財務(wù)管理-報表分析的邏輯切入點

廈門國家會計學(xué)院

報表分析新思維(之一)

報表分析的邏輯切入點

黃世忠

Ph.DCPA.MBA單位郵址:9/18/20231XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute闡述報表分析的邏輯切入點基于M公司與GFC公司的案例分析案例分析德隆的垮臺與財務(wù)報表的預(yù)警信號中石油的經(jīng)營記錄與業(yè)績評價移動電信的輝煌業(yè)績與潛在風(fēng)險本講旨在闡明報表分析的常見誤區(qū)，把握報表分析的邏輯體系研討要點與目的9/18/20232XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute三大核心問題問題1M公司與GFC公司孰優(yōu)孰劣？孰強孰弱？問題2M公司與GFC公司股票市值的反差原因何在？問題3如何評價M公司與GFC公司的業(yè)績？

考倒全世界頂級MBA的難題9/18/20233XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

經(jīng)營規(guī)模--雇員人數(shù)9/18/20234XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

經(jīng)營規(guī)模--資產(chǎn)總額9/18/20235XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

經(jīng)營規(guī)?！N售收入9/18/20236XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

經(jīng)營規(guī)模--CFFOA9/18/20237XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute股票市值(Capitalization)9/18/20238XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute財務(wù)實力—凈資產(chǎn)9/18/20239XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

經(jīng)營績效—凈利潤9/18/202310XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)：GFCv.sM(2002)

項目名稱

GFC公司

M公司

倍數(shù)GFC合計M雇員人數(shù)36.535.036.8108.35.0521.45資產(chǎn)總額3,7182,9522,1928,86267613.11銷售收入1,8601,6261,7505,23628418.44現(xiàn)金流量1711862085651453.90股票市值2001963137092,5410.28股東權(quán)益68564085325400.99凈利潤17-105562780.79ROE25%-18%13%12%14%0.86新經(jīng)濟與舊經(jīng)濟的反差9/18/202311XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute1.科學(xué)管理(時間和動作研究)2.成本核算和差異分析3.商業(yè)研究實驗室(科學(xué)產(chǎn)業(yè)化)(GE)4.(ROI&ROE)資本分析和資本預(yù)算5.品牌管理(P&G)6.大規(guī)模項目管理7.事業(yè)部制(GM)8.領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力開發(fā)(GE)9.產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)聯(lián)合(多公司合作組織)(Visa)10.極度分權(quán)化(自我組織)(Google)11.正式化戰(zhàn)略分析12.員工驅(qū)動問題解決法(Toyota)DuPontAnalysis13.臭鼬工廠(內(nèi)部攻堅小組)14.客戶管理15.業(yè)務(wù)流程再造

1900-2000年175項管理創(chuàng)新1.是否明顯脫離以前的管理實踐2.是否給率先創(chuàng)新的公司帶來競爭優(yōu)勢3.是否在當(dāng)今的組織中留下烙印

20世紀(jì)現(xiàn)代管理的12大創(chuàng)新9/18/202312XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute凈資產(chǎn)收益率

(收入+利得)–(成本+費用+損失)實收資本+資本公積+盈余公積+未分配利潤

凈利潤ROE=凈資產(chǎn)做大分子:增收節(jié)支做小分母:光明正道:資本結(jié)構(gòu)歪門邪道:虧損揮霍

ROE陷阱9/18/202313XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)：GFCv.sM(2003)

項目名稱

GFC公司

M公司

倍數(shù)GFC合計M雇員人數(shù)32.332.838.4103.55.718.2資產(chǎn)總額4,4853,0462,2469,77779612.3銷售收入1,8551,6421,7195,21632216.2現(xiàn)金流量762022084861583.1股票市值2182594539302,9150.32股東權(quán)益2521174348036101.32凈利潤384.95.648.599.90.49ROE15%4%1.3%6%16%0.38

新經(jīng)濟與舊經(jīng)濟的強烈反差9/18/202314XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute盈利質(zhì)量現(xiàn)金流量資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量

財務(wù)報表分析的三大邏輯切入點9/18/202315XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute盈利質(zhì)量收入質(zhì)量利潤質(zhì)量毛利率成長性波動性研發(fā)營銷

