平準(zhǔn)化能源成本+（2024版）

LEVELIZEDCOSTOFENERGY+

June2024

WITHSUPPORTFROM

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TableofContents

I

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

3

II

LAZARD’SLEVELIZEDCOSTOFENERGYANALYSIS—VERSION17.0

7

III

LAZARD’SLEVELIZEDCOSTOFSTORAGEANALYSIS—VERSION9.0

18

IV

LAZARD’SLEVELIZEDCOSTOFHYDROGENANALYSIS—VERSION4.0

26

APPENDIX

30

A

LCOEv17.0

31

B

LCOSv9.0

40

C

LCOHv4.0

45

LAZARD

ExecutiveSummary

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LAZARD

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IEXECUTIVESUMMARY

ExecutiveSummary—LevelizedCostofEnergyVersion17.0(1)

TheresultsofourLevelizedCostofEnergy(“LCOE”)analysisreinforcewhatweobserveacrossthePower,Energy&InfrastructureIndustry—sizableandwell-capitalizedcompaniesthatcantakeadvantageofsupplychainandothereconomiesofscale,andthathavestrongbalancesheetsupporttoweatherfluctuationsinthemacroenvironment,willcontinueleadingthebuild-outofnewrenewableenergyassets.ThisisparticularlytrueinarisingLCOEenvironmentlikewhatwehaveobservedinthisyear’sanalysis.Amplifyingthisobservation,andnotovertlycoveredinourreport,arethe

complexitiesrelatedtocurrentlyobserveddemandgrowthandgrid-relatedconstraints,amongotherfactors.KeytakeawaysfromVersion17.0ofLazard’sLCOEinclude:

1.LowEndLCOEValuesIncrease;OverallRangesTighten

DespitehighendLCOEdeclinesforselectedrenewableenergytechnologies,thelowendsofourLCOEhaveincreasedforthefirsttimeever,drivenbythepersistenceofcertaincostpressures(e.g.,highinterestrates,etc.).ThesetwophenomenaresultintighterLCOEranges(offsettingthesignificantrangeexpansionobservedlastyear)andrelativelystableLCOEaveragesyear-over-year.Thepersistenceofelevatedcostscontinuestoreinforcethecentralthemenotedabove—sizableandwell-capitalizedcompaniesthatcantakeadvantageofsupplychainandothereconomiesofscale,andthathavestrongbalancesheetsupporttoweatherfluctuationsinthemacro

environment,willcontinueleadingthebuild-outofnewrenewableenergyassets.

2.BaseloadPowerNeedsWillRequireDiverseGenerationFleets

Despitethesustainedcost-competitivenessofrenewableenergytechnologies,diversegenerationfleetswillberequiredtomeetbaseloadpowerneedsoverthelongterm.Thisisparticularlyevidentintoday’sincreasingpowerdemandenvironmentdrivenby,amongotherthings,therapidgrowthofartificialintelligence,datacenter

deployment,reindustrialization,onshoringandelectrification.Aselectricitygenerationfromintermittentrenewablesincreases,thetimingimbalancebetweenpeak

customerdemandandrenewableenergyproductionisexacerbated.Assuch,theoptimalsolutionformanyregionsistocomplementnewrenewableenergytechnologieswitha“firming”resourcesuchasenergystorageornew/existingandfullydispatchablegenerationtechnologies(ofwhichCCGTsremainthemostprevalent).This

observationisreinforcedbytheresultsofthisyear’smarginalcostanalysis,whichshowsanincreasingpricecompetitivenessofexistinggas-firedgenerationascomparedtonew-buildrenewableenergytechnologies.Assuch,andashasbeennotedinourhistoricreports,theLCOEisjustthestartingpointforresourceplanningandhas

alwaysreinforcedtheneedforadiversityofenergyresources,includingbutnotlimitedtorenewableenergy.

3.InnovationIsCriticaltotheEnergyTransition

Continuousinnovationacrosstechnology,capitalformationandpolicyisrequiredtofullyenabletheEnergyTransition,whichwedefinetoincludeagenerationmixthatisdiverseandadvancedenoughtomeettheongoingreshapingofourenergyeconomy.TheEnergyTransitionwillalsorequirecontinuedmaturationofselected

technologiesnotincludedinouranalysis(e.g.,carboncapture,utilizationandsequestration(“CCUS”),longdurationenergystorage,newnucleartechnologies,etc.).Whiletheresultsofthisyear’sLCOEreinforceourpreviousconclusions—thecost-competitivenessofrenewableswillleadtothecontinueddisplacementofconventional

generationandanevolvingenergymix—thetimingofsuchdisplacementandcompositionofsuchmixwillbeimpactedbymanyfactors,includingthoseoutsideofthescopeofourLCOE(e.g.,gridinvestment,permittingreform,transmissionqueuereform,economicpolicy,continuedadvancementofflexibleloadandlocallysited

generation,etc.).

