韓國央行-貨幣政策報(bào)告執(zhí)行摘要（2024年9月）（英）

ExecutiveSummary

[RecentEconomicandFinancialDevelopments]

mLookingateconomicandfinancialdevelopmentsathomeandabroadbetweenFebruaryandAugust2024andattheoutlooksforthesedevelopments,theglobaleconomyisexpectedtocontinueitsmodestgrowth,affectedbythesustainedslowingtrendofinflationandthecontinuedeasingofmonetarypolicystancesinmajorcountries.However,uncertaintiesregardingtheireconomictrendshaveincreasedsomewhat.

Asforglobalfinancialmarkets,pricevariableshavefluctuatedsignificantly,influencedmainlybyashiftinexpectationsformajorcountries’monetarypolicystancesandbyrisk-offsentiment.U.S.TreasurybondyieldsandtheU.S.dollarindexcontinuedtorise,butfellsignificantlyasexpectationsforaratecutbytheU.S.Fedstrengthened.Afteraperiodofsignificantincrease,globalstockpricesshowedasharpswingenteringAugust2024asrisk-offsentimentsubstantiallystrengthenedandthenreturnedduetoconcernsaboutaU.S.economicslowdownandtheunwindingoftheyencarrytrade.

Theglobaleconomyandfinancialmarketswillbeinfluencedbydisinflationandbymonetarypoliciesinmajoreconomies,aswellasbydevelopmentsinriskssurroundingtheMiddleEastandbythepoliticalsituationsinkeycountries.

@Thedomesticeconomyhascontinuedwithitsdivergencebetweendomesticdemandandexports,asexportshavecontinuedtogrowvigorouslywhiledomesticdemandhasrecoveredataslowerpacethan

Globaleconomicgrowthoutlook1)

(YoY,%)

2023

2024

2025e

Year

H1

H2e

H1

H2Year

Global

economy

3.2

3.2

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.23.2

U.S.

2.5

3.0

1.9

2.4

1.6

1.91.8

Euroarea

0.4

0.4

1.1

0.8

1.5

1.61.5

China

5.2

5.0

4.7

4.8

4.4

4.54.4

Japan

1.7

-0.9

1.5

0.4

1.8

0.41.1

Yeare

Note:1)FiguresaretheforecastasofAugust2024.

Sources:BankofKorea,Statisticsbureausofindividualcountries,Bloomberg.

U.S.interestrates,globalstockpriceindexanddollarindex

130

120

110

100

90

80

MSCIGlobalMarketsIndex1)(left)DXYIndex(left)

U.S.TreasuryNote(10-year)yield(right)(%)

21.1722.1723.1724.17

5

4

3

2

1

0

Note:1)January1,2021=100.

Source:Bloomberg.

RealGDPgrowthoutlook1)2)

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

QoQ(left)YoY(right)

(%)(%)

21.IIII22.IIII23.IIII24.IIII25.I

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Notes:1)FiguresintheshadedarearepresentforecastsasofAugust2024.

2)Figuresfor2023and2024arebasedonpreliminaryfigures.Source:BankofKorea.

i

ExecutiveSummary

ii

expected.GDPgrowthincreasedsignificantlyinthefirstquarter,withexportsmaintainingstronggrowthanddomesticdemandeasingitssluggishnesssomewhat,butthenwentthroughcorrectionsinthesecondquarterduetothelapseoftemporaryfactors.Startinginthethirdquarter,consumptionhasbeenrecoveringataslower-than-expectedpacewhileexportshaveremainedstrongandfacilitiesinvestmenthasshiftedtoanincrease.Meanwhile,thelabormarketisfavorableoverallastheunemploymentrateremainsatalowlevel,althoughtheincreaseinthenumberofpersonsemployedisgraduallyslowing.

