版權(quán)說明:本文檔由用戶提供并上傳,收益歸屬內(nèi)容提供方,若內(nèi)容存在侵權(quán),請進行舉報或認領(lǐng)
文檔簡介
COVID-19
MACROECONOMIC
POLICYRESPONSES
INAFRICA
25
EnhancingMacroeconomic
Resilience:AComparative
AnalysisofNigeriaandGhana
ChukwukaOnyekwena&OluwatosinDeborahEdafe
IDRC·CRDI
Canada
AboutCoMPRA
TheCOVID-19MacroeconomicPolicyResponseinAfrica(CoMPRA)projectwas
developedfollowingacallforrapidresponsepolicyresearchintotheCOVID-19
pandemicbythe|DRC.Theproject'soverallgoalistoinformmocroeconomicpolicydevelopmentinresponsetotheCOVID-19pandemicbylowandmiddle-income
countries(LMICs)anddevelopmentpartnersthatresultsinmoreinclusive,climate-resilient,effectiveandgender-responsivemeasuresthroughevidence-basedresearch.
ThiswilhelptomitigateCOVID-19ssocialandeconomicimpact,promoterecovery
fromthepandemicintheshorttermandpositionLMICsinthelongertermfora
moreclimate-resilient,sustainableandstablefuture.TheCoMPRAprojectwillfocus
broadlyonAfricancountriesandspecificallyonsixcountries(Benin,Senegal,Tanzania,Uganda,NigeriaandSouthAfrica).SAllAandCSEA,astheleadimplementing
partnersforthisproject,alsoworkwiththinktankpartnersinthesecountries.
OuTDonof
ThisprojectissupportedbytheInternationalDevelopmentResearchCentre(IDRC).TheIDRCisaCanadianfederalCrowncorporation.ItispartofCanada'sforeign
cffairsanddevelopmenteffortsandinvestsinknowledge,innovation,andsolutionstoimprovethelivesofpeopleinthedevelopingworld.
Abstract
Macroeconomicresilienceiscrucialforsustainabledevelopment.NigeriaandGhana,two
prominentWestAfricancountries,havefaceduniquechallengesandopportunitiesinbuildingsuchresilience.Thesetwocountrieshaveexperiencedarangeofeconomicshocksoverthepasttwodecades,includingnaturaldisasters,commoditypricefluctuations,financialcrisesand
globaleconomicdownturns.
Thispaperdiscussestheresultsofacomparativeanalysis
ofthemacroeconomicresilienceofNigeriaandGhana.It
alsoexploresseveralpolicyoptionsforenhancingresilience.Amongthefindingsarethatwhilethetwocountrieshave
somecommonalities,suchasasharedconcernaboutdebtsustainability,theirrespectiveeconomiclandscapesare
influencedbyauniquesetoffactors,necessitatingtailoredapproaches.Therevealedchallengesandopportunitiescanserveasvaluableinsightsforshapingfuturestrategiesaimedatenhancingmacroeconomicresilience,ultimatelyensuringsustainedgrowthandstability.Inadditiontotailored
recommendationsforeachcountry,thepaperrecommendsthatNigeriaandGhanaprioritisecollaborativestrategies
inareasofmutualinterest,suchastrade,energyand
infrastructuredevelopment.Bysharingbestpracticesandworkingtogether,theseneighbourscancollectivelyenhancetheirresiliencetofutureeconomicchallengesandpromotesustainabledevelopmentinWestAfrica.
Introduction
Macroeconomicresilience,definedasacountry'sabilityto
withstandandrecoverfromeconomicshocks,iscrucialfor
sustainabledevelopment.!NigeriaandGhana,twoprominentWestAfricancountries,havefaceduniquechallengesand
opportunitiesinbuildingtheirresilience.Naturaldisasters,commoditypricefluctuations,financialcrisesandglobaleconomicdownturnsareamongthenumerousfactorsthathavesignificantlyimpactedtheeconomicstabilityand
growthtrajectoriesofNigeriaandGhanaovertheperiod2000-2020.2Bothcountriesarevitaleconomicplayersin
“Naturaldisasters
commodityprice
fluctuations,financial
crisesandglobaleconomicdownturnsareamongthenumerousfactorsthat
havesignificantlyimpactedtheeconomicstability
andgrowthtrajectoriesofNigeriaandGhanaoverthe
period2000-2020"
AidaCalderaSanchezetal.,'Strengtheningeconomicresilience:Insightsfromthepost-
1970recordofsevererecessionsandfinancialcrises'(OECDEconomicPolicyPaperno.20,
OECDEconomicPublishing,December2016).