盈利質(zhì)量分析方法9/18/202316XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute收入質(zhì)量(QualityofRevenue)MSFTGMFDCX(ED)1999197169016011482200023017391698160320012531691160915402002284177316231474200332218551642136420043681935170914212005398192617711498200644320731601151620075111881172515262008604

9/18/202317XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute收入質(zhì)量(QualityofRevenue)9/18/202318XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

利潤質(zhì)量(QualityofProfit)MSFTGMFDCX(ED)1999796072572000944535792001736-55-720027817-104720039538542004902835252005122-10620282006126-21-124322007141-387-25402008177

9/18/202319XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute利潤質(zhì)量(QualityofProfit)9/18/202320XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteRivalAmountDateTimeWarner$750mMay2003SunMicro$1.95bApril2004Novell$536mNov.2004B$60mMarch2005Gateway$150mApril2005IBM$775mJune2005Total$4.221bMicrosoftSettlement

(Antitrustsuitfiledin1998,settledin2001)9/18/202321XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute項目名稱GMFordDaimlerChrysler200420052004200520042005銷售收入1,935.171,926.041,716.461,781.011,682.261,773.65其中:汽車1,615.461,582.211,471.281,545.151,517.191,590.82金融319.71343.83245.18235.86165.07182.83凈利潤27.89-105.5434.8719.9829.2033.70其中:汽車-1.05-130.62-1.55-39.26n.an.a金融28.0825.0850.0858.81n.an.a經(jīng)營業(yè)績:2005vs.20049/18/202322XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute2006:艱難的轉(zhuǎn)折?ChryslerGroup2006OperatingLoss$152007totalLoss$29.2May15,2007soldfor$74May10,1998boughtfor$360GMFordDCXQ14.45-11.872.99Q2-33.79-2.5418.10Q3-1.15-58.005.51Q4+9.50-51.645.67Total-20.99-124.0532.272007:-$3872008Q3:-$213SEasoftheendof2008Q3GM:-599;Ford:-202008Q3-$879/18/202323XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute毛利率(GrossProfitMargin)會計年度GFCM20019.2%1.8%16.1%86.3%20027.8%6.8%18.8%81.6%20038.0%6.2%19.4%81.2%20047.0%7.8%19.4%81.8%2005-2.5%5.6%17.9%84.4%20064.8%-3.9%17.1%81.1%20076.7%7.6%24.8%79.1%2008

80.8%9/18/202324XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteM公司的成本費用結(jié)構(gòu)3EStrategyEmbrace,Extend,Extinguish9/18/202325XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteR&D占銷售收入比重2006年2248家企業(yè)集團R&D占比1.1%GM2003-20053.33%;3.34%;3.47%9/18/202326XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute成本結(jié)構(gòu)與風(fēng)險傳導(dǎo)資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)現(xiàn)金含量退出壁壘經(jīng)營風(fēng)險財務(wù)彈性潛在損失

資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量分析方法技術(shù)風(fēng)險9/18/202327XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量(QualityofAssets)(2001)9/18/202328XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量(QualityofAssets)(2002)9/18/202329XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量(QualityofAssets)(2003)9/18/202330XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量(QualityofAssets)(2004)9/18/202331XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量(QualityofAssets)(2005)9/18/202332XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

如何解釋市凈率?13.15.55.83.40.679/18/202333XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

品牌價值9/18/202334XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

被忽略的“軟資產(chǎn)”Coca-ColaMicrosoft品牌價值資產(chǎn)總額股東權(quán)益品牌價值資產(chǎn)總額股東權(quán)益200169022411465158847320026962441186416765222003705273141652796649200467431415961494474820056752941645997084829/18/202335XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute何為風(fēng)險?Riskisuncertainty風(fēng)險的類別經(jīng)濟風(fēng)險(EconomicRisk)環(huán)境風(fēng)險(經(jīng)濟條件、政治及社會環(huán)境）市場風(fēng)險（市場結(jié)構(gòu)、企業(yè)競爭優(yōu)勢）經(jīng)營風(fēng)險（OperationalRisk)固定成本與變動成本比例財務(wù)風(fēng)險（FinancialRisk)資本結(jié)構(gòu)與金融市場利率營業(yè)風(fēng)險BusinessRisk利潤易變性ProfitVolatility傳導(dǎo)傳導(dǎo)成本結(jié)構(gòu)與風(fēng)險傳導(dǎo)9/18/202336XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute+5%+14%+18%

