德勤+2024全球銀行和資本市場(chǎng)展望-英

2024

banking

andcapitalmarkets

outlookBanks’

strategic

choices

will

be

tested

asthey

contend

with

multiple

fundamentalchallenges

to

their

business

models.

They

mustdemonstrate

conviction

and

agility

to

thrive.i03

...Navigating

the

changing

contours

of

the

global

economy11

...Forces

shaping

the

future

of

the

B&CMindustry15

...Retailbanking:

Fortifyingcustomerrelationships

andowningagreatershare

of

wallet21

...Consumerpayments:Grabbing

abigger

slice

of

therevenuepie

inafast-evolvingecosystem28...Wealth

management:Revamping

the

adviceenginefor

thefuture

of

wealth32

...Corporate

andtransaction

banking:

Enabling

e?cientmoney?owsthrough

digitization39

...Investmentbanking

andcapitalmarkets:

Rejiggeringbusinessmodelsandleadingwithcutting-edgetechnology44

...Market

infrastructure:

Reinventingbusinessmodelsandbecoming

more

indispensableto

clients49

...EndnotesKEY

MESSAGES?????Aslowing

global

economy,

coupled

withThe

exponential

pace

of

new

technologies,and

the

con?uence

of

multiple

trends,

arein?uencing

how

banks

operate

and

servecustomer

needs.

Theimpact

ofgenerativeAI,

industry

convergence,

embedded?nance,

open

data,

digitization

of

money,decarbonization,digitalidentity,andfraudwill

grow

in

2024.Investment

banking

and

sales

and

tradingbusinesses

will

need

to

adapt

to

newcompetitive

dynamics.

Forces

like

thegrowth

of

private

capitalwill

challenge

thissector

to

o?er

more

value

to

both

corporateand

buy-side

clients.a

divergent

economic

landscape,

willchallenge

the

banking

industry

in

2024.Banks’

ability

to

generate

income

andmanage

costs

will

be

tested

in

new

ways.?Multiple

disruptive

forces

are

reshaping

thefoundational

architecture

of

the

bankingand

capital

markets

industry.

Higherinterest

rates,reducedmoneysupply,moreassertiveregulations,climatechange,andgeopoliticaltensionsare

key

driversbehindthis

transformation.Early

2023

shocks

to

global

banking

havegalvanized

the

industry

to

reassess

theirstrategies.

While

bank

leaders

focus

onproposed

regulatory

changes

to

capital,liquidity,

and

risk

management

for

US

banks,there

is

much

to

be

done

to

evolve

businessmodels.Banks,

in

general,

are

on

sound

footing,but

revenue

models

will

be

tested.

Organicgrowthwillbemodest,forcinginstitutionsto

pursue

new

sources

of

value

in

a

capital-scarce

environment.2Navigating

thechangingcontoursof

theglobal

economyAslowing

global

economy

coupled

with

Global

in?ation

is

expected

to

drop

to

5.2%

in

2024,a

divergent

economic

landscape

will

from

a

high

of

8.7%

in

2022,

as

per

the

IMF.

In

coun-challenge

the

banking

industry

in

new

tries

such

as

the

United

States,

the

labor

market

andways

in

2024.

Although

recent

e?orts

consumer

spending

are

showing

signs

of

decelerationto

combat

in?ation

are

showing

signs

but

are

still

elevated,

challenging

the

targets

set

byof

success

in

many

countries,

the

risks

central

banks.

In

fact,

the

IMF

predicts

that

in?ationbrought

to

light

by

supply

chain

disruptions,

rewiring

in

almost

all

countries

will

remain

above

target

rates.4of

trade

relationships,

and

ongoing

geopolitical

tensionswill

complicate

economic

growth

worldwide.

Extreme

Central

banks

will

be

?ne-tuning

their

monetary

poli-weather-related

events,

such

as

?oods,

heatwaves,

and

cies

through

2024

(?gure

1).

