中國經(jīng)濟(jì)半年度展望

目錄Content摘要ABSTRACT 1回顧Review 3策Policy 4資Investment 6費(fèi)Consumption 12口Export 15GDPGrossDomesticProduct 16免責(zé)明 19Disclaimer 20回顧Review一季度中國經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)好于預(yù)期，但二季度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長動能明顯減弱。一季度經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)較好主要因為積壓需求的釋放。二季度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長動能減弱有三個原因。Chinaeconomyrecoveredbetterthanexpectedin2023Q1,butthegrowthsloweddownin2023Q2,excludingthebaseeffect.Thebetter-than-expectedeconomicperformancein2023Q1wasmainlyduetothereleaseofbacklogdemand.Therearethreereasonsfortheslowdownofeconomicgrowthin2023Q2.42.8%8%的水平。Firstly,thereleaseofbacklogdemandhassignificantlydecreased.Thebacklogdemandforconsumptionandcommercialhousingsaleswasmostlyreleasedin2023Q1,andthebacklogofexportdemandwasreleasedfullybyApril.Secondly,weakenedrealestateexpectationsuppressedthesalesofcommercialbuildingsandtheinvestmentinrealestatedevelopment.Finally,therecoveryofconsumerconfidenceremainsslow.Thetwo-yearaveragegrowthrateofthetotalretailsalesofconsumergoodswasonly2.8%in2023Q2,farlowerthanthegrowthrateof8%beforeCOVIDpandemic.政策Policy7245%左右的GDP增長目標(biāo)。OnJuly24,thePoliticalBureauoftheCommunistPartyofChina(CPC)CentralCommitteeheldameetingtoanalyzethecurrenteconomicsituationandplanforeconomicworkforthesecondhalfof2023.Basedonourunderstanding,thegovernmentwillmakeeffortstoactivelyexpanddomesticdemandin2023H2andtoachieveanannualGDPgrowthtargetofaround5%.的發(fā)展韌性和潛力，長期向好的基本面沒有改變。ThepolitburomeetingpointedoutthatChina'seconomyisfacingnewdifficultiesandchallenges,whichmainlyarisefrominsufficientdomesticdemand,difficultiesintheoperationofsomeenterprises,risksandhiddendangersinkeyareas,aswellasagrimandcomplexexternalenvironment.Chinaeconomyhasenormousdevelopmentresilienceandpotential,andpositivefundamentalshavenotchangedinthelongterm.會議要求，精準(zhǔn)有力實施宏觀調(diào)控，加強(qiáng)逆周期調(diào)節(jié)和政策儲備。這意味著，如果國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)不能穩(wěn)住，還會有進(jìn)一步的穩(wěn)經(jīng)濟(jì)措施出臺。Themeetingcalledforcarryingoutmacroeconomicregulationwithprecisionandforce,strengtheningcounter-cyclicalmeasures,andmakingmorepolicyoptionsavailable,indicatingthatmorepoliciesaimtostabilizetheeconomywillbeintroducedifthedomesticeconomycannotimprove.這意味著經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展不會重走老路，不會過度GDP同比增長%左右。Themeetingalsocalledfortheimplementationofthenewdevelopmentconcept,whichmeansthateconomicdevelopmentwillnotbethesamewayasitwas,willnotexcessivelyborrowforconstruction,andwillnotexcessivelystimulateconsumption.Thepolicygoalistopromotetheeffectiveimprovementofqualityandreasonablegrowthofquantityintheeconomy,withGDPincreasingbyabout5.0%投資方面，政治局會議要求“更好發(fā)揮政府投資帶動作用，加快地方政府專項債券Themeetingnecessitatedeffortstoactivelyexpanddomesticdemand.Intermsofconsumption,themeetingmentionedthat“consumptionofmajoritemsincludingautomobiles,electronicproductsandhouseholditemsshouldbeboosted”.Relevantpolicieshavebeenreleasedrecently.Intermsofinvestment,themeetingdemandedthatgovernmentinvestmentshouldbetterplaytheroleofdrivingoverallinvestment,withfasterissuanceanduseoflocalgovernmentspecial-purposebonds.Themeetingalsodemandedthatmorepoliciesshouldbeformulatedandrolledouttospurprivateinvestment,andthesepoliceshavebeenreleased.這意味著大中城從而防范房地產(chǎn)炒作。政策的目標(biāo)是促進(jìn)房地產(chǎn)市場平穩(wěn)健康發(fā)展。Intermsofrealestate,themeetingdemandedthatreal-estatepoliciesshouldbeadjustedandoptimizedinatimelymanner,whichmeansrelativelytightpoliciessuchaspurchaserestrictionsandloanrestrictionsinlargeandmedium-sizedcitiesinChinawillbeappropriatelyrelaxed.However,therelaxationofpoliciesmaynotbefullyimplementedallatoncetopreventrealestatespeculation.Thepolicyobjectiveistoadvancethestableandsounddevelopmentoftherealestatemarket.Investment6月增速已企穩(wěn)回升3.0%2.16月固定資產(chǎn)投資增速已經(jīng)51.3個百分點(diǎn)。ChinafixedassetinvestmentgrewatarelativelyslowpaceinQ2,butthegrowthratereboundedinJune.Theinvestmentinfixedassetsgrewby+3.0%YoYinQ2,2.1%lowerthanQ1.However,itreboundedinJune,withitsYoYandtwo-yearaveragegrowthratesbothincreasingby+1.3%comparedwithMay.圖表1：固定資產(chǎn)投資當(dāng)月同比(,21年為兩年平均增速)ChinamonthlyfixedassetinvestmentgrowthYoY(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021)

