曼昆《經(jīng)濟學(xué)原理第三版》宏觀分冊原版中英文雙語Chap25省公開課一等獎全國示范課微課金獎?wù)n件

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THEREALECONOMYINTHELONGRUN長久中實際經(jīng)濟1/76ProductionandGrowth

生產(chǎn)與增加Chapter252/76ProductionandGrowth

生產(chǎn)與增加Acountry’sstandardoflivingdependsonitsabilitytoproducegoodsandservices.一國生活水平?jīng)Q定于它生產(chǎn)物品與勞務(wù)能力。3/76ProductionandGrowth

生產(chǎn)與增加Withinacountrytherearelargechangesinthestandardoflivingovertime.即使在一個國家內(nèi)，生活水平也伴隨時間推移而發(fā)生了巨大改變。4/76ProductionandGrowth

生產(chǎn)與增加IntheUnitedStatesoverthepastcentury,averageincomeasmeasuredbyrealGDPperpersonhasgrownbyabout2percentperyear.在美國過去一個世紀里，按人均實際GDP衡量平均收入每年增加2％左右。5/76ProductionandGrowthProductivityreferstotheamountofgoodsandservicesproducedforeachhourofaworker’stime.Anation’sstandardoflivingisdeterminedbytheproductivityofitsworkers.6/76生產(chǎn)與增加生產(chǎn)率是指一個工人一小時生產(chǎn)物品與勞務(wù)量。一國生活水平?jīng)Q定于它工人生產(chǎn)率。7/76Table1TheVarietyofGrowthExperiencesCopyright?South-Western8/76表1.不一樣增加經(jīng)歷Copyright?South-Western國別時期期初人均GDP期末人均GDP增加率（每年）

日本1890～1256美元26460美元2.81％巴西1900～65073202.45墨西哥1900～96888102.23加拿大1870～1984273302.04德國1870～1825250102.03中國1900～59839401.90阿根廷1900～1915120901.86

美國1870～3347342601.81印度1900～56423901.45印度尼西亞1900～74328401.35英國1870～4107235501.35巴基斯坦1900～61619601.16孟加拉國1900~52016521.169/76EconomicGrowthAroundtheWorld

世界各國經(jīng)濟增加Livingstandards,asmeasuredbyrealGDPperperson,varysignificantlyamongnations.人均實際GDP數(shù)據(jù)表明各國生活水平差異很大。10/76EconomicGrowthAroundtheWorld

世界各國經(jīng)濟增加ThepoorestcountrieshaveaveragelevelsofincomethathavenotbeenseenintheUnitedStatesformanydecades.最窮國家平均收入水平是美國幾十年來所沒有看到。11/76EconomicGrowthAroundtheWorldAnnualgrowthratesthatseemsmallbecomelargewhencompoundedformanyyears.Compoundingreferstotheaccumulationofagrowthrateoveraperiodoftime.12/76世界各國經(jīng)濟增加看起來很小增加率在許多年復(fù)利計算之后變得很大。復(fù)利計算是指在一個時期內(nèi)增加率累積。13/76CompoundingandtheRuleof70

復(fù)利計算與70規(guī)則魔力Accordingtotheruleof70,ifsomevariablegrowsatarateofxpercentperyear,thenthatvariabledoublesinapproximately70/xyears.依據(jù)70規(guī)則，假如某個變量每年按x%增加，那么在快要70/x年以后該變量翻一番。14/76AnExampleoftheRuleof70$5,000investedat7percentinterestperyear,willdoubleinsizein10years

70/7=1015/7670規(guī)則一個例子每年利率為7％5000美元投資在后價值翻一番。70/7=1016/76PRODUCTIVITY:ITSROLEANDDETERMINANTS

生產(chǎn)率:作用及決定原因Productivityplaysakeyroleindetermininglivingstandardsforallnationsintheworld.

