世界銀行（World Bank）：2023年肯尼亞國家氣候與發(fā)展報(bào)告

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2023

?2023TheWorldBankGroup

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COUNTRYCLIMATEAND

DEVELOPMENTREPORT

Acknowledgments

AbbreviationsandAcronyms

Introduction

1.Developmentandclimatechallengesandopportunities

1.1.Kenya’sgrowthhasbeenstrong,butnotstellar

1.2.AcceleratedandinclusivegrowthisnecessaryifKenyaistobecomeanUMICby20301.2.1.Kenyacouldleverageademographicdividendbyinvestinginitsyouth

1.2.2.TheprivatesectorplaysandwillcontinuetoplayanimportantroleinshapingKenya’sgrowthanddevelopment

1.3.AdaptationandgreaterresiliencetoclimatechangeareparamountforKenya’sfuturedevelopment

1.3.1.Kenya’slargelyrainfedagricultureandpastoralsystemsarehighlyvulnerabletoclimatechange

1.3.2.Kenya’sroadanddigitalinfrastructurenetworksarevulnerabletoclimatechange,leavingsomeregionsandfreightatrisk

1.3.3.Urbanareas,Kenya’scentersofeconomicactivity,areatriskoffloodsandheatevents1.3.4.Climatechangeisexpectedtoimpactlaborproductivityacrossalleconomicsectors

1.3.5.Climatechangeisexpectedtoincreasetheincidenceofcertaindiseases

1.3.6.Households’socioeconomicstatusinfluenceshowtheycopewithclimateshocks

1.4.Kenya’sGHGemissionsarerelativelyminoronaglobalscale,butincreasing

1.4.1RapidandunplannedurbanizationinKenyaisincreasingGHGemissions1.4.2.Kenya’ssupplychainlogisticsdependheavilyonroadsandfossilfuels

1.4.3.Kenya’spredominantlyrenewableenergymixwillneedtomeetgrowingenergydemands

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2.PolicyandinstitutionalStructuresforAddressingClimateChange

2.1.AlignclimatepolicyplanningandimplementationframeworkwithNDCgoals

2.2.Operationalizerobustinstitutionalcoordinationmechanismsforclimateaction

2.3.Strengtheninstitutionalcapacitytoupscalepublicandconcessionalclimatefinance

3.MeasuresforInclusiveGrowththatIncreaseClimateResilienceandMaintainaLow-CarbonPath

3.1.Managewater,land,andforestsforclimate-resilientagricultureandruraleconomies3.1.1.Improvewaterresourcemanagementandexpandirrigation

3.1.2.Restoreandmanageforestassetsforwaterstoragewhilegeneratingothereconomicbenefits

3.1.3.Transformagriculturalproductivity

3.2.Deliverpeople-centeredresiliencewithclimate-informedbasicservicesandurbanization3.2.1.Ensureclimate-proofuniversalaccesstobasicservices

3.2.2.Implementadaptivesocialprotectionandactivelabormarketprogramstoachievesocioeconomicmobilityandresiliencetoclimatechange

3.2.3.Transformurbanareasintoclimate-resilienthubsthatfostereconomicgrowth

3.3.Strengthenproductivityandcompetitivenessininternationalmarketsthroughshiftsinenergy,transport,anddigitalsystems

3.3.1.Agreenenergymatrix

3.3.2.Greenerfreighttransport,transporttechnologies,andresilientinfrastructure3.3.3.Resilientdigitalinfrastructureforefficient,low-carbongrowth

4.ClimateChangeImpactsonGrowth

4.1.Kenya’seconomycouldfacesetbackswithoutclimateaction

4.1.1.ClimateimpactchannelsonKenya’seconomy

4.2.Modelingadaptationtoclimatechange:selectedinterventions

4.3.Povertyimpactsofclimatechangeshocks

4.4.Integratingclimatefinanceintomacrofiscalpolicies,subsidies,anddecentralizationinitiatives

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5.1.Rankingclimate-positiveactions

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5.2.Policymeasuresformobilizingclimatefinancingfrompublicandprivatesector60

5.2.1.Leveragingprivatesectorfunding

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5.2.2.Carbonmarkets

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5.2.3.Risktransferinstruments

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5.3.Scalingupclimateandnaturefinance