2AndiDuqi,'BankingInstitutionsandNaturalDisasters:Recovery,ReslienceandGrowthin
theFaceofClimateChange'(BankingInstitutionsandNaturalDisaster,July22,2023),7-2,
/10.1007/978-3-031-36371-92
.
3EnhancingMacroeconomicResllence:AComparativeAnalysisofNigeriaandChana
WestAfrica,3sharingsignificanttradedependenciesand
helpingtoforgeregionalintegration.4Nigeria'seconomic
policiesandresponsesduringcrisesinfluenceandguide
othermembersoftheEconomicCommunityofWestAfrican
States(ECOWAS),fosteringregionalstabilityandeconomic
integration.5Despitetheseinterconnections,theyalsoshare
commonchallenges,includingstructuralvulnerabilities,an
over-relianceoncommodities,weakinstitutionalframeworks
andexposuretoclimateshocks,promptingthemtodiversify
theireconomiesandimplementfiscalandmonetaryreforms.
Understandingthesecountries'approachestoresilience
canprovidevaluableinsightsforpolicymakersandother
stakeholders.
WhileNigeriaandGhanahavesignificanteconomic
interlinkagesandhavethereforedisplayedsomesimilarities,
“WhileNigeriaandGhana
therearealsoevidentdivergencesintheirresponsesto
havesignificanteconomic
economicshocks.Thesearepromptedbythediverse
economicstructuresandpolicyapproachesemployedbythetwocountries.Nigeriareliesheavilyonoil,whereasGhana
interlinkagesandhave
thereforedisplayedsome
hasamorediversifiedeconomyandalsobenefitsfrom
similarities,therearealso
relativelybettergovernance.6Itisagainstthisbackground
evidentdivergencesintheir
thatacomparativeanalysisofthemacroeconomicresilience
responsestoeconomic
ofthetwocountrieswasconductedandthepolicyoptions
shocks'
availabletoenhancesuchresiliencewereexplored.
Theapproachemployedinthiscomparativeanalysisinvolved
mappingandexaminingtheeconomiccrisesandtheireffects
onNigeriaandGhanaovera20-yearperiod.Theanalysis
3ECOWAS,'ECOWASofthePeople:PeaceandProsperityforAll,2024,https://www.ecowas.
int/member-states/.
4AyodeleHarunaMustapha,"InterogatingtheContendinglssuesinNigeria-Ghana
Relations:ReciprocityofConsequencesorConstructiveEngagement,International
Relations9,no.01(2021):36-49,
/publication/352999607
InterrogatingtheContendingIssuesinNigeria-GhanaRelationsReciprocityof
ConsequencesorConstructiveEngagement.
5FreedomChukwudiOnuohaandJosephChukwunonsoAkogwu,'NigeriaandtheECOWAS,
inAfrica'sInternationalRelationsinaGlobalisingWorld:PerspectivesonNigerianForeignPolicy
atSixtyandBeyond,ed.UsmanTarandSharkdamWapmuk(London:LexingtonBooks,
2022),143.
6WorldBank,'GhanaRising:AccelerotingEconomicTransformationandCreating
Jobs'(Washington,DC:TheWorldBank,2021),
/
entities/publication/cf765647-105e-56c3-b91e-f42b025ab307.
4
EnhancingMacroeconomicResilience:AComparativeAnalysisofNigeriaandGhana
consideredacomprehensivesetofindicators,suchasgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)growth,
governmentrevenue,debt,GDPpercapita,andvariousfinancial,monetary,fiscalandtrade
indicators.ThepaperdrawscomparisonsbetweenNigeriaandGhanatoidentifysimilaritiesanddifferencesintheirresponsestocrisesandtheresultingeconomicoutcomes.Thiscomparativeapproachallowsvaluablelessonstobedrawnfrombothcountries'experiences.