生產(chǎn)率在決定世界上全部國家生活水平方面起著關(guān)鍵作用。17/76WhyProductivityIsSoImportant

為何生產(chǎn)率如此主要Productivityreferstothequantityofgoodsandservicesthataworkercanproducefromeachhourofwork.生產(chǎn)率是指一個工人一小時內(nèi)所生產(chǎn)物品與勞務(wù)量。18/76WhyProductivityIsSoImportant

為何生產(chǎn)率如此主要Tounderstandthelargedifferencesinlivingstandardsacrosscountries.Wemustfocusontheproductionofgoodsandservices.為了了解各國生活水平巨大差異，我們必須集中在物品與勞務(wù)生產(chǎn)上。19/76HowProductivityIsDetermined

生產(chǎn)率是怎樣決定Theinputsusedtoproducegoodsandservicesarecalledthefactorsofproduction.

用于生產(chǎn)物品與勞務(wù)投入被稱為生產(chǎn)要素Thefactorsofproductiondirectlydetermineproductivity.

生產(chǎn)要素直接決定了生產(chǎn)率。20/76HowProductivityIsDetermined

生產(chǎn)率是怎樣決定TheFactorsofProduction

生產(chǎn)要素Physicalcapital物質(zhì)資本Humancapital人力資本Naturalresources自然資源Technologicalknowledge技術(shù)知識21/76HowProductivityIsDeterminedPhysicalCapitalisaproducedfactorofproduction.Itisaninputintotheproductionprocessthatinthepastwasanoutputfromtheproductionprocess.isthestockofequipmentandstructuresthatareusedtoproducegoodsandservices.Toolsusedtobuildorrepairautomobiles.Toolsusedtobuildfurniture.Officebuildings,schools,etc.22/76生產(chǎn)率是怎樣決定物質(zhì)資本是生產(chǎn)出來生產(chǎn)要素。它是生產(chǎn)過程投入，也是過去生產(chǎn)過程產(chǎn)出。是用于生產(chǎn)物品與勞務(wù)設(shè)備與建筑物存量。用于生產(chǎn)或修理汽車工具。用于生產(chǎn)家俱工具。辦公樓，學(xué)校等等…23/76HowProductivityIsDeterminedHumanCapitaltheeconomist’stermfortheknowledgeandskillsthatworkersacquirethrougheducation,training,andexperienceLikephysicalcapital,humancapitalraisesanation’sabilitytoproducegoodsandservices.24/76生產(chǎn)率是怎樣決定人力資本經(jīng)濟學(xué)家用來指工人經(jīng)過教育、培訓(xùn)和經(jīng)驗而取得知識和技能一個術(shù)語。

和物質(zhì)資本一樣，人力資本提升一個國家生產(chǎn)物品與勞務(wù)能力。25/76HowProductivityIsDeterminedNaturalResourcesinputsusedinproductionthatareprovidedbynature,suchasland,rivers,andmineraldeposits.Renewableresourcesincludetreesandforests.Nonrenewableresourcesincludepetroleumandcoal.canbeimportantbutarenotnecessaryforaneconomytobehighlyproductiveinproducinggoodsandservices.26/76生產(chǎn)率是怎樣決定自然資源由自然界提供用于生產(chǎn)物品與勞務(wù)投入，如土地、河流和礦藏?？稍偕Y源包含樹木和森林。不可再生資源包含石油和煤炭?？赡苁侵饕?，但它們并不是一個經(jīng)濟體生產(chǎn)物品與勞務(wù)中生產(chǎn)率高必要條件。27/76HowProductivityIsDeterminedTechnologicalKnowledgesociety’sunderstandingofthebestwaystoproducegoodsandservices.Humancapital

referstotheresourcesexpendedtransmittingthisunderstandingtothelaborforce.28/76生產(chǎn)率是怎樣決定技術(shù)知識社會對生產(chǎn)物品與勞務(wù)最好方法了解。

人力資本是指把這些了解傳遞給勞動力資源消耗。29/76TheProductionFunction生產(chǎn)函數(shù)Economistsoftenuseaproductionfunctiontodescribetherelationshipbetweenthequantityofinputsusedinproductionandthequantityofoutputfromproduction.經(jīng)濟學(xué)家經(jīng)慣用生產(chǎn)函數(shù)來描述用于生產(chǎn)投入量和生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)出量之間關(guān)系。30/76TheProductionFunctionY=AF(L,K,H,N)

Y

=quantityofoutput

A=availableproductiontechnology

L

=quantityoflabor

K

=quantityofphysicalcapital

H=quantityofhumancapital

N=quantityofnaturalresources

F()

isafunctionthatshowshowthe inputsarecombined.