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6.ConclusionandLookingAhead

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References

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iv|CountryClimateandDevelopmentReport:Kenya

ListofTables

Table1.1:Modalshareofdifferentformsoftransportinurbanareas

Table3.1:Emissionsandemissionssavingspermillionfreighttonne(2021)

Table5.1:Expertrankingofthethreemultisectoralactionareas

Table5.2:Estimatedcosts,benefits,andinvestmentneedsforafewkeyactions($,millions)

ListofFigures

FigureI.1:Aclimate-resilient,inclusive,andqualitygrowthpathforanUMICKenyaFigure1.1:Kenya’sexports(2020)aredominatedbyagricultureandservices

Figure1.2:Kenya’sexport-to-GDPratio

Figure1.3:Employmentbysectoratcountylevel,2019

Figure1.4:Projectedchangesinmeantemperatureandprecipitation(resultsfromfourmodels)Figure1.5:Impactofdifferentclimatemodelsonrainfedcrops

Figure1.6:Additionalannualdamageperkilometer,byclimateevent(baselineto2031–50)

Figure1.7:Sectorsmostaffectedbyclimatechange

Figure1.8:TotalGHGemissions(1995–2020)

Figure1.9:MileageandCO2emissionsfromroadtransportinKenya

Figure3.1:Impactofclimatescenariosonrainfedagricultureandlivestock,bycounty(2041–50)

Figure3.2:Kenya’sCO2emissions,comparedtoothercountriesintheregionFigure3.3:Valueaddedperworker,bysectorandyear

Figure3.4:Cumulativeupfrontinvestmentandfuelcosts(discounted)2022–50

Figure3.5:CO2emissionssavedfromshiftingfreighttorail,permillionfreighttonne(2021)

Figure4.1:DeviationinrealGDPfrombaselineduetoclimatechangeimpactsbydamagechannel,2050

Figure4.2:Inequalityincreasefromno-climate-changescenario

Figure4.3:Countypovertyimpactfrombaselinescenario,2050

Figure5.1:Expertscoringofactionareasonadevelopment/climateandfeasibilityscale

ListofBoxes

Box3.1:Adoptingimprovedanimalfeedandbreedscouldmeetconsumptionneedswhilereducingheadsofcattle—andmethaneemissions—by2050

Box3.2:Enablingpartnershipsbetweenfarmersandaggregatorstoenhanceclimateresilience

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Acknowledgments

TheKenyaCountryClimateandDevelopmentReport(CCDR)waspreparedbyamultisectoralWorldBankGroupteamledbyDijiChandrasekharanBehr,DominickRevelldeWaal,andNaomiMuthoniMathenge,underthesupervisionofIainShukerandAbhaPrasad,andthedirectionofAyatSoliman,HolgerKray,andAsadAlam.

CCDRWorldBankGroupteammembersincluded:

?Onagriculture:VinayKumarVutukuru,JoelKhobondo,MichaelNjuguna

?Oncleancooking:AlishaNoellaPinto,JingyiWu,YabeiZhang

?Onclimatechange(greenhousegasemissionsandcarbonmarkets):DavidGroves,JichongWu,SandhyaSrinivasan

?Ondigital:SaraBallan,ThomasLadegaardKuemmelBirk

?Oneducation:PedroCerdan-Infantes,EliotFarondeGoer

?Onenergy:AishaAbdulaziz,GraceNjeru,LaurenciaNjagi,RaimundAlexanderViktorMalischek,TomRemy,ZubairKMSadeque,ZukhrufAmjad

?Onenvironment,ForestandClimateFinance:YuraniAriasGranada,ElissonWright,HishamOsman,TuukkaCastren

?Ongovernanceinputs:OnurErdem,MaudAliceMarieMelanieFrangi

?Ongreen,resilient,andinclusivedevelopment(GRID):JasonDanielRuss,ShenghuiFeng

?Onhealth:JaneChuma,JosineUmutoniKarangwa,JessicaLeeteWernerFlannery,JudithNamanya

?Onprivatesector(IFC):UgoAmoretti,DeoOnyango,AlexanderLarinov,LeiZhang,RichardMwangiWarugongo’MemoryMachingambi