StructureoftheNigerianandGhanaian
economies
NigeriahasthelargesteconomyinAfrica,withaGDPof$550.93billion(seeFigure1)anda
populationof218.5million.?Withaper-capitaincomeofS2445asof2022(seeFigure2),itis
currentlyclassifiedasalower-middle-incomecountry.8Endowedwithabundantnaturalresources,theNigerianeconomyremainsdependentontheoilsectorforthebulkofitsfiscalrevenue
($25bilionin2022)°andforeignexchangeearnings($2.29billionin2022),1makingitsusceptibletooilpricefluctuationsandexternalshocks.Agriculturewasthemainstayoftheeconomybeforethediscoveryofcrudeoil,buttodaytheoilsectoraccountsfor80%ofgovernmentrevenue,
90%oftotalexportsand95%offoreignexchangeearnings.Nonetheless,theservicessectoristhebiggestcontributortoNigeria'sGDP,accountingfor57%ofGDPinthefirstquarterof2023comparedtotheagriculturalsector's22%andtheindustrysector's21%(seeFigure3).
Ghana,inturn,acountrywithapopulationof33.5millionpeople,hadaGDPof$70billionanda
per-capitaincomeof$2042asof2022(seeFigures1and2)andtotalfiscalrevenueof58.83billionin2022.?Ghana'seconomyislargelydependentontheexportofcommodities,suchasgold,cocoa,oilandgas,whichaccountfor80%ofexportrevenue,makingitvulnerabletoglobaleconomic
slowdownsandfallingcommodityprices.3TheservicessectoristhelargestcontributortoGDPinGhana.Forinstance,inthefirstquarterof2023,itaccountedfor47%ofGDPasaresultofgrowthineducation,health,andinformationandcommunicationtechnology(ICT),whiletheindustry
7InternationalMonetaryFund,'Nigeria,'
/en/Countries/NGA
.
8WorldBank,'WorldBankCountryandLendingGroups,'
/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country
-and-lending-groups.
9FocusEconomics,'NigeriaFiscalOctober2021,'
/countries/nigeria/news/fiscal/governments-proposed-2022
-budget-is-largest-ever/.
10CentralBankofNigeria,CentralBankofNigeriaEconomicReport,Nigeria'sForeignExchangeEarningsfor2022,
.ng/Out/2022/RSD/
May%202022%20Economic%20Report.pdf.
11MichaelChugozieAnyaehieandAnthonyChukwudiAreji,EconomicDiversificationforSustainableDevelopmentinNigeria,'OpenJournalofPoliticalScience5,no.2(2015):87,
/journal/paperabs?paperid=54433
.
12GhanaRevenueAuthority,2022AnnualReport,
.gh/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/GRA-2022-Annual-Report.pdf
.
13EbenezerBoateng,EmmanuelAsafo-Adjei,AlexAddison,SerebourQuaicoe,MawusiAyisatYusufandAnokyeAdam,'Interconnectednessamongcommodities,therealsectorofGhanaandexternalshocks,'ResourcesPolicy75(2022):102511,
/science/article/abs/
pii/S0301420721005183.
5
EnhancingMacroeconomicResilience:AComparativeAnalysisofNigeriaandGhana
Nigeria($billions)
(suo!!!q$)Dupy9
$billions
○
andagriculturalsectorsaccountedfor32%and21%ofGDP,respectively(seeFigure3).4Given
itsstrongagriculturalandservicessectors,Ghanadisplaysarelativelyhigherlevelofeconomic
diversification.Itisconsideredalower-middle-incomecountryandissmallerinsizethanNigeria.
