商貿(mào)零售行業(yè)專題研究報告：美妝偏淡、把握龍頭新銳品牌成長黃金珠寶穩(wěn)健、關注金價

內(nèi)容目錄1、妝淡偏、分化劇把集化頭&銳牌長遇 4淡需走、品類零速緩 4板總：季和利增放緩 4子塊品商加劇原商頭續(xù)麗增，產(chǎn)/運業(yè)績續(xù)壓 6、牌：化，毛率續(xù)化普加碼銷入累利現(xiàn) 6、料：頭Q3淡季淡成性步顯 8、產(chǎn)：績承壓關訂回下能爬帶的利復 9、運商增壓，找品/品牌拓平機會 92、金寶業(yè)穩(wěn)長，金品續(xù)領 10高數(shù)下Q3銀寶類零速低黃產(chǎn)品增動主導 10黃產(chǎn)景延渠道張比速穩(wěn)健 10、盈性：金價上行+產(chǎn)品及渠道結構影毛率表現(xiàn)，收入增攤薄用、盈利能力同升 、道：Q3店比提或健全目望順達成 133、資議 144、險示 14化品 14黃珠寶 14附錄化品塊股本 15圖表目錄圖表1：Q334圖表2：Q3貓+寶音美類銷額比-19/+73、幅比大續(xù)高增4圖表3：3Q23品商/料商生商塊收+8/-225圖表4：3Q23品商/料商塊母利同-9........................................5圖表5：Q31042.45圖表6：3Q239.99+25圖表7：3Q23+5.36PCT6圖表8：3Q2310.730.17PCT6圖表9：3Q23+4.34PCT...............................................610：3Q23化妝品板塊銷售費用率同比+4PCT、主要系品牌商營銷投入普遍加碼（單位：PCT）.......611：3Q23品商收同比+8.5增環(huán)緩.............................................712：3Q239.2713：3Q2311.83.4PCT714：3Q23品牌商盈利能力同比下降........................................................715：3Q23品牌商毛利率持續(xù)優(yōu)化..........................................................7圖表16：，3Q23+5.4PCT..............................7圖表17：3Q232.2PCT8圖表18：3Q233.6PCT8圖表19：3Q231.9PCT8圖表20：3Q238圖表21：3Q2313.28圖表22：3Q23668圖表23：3Q23+7.9PCT9圖表24：3Q234.9PCT.............................9圖表25：3Q239圖表26：3Q239圖表27：3Q23+6.3PCT.........................................9圖表28：3Q23-2.8PCT...............................9圖表29：9圖表30：3Q239圖表31：3Q23+3.3PCT.......................................9圖表32：3Q23+0.9PCT9圖表33：以絕對值推算、Q3限額以上金銀珠寶類零售額同比持平.................................10圖表34：1-9M23金銀珠寶類社零增速領跑其他可選品類.........................................10圖表35：Q3金飾條和幣費同-8.8/-4.1.......................................10圖表36：Q3（Au9999）+19.610圖表37：黃金珠寶板塊個股樣本..............................................................11圖表38：1-3Q23+18.712.211圖表39：Q356410.22110.311圖表40：Q315.93.5+30.111圖表41：黃金珠寶板塊1-3Q23業(yè)績增速靚麗...................................................11圖表42：1-3Q23黃金珠寶板塊毛利率同比+1.1PCT..............................................12圖表43：1-3Q23黃金珠寶板塊歸母凈利率同比+0.5PCT..........................................12圖表44：3Q23黃金珠寶板塊毛利率同比提振、盈利能力提升.....................................12圖表45：收入增長攤薄費用、3Q23黃金珠寶板塊銷售/管理費用率同比下降........................12圖表46：3Q23黃金珠寶板塊銷售費用率同比-0.29PCT...........................................13圖表47：1-3Q23黃金珠寶板塊管理費用率同比-0.3PCT..........................................13圖表48：Q3開店環(huán)比提速或穩(wěn)健.............................................................13圖表49：化妝品板塊個股樣本................................................................151H/1-3Q23化品零額同+8.6/+6.8，計絕值算單Q3比+3、...圖表1：化妝品類社零增速放緩，從累計絕對值推算、單Q3同比+3...類別2023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-09環(huán)比變化2年CAGR總體社會消費品零售總額3.5%10.6%18.4%12.7%3.1%2.5%4.6%5.5%0.90%4.0%限額以上企業(yè)消費品零售總額2.1%10.1%19.0%12.5%2.3%0.3%3.1%5.2%2.10%5.6%必需糧油、食品類9.0%4.4%1.0%-0.7%5.4%5.5%4.5%8.3%3.80%8.4%飲料類5.2%-5.1%-3.4%-0.7%3.6%3.1%0.8%8.0%7.20%6.4%煙酒類6.1%9.0%14.9%8.6%9.6%7.2%4.3%23.1%18.80%6.0%中西藥類19.3%11.7%3.7%7.1%6.6%3.7%3.7%4.5%0.80%6.9%可選化妝品類3.8%9.6%24.3%11.7%4.8%-4.1%9.7%1.6%-8.10%-0.8%金銀珠寶類5.9%37.4%44.7%244%7.8%-10.0%7.2%7.7%0.50%4.8%服裝鞋帽針紡織品類5.4%17.7%32.4%17.6%6.9%2.3%4.5%9.9%5.40%4.6%耐用家用電器和音像器材類-1.9%-1.4%4.7%0.1%4.5%-5.5%-2.9%-2.3%0.60%-4.2%家具類5.2%3.5%3.4%5.0%1.2%0.1%4.8%0.5%-4.30%-3.5%通訊器材類-8.2%1.8%14.6%274%6.6%3.0%8.5%0.4%-8.10%3.1%汽車類-9.4%11.5%38.0%242%-1.1%-1.5%1.1%2.8%1.70%8.4%來源：國家統(tǒng)計局天貓+淘寶受“618”大促虹吸效應影響，Q3美妝品類銷售額同比-19、降幅環(huán)比擴大；品牌商力疊平期趣電轉率對高，Q3抖音妝膚目額同增70、71。圖表2：Q3天貓+淘寶/抖音美妝類目銷售額同比-19/+73、降幅環(huán)比擴大/延續(xù)高增圖表2：Q3天貓+淘寶/抖音美妝類目銷售額同比-19/+73、降幅環(huán)比擴大/延續(xù)高增700600500400300200100

