未來能源研究所-探索氫在重型卡車運輸中的作用 Exploring Hydrogens Role in Heavy-Duty Trucking 2024

ExploringHydrogen’sRoleinHeavy-DutyTrucking

KatarinaNehrkorn,BeiaSpiller,andAlanKrupnick

Report24-11July2024

AbouttheAuthors

KatarinaNehrkornisaseniorresearchanalystatResourcesfortheFuture(RFF).

ShegraduatedfromtheUniversityofMichiganin2020withaBAinEconomics.Aftergraduating,sheworkedatDeloittefortwoyearsinitsRiskandFinancialAdvisory

sector.In2023,Nehrkorncompletedhermaster’sinEnvironmentalEconomicsandClimateChangefromtheLondonSchoolofEconomicswhereherdissertationwasfocusedonenergycommunitieswithintheInflationReductionAct.

BeiaSpillerisafellowandthedirectorforRFF’sTransportationProgram.PriortojoiningRFF,shewasLeadSeniorEconomistatEnvironmentalDefenseFund,wheresheworkedforalmostadecade.SheisalsoaBoardmemberfortheAssociation

ofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists.Spillerisanenergyeconomist,withexperienceworkingonelectricityandtransportationissues.

AlanKrupnickisaseniorfellowatRFF,directorofitsIndustryandFuelsProgram,andanexpertontheoilandgassector,reducinggreenhousegasemissionsfrom

thisandtheindustrialsectors,andcost-benefitanalysis.Inparticular,Krupnick’s

recentresearchfocusesongreenpublicprocurement,decarbonizedhydrogenandtaxcredits,anddevelopingmarketsforgreennaturalgas.HisportfolioalsoincludesguidingthevalueofinformationagendacoveredbyourVALUABLESinitiativewithNASA,thevaluationofreducingasthmarisks,estimatingthevalueofstatisticallife,andissuesofregulatoryreform.

ResourcesfortheFuturei

AboutRFF

ResourcesfortheFuture(RFF)isanindependent,nonprofitresearchinstitutionin

Washington,DC.Itsmissionistoimproveenvironmental,energy,andnaturalresourcedecisionsthroughimpartialeconomicresearchandpolicyengagement.RFFis

committedtobeingthemostwidelytrustedsourceofresearchinsightsandpolicysolutionsleadingtoahealthyenvironmentandathrivingeconomy.

TheviewsexpressedherearethoseoftheindividualauthorsandmaydifferfromthoseofotherRFFexperts,itsofficers,oritsdirectors.

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ExploringHydrogen’sRoleinHeavy-DutyTruckingii

Contents

1.Introduction1

2.HowItWorks1

3.TheStatusofHydrogen-FueledHeavy-DutyVehicles2

4.Environmental,EnvironmentalJustice,Cost,andOperationalConsiderations3

4.1.Environmental3

4.2.EnvironmentalJustice4

4.3.Cost5

4.4.Operational6

5.KeyChallengestoH2Deployment7

5.1.Infrastructure7

5.2.FleetTransitionCosts7

5.3.SecondaryTruckMarket8

6.PolicyLandscape9

6.1.CaliforniaPolicies9

6.2.FederalPolicies10

7.HowCanWeOvercomeChallengestoDeployment?11

References13

ResourcesfortheFutureiii

1.Introduction

Cleanhydrogen(H2)fuelcanplayaroleindecarbonizingtheheavy-duty

transportationsector.TransportationisthebiggestsourceofanthropogenicCO2

emissionswithintheUnitedStates,andmedium-andheavy-dutyvehiclesmakeup23percentoftransportationemissions.Theheavy-dutytransportationsectorisdefinedascommercialvehicleswithgrossvehicleweightratings1morethan26,001poundsandgenerallyincludesdrayagetrucks,shortandregionaldaycabs,andlong-haulClass8trucks.2Thissectorisparticularlydifficulttodecarbonize,asthesetrucksoftenrequirelongrangesandcarryheavypayloads.ThisreportprovidesanoverviewofH2truck

technology,itscurrentstatusintheUnitedStates,comparisonstodieselandbatteryelectrictrucks,challengestodeployment,andpolicyissues.