圖表2：固定資產(chǎn)投資當(dāng)月同比(21與23年為兩年平均增速)ChinamonthlyfixedassetinvestmentgrowthYoY(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021and2023)固定資產(chǎn)投資 房地產(chǎn) 基建 制造業(yè) 固定資產(chǎn)投資 房地產(chǎn) 基建 制造業(yè)FixedAssetInvestment RealEstateInfrastructureManufacturing2520151050-5-10-15-20

FixedAsset2520151050-5-10-15-20

RealEstateInfrastructure

ManufacturingDec-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21Jun-22Dec-22Jun-23

Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21Jun-22Dec-22Jun-23資料來源：萬得中信期貨研究所Sources:,CITICSF 資料來源：萬得中信期貨研究所Sources:,CITICSF房地產(chǎn)投資Realestateinvestment中國房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)調(diào)整已經(jīng)較為充分，進(jìn)一步下行空間并不大。2021年下半年22022年下半年疫12019年同期的增速大體呈現(xiàn)筑底特征。因此，房地產(chǎn)進(jìn)一步下行空間不大。TheadjustmentofChina'srealestateindustryhasbeenrelativelysufficient,andfurtherdownwardspaceislimited.Since2021H2,therealestateindustryhasexperiencedatwo-yearretreat,whichwasrelativelysufficientfromtheperspectiveoftime.Theresidents'willingnesstopurchasehouseswassignificantlysuppressedbytheepidemicin2022H2,whichmeansthattheinvestmentandspeculativedemandforcommercialhousingshouldhavebeenfullysqueezedout.Thegrowthratesofthefloorspaceofcommercialbuildingssoldandnewlystartedhasgenerallyshownabottomingoutfeature,comparedwiththesameperiodof2019.Thereisnotmuchroomforfurtherdeclineinrealestateindustry.圖表3(,2021RealEstateIndicatorsinasinglemonthYoY(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021)

圖表4：房地產(chǎn)相關(guān)指標(biāo)當(dāng)月值相對于2019年同期的增()ChangeratesofRealEstateIndicatorsinasinglemonthcomparedtothesameperiodin2019,FloorspaceofbuildingssoldYoYFloorspaceofbuildingsnewlystartedYoYInvestmentinrealestatedevelopmentYoY

Growthrateoffloorspacesold(comparedto2019)Growthrateoffloorspacenewlystarted(comparedto2019)Growthrateofrealestateinvestment(comparedto2019)20100-10-20-30-40-50Feb-19Sep-19Apr-20Nov-20Jun-21Jan-22Aug-22Mar-23