淘系（億元） 抖音（億元） 淘系yoy（右軸）抖音yoy（右軸） 合計yoy（右軸）

120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%0 -60%來源：魔鏡數(shù)據(jù)，蘿卜投資，Q3104/9.972.4/+107.4，/+2。圖表3：3Q23品牌商/原料商/生產(chǎn)商板塊營收同比

圖表4：3Q23品牌商/原料商板塊歸母凈利潤同比-+8/+13+8/+139

代運營 品牌商 原料商 生產(chǎn)商 板塊總體2020 2021 2022 1Q23 2Q23 3Q232020 2021 2022 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23

代運營 品牌商 原料商 板塊總體（未含松份）2020 2021 2022 1Q23 2Q23 3Q232020 2021 2022 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23來源：， 來源：，圖表5：Q3104同比+2.4

圖表6：3Q239.99（青松股份、同比+20

化妝品板塊營（元） yoy（右軸）2020 2021 2022 1Q23 2Q23

20%18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%

0

化妝品板塊凈利（百萬元）yoy（右軸）yoy剔除青松（右軸）2020 2021 2022 1Q23 2Q23

120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%來源：， 來源：，毛利端：3Q23化妝品板塊毛利率同比+5.36PCT、持續(xù)優(yōu)化。分板塊看，美妝品牌商/代運營商/生產(chǎn)商/原料商毛利率同比+5.4/+3.3/+6.3/+7.9PCT。1）美妝品牌商：產(chǎn)品升級&結構改善、聚焦大單品策略，毛利率同比提升；2）代運營商/生產(chǎn)商：毛利率低基數(shù)下修復；3）原料商：防曬劑新老品價格鎖定高位、高毛利新品占比提升，全球防曬劑龍頭科思股份毛利率同比顯著提升。費用端：3Q23化妝品板塊期間費用率同比+4.34PCT，其中銷售費用率同比+4PCT，主要系品牌商銷售費用率同比+3.6PCT、營銷投入普遍加碼。凈利端：3Q2310.15.2PCT歸母凈利率10.73、同比-0.17PCT，其中美妝品牌商同比-3.4PCT6.8PCT。化妝品板塊毛利率毛利率變動（PCT化妝品板塊毛利率毛利率變動（PCT，右）

圖表83Q2310.730.17PCT55%55%53%6.05.04.03.02.01.00.0(1.0)(2.0)15%化妝品板塊凈利率凈利率變動（PCT，右）剔除青松凈利率變動（PCT、右）6.054%4.010%52%2.051%0.050%5%(2.0)49%48%0%(4.0)2020 2021 2022 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 2020 2021 2022 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23來源：， 來源：，圖表9：3Q23化妝品板塊期間費率同比+4.34PCT 圖表10：3Q23化妝品板塊銷售費率同比+4PCT、主要系品牌商營銷投入普遍加碼（單位：PCT）5%0%

