亞開(kāi)行-氣候適應(yīng)性財(cái)政規(guī)劃：全球良好實(shí)踐綜述（英）

CLIMATERESILIENTFISCALPLANNING

AREVIEWOFGLOBALGOODPRACTICES

NOVEMBER2023

ASIANDEVELOPMENTBANK

CLIMATERESILIENT

FISCALPLANNING

AREVIEWOFGLOBALGOODPRACTICES

NOVEMBER2023

ASIANDEVELOPMENTBANK

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Notes:

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CoverdesignbyRossLocsinLaccay

Contents

Table,Figures,andBoxesiv

Forewordv

Acknowledgmentsvi

Abbreviationsvii

ExecutiveSummaryviii

1ContextofFiscalPlanningforClimateRisks1

ReportStructureandObjectives4

2

Climate-RelatedFiscalSustainabilityAssessments5

ApproachestoClimateImpactAssessment6

ApproachesforEmbeddingClimate-RelatedImpactAssessments13

3

FiscalRiskManagementandStrategies17

ApproachestoRiskAssignment17

ApproachestoManagingFiscalRiskExposure21

ApproachestoInstrumentSelection23

4

Evidence-InformedAdaptationFinancingandInvestment27

ApproachestoMobilizingEfficientPublicAdaptationInvestmentFundFinancing28

ApproachestoMobilizingPrivateandInternationalAdaptationFinance36

GlossaryofTerms41

References42

Table,Figures,andBoxes

Table

2.1StagesofClimateImpactAssessment6

Figures

1.1FiveCloselyRelatedCoreCentralFinanceAgencyFunctions1

1.2TheImpactsofClimateRisksonFiscalSustainability3

3.1DisasterRiskFinancingTaxonomy25

4.1Risk-InformedAssessmentofVulnerabilityandAdaptationOptions31

Boxes

2.1UsingHistoricalAnalysis:LessonsfromtheLaoPDR7

2.2UsingFiscalHealthIndicators:LessonsfromPakistan9

2.3TakingaForward-LookingView:LessonsfromtheUnitedStates11

2.4UsingClimateScenarios:LessonsfromArmenia12

2.5DevelopingandDisseminatingRiskInformation:LessonsfromMexico14

3.1AllocatingRisk:LessonsfromSouthAfrica18

3.2LayeringRisk:LessonsfromthePhilippines22

4.1DomesticClimateFunds:LessonsfromthePhilippines28

4.2InnovativeClimateFinance:LessonsfromIndonesia29

4.3Climate-SmartPublicInvestmentManagement:LessonsfromArmenia32

4.4Cost–BenefitAnalysistoIdentifyPriorityAdaptationInvestments:LessonsfromtheUK34

4.5ClimateRiskAnalysisforNationalAdaptationPlans:LessonsfromThailand37

4.6MobilizingthePrivateSector:LessonsfromChile38

Foreword

Centralfinanceandplanningagenciessuchasministriesoffinanceandplanningandindependentcentralbankscancatalyzethescalingupoffundingtotackletheeffectsofclimatechangeandalignspendingwithinvestmentsforadaptationandmitigation.

ObservedandprojectedscenariosforglobalwarmingindicatethattheadverseimpactsofclimatechangeonhumanandnaturalsystemswillcontinuetointensifyacrossAsiaandthePacific.TheWorldMetrologicalOrganizationsuggeststhatglobalnear-surfacetemperatureswillexceedthethresholdfortemperaturerisesof1.5°Cabovethepreindustrialglobalaverageinatleast1yearbetween2023and2027.TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangehighlightsthattheimpactsofclimatechangeareputtingecosystems,thecryosphere,humansettlements,health,food,water,andenergysystemsacrosstheregionatriskofbreakingdown.