LAZARD

Copyright2024Lazard

(1)ThisanalysishasbeencompiledusingU.S.-focuseddata.4

ThisanalysishasbeenpreparedbyLazardforgeneralinformationalandillustrativepurposesonly,anditisnotintendedtobe,andshouldnotbeconstruedas,financialorotheradvice.Nopartofthismaterialmaybecopied,photocopiedorduplicatedinanyformbyanymeansorredistributedwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofLazard.

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IEXECUTIVESUMMARY

ExecutiveSummary—LevelizedCostofStorageVersion9.0(1)

TheresultsofourLevelizedCostofStorage(“LCOS”)analysisreinforcewhatweobserveacrossthePower,Energy&InfrastructureIndustry—energy

storagesystem(“ESS”)applicationsarebecomingmorevaluable,wellunderstoodand,byextension,widespreadasgridoperatorsbeginadoptingmethodologiestovaluetheseresourcesleadingtoincreasedtransactionactivityandinfrastructureclassificationfortheESSassetclass.Key

takeawaysfromVersion9.0ofLazard’sLCOSinclude:

1.IncreasedLCOSVariability

WhilewesawincrementaldeclinesinthelowendLCOSascomparedtolastyear’sanalysis,thehighendincreasedmorenoticeably,resultinginawiderrangeofLCOSoutcomesacrosstheoperationalparametersanalyzed.Thedeclineonthelowendwas,inpart,drivenbyanoticeabledeclineincellpricesresultingfromincreased

manufacturingcapacityinChinaanddecreasedmineralpricing.However,thiswasoffsetbysignificantincreasesinengineering,procurementandconstruction(“EPC”)pricingdriven,inpart,byhighdemand,increasedtimelinescrutiny,skilledlaborshortagesandprevailingwagerequirements.Alsonotableistheincreasedimpactofeconomiesofscalebenefitsinprocurement,mirroringtheobservationswehaveseenintheLCOEinrecentyears.

2.ThePoweroftheIRAIsClear

Despitethesignificantincreasesinwholesalepricingforlithiumcarbonateandlithiumhydroxideobservedfrom2022to2023,theIRA’sgrantofITCeligibilityfor

standaloneESSassetskeptLCOSv8.0valuesrelativelyneutralascomparedtoLCOSv7.0.Oneyearlater,forthisyear’sLCOSv9.0,ITCimplementation,includingtheapplicationofenergycommunityadders,isfullyunderwayandtheimpactsareclear.TheITC,alongwithlowercellpricingandtechnologyimprovements,isleadingtoanincreasingtrendofoversizingbatterycapacitytooffsetfuturedegradationandusefullifeconsiderations,whichisnotonlyextendingusefullifeexpectationsbutisalso

increasingresidualvalueandoverallprojectreturns.WhiletheITCandenergycommunityadderareprevalent,thedomesticcontentadderremainsuncertain,

notwithstandingthevariousdomesticmanufacturingannouncements.Thelackofclarityrelatedtoqualifyingforlocalcontentisleadingtolongerleadtimesandhighercontingencies.AddingtothisoverallcomplexityistherecentlyproposedincreaseofSection301importtariffsonlithium-ionbatteries,whichmanybelievewillleadtoincreaseddomesticbatterysupplybutwithuncertaincostsresults.