Figure1RespectivesizesoftheNigerianandGhanaianeconomies(GDP),2000-2023
Nigerio
Ghana
source:WorldBank,WorldDevelopmentIndicotors,2023,httpsl/datobankwordbonkorg/source/wold-development-indicotors
Figure2GDPpercapitainNigeriaandGhana,2000-2023
NigeriaGhana
Source:WordBank,WordDevelopmentIndicators,2023,https//dotobonkworldbank,org/source/wodd-development-indicators
14Ghanastotisticolservices,"Newsletter-QuorteryGrossDomesticproductFirstQuorter;https://wwwstotsghana,gov,gh/gssmain/fileuploadl
National%20Accounts/Newsletter_quarterly_GDP-2023_Q1June_2023_Edition_FinaLfinal.pdf.
EnhandingMacroeconomicResilience:AComparativeAnalysisofNigeriaandchana
GDP
Sectoral
Q1
3
Figure
contribution
in
Nigeria
to
andGhana,2023
Agriculture22%
NIGERIA
2023Q1
Industry21%
Services57%
Source:NationalBureauofStatistics,2023,
.ng/
;GhanaStatisticalServices,Newsletter-QuarterlyGrossDomesticProductFirstQuarter,'
.gh/gssmain/fileUpload/National%20Accounts/NewsletterquarterlyGDP2023Q1June2023EditionFinal
final.pdf
ThenatureofmacroeconomiccrisesinNigeriaandGhana
Inthispaper,acrisisisdefinedasaperiodofadeclining/slowrealGDPgrowthrateoranegativeGDPgrowthrate,ie,aperiodofrecession.Dependingonthesourceofthecrisis,itiscategorisedasaglobal/regionaloranationalcrisis.
Global/regionalcrises(exogenousshocks)
Duringtheperiod2000-2022,theworldexperiencedvarioustypesofglobal/regionalcrisis,
includingaglobalfinancialcrisis(2007-2008),anoilpriceshock(2014-2016),Ebola(2014-2016),theCOVID-19pandemic(2020-2021)andtheRussia-Ukrainewar(2022-present)(seeTable1).
Nationalcrises(endogenousshocks)
Ontopofthesecrises,Nigeriaalsoexperiencedvariouscrisesatthedomesticlevel,includingtheBokoHaraminsurgencyfrom2009onwards,whichhasledtolossesoflives,displacementofmillionsofpeopleandrelatedinsecurity;afarmers-herdersconflictwhichhasthreatenedfoodsecurityandresultedinlossesoflivesandproperties;naturaldisasterslikefloods;and
socialunrest(#EndSARSprotest)in2020whichresultedinadeclineingovernmentrevenue
7EnhancingMacroeconomicResllence:AComparativeAnalysisofNigeriaandChana
andconsumerconfidenceinfinancialmarkets,againstthebackdropofaworseningeconomy.!5Ghanaalsoexperienceddomesticcrises,suchasafinancialcrisisbetween2012and2015;an
electricitycrisisin2014;andanaturaldisaster(floods)in2015(seeTable2).
Thenationalcrisesnotedaboveimpactedbotheconomiesbyimpedingproductivityacross
sectorsandinterferingwitheconomicactivitybydisruptingsupplychains,destroying
infrastructureandinterruptingthelaboursupply,leadingtoadecreaseinoutputacrossmanysectors.Nationalcriseshavesignificantimpactsatthenational(andsometimesregional)level,buttheyarenotalwaysgivenasmuchattentionasglobalcrisesduetothelatter'sfar-reachingandcascadingimplicationsacrossmultiplecountries.