3020100-10-20-30-40-50-60-70Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-22 Aug-22 Feb-23資料來源：萬得中信期貨研究所Sources:,CITICSF 資料來源：萬得中信期貨研究所Sources:,CITICSF近期居民購房觀望情緒濃厚以及二手房供應(yīng)增加使得新房銷售面臨一些下行的壓力730二手房分流了一些新房需求。這兩個因素使得短期新房銷售面臨一些下行壓力。Thestrongwait-and-seesentimentamongresidentsinpurchasinghouses,andtheincreaseinsupplyofsecond-handhousinghaveputsomedownwardpressureonnewhousingsales.Sincethefloorspaceofcommercialbuildingssoldin30majorcitieshasfurtherdeclined.Therearetworeasonsforthis.Firstly,thedeclineinhousingpriceshasledtoastrongwait-and-seesentimentamongresidentswhenpurchasinghouses.Secondly,weakenedexpectationsofhousingpriceshasledtoanincreaseinthesupplyofsecond-handhousing,whichhasdivertedsomedemandfornewhousing.Thesefactorshaveputsomedownwardpressureontheshort-termnewhousingsales.圖表5：30大中城市每日商品房成交面積:MA7（萬平方米）Floorspaceofcommercialbuildingssoldin30majorcities(7-daymeanaverage,10,000squaremeters)

圖表6：70個大中城市二手住宅價格比()70MajorCitiesSecond-HandHousingPricesMoM1009080706050403020100

2023 2022 2020 2019

1.51.00.50.0-0.5-1.0

70城 一線 二線 三線70Cities Tier1 Tier2 Tier3J F M A M J J A S O N D Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23資料來源：萬得中信期貨研究所Sources:,CITICSF 資料來源：萬得中信期貨研究所Sources:,CITICSF710724Thestrengtheningpolicysupportisexpectedtorelievedownwardpressureonrealestate,andtherealestateinvestmentmaybottomoutin2023H2.OnJuly10th,ThePeople'sBankofChinaandtheStateAdministrationofFinancialRegulationannouncedtheextensionofthepolicyperiodrelatedtofinancialsupportforthestableandhealthydevelopmentoftherealestateindustry,whichhelpsmaintainthestabilityofrealestatedevelopers'cashflow.OnJuly24th,thePolitburomeetingdemandedthatreal-estatepoliciesshouldbeadjustedandoptimizedinatimelymanner,whichmeansrelativelytightpoliciessuchaspurchaserestrictionsandloanrestrictionsinlargeandmedium-sizedcitieswillbeappropriatelyrelaxed.Withpolicysupport,thefloorspaceofcommercialbuildingssoldandtheinvestmentinrealestatedevelopmentisexpectedtobottomoutin2023H2.基建投資Infrastructureinvestment由于穩(wěn)增長力度加大，預(yù)計下半年基建投資增長將有所加快投資比長10.7增速較建資要于穩(wěn)長據(jù)7Infrastructureinvestmentisexpectedtoacceleratein2023H2duetothestrengtheningpolicysupport.In2023H1,accumulatedinfrastructureinvestmentincreasedby+10.7%whichwasatarelativelyhighlevel.Thegrowthrateofinfrastructureinvestmentmainlydependsontheeffortstostabilizetheeconomy.AccordingtothespiritofthePolitburomeeting,moreeffortswillbemadetostabilizetheeconomyin2023H2,withfasterissuanceanduseoflocalgovernmentspecial-purposebondsandgovernmentinvestmentplayagreaterrole.Therefore,thegrowthofInfrastructureinvestmentisexpectedtospeedup.圖表7(，2021InfrastructureInvestmentYoY(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021)

圖表8：新增專項債累計發(fā)行規(guī)模(億元)Currentyearcumulativeissuanceamountofnewlyaddedlocalgovernmentspecial-purposebonds,100millionyuan20151050-5-10-15-20-25-30

CurrentyearcumulativeInfrastructureInvestmentYoYInfrastructureInvestmentinasinglemonthYoY

