城鄉(xiāng)移民課件

發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)VI農(nóng)村與城市城鄉(xiāng)移民農(nóng)村與城市，城鄉(xiāng)移民二元經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)差別劉易斯模型拉尼斯-費(fèi)模型城鄉(xiāng)人口遷移哈里斯-托達(dá)羅模型城鄉(xiāng)發(fā)展的政策含義1.二元經(jīng)濟(jì)1.1發(fā)展中國家的結(jié)構(gòu)特征農(nóng)村部門與城市部門的區(qū)別城市的正式和非正式部門農(nóng)業(yè)一個(gè)龐大的非正式部門1.2劉易斯模型I傳統(tǒng)和現(xiàn)代部門的共存?zhèn)鹘y(tǒng)部門（農(nóng)業(yè)）的剩余勞動(dòng)力（印度）剩余勞動(dòng)力的低成本轉(zhuǎn)移（圖）收入的分享與剩余勞動(dòng)力（非農(nóng)部門）*現(xiàn)代部門的產(chǎn)量和就業(yè)增長模型（圖）圖：剩余勞動(dòng)力圖：劉易斯模型D1D3D2實(shí)際工資勞動(dòng)數(shù)量FGHWAOL1L2L3LsD1(K1)D2(K2)D3(K3)K3>K2>K1SS’1.2劉易斯模型II發(fā)展中國家經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的兩個(gè)階段模型評價(jià)與批判現(xiàn)代部門的投資與就業(yè)城市中的高失業(yè)率勞動(dòng)力市場不是完全競爭，工資呈上升趨勢1.3拉尼斯-費(fèi)模型I剩余勞動(dòng)力概念的擴(kuò)展隱蔽失業(yè)：邊際產(chǎn)出低于工資的勞動(dòng)力剩余勞動(dòng)力與剩余勞動(dòng)為保證農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)量，在勞動(dòng)力轉(zhuǎn)移后，留在農(nóng)業(yè)勞力的勞動(dòng)投入增加。勞動(dòng)補(bǔ)償取決于勞動(dòng)力的邊際成本。恒定的邊際成本隨努力程度遞增的邊際成本（圖）圖:過剩勞動(dòng)與過剩勞動(dòng)力1.3拉尼斯-費(fèi)模型II勞動(dòng)力轉(zhuǎn)移的三個(gè)階段剩余勞動(dòng)力隱蔽性失業(yè)農(nóng)業(yè)商業(yè)化農(nóng)業(yè)剩余的變化現(xiàn)代工業(yè)勞動(dòng)力供求變化圖：農(nóng)業(yè)勞動(dòng)力與農(nóng)業(yè)剩余平均農(nóng)業(yè)剩余農(nóng)業(yè)部門勞動(dòng)力不變剩余剩余勞動(dòng)力產(chǎn)出平均剩余下降的剩余下降的剩余隱蔽失業(yè)商業(yè)化工資農(nóng)業(yè)產(chǎn)出圖：農(nóng)業(yè)勞動(dòng)力與工業(yè)部門勞動(dòng)力工業(yè)部門工資勞動(dòng)力需求曲線無限供給勞動(dòng)力供給曲線第一個(gè)轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)第二個(gè)轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)工業(yè)部門勞動(dòng)力XYZZ’1.3拉尼斯-費(fèi)模型III政策影響農(nóng)業(yè)稅收勞動(dòng)力轉(zhuǎn)移，農(nóng)業(yè)工資和稅收短期與長期作用（前蘇聯(lián)）農(nóng)業(yè)價(jià)格政策收購價(jià)格投入品補(bǔ)貼匯率政策例子（前蘇聯(lián)和中國的對比）2.農(nóng)村-城市人口流動(dòng)哈里斯-托達(dá)羅模型城市正式部門的工資高工會組織法律要求最低工資，退休金，失業(yè)補(bǔ)助效率工資非正式部門和農(nóng)村低工資2.1基本模型：靈活工資2.2引入工資剛性I2.2引入工資剛性II:失業(yè)和非正式部門2.2引入工資剛性II:失業(yè)和非正式部門2.3哈里斯-托達(dá)羅均衡I正式部門工作的概率：p=LF/(LF+LI)均衡條件：事前沒偏好，事后有偏好三個(gè)部門的特定分配，預(yù)期概率內(nèi)生城市、農(nóng)村內(nèi)部部門的擴(kuò)展2.3哈里斯-托達(dá)羅均衡II2.4政策影響I:增加正式部門的就業(yè)均衡的內(nèi)生性正式部門就業(yè)概率上升遷移預(yù)期收入上升，引發(fā)移民農(nóng)業(yè)工資上升，城市預(yù)期工資下降新的均衡：新的預(yù)期工資上升,滿足以下條件：非正式部門在總城市部門就業(yè)比重下降，但總規(guī)?？赡苌仙?，政策相反的效果。2.4政策影響II:移民限制2.4政策影響II:對城市正式部門雇主的補(bǔ)貼2.4政策影響III:以上兩種政策混合使用達(dá)到均衡2.4政策影響IV:城市與農(nóng)村的統(tǒng)一補(bǔ)貼LfLaww-sw-swaLfLawW*s2.4政策影響V:過度補(bǔ)貼下的均衡2.5托達(dá)羅模型的基本特征促進(jìn)人口流動(dòng)的基本力量是相對收益和成本，既有經(jīng)濟(jì)因素也有心理因素遷移取決于預(yù)期城鄉(xiāng)工資差異（概率）城市就業(yè)機(jī)會與就業(yè)率成正比，與失業(yè)率成反比。人口流動(dòng)可能超過城市工作機(jī)會增長2.6托達(dá)羅模型的政策含義減少因偏重城市而引起的城鄉(xiāng)就業(yè)不平衡創(chuàng)造城市就業(yè)不足以解決城市失業(yè)問題適當(dāng)控制工資補(bǔ)貼和政府人員數(shù)量。關(guān)注農(nóng)村的發(fā)展2.7模型的擴(kuò)展風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡（圖）風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡與人口流動(dòng)社會資本和人口流動(dòng)各種形式的社保，保險(xiǎn)，緊急貸款等比較完全的信息與較低的流動(dòng)性人口流動(dòng)與家庭為單位的決策移民關(guān)系網(wǎng)社會地位落差圖：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡6中國城鄉(xiāng)收入比較（1978-2003）GrowthofRealPerCapitaHouseholdIncome