Goingforward,thedomesticeconomyisprojectedtocontinueitstrendofmoderategrowth,supportedbyagradualrecoveryindomesticdemandduetoimprovedhouseholdrealincomesandincreasedcorporateinvestmentcapacity,whileexportscontinuetheirrobustgrowth.TheGDPgrowthrateisexpectedtobe2.4%in2024and2.1%in2025.

Domesticinflationhasmaintaineditsslowngtrend.Thecoreinflationratehasremainedsteadyinthelow2%range,whiletheconsumerpriceinflationratedeclinedto2.0%inAugust,affectedbythereducedextentoftheincreaseinpetroleumandagriculturalproductprices.Inflationexpectationsamonghouseholdshavealsofallentotheupper2%range.

Lookingahead,inflationisexpectedtoremainstableowingtomodestdemandpressureandtothebaseeffectfromthesharprisesinglobaloilandagriculturalproductpriceslastyear.Consumerpriceinflationisprojectedtobe2.5%in2024and2.1%in2025.

④Indomesticfinancialandforeignexchangemarkets,pricevariableshaveshownhighvolatility,influenced

Inflationoutlook1)

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

CPIinflationCoreinflation2)

(YoY,%)(YoY,%)

21.IIII22.IIII23.IIII24.IIII25.I

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Notes:1)FiguresintheshadedarearepresentforecastsasofAugust2024.

2)Excludingfoodandenergy.

Sources:BankofKorea,StatisticsKorea.

mainlybyglobalfinancialmarketdevelopments.Long-termKoreanTreasurybondyieldsrosegraduallyduetoconcernsoverapossibledelayintheU.S.Fed’sratecut,buttheyhavefallensignificantlydrivenbygrowingexpectationsofmonetarypolicypivotsathomeandabroad.TheKoreanwontoU.S.dollarexchangerateroseremarkably,boostedbyincreasinggeopoliticalrisks,buthasfallensubstantiallystartinginlateAugustduelargelytotheweakeningoftheU.S.dollarandthestrengtheningoftheJapaneseyenandothercurrenciesofneighboringcountries.

Meanwhile,housingpricesinSeoulanditssurroundingareashaveincreasedatafasterpaceafterhavingshiftedtoariseinJune,andtransactionvolumeshavealsogrown,whilethedownwardtrendintherestofthecountryhascontinued.Consequently,householdloanshavesustainedtheirgrowthatahighlevelsincethesecondquarter,althoughtheyhaddeclineduntilthefirstquarter.

Regardingfuturefinancialandforeignexchangemarketmovements,thereisagrowingriskoffinancialimbalances,includingthecontinuedhighgrowthofhouseholdloans.Additionally,thepotentialforcreditrisksamongsomefinancialandconstructioncompaniesremainsduetoacontractionintheconstructionindustryandtheongoingrestructuringofrealestateprojectfinancing(PF).Furthermore,externaluncertaintiesstillremainhigh,regardingthepathofratecutsbytheU.S.FederalReserve,theU.S.presidentialelection,andthepotentialforescalationintheconflictsintheMiddleEast.Therefore,itisnecessarytocloselymonitordevelopmentsrelatedtotheserisks.

Domesticinterestrates,stockpricesandexchangerates

KoreaTreasuryBonds(3-year)Corporatebonds(AA-,3-year)

3,000

2,800

2,600

2,400

2,200

2,000

1,800

KOSPI(left)

KRWperUSD(right)(1980.1.4=100)(KRW/USD)

1,500

1,450

1,400

1,350

1,300

1,250

1,200

6

5

4

3

2

(%)(%)

6

5

4

3

2

23.1724.17

23.1724.17

Sources:BankofKorea,KoreaFinancialInvestmentAssociation,KoscomCorporation.

Rateofincreaseinapartmentprices

0.8

0.4

0.0

-0.4

-0.8

-1.2

)

——Seoul

(WoW,%)Gyeonggi-doProvince(WoW,%——Non-Seoulmetropolitanarea

18192021222324

0.8

0.4

0.0

-0.4

-0.8

-1.2

Source:KoreaRealEstateBoard.

