全球零售發(fā)展指數(shù)

PhotobyAxelHeuting

Kearney,Dusseldorf

Expandingmarkets:

demographics,technologies,andregulationdriveretail

growthindevelopingnations

The2023GlobalRetailDevelopmentIndex?

KEARNEY

Executivesummary

Forretailers,thedecisiontoenteranewmarketor

expandorceaseoperationsinexistingmarketsisacrucialonethat—insomecases—canprovetobeanexistentialchoice.Success,ofcourse,canneverbeguaranteed,butwiththecommercialstakesashighastheyare,smartretailersneedobjectivedataandinformedinsightstosupporttheirmarketentry,exit,orexpansionstrategies.That’swhyKearneycreateditsbiennialGlobalRetailDevelopmentIndex(GRDI)in2002.

TheGRDIfocusesonthetop35to40emerging

economiesandevaluatestheirrelativeattractivenesstoretailersbasedonanin-depthexaminationof

economichealthandstability,governmentpolicy,

competitiveactivity,penetrationofmoderntrade,

consumerbehaviors,anddemographic,social,and

culturalconsiderations.Sincetheinceptionofthe

Index,thecountriesrankedontheGRDIhavetrackedcloselyasthetopdestinationsforretailers.This

shortlistingensuresthattheanalysisfocusesonthemostsuccessfulemergingmarketsoftoday,whichofferthehighestpotentialdowntheroad.

TheGRDI’s0–100-pointcountryrankingscale

operateswithinarelationalframework,comparingshortlistednationstoeachotherintermsofthe

urgencyforretailerstoestablishapresence.Alowerscoredoesnotimplyanunattractiveretailmarketbut

rathersuggeststhat,basedoncurrentdata,other

shortlistedmarketsmayofferretailersahigher

probabilityofsuccess.Whilelarger,morepopulousretailmarketssuchasIndiaandChinascorehighontheGRDI,smaller-populationnationswithpositive

demographicsandincreasingconsumerwealthanddisposableincomealsorankhigh.Forinternationalretailinvestorsthesenationsrepresenthiddenretailgemswaitingtobeminedandpolished.

Globalretailexpansioninvolvesaseriesofbalanced

choices.Eachmarketpresentsitsowndistinct

challengesandopportunitiesthatdemandatailoredstrategy.Successfulglobalretailplayersrequire

strategicallycuratingadiverseportfolioofcountriestoeffectivelybalancelong-termandshort-termgoals.

Thisyear’sGRDIshinesaspotlightontheMiddleEastandAfrica(MEA)asretailing’snextbigglobal“hot

spot.”Youth-drivenurbanpopulations,aprojected

doublingofdisposableincomeby2040,and

favorablegovernmentpoliciesarejustsomeofthe

factorsthatgiveMEAcountriessuchhighpotential

forretailsectorgrowth.Navigatingalandscape

markedbybothpositiveshifts(suchastheuptickin

femalelaborforceparticipationandgrowing

penetrationandadoptionofe-commerceplatforms)andchallenges(likeinflationarypressureand

long-heldrelationshipswithsmall,localmerchants),anewwaveofmodern,digitallyenabledretailplayershavecraftedsustainablestrategicresponsesand

forgedwinningvaluepropositionsbasedontheir

abilitytounderstand,respect,adaptto,andthriveinthefaceofdiversemarketforces.

Globally,theGRDIidentifiedsixkeytrendsthathad

themostsignificantimpactondevelopingnations:

Macroeconomicuncertainty.Thehopefor“new

normal”isnotallthatnormalandglobaleconomic

uncertaintyremainedhighacrosslargedeveloping

economies,whichweighedonGDPgrowthand

purchasingpower.

Inflationarypressureonconsumersisforcingthemtotradedown.Eventhoughluxuryandpremium

productshaveanestablishedconsumerbaseatthe

economictopofMEAnations,shoppersinthese

emergingmarketsincludingKSA,Egypt,andTürkiyeareincreasinglyoptingforlessexpensive,local,andprivatelabelitemsassubstitutesforpricierimportedandbrandedproducts.