?Onprivatesectorandclimatefinance:IsfandyarZamanKhan,RachelChiKiuMok,BarryPatrickMaher,FionaStewart,JamesSeward,SandhyaSrinivasan,JeannieCrist,FarahImranaHussain,AnupurbaRoy,SweeEeAng,NepomukDunz,EtienneEspagne

?Onprivate-publicpartnerships:AijazAhmad,NathanRonoTuimising,SamuelBaiya

?Onmacroeconomicsandmacromodeling:AghassiMkrtchyan,FrancisDennig,AngeliqueUmutesi,StanleyMutinda

?OnMIGA:JessicaCharlesWade,NkemjikaI.Onwuamaegbu

?Onpoverty:PreciousZikhali,AlastairPeterFrancisHaynes,GabrielaInchauste,MayaScottGoldman

?Onsocialinclusion:NicholasMeitiakiSoikan,MurathaKinuthia

?Onsocialprotectionandjobs:ThomasVaughanBowen,FedericaRicaldi,IftikharMalik,NaseerUddinKhan

?Ontransport:AkikoKishiue,CordulaRastogi,CeciliaM.Briceno-GarmendiaJosphatO.Sasia,YoominLee,SamuelBlackwellHeroy,WenxinQiao,CeciliaFabianKadeha,SusanApudoOwuor,NatsumiTaniyama,EllyMaxOtienoAkello,FofanaNouraImaneZeinabKaramoko,FranckKennethTiotsop

?Onclimatefinance(Treasury):JamesSeward,HelenaCristinaDill,AnupurbaRoy

?Ontradeinputs:CordulaRastogi,GuillermoCarlosArenas,AlejandroEspinosa-Wang

?Onurban,landanddisasterriskmanagement:BeatrizErasoPuig,SheilaW.Kamunyori,DavisonMuchadenyika,JudyMaureenWaturi,OluwaseunAyodeleOlowoporoku,RossMarcEisenberg,RuiSu

?Onwater:FanZhang,JamesOringa,LewnidaSara,PascalineNdungu,PeiterWaalewijn,PhyllisWambuiWachira,PooladKarim,VeraKehayova,VictorVasquez.

vi|CountryClimateandDevelopmentReport:Kenya

Thefollowingconsultantsandteamsofexternalexpertscontributedtothebackgroundpapersfor,andprovidedinputsto,theCCDR:BrentBoehlert,KenStrzepek,andDiegoCastillo(IndustrialEconomics,Inc);JoedeSwardt;CadastaFoundation;AnchorEnvironmental;Dalberg–Kenya;Jacob’sLadder;IrvingMcLiberty;andJamesMwangiKinyanjui.ChandrahasChoudharyandLucySouthwoodeditedthereport.

CamilleLampartNuamah,AmenaArif,AlmudWeitz,ErikFernstrom,AndrewBurns,RaginiDalal,AllenDennis,MarekHanusch,AnneMargrethBakilana,andPeterNgwaTaniformprovidedtechnicalguidance.

TheteamthanksAlySanoh,AijazAhmad,UrvashiNarain,ElizabethNinan,ShyamalaShukla,AlexanderLarionov,andRichardMwangiWarugongowhoservedaspeerreviewers,andallthecorporatereviewerswhocommentedontheconcept,qualityenhancement,anddecisionreviewstages.

WearealsogratefultothedifferentGovernmentofKenyainstitutions,andrepresentativesfromacademia,civilsociety,theprivatesector,anddevelopmentpartnersfortheirfeedbackandinputs.TheKenyaCCDRwaspreparedundertheguidanceandleadershipofKeithHansen,JumokeJagun-Dokunmu,andMerliMargaretBaroudi.

AdditionalfundingfortheanalyticalworkthatunderpinstheCCDRwasprovidedbythefollowingprogramsadministeredbytheWorldBank:ClimateSupportFacility–WholeofEconomyProgram(CSF-WOE),GlobalProgramonSustainability(GPS),EnergySectorManagementAssistanceProgram(ESMAP),GlobalWaterSecurity&SanitationPartnership(GWSP),Japan-WorldBankProgramforMainstreamingDisasterRiskManagementinDevelopingCountries(GFDRR),andPROBLUE.