-5%-14%-18%

經(jīng)濟風(fēng)險

經(jīng)營風(fēng)險

營業(yè)風(fēng)險

財務(wù)風(fēng)險經(jīng)濟狀況政治社會環(huán)境銷售收入息稅前利潤稅后利潤市場結(jié)構(gòu)競爭優(yōu)勢

風(fēng)險的傳導(dǎo)與放大9/18/202337XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

XYZ公司風(fēng)險評估測算表預(yù)期數(shù)

銷售收入+5%

銷售收入-5%銷售收入50,000+5%52,500-5%47,500減:變動成本19,000+5%19,950-5%18,050

固定成本20,0000%20,0000%20,000息稅前利潤11,000+14%12,550-14%9,450減:固定利息支出2,5000%2,5000%2,500稅前利潤8,500+18%10,050-18%6,950減:所得稅2,125+18%2,513-18%1,738稅后利潤6,375+18%7,537-18%5,212

風(fēng)險傳導(dǎo)放大效應(yīng)9/18/202338XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute現(xiàn)金流量經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金流量自由現(xiàn)金流量“造血”功能自由裁量

現(xiàn)金流量分析方法9/18/202339XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute廣義的自由現(xiàn)金流量FCF=經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流量-資本支出用于評估還本付息和股利支付的能力狹義的自由現(xiàn)金流量FCF=經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流量-資本支出-現(xiàn)金股利用于評估企業(yè)的財務(wù)彈性利用市場機遇和應(yīng)對市場逆境的能力用于評估企業(yè)依靠內(nèi)部現(xiàn)金資源謀求發(fā)展的能力CFFOAvs.FreeCashFlow9/18/202340XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute現(xiàn)金流量趨勢:G(12vs.73)200420052006FCF+53-250-197Interest120158170Principal4526461419162007CF-O:77;CF-CE:75Int.:29;P:18449/18/202341XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute2005.12.13Cut30,000jobsClose9facilitiesBy2008(2005.11.21)Share$19.85(2005.12.20)Lowestin23yearsGM-不斷惡化的信用等級9/18/202342XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

GMvs.Toyota2008.11.7GM:27TM:10529/18/202343XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute誰是老大?9/18/202344XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute1.1millionofemployeescovered,pensionandhealthcareliabilitytotaled$170b,currentShortage$54bGM-不堪重負(fù)的醫(yī)療與退休債務(wù)9/18/202345XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute20052004GMToyotaGMToyotaHealthCare$1,850

$200$1,528$201Pension$700$50$695$50Total$2,550$250$2,223$251GAP:$2,300GAP:$1,972醫(yī)療及退休費用對制造成本的影響9/18/202346XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute汽車巨頭盈利能力差異9/18/202347XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteS&PloweredFord’sratingtoB+onJune27,2006現(xiàn)金流量趨勢:F(69vs.63)2007CF-O:171CF-CE:609/18/202348XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute2006年—F公司的生死之年?WayForwardTurnaroundProgram1.CutNorthAmericaWhite-collarcostsby10%2.Eliminateupto30,000Hourlyjobsandclose14Plantsby20122006.9.15Buyoutall75,000NorthAmericanfactoryworkers$140,000perworkerTotal$10.5billion9/18/202349XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

現(xiàn)金流量趨勢:C2007CF-O:191CF-CE:1649/18/202350XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

現(xiàn)金流量趨勢:M9/18/202351XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteMicrosoft:股票期權(quán)的妙用IfyouworkforMicrosoft,Microsoftdoesnotpayyou,youhavetopayMicrosoft2003-2008166.409/18/202352XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteProblemChildrenStarsDogsCashCows市場成長性市場占有率高低高