Expandingmarkets:demographics,technologies,andregulationdriveretailgrowthindevelopingnations1

Theongoingjourneyofe-commercegrowth

continues.Globally,e-commerceisexpectedtogrow

attwicetherateofbrick-and-mortarretail,witha

CAGRofabout10to12percentuntil2027.In

emergingmarkets,mostofthisgrowthistheresultof

growingaccesstodigitalmarketplaces,which

continuetotakerootandrapidlychangeconsumer

behavior,especiallywhenthoseconsumersare

youngerandlivingincities.

Omnichannelcontinuestodefineretailers’strategy.

Whileomnichannelisconsideredtablestakesinmost

developedeconomies,inmanydevelopingnationsan

omnichannelapproachisstillinitsnascentorearly

evolutionarystage.Whilethat’strue,it’salsotruethat

store-basedretailersindevelopingmarketsare

continuingtoinvestinomnichannelcapabilities,

particularlyintermsoffulfillmentandcustomer

servicesincludingin-storepickup,curb-sidepickup,

andsoon.

Theincreasingriseine-paymentsandbuynow,pay

later(BNPL)options.Customersinemergingmarkets

aremovingquicklytonewpaymentoptions.

ShoppersintheAPACregionarerapidlyadopting

digitalwallets,whileMEAcustomershaveeagerly

embracedtheadoptionofBNPL.

RiseofretailAI.RetailersinMEAareincreasingly

turningtoemergingtechnologiestoleapfrog

traditionalmarketevolutioninordertocreateanew,

vibrantexperientialmarketingapproachdesignedto

attract,entertain,educate,andbetterservice

consumers.Theuseofartificialintelligence

(AI)-generatedvirtualavatarsandlivestreamingby

someofChina’slargestretailersareexamplesofthe

kindsofinnovationsbeingintroduced.

SincetheinceptionoftheIndex,the

countriesrankedontheGRDIhave

trackedclosely

asthetop

destinationsfor

retailers.

Expandingmarkets:demographics,technologies,andregulationdriveretailgrowthindevelopingnations2

Introduction:Aroundthe

emergingworldin40markets

AswehaveseeninpastGRDIs—fueledbyconsumer-

enablingtechnologies,enhancedfinancial

infrastructures,andgrowingconsumerpurchasing

power—ChinaandIndia’sretailmarketsremainhighly

appealingtoglobalinvestorsandoperators.Atthe

sametime,severalothergeographicregionshave

experiencedasignificantsurgeintheirrankings.

InLatinAmerica,economiessuchasBrazil,Mexico,

andtheDominicanRepublichaveseenanotable

uptickintheirstandingssinceourlastGRDI,astheir

economiesstronglyreboundduetorobust

macroeconomicstimulusresultinginsubstantial

growthwithintheirretailsectors.

TheCentralAsianclusterincludingcountriessuchas

AzerbaijanandKazakhstanhasdemonstratedstrong

performance.Whileitsoverallmacroeconomic

conditionshavecontributedtothegrowthofitsretail

sector,Azerbaijanstandsoutbecauseofits

particularlylowretailsaturation,presentingan

interestingopportunityforoperators.

Thisyear’seditionofKearney’sGRDIdemonstrates

whytheMiddleEastandAfrica(MEA)—includingwhat

sometermthe“extendedMiddleEast”—hasemerged

asglobalretailing’snextbig“hotspot,”reflecting

significantchangesfortheregion’sretailersandtheir

customers(seefigureonpage4).

TheMiddleEast

andAfrica(MEA)hasemergedasglobalretailing’snextbighotspot.

Expandingmarkets:demographics,technologies,andregulationdriveretailgrowthindevelopingnations3

