國(guó)際商業(yè)地理

MapoftheWorld

?QuestionsGeographyasks:

-"W/zeje?”questions(descriptiveinventory)

Wherearethingslocated?

Whatistheirdistributionacrossthesurfaceoftheearth?

-and“How?"questions(analyticalapproach)

Whyarethingslocatedwheretheyare?

Howdodifferentthingsrelatetooneanotherataspecificplace?

Howdodifferentplacesrelatetoeachother?

Howhavegeographicpatternsandrelationshipschangedovertime?

-Whatisgeography?(amoreacademicdefinition)

Itisconcernedwithplace,describesthechangingpatternofplaces,andattemptstounravelthe

meaningoftheevolvingofsuchpatterns.

Itseekstounderstandthephysicalandculturalfeaturesofplacesandtheirnaturalsettingsonthe

faceoftheearth.

Thespatialdimensioniscentraltogeography.

Itusesadistinctivelanguage-thelanguageofmaps.

?PartVI-themostinsightful&enlighteningpartthistableprovides:

Geographyhelpsustounderstandtheworld,theearthasitwas,itspasttense,toexplorethe

worldasitis,itspresenttense,andtothinkoftheworldasitmightbe,itsfuturetense.

BOBOS0BOBDSO

TheCarnegieReportonHigherEducation(1991)setsforththealmostcertaindangersthatexistin

theglobalfutureifwefailtoseetheworldasthus:

Theworldhasbecomeamorecrowded,moreinterconnected,morevolatileandmore

unstableplace.Ifeducationcannothelpstudentsseebeyondthemselvesandbetter

understandtheinterdependentnatureofourworld,theneachgenerationwillremain

ignorant,anditscapacitytolivecompetentlyandresponsiblyw川bedangerously

diminished,(p.42)

?Maps

1.Somefundamentalconceptsofspaceandlocation

1)Propertiesofspace

Geographersconsidervariousdimensionsofspace:

One-dimensionalspace,

Three-dimensionalspace,

Two-dimensionalspacethatcanberepresentedonaplane,

Thespatialelementsofpoint,line,andareamaybeusedtodefinethebasicgeographic

conceptsofdistance,direction,andconnectivity^.

2)Twokindsoflocation

Absolutelocation(site)ispositioninrelationtoaconventionalgridsystem,suchaslatitude

andlongitudeorstreetaddresses;

Relativelocation(situation)ispositionwithrespecttootherlocations.Itisameasureof

connectivityandaccessibility,anditusuallychangesovertime.

Theconceptofrelativelocationisofgreaterinteresttoeconomicgeographersthanabsolute

location.

2.Thelanguageofmaps

Cartographers&Cartography-agraphicportrayaloflocation

1)Scale

2)ParallelsofLatitude&MeridiansofLongitude

Bothlatitudeandlongitudearemeasuredindegrees,minutes,andseconds.

▼Equator-alatitudeof0°

Allotherlatitudinallinesareparalleltotheequatorandtoeachotherandthereforearecalled

parallels.Everypointonagivenparallelhasthesamelatitude.

Placesnorthoftheequatorareinnorthlatitudesorv.s.southlatitude.

TheNorthPoleis90°N;theSouthPole90°S.

Placesneartheequatorareinlowlatitude;Placesnearthepoles,highlatitude.

TheTropicofCancer,at23.5°N,andtheTropicofCapricorn,at23.5°S.

TheArcticCircle,at66.5°N,andtheAntarcticCircle,at66.5°S.

Placesbetweentropicandcirclelinesaresaidtobeinmiddlelatitude.

底MeridianofGreenwichorprimemeridian-alongitudeof0°

Meridiansoflongitudearestraightlinesconnectingthepoles.Everymeridianisdrawndue

northandsouth.Theyconvergeatthepolesandarefarthestapartattheequator.

Placeseast(west)oftheprimemeridianareineast(west)longitude.