Gapsinadaptationplanningexistevenasprogresshasbeenmade.Andatcurrentratesofimplementation,thegapbetweenwhatisneededandisprovidedwillcontinuetogrow.Investmentinadaptationwillcostanestimated$215billion-$387billionperyearfordevelopingcountriesthisdecadeaccordingtotheUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme,whichpredictsthatfundingneedwillrisesignificantlyoverfuturedecadestoward2050.Thisisinstarkcontrasttothe$63billionayearcurrentlyinvestedinadaptationglobally.

Giventheclearandpresentneedtoscaleupspending,thisreportfocusesonhowclimateresilientfiscalplanningcanhelpmobilizeandallocatepublicandprivatefinanceforinvestmentadaptationandresilience.

AreportbytheCoalitionofFinanceMinistersforClimateActionin2023outlinesthatfinanceministriescollectivelycontrolmorethan$30trillioningovernmentexpenditure—whichamountstoapproximatelyone-thirdofglobalgrossdomesticproduct.Theseministriescoordinateeconomicstrategyandfiscalpolicyandregulatethefinancialsystem.Byintegratingclimateactionintoeconomicinvestments,fiscalpolicies,andbudgetmanagement,financeministriescanhelpensureeconomy-wideinvestmentinadaptation.Theycanalsodeploypolicyandregulationtoleverageprivateinvestmentinadaptation.

Thisreportoutlinesevolvingglobalgoodpracticesonclimateresilientfiscalplanningandidentifiesathree-stepframeworktohelpdecision-makersscaleupandalignfiscalflowswithinvestmentinadaptationandresilience.

Thefirststepistoassessclimate-relatedfiscalriskstoidentify,model,anddisclosetheimpactofclimate-inducedphysicalrisksonfiscalsustainability.Thesecondisinmanagingclimate-relatedfiscalriskstoguideriskassignmentandriskreduction,transfer,andretentionstrategies.Andthethirdstepistooptimizeresourcestomobilizeandmanagepublicandprivatesourcesoffinanceforinvestmentinadaptation.

Withafocusonadaptation,thisreportcomplementstheworkoftheCoalitionofFinanceMinistersforClimateAction.Asanevidence-basedproduct,itsupportstheParisAgreementgoalonfinanceandtheneedtoscaleupandalignfinancialflowswithclimateadaptation.

ToruKubo

SeniorDirector,ClimateChange,Resilience,

andEnvironment

ClimateChangeandSustainableDevelopmentDepartment

TariqH.Niazi

SeniorDirector,PublicSectorManagement

andGovernanceSectorOffice

SectorsGroup

Acknowledgments

ThisreportisaknowledgeproductoftheAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)withfundingsupportfromtheClimateInvestmentFundsPilotProgramonClimateResilienceunderRegionalTechnicalAssistance6629:ImprovedDecision-MakingforClimateResilientDevelopmentinAsiaandthePacific.

ThereportisaresultoftheteameffortledbyNankiKaur,SeniorClimateChangeSpecialist(ClimateChangeAdaptation),ClimateChangeandSustainableDevelopmentDepartment(CCSD),withsupportfromArghyaSinhaRoy,PrincipalClimateChangeSpecialist(ClimateChangeAdaptation),CCSD;SugarGonzales,ClimateChangeOfficer(ClimateChangeAdaptation),CCSD;VardanKarapetyan,SeniorProjectOfficer,ArmeniaResidentMission(ARRM),CentralandWestAsiaDepartment(CWRD);ShannonCowlin,CountryDirector,MongoliaResidentMission,EastAsiaDepartment;MohdSaniMohdIsmail,Director,FinanceSectorOffice,SectorsGroup(SG);AnnaFink,SeniorCountryEconomist,IndonesiaResidentMission(IRM),SoutheastAsiaDepartment(SERD);JoaoPedroFarinha,PrincipalFinancialSectorEconomist,SG;LaisiasaTora,SeniorPublicManagementSpecialist,SG;GhiaRabanal,AssociateClimateChangeOfficer,CCSD;andAnandBabuPrakasam,ProjectCoordinator.ThereportbenefitedfromthereviewandfeedbackfromAnjumIsrar,SeniorPublicManagementSpecialist(DomesticResourceMobilization),SG.GuidancewasalsoreceivedfromBrunoCarrasco,DirectorGeneral,CCSD;ToruKubo,SeniorDirector,ClimateChange,Resilience,andEnvironment,CCSD;TariqNiazi,SeniorDirector,PublicSectorManagementandGovernanceSectorOffice,SG;NoelleO’Brien,Director,ClimateChange,CCSD;JiroTominaga,CountryDirector,IRM,SERD;DonLambert,CountryDirector,ARRM,CWRD;andEmilianoBolongaita,PrincipalKnowledgeSpecialist(Innovation),CCSD.