農(nóng)村凈收入

城鎮(zhèn)可支配收入IncomeinConstant2004Prices(RMB)

城鄉(xiāng)比率

1978(About500)

1,7013.4

19851,343

2,7282.0

19911,585

3,6122.3

20042,936

9,4223.2

AverageAnnualGrowthRate(percent)

1978-1985(About15%)

7.0%

1985-19912.8%

4.8%

1991-20044.9%

7.7%

In2004,oneRMBwasworth$0.12attheofficialexchangerate,or$0.55atPPP.

城鄉(xiāng)收入差距城鄉(xiāng)移民與城市化Source:BarryNaughton,TheChineseEconomy,Figure5.1onpage127,2007.GoodInfrastructureandRelaxationonLabourMobilityCreatedProbablytheGreatestWavesofRural-UrbanMigrationintheWorld’sHistorySource:BarryNaughton,TheChineseEconomy,Figure5.2onpage130,2007.中國城市化率1978-2003幾組國家城市化率的比較RuralReformReleasedRuralSurplusLabourandMadeItPossiblefortheDeclineofAgriculturalEmploymentfrom70%in1978to40%in2007Source:BarryNaughton,TheChineseEconomy,Figure6.3onpage151,2007.BoomingNon-StateSectorintheCitiesAbsorbedMassiveRuralSurplusLabourSource:BarryNaughton,TheChineseEconomy,Figure8.3onpage190,2007.關(guān)于移民的研究移民決策的影響因素經(jīng)濟(jì)因素制度因素風(fēng)險(xiǎn)（事先）環(huán)境移民的作用收入，remittance保險(xiǎn)作用（事后）關(guān)于城鄉(xiāng)移民研究的部分文獻(xiàn)Climaticchangeandrural–urbanmigration:Thecaseofsub-SaharanAfrica,JournalofUrbanEconomics，Availableonline5June2006,SalvadorBarrios,LuisitoBertinelliandEricStroblForeigncapital,welfareandurbanunemploymentinthepresenceofagriculturaldualism,JapanandtheWorldEconomy,Availableonline10October2005,SarbajitChaudhuri

Chapter24UrbanizationandGrowth,HandbookofEconomicGrowth,Volume1,Part2,2005,Pages1543-1591,J.VernonHenderson

Rural–urbanmigrationandagriculturalproductivity:thecaseofSenegal,AgriculturalEconomics,Volume31,Issue1,July2004,Pages33-45,PeterD.Goldsmith,KisanGunjalandBarnabéNdarishikanye

Development—ThereisAnotherWay:ARural–UrbanPartnershipDevelopmentParadigm,WorldDevelopment,Volume29,Issue8,August2001,Pages1443-1454,T.ScarlettEpsteinDavidJezeph

Rural-urbanmigation,informalsectoranddevelopmentpoliciesAtheoreticalanalysis,JournalofDevelopmentEconomics,Volume41,Issue1,June1993,Pages137-151,ManashRanjanGupta

Populationpressure,intensificationofagriculture,andrural-urbanmigration,JournalofDevelopmentEconomics,Volume40,Issue2,April1993,Pages371-384,DjavadSalehi-Isfahani

關(guān)于中國城鄉(xiāng)移民研究的部分文獻(xiàn)HowmigrationrestrictionslimitagglomerationandproductivityinChina,JournalofDevelopmentEconomics,Volume80,Issue2,August2006,Pages350-388,Chun-ChungAuandJ.VernonHenderson

TheparadoxofChina'sgrowingunder-urbanization,EconomicSystems,Volume30,Issue1,March2006,Pages24-40,GeneHsinChangandJosefC.Brada

Rural–urbanmigrationandwagedetermination:ThecaseofTianjin,China,ChinaEconomicReview,Volume17,Issue3,2006,Pages337-345,ZhigangLUandShunfengSONG

IntermigrationandintramigrationinChina:Atheoreticalandempiricalanalysis,ChinaEconomicReview,Volume14,Issue4,2003,Pages371-385,ZhongminWUandShujieYAO

Rural–urbanmigrationandurbanizationinChina:Evidencefromtime-seriesandcross-sectionanalyses,ChinaEconomicReview,Volume14,Issue4,2003,Pages386-400,KevinHonglinZHANGandShunfengSONG

Trade,rural–urbanmigration,andregionalincomedisparityindevelopingcountries:aspatialgeneralequilibriummodelinspiredbythecaseofChina,RegionalScienceandUrbanEconomics,Volume32,Issue3,May2002,Pages311-338,DapengHu

TheTwo-TierLaborMarketinUrbanChina:OccupationalSegregationandWageDifferentialsbetweenUrbanResidentsandRuralMigrantsinShanghai,JournalofComparativeEconomics,Volume29