India

DominicanRepublic

SaudiArabia

China

Azerbaijan

Egypt

Kazakhstan

Malaysia

Türkiye

Indonesia

Paraguay

Jordan

Bangladesh

Romania

Brazil

Senegal

Morocco

Mexico

Colombia

Kenya

Serbia

Bulgaria

Guatemala

Peru

Ghana

Iran

C?ted'Ivoire

Tanzania

Algeria

Honduras

Ethiopia

Pakistan

Uganda

Vietnam

Nepal

Tunisia

Cameroon

Bolivia

Nigeria

Ecuador

Philippines

Cambodia

Angola

Thailand

66.4

65.0

62.7

59.8

55.6

55.3

55.0

54.1

53.6

52.9

52.3

52.0

51.7

51.4

51.3

50.1

50.1

50.0

48.8

48.7

48.4

48.0

47.7

46.5

46.5

46.2

45.4

45.4

45.0

44.7

44.5

44.3

43.9

43.8

43.1

42.9

42.9

42.5

42.0

41.8

41.1

40.2

35.8

35.1

1179

42

249

3763

26

303

62

122

227

447

19

23

260

111

621

15

56

498

121

68

25

27

60

74

20

85

35

41

58

18

65

211

24

153

29

21

23

20

239

46

203

13

39

157

1 8 9-315 1 6–512–619 5–8 823 2–1122 94

–10–3

2

3 –17New –11NewNew 11New 5New–25 –4 –7 –5 –15 –5 –1 –6New 0–8

1,417

11

37

1,437

10

104

19

33

85

276

7

11

171

19

215

18

37

128

49

54

7

7

18

33

34

89

28

66

45

10

123

236

47

99

31

12

28

12

219

18

116

17

36

67

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

Figure

2023GlobalRetailDevelopmentIndexrankings

Final

score

Ranking

Change

Market

attractiv-

eness

Country

Market

Time

risk

saturation

pressure

54.1

55.9

100.0

85.6

57.8

62.5

100.0

26.7

60.3

81.1

4.4

52.0

55.4

77.3

43.7

19.4

67.6

72.3

64.2

56.3

49.1

72.5

17.1

64.7

44.6

28.1

86.8

37.4

36.1

82.3

79.1

77.6

31.9

82.7

60.1

36.4

11.0

92.6

67.9

92.3

2.6

72.6

26.5

21.5

61.0

69.1

86.9

59.7

92.6

60.2

47.2

48.9

0.0

64.6

82.5

37.4

46.4

55.8

77.8

68.5

86.1

18.4

55.3

60.4

13.6

55.0

44.6

55.3

51.7

66.8

40.9

56.1

67.9

86.6

44.4

7.7

91.3

41.6

42.5

67.9

74.7

47.6

95.3

55.1

14.6

87.0

36.4

72.2

60.4

55.2

23.4

100.0

53.8

15.8

83.7

43.2

22.2

94.7

66.6

47.9

34.2

76.9

11.4

95.1

59.1

18.0

70.4

35.9

32.9

93.1

46.4

12.4

79.4

37.6

8.0

85.0

33.2

62.8

36.6

39.9

52.2

19.5

78.1

0.0

79.8

70.0

22.8

78.8

27.3

49.4

0.5

57.1

Retailsales

(USDbn)

(PR)

Countrylistused

GDPPPP

percapita2022(IMF)

9,073

25,896

64,836

23,382

18,669

16,979

32,688

36,847

41,412

15,855

15,578

12,893

8,663

41,634

18,686

4,515

10,460

23,820

19,460

6,569

25,432

32,006

10,546

16,132

6,974

19,548

7,011

3,600

13,507

7,228

3,724

6,836

3,224

14,458

5,101

13,270

4,665

10,327

6,178

13,513

11,420

6,092

7,222

22,675

Population

2022(mn)

(PRB)

60.5

66.5

81.7

100.0

45.4

46.7

54.7

72.0

58.3

54.7

36.8

46.0

23.2

67.3

75.0

13.0

33.3

80.5

50.1

15.2

58.1

67.1

40.8

40.9

12.0

24.2

14.7

2.7

25.4

20.8

3.6

22.3

0.0

33.4

4.0

32.1

5.9

24.7

22.6

41.5

36.0

5.6

11.1

46.4

DeepdiveofselectedcountriesinGRDIreport

Source:Kearneyanalysis

Expandingmarkets:demographics,technologies,andregulationdriveretailgrowthindevelopingnations4

MiddleEast:Thenextglobal

retailhotspot

Anexpanding,younger,urban,andprogressivelymoreaffluentpopulationinmanyMEAnationsissustainingfast-pacedretailgrowthtodayandfortheforeseeablefuture.Projectionsindicatethattotaldisposable

incomeinMEAnationswilldoubleby2040.1CountriesinMEAthatfindaplaceinGRDI2023(KSA,Egypt,

Türkiye,Jordan,Senegal,Morocco,Kenya,Ghana,Iran,C?ted’Ivoire,Tanzania,Algeria,Ethiopia,Uganda,

Tunisia,Cameroon,Nigeria,andAngola)accountforabout14percentoftheworldpopulationand7.4

percentoftheworldGDP.Partoftheirgrowthwillbeunderpinnedbyasignificantriseinthefemalelaborforceparticipationrate(FLFP),especiallyinthe

KingdomofSaudiArabia(KSA)whereFLFPreached

about37percentin2022,upfromabout26percentin2019–2020.MEAretailersseetheseyoungerandmore

urbanshoppersaskeytofuturegrowthandaretailoringtheiroffersaccordingly.