Themeridianof180°,exactlyhalfwayaroundtheworldfromtheprimemeridian,istheother

dividinglinebetweenplaceseastandwestofGreenwich.

方Thecombinationoflatitudeandlongitudegiveusabsolutelocation.

3.OurGlobe

>NorthernHemispherecontainsthebulkoftheworld'slandandmostoftheprincipalcentersof

populationandindustry,itthereforeiscalledthe"landhemisphere",constitutes80%ofthe

world'stotallandareaandhasapproximately91%oftheworld'spopulation.

bSouthernHemisphere,or"waterhemisphere",hasonly20%ofthelandand9%ofthe

population.

4.Differentmaps,differentstandings,&differentperspectivesoftheworld

Center&Margin,orCore&Periphery(ethnocentrism)

?TheFieldofGeography

"Geographyasasynthesizingdiscipline

-GeographyofInternationalTrade

Inthecaseofthiscourse,itfocusesupononeoftheworld'smostimportanteconomicactivities,

theinternationaltrade,andtherefore,itfallswithinthescopeofeconomicgeography.

-TrendsinEconomicGeography

Economicgeographyisconcernedwiththespatialorganizationanddistributionofeconomic

activity,theuseoftheworld'sresources,andthedistributionandexpansionoftheworldeconomy.

CommercialgeographydevelopedduringtheeraofEuropeanexplorationanddiscoveryfrom

the15thcenturythroughthe19thcentury:

BritishscholarG.G.Chisholm(1899)

Hisstatedpurposeofcommercialgeography-tostimulateintellectualinterestingeographicfacts

relatingtotrade;

Hence,hisbookwasaninventoryofcommodityandtradestatistics,hisapproachwasmore

descriptivethananalytical.

Economicgeographywasaffectedby3majorthemesofgeography:

1)Human-environmentalrelations(flourisheduntil1930s),

environmentaldeterminism-Climates,disease,oreventhe"coloredraces“aresomeof

thedeterminantsusedtojustifyeconomicactivities.

2)Arealdifferentiation(influentialfromthelate1930stothelate1950s),

Adoptingtheviewthatallgeographicphenomenawereuniqueandthattheorybuilding

wasoflittlevalue;

Arealdifferentiation-differencesratherthansimilarities-amongplaces,resultedin

detaileddescriptionsofproduction,exchange,andconsumptionwithvoluminousfactual

datainsomeofthegreatregionalwriting,overlookingtheneedforcomparativestudies.

Arealdifferentiationdominatedgeographyattheexpenseofarealintegration.

3)Spatialorganization(nowthedominantapproach).

Howspaceisorganizedbyindividualsandsocietiestosuittheirowndesigns;Framework

foranalyzingandinterpretinglocationdecisionsandspatialstructures;

Themajorityofresearchineconomicgeographytodayremainslocationtheoryand

analysis.Itaimstounderstand"what”productsandservicesareproducedand“how"they

areproduced(i.e.withwhatcombinationofresources),aswellas“where”theyare

producedand“whythere?”Thethemeofspatialorganizationisparticularlyvaluablein

helpingustounderstandworlddevelopmentproblems.

PopulationandtheWorldEconomy

?PopulationProblemsintheWorldToday

/Thestudyofpopulationiscriticallyimportantfor3reasons:

1.Morepeoplearealiveatthistime-6billion-thanatanypointinEarth'slonghistory.

2.Thewordspopulationincreasedatafasterrateduringthe2ndhalfofthe20lhcentury

thaneverbeforeinhistory.

3.Virtuallyallglobalpopulationgrowthisconcentratedinlessdevelopedcountries(LDC).

/Tostudythechallengeofincreasingthefoodsupply,reducingpollution,andencouraging

economicgrowth,geographersmustaskwhereandwhyaregion'spopulationisdistributedas

itis.

1.whereistheworld'spopulationdistributed?

2.wherehastheworld'spopulationincreased?

3.whyispopulationincreasingatdifferentratesindifferentcountries?

