外文翻譯-利用層次分析法選擇各類發(fā)電廠及外文翻譯-一個魯棒的基于機器視覺運動目標檢測與跟蹤系統

英文原文Multi-criteriaselectionofelectricpowerplantsusinganalyticalhierarchyprocessAbstractThispaperusesanalyticalhierarchyprocess(AHP)methodologytoperformacomparisonbetweenthedifferentelectricitypowerproductionoptionsinJordan.Thesystemswhichwereconsidered,inadditiontofossilfuelpowerplants,arenuclear,solar,wind,andhydro-power.Resultsoncosttobenefitratiosshowthatsolar,wind,endhydro-powermaybethebestalternativesforelectricpowerproduction.Nuclearelectricityturnsouttobetheworstchoice,followedbyfossilfuelelectricpower.1.IntroductionJordanisanon-oilproducingMiddle-Easterncountry.Itreliesheavilyonimportingoilfromneighboringcountries.Mostoftheelectricpowerthatisgeneratedtoservedifferentsectorsofthecountryisproducedfrompowerplantsthatusefossilfuel.Thisfueliseithertotallyimportedsuchaspetroleumhydrocarbonfuel,orpartiallylocal(onlywithsmallpercentage)suchasnaturalgas.The1996electricalenergyconsumptioninJordanreachedavalueof6000GWh.About93%ofhisamountwasproducedbytheNationalElectricPowerCompany(NEPCO)whichisthemainelectricitysupplierinthecountry[1].Otheroptionsoralternativesofenergysourcesforelectricpowergenerationmustteeconsidered.Theseoptionsmayincludenuclear,solar,wind,orhydro-electricenergies.TheJordanianexperiencewithelectricitygenerationusingsolarandwindenergytechnologyhasbeenonthesmallandexperimentalscale.TheserenewableenergysystemswereutilizedinmostlyremoteareasofJordan.Theyareusedtogenerateelectricpowerforindividualapplicationsuchasclinics,lighting,andeducationaltelevisionsets.TheremotevillageofJurfEldaraweeshlocatedintheJordandesertofapopulationof600,isthebestexample[2].Thenecessaryelectricalenergyistotallysuppliedbysolarandwindenergyconversionsystems.Inthispaper,oil-firedpowerplantsinadditiontootheralternativesarebeingevaluated.Theotheralternativesincludenuclear,solar,windandhydro-power.Abriefdescriptionofvariouspowerplanttechnologieswillbepresented.Usingadecision-supportsystemthroughamultiplecriteriaanalysis,suchasAHP,anattemptwillbemadetoassistdecisionmakerstoevaluatetheuseoftheabovetechnologieswhichcanbemostsuitableforelectricalpowerproductioninJordan.2.Fossil-fuelelectricalpowerplantsIngeneral,fossilfuelsarenon-renewable.Theyoriginatefromtheearthasaresultofdecompositionandchemicalconversionoforganicmaterials.Theycomeinthreeorganicforms:(1)solid,e.g.coalandoilshale;(2)liquid,e.g.mostpetroleumproducts,and(3)gas,e.g.naturalgas.Coalrepresentsthelargestfossil-fuelenergyresourceinelectricpowergeneration[3,4].OilshaleisafossilfuelthatexistsinJordaninabundance,butwithunattractivephysicalproperties.First,likealloilshales,ithasalowheatingvalueduetothehighashcontent[5].Secondly,theJordanianoilshalehassulfurcontents,ranging4–6%[6].Becauseoflowpricesofpetroleumworldwidetheutilizationofsolidfossilfuels,suchasoilshale,cannotbefeasibleatthetimebeing.Therefore,oilshalepowerplantscannotbeconsideredtobecompetitive[3].PetroleumandnaturalgasarethemainfuelsusedfortheelectricpowergenerationinJordaninadditiontosmallhydro-poweredelectricitygenerationplants.Table1representstheexistingelectricalpowerplantsinJordan[1].3.ElectricitypowerproductionusingsolarenergySincethe1970ssolarenergyhasreceivedthegreatestattentionofallrenewableenergysourcesallovertheworld.Manyregarditasthesolutionforcleanerenvironmentandmaybethealternativetofossilandnuclearfuels.Thus,solarenergyhasbeentheobjectforproductionofelectricalpower.Manystudiesandexperienceshaveshownthatsolarthermalpowerplantsareoneofthemosteconomicformsofsolarelectricitygeneration.Solarenergycanbeconvertedintoelectricitybyphotovoltaiccells,butthisprocessismostlyconvenientandsuitableforsmallapplicationsonly.Standalonephotovoltaicpowersystemswereproposedforelectrificationofremoteareasofwhichtheyarelocatedoutsidetheelectricitygrid-connectionsupplysystem[7].Ontheotherhand,solarenergycanbeconvertedintothermalenergybymeansofsolarcollectorsorconcentrators.Aworkingfluidisusedtoconvertthethermalenergyintomechanicalenergywhichisthenconvertedintoelectricity.Unlikephotovoltaics,largeamountsofelectricalpowercanbegeneratedfromsuchplants.Thetypesofreceiversthatcanbeseriouslyconsideredare:(1)centralreceivers,(2)dispersedordistributedreceiversand(3)solarponds.LikemostcountriesoftheMiddleEast,Jordanenjoyslongperiodsofsunshine.Thelocalweatherhasover300cloudlessdaysperyear.FuturetechnologysuggeststhattheDeadSeaitselfcanbeusedas450km2solarlake,operatinga2500MWpowerplant[8].Inarecentstudy,thepotentialofusingtheDeadSeaasalargenaturalsolarpondforgenerationofelectricityinJordanwasexplored[9].Kribusetal.[10]haveshownnewsolarpowerplantconceptbyincorporatingnewdevelopmentsofsolarpoweroptics,highperformanceairreceivers,andsolar-to-gasturbineinterface.Intermsofeconomicalpointofview,Kolb[11]foundhybridpowertowerstobesuperiortosolar-onlyplantswiththesamefieldsize.Thereisanumberofsolarthermalpowerplantsinoperationaroundtheworld.Theyarefoundtobeoneofthemosteconomicalsystemsforgeneratingelectricity[12,13].Recently,theco-generationofelectricityandpotablewaterbyutilizationofsolarenergywascarriedout[14,15].Thiskindofsystemlooksattractiveinremoteareaswherebothwaterisscaresandelectricitygridisnotavailable.Thesystemiscapableofproducing30MWeormore.4.ElectricalpowerproductionusingwindenergyItisverywellestablishedthatwindenergyresourceislargeandgloballywidespread.Fordifferentapplications,itisclearthatwindenergycanbecompetitiveinmanylocations[16–18].Windenergycanbeusedinmanyapplicationssuchaswaterpumping[19],andwaterdesalination[20].Itcanalsobeusedfortheelectricalpowergenerationusingwindenergyconversionsystem[21].Windpowerisexpectedtobeoneoftheleastexpensiveformsofnewelectricalgenerationinthetwenty-firstcentury[22].WithglobaleffortstobecometoughonfossilfuelrelatedenergysystemsandtoreducetheemissionsofCO2significantly,thiswillmostlikelyintroducelowercostwindsystems.Forexample,largewindpowerplantsatgoodwindsitesusingemergingtechnologiescandeliverelectricityintoutilitygridatlowpricesthatarebecomingcompetitivewiththoseofconventionalpowergeneration.Windpowerplantscanusehundredsofwindturbinesthatrangeinsizefrom50to500kWeachlocatedinsomeremoteareas.Theplant’scomputerizedandcontrolcenteroperatessimilartofossilfuelplants,exceptitdoesnothavetobeinsightofturbines.Inarecentstudyamodelofwindpowerplantforisolatedlocationwaspresented[23].Increasesinthepricesoffuelandcostoffossilfuelplantsandinrelyinglessonnon-renewableenergyresources,decreasethevalueandcostofwindpowergenerationsystemssignificantly[24,25].TherearenumberofsitesinJordanwithpotentiallyhighwindspeeds,thatcanbeutilizedforthispurpose[26,27].Habalietal.[27]havepresentedanevaluationofwindenergyinJordananditsapplicationforelectricalpowergeneration.Atotalof11windsiteswereconsideredcoveringtheentirecountry.ThethreemostpotentialsitesinJordanarefoundtobeRasMuneef,Mafraq,andAqaba.Theyhavewindspeedsthatrangefrom4to23msthroughout80%ofthewholeyear.5.Hydro-electricpowerplantsHydro-electricpowerplantscanprovideabasisforevaluatingthepotentialofrenewablesourcesofenergy.Whencomparedtootherthermalpowerplants,theyarefoundtobeconventionalandreliable.Somecountriesutilizethisformoffreenaturalenergyintousefultypeofelectricalpower.Forexample,11%oftheelectricpowerproducedintheUSAwasprovidedbyhydro-electricpower[4].EgyptandTurkey,countriesofthisregion,alsoutilizethistypeofpowerforgeneratingelectricityatlowcosts.Anumberofstudieswereinvolvedinutilizinghydro-powerinJordanforthepurposeofelectricityproduction[28],waterdesalination[29,30],andbothelectricityproductionandwaterdesalination[8,31].Thesestudies,mainly,consideredthelinkageofRedandDeadSeaswithacanaltogeneratehydro-power.TheDeadSeaisabout400mbelowsealevel(BSL),itisroughly200kmtothenorthoftheGulfofAqaba.ItisanextensionoftheRedSea.TheDeadSeahasnooutlet;itswaterlevelisafunctionofinflowandevaporationofwater.ForthousandsofyearstheDeadSeamaintainedanequilibriumwiththeannualinflowandevaporationofwater.Thisresultedinaconstantsealevel.Forexample,in1930thesurfaceoftheDeadSeawasmeasuredatitshistoricalelevationofabout390mBSL.TheJordanRiverisconsideredtobethemaintributaryoftheDeadSea.Overtheyearsduetoincreaseinpopulationandagriculturaldevelopment,waterwasdivertedforirrigationintheJordanValleyandneighboringcountries.Therefore,itselevationwasforcedtodrop,drastically;in1993itwas408mBSL.Tohaltthistrend,itwillbenecessarytointroduceasubstantialamountofnewwatertothesea.SeawaterfromtheRedSeacanbeusedasasourceofwaferneededfordiversionintotheDeadSea.Thisdiversioncanbeusedtoeithermaintaintheseaatitscurrentlevelandthusstopitsdropping,oreventobringitbacktoitshistoricallevel.ThepowerobtainedfromsuchprocesscanbeusedtogenerateelectricityandallowevenmorefreshwatertobedivertedfromtheJordanRiver.6.NuclearpowerplantsItisverywellknownfactthatforthosecountriesthatrelyonbutdonothaveoil,nuclearpowerbecomesastrategicaswellaseconomicnecessity[3].Nuclearpowerplantscanpayfortheircapitalcostinafewshortyears.Thus,alessexpensiveelectricpowercanbeproducedwithoutrelyingonimportingforeignoil,oratleastthereductioninoilimport.Somebelievethatonedayoilwillbedepleted,andnuclearpowerbecomesamust.Therefore,itisimportanttostartthistechnologynowinordertoassurethecountrywouldnotbeleftbehindwhenthetimecomestohavetousenucleartechnology.Nuclearelectricityoffersanadvantagefromanenvironmentalpointofviewandairpollution.Ithaslessenvironmentalproblemsthatareassociatedwithoil-firedpowerplants.Thus,nuclearpowerisboundtobecomethechoiceofpowerforthefuture.Therearesomedifficultiesthatareassociatedwithnuclearpower,namely,wastedisposalandsafety.Ifthiskindofenergybecomespopularinmostcountriesaroundtheworld,solutionstotheseproblembecomeamustandthusbefound.7.TheanalytichierarchyprocessTheanalytichierarchyprocess(AHP),whichwasdevelopedbySaaty[32],hasbeenaneffectivetoolinstructuringandmodelingmulti-objectiveproblems.Forexample,ithasbeenappliedtobusinessdecisions[33],selectionofareasofresearchanddevelopmentprograms[34],realestateinvestments[32],waterpolicies[35],andwaterdesalinationtechnologies[29].AHPcanassistdecisionmakerstoevaluateaproblemintheformofahierarchyofreferencesthroughaseriesofpairwisecomparisonsofrelativecriteria.Briefly,relativeweightsaredeterminedthroughpairwisecomparison.Themethodcanbeappliedbybreakingdowntheunstructuredcomplexscorecardproblemsintocomponentparts.Hierarchicalordersarethenarrangedbyformingvaluetreestructures.Subjectivejudgmentsontherelativeimportanceofeachpartarerepresentedbyassigningnumericalvalues;thenumericalvaluesareselectedinaccordancetoFig.1.Thesejudgmentsarethensynthesizedintheuseofeigenvectorstodeterminewhichvariableshavethehighestpriority.ThedecisionregardingtheselectionofanoptimumsystemforelectricitypowergenerationinJordanwasevaluatedaccordingtobenefitsandcosts.Cost-tobenefitanalysisisobtainedbyseparatingcostsfrombenefitsandstructuringseparatehierarchiesforbenefitsandcosts.TheywereconstructedasshowninFigs.2and3.Theoverallobjective(goal)forbothhierarchieswastoselectanoptimumsystem(i.e.level1).Fig.2showsthecosthierarchy.Thecostcriteriaatlevel2arecostoffuel,hardwarecost,maintenanceandservice,auxiliarysystem,andenvironmentalconstraints.Fig.3presentsthebenefithierarchy,itincludesallpossiblebenefitsthatmaybederivedfromthevariouselectricalpowergenerationpowerplants,asappliedtoJordan.Level1ofFig.3istheselectionoftheoptimumsystemintermsofbenefits.Thebenefitcriteriaatlevel2aretheefficiencyofthesystem,itsreliability,itssafety,availabilityofthefuelusedinthesystem,itseffectonnationaleconomy,andsocialbenefits.ThethirdlevelofthecostandbenefithierarchiesrepresentsthevarioustechnologiesoralternativeswhicharegoingtobeconsideredforelectricalpowerproductioninJordan.Inadditiontofossilfuelfiredpowerplantsthesesystemsincludenuclear,solar,wind,andhydro-power.8.ResultsanddiscussionFig.2showsthatnuclearandfossilfuelpowerplantshavethehighestcost,withrelativeweightsof0.429and0.337,respectively.Ontheotherhandsolar,wind,andhydrohavemuchlowervaluesofrelativeweightsintherangeof0.077–0.079.Itisbasedonthecosthierarchywhichindicatesthatcostoffuelhasthehighestrelativeweightof0.375amongallothercostsconsidered.Itisfollowedbyhardwareandmaintenancecosts;theirrelativeweightis0.215each.Environmentalconstraintsandtheneedofauxiliarysystemhavethelowestrelativeweightswithvaluesof0.122and0.074,respectively.Benefitshierarchy(Fig.3)showsthatfossilfuelpowerplanthasthemostbenefitshavingarelativeweightof0.255.Itisfollowedbysolarandwindpowerplants;theircorrespondingrelativeweightsare0.162and0.130,respectively.System’sreliabilityhasthehighestrelativeweightof0.365.Itisfollowedbyavailabilityoffuel,system’sefficiency,itseffectonnationaleconomy,safetyandthensocialbenefits.Inordertogivethecompletepicturetheoverallcostpriorities(relativeweights)weredividedbythebenefitpriorities.Anoverallnormalizedcost-tobenefitratiowasobtainedforeachsystem.TheyarepresentedinFig.4.Itisshownthatnuclearelectricalpowerplantshavethehighestoverallcost-to-benefitratio,witharelativeweighsvalueof0.57.Fossilfuelpowerplantshavethesecondrelativeweightofabout0.23.Thebestsystemswithlowestcost-to-benefitratiosaresolar,followedbywindandthenhydrohavingrelativeweightsof0.058,0.061,and0.083,respectively.9.ConclusionsBasedonAHP,solarelectricalpowerplantshavethepotentialtobethebesttypeofsystemforelectricityproductioninJordan.Theyarefollowedbywindandthenhydro-powerplants.Onecanarguethatallthreetechnologiesoranyofthetwocombinedcanbeusedsincetheyhavecloserelativeweights.Ontheotherhandnuclearpowerplantshavetheworstratingandfossilfuelpowerplantsaresomewhatlittlebetterthannuclear.中文譯文利用層次分析法選擇各類發(fā)電廠摘要本文運用層次分析法(AHP)詳細地介紹了利用不同能源進行發(fā)電。這個理論認為,除了化石燃料發(fā)電廠,還有核能、太陽能、風能、水電。結果表明,成本效益比較好的太陽能、風能、水電可能是電力生產的最佳選擇。核能發(fā)電是最壞的選擇,緊隨其后的是化石燃料發(fā)電。1.介紹約旦是非石油生產的中東國家。它進口的石油來自鄰近國家。大部分的電力來自國家不同的電力行業(yè),這些電廠使用化石燃料。這些燃料不是完全進口的石油碳氫燃料,或部分地方(只有很小的百分比,例如天然氣)是碳氫燃料。1996年的電能消耗的價值達到了約6000美元/年。他數量的93%是由國家電力公司(NEPCO)供應的,國家電力公司是在這個國家主要的電力供應商。其他選擇的能源發(fā)電必須加以考慮。這些選項可以包括核能、太陽能、風能、水電能源。約旦太陽能和風能發(fā)電技術已在小規(guī)模實驗。這些可再生能源的利用系統主要的偏遠地區(qū)。他們生產的電力被用來個人申請，如診所、照明、教育的電視機。這個偏遠的村子位于約旦沙漠,是世界上最好的例子。所需的電能是完全由太陽能和風能轉化系統提供。在這篇文章中,除原油電廠，其他方案都被評估。提出了一個簡短的描述各種電站技術的方案，該方案包括核能、太陽能、風力和水力。通過使用決策支持系統分析多重標準,如層次分析法(AHP),試圖協助決策者評估使用上述技術,它在約旦可以是最適合電力生產的方案。2.化石燃料發(fā)電一般來說,化石燃料是不可再生的。他們來自地球的分解和化學轉化的有機材料。他們有三類:(1)固體,如煤和石油頁巖;(2)液體,如大多數石油化工產品。(3)氣體,例如天然氣。電力是最大的縮減燃料能源的代表。石油是一種化石燃料，在約但河中存在豐富。首先,就像所有的石油頁巖,它有一個較低的加熱價值。其次,約旦石油頁巖有硫磺含量,4-6%。由于石油的價格低，世界范圍內的利用率高的化石燃料,如石油頁巖。因此,石油頁巖發(fā)電廠可以不被認為是競爭的。在約旦除了小水電動力發(fā)電，石油和天然氣是主要的發(fā)電燃料。3.太陽能發(fā)電自20世紀70年代，太陽能已經在世界各地開始使用。許多國家把它作為解決環(huán)境污染和可能替代化石和核能的能源。因此,太陽能已經作為生產電力的對象。許多研究和經驗表明，太陽能發(fā)電是電力行業(yè)中最經濟發(fā)電形式。太陽能也能被轉換成電池,但是這個過程光伏電池是最方便的，但適用于小型應用。獨立光伏電源系統提出了電氣化偏遠地區(qū)的電力電網連接外供電系統[7]。另一方面,太陽能量可以轉化熱能，利用太陽能集熱器或集中器等。如把太陽能轉換成熱能，然后變成機械能，再轉化為電能。大量的電力也可以產生電池。這個類型的接收器,能認真考慮是:(1)中心的接收器,(2)分布式接收器和(3)太陽池。喬丹最喜歡享受中東國家漫長的陽光，當地的天氣已超過300萬里無云的日子。