Table1GlobalandregionalcrisesaffectingtheNigerianandGhanaianeconomies,2000-2022
Year
Crisis
Proximatecauses
2007-2008
Globalfinancialcrisis
CollapseofhousefinancemarketintheUS,lowinterestrates,easycredit,inadequateregulations
2014-2016CommoditypriceshockDropinoilpricesfromsupplyglutintheglobalmarket
2014-2016
Ebola(regional)
Zoonotictransmission,human-to-humantransmissions,travel,migration
2020-2021COVID-19Declarationofpandemic,tradeandtravelrestrictions
2022-present
Russia-Ukrainewa
Supplychaindisruptions
Source:Authors'compilation
Table2NationalcrisesaffectingtheNigerianandGhanaianeconomies,
2000-2022
Year
Nigeria
Year
Ghana
1999-present
Farmers-herdersconflict
2014
Electricitycrisis
2009-present
BokoHaraminsurgency
2012-2015
Financialcrisis
2012,2022
Agriculturalshocks-floods,drought
2015
Floods
2020Socialunrest(#EndSARSprotest)
Source:Authors'compilation
15The#EndSARSprotestinNigeriain2020wasasocialmovementthatemergedtoadvocatethedisbandmentoftheSpecialAnti-RobberySquad(SARS),acontroversialunitoftheNigerianPoliceForce.SARShadfacednumerousallegationsofhumanrightsabuses,extortionandextrajudicialkillings.Theprotests,primarilyledbyNigerianyouth,gainedsignificanttractionbothnationallyandinternationally.Theprotestsstartedpeacefullybutlatertumedviolent,disruptingeconomicactivities,reducinggovernmentrevenueandaffectingconsumerconfidenceinfinancialmarkets.
ThesefactorsnegativelyimpactedNigeria'seconomicperformanceduringandaftertheprotests.
8
EnhancingMacroeconomicResilience:AComparativeAnalysisofNigeriaandGhana
ldentificationofcrisesinNigeriaandGhana
InNigeria,economicfluctuationsfrom2000to2022wereprimarilydrivenbythecountry's
heavyrelianceonoilexportsandexternalfactors.Thesurgeinglobaloilpricesin2002,drivenbyincreaseddemandandgeopoliticaltensions,providedawindfallforNigeria.However,thiswasfollowedbysignificanteconomicdownturnsin2016and2020(seeFigures4and5).The2014
commoditypriceshock,resultingfromadropinoilpricesfromthesupplyglutintheglobaloilmarket,ledtoarecessionin2016.AkeydriverofthisglutwastheshaleoilboomintheUSandtheOrganisationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment's(OPEC)productiondecisions,whichimpactedNigeria'seconomy.16
China'sshifttoamoreconsumption-driveneconomyalsoaffectedthedemandforcommodities,
includingoil,furtherharmingNigeria'seconomicstability."ThisshockwasfollowedbytheglobalupheavalsunleashedbytheCOVID-19pandemicleandsubsequentlytheRussia-Ukrainewar.!9
TheinvasionofUkrainedisruptedenergymarkets,initiallybenefitingNigeria.However,structuralchallenges(suchasdecliningoilproduction,alackofinvestment,infrastructureshortcomingsandvandalismofoilfacilities)andrelianceonimportshamperedthecountry'sabilityto
maximisegains,highlightingtheneedforeconomicdiversificationandreforms.20However,
Nigeriadisplayedresiliencebyexperiencingarobusteconomicreboundin2021(seeFigures4
and5).Thisrecoverywasattributedtoproactivepolicysupport,risingoilprices,international
financialassistance,effectiveCOVID-19-containmentmeasures,governmentreforms,theglobaleconomicrecovery,andprudentmonetaryandfiscalpolicies.
Ghanaexperiencedeconomicvolatilityduringthesameperiodduetoacombinationofinternalandexternalfactors.Thecountryexperiencedstronggrowthuntil2011,drivenbystabilityand
reforms(seeFigures6and7).Deceleration,however,occurredintheperiod2012-2014inthefaceoffiscalchallengesandexternalshocks,includingcommoditypricefluctuations.Forinstance,in2014,realGDPgrowthslowedto4%from7.3%in2013duetosupply-sideconstraints,including
16MareStocker,JohnBaffesandDanaVorisek,Whattriggeredtheoilpriceplungeof2014-2016andwhyitfailedtodeliveraneconomicimpetusineightcharts'(WorldBankBlogs,January18,2018),
/developmenttalk/what-triggered-oil-price-plunge-2014-2016-and
-
why-it-fniled-deliver-economic-impetuseishtchorts
17WorldBank,GlobalEconomicProspects:SpilloversamidWeakGrowth(WashingtonD.C.:WorldBankGroup,January2016),https://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/GEP/GEP2016a/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2016-Spillovers-amid-weak-growth.pdf.