BytheBostonConsultingGroupin1968

波士頓矩陣(TheBostonMatrix)9/18/202353XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteStars(現(xiàn)金明星)

–PLC處于高速成長階段，市場占有率很高且仍呈上升趨勢–銷售收入和現(xiàn)金流量有很高的增長潛力–獲利豐厚，但現(xiàn)金流量不很充裕波士頓矩陣(TheBostonMatrix)9/18/202354XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteCashCows(現(xiàn)金奶牛)市場占有率很高PLC處于成熟階段產(chǎn)品維持成本較低現(xiàn)金性收入很高經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流量十分充裕波士頓矩陣(TheBostonMatrix)9/18/202355XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteDogs(現(xiàn)金瘦狗)PLC處于衰退階段

市場占有率很低或不斷下降經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流量入不敷出產(chǎn)品需要大量維持支出Isyourproductstartingtoembarrassyourcompany?波士頓矩陣(TheBostonMatrix)9/18/202356XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteProblemChild(問題小孩)PLC處于高速成長階段，但市場占有率很低產(chǎn)品維持需要大量資金支出經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流量可能出現(xiàn)負(fù)數(shù)未來潛力充滿不確定性Problemchildren–worthspendinggoodmoneyon?波士頓矩陣(TheBostonMatrix)9/18/202357XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

股票市場表現(xiàn)9/18/202358XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteMicrosoft的崛起1975年4月BillGatesandPaulAllen創(chuàng)立了MicrosoftMicrosoftstaffphotofromDecember7,1978.Fromlefttoright:

Top:SteveWood,BobWallace,JimLane.

Middle:BobO'Rear,BobGreenberg,MarcMcDonald,GordonLetwin.

Bottom:BillGates,AndreaLewis,MarlaWood,PaulAllen

IPOinMarch13,1986,raising$61mTodate,totalcapitalraisedismorethan$62.8b9/18/202359XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

BillGates的”裸捐”WarrenBuffettdonated$37billion,mainlytotheBill&MelindaGatesFoundation+$509/18/202360XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute誰是美國高科技的最大功臣?

中美經(jīng)濟改革的不同價值取向9/18/202361XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute三大邏輯切入點盈利質(zhì)量資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量現(xiàn)金流量收入質(zhì)量利潤質(zhì)量毛利率高低成長性退出壁壘潛在損失經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金流量自由現(xiàn)金流量波動性資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)現(xiàn)金含量”造血“功能自由裁量研發(fā)營銷報表分析三大邏輯切入點9/18/202362XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute盈利質(zhì)量與資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量相互背離案例NPLRatio2005:4.62%;2006:4.04%NPLRatio2001:27.51%;2002:22.49%撥備覆蓋率2001:16.80%2002:22.09%撥備覆蓋率2005:80.55%;2006:96.00%9/18/202363XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute盈利質(zhì)量與資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量相互背離案例類別名稱XYZ銀行20022001正常貸款11,5568,935關(guān)注貸款2,5202,558不良貸款4,0854,360其中:次級6571,089可疑1,5542,344損失1,874927貸款合計18,16215,853貸款準(zhǔn)備903681貸款類別計提比例正常1%關(guān)注2%次級25%可疑50%損失100%9/18/202364XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute第一次不良貸款剝離Carved-outOrCoveredout?9/18/202365XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteBankAMCNPL(￥billion)工行華融407.7農(nóng)行長城345.8中行東方267.4建行信達(dá)373.0合計1,394.0《財政部關(guān)于中國銀行和中國建設(shè)銀行所持金融資產(chǎn)管理公司債券本息有關(guān)問題的通知》（財金[2004]87號），從2005.1.1起，如果東方和信達(dá)不能全額向BOC和CCB支付債券利息或按期兌付本金，MOF將給予資金支持NPLtransferredtoAMC9/18/202366XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute414億元可疑類貸款227億元核銷沖銷貸款2787億元可疑類貸款2460億元損失類貸款4590億元可疑類貸款交行2004.6中行和建行2004.6工行2005.5;2005.6信達(dá)信達(dá)四大AMC