Thereportdrawsonmultiplesources,includingresearchandanalysisfromVividEconomics,ledbyOliverWalkerandElsaKyander,withCarolineVexler,NeilFrank,andSarahLewis.Itbenefitedsignificantlyfrominputsbytechnicalexperts,includingMichaelAlanSchur,DavidCorderi-Novoa,andStuartAnthonyKiem.TheADBteamisgratefulforthecontributionsofnationalconsultantsDavitManukyanandVardanMelikyaninArmenia;PutraDwitamaandRahmadTantawiinIndonesia;andChoikhandJanchivlamdan,MunkhzulChimid-Ochir,andBatkhuyagChoijiljavinMongolia.Theconclusionsandrecommendationsinthisreportdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofanycontributors.

ADBextendsthankstonationalgovernmentministries:MinistryofFinanceandMinistryofEconomyoftheGovernmentofArmenia;CentreforClimateFinanceandMultilateralPolicy,theFiscalPolicyAgency,MinistryofFinance,MinistryofAgriculture,andPlanningBureauoftheGovernmentofIndonesia;andtheMinistryofEnvironmentandTourism,MinistryofEconomyandDevelopment,MinistryofFinance,andWaterAuthorityoftheGovernmentofMongolia.

Specialthanksgotonationalgovernmentfocalpointsforgivingtheirvaluabletimeandinsights:AvagAvanesyan,DeputyMinisterofFinance,GovernmentofArmenia;ZenithaAstraParamitha,FiscalPolicyAnalystattheCentreforClimateFinanceandMultilateralPolicy,FiscalPolicyAgency,MinistryofFinance,GovernmentofIndonesia;TserendulamShagdarsuren,DirectorGeneraloftheClimateChangeandPolicyPlanningDepartment,MinistryofEnvironmentandTourism,GovernmentofMongolia;andEnkhmunkhOtgontogtokh,SeniorSpecialist(IntegratedSectoralPolicyDivision)intheIntegratedPolicyandPlanningDepartment,MinistryofEconomyandDevelopment,GovernmentofMongolia.

ADBwouldalsoliketoexpressgratitudetoLorieRufo,formerPPCRCoordinatorforClimateInvestmentFunds.LucyMichaelaSouthwoodandJamesUnwineditedthereport,whileAnnaLizaCinco,SeniorOperationsAssistant,CCSD,providedadministrativesupport.AilenMarylouBigaycoordinatedpublication,RocilynLocsinLaccaydesignedthecoverandinfographics,andEdithCreusfinalizedthelayoutandcomposition.

