電動(dòng)汽車充電細(xì)分（英）-2024-06-新能源

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PitchBookData,Inc.JohnGabbertFounder,CEO

NizarTarhuniVicePresident,InstitutionalResearchandEditorial

PaulCondraHeadofEmergingTechnologyResearch

InstitutionalResearchGroupAnalysis

JonathanGeurkink

SeniorAnalyst,EmergingTechnology

jonathan.geurkink@

Data

MattNacionales

SeniorDataAnalyst

pbinstitutionalresearch@

Publishing

DesignedbyJennaO’MalleyPublishedonMay28,2024

Contents

Keytakeaways1

Introduction2

EVchargingsegmentation2

Real-worldexamples—lookingdown5

theroad

Governmentsteppingin7

EMERGINGTECHRESEARCH

EVChargingSegmentation

Fine-tuningtheviewasEVchargingexpands

PitchBookisaMorningstarcompanyprovidingthemostcomprehensive,most

accurate,andhard-to-finddataforprofessionalsdoingbusinessintheprivatemarkets.

Keytakeaways

?EVadoptionremainsconstrainedinmanycountriesbyalackofadequatecharginginfrastructure.

?ThisnoteprovidesfurthersegmentationoftheEVchargingcategoryintopublic,nonpublic,residential,andmix.

?DriversappearrelativelyinsensitivetopayinghigherpricesperKwHforpublic

fastchargingoptions—convenienceandlocationseemtodrivedecision-making.

?Dynamicpricingrepresentsapotentialmeanstomanagecongestionatpublicchargingstations.

?Residentialchargingislikelytoremainthedominantmodeofcharging.Bidirectionalchargingcouldbesettotakeoffinkeygeographies.

?Countrieswithhigherratesofadoptionprovidesuggestionsforothersseekingtobolsterthemarket,butsomegotwheretheyarefromuniqueresourceadvantages.

?Rangeanxietymaybeoverblownasanimpedimenttobroaderadoption.Educationandmarketingshouldbeabletoassuagedrivers’concerns.

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PitchBookAnalystNote:EVChargingSegmentation

Introduction

Mainstreamadoptionofelectricvehicles(EVs)facessomethingofachicken-

and-eggproblemregardingEVcharging.MostEVadopterswillchargeathome—

approximately80%ofchargingtoday—but,besetbyrangeanxiety,mostdrivers

wanttoknowtheycanchargewhenoutandaboutwithoutgettingstuckwithadeadbatterysomewhereontheroad.ThisremainsakeystickingpointforpotentialEV

customers.However,widespreadinvestmentintoEVchargingremainsconstraineduntilthebroadermarketforEVsexpands;lowlevelsofutilizationmeanlimited,ifany,returnsoncapital.

Todate,PitchBookhassegmentedEVchargingasasinglecategorywithinthe

broaderelectricvehiclesegmentinmarketmapsandcoverage.ButtheEVcharginglandscapeisnotmonolithic.ThisnoteprovidesafurthersegmentationoftheEV

charginglandscapeandadeeperdiveintoeachofthosecategories.Additionally,

anumberofcountriesarefurtheralongtheEVadoptioncurve,anditisusefulto

examinetheirreal-worlddriverexperienceswithEVcharging.Finally,thisnotelooksatgovernmentregulationandpolicythatattempttosolvethechicken-and-egg

problemoftheEVchargingrollout.

EVchargingsegmentation

EVchargingmarketmap

EVcharging

Mix

EvatranGroup

Nonpublic

evconnect

uplight

ANDERSEN

ROCSVS

Public

ELECTRA

Allego

ampLe

Residential

wallbox-

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PitchBookAnalystNote:EVChargingSegmentation

Sofar,driversappearwillingtopaymultiplesofthe

kilowatt-hourratestheypayathomeforfastcharging

onthego.

TheEVchargingsegmentsincludepublic,nonpublic,residential,andmix,asdetailedbelow.