CountryClimateandDevelopmentReport:Kenya|vii

AbbreviationsandAcronyms

ASAL

aridandsemi-aridlands

ASP

aspirational(economicscenario)

ASTGS

AgriculturalSectorTransformationandGrowthStrategy

BAU

business-as-usual(economicscenario)

BETA

Bottom-upEconomicTransformationAgenda2022–27

BPS

BudgetPolicyStatement

CAPEX

capitalexpenditure

catbonds

catastrophebonds

CCA

ClimateChangeAct

CCCF

CountyClimateChangeFund

CO

2

carbondioxide

CSA

climate-smartagriculture

ESR

enhancedsingleregistry

EU

EuropeanUnion

EV

electricvehicle

FLLoCA

FinancingLocallyLedClimateAction

GCM

generalcirculationmodel

GDP

grossdomesticproduct

GHG

greenhousegas

HCI

HumanCapitalIndex

ICT

informationandcommunicationtechnology

IFC

InternationalFinanceCorporation

KenGen

KenyaElectricityGeneratingCompanyPLC

KNBS

KenyaNationalBureauofStatistics

KPLC

KenyaPowerandLightingCompany

LCPDP

LeastCostPowerDevelopmentPlan

LMIC

lower-middle-incomecountry

LPG

liquefiedpetroleumgas

MCDAs

ministries,counties,departments,andagencies

MSME

micro,small,andmediumscaleenterprises

MRV

monitoring,reporting,andverification

MtCO2e

milliontonnes(metrictons)ofcarbondioxideequivalent

MTP

medium-termplans

viii|CountryClimateandDevelopmentReport:Kenya

NCCAP

NationalClimateChangeActionPlan

NCCC

NationalClimateChangeCouncil

NCCF

NationalClimateChangeFund

NDC

NationallyDeterminedContribution

ND-GAIN

NotreDameGlobalAdaptationInitiative

NDMA

NationalDroughtManagementAuthority

OPEX

operationalexpenditure

PIM

publicinvestmentmanagement

PPP

public-privatepartnership

RCP

RepresentativeConcentrationPathway

SGR

standardgaugerailway

SOE

state-ownedenterprise

SSP

SharedSocioeconomicPathway

tCO2e

tonnes(metrictons)ofcarbondioxideequivalent

UMIC

upper-middle-incomecountry

WASH

water,sanitation,andhygiene

Alldollaramounts($)areUSdollars

CountryClimateandDevelopmentReport:Kenya|ix

?PieterWaalewijn

Introduction

Introduction

Kenyaisthefourth-largesteconomyinSub-SaharanAfricaandaspirestobeanupper-middle-incomecountry(UMIC)by2030.Itrecentlyachievedlower-middle-incomecountry(LMIC)statusandalthoughpovertywastrendingdownwardpre-COVID,36.1percentofitspopulationstilllivedundertheinternationalpovertylinein2021.1Kenya’srealgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)grewatanaverageannualrateof4.8percentfrom2015–19,duetorobustgrowthofprivateconsumptionatanannualaveragerateof5percentcomplementedbyambitiouspublicinvestmentfocusedonclosingthelargeinfrastructuregapandimplementingthedevolutionmandateunderthe2010constitution.Theagriculture,industry,andservicessectorscontributed21.2percent,25.4percent,and45.4percent,respectively,in2022(KenyaNationalBureauofStatistics2022).IntermsofregionalcontributiontonationalGDP,asof2020,2majorurbanagglomerations—includingincludeNairobi,Kisumu,Mombasa,Kiambu,Machakos,andNakuru—accountedfornearly48percentofKenya’sGDP(KenyaNationalBureauofStatistics2021).Butonly28.5percentofthepopulationlivedinurbancentersin2021.

Kenyaishighlyexposedtoclimatechange,ranking41stintheworld’smostvulnerablecountries,accordingtotheNotreDameGlobalAdaptationInitiative(ND-GAIN)(2021).Withitsprimarilyrainfedagriculturesector,levelsofinformalityintheeconomy,andslowdowninthestructuraltransformationoftheeconomy,Kenyaisexposedtoexogenousclimaterisks.ToachieveandsustainUMICstatus,itwillneedtoacceleratetheuseofpublicpolicies,publicinvestments,andprivatesectorfinancingtoincreaseproductivity,reduceregionalinequities,andaligneffortstoboostgrowthwithitscommitmentstoclimateaction,asreflectedinitsClimateChangeAct(CCA),NationallyDeterminedContribution(NDC)—whichcommitsthecountrytoreduceemissionsby32percentoftheexpected143millionmetrictonsofcarbondioxideequivalent(MtCO2e)by2030,andestablishingaclimate-resilientsociety—andNationalClimateChangeActionPlans(NCCAPs).