2020 2021 2022 1Q23 2Q23

5.0化妝品板塊費用率費用率變動（化妝品板塊費用率費用率變動（PCT，右）3.02.01.00.0(1.0)(2.0)(3.0)

5.04.03.02.01.00.0

管理費用率變動 銷售費用率變動 研發(fā)費用率變動2020 2021 2022 23Q1 23Q2 23Q32020 2021 2022 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3來源：， 來源：，、子板塊：品牌商分化加劇，原料商龍頭延續(xù)靚麗增長，生產(chǎn)商/代運營商業(yè)績繼續(xù)承壓3Q23+8.5-9.2分化持續(xù)加深，龍頭珀萊雅增長穩(wěn)?。ㄊ杖?利潤均同增20+，優(yōu)化產(chǎn)品及渠道+聚焦組織效率提升、貝泰妮/福瑞達/丸美股份營收增長環(huán)比提速，持續(xù)加碼營銷推廣、上海家化增，萊營/母潤Q3同比2124白特霜新推持續(xù)探Q3（+40。Q3逆勢靚麗增長、營收同比+31.6；戀火勢能持續(xù)釋放+主品牌丸美直播渠道亮眼，丸美股Q346.1，利潤率延續(xù)Q2&水羊股份Q3營收同比-5，受匯率波動、轉債利息支付等拖累、歸母凈利潤同比+4.03。2020202120221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q232020202120221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23上海家化-7%9%-7%0%-24%1%-3%-6%3%-11%珀萊雅20%23%38%39%35%22%50%29%46%21%丸美股份-3%2%-3%-5%-7%24%-9%25%34%46%水羊股份54%35%-6%28%-11%-4%-19%0%8%-5%貝泰妮36%53%25%59%37%21%11%7%21%26%敷爾佳18%4%7%2%---4%5%7%-5%巨子生物25%30%53%----63%-華熙生物112%147%39%77%17%-8%-福瑞達120%117%32%95%45%12%7%13%7%32%品牌商18%31%15%20%11%18%13%7.1%18.3%8.5%2020202120221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23上海家化-23%51%-27%18%虧損16%-31%16%269%-40%珀萊雅21%21%42%44%19%44%52%31%110%24%丸美股份-10%-47%-30%-35%-42%扭虧為盈-49%20%1%1367%水羊股份415%69%-47%36%-29%-37%-94%25%119%4%貝泰妮32%59%22%86%34%35%5%8%17%6%敷爾佳-2%24%5%-7%---10%-1%-1%-37%巨子生物50%0%21%----53%品牌商13%19.2%6.7%16.8%12%115.9%-6.0%14.8%56.1%-9.2%來源：，（注：1）福瑞達/華熙生物僅包含化妝品業(yè)務；2）1Q22-2Q23品牌商營收增速未包含華熙生物化妝品業(yè)務、巨子生物）