Changesinhouseholdloansbydeposit-takingbanks1)2)

30

20

10

0

-10

Housing-relatedloans(MoM,trillionwon)

OtherloansTotal(MoM,trillionwon)

21.1722.1723.1724.17

30

20

10

0

-10

Notes:1)IncludingmortgagetransfersbyKoreaHousingFinanceCorporation.

2)FiguresforJuly2024arebasedonbanklendingtothe

householdsector(BankofKoreaadvancedestimate).

Source:BankofKorea,KoreaHousingFinanceCorporation.

iii

ExecutiveSummary

iv

[MonetaryPolicyImplementationandOutlook]

回Inlightofthesepolicyconditions,theBankofKoreahasbeenmaintainingtheBaseRateat3.50%sinceFebruary2024,whilecloselymonitoringtheslowingtrendofinflation,thetrade-offsamongvariouspolicyvariables,suchasgrowthandfinancialstability,monetarypolicyoperationsinmajorcountries,anddevelopmentsingeopoliticalrisks.

Specifically,attheAprilandMaymeetingsin2024,althoughinflationcontinuedtoslow,theupsideriskstoinflationstillpersistedduetoimprovementsingrowthandtoheightenedvolatilityinexchangerates,andgeopoliticalriskswereongoing.Accordingly,itwasdeemedappropriatetomaintaintheBaseRateatarestrictivelevelof3.50%whileassessingdomesticandinternationalpolicyconditions.

Subsequently,thedecisionstomaintaintheBaseRateat3.50%attheJulyandAugust2024meetingswerebasedonthefollowingreasons.Althoughinflationdidcontinueitsdownwardtrendandtherecoveryindomesticdemandwasmodest,householddebt,whichhasbeenincreasingrapidly,wasexpectedtoincreasesignificantlyinAugust.Therefore,itwasneededtofurthermonitortheimpactonfinancialstabilityoffactorssuchastrendsinhousingpricesintheSeoulmetropolitanareaandhouseholddebt,governmentmeasuresconcerningthehousingmarket,changesinglobalrisk-offsentiment,andvolatilityinforeignexchangemarkets.

回TheBankofKoreausesvariouspolicyinstrumentstofacilitatecreditflowsandtostabilizefinancialandforeignexchangemarkets.Consideringtheongoing

BankofKoreaBaseRate1)

4.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.0

(%)(%)

(Jan.23)(Nov.22)

(Oct.22)(Aug.22)

(Nov.18)(Jul.19)

(Jul.22)

(Oct.19)

(Nov.17)

(May.22)(Apr.22)

(Mar.20)

(Jan.22)(Nov.21)

(May.20)

(Aug21)

1718192021222324

4.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.0

Note:1)FiguresinparenthesesrefertothemonthsofBaseRate

adjustments.Source:BankofKorea.

difficultiesofvulnerableandsmallcompanies,theBankdecidedtoextendtheeffectiveperiodofatemporarymeasuretosupportsmallandmedium-sizedenterprises(SMEs)undertheBankIntermediatedLendingSupportFacility(BILSF)foranotheryear,fromJuly2024toJuly2025.Additionally,startinginSeptember2024,coveredbondswereincludedintheBankofKorea'slistofsecuritieseligibletobecollateralforloansandforguaranteeingnetsettlements,therebyexpandingthecapacitytoprovideliquiditytobankswhenitisnecessary.Furthermore,sevenassetmanagementcompaniesandsixnationalfederationsofnon-bankdeposit-takinginstitutionswerenewlyselectedaseligibleinstitutionstoparticipateinBankofKorearepurchaseagreementsforoneyear,startinginAugust2024,toenhancetheeffectivenessofmonetarypolicyandtostrengthenthefinancialmarketstabilityfunction.

CeilingandinterestratesofBankIntermediatedLendingSupportFacility1)

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

——Ceiling(left)Interestrates(right)

(trillionwon)(%)

10111213141516