不良貸款二次剝離9/18/202367XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute年度凈利潤CFFOA19989,876-17,191199912,308-21,248200017,844-53,57620013,610-2,59420022,280-84,8072003-18,683-15,54420041,98245,3002005-69,60021,6002006-71,86616,413年度凈利潤比例調(diào)整前17,844調(diào)整后6,99539.2%調(diào)整額10,84960.8%調(diào)整原因?qū)⒃嬋腴L期待攤費用和在建工程的R&D，作為重大會計差錯進(jìn)行調(diào)整

“紙面富貴”的D公司2004:S26.3;NI(A)-641;2005:S15.6;NI(A)-7.112006:S21.42004:NIoverstatedby3719,30finedbyCSRS9/18/202368XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

樂極生悲的四川長虹凈利潤20010.891.762.412004-36.812004Q1-Q3CFFOA-3.129/18/202369XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute權(quán)責(zé)發(fā)生制會計管理當(dāng)局動機盈利質(zhì)量現(xiàn)金流量分析資產(chǎn)負(fù)債質(zhì)量核心盈利可持續(xù)性、成長性、現(xiàn)金流量調(diào)整與調(diào)節(jié)應(yīng)計制向現(xiàn)金流動制的轉(zhuǎn)換確認(rèn)和計量資產(chǎn)、負(fù)債、股東權(quán)益決策財務(wù)契約設(shè)計估值與投資信貸分析財務(wù)風(fēng)險評估審計風(fēng)險評估差錯歪曲報表失真問題報表分析緯度報表分析用途財務(wù)報表分析的邏輯切入點9/18/202370XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute三大報表的功能區(qū)分資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表利潤表現(xiàn)金流量表從“德隆系”的垮臺看證券監(jiān)管的誤區(qū)基于新疆屯河的案例分析德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的嗎?9/18/202371XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute現(xiàn)金流量表的“妙用”經(jīng)營活動產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流量投資活動產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流量籌資活動產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流量造血功能抽血功能輸血功能現(xiàn)金流量表—經(jīng)常被忽略的報表9/18/202372XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteIPO的條件3年連續(xù)盈利上市前一年末的凈資產(chǎn)比率不低于30%SEO的門檻配股：ROE不低于6%增發(fā)：上一年的ROE不低于10%ST或退市的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)ST：連續(xù)兩年虧損，或NAPS低于1元退市：連續(xù)三年虧損復(fù)市的條件恢復(fù)盈利以利潤表和資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表的監(jiān)管導(dǎo)向9/18/202373XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

項目名稱2001年末2002年末2003年末2004年末流動資產(chǎn)173,190281,349139,354163,402長期投資98,33978,10188,11448,081固定資產(chǎn)134,618245,025143,305171,191無形及其他資產(chǎn)23,62127,5469,73311,676

資產(chǎn)總計429,768632,021380,506394,350流動負(fù)債278,007426,140217,752311,522長期負(fù)債6,70642,83548,51443,459少數(shù)股東權(quán)益56,60962,0472,5923,378股東權(quán)益88,446100,999111,64835,991L&SE總計429,768632,021380,506394,350

德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的嗎?9/18/202374XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中國電信的運營資本20072006200520042003固定資產(chǎn)339,331346,805351,938349,713341,576其他非流動資產(chǎn)25,99327,86028,70129,47129,391現(xiàn)金及銀行存款20,55622,44518,86314,60318,199其他流動資產(chǎn)22,12421,76121,58219,83920,278資產(chǎn)合計408,004418,871421,084413,626409,444流動負(fù)債138,537157,629157,707152,284149,630非流動負(fù)債47,09553,59377,199100,007102,744負(fù)債合計185,632211,222234,906252,291252,374股東權(quán)益222.372207,649186,178161,335157,070負(fù)債與股東權(quán)益合計408,004418,871421,084413,626409,444運營資本-95,857-113,423-117,262-117,842-111,153運營資本—中國移動+52,68+22,1619/18/202375XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute20047,459185,084-34,924德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的嗎?9/18/202376XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute項目名稱2001年2002年2003年2004年主營業(yè)務(wù)收入76,726194,351217,379109,765主營業(yè)務(wù)利潤25,87272,13878,55029,980營業(yè)利潤3,8247,6135,357-29,177加：投資收益4,2354,9929,824-37,839補貼收入5654,887407472營業(yè)外收入317411345106減：營業(yè)外支出1565564781,958利潤總額8,78517,34715,456-68,397減：所得稅-5222,374168179少數(shù)股東損益4,2413,7093,361-746加：未確認(rèn)投資損失