The

federal

funds

rate

inhurricanes,mayalsocausesevereeconomicdisruption.

the

United

States

is

expected

to

remain

elevated

at

orabove

550

basis

points

going

into

2024

but

may

dropWith

this

backdrop,

the

International

Monetary

Fund

to

between

450

and

500

basis

points

in

the

second(IMF)

expects

the

world

economy

to

grow

at

no

half

of

2024,

according

to

latest

FOMC

projections.5more

than

3.0%

in

2024.1

Advanced

economies—i.e.,

The

European

Central

Bank

(ECB)

is

expected

to

beginthe

United

States,

the

Euro

area,

Japan,

the

United

decreasing

interest

rates;

in

August

2023,

the

ECBKingdom,

and

Canada—are

forecast

to

experience

tepid

policy

rate

stood

at

3.75%,

matching

the

peak

in

2001.growth

at

1.4%

in

2024.2

But

many

emerging

econo-6mies

should

see

higher

growth

on

the

back

of

strong

Meanwhile,

the

Bank

of

England

is

expected

to

lowerconsumer

demand,

younger

demographics,

and

improv-

the

policy

rate

in

the

?rst

half

of

2024

after

reaching

aing

trade

balances.

In

particular,

India

is

expected

to

peak

of

5.75%

at

the

end

of

2023.

The

story

is

similar

to7haveoneofthestrongestgrowthrates:6.3%in2024.3the

Bank

of

Canada:

Rates

should

decline

in

the

secondhalf

of

2024

after

surpassing

5%,

as

per

the

CanadianOn

the

other

hand,

China

is

facing

a

potential

economic

Economic

Quarterly

Forecast

by

TD

Economics.8

Inslowdownwithweakconsumerdemandanddistressed

contrast

to

other

central

banks,

the

Bank

of

Japan

hasproperty

markets.

The

weakness

in

Chinese

exports

and

kept

the

policy

rate

near

zero,

but

its

July

2023

meetingimports

will

not

only

impact

its

trading

partners,

but

may

indicated

that

it

would

tweak

the

bond

yield

curve

controlwell

challenge

supply

chain

dynamics

and

further

weaken

schemes

to

respond

more

nimbly

to

price

pressures.9global

recovery.

Recent

e?orts

to

revive

consumer

andcorporate

con?dence

in

China

could

in?uence

economic

But

generally,

central

banks’

quantitative

tighteninggrowthinothercountries,particularlyinAsia.measures

will

contract

global

money

supply.

In

fact,

inthe

United

States,

money

supply,

as

measured

by

M2,

hasbeenfallingatitsfastestratesincethe1930s.103Figure

1Interestrates

shouldstartto

dropin2024Policy

interest

rates

across

different

geographiesUnited

StatesCanadaUnited

KingdomEuropean

UnionAustraliaForecasts7%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%20152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Source:DeloitteCenterforFinancialServicesanalysisofEconomistdatabase,August2023.These

challenges

will

result

in

divergent

and

sporadic

However,

elevated

rates

will

continue

to

push

fund-economic

growth.

Some

economies

will

face

a

brighter

ing

costs

higher

and

squeeze

margins.

The

pace

andfuture,

while

others

will

still

be

?ghting

stickier

in?ation

steepness

of

the

current

rate

cycles

have

dramaticallyandlowgrowth.boosted

the

cost

of

interest-bearing

deposits

for

USbanks.

But

these

costs

have

risen

more

sharply

forHow

will

the

macroeconomic

environment

in

regional

and

midsize

banks.

For

instance,

deposit2024

impact

the

banking

industry?costs

for

the

largest

banks

stood

at

2.2%

in

Q22023,

compared

to

2.5%

for

the

smaller

banks.12Banks

globally

will

face

a

unique

mix

of

challenges

in

This

is

a

similar

pattern

in

other

countries

that

have2024.

Each

of

these

hurdles

will

impact

banks’

ability

to

experiencedratehikes.generate

income

and

manage

costs

(both

interest

costsandoperationalexpenses).Going

forward,

the

global

banking

industry

maybe

hard-pressed

to

bring

down

high

deposit

costs(and

lower

deposit

betas)

even

as

interest

rates

drop.Customer

expectations

of

higher

rates,

coupled

withDeposit

costs

are

here

to

stay—for

nowHigher

interest

rates

have

been

a

boon

to

the

bank-

increased

market

competition,

will

force

many

banksing

industry.