31/76生產(chǎn)函數(shù)Y=AF(L,K,H,N)

Y

=產(chǎn)出量

A=可得到生產(chǎn)技術(shù)

L

=勞動量

K

=物質(zhì)資本量

H=人力資本量

N=自然資源量

F()

是一個表示投入怎樣結(jié)合起來以生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)出函數(shù)。32/76TheProductionFunction生產(chǎn)函數(shù)Aproductionfunctionhasconstantreturnstoscaleif,foranypositivenumberx,

假如給定任何一個正數(shù)x，下式成立，則該生產(chǎn)函數(shù)規(guī)模收益不變。xY=AF(xL,xK,xH,xN)Thatis,adoublingofallinputscausestheamountofoutputtodoubleaswell.

這就是說，投入翻倍就會使產(chǎn)出翻倍。33/76TheProductionFunctionProductionfunctionswithconstantreturnstoscalehaveaninterestingimplication.Setting

x=1/L,Y/

L=AF(1,K/

L,H/

L,N/

L)

Where:

Y/L=outputperworker

K/L=physicalcapitalperworker

H/L=humancapitalperworker

N/L=naturalresourcesperworker34/76生產(chǎn)函數(shù)規(guī)模收益不變生產(chǎn)函數(shù)有一個令人感興趣含義。設(shè)

x=1/L,Y/

L=AF(1,K/

L,H/

L,N/

L)

這里:

Y/L=每個工人產(chǎn)量

K/L=每個工人物質(zhì)資本

H/L=每個工人人力資本

N/L=每個工人自然資源35/76TheProductionFunctionTheprecedingequationsaysthatproductivity(Y/L)dependsonphysicalcapitalperworker(K/L),humancapitalperworker(H/L),andnaturalresourcesperworker(N/L),aswellasthestateoftechnology,(A).36/76生產(chǎn)函數(shù)這個公式說明，生產(chǎn)率(Y/L)取決于每個工人物質(zhì)資本

(K/L)，每個工人人力資本(H/L)，每個工人自然資源，(N/L)，以及技術(shù)情況

(A).37/76EconomicGrowthandPublicPolicy

經(jīng)濟增加與公共政策Governmentscandomanythingstoraiseproductivityandlivingstandards.政府能夠做很多事情來提升生產(chǎn)率和生活水平。38/76ECONOMICGROWTHANDPUBLICPOLICY

GovernmentPoliciesThatRaiseProductivityandLivingStandardsEncouragesavingandinvestment.EncourageinvestmentfromabroadEncourageeducationandtraining.Establishsecurepropertyrightsandmaintainpoliticalstability.Promotefreetrade.Promoteresearchanddevelopment.39/76經(jīng)濟增加與公共政策提升生產(chǎn)率和生活水平政府政策勉勵儲蓄和投資勉勵來自國外投資勉勵教育和培訓(xùn)建立完善產(chǎn)權(quán)保護機制和政治穩(wěn)定促進自由貿(mào)易促進研究與開發(fā)40/76TheImportanceofSavingandInvestment

儲蓄與投資主要性O(shè)newaytoraisefutureproductivityistoinvestmorecurrentresourcesintheproductionofcapital.提升未來生產(chǎn)率一個方法就是把更多現(xiàn)期資源投資于資本生產(chǎn)。41/76Figure1GrowthandInvestment(a)

Growth

Rate

1960–1991(b)