450004000035000300002500020000150001000050000

2023 2022 2021Dec-18Jul-19Feb-20Sep-20Apr-21Nov-21Jun-22Jan-23

J F M A M J J A S O N D資料來源：萬得中信期貨研究所Sources:,CITICSF 資料來源：萬得中信期貨研究所Sources:,CITICSF制造業(yè)投資Manufacturinginvestment預(yù)計下半年制造業(yè)投資增長小幅加快6.0%，增速居中。上半年制造業(yè)利潤總額同比下降20%，不利于制造業(yè)投資增長。不過，政策積極支持制造業(yè)發(fā)展，640.3%，這有利于制造業(yè)投資增長。在政策的支持下，下半年制造業(yè)投資增長有望小幅加快。Itisexpectedthatthegrowthofinvestmentinmanufacturingindustrymay slightly accelerate in 2023H2. The accumulated investment manufacturingindustryincreasedby+6.0%in2023H1,whichwasatamediumlevel.In2023H1,thetotalprofitofthemanufacturingindustrydownedby-20%YoY,whichisnotconducivetothegrowthofmanufacturinginvestment.However,policiesstronglysupportthedevelopmentofthemanufacturingindustry.BytheendofJune,thegrowthrateofmid&long-termloanbalancestothemanufacturingindustrywasashighas+40.3%,whichisfavorabletothegrowthofmanufacturinginvestment.Withthesupportofpolicies,thegrowthofmanufacturinginvestmentwillmoderatelyquickenin2023H2.圖表9(，21InvestmentinmanufacturingindustryYoY(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021)

圖表10：制造業(yè)中長期貸款與利潤增速（）Outstandingmid&long-termloansandtotalprofitofmanufacturingindustryYoY3020100-10-20-40

CurrentyearcumulativeinvestmentinmanufacturingYoY Outstandingmid&long-termLoanstomanufacturingindustryYoYManufacturingindustryinvestmentinasinglemonthYoY CurrentyearcumulativeprofitofmanufacturingindustryYoY50403020100-10-20-30-40-50Feb-19 Feb-20 Feb-21 Feb-22

Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22資料來源：萬得中信期貨研究所Sources:,CITICSF 資料來源：萬得中信期貨研究所Sources:,CITICSF投資展望：房地產(chǎn)投資總體處于筑底階段，基建與制造業(yè)投資增長可能加快，下半年固定資產(chǎn)投資增長有望小幅加快。Tosummarize,therealestateinvestmentmaybebottomout,andthegrowthofinvestmentininfrastructureandmanufacturingmayaccelerate.Thegrowthoffixedassetsinvestmentisexpectedtomoderatelyimprovedin2023H2.Consumption6月消費(fèi)增速企穩(wěn)回升。4、5、6月份，2.6%、2.5%、3.1%3.5%、3.5%、4.0%，消費(fèi)增速已經(jīng)觸底并開始企穩(wěn)回升。TheconsumptiongrowthinQ2hasalreadyhitthebottom,withthegrowthratereboundedmoderatelyinJune.FromApriltoJune,thetwo-yearaveragegrowthratesofthetotalretailsalesofconsumergoodswere+2.6%,+2.5%,and+3.1%,andthefour-yearaveragegrowthrateswere+3.5%,+3.5%,and+4.0%,respectively.Theconsumptiongrowthratehasstartedtorebound.圖表11：社會消費(fèi)品零售總額的增速（，剔除基數(shù)效應(yīng)TotalRetailSalesofConsumerGoodsYoY(excludingbaseeffect)

圖表12：商品零售與餐飲收入當(dāng)月同比（，剔除基數(shù)效應(yīng)）CommodityRetailandIncomeofCateringIndustryYoY(excludingbaseeffect)RetailSalesYoY(two-yearaveragegrowthratein CommodityRetailYoY IncomeofCateringIndustryYoY2021and2023)20.0 RetailSalesYoY(two-year,four-yearaverage

(twoorfouryearaveragegrowthratein2021and2023,respectively)1515.010.05.00.0-5.0-10.0-15.0-20.0-25.0

ratein2021and2023,respectively)