In

2022,

net

interest

income

increased

to

o?er

higher

deposit

rates

to

retain

customers

andsigni?cantly

in

many

jurisdictions,

with

American

and

shore

up

liquidity.

The

situation

will

vary

by

region,Canadian

banks

posting

a

rise

of

18%

year

over

year

though.

European

banks

may

be

able

to

decrease(YoY),followedbytheirEuropeanpeersat11%.11deposit

costs

more

rapidly,

for

instance.

The

European4banking

industry

has

not

faced

as

much

competition

REAL

ESTATE

JITTERSfrom

money

market

funds,

unlike

in

the

United

States.During

the

banking

turmoil

in

March

2023,

in?ows

Residential

mortgage

origination

in

the

United

States

may

see

ainto

Europe’s

money

market

funds

totaled

US$19.3

robust

increase

in

contrast

to

other

advanced

economies

suchbillion,

dwar?ng

in

comparison

to

US$367

billion

into

astheUnitedKingdom,Germany,andAustralia.However,thethe

US

money

market

funds.13

Similarly,

Asian

banks,

commercial

real

estate

(CRE)

sector

in

the

United

States

willin

India,

for

instance,

may

sustain

higher

rates

in

the

continue

to

be

stressed,

and

this

will

particularly

a?ect

regionalwake

of

stronger

economic

growth.

In

fact,

banks

in

and

midsize

banks

that

maybe

overexposed

to

o?ce

space.

IntheAsia-Paci?c(APAC)regionareexpectedtooutpace

light

ofhigheruncertainty,

in?ated

property

prices,

and

concernsglobal

peers

in

generating

stronger

net

interest

income.

about

debt

repayments,

banks

will

be

more

selective

in

theirnewCRE

originations

and

re?nancing.

Banks

could

also

be

forced

torealize

losses

on

certain

loan

portfolios

if

there

are

?re

sales

orforeclosures

at

a

largescale.

CRE

loan

delinquencies

are

alreadyrising.Thedelinquencyrate

(90+days

pastdue)intheUnitedLoans

growth

will

be

modest,

at

bestIn

terms

of

loan

growth,

we

expect

demand

to

be

modest

States

has

increased,from

1.84%

in

Q42022

to

3.3%

in

Q1

2023.15given

the

macroeconomic

conditions

and

high

borrowingcosts.

Banks

will

also

likely

continue

their

restrictive

The

European

CRE

marketappears

to

be

more

resilientthancredit

lending

policies.

According

to

the

recent

bank

the

US

market.

European

CRE

loans

are

largely

concentratedlending

surveys

conducted

by

the

Federal

Reserve

and

the

among

the

larger

banks

that

are

well-capitalized.16ECB,

many

banks

have

already

tightened

credit

standards

The

APAC

region

is

also

expectedto

follow

a

smoothertrajectory;across

all

productcategories.

They

anticipate

further

tight-

demand

from

the

hospitality

sector

should

supportgrowth

inening

due

to

a

less

favorable

economic

outlook

and

likely

CRE

loans,

while

multifamily

residential

mortgages

will

likelydeterioration

in

collateral

values

and

credit

quality.14

see

a

continued

uptick.However,

the

impact

of

the

macroeconomic

environ-ment

will

be

disparate

across

loan

categories.

Consumerspending

has

remained

robust

in

major

economies,

but

Climate

change

should

also

play

an

important

role

inas

consumer

savings

deplete,

demand

for

credit

card

loan

demand

and

credit

availability.

According

to

aand

auto

loans

should

remain

strong.

At

the

same

time,

recent

EU

Bank

survey,17

over

the

next

12

months,

banksacross

the

United

States

and

Europe,

bank

loan

demand

expect

a

stronger

credit

tightening

due

to

climate

risksfrom

?rms

has

decreased

signi?cantly.

Bank

loans

to

on

credit

standards

for

loans

to

“brown”

?rms,

while

acorporates

may

weaken

in

the

short

term

but

could

pick

net

easing

impact

is

expected

for

green

?rms

and

?rmsup

later

in

2024.

(See

sidebar,

“Real

estate

jitters”

for

transitioning

to

decarbonization.