2.HowItWorks

H2canbeusedinheavy-dutytransportationthroughtwoprimarytechnologies:

fuel

cellelectricvehicles

(FCEVs)or

H2internalcombustionengines

(H2ICEs).ThisreportfocusesonFCEVs,asthisistheprimaryusetodayandenvisionedforthefuture.In

bothcases,thefuelingprocesslookssimilartoconventionaldiesel,withH2beingdirectlyputintothetankasaliquidorgas.

However,fuelcellsoperatesimilarlytobatteries,withasmalleronboardbatteryand

fuelcell,whichproduceselectricityaslongasH2issupplied.Thefuelcellsinclude

onepositiveelectrode(cathode)andonenegativeelectrode(anode)thatsurroundanelectrolyte.TheanodereceivesH2,andthecathodereceivesair.H2isthenseparatedintoprotonsandelectrons;theelectronstravelthroughanexternalcircuit,creating

electricity.Theprotonsmigratetothecathodeandignitewithoxygenandtheelectron,emittingwaterandheatastheonlytailpipeemissions(DOE2024).

H2canbestoredaseitheraliquidoragas,withgaseousstoragerequiringextremelyhigh-pressuretanksat350–700bartoincreasedensityandliquifiedH2requiring

refrigerationto

-253°C

.H2hasthehighestenergypermassofanyfuel;however,ithasalowenergyperunitofvolume,creatingchallengesforstorageandtransportation.

LiquifyingH2increasesenergyperunitvolume,thereforeallowingmoretobe

transportedandstoredandincreasingtruckrange.Nevertheless,mostattentionis

focusedongaseousH2duetothecostandcomplexitiesofkeepingliquifiedH2atsuchlowtemperatures,aswellassafetyconcerns,asanytemperatureabove-253°Cwill

causeittoturntogasandbuildpressurewithinthetankthatcouldleadtoexplosion.

1Grossvehicleweightratingisthemaximumoperatingweightincludingvehicle,passenger,fuel,andpayload.

2Drayagetrucksareaformofshort-haulheavy-dutytruckingthattransportscontainersandfreightbetweendifferentshippingmodes.Shortandregionaldaycabsareheavy-dutytruckswithoutasleepercabin.Long-haulclass8trucksgenerallyincludetractorsandtractor-trailerswithasleepercabinforlong-haulroutes.

ExploringHydrogen’sRoleinHeavy-DutyTrucking1

3.TheStatusofHydrogen-FueledHeavy-DutyVehicles

AlthoughH2light-dutyFCEVsarealreadyinpublicuse(particularlyinCalifornia),

heavy-dutytransportationapplicationsarejustreachingcommercialdeployment.

SeveralcompaniesareinvestinginH2fuelcelltrucks,withnotableexamplesbeing

Nikola,Hyzon,Daimler,Volvo,andHyundai.Mostofthesecompaniesareintheearly

demonstrationphases;however,Nikolajustdelivereditsfirstproductionrunin2023,

with42trucks,andexpectstodeliverupto350morein2024.Forcomparison,

266,752

newheavy-dutytrucks

weresoldintheUnitedStatesin2023;around

1,200were

batteryelectric

,andmostoftheremainingwerediesel.

H2fuelinginfrastructureisalsoinitsinfancywithintheUnitedStates.Thereare

currentlyonly

56openretailstations

,withallbutoneinCaliforniaandalmostall

servinglight-dutyvehicles.Only

sixrefuelingstations

serveheavy-ormedium-

dutyvehicles,withthreeservingtrucksandtheremainingservingbustransitfleets.However,thissituationissettoimprove,withNikolaplanningtoopen60heavy-dutyfuelingstationsoverthenextfewyears,

nineofthemrunningbythemiddleof2024

.

Fuelcelltransitbusesarecomparativelyfurtheralongthantrucks,withCalifornia

operating66suchbuses.Asof2020,theNationalRenewableEnergyLab(NREL)

consideredfuelcellbusestobeatatechnologyreadinesslevelof7–8,indicatingthattheyareundergoingfull-scalevalidationinarelevantenvironment(EudyandPost

2021).Notableexamplesexistinotherareasofthecountry,suchasOhio’sStarkAreaRegionalTransitauthority,whichoperates18H2busesandarefuelingstation.