1,229凈利潤5,06611,26211,926-66,601德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的嗎?9/18/202377XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute項目名稱2001年2002年2003年2004年經(jīng)營活動產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金-19,61848,84527,726-41,910投資活動的現(xiàn)金流入3,72228370,39315,232其中:收回投資3,180069,94815,100投資收益506000投資活動的現(xiàn)金流出55,91351,884173,16724,909投資活動的凈現(xiàn)金流-52,19151,601-102,774-9,676籌資活動的現(xiàn)金流入156,569212,677327,95262,126其中:借款137,244212,467324,97358,968籌資活動的現(xiàn)金流出75,651143,361289,02050,596其中：償還債務(wù)67,830123,278270,33240,802

支付股利和利息7,82119,89717,3419,733德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的嗎?9/18/202378XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的嗎?9/18/202379XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute德隆的死因既不是被郎咸平“搞死”的，也不是被監(jiān)管部門“整死”的而是自己“搞死”的戰(zhàn)略管理的失誤理財策略的失誤短借長用“造血”功能不足，靠“輸血”維持，且不懂得“節(jié)制”初步啟示證券監(jiān)管出現(xiàn)方向性“偏差”CSRC和兩個SE都不關(guān)心現(xiàn)金流量表，CPA也不例外理性回歸牢記理財學(xué)中的“萬有引力定律”Cashisking!CashFlowStatementisakingwithoutcloth!

簡短結(jié)論9/18/202380XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute燃料工業(yè)部石油管理總局(1950.4)石油工業(yè)部(1955.7)燃料化學(xué)工業(yè)部(1970.6)石油化學(xué)工業(yè)部(1975)石油工業(yè)部(1978)中國石油天然氣總公司(1988.9)中國石油天然氣集團公司(1998.7)中國海洋石油總公司(1982.2)中國石油化工總公司(1983.7)

中國石油化工行業(yè)的沿革9/18/202381XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute2000.4上市—200億2005.9增發(fā)—196億1999.11.5重組中石油(0857.HK)股價周線圖發(fā)行40億A股,發(fā)行價16.70元，募集688億元股份比例%國有股157986.28H股21111.53A股402.19合計1830100.09/18/202382XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中石油上市以來股價表現(xiàn)發(fā)行價格1.26vs.16.7巴菲特撤退?9/18/202383XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中石油業(yè)績因何突出?--業(yè)績角度2008Q3S:8537NI:9879/18/202384XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中石油業(yè)績因何突出?–稅收角度2008Q318839/18/202385XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中石油業(yè)績因何突出?–資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)角度2008Q3TA:10594;FA:69359/18/202386XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中石油業(yè)績因何突出?

–財務(wù)狀況角度2008Q3TA:11227;SE:7853DR:30.05%DR:28.07%9/18/202387XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中石油業(yè)績因何突出?–現(xiàn)金流量角度2008Q3OA:1499;IA:-1196;FA:-2699/18/202388XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中石油業(yè)績因何突出?—自由現(xiàn)金流量角度2008Q3:1979/18/202389XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中國石油業(yè)績報告(可控與不可控因素分析)油價影響?EVA影響?改制影響?中石油業(yè)績因何突出?9/18/202390XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

業(yè)績飆升的動因2007接替率原油:1.104天然氣:3.2389/18/202391XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute原油價格走勢圖(2000-2008)2008.10.31收盤$67.812008.7.11最高$147.279/18/202392XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

“暴利稅”(300億)政府的重大決定(2006.3.26)《國務(wù)院關(guān)于開征石油企業(yè)收益特別金的決定》、財政部《石油收益特別金征收管理辦法》

原油價格

稅率$40-$4520%$45-$5025%$50-$5530%$55-$6035%$60以上40%9/18/202393XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteEVAvs.NI–中石油