Abbreviations

ADB

–

AsianDevelopmentBank

CBA

–

cost–benefitanalysis

CFA

–

centralfinanceagencies

DGR

–

RiskManagementDivision(Peru)

FSM

–

FederatedStatesofMicronesia

GDP

–

grossdomesticproduct

IAM

–

integratedassessmentmodel

IMF

–

InternationalMonetaryFund

LaoPDR

–

LaoPeople’sDemocraticRepublic

MCA

–

multicriteriaassessment

NAP

–

nationaladaptationplan

PDNA

–

post-disasterneedsassessment

PFM

–

publicfinancialmanagement

PIM

–

publicinvestmentmanagement

PPP

–

public–privatepartnership

RCP

–

RepresentativeConcentrationPathway

SDG

–

SustainableDevelopmentGoal

SOE

–

state-ownedenterprise

UK

–

UnitedKingdom

US

–

UnitedStates

ExecutiveSummary

Climate-relatedphysicalrisksareasignificantandgrowingthreattofiscalsustainability.Acuteandchronicphysicalclimate-relatedrisks—suchaschangingprecipitationpatterns,risingtemperatures,andfloods—areincreasinginseverityandfrequency.Thesecandamageinfrastructure,displacevulnerablepopulations,disrupteconomies,andrequiresignificantinvestmentstobuildresilience.Asaresult,climate-relatedriskscanmakeitverydifficultforcentralfinanceagencies(CFAs)tocarryoutplannedexpendituresandmeetdevelopmentpriorities.

CFAsurgentlyneedtosystematicallyincorporateclimateconsiderationsinallfiscaldecision-making.CFAscantaketheleadinbuildingfiscalandeconomicresiliencetoclimatechange.Effectiveactionispredicatedondeepunderstandingofhowclimate-relatedrisksaffecttheeconomy,vulnerablegroups,infrastructure,andfiscaloutcomes.Usingthisinformation,CFAscanbuildfiscalresiliencetoclimate-relatedrisksbydevelopingastrategyformanagingfiscalexposureandmobilizingenoughresourcesforadaptationneeds.

ManyCFAsarebuildingincreasinglycomprehensiveapproachestodealwithclimate-relatedrisksintheshortandlongterms.1Theyuseavarietyofapproaches,models,andpolicyactionstomanageandadapttocurrentandfutureclimaterisks.Whiledeployingtheseinvariousways,dependingonneedsandcapacities,goodpracticeapproachestendtobe:

?Evidence-driven:Strategies,policies,andprioritiesareunderpinnedbyarobustandclearunderstandingofhowclimate-relatedrisksaffecttheeconomyandfiscalhealth.

?Cost-effective:Sincepublicresourcesareincreasinglylimited,itisimportanttofindcost-effectiveandhighimpactapproachestomanagingandadaptingtoclimate-relatedrisks.

?Forward-lookinganddynamic:Climaterisksrequireplanningforuncertaintyusingflexibleapproachesthatcanaccountformultiplescenariosandadapttonewinformation.

?Coordinatedandcollaborative:Leveragingtheknowledgeofministries,nongovernmentalorganizations,andtheprivatesectorcanhelpensureconsistencyinprioritiesandapproachestoheadoffclimate-relatedrisks.

?Addressingbarriers:Usinginnovativeinstrumentsandpolicyincentivescanencourageinvestmentinriskmanagementintheshortandlongterms,de-riskprivatesectorfinancing,andaddressbarrierstomobilizingresourcesatscale.

CFAsmayfacechallengesinintegratingclimate-relatedriskinformationintodecision-makingandinmobilizingresourcesforadaptationinasystematicandefficientmanner.Assessingclimaterisksofteninvolveshighlytechnicalmodeling.Inmanycountries,CFAsarealreadyresource-constrainedandlackcapacitytoundertakeassessments.Withmanygovernmentagenciesinvolvedindesigningandimplementingclimate-relatedpolicies,collaborationisvitaltoensurecoherencebetweenprioritiesandtomobilizesufficientpublicandprivateresources.

ThisreportdetailsthesegoodpracticeapproachesandprovidesactionableinsightsforCFAsaroundtheworldtouseclimate-relatedriskinformationinmakingdecisions.

1ExamplesincludeArmenia,Indonesia,thePhilippines,andtheUnitedStates.Casestudiesontheseandothercountriesareincludedinthisreport.