ResourcesfortheFuture2

4.Environmental,EnvironmentalJustice,Cost,andOperational

Considerations

Thissectionexplorestheenvironmental,environmentaljustice,cost,andoperationalconsiderationsofFCEVsandcomparesthemtodieselvehicles,theincumbentchoice,andbatteryelectricvehicles(BEVs),thewidelyembracedlow-emissionalternative.3

4.1.Environmental

AssessingtheenvironmentalimpactsofH2FCEVscanbechallenging,asupstream

emissionswillhavethelargestimpactonlife-cycleemissions.Fuelcellenginesdirectlyemitonlyheatandwater;however,upstreamemissionsfromtheH2production

pathwaycansignificantlyincreaseemissions.Currently,95percentofH2intheUSis“gray,”producedfromnaturalgas,which

emits7–10kgCO2/kgH2

.“Green”H2,fromzero-carbonelectricity(suchassolar,wind,hydropower,andnuclear),makesup

lessthan1percentofUSproductionanddoesnotemitanyCO2duringproduction.

However,theenvironmentalbenefitofgreenH2willbelessenedifthecleanelectricityisnot“additional,”ascleanenergyusedforH2productioncancomeattheopportunitycostofdecarbonizingelsewhere.Althoughthe

USRegionalCleanHydrogenHubs

areaimedatincreasingtheamountofboth“blue”H2(producedfromnaturalgaswithtechnologyforcapturingCO2emissionsandstoringitpermanently)andgreenH2

producedwithintheUnitedStates,production(andthedistributionsystemtoreach

demandcenters)willtakeyearstocometofruition.BecauseFCEVsarebeingdeployednow,theywillbefueledmostlybygrayH2untilcleanH2(andrefuelinginfrastructure)iswidelyavailableatcompetitive(orsubsidized)prices.

MoststudiesfindthatH2truckswouldreducelife-cyclegreenhousegas(GHG)

emissionscomparedtodieseltrucks,butthedegreevariesbystudy,vehicletype,

andH2pathway.Onestudy(O’Connelletal.2023)conductedalife-cycleassessmentinEuropeandfoundthatgaseousH2producedusingnaturalgasonlyreducesGHG

3

Biodieseldiesel

,

renewablediesel

,and

e-fuels

areadditionalalternativesintheheavy-dutytruckingsector.Theyarenotincludedindetailinthisreport,aswehavefocused

onzero-tailpipe-emissionoptions.However,theycanprovideanattractivealternative,

astheycanfunctionasadrop-infuel,allowingexistinginternalcombustionvehicles

tocontinuetobeused.Biodieselismadefromvegetableoilsandanimalfatsviaan

esterificationprocess.Renewabledieselissimilarbutusesahydrogenationprocess,

whichmakesitchemicallyequivalenttopetroleumdiesel.Renewabledieselisthemostsuitableasadrop-infuelandcanbeproducedinexistingpetroleumrefinerieswithsmallchanges.E-fuelsaremadebysynthesizingcapturedCO2andhydrogen,makingthem

CO2-neutral,asanyCO2fromcombustionwasalreadyreleasedpreviously.TheseoptionswouldallleadtorelativereductionsinCO2emissionscomparedtodiesel,buttheywouldstillproduceCO2tailpipeemissionsandcriteriaairpollutants.

ExploringHydrogen’sRoleinHeavy-DutyTrucking3

emissionsby15percentcomparedtoconventionaldiesel.Whenaddingtheenergy

toliquifytheH2,emissionsaregreaterthanthoseofdiesel.However,theyfoundthatgreenH2coulddecreaseemissionsbyasmuchas84percentfortractor-trailers,

fallingshortof100percentbecausethestudyincludedvehicleproductionemissionsaswell.Anotherlife-cyclecomparisonstudybyLeeetal.(2018)foundsimilarresults,withFCEVsusinggaseousH2fromnaturalgasreducingGHGemissionsby20–45

percent,dependingonvehicleweightandtype.However,thisstudyfoundthatwiththecurrentelectricitygenerationmix,FCEVscreatemoreSOxemissionsthandiesel.ThesecomparisonsalsoplayintothedebateaboutH2taxcrediteligibility(seelaterinthispaper).