Public

Thepublicchargingsegmentreferstochargingsystemsavailabletothegeneral

public—withsomeconstraints,giventhatchargerconnectionstandardscanvarybyautomanufacturer.Here,akeyconstraintistimetocharge.Driversareaccustomedtothegasstationexperiencewheretheycanfillupandbebackontheroadina

fewminutes.Stretchingoutthisintervalismorethanjustjarringtodrivers’typicalhabits;afixednumberofchargingportsperstationandlongerchargetimes

resultinlonglinesanddelays.Additionally,coldweatheranddriversdetermined

tofilltocapacity—chargingratesdropoffsignificantlyinthefinal20%toprotect

batteries—cancompoundthetimetochargefurther.DCfastchargingiskeyto

reducingchargetimesatchargingstationsandisthefastestgrowingcategory

today.Onereportshowscapitalexpenditureperkilowatt(kW)dropsdramaticallywithLevel3fastcharging.1Aschargingratesincrease,however,stationsface

constraintsfromutilitiesregardingavailablepowerandconnectionsabletosupportthatthroughput.On-sitestoragebatteriescanhelpbufferandbalanceloadtimes

butaddtooverallcapitalcostsofastation.Dynamicpricing—dependingontimeofday,vehiclestateofcharge,andpossibleotherfactorssuchastheweather—

couldhelptoshapedriverbehaviorandmoreeffectivelymanagechargetimes.Sofar,driversappearwillingtopaymultiplesofthekilowatt-hour(kWh)ratesthey

payathomeforfastchargingonthego.Stationownershavenotfullytestedthe

upperlimitofthiselasticityorexperiencedtheimpactofpricecompetitionwhencharginginfrastructureisfullybuiltout.Drivers’sensitivitytopriceisevolvingasthemarketgrows.Chargingappsreducesearchcostsandlikelysteerorspurpricecompetition.Brandingtodistinguishquality,convenience,renewablepower,andspeedrepresentsapotentialfordifferentiationintheearlydaysofthisrollout,

wheredriverexperienceswithbrokenorinoperablechargershaveexceeded25%insomegeographies,andchargingappsleadthemtodangerous,undesirable,

orpoorlylitchargingsites.2Providingprimelocations,maintenance,andqualityservice,however,comesatacost.Sofar,asdetailedinthe

Q32023EVCharging

AnalystNote

,TeslaistheclearleaderonthisfrontintheUS.

Nonpublic

Nonpublicsystemsincludefleetchargingforcommercialoperations,businesses

offeringchargingconnectionsforemployees,aswellaschargingsystemsfor

apartmentbuildingsandmultifamilystructures.FleetsofEVsfordeliveryandothercommercialoperationsaretypicallygoingtobechargedintheyardorparking

areaofthecompanyrunningthem.Similartoresidentialsystems,vehiclescan

chargeovernightorduringnonoperatinghours.Rangeandhoursofoperation

arelikelytobemorefinelytunedforcommercialfleets,however,withtelematics

systemsmonitoringstateofchargeandroutestoensurecompliancewithdeliveryoroperatingschedulesandotherkeybusinessmetrics.Timetochargeisnotas

importantasforpublicchargingstations,butmaintenance,uptime,andconsistency

1:“ElectricVehiclesandtheChargingInfrastructure:ANewMindset?”PwC,n.d.,accessedMay21,2024.

2:“86%ofEVDriversCanChargeatHome,butOverHalfStillRelyonPublicChargers,ChargelabSurveyFinds,”PRNewswire,ChargeLab,

February29,2024.

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PitchBookAnalystNote:EVChargingSegmentation

ThewidespreadimpactofresidentialEVchargingonthegridcanbesignificant.

arecriticalmeasures,asthesevehiclestypicallysupportcarefullymeasured

businessactivities.Theservicingopportunityforfleetchargingmanagementis

likelyconsiderablegivenmanybusinesseswouldratheroutsourcethanmanage

thecomplexityofthisoperation.Parkinggaragesofofficeandapartmentbuildingscanbewiredtoofferchargingfortenants.Companiescanofferperkstoemployeestokeeptheirvehicles’batteriestoppedupduringtheday.Similartofleets,rateof

chargeisalesserconsideration,givenvehicleswilllikelybepluggedinalldayor

night.Level2chargersareadequateforthetask.ManagingthenumberofportsinabuildingisaconsiderationasEVadoptiongrows,butportscanalsoeasilybeaddedadhocastheratioofEVsincreases.PricingperkWhislikelytoapproximatetypicalutilityrates,sovalue-addfornonpublicsystemsmostlyderivesfromequipment

sales,maintenance,andservice.

