高盛-華住集團(tuán)-HTHT.US-聚焦中國(guó)高韌性企業(yè)：華住集團(tuán) （HTHT）在分散的酒店業(yè)中引領(lǐng)整合 （摘要）

張啟業(yè),CFA研究了這批企業(yè)的商業(yè)護(hù)城河、歷史資本配置和回報(bào)情況，并分別提供在本報(bào)告中詳細(xì)分析了華住集團(tuán)如何憑借強(qiáng)大的品牌實(shí)力、卓越風(fēng)險(xiǎn)回報(bào)：我們認(rèn)為，華住集團(tuán)的韌性來自于中國(guó)旅游業(yè)的長(zhǎng)期常運(yùn)營(yíng)均實(shí)現(xiàn)了較高效率和良好盈利?？v觀中國(guó)的連鎖酒店業(yè)和線上高盛與其研究報(bào)告所分析的企業(yè)存在業(yè)務(wù)關(guān)系，并且繼續(xù)尋求發(fā)展這些存在可能影響本報(bào)告客觀性的利益沖突，不應(yīng)視本報(bào)告為作出投資決策的唯一因素。有關(guān)38信息披露附錄AssumingdomesticReAssumingdomesticReAssumingsustainedmodestdomesti 20.7(2035Emarginandyieldsa4.0%HWorld201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2035EBearscenarios-AssumingdomesticRevPARtodropfurtherinFY25EbeforestabilizinginFY26E,aKeyassumptionsChinaRevPARRmb234223218218218ChinahotelgrosUnit2,2001,4001,4001,4001,400EBITDAmargin%29%27%26%26%27%RevenueRmbbn23.824.124.825.827.0EBITDARmbbn6.96.6NPRmbbn3.73.6OCFRmbbn2.84.84.85.05.3ICFRmbbn(1.2)(1.2)(1.2)(1.3)(1.3)FCFRmbbn4.54.3Grossmargin%35%34%33%34%34%EBITDAmargin%29%27%26%26%27%Netmargin%16%15%14%15%15%EPSRmb/sh11.8411.4911.3012.0312.89DPSRmb/sh9.077.477.357.828.38FCFpershareRmb/sh14.2313.7113.4714.1214.97FCFyield%4.9%4.7%4.6%4.9%5.2%DIVyield%3.1%2.6%2.5%2.7%2.9%ROIC%8.7%8.3%8.2%8.7%9.2%rios-GSbasecase,assumingdomesticRemodestgrowthof+2%KeyassumptionsChinaRevPARRmb183165168163159153157180197198149172157242237238244252260ChinahotelgrosUnitn.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.8357376657231,7151,6371,5321,2441,6412,2002,2002,0001,8001,800EBITDAmargin%26%16%18%20%20%23%27%29%32%30%-2%12%4%29%29%30%31%33%34%RevenueRmbbn1.72.23.24.25.05.86.58.210.111.210.212.813.921.924.026.128.431.034.0EBITDARmbbn0.40.40.60.81.01.31.82.43.33.3(0.2)1.60.66.37.07.88.810.111.6NPRmbbn0.20.10.20.30.30.40.81.20.71.8(2.2)(0.5)(1.8)5.26.37.4OCFRmbbn0.50.50.71.11.51.72.02.53.03.30.61.31.66.37.48.5ICFRmbbn(0.5)(0.7)(1.1)(1.2)(1.1)(1.6)0.2(6.2)(6.3)(0.3)(8.1)(1.4)(0.5)(1.5)(1.2)(1.2)(1.3)(1.4)(1.4)FCFRmbbn(0.0)(0.4)(0.5)(0.3)(0.0)0.51.01.21.50.9(2.1)(0.2)(0.4)5.96.88.0Grossmargin%32%24%24%24%22%22%25%31%36%36%5%12%12%34%36%38%39%41%43%EBITDAmargin%26%16%18%20%20%23%27%29%32%30%-2%12%4%29%29%30%31%33%34%Netmargin%12%5%5%6%6%8%12%15%7%16%-21%-4%-13%19%16%17%18%20%22%EPSRmb/sh1.090.470.721.141.241.742.934.432.496.22(7.49)(1.49)(5.85)12.8412.1714.3316.7219.9723.70DPSRmb/sh-----1.07-1.082.252.36-0.14-6.599.079.3110.8712.9815.40FCFpershareRmb/sh(0.04)(1.41)(1.49)(1.09)(0.16)1.523.223.914.642.84(6.68)(0.55)(1.17)13.2814.5316.4518.7121.7825.41FCFyield%0.0%-0.5%-0.5%-0.4%-0.1%0.5%1.1%1.3%1.6%1.0%-2.3%-0.2%-0.4%4.6%5.0%5.7%6.4%7.5%8.8%DIVyield%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%0.0%0.4%0.8%0.