釋特變啊量逮的薪形鼻式粱選妻擇樹。對(duì)它數(shù)亮形牧式劉的跳特易點(diǎn)韻：歪系列數(shù)咬度異量搬了軋變歉化問百吸分制比魯或私彈懂性孔、舌斜銳率史系瓶數(shù)洽不憲隨販測(cè)蓋度饑單碰位腥而俘變逃化謝、攏l菜o律g臭y可（嚷y鑰大攜于學(xué)0桂）邁比才y共的拒水叨平耍值擾的奸?？沸驼娓劢泳嘟艚?jīng)洞典奔假篩設(shè)洞即您條牛件秘分陳布易更捕接令近賴正柄態(tài)蒸分約布湯、薪縮捎小君被府解信釋膽變洞量衫的丟取潤值衰范涌圍營（狹對(duì)蠟異腿常鉛觀沿測(cè)薯并冷不禿敏輕感搭。一示般恭地以，瓶工謎資裕、彎薪窄水丹、濃銷獸售恭額孔、雹人機(jī)口休、越雇途員口數(shù)甩量穴、母學(xué)德校之人狡數(shù)炊都咸具塌有頓大勿的旋正披整往數(shù)五特煌征貪，垂常尾取盛對(duì)極數(shù)譽(yù)形赴式丸。計(jì)拆量后經(jīng)轉(zhuǎn)濟(jì)隙學(xué)呀，憑浙久江話財(cái)飾經(jīng)丸學(xué)墳院崇經(jīng)粥貿(mào)侮學(xué)四院女，循柴檢志滴賢三懷、鮮回正歸襯模鋒型瀉的葡選疊擇1阿、鉗被營解齡釋巨變棒量持與糧解驚釋遞變淹量染的犬形誦式條選突擇糖。一拿般賣地門，分以道年和度季量藥的辜變督量襲（碑如宵教淺育訪年僚數(shù)飾、虹工廚作遺經(jīng)仇歷鋤等寸）址常浮以融原則形俱出榨現(xiàn)絕；播比危例毒或名百眨分錯(cuò)比斑（賴失層業(yè)津率堂等染）迅可珠采避用杠對(duì)也數(shù)軍或盤水充平轎值疏。計(jì)李量弄經(jīng)溪濟(jì)鹽學(xué)熟，溪浙伸江搏財(cái)遇經(jīng)帳學(xué)番院寨經(jīng)著貿(mào)憶學(xué)棄院超，防柴六志率賢三得、焦回饒歸允模昨型鏡的旅選傍擇2賢、備模培型梳的緣瑞選港擇二震次脖函割數(shù)溪：鍵描侵述攜遞宣減蟻或錫遞濟(jì)增眠的企邊巧際逃效猜應(yīng)耳。供（始如饞描凱述息工吐資哀與女工啞作象經(jīng)煉歷柿關(guān)話系煩時(shí)再采洽用握，疫需饞要剃注沖意臨最微高羨點(diǎn)乓，僑若槽這殊個(gè)約轉(zhuǎn)的折軌點(diǎn)牧超攏過并了誤樣屋本幫中級(jí)絕范大桃多拌數(shù)稠人波的裁工其作只經(jīng)予歷更，沾就撲無京須神考繼慮她二聰次滾項(xiàng)恢。耀）含各交仰互束作財(cái)用鞏項(xiàng)損的踐模夏型翠（楚若嗎?？嵝捅恢袃粢粙D個(gè)羊解萍釋摔變艇量弱對(duì)伸被妙解男釋針變根量設(shè)的挺偏立效鈔應(yīng)伐取霸決擠于簡另佩一追解醋釋堪變志量灘，線則害可衡以敏采銅用蹤蝶交膀互死項(xiàng)街。神）計(jì)局量述經(jīng)負(fù)濟(jì)扶學(xué)言，滔浙舒江閑財(cái)受經(jīng)探學(xué)及院鄙經(jīng)狡貿(mào)曲學(xué)例院角，叼柴賺志允賢三冬、誤回閃歸惑模傲型俊的家選堪擇2煩、釘模寬型筑的躲選默擇嵌麗套塞模顫型榜的躍選歌擇飽（中診自斷勒是叨否育存抱在扭一岡組悉不踢相巷關(guān)評(píng)變赴量融）算：前用猛排亂除障性編約吹束宿下恨的旨F傻檢勵(lì)驗(yàn)輸。秘P狡1狼3朝2漏。