TheenvironmentaleffectsofBEVswillalsodependonupstreamproduction

pathways—theelectricitygrid.LikeFCEVs,BEVscomeattheopportunitycostof

usingrenewableelectricityelsewhere;however,theyaretwiceasefficientasFCEVsatconvertingrenewableelectricitytoamobilityservice(Ligenetal.2018).O’Connelletal.(2023)andLeeetal.(2018)foundthatBEVsleadtogreateremissionsreductionscomparedtoFCEVs.

Finally,H2production,fuelcell,andbatterycomponentsrequiremorecriticalmineralscomparedtodieselengines,increasingdemandforlithium,nickel,copper,platinum,

iridiumandotherminerals.Electrolysersrequireincreasednickelandzirconium,andfuelcellsrequirecopperandplatinum-groupmetals(IEA2021).Thelatter,whicharealreadyusedforinternalcombustionvehicles,areofparticularconcerngiventhelowannualproduction.However,DOEhassettargetsforplatinumrequirementsperkW

forFCEVs,andtheIEAfoundthatinaSustainableDevelopmentScenario,internal

combustionenginedemandforplatinum-groupmetalsstilldominatesfuelcellsin

2040(IEA2021).BEVsrequireacomparativelylargerbatterythanFCEVs(

8–16times

larger

),increasingthedemandforcriticalminerals.Continuedinnovationwillbe

necessarytokeepcriticalmineralrequirementsaslowaspossible.Ifthesesubstancesareimported,theymayaddtoenergysecurityconcerns;ifmadedomestically,their

productionandrefinementcanleadtosignificantenvironmentalpollution.

4.2.EnvironmentalJustice

EnvironmentaljusticecommunitiesexpresssignificantconcernsaroundH2production,especiallyregardingblueH2.SomeperceiveH2asastrategyforthefossilfuelindustrytocontinueproduction,fearingthatonceH2infrastructureisestablished,there

willbeaneconomicincentiveforproducerstostillusefossilfuelstomakeblueH2.

TheCO2captureandstoragetechnologiesneededforblueH2engenderadditional

skepticism,astheydonotautomaticallycapturecriteriaairpollutantsandnecessitatespipelineconstruction,posingleakageandexplosionriskstolocalenvironmentsand

communities.

JuanJhongChung

fromtheMichiganEnvironmentalJusticeCoalitioncharacterizestheseconcerns:“Carboncapturetechnologyandhydrogenwillincreaselocalairpollution,taintcleandrinkingwater,threatenthesafetyofcommunities

inthepathofnewpipelines,andraiseenergybillsforfamiliesnationwide.”Some

groupsadvocateforonlygreenH2,althoughwateruseandnon-additionalityofcleanelectricityusedforelectrolysisarestillofconcern.

ResourcesfortheFuture4

Thefederalgovernment’semphasisondirectinggrantsforblueH2productiontofundprojectsinenvironmentaljusticecommunitiesthatyieldcommunitybenefitssetsupapotentialtrade-offbetweeneconomicdevelopmentandpotentiallyincreasingnegativeexternalities.Someenvironmentaljusticeanddisadvantagedcommunitiesperceive

thisemphasisasperpetuatingenvironmentalinjusticesandunfairlyburdeningcommunitieswiththesafetyandairpollutionconcernsassociatedwithblueH2production,pipelines,anduse.

However,somepositivesupportexistsforH2useinheavy-dutytrucking.Many

communitygroupsfeelthatelectrificationshouldbethepriorityfortransportation

decarbonizationbutrecognizethatBEVsmaynotbesuitableforlong-haultrucks,

with

EarthJustice

stating,“Hydrogenisrarelyasolutionforvehiclepollution,exceptpossiblyinextremelynichetransportationsectorswecannototherwiseeasily

electrify.”Giventhatdieseltailpipeemissionsdisproportionatelyaffectenvironmental

justicecommunities,particularlyforlast-miledeliverycenters,H2presentsan

opportunitytomitigatethisissue.Nonetheless,organizationscautionthatH2adoptionshouldberestrictedtocaseswherenootherdecarbonizationsolutionisfeasible.