來源：，聚焦大單品+產(chǎn)品結構優(yōu)化，毛利率持續(xù)提升、3Q23同比+5.4PCT。1）頭部公司：大單促銷活動，珀萊雅Q30.67PCT、貝泰妮Q3+2.2PCT78.732）Q3毛利率同比+7.55PCT72.4Q360.32+4.7PCT0.71PCT202120221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23上海家化8.5%6.6%9.4%202120221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23上海家化8.5%6.6%9.4%-2.6%9.5%9.1%11.6%4.3%6.4%珀萊雅12.4%12.8%12.6%10.1%14.8%13.3%12.8%14.5%15.2%丸美股份13.9%10.1%17.1%11.9%0.9%9.2%16.5%8.9%9.0%水羊股份4.7%2.6%4.0%3.6%3.2%0.4%5.0%7.3%3.5%貝泰妮21.5%21.0%18.1%20.1%14.5%25.2%18.3%19.4%12.1%敷爾佳48.8%47.9%45.7%42.3%58.5%-42.7%39.2%38.8%巨子生物53.2%42.2%44.4%40.9%41.5%-品牌商凈利率16.0%15.4%13.0%10.1%15.2%13.0%13.9%13.2%11.8%20221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23上海家化-1.8%1.4%-8.2%1.2%-3.5%2.2%6.9%-3.1%珀萊雅0.4%0.5%-1.4%2.2%0.2%0.2%4.4%0.4%丸美股份-3.8%-7.7%-7.1%18.8%-7.1%-0.6%-2.9%8.1%水羊股份-2.1%0.2%-0.9%-1.7%-4.9%1.0%3.7%0.3%貝泰妮-0.5%2.6%-0.5%1.6%-1.4%0.3%-0.7%-2.3%敷爾佳-1.0%-4.2%--2.9%-3.1%-19.7%巨子生物-11.1%--2.9%-品牌商-0.6%2.7%0.3%7.6%-1.9%1.0%3.1%-3.4%來源：， 來源：，圖表15：3Q23品牌商毛利率持續(xù)化 圖表16：產(chǎn)品結構改善+聚焦大，3Q23品牌商毛利202120221Q22202120221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23上海家化59%57%63%56%54%54%61%59%58%珀萊雅66%70%68%69%72%70%70%71%73%丸美股份64%68%67%71%65%69%69%71%72%水羊股份52%53%54%56%56%48%54%60%60%貝泰妮76%75%78%76%77%73%76%75%79%敷爾佳82%83%83%83%82%-83%83%82%巨子生物87%84%85%84%84%-品牌商毛利66%68%66%66%63%64%66%68%69%20221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23上海家化-1.6%-2.1%-7.5%-4.7%8.1%-1.5%2.8%3.5%珀萊雅3.2%3.2%5.5%5.9%0.2%2.5%2.3%0.7%丸美股份4.4%2.8%7.2%7.6%2.5%2.0%-0.1%7.5%水羊股份1.1%2.3%1.8%-2.0%1.2%-0.6%4.0%4.7%貝泰妮-0.8%-0.3%-0.4%0.2%-2.0%-1.7%-1.3%2.2%敷爾佳1.1%-----0.7%-0.3%-0.4%巨子生物-2.9%-----1.0%-品牌商1.6%3.6%6.6%5.1%7.2%0.3%2.2%5.4%來源：， 來源：，1）公司：珀萊雅Q3銷售費用率同比-1.1/-0.3PCT；2）//Q3銷售費用率同比+11.7/+7.4/+5.7/+4.9PCT。圖表17：3Q23品牌商期間費用率比+2.2PCT 圖表18：3Q23品牌商銷售費用率比+3.6PCT、營銷投20221Q222Q2220221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23上海家化-2.9%-6.0%-1.5%-8.2%5.8%-0.5%1.0%12.6%珀萊雅0.5%-0.2%-0.9%5.2%-1.1%2.0%1.0%-3.2%丸美股份9.7%12.1%11.8%-10.2%14.0%2.3%1.8%2.2%水羊股份3.4%2.1%2.4%-1.1%7.8%-0.7%-2.8%3.6%貝泰妮2.0%0.8%2.0%0.9%1.7%-0.5%2.9%1.3%敷爾佳6.0%----4.9%3.2%6.2%品牌商1.5%0.2%-1.4%-1.8%4.6%0.6%0.9%2.2%20221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23上海家化-1.2%-3.6%-2.9%-6.3%10.8%0.9%-0.9%11.7%珀萊雅0.6%0.7%0.3%2.1%-0.2%0.9%1.2%-1.1%丸美股份7.4%8.4%7.9%-10.4%13.3%5.0%3.4%5.7%水羊股份2.5%3.1%2.0%-0.1%4.4%-2.1%-3.0%4.9%貝泰妮-0.9%2.1%-0.9%-0.5%-3.3%-0.4%1.9%-0.3%敷爾佳6.0%----3.5%2.3%7.4%巨子生物7.5%----7.8%-品牌商1.4%1.3%-2.0%-1.9%4.1%0.7%0.4%3.6%來源：， 來源：，圖表19：3Q23品牌商管理費用率同比-1.9PCT、持續(xù)推進組織運營效率提升