柜對(duì)岔多朝重領(lǐng)排泛除謝性邊約立束堪進(jìn)惱行汗聯(lián)致合叨假占設(shè)便檢松驗(yàn)納，彼構(gòu)徹造請(qǐng)q蛙個(gè)古排早除辛性徐約庭束收的自F蕩統(tǒng)鈴計(jì)養(yǎng)量甩。慶若勉發(fā)墨現(xiàn)各零訪假戲設(shè)呈是簽正尖確鋤的另，唯即載系譜數(shù)丘都等為粗零洋，忍則百可乖以絲式在貞模坐型芒中鬼排頭除趨這烘些蕉解烘釋伐變子量仔若建拒熱絕母零抱假吐設(shè)訊，邁則往說閣明鐮這避些駝約崖束描中駛有貪些屆變模量阿應(yīng)飾該彩納以入和到萍模月型菌中鳥來哄。（且這闊種聞檢戒驗(yàn)裳對(duì)筑于擱檢洗驗(yàn)州一扇組儲(chǔ)高貍度夠相遲關(guān)網(wǎng)變疲量孫的末排系除紅很犧有士作嫩用尼。灘如早企模業(yè)花業(yè)冒績鴨與鈔經(jīng)菌理漸薪捆水盯，織對(duì)襲業(yè)關(guān)績疑度激量碧可允能斜高換度嘗相鋒關(guān)覺，鬼由飛于支多姐重搜共置線恨性叫，歸難簽以性發(fā)阻現(xiàn)葡單數(shù)個(gè)退有予顯桃著決影臣響簽的伍變予量偷，漫但門F有檢良驗(yàn)良可陡決畝定刮一疲組句業(yè)恩績宜變扶量革是多否甜會(huì)剩影麥響缸薪自水祖）沈讓蜂我先們嘆看幟一露個(gè)此例底子碼。計(jì)轎量此經(jīng)歸濟(jì)恢學(xué)膊，音浙大江凡財(cái)餐經(jīng)診學(xué)焦院悔經(jīng)惹貿(mào)注學(xué)傍院私，律柴約志禮賢三餓、害回寇歸正模束型遷的拾選邀擇2收、覆模娛型角的印選量擇非謠嵌核套享模勒型返的靈選誕擇骨：a貞：固用瘡調(diào)雕整醒的焰R秘平圖方匠進(jìn)達(dá)行忽選取擇香。慮P繡1葡8值6疑。械選估擇棕比庸較殊大保的勾那奸個(gè)夠模梨型注。環(huán)（吩缺屬陷肉：京不瞇能蘆用歇與崖被窮解牽釋帽變執(zhí)量花不古同毛的候兩旬個(gè)供模驕型臨進(jìn)腿行逃檢醒驗(yàn)御。川）b混：漁借女鑒卷排吐除屑性絮約銅束破下瞧的勻F擴(kuò)檢揚(yáng)驗(yàn)碌，屋創(chuàng)皇造讓一態(tài)個(gè)糊包贏含醉兩置個(gè)今非依嵌紹套路模再型稻的介不淚受劫約評(píng)束沈的越一筍般伐復(fù)歲合與模仁型街，殊并呢對(duì)毀這掃個(gè)彎不樓受斷約盟束儲(chǔ)模窩型硬進(jìn)廉行烈F勝檢暑驗(yàn)賴，輔方?jīng)龇êc余上客面催類諒似污。c匯：恰D懼a逢v銅i崖d鮮s蓋o秀n諒-揪M路a桑c腳k席i閱n繁n踏o塊n達(dá)檢算驗(yàn)虛。默P才2吉7復(fù)2拳。倍對(duì)丑于換兩建個(gè)即比桂較投的繡模蒸型彼，漲將水a(chǎn)彈模準(zhǔn)型菠的蜓擬肢合租值艙添體加動(dòng)到細(xì)b鼠模錫型癢，描檢乒驗(yàn)槳其鄭系統(tǒng)數(shù)滲的蝕統(tǒng)投計(jì)撲顯紋著掉性捧，吧若冒拒訴絕樹，風(fēng)則摟說希明茄b顆模殘型儉誤束設(shè)濫。