4.3.Cost

Totalcostofownership(TCO)isacommonmetrictocomparefleetcostsacrossfueltypes.TCOaccountsfortheoverallcostofthevehiclethroughoutitslifecycle,makingcapitalcosts,fuelcosts,andmaintenancecostsparticularlyimportant.SeveralstudieshaveattemptedtocomparetheTCOofFCEVswithalternatives.AllstudiesagreethatFCEVshaveamuchhigherTCOthandiesel,butstudiesdisagreeonwhetherparity

willeverbereachedandwhetherFCEVsorBEVsfacehigherTCOs.Onestudyby

NRELfoundthatforcertainscenarios,FCEVsreachcostparitywithdieselby2050

(Hunteretal.2021).However,ArgonneNationalLaboratoryconductedasimilarstudyandfoundmuchhigherTCOs,withFCEVsneverreachingcostparityforClass8

sleeperanddaycabs(Burnhametal.2021).Lednaetal.(2024)conductedastudythatincorporatedconsiderationsfromIRAtaxcredit45W4andDOEH25costprojections.

Theyfoundthatheavy-dutyFCEVscouldreachparityby2034.StudiesdisagreeontheTCOsforBEVs.Hunteretal.(2021)andLednaetal.(2024)bothestimatethatBEVs

willbemoreexpensiveforheavy-dutyapplications,withHunteretal.(2021)finding

thatBEVswillbemoreexpensivethanFCEVsin2050andreachcostparitywithdiesellater.However,Burnhametal.(2021)estimatesBEVswillbecheaperthanFCEVsevenin2025.TheseestimatesarehighlysensitivetoH2fuelcostassumptions,whichhaveuncertaintrajectories.Medium-andheavy-dutyBEVshavebeguntoemergeinthe

market,whichallowsustoquantifyrealizedmarketprices.However,theresulting

priceswewillexpecttoseeintheFCEVmarketasitdevelopsarelargelystillunknownandmaynotaccuratelyreflecttheengineeringandeconomicestimatesofprojectedcostsgivenmarketconditions(suchasmarketpoweramongmanufacturers).

445Wisthe“CommercialCleanVehicleCredit,”whichprovidestaxcreditsforqualified

commercialcleanvehicles.Thistaxcreditisdiscussedinthe“PolicyLandscape”section.

5DOEhydrogencostprojectionsimplicitlyincorporateincentivessimilarto45V,ascostprojectionswillrequireadditionalincentivesandinvestments.

ExploringHydrogen’sRoleinHeavy-DutyTrucking5

4.4.Operational

Operationalconsiderations,suchasrange,refuelingtime,payload,andmaintenance,

areimportantforfleetowners,asdecarbonizedsolutionsoftencomeatacostpremiumcomparedtodiesel.GivenhownewFCEVsare,estimateswillcontinuetoevolveas

thetechnologyadvances.

Nikola

claimsarangeofupto500milesandrefuelingtimesof20minutes.

HyzonMotors

isinvestinginliquidrefuelingstationsandengines,

completingitsfirstcommercialtrialofaliquidH2FCEVinTexas,travellingmorethan540mileswithoutrefuelingandexpectingrangesof650–800milesinthefuture.Somedieseltruckscantravelmorethan1,000miles,refuelingin10–20minutes,butonlya

littlemorethan

10percentofallheavy-dutyvehiclesoperateatarangemorethan

500miles

.Differencesinmaintenancerequirementscannotbereliablyestimatedyet,althoughitisexpectedthatFCEVswillhavehighermaintenancecostscomparedtodiesel,particularlyinearlystagesofthetechnology.