3.Lithium-IonBatteriesRemainDominant

Lithium-ionbatteriesremainthemostcostcompetitiveshort-term(i.e.,2–4-hour)storagetechnology,given,amongotherthings,amaturesupplychainandglobal

marketdemand.Lithium-ion,however,isnotwithoutitschallenges.Forexample,safetyremainsaconcernforutilitiesandcommercial&industrialowners,particularlyinurbanareas,andlonger-durationlithium-ionusecasescanhavechallengingeconomicprofiles.Assuch,industryparticipantshavestartedprogressingnon-lithium-basedtechnologysolutions,includingforlonger-durationusecasesandapplications.Suchtechnologiesaretargetingnewmarketsegments,includingindustrialapplications,

datacenterdeploymentsandultra-longdurationapplicationsinregionswithhighpenetrationofintermittentrenewableenergy.However,thedevelopmentoflongdurationenergystoragestillrequirescleardemonstrationofthecommercialoperationofthesetechnologies,marketmaturation(includingthedevelopmentofstrongerincentivesforlongdurationprojectsthatcouldcapturecapacityrevenuesinmerchantandbilateralmarkets)andmanufacturingscaletorealize(long-promised)costreductions,allresultingingreaterwillingnessofinsuranceandfinancingparticipantstounderwritetheseprojects.

LAZARD

Copyright2024Lazard

(1)ThisanalysishasbeencompiledusingU.S.-focuseddata.5

ThisanalysishasbeenpreparedbyLazardforgeneralinformationalandillustrativepurposesonly,anditisnotintendedtobe,andshouldnotbeconstruedas,financialorotheradvice.Nopartofthismaterialmaybecopied,photocopiedorduplicatedinanyformbyanymeansorredistributedwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofLazard.

ExecutiveSummary—LevelizedCostofHydrogenVersion4.0(1)

Hydrogencontinuestoberegardedasapotentialsolutionforindustrialprocessesthatwillbedifficulttodecarbonizethroughotherexisting

technologiesoralternatives.HydrogenproductionintheU.S.primarilycomesfromfossilfuelsthroughsteam-methanereforming(“SMR”)and

methanesplittingprocessesresultingin“gray”hydrogen.Thecostoftheequipment(i.e.,the“electrolyzer”)andthesourceoftheelectricity(i.e.,

wind-andsolar-derivedelectricityfor“green”hydrogen,nuclear-derivedelectricityfor“pink”hydrogen,etc.)continuetohavethegreatestimpactonthelevelizedcostofhydrogenproduction.KeytakeawaysfromVersion4.0ofLazard’sLevelizedCostofHydrogen(“LCOH”)analysisinclude:

1.AMaturingIndustryDrivesDecliningCosts

ObservabledeclinesintheresultsofourLCOHanalysisindicatethatthehydrogenelectrolyzerindustryiscontinuingtomatureandwilllikelyscaleovertime.Proton

ExchangeMembrane(“PEM”)andAlkalineelectrolyzersarethedominanttechnologies,buttheirhighercostsrelativetocurrentlyavailablealternatives(e.g.,renewables+BESS,dispatchablegas-firedgeneration,etc.)hindersignificantmarketexpansion.Notably,thereisaconsiderablepricedisparityacrossthemarketforelectrolyzer

equipment,whichwouldbemoreovertlypronouncedhadthisreportincludedelectrolyzersmanufacturedinChinagiventhesignificantlylowerpriceexpectations.Despitethispricedisparity,Western-suppliedelectrolyzersandrelatedequipmentremaincompetitivegiventhegreaterlevelofperformancevalidationandfreedomfromthe

potentialrisksoftariffandtradeimplications.

2.UncertaintyAroundIRAImplementation

Implementationchallengesforhydrogenprojectsvarydramaticallybymarketsandusecases.IntheU.S.,projectdevelopersarewaitingforfinalguidancefromthe

TreasuryDepartmentontheIRA45(V)taxcredittoprovideclarityonwhichprojectsqualifyfortheproductionsubsidy(upto$3perkilogramofhydrogen).Akeyconcernforprojectdevelopersishowtheproductioncostsforgreenhydrogenwillbeimpactedbyhourlymatchingrequirementswhichwouldstipulatethatrenewablepower

productionmustoccurinthesamehourashydrogenproduction.HourlymatchingrequirementswouldlikelyleadtoanincreaseintheresultsofourLCOHduetohigherrenewablepowerdevelopmentcostsandlowerelectrolyzerutilizationrates.FinalguidancefromtheTreasuryDepartmentmayimpactthecompetitivenessandadoptionrateforgreenhydrogenrelativetoalternativessuchas“blue”hydrogen(i.e.,hydrogenproducedfromfossilfuelswithCCUS).