18WorldBank,'NigeriaEconomicUpdate:ResiliencethroughReforms,'June2021,
/en/country/nigeria/publication/
nigeria-economic-update-resilience-through-reforms#:~:text=By%2Othe%20end%20of%202021,more%20slowly%20than%20the%20population.
19WorldBank,'RussianInvasionofUkraineImpedesPost-PandemicEconomicRecoveryinEmergingEuropeandCentralAsia,;'October4,2022,
/en/news/press-release/2022/10/04/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-impedes-post-pandemic-economic-recovery-in
-
emerging-europe-and-central-asia.
20InternationalMonetaryFund,'Nigeria:2022ArticleIVConsultation-PressRelease;StaffReport;andStatementbytheExecutiveDirectorForNigeria,'(IMFCountryReportno.23/93,February16,2023),
/en/Publications/CR/lssues/2023/02/16/Nigeria-2022-Article-IV
-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Statement-by-the-529842.
9EnhancingMacroeconomicResilience:AComparativeAnalysisofNigeriaandGhana
energy-supplychallenges,asharpdepreciationofthedomesticcurrencyandlowercommodityprices.21
UnlikeNigeria,Ghanaexhibitedmoreresiliencetoexogenousandendogenousshocks,andthecountryhasnotexperiencedarecessionsince2000.However,Ghana'sper-capitaGDPdeclinedin2015and2020butimmediatelyrebounded(seeFigures6and7)duetoprudenteconomic
policiesandrobustgovernance.Resilienceandstronggrowthreturnedduringtheperiod
2017-2019,buttheCOVID-19pandemicpromptedacontractionin2020.Overthetwodecades,Ghana'seconomicperformancewasinfluencedbyglobalcommodityprices,fiscalmanagement,exchangeratevolatility,governanceandinvestmenttrends,thusemphasisingtheimportanceofdiversificationandprudenteconomicpolicies.
Figure4RealGDPpercapitagrowthofNigeria,2000-2021
GLOBALNATIONALNATIONALGLOBALGLOBAL
NigeriaGDPpercapitarealgrowth(Constant2015S/LCU)
Source:WorldBank,WorldDevelopmentIndicators,2023,
/source/world-development-indicators
21BankofGhana,AnnualReport2014,
.gh/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/AnnRep-2014.pdf
.
10EnhancingMacroeconomicReslience:AComparativeAnalysisofNigeriaandChana
5(dollars)
Annualgrowth(%)
Figure5GDPpercapitaandrealGDPpercapitagrowthofNigeria,
2000-2021
GDPpercapita(constant20155)
GDPpercapitarealgrowth(Constant2015S/LCU)
Source:WorldBank,WorldDevelopmentIndicators,2023,
/source/world-development-indicators
Figure6RealGDPpercapitagrowthofGhana,2000-2021
GLOBAL
GLOBAL
NATIONAL
GDPpercapitarealgrowth(Constant2015S/LCU)
Source:WorldBank,WorldDevelopmentIndicators,2023,
/source/world-development-indicators
11EnhancingMacroeconomicResilience:AComparativeAnalysisofNigeriaandGhana
5(dollars)
Annudlgrowth(%)
GDPpercapitaandrealGDPpercapitagrowthofGhana,
2000-2021
Figure7
GhanaGDPpercapita(Constant2015$)
GhanaGDPpercapitarealgrowth(Constant2015S/LCU)
Source:WorldBank,WorldDevelopmentIndicators,2023,
/source/world-development-indicators
Globalfinancialcrisis(2007-2008)
The2007-2008globalfinancialcrisishadasignificantimpactonNigeriaduetoitsheavyrelianceoncrudeoilexportsandcapitalinflows.Thecrisisledtodecreaseddemandforoilexportsand
challengesinthebankingsector,despitesomereforms.Surprisingly,Nigeria'seconomyremainedresilient,withsteadyGDPpercapitagrowthattributedtotheimpressiveperformanceofits
non-oilsectors,likeagriculture,andprudentmacroeconomicpolicies.Nigeria'sGDPpercapitagrowthin2007,2008,2009and2010was3.7%,3.9%,5.1%and5.1%,respectively(seeFigure5).