圖表20：3Q23品牌商研發(fā)費用率同比持平20221Q222Q223Q2220221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23上海家化-1.5%-1.7%1.3%-2.0%-4.6%-0.6%0.3%-0.4%珀萊雅0.0%-0.6%-1.8%3.6%-0.6%0.7%0.3%-2.3%丸美股份0.8%1.2%1.7%-1.8%0.7%-2.1%-1.7%-3.0%水羊股份0.2%-0.2%-0.2%-0.7%1.3%-0.2%1.1%-3.3%貝泰妮0.7%-0.4%0.8%0.0%1.3%0.1%0.1%0.2%敷爾佳0.2%0.9%---3.1%2.0%4.3%巨子生物0.0%-----2.2%-品牌商-0.3%-0.9%-0.1%-0.1%-0.6%-0.2%0.3%-1.9%20221Q213Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23上海家化0.1%2.0%0.7%0.0%0.2%0.6%0.1%珀萊雅0.4%2.0%0.6%-0.1%0.8%-0.3%-0.3%丸美股份0.2%2.9%-1.3%0.8%-0.6%0.0%-0.7%水羊股份0.6%2.1%1.1%0.2%0.6%-0.4%-0.8%貝泰妮2.3%4.5%1.8%3.7%0.1%0.9%1.6%敷爾佳0.6%--0.2%0.3%1.0%巨子生物0.3%--0.2%-品牌商0.7%2.2%0.9%1.0%0.4%0.2%0.0%來源：， 來源：，Q3科思股份：防曬劑淡季出貨仍旺盛，盈利能力持續(xù)優(yōu)化。傳統(tǒng)防曬劑市場地位穩(wěn)固、價3Q23毛利率50.1同比+10.93PCT、環(huán)比繼續(xù)+0.43PCT；歸母凈利率31.79、同比+6.76PCT、環(huán)比繼續(xù)潤同+36/+73。Q3曬劑老再產(chǎn)戰(zhàn)Q4旺季個24圖表21：原料商3Q23營收同增13.2 圖表22：科思股份表現(xiàn)亮眼動料商3Q23歸母凈利潤同增66同增66202120221Q22202120221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23科思股份8.1%61.8%59.6%63.0%82.5%48.7%42.3%47.9%36.3%麗臣實業(yè)15.9%10.8%10.1%9.1%12.2%11.2%11.8%16.4%1.6%原料商13.6%25.3%25.3%24.5%28.8%22.7%23.8%28.2%13.2%202120221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23科思股份-18.7%192.1%21.0%131%325%535%176%114%73%麗臣實業(yè)-19.6%-32.9%-49.3%-42.4%-21.1%-14.7%27.5%57.2%36.2%原料商-19.2%63.0%-18.1%48.1%126.1%149.1%125.1%104%66%來源：， 來源：，圖表23：原料商毛利率持續(xù)化、3Q23同比+7.9PCT 圖表24：原料商盈利能力持優(yōu)、3Q23板塊歸母凈利率同比+4.9PCT202120221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23科思股份麗臣實業(yè)原料商2021-4.0%-2.9%-3.3%20229.8%-2.6%2.4%1Q22-4.5%-5.5%-4.4%2Q226.4%-2.7%1.6%3Q2214.3%-1.3%4.5%4Q2219.9%-1.5%6.4%1Q2313.2%0.7%6.8%2Q239.8%1.0%5.9%3Q236.8%1.1%4.9%科思股份-6.2%9.9%-7.0%2.1%15.4%24.7%22.8%15.6%10.9%麗臣實業(yè)-3.4%-4.1%-8.0%-5.9%-2.0%-1.8%-0.1%0.4%2.6%原料商-4.4%1.9%-6.6%-1.5%4.9%8.4%11.0%8.3%7.9%來源：， 來源：，嘉亨家化：Q3收入/6.4/-42.5產(chǎn)期、產(chǎn)能利用率較低。靜待訂單回暖下湖州新產(chǎn)能爬坡、一體化服務優(yōu)勢凸顯，規(guī)模圖表25：生產(chǎn)商3Q23營收增長承壓 圖表26：青松股份大幅減虧生商3Q23業(yè)績延續(xù)承壓202120221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23202120221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23青松股份-4.4%-21.0%-19.7%-30.9%-3.7%-24.6%-42.2%-27.7%-28.8%青松股份-297.8%18.6%-167.2%-208.7%-704.4%虧損收窄虧損收窄虧損收窄大幅減虧嘉亨家化19.9%-9.4%0.6%-21.3%-4.6%-12.4%-14.8%10.7%-6.4%嘉亨家化4.0%-28.3%-19.5%-40.3%-20.2%-34.7%-67.5%-16.4%-42.5%生產(chǎn)商-24.1%-3.0%-15.1%-29.0%-4.0%-21.7%-34.9%-19.2%-22.2%生產(chǎn)商-247.0%17.4%-139.7%-182.6%-1273%93.6%4.5%93.8%102.2%來源：， 來源：，圖表27：生產(chǎn)商毛利率低基數(shù)下修復、3Q23同比+6.3PCT