EVA=NOPAT–ICxWACC或EVA=凈利潤-凈資產(chǎn)×資金成本率9/18/202394XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute資本成本導(dǎo)致經(jīng)營業(yè)績銳減EVAvs.NI–中石化(2002)9/18/202395XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteValueCreationValueDestructionEVAvs.NI–四川長虹(2002)9/18/202396XiamenNationalAccountingInstituteCNPCvs.PC

的比較及涵義資產(chǎn)總額股東權(quán)益銷售收入稅后利潤少數(shù)股東損益2000集團股份6,5654,3203,9392,1763,4512,453197546522001集團股份6,7514,6274,0892,9063,4352,413151455832002集團股份7,3614,8314,5043,1673,7922,444236469942003集團股份8,0835,3174,9693,5664,7533,038371696802004集團股份9,1376,0995,9544,2525,7073,8867251,0291382005集團股份11,6027,7817,4755,4376,9375,5221,0611,3961672006集團股份14,0908,685n.a6,1768,6856,8901,2991,49488.2%(1,318)2007集團股份15,9909,641n.a7,15110,0078,3501,3451,43486.3%(1,238)9/18/202397XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute項目名稱SinopecGroupSinopec資產(chǎn)總額6,2024,608負(fù)債及少數(shù)股東權(quán)益4,2922,744股東權(quán)益1,9101,864主營業(yè)務(wù)收入6,3425,906凈利潤105323銷售利潤率1.69%7.00%凈資產(chǎn)收益率5.49%17.32%SINOPEC少數(shù)股東損益165有何涵義？中石化集團vs.中石化股份的比較及涵義9/18/202398XiamenNationalAccountingInstitutePetroChinavs.ExxonMobile2006.12.312008.10.319/18/202399XiamenNationalAccountingInstitutePetroChinavs.ExxonMobile項目名稱200220032004200520062007銷售收入--PC--EM2,4932,0093,1042,3713,9742,9125,5223,5906,8903,6558,3503,903稅后利潤--PC--EM4741157192151,0672531,3963611,4943951,434406資產(chǎn)總額--PC--EM5,0091,5265,5701,7436,3851,9537,7812,0838,7212,1909,9412,421凈資產(chǎn)--PC--EM3,2437463,6698994,4301,0185,4371,1125,4371,1127,1511,2183.412.071.781.249/18/2023100XiamenNationalAccountingInstitutePetroChinavs.ExxonMobile項目名稱200220032004200520062007銷售利潤率--PC--EM19.01%5.72%23.16%9.06%27.07%8.69%25.28%10.06%21.68%10.81%17.17%10.40%資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率--PC--EM0.511.360.591.450.661.580.781.780.841.710.891.70財務(wù)杠桿系數(shù)--PC--EM1.542.051.521.941.441.921.431.871.411.921.391.99凈資產(chǎn)收益率--PC--EM14.93%15.95%20.77%25.48%25.73%26.36%28.19%33.49%25.68%35.49%21.34%34.50%DebtRatio-2007PC:28%EM:50%9/18/2023101XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

DuPont分析體系凈資產(chǎn)收益率的分解

凈利潤凈資產(chǎn)收益率=凈資產(chǎn)凈利潤銷售收入資產(chǎn)總額凈資產(chǎn)收益率=××銷售收入資產(chǎn)總額凈資產(chǎn)=銷售利潤率×資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率×財務(wù)杠桿系數(shù)9/18/2023102XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中國電信市場概覽市場總量2007年全國通信業(yè)務(wù)收入7120.6億元其中電信業(yè)務(wù)收入7280.18億元,增長10.9%郵政業(yè)務(wù)收入771.5億元,增長21.2%電話用戶總量2007.12.31,全國電話用戶91,273.4萬戶其中移動電話用戶54,728.4萬戶,約占60%固定電話用戶36,545萬戶,約占40%9/18/2023103XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute移動電話一支獨秀9/18/2023104XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

發(fā)展趨勢:冰火兩重天9/18/2023105XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute電信市場構(gòu)成9/18/2023106XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute移動通信案例分析—市場占有率9/18/2023107XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute王建宙:我舉雙手贊成!常小兵:我想不通!王曉初:我無話可說!電信三巨頭閃電換崗