TheKenyaClimateChangeandDevelopmentReport(CCDR)presentsasetofpriorityactionareasforthegovernmenttoachieveitsdevelopmentandgrowthobjectivesinaclimate-informedmanner.TheactionareasarealignedwithKenya’sNDCandplacethecountryonapathtowardnetzeroby2050.Topresentthebroadestrangeofclimateeffects,thisCCDRexplorestheimpactofclimateshocksacrossthefollowing:

?Anoptimisticclimatefuturescenario,wheregreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsareinlinewitha1.5°Cby2100(workingwiththeSharedSocioeconomicPathways(SSPs)3associatedwiththemeansofSSP1–1.9)

?Apessimisticclimatefuturescenario,wherewarmingreaches4°Cby2100(workingwiththemeansassociatedwithSSP3–7.0)

?Themeanofthreegeneralcirculationmodels(GCMs)thatpresentsthe10thpercentileofmeanprecipitationchangesand90thpercentileofmeantemperaturechanges(referredtoasdry/hot)

?ThemeanofthreeGCMsthatpresentsthe90thpercentileofmeanprecipitationchangesandthe10thpercentileofmeantemperaturechanges(referredtoaswet/warm).

TheCCDRmodelingimposestheseshocksontwomacroeconomyandadaptationpolicyscenarios,viaasetofimpactchannels.Themacroeconomyscenariosarebusiness-as-usual(BAU),whichassumes

1PovertyimpactsbackgroundnotepreparedfortheKenyaCCDR.

2Thelatestavailabledataongrosscountyproduct.

3SSPsaredifferentpossibleevolutionsoftheworldintermsofdemography,technology,economy,andsoon.Inturn,thesesocioeconomic

conditionsachievecertainRepresentativeConcentrationPathways(RCPs),whicharescenariosofemissionsandconcentrationsofGHGs,aerosols,andlanduse/landcoverthatrepresentdifferentintensitiesintheadditionalradiativeforcingcausedbyhumanactivities.

CountryClimateandDevelopmentReport:Kenya|1

KenyaremainsasanLMIC,maintainsitscurrentaverageannualGDPgrowthof5percentupto2050,andmaintainstheaveragehistoricalratesofchangeofallmacroindicators—thatis,sectorsharesintheeconomy,productivity,urbanandruralpopulation—upto2050;andaspirational(ASP),whichassumesthatKenyaisanewlyindustrializing,middle-incomecountryprovidingahighqualityoflifetoallitscitizensby2030inacleanandsecureenvironment,GDPgrowsatanaverageof7.5percentperannum,industryandservicesconstituteabiggershareoftheeconomy,andKenyaismoreurbanized.TheASPgrowthratecompareswiththegrowthrateneededtoachievetheKenyaKwanzaPlan:Bottom-UpEconomicTransformationAgenda(BETA)2022–274planof7.2percent(Breisingeretal.2022).Weconsidermeasuressuchasexpandedirrigation,andimprovedaccesstowatersupply,sanitation,andhygiene(WASH)facilities,education,cleancookingtechnology,whichofferslaborsavings,andsoontobedevelopmentactionsthatarepartoftheASPscenario.Theeconomyisimpactedthroughclimateshocksto:

?Humancapital,includingfromheatstressonlabor,impactstohumanhealth,andimpactstocleancooking

?Agricultureandnaturalresources,includingfromchangesinwatersupply,cropproduction,erosion,carbonstorageinforestsandsoil,livestockproductionandhydropowergeneration,and

?Infrastructureandservices,includingfrominlandflooding,andimpactstoroadsandbridges.