Firm-speci?c

climate-re-commentaryoncommercialrealestateloans.)lated

transition

risks

and

physical

risks

should

have

amuch

larger

role

in

credit

disbursements

going

forward.185The

combination

of

higher

deposit

costs,

lower

policy

Noninterest

income

is

expected

to

grow

meaningfullyrates,

and

somewhat

constrained

loan

potential

can

in

the

next

few

years

(?gure

3).

Most

banks

will

seekadversely

impact

banks’

ability

to

generate

strong

net

to

raise

fee

income

through

a

variety

of

channels,

butinterest

margin

(NIM)

in

2024.

In

fact,

banks’

NIMs

may

theymayfacesomeconstraintsindoingso.Consumer-alreadyhavepeaked,assuggestedbyrecentbankearn-

focusedfees,suchasoverdraftfees,nonsu?cientfundsings.

US

and

European

banks

should

experience

a

decline

fees,

and

credit

card

late

fees,

could

attract

regulatoryin

net

interest

margins

in

2024

(?gure

2).

APAC

banks

scrutiny.are

more

likely

to

enjoy

stronger

net

interest

income

nextyear

with

a

higher—and

possibly

rising—rate

environ-

However,

banks

with

stronger

advisory,

underwriting,ment

in

many

developing

countries.

These

new

factors

and

corporate

banking

franchises

should

have

morewill

likely

force

banks

to

reassess

the

true

cost

of

deposits

room

to

grow

their

fee

income.

Clearer

valuations

andandhowtheymaybedeployed.a

backlog

of

deals

should

lead

to

higher

M&A

andissuance

activities

in

the

United

States,

boosting

fees.However,

reduced

volatility

across

di?erent

products

willcrimprevenuegrowthinbothequitiesandFICC(?xedincome,commodities,andcurrencies)trading.More

noninterest

incomesources

will

be

sought

outBanks

should

prioritize

noninterest

income

in

2024to

make

up

for

the

shortfall

in

net

interest

income.Figure

2NIMwilldeclineformostbanksasdepositbetascatchupNIM

for

select

countriesUnited

StatesCanadaUnited

KingdomGermanyJapanAustraliaForecasts4%3%2%1%0%2019202020212022202320242025Source:DeloitteCenterforFinancialServicesforecastbasedonS&PMarketIntelligencedatabase.6Figure

3Noninterestincomeshouldgrowmodestlydueto

higher

fee-basedincomeNoninterest

income/assets

for

select

countriesUnited

StatesCanadaUnited

KingdomGermanyJapanAustraliaForecasts1.2%1.0%0.8%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.0%2019202020212022202320242025Source:DeloitteCenterforFinancialServicesforecastbasedonS&PMarketIntelligencedatabase.Sharpening

the

cost

disciplineexpenses.

Many

banks

will

also

continue

to

invest

intechnology

to

remain

competitive.

Attracting

talent

inWith

the

rising

pressure

on

revenue

generation,

cost

disci-

specialized

areas

such

as

arti?cial

intelligence,

cloud,

datapline

will

become

even

more

of

a

priority,

and

possibly

a

science,

and

cybersecurity

should

bump

up

compensa-competitive

di?erentiator

for

banks.

E?ciency

ratio

has

tion

expenses,

even

as

banks

rationalize

in

other

areas.been

improving

in

the

last

few

years

globally

(Figure

4),

In

addition,

tight

labor

markets

and

accelerated

wagebut

it

is

expected

to

inch

higher

in

2024,

due

to

sluggish

growth

in

traditional

o?shore

locations

should

add

torevenue

growth

and

high

operating

and

compensation

theindustry’scostpressures.7Figure

4Efficiencyratioshave

improvedamongmanybanksbutwilllikelyfacestiffchallengesEfficiency

ratio

for

select

countries20202021202275%70%65%60%55%50%UnitedStatesCanadaUnitedKingdomGermanyJapanAustraliaSource:DeloitteCenterforFinancialServicesanalysisbasedonS&PMarketIntelligencedatabase.Guarding

against

loan

lossesSimilarly,

corporate

default

rates

in

the

speculative

grademayalsoincrease.In

the

?rst

half

of

2023,

many

banks

raised

their

provi-sions

for

future

credit

losses,

anticipating

elevated

While

credit

quality

is

decreasing

and

showingloan

defaults

from

a

pandemic-era

low.