3.UseCaseAnalysisIsCritical

WhilethescopeofourLCOHremainsfocusedonthecostofproduction,weplantobroadentheLCOHinthecomingyearstoevaluatevarioususecases(similartotheexpansionofourLCOSanalysisandtherelated“ValueSnapshots”).Wecontinuetoseegrowinginterestfromkeyhydrogenoff-takersinthechemicalsindustry(e.g.,ammoniaforuseinfertilizer)anddemandisexpectedtocontinueincreasingforfuelsproducedfromcleanhydrogentohelpdecarbonizetransportationsectors(e.g.,

maritime).Inaddition,severalcompaniesinhard-to-abateindustrialsectors(e.g.,steel,constructionmaterials,etc.)areconsideringhydrogenasanalternativetofossilfuelsforsomeheat-generatingapplications.Althoughthetechnologyisbroadlyavailable,usinghydrogenforpowergeneration(orblendingitwithnaturalgas)willlikelyrequirecapital-intensiveupgradestocurrentgenerationassets,storagefacilitiesandpipelinestoprotectthelegacyinfrastructureandavoidleakages.

LAZARD

Copyright2024Lazard

(1)ThisanalysishasbeencompiledusingU.S.-focuseddata.6

ThisanalysishasbeenpreparedbyLazardforgeneralinformationalandillustrativepurposesonly,anditisnotintendedtobe,andshouldnotbeconstruedas,financialorotheradvice.Nopartofthismaterialmaybecopied,photocopiedorduplicatedinanyformbyanymeansorredistributedwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofLazard.

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Lazard’sLevelizedCostofEnergyAnalysis—Version17.0

LAZARD

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IILAZARD’SLEVELIZEDCOSTOFENERGYANALYSIS—VERSION17.

0

Introduction

Lazard’sLevelizedCostofEnergyanalysisaddressesthefollowingtopics:

?ComparativeLCOEanalysisforvariousgenerationtechnologiesona$/MWhbasis,includingsensitivitiesforU.S.federaltaxsubsidies,fuelprices,carbonpricingandcostofcapital

?IllustrationofhowtheLCOEofonshorewind,utility-scalesolarandhybridprojectscomparetothemarginalcostofselectedconventionalgenerationtechnologies

?IllustrationofhowtheLCOEofonshorewind,utility-scalesolarandhybridprojects,plusthecostoffirmingintermittencyinvariousregions,comparestotheLCOEofselectedconventionalgenerationtechnologies

?HistoricalLCOEcomparisonofvarioustechnologies

?IllustrationofthehistoricalLCOEdeclinesforonshorewindandutility-scalesolar

?Appendixmaterials,including:

?DeconstructionoftheLCOEforvariousgenerationtechnologiesbycapitalcost,fixedoperationsandmaintenance(“O&M”)expense,variableO&Mexpenseandfuelcost

?AnoverviewofthemethodologyutilizedtoprepareLazard’sLCOEanalysis

?AsummaryoftheassumptionsutilizedinLazard’sLCOEanalysis

Otherfactorswouldalsohaveapotentiallysignificanteffectontheresultscontainedherein,buthavenotbeenexaminedinthescopeofthiscurrentanalysis.Theseadditional

factors,amongothers,mayinclude:implementationandinterpretationofthefullscopeoftheIRA;economicpolicy,transmissionqueuereform,networkupgradesandother

transmissionmatters,congestion,curtailmentorotherintegration-relatedcosts;permittingorotherdevelopmentcosts,unlessotherwisenoted;andcostsofcomplyingwith

variousenvironmentalregulations(e.g.,carbonemissionsoffsetsoremissionscontrolsystems).Thisanalysisisintendedtorepresentasnapshotintimeandutilizesawide,butnotexhaustive,samplesetofIndustrydata.Assuch,werecognizeandacknowledgethelikelihoodofresultsoutsideofourranges.Therefore,thisanalysisisnotaforecasting

toolandshouldnotbeusedassuch,giventhecomplexitiesofourevolvingIndustry,gridandresourceneeds.Exceptasillustrativelysensitizedherein,thisanalysisdoesnot

considertheintermittentnatureofselectedrenewablesenergytechnologiesortherelatedgridimpactsofincrementalrenewableenergydeployment.Thisanalysisalsodoesnotaddresspotentialsocialandenvironmentalexternalities,including,forexample,thesocialcostsandrateconsequencesforthosewhocannotafforddistributedgeneration

solutions,aswellasthelong-termresidualandsocietalconsequencesofvariousconventionalgenerationtechnologiesthataredifficulttomeasure(e.g.,airbornepollutants,greenhousegases,etc.)