4.whymighttheworldfaceanoverpopulationproblem?

Geography'sfocusonansweringthewhereandwhyquestionshelpstoexplaintheglobal

populationproblemandtosuggestsolutions.

/theworld'soverpopulationproblem

1.Overpopulationproblemfromtheperspectiveofglobalization:

ThisproblemisnotsimplyamatterofthetotalnumberofpeopleonEarth,buttherelationship

betweenthenumberofpeopleandtheavailabilityofresources.

Problemsarisewhenanarea'spopulationexceedsthecapacityoftheenvironmenttosupport

thematanacceptablestandardofliving.

2.Overpopulationproblemfromtheperspectiveoflocaldiversity'.

Overpopulationisathreatinsomeregionsoftheworldbutnotinothers.Someregionshavea

favorablebalancebetweenpeopleandavailableresources,whileothersdonot.Further,theregions

withthemostpeoplearenotnecessarilythesameastheregionswithanunfavorablebalance

betweenpopulationandresources.

?PopulationDistribution

1.Populationsizeandpopulationconcentrations

6billionpeople;

3/4oftheworld'spopulationliveononly5%ofEarth'ssurface(whichconsistsofoceansand

lessintensivelyinhabitedland);

Theworld'spopulationisclusteredin5regions:EastAsia,SouthAsia,SoutheastAsia,

WesternEurope,andEasternNorthAmerica.Andthese5regionsdisplaysomesimilarities:

/Mostoftheirpeoplelivenearanocean,ornearariverwitheasyaccesstoanocean,ratherthan

intheinteriorlands.E.g.thePacificcoast,HuangandYangziRivervalleys,thecoastlinesof

theArabianSeaandtheBayofBengal(孟加拉灣),theplainsofGangesriver(恒河),

Indo-china,theAtlanticcoastofNorthAmerica,theGreatLakes,etc.

/Theyoccupygenerallylow-lyingareas(mid-latitudeesp.),withfertilesoilandtemperate

climate.TheyarealllocatedintheNorthernHemispherebetween10°and50°N,withthe

exceptionofpartoftheSoutheastAsiaconcentration.

2.Sparselypopulatedregions

Certainphysicalenvironmentshavesomeinfluencesonpermanenthumansettlement.

Relativelyfewpeopleliveinregionsthataretoodry,toowet,toocold,ortoomountainousfor

activitiessuchasagriculture:

/Drylands

Landsdeficientinmoisturearesparselysettled.Thelargestdesertregion,extendingfrom

NorthAfricatoSouthwestandCentralAsia,isknownbytheSahara,Arabian,TaklaMakan,and

Gobideserts.

Byconstructingirrigationsystems,peoplecansurvivebygrowingcrops(Oasis).

Drylandsmaycontainnaturalresourcesusefultopeople-notably,muchoftheworld'soil

reserves.

/Wetlands

Equatorialheatandmoisture,asintheCongoandAmazonbasins,appeartodetersettlement.Too

muchrainfall(precipitation)andheatrapidlydepletenutrientsfromthesoil,thushindering

agriculture.

/Coldlands

Fewpeopleliveinverycoldregions,suchasnorthernCanada,arcticRussia(Siberia),andnorthern

Scandinavia.

Thepolarregionsreceivelessprecipitationthansomedesertareas,butoverthousandsyearsthe

smallannualsnowfallhasaccumulatedintothickice(permafrostground).

/Highlands

Relativelyfewpeopleliveathighelevations.Thehighestmountainsintheworldaresteep,

snow-covered,andsparselysettled,suchasMountEverest,Alps.

3.PopulationDensity

Themeasuresofdensityhelpgeographerstodescribethedistributionofpeopleincomparisonto

availableresources.

/Arithmeticdensity

Thetotalnumberofpeopledividedbytotallandarea;

Arithmeticdensityanswersthe“where”question,enablinggeographerstomakecomparisons

ofthenumberofpeopletryingtoliveonagivenpieceoflandindifferentregionsoftheworld.