Investment

1960–1991SouthKoreaSingaporeJapanIsraelCanadaBrazilWestGermanyMexicoUnitedKingdomNigeriaUnitedStatesIndiaBangladeshChileRwandaSouthKoreaSingaporeJapanIsraelCanadaBrazilWestGermanyMexicoUnitedKingdomNigeriaUnitedStatesIndiaBangladeshChileRwandaInvestment(percentofGDP)GrowthRate(percent)0123456701020304042/76(a)1960-1991增加率(b)1960-1991投資韓國新加坡日本以色列加拿大巴西西德墨西哥英國尼日利亞美國印度孟加拉國智利盧旺達增加率(百分比)01234567SouthKoreaSingaporeJapanIsraelCanadaBrazilWestGermanyMexicoUnitedKingdomNigeriaUnitedStatesIndiaBangladeshChileRwanda投資(GDP％)010203040圖1.增加與投資43/76DiminishingReturnsandtheCatch-UpEffectAsthestockofcapitalrises,theextraoutputproducedfromanadditionalunitofcapitalfalls;thispropertyiscalleddiminishingreturns.Becauseofdiminishingreturns,anincreaseinthesavingrateleadstohighergrowthonlyforawhile.44/76收益遞減與追趕效應(yīng)伴隨資本存量增加，從增加一個單位資本中生產(chǎn)額外產(chǎn)量降低。這種特征被稱為收益遞減。因為收益遞減，儲蓄率增加所引發(fā)更高增加只是暫時。45/76DiminishingReturnsandtheCatch-UpEffect

收益遞減與追趕效應(yīng)Inthelongrun,thehighersavingrateleadstoahigherlevelofproductivityandincome,butnottohighergrowthintheseareas.在長久中，高儲蓄率引發(fā)高水平生產(chǎn)率和收入，但在這些變量中并沒有高增加。46/76DiminishingReturnsandtheCatch-UpEffect

收益遞減與追趕效應(yīng)Thecatch-upeffectreferstotheconditionthat,otherthingsbeingequal,itiseasierforacountrytogrowfastifitstartsoutrelativelypoor.追趕效應(yīng)是指在其它條件相同情況下，假如一國開始時較窮，它要快速增加是輕易。47/76InvestmentfromAbroad

來自國外投資Governmentscanincreasecapitalaccumulationandlong-termeconomicgrowthbyencouraginginvestmentfromforeignsources.政府能夠經(jīng)過勉勵來自國外投資來增加資本積累和長久經(jīng)濟增加。48/76InvestmentfromAbroadInvestmentfromabroadtakesseveralforms:ForeignDirectInvestmentCapitalinvestmentownedandoperatedbyaforeignentity.ForeignPortfolioInvestmentInvestmentsfinancedwithforeignmoneybutoperatedbydomesticresidents.49/76來自國外投資來自國外投資采取幾個形式：外國直接投資由外國實體擁有并經(jīng)營資本投資。外國有價證券投資用外國貨幣籌資，但由國內(nèi)居民經(jīng)營投資。50/76EducationForacountry’slong-rungrowth,educationisatleastasimportantasinvestmentinphysicalcapital.IntheUnitedStates,eachyearofschoolingraisesaperson’swageonaveragebyabout10percent.Thus,onewaythegovernmentcanenhancethestandardoflivingistoprovideschoolsandencouragethepopulationtotakeadvantageofthem.51/76教育教育對一個國家長久經(jīng)濟成功最少與物質(zhì)資本投資一樣主要。在美國，每一年正規(guī)教育使人平均收入增加10％左右。所以，政府能夠提升生活水平一個方法是提供良好學(xué)校，并勉勵人們利用這些學(xué)校。52/76Education教育Aneducatedpersonmightgeneratenewideasabouthowbesttoproducegoodsandservices,whichinturn,mightentersociety’spoolofknowledgeandprovideanexternalbenefittoothers.一個受過教育人會產(chǎn)生一些相關(guān)怎樣最好地生產(chǎn)物品與勞務(wù)新思想，這些新思想進入社會知識寶庫，并給他人帶來外部效益。53/76Education教育Oneproblemfacingsomepoorcountriesisthebraindrain--theemigrationofmanyofthemosthighlyeducatedworkerstorichcountries.一些貧窮國家面臨一個問題是人才外流——許多受過最高教育工人移民到富國。54/76PropertyRightsandPoliticalStabilityPropertyrightsrefertotheabilityofpeopletoexerciseauthorityovertheresourcestheyown.Aneconomy-widerespectforproperty rightsisanimportantprerequisiteforthe pricesystemtowork.Itisnecessaryforinvestorstofeelthat theirinvestmentsaresecure.55/76產(chǎn)權(quán)和政治穩(wěn)定產(chǎn)權(quán)是指人們對其擁有資源行使權(quán)力能力。價格制度發(fā)生作用一個主要前提是經(jīng)濟中廣泛尊重產(chǎn)權(quán)。讓投資者感到他們投資安全是必要。56/76FreeTradeTradeis,insomeways,atypeoftechnology.Acountrythateliminatestraderestrictionswillexperiencethesamekindofeconomicgrowththatwouldoccurafteramajortechnologicaladvance.57/76自由貿(mào)易在一些方面，貿(mào)易是一個技術(shù)。取消了貿(mào)易限制國家將有重大技術(shù)進步以后出現(xiàn)同類經(jīng)濟增加。58/76FreeTradeSomecountriesengagein...