1

ContextofFiscalPlanningforClimateRisks

Climate-relatedrisksposeafrequent,sizeable,andincreasingrisktofiscalsustainability.Between1950and2015,40countriesexperienceddisastersthatcauseddamageexceeding10%ofGDP(CevikandHuang2018).1In2017,globallossesrelatedtoclimatechangeamountedto$340billion,ofwhich$200wereuninsured(IMF2019a).Asclimatechangerisksincrease,countriesthatareparticularlyvulnerablefacepersistentuncertaintyoverbothcurrentandfutureimplicationsforfiscalsustainability.

Centralfinanceagencies(CFAs)canplayakeyroleinsupportingnationaleconomicpriorities,includingprioritiesaffectedbyclimatechange.CFAs2areresponsibleformanagingpublicresourcesandcancontributetolong-termeconomicgrowthbyusingwell-designedfiscalpolicytocreatemacroeconomicstabilityandinfluenceworkandinvestmentincentives(

Figure1.1

;Allenetal.2015;IMF2015).Asaresult,CFAs—alongwithother

Figure1.1:FiveCloselyRelatedCoreCentralFinanceAgencyFunctions

Corecentralfinancefunctions

Taxandsubsidy

Debt

Budget

Financialsystem

SOEs

policy

management

management

regulation

andPPPs

Designand

Establishand

Formulateand

Formulateand

Monitorand

implement

executeastrategy

executethe

implement

manageSOEs

policiestoraise

tofinance

government

regulationsto

andPPPs

government

government

budget

managefinancial

revenueand

expenditureat

institution

incentivize

thelowestpossible

health,protect

economic

costandatan

consumers,and

activities

acceptablelevel

ofrisk

maintainfinancialstability

Fiscalsustainability

Ensuregovernmentscanmaintainpublic

financesatacredibleandserviceableposition

overthelongterm

Long-termgrowthanddevelopment

Supportsustainableeconomicdevelopmentbycreatinglastinggrowth

PPP=public–privatepartnership,SOE=state-ownedenterprise.

Note:TheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)identifiesawiderangeofgovernmentactivitiesandpolicyresponsibilitiesoftheministryoffinanceorothercentralfinanceagencies(Allenetal.2015).Basedontheseactivities,thisreportdefinesfivecorecentralfinanceagencyfunctionsthatworkinclosecoordination.

Sources:Allen,R.,Y.Hurcan,M.Queyranne,andS.Ylaoutinen.2015.TheEvolvingFunctionsandOrganizationofFinanceMinistries.IMFWorkingPaper,15/232.Washington,DC.:InternationalMonetaryFund;IMF.1999.GuidelinesforPublicExpenditureManagement;IMF.2001.GuidelinesforPublicDebtManagement;I.Lienert.2010.OptimalStructuresforMinistriesofFinance.PublicFinancialManagement,Blog,29March;OECD.2013a.GovernmentataGlance2013.Paris:OECDPublishing;Quintyn,M.andM.W.Taylor.2004.ShouldFinancialSectorRegulatorsBeIndependent?EconomicIssues,32;TreasuryCommittee.2011.PrinciplesofTaxPolicy.London:TheStationeryOfficeLimited.

1Althoughmany(butnotall)physicalhazard-drivendisastersarerelatedtoclimate,climatechangeisnotalwaystheunderlyingdriverofindividualextremeweatherevents,evenwhentherisksarelinkedtoclimatechange.

2TheentityorentitiesresponsibleforgovernmentfinancialfunctionsaresometimesreferredtoasCFA(Allenetal.2015;WorldBank2013).

TheCFAisusuallytheministryoffinance,butcanalsobeotherministriesandagenciessuchasplanningministriesorcentralbanks.Toreflectthattheorganizationalstructurevariesacrosscountries,thisreportusesthetermCFAtodefinethegovernment’scorefinancialfunctions.