/Physiologicaldensity

Landsuitedforagricultureiscalledarableland.Inaregion,thenumberofpeoplesupported

byaunitareaofarablelandiscalledthephysiologicaldensity.

Thehigherthephysiologicaldensity,thegreateristhepressurethatpeoplemayplaceonthe

landtoproduceenoughfood.Hence,suchdensitymeasureprovidesinsightsintotherelationship

betweenthesizeofapopulationandtheavailabilityofresourcesinaregion.(eg.USvs.Egypt)

/Agriculturaldensity

Theratioofthenumberoffarmerstotheamountofarableland;

Thismeasurehelpsexplaineconomicdifferences.MostDevelopedCountrieshavelower

agriculturaldensitiesbecausetechnologyandfinanceallowafewpeopletofannextensiveland

areasandfeedmanypeople.

0Tounderstandtherelationshipbetweenpopulationandresourcesinacountry,geographers

examineitsphysiologicalandagriculturaldensitiestogether.

LookatTable2-1:

EgyptandNetherlands:thephysiologicaldensitiesofbothEgypt(2147)andthe

Netherlands(1450)arehigh,buttheDutch(58)haveamuchloweragriculturaldensitythan

theEgyptians(737).ThatmeansthatboththeDutchandEgyptiansputheavypressureon

thelandtoproducefood,butthemoreefficientDutchagriculturalsystemrequiresmany

fewerfarmersthandoestheEgyptiansystem.

IndiaandNetherlands:theNetherlands(1450)hasamuchhigherphysiologicaldensity

thandoesIndia(556),butamuchloweragriculturaldensity.ThisshowsthattheDutchhave

extremelylimitedarablelandtomeettheneedsoftheirpopulation(theybuiltdikesand

createdpolders吁田，圍海造田).However,thehighlyefficientDutchfarmerscangeneratea

largefoodsupplyfromalimitedresource.(DutchLady,noEgyptianLady,?)

?Wherehastheworld'spopulationincreased?

1.Measuresofpopulationchange

/Crudebirthrate(CBR):

Thetotalnumberoflivebirthsinayearfbrevery1000peoplealiveinthesociety;ACDRof

20meansthatfbrevery1000peopleinacountry,20babiesarebomovera1-yearperiod.

/Crudedeathrate(CDR):

Thetotalnumberofdeathsinayearforevery1000peoplealiveinthesociety.

/Naturalincreaserate(NIR):NIR(%)=CBR-CDR

Thepercentagebywhichapopulationgrowsinayear.

e.g.NIR=CBR(20)-CDR(5)=15per1000=1.5%

“Natural“meansacountry'sgrowthrateexcludesmigration.

Duringthe1990s,theworldnaturalincreaseratewas1.5,meaningthatworldpopulationgrew

eachyearby1.5%.

Thisrateaffectsthedoublingtime,whichisthenumberofyearsneededtodoubleapopulation,

assumingaconstantrateofnaturalincrease.AtthecurrentNIRof1.5%peryear,worldpopulation

woulddoubleinabout50years.

2.Distributionofnaturalincreaseofworld'spopulation

/Distributionofnaturalincreaserate:

Itshowsverylargeregionaldifferences.TheNIRexceeds3.0%inanumberofcountriesin

centralAfrica,theMiddleEast,andCentralAmerica.Attheotherextreme,theNIRrateis0%or

evennegativeinmuchofEurope,meaningthattheirpopulationisactuallydecliningintheabsence

ofimmigrants.

/Distributionofpopulationgrowth:

Allthegrowthisconcentratedinpoorercountries.Overthepast3decades,about54%ofthe

world'spopulationgrowthhasbeeninAsia,

15%eachinsuh-SaharaAfricaandtheMiddleEast,

10%inLatinAmerica^

EuropeandNorthAmericaeachaccountforonly3%ofglobalpopulationgrowth.