Atthesametime,MEA’songoinginflationary

environmenthasforcedmajorretailerstooffer

competitivediscounts,prices,andothervalue-basedoffers.Thisprice-sensitivestrategymanifestsitselfinmanyforms,includingthegrowthofdiscountretail

andtheexplosiveexpansionofprivatelabelprograms,rewardpointapps,andshopperloyaltyprograms.

Onthedigitalsideoftheretailequation—fueledbyquickcommerce(q-commerce)socialcommerce,

hyperlocaldeliveryservices,digitalizationofsmall

traditionalretailers,andotherinnovativeconcepts—e-commercecontinuesitssteadygrowthin

developingeconomies.Majorretailersinmany

emergingeconomiesaremakingshoppingmore

convenientbyinvestinginomnichannelcapabilities,

includingoptionssuchasclick-and-collectandpartneringwithdigitalplatformstoincrease

logisticalefficiency.

Intermsofmobilecommerce,smartphoneadoptionisforecastedtogrowto87percentinsub-Saharan

Africaby2030,upfrom51percentin2022.Africa

accountsfor70percentoftheworld’s$1trillion

mobilemarketvalueandisalreadyaleaderinmobilemoneytransactions,withthenumberofsub-Saharanmobilemoneyaccountssurpassingbankaccounts.

GroceryretailinghaswitnessedrapidandscaleddigitizationasbothMEA’straditionalandmoderngroceryretailersembracenewfront-endand

back-endtechnologies,anddigitalmarketplaces.Digitalbusiness-to-business(eB2B)providers,

especiallyplatformoperatorsandpayment

merchants,arehelpingtraditionalretailersmanageinventoryande-paymentservices.Combined,thesehigh-techinnovationsandconsumertrendshelp

AsianandMiddleEasteconomiesdominatetheemergingretaillandscape.

Drivenbyastrongfocusonnon-oileconomyandtheestablishmentofafavorablebusinessandregulatoryenvironment,KSAjumpedninepointsinthisyear’s

ranking,risingtothethirdspot,reflectingboth

increasedconsumeraffluenceandtheimpactsof

inflation.TheKingdom’sretailsectorisbeingsuper-

chargedbyagrowingyoungdemographic,afocus

onexperientialretail,andexpansioninbothvalueandluxuryretailsegments.

Despitebattlingcurrencydevaluationandinflation,

EgyptandTürkiyeholdtheGRDI’ssixthandninth

positionsrespectively.Bothnations’retailsector

continuestorise,drivenbyayounger,moreurban

demographiccohortaswefindinmanyemerging

economies,apreferenceforvalueshopping,andtheincreasingpenetrationofmalls.

Aidedbyimprovementsinpaymentsystemsandincreasinginvestment,Egyptiane-commerceis

expectedtoexpanddespitearelativelylowrateof

onlineshopping.E-commerceisthrivinginTürkiye,its

growthlargelyfueledbyq-commerce,digital

marketplaces,andanincreasingconsumer

preferenceforconvenientshoppingoptionsandfasterdelivery.

LookingacrosstheAfricancontinent,weseethe

anchoreconomiesofMorocco,Kenya,Ethiopia,andSenegalcontinuetoshowhighretailpotential.Lowretailsaturationisthe“redthread”runningthroughmostofAfrica’sdevelopingeconomies,signalingan

opportunityforretailerstoenter,orexpand

operationsin,thesemarkets.

1MEAnationsrepresentAlgeria,Angola,Bahrain,Cameroon,C?ted’Ivoire,Egypt,Ethiopia,Ghana,Iran,Iraq,Israel,Jordan,Kenya,Kuwait,

Lebanon,Morocco,Nigeria,Oman,Qatar,SaudiArabia,SouthAfrica,Tanzania,Tunisia,Uganda,andUnitedArabEmirates,perEuromonitorclassification.Türkiyeisalsoincluded.