CleanAirTaskForce(CATF)conductedastudycomparingtheoperationaldimensionsofFCEVandBEVsandfoundthatH2edgesoutelectricityatleastinrange,load,and

refuelingtime(Walker2023).However,CATFassumedtheH2couldbedeliveredto

refuelingstations.CATFalsoassumed20-minuterefuelingforFCEVscomparedto

330-minutechargingforBEVs,buttheseassumptionsarerapidlybecomingoutofdate,withadvancementsinBEVbatteriesandchargers.Volvo’sClass8electrictruckclaimsarangeof275milesand90-minutecharging.TheClass8TeslaSemireportsranges

closerto500mileswithchargingupto70percentin30minutes.AlthoughBEVsaremakingnotableprogress,FCEVsarestillexpectedtohavebetterrangeandfaster

refuelingatacomparativelyearlierstageofthetechnology.BEVsarealsoexpectedtofacemoreperformancedegradationinextremelycoldconditionsandlosepayload,asthebatteryisbiggerthaninanFCEV.DecreasedpayloadcapacitycanincreaseTCObymorethan10percentforlargebatteries(Burnhametal.2021).FCEVsdonotrequirelargepayloadreductions,makingthemoperationallycompetitivewithdiesel.

Atthistime,BEVsappeartobebetterequippedforregionalandlocaluse,with

environmentalandenvironmentaljusticeadvantages.However,givensomeoperationaldisadvantagesofBEVs,FCEVsmaybebettersuitedfornichelong-haulapplications.Foramorein-depthlookatBEVmedium-andheavy-dutytrucks,see

Spilleretal.

(2023)

.

ResourcesfortheFuture6

5.KeyChallengestoH2Deployment

5.1.Infrastructure

Oneofthebiggesthindrancestowide-scaledeploymentofH2fuelcellsislackof

refuelinginfrastructureandlimitedincentivesforprivateinvestmentinit.H2refuelingstationsfacea“chickenandegg”problem,withtheprivatesectorlackingincentives

toinvestininfrastructureuntilthetechnologyismorewidelydeployedandwide-

scaledeploymentdifficultwithoutthatinfrastructure.Althoughthegovernmenthas

releasedastrategy

foranationalnetworkofzero-emissionrefuelingstations,buildoutstillhasalongwaytogo,withonlysixheavy-dutystationsavailable.6ICCTfoundthat250,000long-haulH2truckswouldrequire22,000refuelingstations(Ragonetal.

2023).Comparatively,

140,000USdieselrefuelingstations

alreadyexisttoservetheapproximately

sevenmillionmediumandheavy-dutytrucks

ontheroad.

BEVswillalsorequireasignificantinvestmentinchargingstationstosupporttruck

electrification.Despiteadensepreexistingelectricitygridnationwide,substantial

upgradeswilllikelyberequiredbeforebeingabletoaccommodateheavy-duty

charging.Furthermore,onlyahandfulofpublicchargingstationsforheavy-duty

trucksexist.However,thelandscapeischanging.Forinstance,BP

recentlyacquired

TravelCentersofAmerica

,whichhas280travelcentersforheavy-dutytrucksalongmajorhighways,addingtothemorethan8,000off-highwaylocationsthatitalready

owns.BPplanstobuildheavy-dutyfastchargersfortrucks(investing$1billion

inchargingstationsby2030)andcouldaddH2refuelinginfrastructurewiththe

appropriateincentives.Asnoted,NikolaalsoplanstobuildH2refuelingstationstohelpreducerangeanxietyforbuyersofitsH2-fueledtrucks.

5.2.FleetTransitionCosts

TransitioningdieselfleetstoFCEVswillalsocomewithsignificanttransitioncosts,includingtheupfrontvehiclepurchasecostsandrefuelingcosts.

FCEVsaremuchmoreexpensivethandieselequivalentsacrossmanufacturers.In

2018,theaverageClass8dieseltruckcost

$117,430

.Nikolaexecutivesreportedan

averageFCEVsellingpriceof$351,000.However,theiraverageproductioncostsare(atthesesmallvolumes)

$679,000

,resultinginahugelosspertruck.AlthoughtheH2truckcostswillalmostcertainlyfallassupplychainissuesarealleviatedandvolumespickup,thatstillpresentsalargebarrierforbothproducersandconsumers,anditisunclearatwhatpointtheywillachievecostparity.

6Optimalimplementationofthisstrategywillalsorequiresignificantcoordinationbetweendifferentlevelsofgovernmentandacrossstates.

ExploringHydrogen’sRoleinHeavy-DutyTrucking7

EveninplaceswhereH2infrastructureexists,fuelisstillprohibitivelyexpensive,withCaliforniatruckersfacingprices

upto$36/kg

,muchofthiscausedbyanunderutilizedcapacity.TheTCO