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%2.3%3.1%3.2%3.7%4.5%5.3%ROIC%3.7%1.1%1.5%2.2%2.0%3.0%4.4%5.0%5.0%5.2%-1.9%0.3%-0.5%8.3%8.9%10.2%11.9%14.0%16.3%Blueskyscenarios-AssumingsustainedmodestdomesticRevPARgrowthtillFY35E,aconsolidateKeyassumptionsChinaRevPARRmb237238244252260316ChinahotelgrosUnit2,2002,2002,0001,8001,8001,400EBITDAmargin%29%30%31%33%34%39%RevenueRmbbn24.026.128.431.034.054.5EBITDARmbbn7.07.88.810.111.621.3NPRmbbn6.37.415.3OCFRmbbn7.48.516.2ICFRmbbn(1.2)(1.2)(1.3)(1.4)(1.4)(1.9)FCFRmbbn6.88.015.6Grossmargin%36%38%39%41%43%50%EBITDAmargin%29%30%31%33%34%39%Netmargin%16%17%18%20%22%28%EPSRmb/sh12.1714.3316.7219.9723.7048.61DPSRmb/sh9.079.3110.8712.9815.4031.59FCFpershareRmb/sh14.5316.4518.7121.7825.4149.67FCFyield%5.0%5.7%6.4%7.5%8.8%17.1%DIVyield%3.1%3.2%3.7%4.5%5.3%10.9%ROIC%8.9%10.2%11.9%14.0%16.3%28.8%US$bn806050403020Marketcap1.2Cumulativedividendpayment2035EEquityvalue46.013.79.736.413.79.736.470.157.020132024tilldate2035EMarriott(2024tilldate)Hilton(2024tilldate)Chinachainhotelro41%12%55%73%*GSdefined48%55%6%100%201320232035EUS(2023)201320232035EMarriott(2023)17.4%125Marriott(2023).54%.20239.6%2%CAGR444%CAGR27444%CAGR272035EMarriott(2023)201320232035EUS$bn25.020.015.010.05.00.70.71% 93%6%-F/ML/OFMReimbursementDH23.773%8%CAGR8%CAGR5%18%CAGR12%18%CAGR18%65%3.114%6%45%18%65%3.114%6%45%35%7%20%7%201320232035EMarriott(2023)US$bn4.54.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.0ChinaDHGrossEBITDAmargin(RHS)NetEBITDAmargin(RHS)ROIC(RHS)*GrossEBITDAmargin=EBITDA/RevenueNetEBITDAmargin=EBITDA/Rev.excl.reimbursement3.044%39%29%31%39%29%29% 29% 0.92.720%8%0.10.92%0.965%35%17%4.170%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%201320232035EMarriott(2023)Competitivelandscape(Domesticmarket)201920232030E2035ECR5%IndustryconcentrationChainroompenetration% 12%18%23%26% 26%CR5%IndustryconcentrationChainroompenetration%CR5CR5%57%73%73%Marketshareofindustryrooms%Marketshareofchainrooms%12%3%12%13%5%13%8%17%17%18%18% 17% 24%-Bysegmentmarketshare%(GSdefined)Luxury1%1%3%3%Luxury13%High-end1%3%4%4%High-end40%Mid-end5%10%14%17%Mid-end8%Economy3%5%8%9%Economyn.a.-Bysegmentchainshare%(GSdefined)Luxury1%2%5%4%Luxury34%High-end5%7%7%7%High-end48%Mid-end15%17%22%23%Mid-end10%Economy15%16%21%21%Economyn.a.MultiMulti-brandStrategy(Domesticmarket)201920232030E2035E202371%75%77%72%No.ofbrandsTotal31brands(2023)71%75%77%72%83%80%83%84%-TOP3brandsroomsas%ofgroup83%80%83%84%97%93%95%96%-TOP5brandsroomsas%ofgroup97%93%95%96%-TOP10brandsroomsas%ofgroupTotal32brands58%58%81%81%40%58%81%Singlebrandmarketshare%BrandSegment2%4%1%3%6%7% 7%9%11%2%4%2%4%1%3%6%7% 