Residential

ResidentialreferstohomechargingsystemstypicallyprovidedbyEVautomakersorutilities.ThisislikelytoremainthedominantmeansofEVcharging.Today,

between70%and80%ofchargingoccursathome.DependingonthesizeofthebatteryintheEVanddailydrivinghabits,homeownerscanoptforaLevel1chargerthatcaneasilyplugintoa120voltoutlet,orafasterLevel2charger,whichcan

requiremoreextensive(andcostly)wiringandapotentialelectricpanelupgradetoaccommodatehigherwattage.3Thereareanumberoffederal,state,and

utilityincentivesandsubsidiestooffsetthecostofinstallingchargingequipment

athome.4ThewidespreadimpactofresidentialEVchargingonthegridcanbe

significant.InSeptember2022,CaliforniaaskedEVownersnottochargeduring

peakhoursduringaheatwavebecauseofstresstotheelectricalgrid.5IntheSeattlearea,PugetSoundEnergyisofferingcustomerswhoownEVsandenrollinitsFlex

program$100upfrontand$0.50foreverykWhofelectricitysaved.Theprogram

automaticallylimitschargingthroughonboardtelematicsorLevel2chargers

duringpeakpowerepisodes.Bidirectionalchargingisalsoincreasinglyanoption

forresidentialEVowners,providingelectricityduringpoweroutages,storagefor

renewableenergysystems,andevenbolsteringoverallgridresilience.6InCalifornia,legislationrequiringbidirectionalchargingforallEVssoldinthestateisworking

itswaythroughthestatecapitol.7Residentialchargingisexpectedtoremainthe

dominantmodeforEVcharging.TheUSDepartmentofEnergyestimatesthatby

2030therewillbe33millionEVsontheroadintheUSand28millionchargingports,ofwhich26.8millionwillbeprivatechargingports.8

3:“ABigEVPurchaseDecisionThat’sNotAbouttheCarModelYouBuy,”CNBC,CherylWinokurMunk,September29,2023.

4:“ChargingElectricVehiclesatHome,”USDepartmentofEnergy,n.d.,accessedMay21,2024.

5:“AmidHeatWave,CaliforniaAsksElectricVehicleOwnerstoLimitCharging,TheNewYorkTimes,LiviaAlbeck-Ripka,September1,2022.

6:“BidirectionalChargingandElectricVehiclesforMobileStorage,”USDepartmentofEnergy,OfficeofFederalEnergyManagementProgram,n.d.,

accessedMay21,2024.

7:“BidirectionalChargingandEVs:HowDoesItWorkandWhichCarsHaveIt?”CNET,DanAvery,September4,2023.

8:“ElectricVehicleChargingInfrastructureTrendsFromtheAlternativeFuelingStationLocator:ThirdQuarter2023,”NationalRenewableEnergy

Laboratory,AbbyBrown,etal.,February2024.

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PitchBookAnalystNote:EVChargingSegmentation

InMarch2024,salesof

plug-inEVsachieved91.5%marketshare,upfromanaverageof83%in2023.

Mix

ThiscategoryreflectschargingservicesorequipmentvendorswithofferingsthatmeaningfullystraddleorencompassmultiplesubsegmentsacrosstheEVcharginglandscape.Overtime,companiesfocusedononesegmentofthemarketmay

choosetoexpandtoothersegmentsorblendhardwareandserviceaspectsoftheirofferings.

Real-worldexamples—lookingdowntheroad

AstheUSandothercountriesgrapplewiththechallengesofbuildingoutEVcharginginfrastructure,itisusefultolookatacoupleofeconomieswhereEVadoptionismuchhigherforcluestohowdrivershaveadapted.

EvidencefromNorway,whereEVadoptionisamongthehighestintheworld,

suggestsdriversarewillingtopayasignificantpremiumforpubliccharging

resources.InMarch2024,salesofplug-inEVsachieved91.5%marketshare,up

fromanaverageof83%in2023.9Bycomparison,intheUS,EVsaccountedfor7.6%ofnewcarsalesin2023,andinChina,thefigurewas24%.10Thecostforon-the-

gocharginginNorwayis3xto4xthatofchargingathome.11McKinseyseespublicEVchargingremainingprofitable,drivenbythelimitedavailabilityofattractive

charginglocationsinNorwayandaroundtheworld.InNorway,McKinseyexpectson-the-gochargingtoaccountfor21%ofpowerdemandbutcapture45%ofEVchargingEBITDA.

TherearealotofoptionsforpubliccharginginNorway,butonecommonconcernisthatcustomersdonotlikemaintainingmultiplemobileapps.Glitchesremain,

eveninNorway.A2022annualsurveyfromtheNorwegianEVAssociationrevealedfullyhalfofrespondentsstatedfastchargersdonotworkallofthetime.Norwayisarelativelysmallpassengercarmarket,withjustunder127,000carssoldin2023.12Thecountryisalsounique—andreadyforelectrification—withnearly100%of

electricitycomingfromabundanthydropower.In2023,thecountryhad23,800chargingstationstosupportthe817,500EVsandplug-inhybridcarsregistered.13

TheNetherlandshasalsoseensomeofthehighestEVadoptionratesinEurope.