1050-5-10-15-20-25-30Dec-18Jul-19Feb-20Sep-20Apr-21Nov-21Jun-22Jan-23

Feb-19Sep-19Apr-20Nov-20Jun-21Jan-22Aug-22Mar-23資料來源：萬得中信期貨研究所Sources:,CITICSF 資料來源：萬得中信期貨研究所Sources:,CITICSF中國消費(fèi)的修復(fù)過程尚未完成，下半年消費(fèi)尤其是服務(wù)消費(fèi)有望進(jìn)一步恢復(fù)。相對于疫情前（219年，二季度社會消費(fèi)品零售總額增長1.6%，遠(yuǎn)低于居民收入29.4%的增速，反映消費(fèi)仍存在較大的修復(fù)空間。其中，6月份商品零售與餐飲收201917.3%、13.6%，餐飲收入增速仍明顯低于商品零售，反映服務(wù)消費(fèi)的修復(fù)明顯滯后。預(yù)計下半年中國消費(fèi)尤其是服務(wù)消費(fèi)進(jìn)一步恢復(fù)。Therecoveryofconsumptionhasnotyetbeencompleted,andtheconsumption,especiallyserviceconsumption,isexpectedtofurtherrecoverin2023H2.Incomparisonwithpre-COVIDera(2019),theretailsalesofconsumergoodsraisedby+15%,13%lowerthanthegrowthrateofhouseholds’income,signifyingsomespaceforconsumptionrecovery.InJune,thegrowthrateoftheincomeofcateringindustrywas+13.6%comparedwithJune2019,whichwas3.7%lowerthanthatoftheretailsalesofcommodities,reflectingthattherecoveryofserviceconsumptionstilllagsbehind.ItisexpectedthatChinaconsumption,especiallyserviceconsumption,willfurtherrecoverin2023H2.0.30.40.3個百分點(diǎn)，比去年四季度的三年平均增速高0.9個百分點(diǎn)。Thegrowthofresidents'incomeisexpectedtoacceleratein2023H2,whichwillalsodriveafasterconsumptiongrowth.Residents'incomemainlydependsonemployment.TheurbansurveyedunemploymentrateinQ2was5.2%,0.3%lowerthanQ1and0.4%lowerthan2022Q4.In2023Q2,thenationwidepercapitadisposableincomeofresidentsgrewbyanaverageof6.7%overthepastfouryears,0.3%higherthanthefirstquarterand0.9%higherthanthethree-yearaveragegrowthratein2022Q4.總體來看，在國內(nèi)防疫政策優(yōu)化之后，居民整體失業(yè)率趨于降低，而居民收入增長趨于加快。下半年國內(nèi)服務(wù)消費(fèi)繼續(xù)溫和修復(fù)，服務(wù)業(yè)就業(yè)將進(jìn)一步增加，失業(yè)率可能小幅回落，居民收入增長或?qū)⑿》涌臁verall,aftertheoptimizationofdomesticepidemicpreventionpolicies,theunemploymentratetendstodecrease,whilethegrowthofresidents'incometendstoaccelerate.Inthesecondhalfoftheyear,domesticserviceconsumptionwillcontinuetorecovermoderately,employmentintheserviceindustrywillfurtherincrease,unemploymentratemayslightlydecline,andresidentincomegrowthmayslightlyaccelerate.Thus,theconsumptionmaygrowatafasterpace.已經(jīng)先后發(fā)布。未來存量房貸利率也可能適當(dāng)下調(diào)，這將減少居民利息支出，有助于消費(fèi)加快增長。Inaddition,theenhancingpolicysupportwillalsohelpaccelerateconsumptiongrowthin2023H2.Thepolitburomeetingdemandedeffortstoactivelyexpandconsumptiondemand.Inmid-July,thepoliciestoboosttheconsumptionofmajoritemsincludingautomobiles,electronicproductsandhouseholditemshavebeenreleased.Inthefuture,theinterestratesonexistinghousingloansmayalsobeappropriatelylowered,whichwillreduceresidents'interestexpensesandhelpaccelerateconsumptiongrowth.圖表13：居民收入與消費(fèi)增速（，剔除基數(shù)效應(yīng)）ThegrowthratesofResidentsIncomeandConsumption