Ghana'seconomyperformedwelldespitetheglobalfinancialcrisis.RealGDPgrowthrateswerepredictedtobe1.7%for2007and6.4%for2008,continuingthepositivegrowthtrajectoryfrompreviousyears.ThecrisisdidnothaveasignificantlynegativeimpactonGhana'seconomic
growthduetothecountry'slimitedintegrationintheworldmarketandrelianceonhighand
stablecommodityprices,especiallygold.Increasedcocoaandcoffeeproductionalsocontributedtopositivepricedevelopments,supportingexportearningsandforeignexchangereserves.
Moreover,Ghana'sexportcommoditypricesremainedrelativelystable.Domestically,the2008generalelectionsinfluencedbusinesssentimentandfiscalexpenditureasthegovernment
addressedvariouschallenges.
12
EnhancingMacroeconomicResilience:AComparativeAnalysisofNigeriaandGhana
Commoditypriceshock(2014-2016)
Overthepastdecade,Nigeria'seconomyhasremainedvulnerableduetoitsheavyrelianceon
crudeoil,despiteadeclineinthelatter'sshareofGDP.Oilexportsaccountedforover90%of
totalexportsand86%offoreignexchangeinflowsovertheperiod.2The2014-2016commoditypriceshockcausedasignificantdropinoilprices,impactingtheNigerianeconomyintheformofacurrencydepreciationandinflationarypressures.
Nigeriahadexperiencedadecadeofrobusteconomicgrowth,averaging6.8%annuallyuntil
2014,largelydrivenbyhighoilprices,strongconsumerdemandandagrowingservicessector.
However,economicgrowthdeclinedsignificantlyin2015andfurthercontractedin2016duetoaplummetingoilprice,whichreachedalowof$27perbarrelinFebruary2016from$115perbarrelinJune2014,aswellasattacksonoilinfrastructure,energyshortagesandforeignexchange
difficulties.?3Thenon-oilsectorwasnotrobustenoughtocompensatefortheoil-induced
recession.Inflationsurgedto17.1%inJuly2016,whichwasmainlyattributedtostructuraland
cost-pushfactors,lowindustrialactivity,highelectricitytariffsandacurrencydepreciation.24
Fiscalbalancesshiftedfromsurplusestodeficits,withthe2016budgetreflectingincreaseddebt-servicingcostsandfuelsubsidies.Exportrevenuesdroppedsharply,andthecurrentaccount
balanceturnednegative.Grossinternationalreservesalsodeclined,posingchallengesfortheNigerianeconomy.
TheGhanaianeconomyexperiencedadverseeffectsfromtheglobalcommoditypriceshock,
alongsidepersistentdomesticchallengeslikeenergysupplyconstraints.Ghana'sprimary
exportsofgold,cocoaandcrudeoilaccountfor80%ofexportrevenues,reflectingbetter
diversificationthanNigeria.?5Nonetheless,the2014commoditypriceshockalsohadsignificanteffectsonGhana'seconomyduetoitsheavyrelianceoncommodityexports.ThefallinexportrevenuesandgovernmentincomeputpressureontheGhanaiancurrency,thecedi,leadingtoitsdepreciationagainstmajorcurrencies.Thecedidepreciatedby31.2%againsttheUSdollarin2014andbyafurther16.1%in2015.Thisledtohigherimportcosts,contributingtohigher
inflation.?6Headlineinflationsteadilyrosetoendtheyearat17.7%,upfrom17.0%in2014.In2015,thegovernmentofGhanarecordedanoverallbudgetdeficitof6.7%ofGDPagainstatargetof7.0%ofGDP.
22UNComtradeDatabase,
/
.
23MartinSommer,AllanAuclair,ArmandFouejieu,InutuLukonga,SaadQuayyum,AmirSadeghi,GaziShbaikat,AndrewTiffinandBruno
Versailles,'LearningtoLivewithCheaperOll:PolicyAdjustmentinMENAandCCAOil-ExportingCountries'(IMFDepartmentalPapers,June8,2016),
/en/Publications/Departmental-Papers-Policy-Papers/lssues/2016/12/31/Learning-to-Live-with-Cheaper-Oil-Policy
-
Adjustment-in-MENA-and-CCA-Oil-Exporting-Countries-43934.