TheDutchAssociationofEVDriversconductsanannualdrivingsurvey,andit

offerssomeusefulinsights.14Theassociationsurveyednearly3,000EVdriversin

theNetherlandsin2023.Onaverage,DutchEVdriverslogged18,845kilometers

(km)peryear(about12,000miles).Itmaybetheresultofasamplingissue,butEVdriversloggednearlydoubletheaverageofatypicalprivatecar(10,000km).Real-worldexamplessuggestrangeanxietymaybeoverblown.Thesurveyshowsthat

despitethegreater-than-averagelevelsofdriving,anEVbatteryisusuallysufficient

9:“NorwegianEVMarketSurgesto91.5%MarketShare,SettingaSustainableExample,”EuropeanCommission,April7,2024.

10:“WhattheU.S.CanLearnFromNorwayWhenItComestoEVAdoption,”CNBC,JeniecePettitt,February17,2024.

11:

“WhatNorway’sExperienceRevealsAbouttheEVChargingMarket,”McKinsey&Company,MártonBékés,etal.,May8,2023.

12:“NumberofPassengerCarsSoldinNorwayFrom2010to2023,”Statista,MathildeCarlier,March21,2024.

13:“NumberofPublicChargingStationsforElectricVehiclesinNorwayFrom2011to2022,byType,”Statista,MathildeCarlier,September12,2023.

14:“NationaalLaadonderzoek2023,”RijksdienstvoorOndernemendNederland,BrittWolterman,etal.,September7,2023.

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64%supportedusingbidirectionalchargingandEVstobalancethegridsolongasthey

arecompensated.

PitchBookAnalystNote:EVChargingSegmentation

fordailydistances,and40%ofrespondentsneverneedtorechargewhileonthe

road.85%ofdriversdonotneedtorechargeontheroadmorethantwotimesa

month.Whentheydousepublicchargers,EVdrivershaveonaveragetwoorthreechargingappsandcards.94%ofdriverspaywithachargingcardwhenusingpublicchargers,andonly4%useanappforpayments.

Satisfactionwiththechargingexperienceisgenerallyhigh.Privatechargingathomewasratedhighestat9.1outof10.Publicchargingnearhomefellto7.2,whilepublicchargingabroadwasratedjust6.7.Thefastchargingexperienceisimproving,with32%havingbottlenecksin2023,downfrom62%in2021,andthebiggestissue

beingbrokenordefectivechargingstations.Forthosechargingathome,34%hadtheirutilityserviceorwiringexpandedtoinstallthehomechargingstation,and

55%hadsmartchargingthatcouldvaryovertime.Bidirectionalchargingispopular,with62%ofuserswantingtouseitandfully50%ofEVdriverssupportingmakingitmandatory.

Interestingly,77%ofsurveyrespondentshavesolarpanelsontheirhomes—solar

installationshavesurgedintheNetherlandsinrecentyearsastheRussia-Ukraine

warincreasedthevolatilityofelectricityprices—andsupportforbidirectional

chargingstemslargelyfromadesiretousetheEVtostoreandmanagepower

fromthesolarpanelsforboththevehicleandthehome.64%supportedusing

bidirectionalchargingandEVstobalancethegridsolongastheyarecompensated.GiventheincreasedoccurrenceofnegativeenergypricesinthewakeofthesurgeofsolarinstallationsacrossEuroperecently,theneedforbidirectionalchargingandEVstoragetobalanceelectricitygridsandpricesappearstobeloominglarger.15

Pricesensitivityamongsurveyrespondentsisfairlylow.Despitehigherelectricitycostsoverallrecently,72%saidtheydidnotusetheirEVanydifferently,while

only19%saidtheynowseekoutlowestchargingcosts.Moreover,whenasked

aboutfactorsinchoosingachargingcard,65%emphasizedthewidestcoverageofchargingstations,whileonly19%lookedforthecheapestrates.68%respondedtoknowingthepriceofpubliccharging“onlysometimes”to“never.”

AlthoughanumberofcountriesmayhavehigherEVadoptionrates,inabsolute

numbers,Chinaisdominant.Confrontingthechicken-and-eggproblemoutlined

above,Chinasimplysaid“yes”andhasbarreledaheadwithaggressiveEVchargerdeployment.For2023,thecountrywasexpectedtodeploytwiceasmanychargersastherestoftheworldcombined.16Attheendof2022,thecountry’stwolargest

publicchargingoperatorswererunningatutilizationof5%to8%,levelsgenerally

believedtorequiresubsidiestoremainviable.Areportfromearly2023speculatedthattheaveragechargingpostisusedaboutonceperday.17Aseparatereportshowsaveragechargingutilizationacross32Chinesecitiesat11%in2023,rangingfromahighof17.4%inXiamentoalowof4.1%inShenzhen.18Theurbancoresofseveral

15:“EuropeanElectricityPricesTumbleIntoNegativeTerritoryAmidGlutofGreenEnergy,”BusinessInsider,FilipDeMott,July18,2023.