0RegionaldifferencesinNIRmeanthatvirtuallyalltheworld'sadditionalpeopleliveinthe

countriesthatareleastabletomaintainthem.

Wetlands

/Awetlandisavegetatedareathatispermanentlyorperiodicallycoveredbywater,eitheriYesh

orsalt.Marshes,swamps,bayoutsandbogsareamongthetypicalwetlandenvironments.

/Wetlandsareamongthemostproductiveecosystemsonearth.Ashybridenvironment-neither

landnorwater,wetlandsprovidelivingspaceandfoodtodifferentspecies.

/Videoscript:

“Theworld'swetlandsareindanger.Peopleditchthem,drainthem,dikethem,dumpwaste

intothem,anddrownthembehinddams，Swamps,boHS，andmarshesarclosttocreatelandto

—rm°rbuildupon.Asaconsequence,theworld'slosingitsnaturalwaterfilter,itsbuffers

againstfloodsaoderosions,andthecriticalhabitatsandnurseriesforamyriadofspecies.”

/The1971RamsarConventionaimstodesignateand.Pies箕Ye_weUandsand_Protectwildfowls.

Bythelate1990s,morethan100countrieshavesignedthetreaty.

?Whyispopulationincreasingatdifferentratesindifferentcountries?

1.Thedemographictransition

Allcountrieshaveexperiencedsomechangesinnaturalincreaseatdifferenttimesandat

differentrates.Whileratesvaryamongcountries,asimilarprocessofchangeinasociety's

population,knowasdemographictransition、isoperating.

Thedemographictransitionisaprocesswithseveralstages,andeverycountryisinoneof

them.Theprocesshasabeginning,middle,andend,anditisirreversible.Onceacountrymoves

fromonestageoftheprocesstothenext,itdoesnotreverttoanearlierstage,eFigure2-13&

Stage1-LowGrowth-veryhighbirthanddeathratesproducevirtuallynolong-termnatural

increase:

Formostofhumankind'sseveralhundred-thousand-yearoccupancyofEarth,theywerein

stage1ofthedemographictransition.Thenaturalincreaseratewasessentiallyzero,andEarth's

populationwasunchanged,atperhapsone-halfmillion.Duringmostofthisperiod,people

dependedonhuntingandgatheringfbrfood.

Between8000B.C.andA.D.1750,Earth'shumanpopulationincreasedfromapproximately5

millionto800million.Theburstofpopulationgrowtharound8000B.C.wascausedbyagricuhural

revolution、whichwasthetimewhenhumanbeingsfirstdomesticatedplantsandanimals.Despite

suchrevolution,thehumanpopulationremainedinstage1,becausefoodsupplieswerestill

unpredictableduetoclimaticconditions,warsordiseasesthatstayedoutofhumancontrol.

Mostofhumanhistorywasspentinstage1ofthedemographictransition,buttodaynosuch

countryremainsthere.Everycountryhasmovedontoatleaststage2andwiththattransitionhas

experiencedprofoundchangesinpopulation.

Stage2-HighGrowth-rapidlydecliningdeathratescombinedwithveryhighbirthratesproduce

veryhighnaturalincrease:

AfteraroundA.D.1750,theworld'spopulationsuddenlybegantogrow10timesfasterthanin

thepast.Thesuddenburstofpopulationgrowthoccurredbecauseinthelate18thandearly19th

centuriesseveralcountriesmovedintostage2ofthedemographictransition.Why???

Countriesenteredstage2ofthedemographictransitionafter1750asaresultoftheindustrial

revolutionwhichbeganinEnglandinthelate18lhcenturyandspreadtotheEuropeancontinentand

NorthAmericaduringthe19thcentury.Majorimprovementsinindustrialtechnologytransfbnned

theprocessofmanufacturingandtransporting,whichresultedinanunprecedentedlevelofwealth.

Thewealthwasalsousedtoimprovesanitationandpersonalhygiene.Asaresultofsuchpublic

improvements,peoplewerehealthierandlivedlonger.