圖表28：3Q23青松股份大幅減虧、嘉亨家化歸母凈利率同比-2.8PCT202120221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23202120221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23青松股份-12.7%-7.3%-19.0%-14.7%0.2%4.5%-2.8%6.8%7.6%青松股份-48.3%6.7%-19.6%-21.8%-60.4%89.2%-3.2%10.8%68.2%嘉亨家化-1.5%0.2%-1.0%1.6%-0.8%1.0%0.6%0.7%0.8%嘉亨家化-1.3%-1.7%-1.7%-1.5%-1.4%-2.5%-4.1%-1.1%-2.8%生產(chǎn)商-9.2%-5.3%-14.2%-11.1%-0.1%4.2%-0.2%6.5%6.3%生產(chǎn)商-33.7%3.3%-14.8%-17.4%-43.1%67.5%-2.2%8.6%47.6%來源：， 來源：，/增品牌拓平臺機會受天貓流量趨于飽和、成長紅利減弱，線上流量成本上升、競爭加劇，業(yè)務結構調整，新渠道/新品類貢獻增量有限，21年開始代運營板塊營收與凈利增長承壓。21年/22年/1-3Q23運板營同比-6.5同-1/-92/-16.9。圖表29：代運營商營收增長壓 圖表30：代運營商3Q23歸母凈利多數(shù)承壓2020202120221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q232020202120221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23壹網(wǎng)壹創(chuàng)-10%-13%36%20%39%58%29%5%-10%-26%壹網(wǎng)壹創(chuàng)42%5%-45%-2%-28%-46%-73%-18%-16%-36%麗人麗妝19%-10%-22%-5%-23%-16%-31%-14%-2%-9%麗人麗妝19%21%-134%-71%-104%-180%-167%-291%減虧若羽臣18%13%-6%6%-24%-2%-1%-1%23%-16%若羽臣3%-67%16%-81%-73%19%198%95%181%42%凱淳股份15%-6%-8%-17%-19%8%-4%-2%5%-26%凱淳股份27%-43%-112%-165%-127%-187%50%114%虧損擴大代運營12.3%-6.5%-8.7%-0.8%-14.4%3.3%-14.8%-6.6%0.9%-17.2%代運營25%-1%-92%-55%-83%-100%-114%-55%9%8632%來源：， 來源：，圖表31：代運營商毛利率低基數(shù)下修復、3Q23同比+3.3PCT202120221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23壹網(wǎng)壹創(chuàng)-0.2%-14.0%-4.4%-13.5%-18.4%-16.0%-9.8%-5.4%-2.0%麗人麗妝0.6%-9.4%-7.3%-15.0%-20.5%-3.4%-0.3%3.9%4.8%若羽臣-3.0%2.0%-0.6%-5.0%-6.3%15.3%6.3%12.1%10.5%凱淳股份-0.7%2.4%-1.0%0.1%0.5%7.6%-1.5%-10.8%-2.6%代運營-0.5%-6.3%-4.5%-10.7%-14.2%-0.4%-1.0%2.0%3.3%來源：，

圖表32：代運營商3Q23歸母凈利率同比+0.9PCT20212022202120221Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23壹網(wǎng)壹創(chuàng)4.9%-17.1%-4.4%-13.3%-20.8%-24.0%-4.2%-1.1%-1.6%麗人麗妝2.5%-14.2%-4.1%-15.4%-17.0%-17.8%-5.7%0.8%2.6%若羽臣-5.5%0.5%-5.7%-4.2%0.5%8.5%1.2%2.9%1.9%凱淳股份-3.7%-6.6%-14.6%-12.6%-6.0%1.8%7.4%-2.1%2.8%代運營0.6%-10.0%-5.0%-11.6%-10.8%-11.2%-2.2%0.2%0.9%來源：，Q3據(jù)國家統(tǒng)計局，23年H1/1-3Q+17.5/+12.2，Q37（-108銷反饋良好，情侶和年輕人成為消費主力，國潮類、IP類、古法金等設計感/時尚感強的黃金產(chǎn)品受年輕群體青睞，零售額表現(xiàn)向好（同比+7.2；9紛啟訂會戰(zhàn)Q4季，售延亮表（同+7.7。對比三大可選消費品類，1-9M23化妝品類/金銀珠寶類/服裝鞋帽針紡織品類累計同比+6.8合21年期別增1.9增7.1/增3。圖表33：以絕對值推算、Q3同比持平

