2024年中國房地產(chǎn)展望報告-戴德梁行

年月??????介紹???????01150,000120,00090,00060,00030,000035%30%25%20%15%10%5%20%16%12%8%0%-5%-10%-15%4%0%房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資（億元）房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資同比增幅202440210.5010.009.509.008.508.007.507.00353025201510502023F2024F2025F2026F2027F2028F2029F2030F新能源儲能

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新增裝機量

（GW）綠色甲級寫字樓非綠色甲級寫字樓2024503百萬平方米2024680%60%40%20%0%202567%543212026A.是B.否40.74%53%2027未來供應占存量比例35%30%50.00%22%11%9%8%C.不知道9.26%00%10%20%30%40%50%60%深圳廣州成都武漢上海臺北香港北京202460420%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%20247055040302010012%10%8%10,0008,0006,0004,0002,000050%40%30%20%10%0%6%4%2%0%201820192020202120222016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022F

2023F

2024F

2025F預制菜市場規(guī)模（億元）

比上年增長

(%)工業(yè)增加值（萬億元）比上年增長

(%)NCBD2024806人民幣

億元人民幣

億元5,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005004,0003,0002,0001,000016%29%25%28%24%23%13%02017上海2018北京2019深圳2020廣州20212022Q1-Q32023201720182019202020212022Q1-Q32023其他城市香港臺北內(nèi)資境外20249user--??––??––sabrina.d.wei@零售物業(yè)寫字樓存量13,638,81014,797,0052,944,70617.4%（平方米）空置率90603001601208040018.7%297.95.0%10.3%2,250.05.6%租金（元/平方米/月）60.3資本化率4.9%2020202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027F2020202120222023F2024F2025F2026F202410??––??––8060402006.5%5.5%4.5%3.5%2020

2021

2022

2023F

2024F

2025F2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

202311??––??––shaun.fv.brodie@零售物業(yè)寫字樓存量16,423,19822,974,92510,476,00015.1%（平方米）萬平方米300空置率9.6%20021.8%239.5150100502001000租金（元/平方米/月）1,873.349.3核心4.5%新興4.8%核心4.5%新興4.8%資本化率4.8%020202021202220232024F2025F2026F2027F20202021202220232024F2025F2026F202412??–??–––1205.5%5.0%4.5%4.0%3.5%9060300202020212022

2023F

2024F2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Q32023202413????xiaoduan.zhang@零售物業(yè)寫字樓存量（平方米）8,089,1756,599,4121,702,48518090空置率26.06%186.454.8%8.95%802.954.8%1.33%51.165.0%12060060300租金（元/平方米/月）資本化率20202021202220232024F2025F2026F20202021202220232024F2025F2026F202414??––??––90603005%5%4%4%3%甲級寫字樓零售物業(yè)20212022

2023F

2024F

2025F

2026F2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Q32023202415??––??––xiaoduan.zhang@寫字樓零售物業(yè)存量（平方米）6,494,944

5,660,086

3,524,3621208040080空置率18.68%149.714.5%7.23%710.284.4%2.47%42.495.0%6040200租金（元/平方米/月）資本化率2020

2021

2022

2023

2024F

2025F

2026F2020

2021

2022

2023

2024F

2025F

2026F

2027F202416??––??––萬平方米5.0%4.5%4.0%3.5%20015010050020202024202120222023F2024F2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Q3202317??––??––ivy.jia@，寫字樓3,116,07622.36%103.425%-6%零售物業(yè)7,987,9236.5%存量5,790,8055.3%（平方米）40806040200空置率3020100租金（元/平方米/月）617.7327.33資本化率4%-5%5%-7%2020

2021

2022

2023

2024F

2025F

2026F2020

2021

2022

2023

2024F

2025F

2026F202418??––??––15012090603002020

2021

2022

2023

2024F

2025F

2026F202419??––??––xiaoduan.zhang@物流高標庫寫字樓零售物業(yè)存量（平方米）3,007,2674,053,3994,583,832403020100120空置率35.9%94.813.8%463.95.2%21.9%25.880400租金（元/平方米/月）資本化率6.0%5.8%2020202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2020202120222023F2024F2025F2026F202420????–––12090603002020202120222023F2024F202421??–??–rosanna.tang@–零售物業(yè)寫字樓*存量(平方呎)68,312,500N/A35,250,900空置率18.0%48.28.2%616.02.8%7.5%14.82,0001,5001,000500543210銅鑼灣中環(huán)尖沙咀租金(港幣/平方呎/月)4.0旺角2.9資本化率1.82.5%***3.2%1.20.80.20.10201920202021202220231H2024F202120222023F2024F2025F2026F2027F202422????–––3.2%2.8%2.4%2.0%甲級寫字樓

(整體)甲級寫字樓

(中環(huán))零售預測543210202120222023F2024F2025F2019202020212022Q32023202423????––eason.ih.lee@物流寫字樓788,3306.1%零售物業(yè)N/A高標庫存量1,007,580N/A（坪）25%中山南京西門忠孝520%15%10%5%432