Expandingmarkets:demographics,technologies,andregulationdriveretailgrowthindevelopingnations5

Keytrends:Whatmakestheretailworldgoround?

Fromaglobalperspective,sixkeytrendshave

emergedsinceourlastGRDIreport.Whilesome

aspectsofretailing—suchasdigitalpaymentsande-commerce—haveshownsignificantgrowthandimprovementoverthepost-pandemicperiod,otherexternalfactorssuchasinflationarypressureshave

grownworse,leadingtowidespreadglobal

macroeconomicuncertainty.

Macroeconomicuncertainty:thehopefor“newnormal”isnotallthatnormal

Ingeneral,globaleconomicrecoveryhasbeen

gradual,decliningfrom3.5percentin2022to3.0

percentin2023andfurtherto2.9percentin2024.Therateofdeclineindevelopingcountriesismoremoderate,withprojectionssuggestingdevelopingeconomieswilldeclinefrom4.1percentin2022to4percentinboth2023and2024.Asaresult,global

economicuncertaintyremainedhighacrossmany

economiesanddirectlyandindirectlyimpactedGDPgrowthandconsumerpurchasingpowerandbehavior.

Drivenbyaseriesofdisparategeopoliticaleventssuchasescalatingtensionsaswellasongoing

climatedisruptionssuchas2023’sdrought(whichloweredwaterlevelsinthePanamaCanal,forcing

shipstoaddanadditionalsixtransitdays),theglobalmacroeconomicenvironmentremainedturbulent

andunstable.

Supplychainscontinuedtobedisturbedby

economic,political,andcurrencyvolatility,fueling

highinflation.Developingcountriesremainhighly

leveraged,owingalmost30percentofthetotal

globaldebt—70percentofwhichisowedbyChina,

India,andBrazil—forcingmanycountriestousemoreoftheirpublicrevenuesforinterestpaymentsratherthaninvestinginareassuchashealthandeducation.

Inflationpressuresonconsumers:tradingdownbecomesubiquitous

Globalinflation,whichremainedhighin2022and

2023,isshowingsometentativesignsofslowing

down.WhileAsianeconomieswereabletotakemorecontroloninflationarypressures,nationssuchas

Türkiye,Egypt,Nigeria,Pakistan,andothers

witnessedexceptionallyhighinflationratesandcurrencydevaluation.Asaresult,consumersin

emergingmarketsareincreasinglyoptingforless

expensive,local,andprivatelabelitemsassubstitutesforpricier,imported,andbrandedproducts.

E-commerce:ongoinggrowthcontinuestoshrinkthedigitaldivide

Globally,e-commerceisprojectedtobethefastestgrowingretailchannel,inpositiontoaccountfor

approximately24percentofretailsalesby2027,upfromaround21percentin2023.Globale-commerceisprojectedtogrowattwicetherateofbrick-and-

mortarretail,withaCAGRofabout11to12percentperyear.Mostofthisshareiscapturedby

marketplacessuchasAmazon,eBay,Etsy,AliExpress,Rakuten,Lazada,Taobao,Walmart,MercadoLibre,

andothers.

Retaile-commerceisalsoprojectedtoshowastrongincreaseinsales,addinganabsolutevalueof$1.4

trillionfrom2022to2027.Morethan64percentof

thisopportunityisexpectedtocomefromemergingmarkets.AsiaPacific(APAC)nationsareexpectedtoleadthedigitalchargewithrapidgrowthanticipatedinChina,Indonesia,Malaysia,Vietnam,Thailand,

andIndia.

Cross-bordere-commerceissettodeclineasmore

localandhybridactorsentere-commercemarketsindevelopingnationsandsomedevelopingnationslookatwaystoregulatetheinflowofinternationalgoods

inanattempttobalanceconsumerchoice,product

safety,andstimulatinglocalanddomesticretailers.InKSAalone,cross-bordere-commerceisontrackto

declineby10percentagepointsto49percentby2026.Atthesametime,digitalservicessuchas

q-commerce—whichoffers10-to30-minutedeliverywindows—socialcommercewithlivestreaming,

influencer-basedmarketing,andothernewserviceoptionscontinuetogaintraction.

Expandingmarkets:demographics,technologies,andregulationdriveretailgrowthindevelopingnations6

Omnichannel:theroadmapthatdefinesretailstrategy

Thisyear’sGRDIfoundstore-basedretailers

increasinglyinvestingindevelopingomnichannel

capabilitiesasconsumersincreasinglyshoponlineorsomecombinationofphysicalanddigitalretailing,

reflectingagrowingpreferenceforconvenience,competitivepricing,andtheabilitytoeasilyreviewandcapturenewtrends.

InIndiaandChina,60to70percentofsalesin

selectedcategoriesaredigitallyinfluenced.By2021almosthalfofChineseconsumershadalready

purchasedproductsthroughlivestreaming.India’sRelianceRetailisexpandingitsomnichannel

capabilities(about18percentofcurrentsales)whileotherIndianplayerssuchasTataandAmazonare

enhancingtheiromnichannelofferings.

InChina,Krogerhasadoptedanewomnichannel

strategymodelthatlinksphysicalshopping,online

ordering,andlogisticsusingautomatedfulfillment

centers,same-daydeliverylogistics,customertrendanalytics,andotheromnichannelessentials.Brazilianmulti-departmentretailgiantMagazineLuizahasanaggressivedigitalstrategyandhasdevelopeda

strongomnichannelofferingthroughaone-stopshop“superapp.”

Riseofe-paymentsandBNPLoptions:openingthedigitalwallet

Globally,digitalwalletscontinuetobeapreferredandconvenientpaymentoption.Useofdigitalwalletsis

expectedtorisefromabout49percentto54percentofe-commercetransactionswithagrowthCAGRof

about12percentuntil2026.Chinaisattheforefront

ofdigitalwalletadoptioninAPACwithother

developingcountriesrapidlyfollowingsuit.

BNPLremainspopularamongconsumersin

emergingmarkets,representing5percentof2022

globale-commercespend,thankstoembedded

offeringsbylargee-commerceplatforms(including

Alibaba,JD,andFlipkart),aswellassuperapps.BNPLisMEA’sfastestgrowingdigitalpaymentmethod,

projectedtogrowat43percentCAGRthrough2026.BNPLinKSAaccountedforonly1percentoftransactionvaluein2022butisprojectedtogrowat68percentCAGRthrough2026.

Risinguseofinnovationinretail

Retailersareusinginnovationtoprovideconsumersimmersivein-storeexperiences,personalization,andtheenhancedconvenienceofshoppingonline.

In2022,SnapInc.openeditsSnapARRamadanMall,anaugmentedreality-basedvirtualmall.In2023,thevirtualmallattractedanestimated12millionshoppersduringRamadan,a33percentyear-over-year

increaseinvisitors.Snapchatalsopartneredwith

AlshayaGrouptouseaugmentedreality(AR)tobringBath&BodyWorksandAmericanEaglestorestotheircustomersduringRamadan.Chineseretailersare

integratingChatGPT-likeartificialintelligencewith

livestreamingtogeneratevirtualhumanavatarsthatinteractwithconsumers.

InJuly2023,JD.comreleaseditsChatRhino(orYanxiinChinese),alargelanguagemodel(LLM)designedtoservevariousindustriesthatcombines70percentgeneralizeddatawith30percentnativeintelligent

supplychaindataandhasbeenutilizedin

livestreamingsessionsformorethan4,000brands.Tencentlaunchedaproductthatcanbuildavirtual

avatarbasedonathree-minutevideoofauserand

100spokensentences.ItsZenVideoplatformallowsanyonetocreatesimplepromotionalvideosfeaturingavirtualhumanspokesperson.Baiduusedlastyear’sSinglesDaytolaunchHuiboxing,itsfirst,scaled

livestreamingproduct,onYouxuan,itse-commerceplatform.BetweenOctober20andNovember11lastyear,Baidusaid“virtualhumans”ranabout17,000

streams.Baiduannouncedthatelectronicsgiant

Suningsawvirtualhumanlivestreamingcontribute

morethan3millionyuan($420,000)ingross

merchandisevalue(GMV)—whichmeasuressalesovertime—onasingleday.