圖表34：1-9M23金銀珠寶類社零增速領跑其他可選品類150% 服裝鞋帽針紡織品類100% 化妝品類金銀珠寶類50%限額以上企業(yè)品售額 服裝鞋帽針紡150% 服裝鞋帽針紡織品類100% 化妝品類金銀珠寶類50%2019202020192020202120221-9M2330%25%20%15%10%19-0219-0519-0219-0519-0819-1120-0220-0520-0820-1121-0221-0521-0821-1122-0222-0522-0822-1123-0223-0523-080%-5%-10%來源：國家統(tǒng)計局， 來源：國家統(tǒng)計局，黃金產(chǎn)品價增驅動占主導，量微降。1）量：據(jù)中國黃金協(xié)會，Q3全國黃金消費量280.19噸同比-7，中黃首飾183.78噸比-8.8金和金幣76.06噸同比，我們預計金飾需求同比下降主要系去年同期高基數(shù)+9月底金價大幅波動增強消2）價：Q3（Au9999）19.6。圖表35：Q3黃金首飾/金條和金幣消費量同比-8.8/-

圖表36Q3（Au9999）日收盤均價同比黃金消費量（黃金消費量（黃金消費量（）黃金首飾yoy（右軸）金條及金幣yoy（右軸）4.1+19.6250200%200150%100%15050%1000%50-50%0-100%來源：中國黃金協(xié)會， 來源：上海黃金交易所，/穩(wěn)健我們選擇老鳳祥、豫園股份、中國黃金、周大生、菜百股份、迪阿股份、曼卡龍、潮宏基作為黃金珠寶板塊樣本股。圖表37：黃金珠寶板塊個股樣本3032%42%13%2127%15.514.517.7438384517總體（除豫園、迪阿）3%90%13%10%2125%15.932.922.0564512677板塊總體2354%30%24%6122%1.040.841.24151515潮宏基2361%29%2%323%0.180.240.27453曼卡龍89%-123%-73%--48%38%-42%-0.21-0.481.01557迪阿股份669%1531%25%7846%1.791.782.35403351菜百股份3%27%26%15%6950%3.553.743.65444041周大生1727%19%13%2212%2.042.373.00117134161中國黃金89%-8%341%6%2525%0.1718.823.36121122152豫園股份4915%7610%3%33%6.925.577.16217158246老鳳祥3Q232Q231Q233Q232Q231Q233Q232Q231Q233Q232Q231Q23歸母凈利潤yoy收入yoy歸母凈利潤（億元）收入（億元）公司來源：各公司公告1-3QQ1（1-2、Q2延續(xù)亮眼表現(xiàn)（、Q3圖表38：1-3Q23+18.7，表現(xiàn)好圖表39Q3564+10.2于金銀珠寶類社零12.2的增速 復合21年同期增10.3，表現(xiàn)穩(wěn)健1-3Q23+18.7，12.2Q3564+10.22110.3圖表38：1-3Q23+18.7，表現(xiàn)好圖表39Q3564+10.2于金銀珠寶類社零12.2的增速 復合21年同期增10.3，表現(xiàn)穩(wěn)健黃金珠寶板塊營收（億元）yoy黃金珠寶板塊營收（億元）yoy（右軸）金銀珠寶零售額增速（右軸）0

40%30%20%10%0%-10%

0

22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q3

30%黃金珠寶板塊營收（億元）yoy黃金珠寶板塊營收（億元）yoy（右軸）剔除豫園股份、迪阿股份yoy（右軸）10%0%-10%-20%來源：， 來源：，圖表40Q315.9

圖表41：黃金珠寶板塊1-3Q23業(yè)績增速靚麗+3.5，調整后同比+30.1+3.5，調整后同比+30.1黃金珠寶板塊歸母凈利潤（億元）yoy黃金珠寶板塊歸母凈利潤（億元）yoy（右軸）剔除豫園股份、迪阿股份yoy（右軸）3530252015105022Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q3

100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%

黃金珠寶板塊凈利（百萬元）yoy黃金珠寶板塊凈利（百萬元）yoy（右軸）0

80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%來源：， 來源：，、盈利性：金價上行+產(chǎn)品及渠道結構影響毛利率表現(xiàn)，收入增長攤薄費用、盈利能力同比提升//Q3老鳳祥、中國黃金受益金價上行毛利率同比提升；毛利較低的黃金首飾+加盟代理收入占比提升、潮宏基毛利率同比-2.17PCT；黃金產(chǎn)品占比提升、周大生毛利率同比-13PCT。圖表42：1-3Q23黃金珠寶板毛率同比+1.1PCT 圖表43：1-3Q23黃金珠寶板塊歸凈利率同比+0.5PCT