LAZARD8

Copyright2024Lazard

ThisanalysishasbeenpreparedbyLazardforgeneralinformationalandillustrativepurposesonly,anditisnotintendedtobe,andshouldnotbeconstruedas,financialorotheradvice.Nopartofthismaterialmaybecopied,photocopiedorduplicatedinanyformbyanymeansorredistributedwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofLazard.

LazardandRolandBergerestimatesandpubliclyavailableinformation.

SolarPV—RooftopResidentialSolarPV—Community&C&I

SolarPV—Utility

SolarPV+Storage—Utility

Geothermal

Wind—Onshore

Wind+Storage—Onshore

Wind—Offshore

GasPeaking

U.S.Nuclear

Coal

GasCombinedCycle

RenewableEnergy

(1)

(1)

ConventionalEnergy(2)

(1)

Copyright2024Lazard

IILAZARD’SLEVELIZEDCOSTOFENERGYANALYSIS—VERSION17.0

LevelizedCostofEnergyComparison—Version17.0

Selectedrenewableenergygenerationtechnologiesremaincost-competitivewithconventionalgenerationtechnologiesundercertaincircumstances

$122

$64

$45

$190(4)

$69

$71(3)

$190(4)

$133

$106

$168

$284

$54

$191

$29

$92

$60

$210

$73

$27

$74

$139

$85(3)

$110

$228

$222

$142

$32(3)

$30(3)$45$108$150(5)

$0$25$50$75$100$125$150$175$200$225$250$275$300

Source:

Note:

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

LevelizedCostofEnergy($/MWh)

Hereandthroughoutthisanalysis,unlessotherwiseindicated,theanalysisassumes60%debtatan8%interestrateand40%equityata12%cost.Seepagetitled“LevelizedCostofEnergyComparison—SensitivitytoCostofCapital”forcostofcapitalsensitivities.

Giventhelimitedpublicand/orobservabledataavailablefornew-buildgeothermal,coalandnuclearprojectstheLCOEpresentedhereinreflectsLazard’sLCOEv14.0resultsadjustedforinflationand,fornuclear,arebasedonthen-estimatedcostsoftheVogtlePlant.CoalLCOEdoesnotincludecostoftransportationandstorage.

ThefuelcostassumptionsforLazard’sLCOEanalysisofgas-firedgeneration,coal-firedgenerationandnucleargenerationresourcesare$3.45/MMBTU,$1.47/MMBTUand$0.85/MMBTUrespectively,foryear-over-yearcomparisonpurposes.Seepagetitled“LevelizedCostofEnergyComparison—SensitivitytoFuelPrices”forfuelpricesensitivities.

ReflectstheaverageofthehighandlowLCOEmarginalcostofoperatingfullydepreciatedgaspeaking,gascombinedcycle,coalandnuclearfacilities,inclusiveofdecommissioningcostsfornuclearfacilities.Analysisassumesthatthesalvagevalueforadecommissionedgasorcoalassetisequivalenttoitsdecommissioningandsiterestorationcosts.Inputsarederivedfromabenchmarkofoperatinggas,coalandnuclearassetsacrosstheU.S.Capacityfactors,fuel,variableandfixedoperatingexpensesarebasedonupper-andlower-quartileestimatesderivedfromLazard’sresearch.Seepagetitled“LevelizedCostofEnergyComparison—NewBuildRenewableEnergyvs.MarginalCostof

ExistingConventionalGeneration”foradditionaldetails.

RepresentstheillustrativemidpointLCOEforVogtlenuclearplantunits3and4basedonpubliclyavailableestimates.Totaloperatingcapacityof~2.2GW,totalcapitalcostof~$31.5billion,capacityfactorof~97%,operatinglifeof60–80yearsandotheroperatingparametersestimatedbyLazard’sLCOEv14.0resultsadjustedforinflation.SeeAppendixformoredetails.

ReflectstheLCOEoftheobservedhighcasegascombinedcycleinputsusinga20%blendofgreenhydrogenbyvolume(i.e.,hydrogenproducedfromanelectrolyzerpoweredbyamixofwindandsolargenerationandstoredina

nearbysaltcavern).Noplantmodificationsareassumedbeyonda2%increasetotheplant’sheatrate.Thecorrespondingfuelcostis$6.66/MMBTU,assuming~$5.25/kgforgreenhydrogen(unsubsidizedPEM).SeeLCOH—Version4.0foradditionalinformation.