WhereascountriesinEuropeandNorthAmericaenteredstage2about1800,stage2diffused

tocountriesinAfrica,AsiaandLatinAmericamuchmorerecently,inmostcasesafter1950.And

therecentpushofcountriesintostage2hasbeencausedbymedicalrevolution.Improvedmedical

practicessuddenlyeliminatedmanyofthetraditionalcausesofdeathinLDCsandenabledmore

peopletohavelongerandhealthierlives.

Stage3-ModerateGrowth-birthratesrapidlydecline,whiledeathratescontinuetodecline;

naturalincreaseratesbegintomoderate:

EuropeanandNorthAmericancountriesgenerallymovedfromstage2tostage3ofthe

demographictransitionduringthe1sthalfofthe20thcentury.SomecountriesinAfrica,Asiaand

LatinAmericahavemovedtostage3inrecentyears,whileothersremaininstage2.

Thecrudedeathratedeclinedinstage2followingintroductionofnewtechnologyintothe

society,butthecrudebirthratedeclinesinstage3becauseofchangesinsocialcustoms.Asociety

entersintostage3whenpeoplechoosetohavefewerchildren.Suchdecisionoffamiliesispartlya

delayedreactiontoadeclineindeathrate.Economicchangesinstage3societies,theprocessof

urbanizationinparticular,alsoinducepeopletohavefeweroffspring.Itisoftenthoughttobenot

veryeconomicaltohavealargefamilyincitieswherelivingspacesaresmallerandexpensesare

muchhigherthancountryside.

Stage4-LowGrowth-verylowbirthanddeathratesproducevirtuallynolong-termnatural

increase,andpossiblyadecrease:

AcountryreachesStage4ofthedemographictransitionwhenthecrudebirthratedeclinesto

thepointwhereitequalsthecrudedeathrate,andthenaturalincreaserateapproacheszero.Zero

populationgrowthisatermoftenappliedtostage4countries.

MostEuropeancountrieshavereachedstage4havingNIRsnear0,orevennegative.Social

customsagainexplainthemovementfromonestagetothenext.Increasingly,womeninstage4

societiesenterthelaborforceratherthanstayathomeasfull-timehousewives.Changesinlifestyle

alsoencouragesmallerfamilies.Withincreasedincomeandleisuretime,morepeopleparticipatein

entertainmentandrecreationactivitiesthatmaynotbesuitableforyoungchildren.

&Acountrythathaspassedthroughall4stagesofthedemographictransitionhasinsomeways

completedacircle-fromlittleornonaturalincreaseinstage1,tolittleornonaturalincreasein

stage4.

However,twocrucialdemographicdifferencesunderliethisprocess.First,atstage1,thecrude

birthanddeathratesarehigh,whileatstage4theratesareverylow.Second,thetotalpopulationof

thecountryismuchhigherinstage4thaninstageI.

2.AgeDistribution

Theagestructureofapopulationisextremelyimportantinunderstandingsimilaritiesand

differencesamongcountries.

InnearlyeveryAfricancountry,andinmanyAsianandLatinAmericancountries,morethan

40%ofthepeopleareunderage15.Thishighpercentagefollowsfromthehighcrudebirthratein

theseregions.Thelargepercentageofchildrenstrainstheabilityofpoorercountriestoprovide

neededservicesforthem.

Incontrast,inEuropeanandNorthAmericancountries,whichareatornearstage4ofthe

demographictransition,thepercentageofchildrenunder15isonlyabout20%,andpeopleoverage

65exceed15%ofthepopulationinseveralEuropeancountries,comparedtolessthan5%inmost

Africancountries.Olderpeoplebenefitinstage4countriesfromimprovedmedicalcareandhigher

incomes,butthe“graying”ofthepopulationalsoplacesaburdenonEuropeanandNorthAmerican

governmentstomeettheolderpopulation'sneeds.