...inward-orientatedtradepolicies,avoidinginteractionwithothercountries. ...outward-orientatedtradepolicies,encouraginginteractionwithothercountries.59/76自由貿(mào)易一些國家實施...

...內(nèi)向型貿(mào)易政策,防止與世界其它國家相互交易。

...外向型貿(mào)易政策，勉勵與其它國家相互交易。60/76ResearchandDevelopmentTheadvanceoftechnologicalknowledgehasledtohigherstandardsofliving.Mosttechnologicaladvancecomesfromprivateresearchbyfirmsandindividualinventors.Governmentcanencouragethedevelopmentofnewtechnologiesthroughresearchgrants,taxbreaks,andthepatentsystem.61/76研究與開發(fā)技術(shù)知識進步帶來更高生活水平。大多數(shù)技術(shù)進步來自企業(yè)和個人所進行私人研究。政府經(jīng)過補助、減稅和專利制度來勉勵新技術(shù)開發(fā)。62/76CASESTUDY:TheProductivitySlowdownandSpeedupFrom1959to1973productivitygrewatarateof3.2percentperyear.From1973to1995productivitygrewbyonly1.5percentperyear.Productivityacceleratedagainin1995,growingby2.6percentperyearonaverageduringthenextsixyears.63/76案例研究:生產(chǎn)率增加放慢與加緊從1959年到1973年，生產(chǎn)率每年增加3.2％。從1973到1995年，生產(chǎn)率每年增加只有1.5％。從1995年開始，生產(chǎn)率增加又加緊了，在隨即6年里平均每年增加2.6％。64/76CASESTUDY:TheProductivitySlowdownandSpeedupThecausesofthechangesinproductivitygrowthareelusive.Theslowdowncannotbetracedtothefactorsofproductionthataremosteasilymeasured.Manyeconomistsattributetheslowdownandspeedupineconomicgrowthtochangesintechnologyandthecreationofnewideas.65/76案例研究:生產(chǎn)率增加放慢與加緊生產(chǎn)率增加改變原因是捉摸不定。這種生產(chǎn)率放慢不能追溯到那些最輕易衡量生產(chǎn)要素。許多經(jīng)濟學(xué)家把經(jīng)濟增加快慢歸因于技術(shù)變革和新思想創(chuàng)造。66/76Figure2TheGrowthinRealGDPPerPersonGrowthRate(percentperyear)1.01.52.02.53.03.54.01870–18901890–19101910–19301930