計(jì)霞量帖經(jīng)瞇濟(jì)拾學(xué)峽，齊浙偶江度財(cái)永經(jīng)填學(xué)語院葉經(jīng)索貿(mào)摩學(xué)窗院基，枯柴包志菌賢三角、究回舊歸倘模潔型良的錦選就擇3歲、巨增歌加麗解淚釋勸變疫量順（稅對(duì)掏研膏究枕對(duì)纖象悲不糖很突清叔楚陽，旺缺士乏此熟奇練間的塌理押論漫指賤導(dǎo)盜時(shí)匠容揭易怒發(fā)戴生亦大元雜掃燴位式優(yōu)的念過場(chǎng)度極擬購合茄）好押處彎：用隨鴉機(jī)燙誤漲差真項(xiàng)潛的盆總視誤承差濟(jì)方還差灣會(huì)癢減煌少歡，米擬暈合耀優(yōu)盡度夕提門高桂；壞誘處然：純解追釋狠起旬來崖更雙加只麻相煩去，索導(dǎo)竟致模多帥重賤共爛線鐵性雀加趨劇軌，賽估昌計(jì)假系梢數(shù)美的違方容差榮會(huì)鞋變絕大長，甜置支信厲區(qū)杯間父變堂寬蔥，其對(duì)晨真爐實(shí)顛參乳數(shù)志的貓假擁設(shè)朵檢戒驗(yàn)悔不開準(zhǔn)奮確戚。用儉s叨t窩e棍p舞w殊i策s纖e能的職方勝法址應(yīng)命該嗓慎懶重膀。計(jì)川量持經(jīng)刊濟(jì)糖學(xué)脊，稀浙敘江些財(cái)劑經(jīng)翠學(xué)格院麗經(jīng)身貿(mào)嘩學(xué)武院歇，攝柴膽志弓賢三博、淚回礦歸映模志型雀的戒選攜擇4京、術(shù)遺途漏腫解胡釋著變炸量若投被煩遺蘆漏舟變之量絨與拒解非釋毀變攻量擁無港關(guān)劈燕。糞現(xiàn)勁有質(zhì)估述計(jì)笨量代是超無箭偏驗(yàn)而黎且紗一川致俯的若酸被優(yōu)遺京漏墳變周量撈與徒解稈釋吐變淘量出有場(chǎng)關(guān)未。找現(xiàn)經(jīng)有漢估位計(jì)首量埋是氣有冶偏秘而儉且笑不訪一列致犁的淺，袖無迎論寧樣攝本企容架量噸多液大抗，鐵偏填差禽都習(xí)不紐奉消陡失維。誤晌差劈燕方景差犧是堵真老實(shí)癥誤世差幼方像差率的盡有辮偏森估掘計(jì)哪量垮；里估蠟計(jì)巴量蒜方獸差警也時(shí)是孕真旱實(shí)瓣估寒計(jì)究量詠方歷差曉的拴有平偏龍估惹計(jì)殼量咐；貪置筆信兄區(qū)蘭間店與慰假堅(jiān)設(shè)廟檢剖驗(yàn)槐不脫再并可累靠梳。計(jì)熟量獅經(jīng)震濟(jì)盈學(xué)惹，裕浙攀江授財(cái)誰經(jīng)必學(xué)灑院匙經(jīng)菊貿(mào)蠶學(xué)順院遼，黨柴均志榜賢三潔、恥回郊?xì)w橫模價(jià)型浸的晚選勢(shì)擇5失、手函圾數(shù)父形關(guān)式輩誤徹設(shè)選的匠一焦般攔性生檢欺驗(yàn)羊：杰R逃E場(chǎng)S嶄E勢(shì)TP立2崖7席0隨。債在雀待歲診恭斷傭的菠回蜓歸筆函蟻數(shù)厘中換添絲式加枝擬愁合柏值氣的驚平萄方謝項(xiàng)睬和晃三旋次最項(xiàng)杏。孝然痕后柿檢團(tuán)驗(yàn)岡約蘋束昨下滑的窮多斥重牢假討設(shè)妖檢幅驗(yàn)礙，棕與治前給面膝的申F戚檢殖驗(yàn)畜類磨似霜。掌（逆其注中感，繩分優(yōu)子路自辟由榴度羅是迷2麗，浸分真母嶼自蹈由蓋度猾是縣n較-尚k毫-撞1魯-隊(duì)2厘）仆。援若笛接測(cè)受姓零白假品設(shè)任，堅(jiān)意喘味扔著潮添爛加遮項(xiàng)憐系奸數(shù)肥不挺顯棗著孩，謊從磨而堡原乎模蝴型僻是炊正膚確餓設(shè)幻玉定蓮的檔。不難足喬：超當(dāng)賺拒虛絕慰零方假慚設(shè)經(jīng)，餡即移判晚斷丟模僻型孟設(shè)恐定自有櫻誤在時(shí)偶，鋒不陣能鞭提統(tǒng)供移改白進(jìn)目的碎方狂向牲。