未來技術表明,死海本身可以作為450平方公里,2500兆瓦電廠，運行一個太陽能湖。最近的一份報告研究,死?？勺鳛闈撛诶玫拇笮吞烊惶柍?。從經濟的角度講,發(fā)現的混合動力塔只有太陽與同一領域的尺寸。有大量的太陽能熱發(fā)電廠在操作環(huán)游世界。他們發(fā)現是其中最經濟系統是用于太陽能發(fā)電。這類系統很有吸引力的地方都是水邊遠地區(qū)電網嚇人,不是可利用的。該系統能夠生產30MW電能或更多。4.風能發(fā)電風能非常好的一面在全球范圍內廣泛存。對于不同的應用程序,很明顯的是,風能可以在許多位置有競爭優(yōu)勢。風能可以應用在許多場合,如抽水、海水淡化。它還可以用于發(fā)電用風能量轉換系統。風力發(fā)電有望成為二十一世紀新電子產生的最便宜的形式。全球的化石燃料與相關的能量系統變得強硬,為減少排放的二氧化碳,風系統的介紹可能顯著降低成本。例如,大型的風力發(fā)電在風網站利用新興技術能提供公用電網電在低價競爭關系,成為傳統發(fā)電。風力發(fā)電廠可以用數以百計的風力渦輪，范圍大小從50到500千瓦各座落在一些遙遠的地區(qū)。工廠的計算機控制中心設有類似的化石燃料植物,除了它不需要的渦輪機。最近的研究模式是定位算法風力發(fā)電裝置。價格上漲的燃料和成本的化石燃料的依賴,在植物上的不可再生的能源資源,降低成本和價值的風力發(fā)電系統明顯。在約旦有潛在的高速度有數字的網站,可用于該目的。所提交的評估,風能在約旦和其申請電力。風地點被覆蓋了整個國家。這三個最具發(fā)展?jié)摿Φ牡攸c被發(fā)現是在約旦,易燃、臨亞喀巴灣。他們風速范圍從4至23日已經達到80%。5.水力發(fā)電水力發(fā)電廠可以對潛在的可再生能源提供了評估依據。相較于其他的火電廠,他們是傳統的和可靠的。一些國家利用這種形式的免費天然能量轉化為有用類型的電力。例如,在美國11%的電力生產是水電。埃及和土耳其國家的這一地區(qū),還將這種類型的動力用于在低成本發(fā)電。在約旦大量的研究是參加利用水力發(fā)電為目的的海水淡化,在這些研究成果的基礎上,主要考慮的紅河和死海的聯系與運河海產生水電。死海低于海平面(BSL)400米,大約200公里,北臨亞喀巴灣灣，它是一種擴展紅海。死海沒有出路；其水位是一個函數及水的蒸發(fā)。幾千年來,死海維護一個年度流入和蒸發(fā)水的平衡。這導致了一個常數。例如,在1930年死海的表面測量其歷史的高度大約390米BSL。約但河,被認為是死海的主要支流。在約旦河谷和灌溉的鄰國,多年來由于人口和農業(yè)發(fā)展增加,水被轉移。因此,它的海拔被迫大幅下降,1993年,BSL408米。來阻止這種趨勢,必須引進大量的新水流入大海。從紅海海水可以用來作為一種來源需要移師死海。這種轉移可以用來保持在海洋目前的水平,從而阻止其下降,甚至帶它回到歷史的水平。從這樣的過程中獲得的力量可以用來發(fā)電,更多的新鮮水要從約但河引入。6.核能發(fā)電在這些國家,依靠油卻沒有，這是非常有名的事實。發(fā)展核電已成為戰(zhàn)略以及發(fā)展經濟必要。核能電廠有能力在短短數年支付他們的資本成本。因此,一個更便宜的電力可以不用依賴進口國外石油,或至少減少石油進口。有些人相信有一天油會枯竭了,核能成為必然趨勢。因此,重要的是開始這個技術,以保證國家將不會被甩在后面的時候要用核技術。核能發(fā)電提供一個優(yōu)勢,從環(huán)境角度和空氣污染。它擁有更少的環(huán)境問題與原油電廠。因此,核能是注定要成為選擇的力量以備將來之用。核能有一些困難，即廢物處置和安全。如果這種能量在世界上多數國家變得流行,解決這些問題的方案,從而成為必須的研究。7.層次分析法層次分析法(AHP)在構建和建模多目標的問題上已經是一個有效的工具。例如,它已經應用于商業(yè)決策，選擇領域的研究和發(fā)展項目、水政策和海水淡化技術。層次分析法(AHP)可以幫助決策者評估一系列問題的參考比較,通過一系列的相對標準。簡要分析,通過兩兩比較確定權重。該方法可以被分解成計分卡問題的組成部分。然后安排的層次訂單價值形成樹形結構。各部分的相對重要性由指定的數值主觀判斷。這些判斷是利用向量來確定哪些因素已經具有最高優(yōu)先級。這個決定對于選擇最佳電力系統電力被評為根據收益和成本，費用由分離層次構建獨立的收益和成本。整體目標都是選擇一個最佳等級系統。標準費用成本的二級燃料是硬件成本、維護、維修、輔助系統、環(huán)境的約束。據分析,它包括所有益處的等級可能來自不同的發(fā)電核電站。受益于二級燃料是標準的系統的效率,其使用燃料系統的可靠性、安全性、有效性，是影響國民經濟和社會效益的主要因素。選擇或代表第三級的成本與效益的各種層次技術,要考慮在約旦的電力生產。此外,化石燃料發(fā)電廠這些系統包括核、太陽能、風能、水電。8.結果與討論研究顯示，核和化石燃料是成本最高的電廠,相對權重0.3370.429。另一方面太陽能、風能、水電有較低的價值，相對權重在0.077-0.079的范圍內。它是基于層次成本在所有其它費用表明燃料成本最高的，相對權重0.375。緊隨其后的是硬件和維護成本；他們的相對權重是0.215。環(huán)境的約束和需要的輔助系統的權重和價值觀的最低0.074和0.122。福利層次表明,化石燃料發(fā)電廠最大的利益有一個相對重量0.255。是緊隨其后的太陽能、風能,其相應的相對權重0.130、0.162。系統的可靠性具有最高的相對權重0.365。緊隨其后的是觸手可及的燃料,系統的效率,其影響國民經濟和社會效益、,安全。為了給這個總成本(相對權重)除以完整的優(yōu)先效益考慮的問題，每個系統的全面規(guī)范成本效益得到了。理論分析和實驗結果表明,核電有最高的整體成本效益比例,與一個相對重量價值0.57?；剂习l(fā)電廠有第二個相對權重0.23。最好的系統以及最低的成本效益為太陽能,緊隨其后的是風能和海能，相對權重分別是0.061，0.058，0.083，。9.結論基于層次分析法(AHP),在約旦發(fā)電，太陽能電力有潛力成為最好的系統，其次是風,然后水力發(fā)電廠。有人說，所有的三種技術或任何兩個組合可以用,因為他們有密切相關的重量。