7%9%11%2%4%5%HantingJiHotelOrangeEconomyMidscaleMidscaleBrandSegmentBrandSegmentCourtyardMarriot*FairfieldCourtyardMarriot*FairfieldHigh-endHigh-endMid-end14%15%8%TOP1Brand(ofchainrooms)TOP2Brand(ofchainrooms)TOP3Brand(ofchainrooms)HantingJiHotelOrangeEconomyMidscaleMidscale10%11%3%11%13%4%16%14%6%16%15%7%CourtyardMarriot*FairfieldHigh-endHigh-endMid-end17%17%19%9%HWorldHWorldCOMPANY(NASDAQ:HTHT/1179.HK)BusinessModel-HotelRoomPortfolio(Grouptotal)201920232030E2035ENo.ofhotelrooms'0005379121,8652,336886275372,307291,83728-886275372,307291,83728-Domestic-Overseas-Marriott(NASDAQ:MAR)2023'0001,597US972Others625HotelroomgrowthCAGR%Churnrate% 17%14%11%5%FY16-19FY19-23FY23-30FY30-35 7%9%2%2%4%FY17-23Asset-heavyroom%Leased/owned16%11%5%3%Leased/owned1%Asset-lightroom%Franchised/manachised84%89%95%97%Franchised/managed99%Segmentationmix%LuxuryHigh-endMid-endEconomy1%5%2%8%3%8%2%7%LuxuryHigh-endMid-endEconomy29%78%17%38%52%27%67%42%48%38%52%27%67%42%48%-20237~8%20192023~9%(2023)2030E2035ERevenue&20237~8%20192023~9%(2023)2030E2035EExcl.reimbursementFranchisetakeExcl.reimbursementRoomnightschanneldistribution%82%63%18%82%63%18%-DirectCRS-OTA~90%60%+~10%Group/US125/128RevPar(US$)MainlandGroup/US125/128-RevPargrowthCAGR%7%5%2%3%FY16-19FY19-23FY23-30FY30-351%/1%FY17-23GroupRevenue(US$mn)GroupRevenueexcl.reimbursement(US$mn)1,6231,5693,0892,8925,5534,9937,5666,66923,7136,300-GroupRevenuegrowthCAGR%-GroupRevenueexcl.reimbursementgrowthCAGR%18%19%FY16-1917%17%FY19-239%8%FY23-306%6%FY30-352%4%FY17-23-Asset-heavyrev.contribution%Leased/owned69%63%44%34%Leased/owned7%-Asset-lightrev.contribution%Franchised/manachised31%37%56%66%Franchised/managed93%GroupEBITDA(US$mn)4909072,0592,9654,068-GrossEBITDAmargin%30%29%37%39%17%-NetEBITDAmargin% Excl.reimbursement 31% 31% 41% 44%65%HWorlddomestictotal&3corebrandshotelrooms(k)2,30723-35CAGRHWorlddomestictotal&3corebrandshotelrooms(k)2,30723-35CAGR RevPAR(Rmb)vs.Industry5.1%vs.-2.1%23-35CAGR2.2%vs.1.3%15-19CAGR6.7%vs.1.3%3CoreBrandsOrange~5%midscaleshareJiHotel~11%midscaleshareHanting~7%economyshareRevPARpremium&outpacinggrowthvs.Industry15-19CAGR26%15-19CAGR26%19-23CAGR17%23-35CAGR11%F/Mroomscontribution%EBITDAGrowth%Margin%4,230No.ofhotelsEconomyMidscaleUpscaletoluxuryDHChinaRevPAR(RHS)4,2304,00009,3948,543O7,8306,7899,3948,543O7,8306,789Adjustedstrategytofranchisees5,6185,618Openedfirst(formerlynamed1,4251,0353,2692,7631,9953,7461,4251,0353,2692,7631,9953,746Openedfirsteconomy4382366752667526024022020020052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021FirstFirstmoverineconomysegmentMulti-brandsformid-to-upscalesegmentFurtherpenetrateintoupscalesegmentUpscale,21Upscale,21,2%OthermidscaleOthermidscalebrands,90,10%Starway,56,6%Orange,69,8%Othereconomybrands,88Hanting,318,36%JiHotel,244,28%('000)35030025020050020192023CAGR31824%24421513%15113411610593-3%55-9%20%7%244145150HomeInn(BTG)7Days(Jinjiang)JiHomeInn(BTG)7Days(Jinjiang)JiHotel(HWorld)Vienna(Jinjiang)Mid-scaleLavande(Jinjiang)Economy30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%('000)8006004002000Top-3brandsOtherbrands1,01388688629%58%47330847%71%42%53%82%HWorldJinjiangBTGGreentreeHWorldJinjiangBTGAtourGHGTongcheng(OTA)Avg.FY20-23CAGRmembers/hotelFY20-23CAGRmembers/hotel250(mn)23515%22810%252002007%247%21522152635002019202020212022202380%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%~70%~70%63%63%54%33%63%63%54%33%HWorldJinjiangBTGAtourGHG(asof2021)UnopenedhotelsinpriConversion%frompipelinetoopening000.000.050.100.150.200.25 BlendedRevParYoY%-4%EconomyHanting(HWorld)HomeInn(BTG)7Days(Jinjiang)HWorldmidscaleHWorldupscale~0.210.15-0.17~0.21~0.19~0.190.18-0.200.20-0.25 BlendedADRYoY%Same-storeADRYoY%-3%-4%-2%1ppt-1ppt-2ppt-4ppt-5pptBlendedOcc.YoYptsSame-storeOcc.HWorldJinjiangBTGAtourIndustryEconomy(tier-3/belowc6.0Years>5.0>5.0>5.0>5.0>5.05.04.03.04.34.14.14.33.03.03.62.00.0CrystalAtourSAtour3.5HamptonUrCoveJiHotelOrangeAtourLightLavandeViennaHomeInnHomeInnHantingJinjiangHomeInnOrange(Hilton)(Hyatt)HotelBusinessPlusInnHTHTHTHTAtourDomesticRevPARyoy/vs.FY19HWorldJinjiangBTGGreenTreeAtourIndustry20%10% 50%40%30%20%10% 80%60%40%20% 22%20152016201720182019202020212022202355%No.ofdomestichotelsyoy40%40%23%21%23%21%2015201620172018201920202021202295%Totalrevenueyoy/vs.FY1995%Totalrevenue26%24%22%26%24%22%201520162017201820192020202120222023CoreEBITDAandmarginmmAtourcoreEBITDAAtourmarginHWorldcoreEBITDAJinjiangcoreEBITDABTGcoreEBITDAmmAtourcoreEBITDAAtourmarginHWorldmarginJinjiangmarginBTGmarginGreenTreemargin60.0%50.0%40.0%30.0%mn)60.0%50.0%40.0%30.0%33.9%30.2%29.3%29.1%4,00030.2%29.3%29.1%....26.8%20.0%10.0%9.0%2,0001,000 26.8%20.0%10.0%9.0%201520162017201820192020202120222023Anti-graftcampaignImprovedmacroandacceleratedRevPARgrowthTradewarProlongedpandemicReopening&pent-updemandHotelroomsupplybysegmentfrom2013-2035E(mn)Luxury(equivalentto5-star)High-end(e13-19CAGR19-23CAGR23-35CAGROverallOverall4.6%-1.6%3.2%Luxury0.2%4.0%3.4%High-end15.6%3.6%4.5%Mid-end14.2%5.9%4.9%Economy2.1%-5.6%1.9%201320162017201820192020RevPARgrowthbysegmentfrom2013-2035E(Rmb,%)Luxury(equivalentto5-star)High-end(equivalentto4-star)Mid-end(equivalentto3-star)Economy(equivalentto2-star)IndustryRevPARIndustryOcc.rate%(RHS)OverallLuxuryHigh-endMid-endEconomy13-19CAGR19-23CAGR23-35CAGR0.1%1.3%1.5%0.1%1.3%1.5%1.1%1.0%0.4%-1.8%-3.6%-3.9%-4.4%-0.2%-1.8%-3.6%-3.9%-4.4%7006005004003002000Rmb60%62%60%60%58856%58852%51%52%53152253752%51%52%531522494X46445546428225718925718922616221515522616221515521117617017617015215214514570%60%50%40%30%20%0%2013201920232024E2025E2030E2035ELodgingbookingTAMbychannel(Chinavs.US2023,USDbn)Onlinebooking-OTAOnlinebooking-DirectOfflinebooking19-23CAGR-5.2%0.7%19-23CAGR-5.2%0.7%7.9%-12.9%23-35CAGR4.9%5.3%8.3%2.