For

instance,

stress

in

speci?c

segments,

credit

quality

as

a

wholein

Q2

2023,

cumulative

provisions

for

the

top

10

US

appears

to

be

normalizing

to

prepandemic

levels.banks

rose

by

26%

quarter

over

quarter

(QoQ).19

Banks

are

continuing

to

build

reserves

to

restoreCredit

quality

is

expected

to

deteriorate

as

custom-

reduced

balances

over

the

last

few

years.

Most

largeers’

ability

to

pay

o?

loan

diminishes,

and

the

banks,

globally,

seem

to

have

adequate

liquidity

andfull

impact

of

inflation

and

monetary

tighten-

strong

capital

bu?ers

to

withstand

a

severe

down-ing

is

felt

by

businesses

and

consumers.

There

is

turn,

as

evidenced

by

recent

stress

test

results

by

thealready

evidence

of

rising

delinquencies

in

certain

Federal

Reserve,

the

ECB,

and

the

Bank

of

England.21loan

categories,

such

as

credit

cards

and

CRE.20,8US

BASEL

III

ENDGAME

IMPLICATIONSThe

US

federal

banking

regulators

recently

released

changes,

including

the

application

of

AOCI,

G-SIB

The

new

rules

will

also

require

banks

to

factor

ina

notice

of

proposed

rulemaking

(NPR)

on

Basel

surcharge,

and

dual-RWA

requirements,

will

unrealized

gains

and

losses

in

capital

ratios

to

complyIII

?nal

reforms.The

proposed

changes

areaimed

lead

to

higher

operational

burdens,

requiring

with

the

supplementary

leverageratio

requirementatimproving

the

“strength

and

resiliency”

of

the

signi?cant

investment

in

risk

management,data,

and

the

countercyclical

capital

bu?er.In

the

shortUS

banking

system

and

will

impact

the

regulatory

controls,

compliance,

and

validation

infrastructure.

term,

some

banks

may

look

atdiminished

buybacks.capital

frameworks

forbanks

above

US$100

billionThey

could

also

impact

investments

in

technologyin

assets

(about36

banks).

Smaller

banks

with

The

impacton

banks

with

large

recurring

and

and

marketexpansion

strategies.signi?cant

trading

activity

will

also

be

subject

to

the

fee-based

businesses,

such

as

creditcard

feesnew

risk

framework.

These

changes

are

estimated

and

investmentbanking

fees,

as

per

the

Federal

The

Basel

III

NPR

allows

a

transition

period

ofthreeto

result

in

a

16%

increase

to

CET1

(common

equity

Reserve

will

be

“exacerbated

by

the

use

of

an

internal

years,

starting

July

1,

2025.24

The

proposed

rulestier1)

capital

levels

and

a

20%increase

to

RWA(risk-

loss

multiplier

thatmay

resultin

an

excessive

will

undoubtedly

evolve

in

the

future,

butitwillweighted

assets)

forlarge

bank-holding

companies.22

overall

capital

charge

for

operational

risk.”23

be

important

for

bankstoassess

existinginternalThe

new

provisions

willreduce

fee

margins

for

infrastructure

and

potentialstrategic

implications,Highercapital

requirements

are

likely

to

disadvantage

securities

underwriting

and

could

materially

reduce

and

engage

in

continuous

conversations

withglobal

banks

domiciled

in

the

United

States

and

the

depth

of

banks’

products.

This

could

further

regulators.25constrain

lending,

capital

markets,

and

trading

increasetransfer

ofservicesandassociatedrisksactivities

of

all

banks,

possibly

beneto

nonbanks/unregulated

sectors.nonbanks

and

smallerinstitutions.

These

expansiveFigure

5Bankprofitabilitywillbechallengedin2024ROAE

for

select

countriesUnited

StatesCanadaUnited

KingdomGermanyJapanAustraliaForecasts15%12%9%6%3%0%2019202020212022202320242025Source:DeloitteCenterforFinancialServicesforecastbasedonS&PMarketIntelligencedatabase.9Bank

pro?tability

in

many

regions

will

be

tested

in

2024

seen

fundamental

shifts

with

Chinese

and

American

banksdue

to

higher

funding

costs

and

sluggish

revenue

growth

dominating

the

global

rankings.