Basedonawhole-of-economyframing,thisCCDRidentifiesfiveinterconnectedactionareasthatcouldhelpKenyaachieveinclusiveandclimate-resilientgrowth(figureI.1),andUMICstatusby2050.Thefiveactionareasincludethreemultisectoralareasfocusedon:managingwater,landandforestsforclimateresilientagricultureandruraleconomies;deliveringpeople-centeredresiliencewithclimate-informedbasicservicesandurbanization;andstrengtheningKenya’scompetitivenessininternationalmarketsthroughshiftsinenergy,transport,anddigitalsystemsandtwocrosscuttingareas:improvingintegrationandcoordinationofclimateactioninpolicy,planning,andinvestmentdecisionsacrosstheeconomy;andpolicymeasuresformobilizingclimatefinancefromprivateandpublicsector.

FigureI.1:Aclimate-resilient,inclusive,andqualitygrowthpathforanUMICKenya

Improveintegrationandcoordinationofclimateactioninpolicy,planning,andinvestmentdecision-makingacrosstheeconomy

Managewater,land,andforestsfor

climate-resilientagricultureandruraleconomies

StrengthenKenya’scompetitivenessin

internationalmarketsthroughshiftsinenergy,

transport,anddigitalsystems

Implementpolicymeasuresformobilizingclimatefinancingfromprivateandpublicsector

Deliverpeople-centeredresiliencewith

climate-informedbasicservicesandurbanization

ThisCCDRisdividedintofivechapters:

.Chapter1focusesonKenya’sdevelopmentcontextandtherisksandopportunitiespresentedbyclimatechange,analyzingthecharacteristicsofkeysectorsofthecountry’seconomythatcouldallowittoachievegreen,inclusivegrowththatisalsoresilienttoclimatechange.

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.Chapter2offersananalysisofKenya’scurrentpolicyandinstitutionalstructuresforaddressingclimatechange,suggestingwaysofharmonizingpolicyandactionacrossgovernmentlevelsforanintegratedefforttoaddressclimatechangeandmobilizefinance.

.Chapter3presentsthedetailedanalysesunderpinningthemultisectoralactionareasandtheircontributiontoinclusivegrowth,climateresilience,andmaintainingalow-carbongrowthpathinthefaceofchangingclimateanddomesticandinternationalcontexts.

.Chapter4laysoutthemacrostructuralmodelingresultsofclimatechangeimpactsonKenya’seconomyintheshorttermthroughto2050.Itpresentsresultsforvariousdamagechannels,anddifferentclimatescenariosandillustrateswaysinwhichthecountrycansustaingrowthandmitigatedamagefromclimatechangeunderthedifferentscenarios.

.Chapter5identifieskeypriorityareasandcostestimatesforselectinvestmentsthatcouldcontributetothegrowthofKenya’seconomywhileboostingitsresiliencetoclimatechangeandremainingonlow-carbonpathway.Italsopresentsoptionsforscalingupclimatefinance,especiallyfromtheprivatesector,throughdiverserangeofinnovativeinstruments.

CountryClimateandDevelopmentReport:Kenya|3

?PieterWaalewijn

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DevelopmentandClimateChallengesandOpportunities

1.DevelopmentandClimateChallengesandOpportunities

1.1.Kenya’sgrowthhasbeenstrong,butnotstellar

Withrobusteconomicgrowthoverthepastdecade,KenyahasoutperformeditspeersinSub-SaharanAfrica.AnnualGDPgrowthaveraged5percentfrom2010to2019andisprojectedtoremainabove5percentinthemediumterm.Theeconomyhasshownconsiderableresiliencetorecentshocks.AlthoughtheCOVID-19pandemiccausedrealGDPtocontractby0.3percentin2020,itsubsequentlyreboundedby7.5percentin2021andanestimated5.2percentin2022.Thiswasdrivenbybroad-basedexpansionofservices,ledbytherecoveryoftourismandindustry.Ontheexpenditureside,growthhasbeendrivenmainlybyprivateconsumptionandpublicspending,includingonlargeinfrastructureprojects.TherevivedbusinessconfidencefollowingthesmoothtransitionofpoweraftertheAugust2022electionsisexpectedtocontributetogreaterprivatesectorparticipation.Butpressingfiscalchallengesthreatentounderminethesegrowthprospects,withpublicdebtestimatedtoreach64.8percentofGDPinJune2023(WorldBank2023a),anddebtrepaymentsconsumingasubstantialshareoftotalrevenues.

Tradeandindustriesbasedonnaturalresources(agriculture,livestock,tourism)formasignificantpartofKenya’seconomy.Theagriculturalsector,althoughvolatile,has