3."Why?"questionanswered

Whyisworldwidepopulationincreasingrapidlytoday?Becausefewcountriesareinthetwo

stagesofthedemographictransitionthathavelowpopulationgrowth-nocountryremainsinstage

1,andfewhavereachedstage4.Theoverwhelmingmajorityofcountriesareeitherinstage2or

stage3ofthedemographictransition-stageswithrapidpopulationgrowth-andonlyafewarc

likelytoreachstage4inthenearfuture.

The4-stagedemographictransitionischaracterizedby2bigbreakswiththepast.Thefirst

break-thesuddendropinthedeathratethatcomesfromtechnologicalinnovation-hasbeen

accomplishedeverywhere.Thesecondbreak-thesuddendropinthebirthratethatcomesfrom

changingsocialcustoms-hasyettobeachievedinmanycountries.

Havingcausedthefirstbreakwiththepastthroughdiffusionofmedicaltechnologyworldwide,

EuropeanandNorthAmericancountriesnowurgeothercountriestocompletethesecondbreak

withthepast,thereductioninthebirthrate.Adeclineinthecrudedeathratecanbeinducedthrough

introductionofnewtechnologybyoutsiders,butthecrudebirthratewilldroponlywhenpeople

decideforthemselvestohavefewerchildren.

?Whymighttheworldfaceanoverpopulationproblem?

Whydoesglobalpopulationgrowthmatter?

Willcontinuedpopulationgrowthleadtoglobalstarvation,warandlowerqualityoflife?

1.MalthusonOverpopulation

EnglisheconomistThomasMalthus(1766-1834)wasoneofthefirsttoarguethattheworld's

ratepopulationincreasewasfaroutrunningthedevelopmentoffoodsupplies.Malthus'sviews

remaininfluentialtoday.

MalthusclaimedthatpopulationwasgrowingmuchmorerapidlythanEarth'sfoodsupply,

becausepopulationincreasedgeometrically、whilefoodsupplyincreasedarithmetically.仔Malthus

ontherelationshipsbetweenpeopleandfoodinfutureproducedbygrowthrates:今

?Today:1person,Iunitoffood

?25yearsfromnow:2persons,2unitsoffood

?50yearsfromnow:4persons,3unitsoffood

?75yearsfromnow:8persons,4unitsoffood

?100yearsfromnow:16persons,5unitsoffood

Heconcludedthatpopulationgrowthwouldpressagainstavailableresourcesineverycountry,

unless“moralrestraint”producedlowercrudebirthratesorunlessdisease,famine,war,orother

disastersproducedhighercrudedeathrates.

2.Neo-Malthusians

ContemporarygeographershavebroadenedMalthus'stheorytoencompassawidevarietyof

resources,ratherthanonlyfood.Theypaintafrighteningpictureofaworldinwhichbillionsof

peopleareengagedinadesperatesearchforfoodandfuel.

ManyLDCshaveexpandedtheirfoodproductionsignificantlyinrecentyears,buttheyhave

morepoorpeoplethaneverbefore.Becausepopulationgrowthoutpacedeconomicdevelopment,all

theeconomicgrowthwasabsorbedsimplyinaccommodatingtheadditionalpopulation.

3.Debateoverhowtoreducenaturalincrease

Withdeathratescontrolled,forthefirsttimeinhistorythemostcriticalfactordeterminingthe

sizeoftheworld'spopulationisthebirthrate.Scientistsagreethatthecurrentrateofnatural

increasemustbereduced,buttheydisagreeontheappropriatemethodsforachievingthisgoal.

Theoretically,forcountriescurrentlyinstage2ofthedemographictransition-highgrowth-

naturalincreasecanbereducedinonly2ways:

?Returntostage1byraisingthecrudedeathrateuptothelevelofthecrudebirthrate.

?Movetostages3and4byloweringthecrudebirthratetothelevelofthecrudedeath

rate.

Fewpeoplewishtoseethefirstalternativerealized,leavingthesecondalternativeastheonly

humanchoice.Scientistsandpublichealthofficialsdebate