Figure

6

shows

the

changes(?gure

5).

However,

banks

with

more

diversi?ed

reve-

in

size

(as

measured

by

assets)

and

the

number

of

banksnuestreamsandastrongcostdisciplineshouldbeable

from

each

country

in

the

top

global

100

banks.

Over

theto

boost

their

pro?tability,

and

possibly

their

market

next

decade,

more

banks

from

India

and

the

Middle

Eastvaluation,morethanmost.are

expected

to

join

the

ranks

of

the

top

100,

tilting

thebalance

toward

Asia

and

the

Middle

East.

Indian

bankswill

grow

their

balance

sheets

as

the

economy

grows

andhuge

investments

are

made

in

domestic

infrastructure,

butthey

may

struggle

to

break

outside

their

domestic

markets.The

tilt

toward

AsiaGoing

forward,

the

size

and

scope

of

global

banking

will

Meanwhile,

sovereign

wealth

funds

in

the

Middle

East

willchange

even

more.

The

global

banking

industry

has

already

likelyexertstrongin?uenceonglobalmoney?ows.Figure

6AsianandMiddleEasternbanksaregrowingat

aquickerpaceTop

100

banks

in

total

assets15%ChinaBelgiumUnited

Statesof

AmericaCanadaIndiaSingapore10%5%SouthKoreaFranceUnited

KingdomSwitzerlandSpainSwedenBrazilItalyJapanNetherlandsGermany0%0510152025Australia-5%-10%Number

of

banks

in

Top

100Notes:Thesizeofbubblesrepresentsthetotalassetsofthetop100banksineachcountry;UnitedArabEmirates,Qatar,HongKong,Austria,Norway,Finland,andDenmarkhaveonebankeachinthetop100byassets.Source:DeloitteCenterforFinancialServicesanalysisofRefinitivdatabase,August2023.10Forces

shapingthefuture

of

theB&CM

industryI(?gure7).institutions.n

addition

to

the

macroeconomic

factors

high-

Not

only

are

competitive

dynamics

shifting,

but

the

pacelighted

in

the

previous

chapter,

the

banking

and

and

intensity

with

which

rivals

are

challenging

bankscapital

markets

industry

must

contend

with

vari-

is

unprecedented.

Banks

are

now

more

intensely

pittedous

fundamental

and

disruptive

forces

challenging

against

traditional

and

new

rivals

as

more

customersincumbent

institutions’

business

models

in

2024

become

open

to

having

their

needs

met

by

non?nancialFigure

7ThemeshighlightedinDeloitte’s

2024bankingandcapitalmarketsoutlookmCompetitionandecosystemDigitizationandexponentialMacroeconomicenvironmenttechnologiessRegulationsDataRetailbankingConsumerpaymentsMarketinfrastructureSustainabilityandclimateGenerativeAIInvestmentbankingWealthmanagementCorporateandtransactionbankingCustomerbehaviorEmergingrisksPrivatecapitalTalentM&ASource:DeloitteCenterforFinancialServicesanalysis.11Deposits,

for

example,

have

become

aferocious

battle-

Concurrently,

customers

are

becoming

more

vocal

aboutground.

Retail

banks

are

competing

with

digital

banks

their

evolving

expectations.

They

want

their

banks

too?ering

higher

deposit

costs.

And

in

the

payments

arena,

balance

digital-?rst

experiences

without

compromisingdigital

wallets

and

account-to-account

payments

are

fast

the

personal

touch.

Information

is

also

becoming

democ-becoming

the

de

facto

payment

options

in

many

coun-

ratized,

with

technology

and

social

media

empoweringtries,

while

buy

now,

pay

later

(BNPL)

is

more

widely

customers

in

ways

not

seen

before.

Banks

should

heedaccepted

as

a

mainstream

o?ering

and

alternative

to

these

new

demands

as

retail

customers

are

spoiled

forcreditcard?nancing.choice

and

many

will

be

willing

to

switch

accounts

anddiversify

their

relationships

across

multiple

platformsCapital

markets

and

investment

banking

businesses

are

with

a

tap

on

their

smartphones.

Younger

consumers,not

immune

to

new

comp