圖表14：居民收入增速與城鎮(zhèn)調(diào)查失業(yè)率（）UnemploymentRateandthegrowthratesofIncomeCurrentyearaccumulativeResidentsIncomeYoY QuarterlyResidentsIncomeYoY (two-year,three-year,12840-8-12-16-20

CurrentyearaccumulativeRetailSalesYoY(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021and

four-yearaveragegrowthratein2021,2022andQuarterlyUnemploymentRate(rightaxis)1086420

6.05.25.04.24.0Dec-18Jul-19Feb-20Sep-20Apr-21Nov-21Jun-22Jan-23 Dec-18Aug-19Apr-20Dec-20Aug-21Apr-22Dec-22資料來源：萬得中信期貨研究所Sources:,CITICSF 資料來源：萬得中信期貨研究所Sources:,CITICSFExport下半年中國外需可能小幅走弱，但低基數(shù)效應(yīng)將推動出口同比增速回升。62023GDP0.4GDP0.7%，有望避免經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退?？傮w來看，下半年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)仍有韌性。China'sexternaldemandmayweakenslightlyin2023H2,buttheYoYgrowthrateofexportswillreboundduetothelowbaseeffect.TheWorldBankraised2023globalGDPgrowthprojectionby0.4%to+2.1%inJune,advancedeconomiesGDPisexpectedtogrowby+0.7%andmayavoideconomicrecession.Overall,globaleconomyisexpectedtostayresilient.25-50BP不會很大?？紤]到低基數(shù)效應(yīng)，中國出口同比增速或?qū)⒒厣nthesecondhalf,manyoverseaseconomiesstillneedhighinterestratetocurbinflationandrestrictdemand.Inparticular,theUSFedandECBmightraiseinterestrateby25to50bp.Inthisbackground,overseasdemandmayweaken.However,astheinterestratehikesgraduallystop,theimpactofhighinterestratesoncommoditydemandhasgenerallybeenreflected,andthedeclineinChina’sexternaldemandwillnotbesignificant.Becauseofthelowbaseeffect,thegrowthrateofChinaexportsmayreboundin2023H2.圖表15：全球制造業(yè)PMI與我國出口速（）GlobalManufacturePMIandChinaExportGrowth,%

圖表16：全球GDP增速及其預(yù)測（）GlobalGDPActualandProjectedGrowth,%J.P.MorganglobalmanufacturingPMI(leftExport(USD)YoY(two-yearaveragein2021)58565452504846

8246184122600-6 -2-12 -4

GDP同比:全球 發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體 發(fā)展中國家GlobalGDPYoY%AEGDPYoYGlobalGDPYoY%AEGDPYoY% EMGDPYoY44Feb-16Mar-17Apr-18May-19Jun-20Jul-21Aug-22

-18

-62020 2021 2022e 2023f 2024f 2025f資料來源：中信期貨研究所Sources:,CITICSF 資料來源：世界銀行中信期貨研究所Sources:WorldBank,CITICSFGDPGrossDomesticProduct二季度中國GDP3.3%GDP6.3%，.%.%的增速。Thetwo-yearaveragegrowthrateofChinaGDPin2023Q2was3.3%,atarelativelylowlevel.ThegrowthrateofGDPin2023Q2was6.3%,thehighlevelwasmainlyduetothelowbaseeffect;however,thetwo-yearaveragegrowthratewasonly3.3%,1.3%lowerthan2023Q1.圖表17：GDP當(dāng)季同比（）QuarterlyGDPYoY

圖表18GDP，2123GDPYoY,byindustry(excludingbase20.016.012.08.04.00.0-4.0-8.0

GDP:當(dāng)季同比QuarterlyGDPYoY

10.08.06.04.02.00.0-2.0-4.0-6.0-8.0-10.0

GDP 第二產(chǎn)業(yè) 第三產(chǎn)業(yè)SecondaryIndustry TertiaryIndustry(two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021and2023)Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22資料來源：萬得中信期貨研究所Sources:,CITICSF 資料來源：萬得中信期貨研究所Sources:,CITICSF根據(jù)估算，6GDP4.0%左右GDP增長