9

ThisanalysishasbeenpreparedbyLazardforgeneralinformationalandillustrativepurposesonly,anditisnotintendedtobe,andshouldnotbeconstruedas,financialorotheradvice.Nopartofthismaterialmaybecopied,photocopiedorduplicatedinanyformbyanymeansorredistributedwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofLazard.

IILAZARD’SLEVELIZEDCOSTOFENERGYANALYSIS—VERSION17.

0

RenewableEnergy

SolarPV—RooftopResidential(ITC)

SolarPV—Community&C&I(ITC)

SolarPV—Utility(ITC)

SolarPV—Utility(PTC)

SolarPV+Storage—Utility(ITC)

Geothermal(ITC)

Wind—Onshore(PTC)

Wind+Storage—Onshore(PTC/ITC)

Wind—Offshore(PTC)

LevelizedCostofEnergyComparison—SensitivitytoU.S.FederalTaxSubsidies(1)

TheInvestmentTaxCredit(“ITC”),ProductionTaxCredit(“PTC”)andEnergyCommunityadder,amongotherprovisionsintheIRA,areimportantcomponentsoftheLCOEforrenewableenergytechnologies

$75

$122$284$228

$34

$54$191$157

$29$92$19$78

$6

$29$92$73

$38

$60$210

$171

$64

$43

$90

$106

$0(2)

$27$73$62

$8

$45$133$123

$74$139$71$123

$0$25$50$75$100$125$150$175$200$225$250$275$300

LevelizedCostofEnergy($/MWh)

LCOESubsidized(incl.EnergyCommunity)(3)Subsidized(excl.EnergyCommunity)

Source:LazardandRolandBergerestimatesandpubliclyavailableinformation.

Note:Unlessotherwiseindicated,thisanalysisdoesnotincludeotherstateorfederalsubsidies(e.g.,domesticcontentadder,etc.).TheIRAiscomprehensivelegislationthatisstillbeingimplementedandremainssubjectto

interpretation—importantelementsoftheIRAarenotincludedinouranalysisandcouldimpactoutcomes.

(1)ThissensitivityanalysisassumesthatprojectsqualifyforthefullITC/PTC,haveacapitalstructurethatincludessponsorequity,debtandtaxequityandassumestheequityownerhastaxableincometomonetizeaportionofthetaxcredits.

(2)ResultsatthislevelaredrivenbyLazard’sapproachtocalculatingtheLCOEandselectedinputs(seeAppendixAforfurtherdetails).Lazard’sLCOEanalysisassumes,foryear-over-yearreferencepurposes,60%debtatan8%

impliedIRRgreaterthantheassumed12%).10

interestrateand40%equityata12%cost(togetherimplyinganafter-taxIRR/WACCof7.7%).ImpliedIRRsatthislevelforWind—Onshore(PTC)is13%(i.e.,thevalueofthePTCandEnergyCommunityadderresultinan

(3)ThissensitivityanalysisassumesthatprojectsqualifyforthefullITC/PTCandalsoincludesanEnergyCommunityadderof10%forITCprojectsand$3/MWhforPTCprojects.

Copyright2024Lazard

ThisanalysishasbeenpreparedbyLazardforgeneralinformationalandillustrativepurposesonly,anditisnotintendedtobe,andshouldnotbeconstruedas,financialorotheradvice.Nopartofthismaterialmaybecopied,photocopiedorduplicatedinanyformbyanymeansorredistributedwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofLazard.

IILAZARD’SLEVELIZEDCOSTOFENERGYANALYSIS—VERSION17.

0

LevelizedCostofEnergyComparison—SensitivitytoFuelPrices

VariationsinfuelpricescanmateriallyaffecttheLCOEofconventionalgenerationtechnologies,butdirectcomparisonsto“competing”renewableenergygenerationtechnologiesmusttakeintoaccountissuessuchasdispatchcharacteristics(e.g.,baseloadand/ordispatchableintermediate

capacityvs.peakingorintermittenttechnologies)

RenewableEnergy

SolarPV—RooftopResidential

SolarPV—Community&C&I

SolarPV—Utility

SolarPV+Storage—Utility

Geothermal

Wind—Onshore

Wind+Storage—Onshore

Wind—Offshore

$122

$284

$54

$191