16:“There’sNoSuchThingasTooManyElectric-CarChargersinChina,”Bloomberg,RyanFisher,June20,2023.

17:“OIESChinaProgramme:AnUpdateonChina’sEVRevolution,”TheOxfordInstituteforEnergyStudies,AndersHove,February20,2023.

18:“ChargingUpChina’sTransitiontoElectricVehicles,”TheInternationalCouncilonCleanTransportation,HongyangCui,etal.,January2024.

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Chinesecities,however,

enjoyedutilizationratesashighasthoseinAmsterdam,atabout35%.

PitchBookAnalystNote:EVChargingSegmentation

Chinesecities,however,enjoyedutilizationratesashighasthoseinAmsterdam,atabout35%.Thedisparityinutilizationratesislikelyaresultoftherapidbuild-out

ofinfrastructureandshouldmoderateovertime.Chinesehighwaysremainaweaklinkinthenationwideinfrastructure.In2022,publicchargerdensitywas105per

thousandkmonhighwaysincontrastto654forNorwayand135inCalifornia.Urbancoresappeartobewellcovered,anddeploymentalonghighwaysandinsuburbanandruralareasislikelytoaccelerateoverthenearterm.Chineseoilcompanies

facingexpectedpeakgasolinedemandinChinain2025arestartingtobuildoutchargingnetworks.19WesternoilmajorsincludingShellandTotalarebuildingoutchargingstationsinChinaaswell.VariedandchangingutilizationratesinChinamakesitingandscalingEVchargingnetworksachallenge.

Governmentsteppingin

WheremarketsfaceeconomicchallengesbuildingoutEVcharginginfrastructure—suchasthechicken-and-eggproblemmentionedabove—governmentshave

steppedintostimulateandsteertheeffortwithsubsidiesandincentives.The

2023

EVCharginganalystnote

detailsUSgovernmenteffortsandincentives,sothisnotewillemphasizeanothercountry’sefforts.NorwayhashadconsiderablesuccesswithEVadoption,butitalsostartedearlyandprovidedsignificantincentives.Asearlyas1990,NorwayslashedregistrationfeesforEVsto0%;in1996,thecountryoffered

freetollstoEVdrivers;andin1999,itofferedfreeparking.Themostsignificantincentivecamein2001whenthecountrycutvalue-addedtaxratestozerofor

EVpurchases.Avalue-addedtaxrateof25%isappliedtoallotherunsubsidized

purchasesinthecountry.In2003,thecountryallowedbuslaneaccessforEVs.

Still,adoptionratesremainedrelativelylow,largelybecausebatterytechnology

couldnotprovidesufficientrange.Inthepast10years,however,sinceTeslastartedmassproduction,adoptioninNorwayhasclimbed.Teslaleadsthemarketwith

approximately20%sharetoday.Successhasnotcomecheap.Norwayhasspent

approximately$20billionontheeffortandcurrentlyspends$3.8billionperyear.20Ironically,Norwayisthelargestoil&gasexporterinWesternEurope,accountingfor24%ofthecountry’sGDP.ThecountryhaschosentoinvestitstaxrevenuetohelpitscitizenspurchaseEVsandconvertthenation’sfleetofvehicles,afterwhichtheyenjoytransportationenergyandoperatingcoststypicallyone-thirdthatofinternalcombustionenginevehicles.Abundanthydropoweralsoeasesthetransitiononthenation’spowergrid.

19:“China’sOilMajorsFaceUphillClimbtoAdapttoEVFuture,”Reuters,AndrewHayley,April11,2024.

20:“HowNorwayBuiltanEVUtopiaWhiletheU.S.IsStrugglingtoGoElectric,”CNBC,JeniecePettitt,ErinBlack,andMagdalenaPetrova,

February17,2024.

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PitchBookAnalystNote:EVChargingSegmentation

TheUSremainsconflicted,withsubstantialincentivesinplacebutrelativelylowEVadoptionoverallandpoliticalpolarizationovertheissuethreateningtoextinguishtheeffortaltogether.

Thebuild-outofcharginginfrastructuretosuppor