權(quán)而怎且撥，堪如呼果寸遺牧漏巖變揭量斧是域線蠻性殺特輸征透時(shí)艦，坑無司法印診門斷澡出堵來津。計(jì)僅量何經(jīng)扣濟(jì)剪學(xué)蜻，治浙護(hù)江春財(cái)伏經(jīng)刪學(xué)某院否經(jīng)腳貿(mào)真學(xué)勻院浙，木柴位志突賢在某商萬品料進(jìn)宅口爽回島歸瞇中柿,紡估替計(jì)訓(xùn)了扶中禮國督商盤品改進(jìn)椅口吸M候與鐵G梯D柏P律的衛(wèi)關(guān)淋系擋，烏并赴發(fā)掘現(xiàn)勺具堂有踐強(qiáng)映烈資的騎一狹階敬自氧相約關(guān)彈性崖。然躲而錢，程由法于個(gè)僅回用行G撕D染P揮來述解盼釋改商貨品殺進(jìn)?？诠~的悅變暴化匠，宰明倉顯劈燕地堅(jiān)遺娛漏呢了靈諸哭如蠻商包品桶進(jìn)綁口暈價(jià)艘格誕、臣匯涂率晨等麥其版他凡影嚼響其因草素釘。批因慨此蹤蝶，通序矮列納相嫌關(guān)每性栽的奏主遍要高原捆因獵可煩能緣瑞就絞是動(dòng)建玻模惜時(shí)董遺雹漏板了踢重長要腹的召相南關(guān)橋變揚(yáng)量襪造償成帝的瞧。下趁面澡進(jìn)譯行補(bǔ)R平E因S發(fā)E色T頃檢聲驗(yàn)勾。用津原惹回專歸懲模辜型偉估另計(jì)屈出驕商抹品渣進(jìn)殘口咬序陣列R2=肢0艘.釣9巖4流8車4應(yīng)亮用往實(shí)攏例計(jì)融量宿經(jīng)歉濟(jì)英學(xué)俊，張浙直江聽財(cái)設(shè)經(jīng)傘學(xué)嚇院姓經(jīng)遣貿(mào)墾學(xué)喚院任，果柴狹志徑賢（蓄-側(cè)0蔬.持0哈8目5尼）嘴（拐8夫.換2留7撕4撇）際（鋼-誕6餡.翁4除5喬7準(zhǔn)）鼠（驢6茶.借6拼9瀉2攻）R2=浩0喜.浪9貍8媽4鎮(zhèn)2在義陰=驚5飼%規(guī)下泥，辦查蒼得弄臨趴界議值練F0隸.夕0帥5(很2碗,渠2應(yīng)0波)炎=醋3騾.肢4若9判比斷旁：稈拒設(shè)絕社原姑模顫型退與論引萍入身新煉變驢量糾的固模殼型揀可霉決棒系終數(shù)荒無膊顯繼著挨差源異摩的理假鉆設(shè)淋，炊表棍明寄原稻模筑型舍確嬸實(shí)格存宿在仔遺滾漏蹲相么關(guān)暴變宗量較的扯設(shè)識(shí)定尼偏飯誤酷。計(jì)都量芝經(jīng)盛濟(jì)鍋學(xué)啊，浸浙慶江訂財(cái)辯經(jīng)均學(xué)毀院儀經(jīng)墨貿(mào)桶學(xué)柏院喂，窗柴蘭志半賢三鞋、候回瓣歸掠模立型暮的愚選政擇6摔、搭診地?cái)喙仁菄L否阻存晚在搞異里方瓣差淹（床截千面塘數(shù)邪據(jù)滾）固或擱自閑相植關(guān)半（死序拘列勵(lì)數(shù)鐵據(jù)簽）并毀采悔用桃廣覽義嬌最落小凳二展乘淋法鞏對(duì)墳?zāi)Ｑ偷苓M(jìn)比行漆變嚇換冤。計(jì)喉量辨經(jīng)百濟(jì)縣學(xué)培，臺(tái)浙離江帝財(cái)籃經(jīng)役學(xué)概院匹經(jīng)蠢貿(mào)焦學(xué)匪院鍬，準(zhǔn)柴鵲志瓦賢四羨、繭處言理突結(jié)留果勒描炭述應(yīng)拳包饅括失任塔何待模壤型寧的板估恰計(jì)翁，漸可較從凱易受到候