ContextofFiscalPlanningforClimateRisks3

Climaterisks

Key

impact

channels

Policyactions

Outcomes

Chronicrisks

e.g.,sealevelandtemperaturerise

Implicit/explicitliabilities

?Reliefcosts

?Reconstruction

costs

?SOEandPPP

liabilities

Adaptationneeds

?Infrastructureresilience

?Sectoralresilience(e.g.,climate-smartagriculture)

Publicservices

?Poverty

?Publichealth

?Education

Resourceoptimization

Long-termgrowthanddevelopment

Figure1.2:TheImpactsofClimateRisksonFiscalSustainability

Climatefiscalriskassessment

Acuterisks

e.g.,floodsandstorms

Macroeconomicshocks

?Sectoralshocks

?Commoditypriceshocks

?Infrastructuredisruptionanddamage

?Financialsectorrisks

Climatefiscalriskmanagement

Fiscalsustainability

PPP=private-publicpartnership,SOE=state-ownedenterprise.

Sources:Conceptualizedbytheauthors,basedonDunz,N.andS.Power.2021.Climate-RelatedRisksforMinistriesofFinance:AnOverview.Washington,DC:CoalitionofFinanceMinistersforClimateAction;Hallegatte,S.,J.Rentschler,andJ.Rozenberg.2020.AdaptationPrinciples:AGuideforDesigningStrategiesforClimateChangeAdaptationandResilience.Washington,DC:WorldBank.

astrategyformanagingfiscalexposuretoacuterisks,andresourceoptimization,bymobilizingenoughresourcestoreducetheimpactsofincreasingchronicandacuterisksthroughadaptation(CoalitionofFinanceMinistersforClimateAction2022).

Makinginternallyconsistentandevidence-basedpoliciesformanagingclimate-relatedrisksandsupportingadaptationneedsisanotherimportantrole.AwidebodyofliteratureongreeningfiscalpolicyhighlightsseveralchallengesCFAsface,including:

?Incoherencebetweenpriorities:Sincemanygovernmentagenciesareinvolvedindesigningandimplementingclimate-relatedpolicies,failuretocollaboratecloselycancreatedissonancebetweenadaptationprioritiesandriskmodelingapproaches.

?Limitedinstitutionalcapacity:Assessingphysicalclimate-relatedrisksofteninvolvesconductingorusingresultsfromtechnicalmodeling.CFAsinmanycountriesarealreadyresource-constrainedandmaylackthecapacitytoundertakesuchassessments.

?Disconnectionbetweentheoryandpractice:Thereisalargebodyofguidanceongreeningfiscalpolicyandincorporatingclimate-relatedriskinformationintomanagementstrategies.However,muchofthisistheoretical,andgoodpracticescanfocusonadvancedpolicy.Assuch,CFAneedsmaynotalignwiththeseapproaches.

4

ReportStructureandObjectives

TheobjectiveofthisreportistoprovideactionableinsightsforCFAsonincorporatingclimate-relatedriskinformationintotheirdecisions.Therearethreecentralaims.ThefirstistoconsolidatealargeevidencebaseofresourcesthatmayberelevanttoCFAsongoodpracticesforclimaterisk-drivenfiscalpolicy.Second,thereportaimstomakestronglinksbetweentheoreticalgoodpracticeandpracticalimplementationneeds,identifyingentrypointsforgoodpracticeuseofriskinformationinthepublicfinancemanagement(PFM)cycleandfiscalpolicy.ThethirdaimistoconsiderCFAneeds,objectives,andcapacities,recognizingthatgoodpracticemayvaryacrosscountriesduetodifferencesinhuman,technical,andfinancialcapacities.Moreadvancedapproachestypicallyinvolvedeepersystematicunderstandingofrisknarrativesandpriorities,leveragingrobustmodelingapproachestoaccountforawidevarietyofrisksandimpacts,usingriskinformationtoguidedecisionsandpolicytoolsthatmeetriskandadaptationne