Expandingmarkets:demographics,technologies,andregulationdriveretailgrowthindevelopingnations7

Honorablementions:

othernotablemarkets

Poweredbyavibrantretailsectordrivenbyhighincomes,increasedconsumerspending,rising

urbanization,andanincreasinguseofdigitalizationinretailandsupportedbyfinancialinclusioninitiativesincludinginstrumentssuchasBNPL,India,oneoftheworld’sfastest-growingeconomies,capturedthe

number-onepositioninthisyear’sGRDI.

Chinasecuredthefourthposition,thanksinlargeparttoitshighlydigitizedretailmarket.Thenation’sretaillandscapeisinfluencedbyconceptssuchas

experientialretail,socialcommerce,retail

technologies,traditionalretailmodernization,andomnichannelretail.

Movingbeyondthetop10wefindBangladesh,whichsecuredthe13thpositionandstandsoutasoneof

thefastest-growingeconomiesinAsia.Whilethe

retailmarketispredominantlyinformal,moderntradeisgainingtraction.Bangladesh’sretailsectoris

benefittingfromfactorssuchasahighGDPpercapita,increasedaccesstoconsumercredit,and

theemergenceofanascent,yetgrowing,

e-commercemarket.

In15thposition,Brazil’sretailgrowthispropelledbya

combinationofomnichannelretailing,the

modernizationoftraditionalstores,andtheincreasingpopularityofwarehouseclubsandconveniencestore

formats.Brazil’se-commercesectorisalso

expanding,supportedbyinvestmentsfrommajor

players,governmentinitiativesinICTinfrastructure,

risingInternetpenetration,andthegrowing

popularityofdigitalpayments.

Mexicoclimbedtothenumber18slot.Theimpactofinflationhasdriventhegrowthofprivatelabeland

discountformatsasMexicanconsumersshowan

increasingpreferenceforloyaltyprogramsandpricepromotions.Thenation’sretailsectorisfurtherfueledbyomnichannelretailstrategies,theexpansionof

e-commerceintonewproductcategories,andadiverserangeofdigitalpaymentmethods,

includingBNPL.

Overcomingmacroeconomicchallenges,andwitha

retailsectorpoisedforgrowthdrivenbyan

expandingpopulationandagrowingmiddleclass,Pakistanascendedtothe32ndposition.Strategiesincludingofferingvalueandsmall-sizedpacks,

promotionaloffers,anddiscountsareanticipatedtofurtherboosttheretailsector,whichalsobenefits

fromagrowingpresenceofe-commerceandthedigitalizationoftraditionalstores.

Facingchallengesfrominflationandmacroeconomicheadwinds,Nigeriaholdsthe39thposition.The

embattledretailsectorisbeingunderpinnedbya

largepopulation,ongoingretaildigitalinitiativessuchasrewardappsandomnichannelretailstrategies,aswellassignificantgrowthine-commerceanddigital

payments.Thestrongexpansionofsupermarketformatsfurthercontributestoamorepositive

retaildynamic.

Retailersareusinginnovationto

provideconsumers

immersivein-store

experiences,

personalization,

andtheenhanced

convenienceof

shoppingonline.

Expandingmarkets:demographics,technologies,andregulationdriveretailgrowthindevelopingnations8

Lookingatemergingnationsoneeconomyatatime

India:Stillontracktobecometheworld’sthirdlargesteconomy

IndiacontinuestobeoneofthefastestgrowingeconomiesonEarth.Forecastspredictthatinthenextfouryears(FY2027–2028)itwillovertake

GermanyandJapanandbecometheworld’sthird

largesteconomy.Today,fueledbyalargeworking

population—morethan50percentofthenation’s

populationisworking—whoenjoyhigherdisposableincomesandshareawillingnesstospendthem,Indiaremainsthethirdlargestglobalretailmarket.While

GDPisforecasttogrowby6.3percentthanksto

increasedconsumption,infrastructureinvestment,

increasingbusinessactivity,andthefactthatoveralleconomicoutlookremainspositive,therearesomeseriousconcernsthatgeopoliticaltensions,inflation,andfluctuationsintheworldeconomymayslow

India’sgrowth.

Viewedfromoneperspective,Indiaisadynamicallyexpandingmodernmarketwithagrowingappetiteforinternationalbrandsandpremiumproducts,

especiallyinurbanareasandselecttier1and2

markets.But,lookedatthroughanotherlens,thecountry—especiallyintermsofgrocery