附錄=1\*ROMANI外文文獻翻譯(1)原文：ARobustVision-basedMovingTargetDetectionandTrackingSystemAbstractInthispaperwepresentanewalgorithmforreal~timedetectionandtrackingofmovingtargetsinterrestrialscenesusingamobilecamera.Ouralgorithmconsistsoftwomodes:detectionandtracking.Inthedetectionmode,backgroundmotionisestimatedandcompensatedusinganaffinetransformation.Theresultantmotionrectifiedimageisusedfordetectionofthetargetlocationusingsplitandmergealgorithm.Wealsocheckedotherfeaturesforprecisedetectionofthetargetlocation.Whenthetargetisidentified,algorithmswitchestothetrackingmode.ModifiedMoravecoperatorisappliedtothetargettoidentifyfeaturepoints.Thefeaturepointsarematchedwithpointsintheregionofinterestinthecurrentframe.Thecorrespondingpointsarefurtherrefinedusingdisparityvectors.Thetrackingsystemiscapableoftargetshaperecoveryandthereforeitcansuccessfullytracktargetswithvaryingdistancefromcameraorwhilethecameraiszooming.Localandregionalcomputationshavemadethealgorithmsuitableforreal-timeapplications.Therefinedpointsdefinethenewpositionofthetargetinthecurrentframe.Experimentalresultshaveshownthatthealgorithmisreliableandcansuccessfullydetectandtracktargetsinmostcases.Keywords:realtimemovingtargettrackinganddetection,featurematching,affinetransformation,vehicletracking,mobilecameraimage.1IntroductionVisualdetectionandtrackingisoneofthemostchallengingissuesincomputervision.Applicationofthevisualdetectionandtrackingarenumerousandtheyspanawiderangeofapplicationsincludingsurveillancesystem,vehicletrackingandaerospaceapplication,tonameafew.Detectionandtrackingofabstracttargets(e.g.vehiclesingeneral)isaverycomplexproblemanddemandssophisticatedsolutionsusingconventionalpatternrecognitionandmotionestimationmethods.Motion-basedsegmentationisoneofthepowerfultoolsfordetectionandtrackingofmovingtargets.Itissimpletodetectmovingobjectsinimagesequencesobtainedbystationarycamera[1],[2],theconventionaldifference-basedmethodsfailtodetectmovingtargetswhenthecameraisalsomoving.Inthecaseofmobilecameraalloftheobjectsintheimagesequencehaveanapparentmotion,whichisrelatedtothecameramotion.Anumberofmethodshavebeenproposedfordetectionofthemovingtargetsinmobilecameraincludingdirectcameramotionparametersestimation[3],opticalflow[4],[5],andgeometrictransformation[6],[7].Directmeasurementofcameramotionparametersisthebestmethodforcancellationoftheapparentbackgroundmotionbutinsomeapplicationitisnotpossibletomeasuretheseparametersdirectly.Geometrictransformationmethodshavelowcomputationcostandaresuitableforrealtimepurpose.Inthesemethods,auniformbackgroundmotionisassumed.Anaffinemotionmodelcouldbeusedtomodelthismotion.Whentheapparentmotionofthebackgroundisestimated,itcanbeexploitedtolocatemovingobjects.Inthispaperweproposeanewmethodfordetectionandtrackingofmovingtargetsusingamobilemonocularcamera.Ouralgorithmhastwomodes:detectionandtracking.Thispaperisorganizedasfollows.InSection2,thedetectionprocedureisdiscussed.Section3describesthetrackingmethod.ExperimentalresultsareshowninSection4andconclusionappearsinSection5.2TargetdetectionInthedetectionmodeweusedaffinetransformationandLMedS(Leastmediansquared)methodforrobustestimationoftheapparentbackgroundmotion.Afterthecompensationofthebackgroundmotion,weapplysplitandmergealgorithmtothedifferenceofcurrentframeandthetransformedpreviousframetoobtainanestimationofthetargetpositions.Ifnotargetisfound,thenitmeanseitherthereisnomovingtargetinthesceneor,therelativemotionofthetargetistoosmalltobedetected.Inthelattercase,itispossibletodetectthetargetbyadjustingtheframerateofthecamera.Thealgorithmaccomplishesthisautomaticallybyanalyzingtheproceedingframesuntilamajordifferenceisdetected.Wedesignedavotingmethodtoverifythetargetsbasedonaprioriknowledgeofthetargets.Forthecaseofvehicledetectionweusedverticalandhorizontalgradientstolocateinterestingfeaturesaswellasconstraintonareaofthetargetasdiscussedinthissection.2.1BackgroundmotionestimationAffinetransformation[8]hasbeenusedtomodelmotionofthecamera.Thismodelincludesrotation,scalingandtranslation.2~Daffinetransformationisdescribedasfollow:(1)where(xi,yi)arelocationsofpointsinthepreviousframeand(Xi,Yi)arelocationsofpointsinthecurrentframeanda1~a6aremotionparameters.Thistransformationhassixparameters;therefore,threematchingpairsarerequiredtofullyrecoverthemotion.Itisnecessarytoselectthethreepointsfromthestationaryback~groundtoassureanaccuratemodelforcameramotion.WeusedMoravecoperator[9]tofinddistinguishedfeaturepointstoensureprecisematch.Moravecoperatorselectspixelswiththemaximumdirectionalgradientinthemin~maxsense.Ifthemovingtargetsconstituteasmallarea(i.e.lessthan50%)oftheimage,thenLMedSalgorithmcanbeappliedtodeterminetheaffinetransformationparametersoftheapparentbackgroundmotionbetweentwoconsecutiveframesaccordingtothefollowingprocedure.SelectNrandomfeaturepointfrompreviousframe,andusethestandardnormalizedcrosscorrelationmethodtolocatethecorrespondingpointsinthecurrentframe.Normalizedcorrelationequationisgivenby:(2)hereandaretheaverageintensitiesofthepixelsinthetworegionsbeingcompared,andthesummationsarecarriedoutoverallpixelswithinsmallwindowscenteredonthefeaturepoints.Thevaluerintheaboveequationmeasuresthesimilaritybetweentworegionsandisbetween1and-1.Sinceitisassumedthatmovingobjectsarelessthan50%ofthewholeimage,thereforemostoftheNpointswillbelongtothestationarybackground.2.SelectMrandomsetsofthreefeaturepoints:(xi,yi,Xi,Yi)fori=1,2,3,fromtheNfeaturepointsobtainedinstep1.(xi,yi)arecoordinatesofthefeaturepointsinthepreviousframe,and(Xi,Yi)aretheircorrespondsincurrentframe.3.Foreachsetcalculatetheaffinetransformationparameters.4.TransformNfeaturepointsinstep1usingMaffinetransformations,obtainedinstep3andcalculatetheMmediansofsquareddifferencesbetweencorrespondingpointsandtransformedpoints.Thenselecttheaffineparametersforwhichthemedianofsquareddifferenceistheminimum.Accordingtotheaboveprocedure,theprobabilitypthatatleastonedatasetinthebackgroundandtheircorrectcorrespondingpointsareobtainedisderivedfromthefollowingequation[7]:(3)where(<0.5)istheratioofthemovingobjectregionstowholeimageandqistheprobabilitythatcorrespondingpointsarecorrectlyfind.In[7]ithasbeenshownthattheabove