---中組部和國資委的灰色幽默9/18/2023108XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute電信重組:走向?qū)嵸|(zhì)競爭?新中國電信=舊中國電信+CDMA網(wǎng)+中國衛(wèi)通基礎(chǔ)電信業(yè)務(wù)新中國聯(lián)通=舊中國聯(lián)通GSM網(wǎng)+中國網(wǎng)通新中國移動=舊中國移動+中國鐵通王曉初常小兵王建宙9/18/2023109XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute電信三巨頭的競爭實力中國移動中國聯(lián)通中國電信聯(lián)通網(wǎng)通營業(yè)收入3,5701,0058411,787增長率10.9%4.1%-3.35%2.80%EBIDTA1,940326412893EBIDTA率54.3%33.0%50.0%50.0%凈利潤87156121237增長率31.9%166%-6.70%1.10%用戶數(shù)(億)3.8661.6249固話1.1878寬帶0.1977固話2.26寬帶0.3565凈增數(shù)(萬)6810.71825.3固話-325.2寬帶533.9固話-271寬帶7339/18/2023110XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中國移動(0941.HK)股價月線圖1997.7上市323億元9/18/2023111XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中國聯(lián)通(0762.HK)股價月線圖2000.6上市453億9/18/2023112XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute市場開拓？資本運作?營業(yè)收入趨勢圖(Comparability)2008H119652008H13599/18/2023113XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute收入成長性9/18/2023114XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute會計年度納入合并的子公司家數(shù)報表數(shù)備拷數(shù)金額（億元）比增金額（億元）比增20006182---247---20011328053.8%28415.0%20022132716.4%34019.7%2003213568.9%3472.1%20043142018.0%43224.50%20053153527.4%53523.8%合并范圍對中國移動營業(yè)收入的影響9/18/2023115XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

中國移動營業(yè)收入曲線9/18/2023116XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute經(jīng)營業(yè)績項目20012002200320042005經(jīng)營收入-報告數(shù)-備拷數(shù)6851,3017551,4091,1851,5161,6121,6121,6931,693利潤總額-報告數(shù)-備拷數(shù)698316983247139281281280280資產(chǎn)總額-報告數(shù)-備拷數(shù)1,8934,2342,1084,2373,0564,0394,1264,1264,1714,171L&MI-報告數(shù)-備拷數(shù)9182,5408582,3671,7442,5312,5342,5342,3552,355凈資產(chǎn)-報告數(shù)-備拷數(shù)9751,6941,2501,8701,3121,5081,5921,5921,8161,816

中國電信5年財務(wù)概要9/18/2023117XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute

中國電信過去5年業(yè)績成長9/18/2023118XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中國電信過去五年收入構(gòu)成9/18/2023119XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中國電信經(jīng)營成本構(gòu)成200620052004金額%金額%金額%折舊與攤銷51,27237.5749,65238.0947,17038.86網(wǎng)絡(luò)營運及支撐成本30,72322.5130,33423.2727,61122.75銷售、一般及管理費用22,24116.3019,89215.2619,22915.84人工成本26,01919.0624,96019.1523,23319.14網(wǎng)間互聯(lián)&其他經(jīng)營成本6,2554.595,5184.234,1393.41合計136,483100.0130,356100.0121,382100.09/18/2023120XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute中國移動經(jīng)營成本構(gòu)成項目名稱金額備注電路租費3,224其他營運支出主要包括銷售及推廣開支、減值損失、經(jīng)營租賃費用、維修費用、收賬服務(wù)費用、無線電頻率費用等。假設(shè)其中60%為固定成本，則固定成本占經(jīng)營成本的70%網(wǎng)間互聯(lián)支出15,309折舊56,368工資14,200其他營運支出80,254經(jīng)營成本合計169,3559/18/2023121XiamenNationalAccountingInstitute會計

年度

中國移動

中國聯(lián)通EBIDTA（億元）占收入比例EBIDTA（億元）占收入比例200160360.1%13548.2%20027