3.0% 6%黃金珠寶板塊毛利率毛利率變動（右軸）2.0% 5%黃金珠寶板塊毛利率毛利率變動（右軸）1.0% 4%0.0% 3%-1.0% 2%-2.0% 1%-3.0% 0%

1.0%黃金珠寶板塊凈利率凈利率變動（右軸）0.8%黃金珠寶板塊凈利率凈利率變動（右軸）0.6%0.4%0.2%0.0%-0.2%-0.4%-0.6%-0.8%來源：， 來源：，圖表44：3Q23黃金珠寶板塊毛利率同比提振、盈利能力提升0.5%0.5%0.3%0.4%0.9%0.7%0.0%3.5%3.8%3.4%8.7%9.5%8.6%總體（除豫園、迪阿）-0.2%2.4%-0.4%-0.7%-1.0%-1.8%2.8%6.4%3.3%10.3%10.9%10.4%板塊總體0.0%-0.3%0.5%-2.2%-7.2%-3.2%7.0%5.7%8.1%26.5%25.7%28.0%潮宏基0.8%0.9%1.6%-2.0%-4.1%0.9%4.5%5.0%7.7%16.2%14.5%23.2%曼卡龍%.1-16%-32.3%.5-16-2.8%-1.4%-1.3%4.1%-8.9%14.3%68.2%68.5%69.9%迪阿股份1.1%1.7%-0.5%-0.1%1.4%-1.3%4.5%5.4%4.6%10.5%11.6%11.4%菜百股份-1.0%-3.1%-1.7%-0.1%-5.5%-2.3%8.0%9.5%8.9%17.8%19.0%17.9%周大生0.0%0.1%0.1%1.7%-0.2%-0.1%1.7%1.8%1.9%4.2%4.5%4.0%中國黃金-1.2%11.1%-0.5%-3.2%-3.8%-4.4%0.1%15.4%2.2%13.7%12.7%14.0%豫園股份0.8%0.4%0.7%0.8%1.7%0.1%3.2%3.5%2.9%7.5%9.1%8.0%老鳳祥3Q232Q231Q233Q232Q231Q233Q232Q231Q233Q232Q231Q23歸母凈利率變動毛利率變動歸母凈利率毛利率公司來源：各公司公告3Q23黃金珠寶板塊（剔除豫園股份、迪阿股份）毛利率/銷售費用率/管理費用率/歸母凈利率分別為、同+0.87/-0.29/-0.01/+0.47PCT。圖表45：收入增長攤薄費用、3Q23黃金珠寶板塊銷售/管理費用率同比下降公司銷售費用率管理費用率銷售費用率變動管理費用率變動1Q232Q233Q231Q232Q233Q231Q232Q233Q231Q232Q233Q23老鳳祥1.4%1.4%0.9%0.6%0.6%0.5%-0.1%0.3%-0.5%0.0%0.0%-0.1%豫園股份5.3%5.6%6.7%4.6%6.2%5.8%-0.8%-0.6%0.3%-1.6%-0.5%-1.2%中國黃金0.6%0.8%0.9%0.2%0.3%0.4%-0.3%-0.3%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.1%周大生4.5%5.4%5.0%0.5%0.6%0.6%-1.2%-1.5%0.0%-0.3%-0.3%0.0%菜百股份2.8%2.3%2.6%0.7%0.4%0.6%0.0%-1.8%-0.5%-0.2%-0.5%-0.1%迪阿股份48.8%65.2%54.8%6.3%6.0%7.0%21.2%27.0%11.9%3.1%1.8%2.2%曼卡龍8.9%6.1%7.0%4.1%3.3%3.7%0.1%-2.4%-1.5%-0.5%-1.2%-0.8%潮宏基13.6%14.6%12.5%1.3%1.9%2.4%-2.5%-5.4%-3.1%-0.5%-0.5%0.5%來源：各公司公告圖表46：3Q23黃金珠寶板塊銷售用率同比-0.29PCT 圖表47：1-3Q23黃金珠寶板管費用率同比-0.3PCT黃金珠寶板塊銷售費用率銷售費用率變動（右軸）4.5%黃金珠寶板塊銷售費用率銷售費用率變動（右軸）4.0%3.5%3.0%2.5%2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%

0.30%0.20%0.10%0.00%-0.10%-0.20%-0.30%-0.40%-0.50%

2020

2021

2022

2023H12023Q1-3

0.3%黃金珠寶板塊管理費用率管理費用率變動（右軸）0.2%黃金