24TemitopeOshikoya,'Financinggovernmentprogrammesineconomicdownturn:Acomparativeanalysis,'EconomicandFinancialReview53,no.4(2015):5,
.ng/efr/vol53/iss4/5/
.
25Boatengetal.,Interconnectednessamongcommodities.'
26BankofGhana,AnnualReport2015,
.gh/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/AnnRep-2015.pdf
.
13
EnhancingMacroeconomicResilience:AComparativeAnalysisofNigeriaandGhana
Ebola(2014-2016)
TheEbolavirusdiseasewasintroducedtoNigeriabyaLiberiandiplomatwhovisitedNigeriainJuly2014.?7ThisprecipitatedthetakingofimmediatemeasuresbytheFederalMinistryofHealthandNigeriaCentreforDiseaseControl(NCDC),suchasquarantineandemergencydeclarations.?8Nigeriafacedinitialchallenges,suchasalackofpreparedne
溫馨提示
- 1. 本站所有資源如無特殊說明,都需要本地電腦安裝OFFICE2007和PDF閱讀器。圖紙軟件為CAD,CAXA,PROE,UG,SolidWorks等.壓縮文件請下載最新的WinRAR軟件解壓。
- 2. 本站的文檔不包含任何第三方提供的附件圖紙等,如果需要附件,請聯(lián)系上傳者。文件的所有權(quán)益歸上傳用戶所有。
- 3. 本站RAR壓縮包中若帶圖紙,網(wǎng)頁內(nèi)容里面會有圖紙預(yù)覽,若沒有圖紙預(yù)覽就沒有圖紙。
- 4. 未經(jīng)權(quán)益所有人同意不得將文件中的內(nèi)容挪作商業(yè)或盈利用途。
- 5. 人人文庫網(wǎng)僅提供信息存儲空間,僅對用戶上傳內(nèi)容的表現(xiàn)方式做保護處理,對用戶上傳分享的文檔內(nèi)容本身不做任何修改或編輯,并不能對任何下載內(nèi)容負責(zé)。
- 6. 下載文件中如有侵權(quán)或不適當(dāng)內(nèi)容,請與我們聯(lián)系,我們立即糾正。
- 7. 本站不保證下載資源的準確性、安全性和完整性, 同時也不承擔(dān)用戶因使用這些下載資源對自己和他人造成任何形式的傷害或損失。
最新文檔
- 2024年項目參與保密協(xié)議
- 2024無縫鋼管行業(yè)專利申請與保護協(xié)議2篇
- 2024招投標與合同管理:知識產(chǎn)權(quán)合同保護第一課3篇
- 2024年某高速路段建設(shè)引薦服務(wù)協(xié)議
- 2024年股權(quán)變更正規(guī)協(xié)議模板版B版
- 2024年設(shè)備租賃押金借款合同
- 2025餐飲業(yè)食品安全管理體系認證合同范本3篇
- 專業(yè)市場2024年度經(jīng)營管理承包合同書版B版
- 2024技術(shù)開發(fā)合作合同技術(shù)指標
- 2024食品公司信息安全保密合同
- 人教版五年級上冊四則混合運算300道及答案
- 服裝企業(yè)員工手冊模板范文
- 《低空航空器起降點基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施配置技術(shù)要求》(征求意見稿)
- 2024中輕度游戲全球市場趨勢洞察
- 中國兒童注意缺陷多動障礙ADHD防治指南專家講座
- 部編人教版數(shù)學(xué)二年級下冊課前預(yù)習(xí)單
- 解除勞動合同經(jīng)濟補償協(xié)議書
- 2024年4月自考02799獸醫(yī)臨床醫(yī)學(xué)試題
- 市政工程勞動力計劃
- 印度尼西亞發(fā)展熱帶經(jīng)濟作物的氣候條件評價-以爪哇和蘇門答臘島為例
- 吞咽障礙康復(fù)護理專家共識
評論
0/150
提交評論