2023年宜家未來(lái)城市交通洞察報(bào)告（英文版）-IKEA

?InterIKEASystemsB.V.2023

FutureofUrbanMobility

InsightssharedbyIKEA?

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?InterIKEASystemsB.V.2023

Aboutthisreport

Thisreportcompilesinsightsonhowthemobilityofpeople,goodsandretailingcouldchangewithincities.

Thefocusoftheprojectisurbanmobility-themovementof

peopleandgoodswithincitiesandtheirimmediatemetropolitan

areas.

TheinputforthisreportcomesfromagroupofexpertsinurbanmobilitywhocametogetherintheIKEAFutureofUrbanMobilityAdvisoryCommunity(IFMAC).

ThegeographicscopeisWesternEurope,theUnitedStates,ChinaandIndia.

SomeoftheviewsexpressedinthisreportmaynotbeendorsedbyallthemembersoftheIFMAC.

WhyIKEAcreatedthisreport?Becauseweseecitiesallovertheworldarechangingrapidlywhenitcomestomobility.

IKEAseekstounderstandtheeffectofthesechanges.Byexploringtheglobalchangeinurbanmobility,wehavecreatedapointof

viewforIKEA.Wearehappytosharetheseinsights,soyoucancreateyours.

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EuropeUSAChina/India

TheIKEAFutureofMobility

AdvisoryCommunity(IFMAC)

Whyacommunity?

?UrbanMobilityisanimportanttopicforIKEAtodayandinthefuture.Forthatreason,weareinterestedincreatingrelationshipwithexpert

networksinthisarea.CreatingIFMACgavethemembersanopportunitytoconnectandlearnfromeachotherwhileIKEAbenefitsfromthe

knowledge,interactionwiththeexpertsandcreatinglong-termrelations.

?TheIFMACgaveIKEAachancetocapturethediversityofviewsamongmultipledimensionsofurbanmobility-fromurbanlogisticsto

consumers/behaviortodata/platforms

?TheIFMACwasaplatformtoexposedivergentviews,tensionsanduncertainties,aswellaspointsofagreement

JohnMoavenzadeh,IFMACChair

TheIMFACwasfacilitatedbyJohnMoavenzadeh,FounderandManagingPartnerofMobilityNexusLLCandExecutiveDirectorofMITMobilityInitiative,FormerlyHeadofMobility,World

EconomicForum

FutureofUrbanMobility-InsightssharedbyIKEA

lanning/Cities,PolicyDPrmPiatalatfos,olyTechnology,UrbanLogisticsSustainability

MichaelHurwitz

PartnerEnergy,Mobility&Innovation,PAConsulting

TiffanyChu

ChiefofStafftotheMayorofBoston

SarahThornton

AutonomySystemsEngineer,Nuro

DaizongLiu

ChinaDirectorforSustainableCities,WRIRossCenter

Planning/Cities,MicromobilityPlanning/Cities,Consumers/BehaviorConsumers/Behavior,BusinessStrategyConsumers/Behavior

MarcoTeBr?mmelstroet

ProfinUrbanMobility

Futures,UniofAmsterdam

JinhuaZhao

FacultyDirector,MITMobilityInitiative

SherylConnelly

ChiefFuturist,

FordMotorCompany

MichaelDunne

FounderandCEO,ZoZoGo

?InterIKEASystemsB.V.2023

usesStateSustaanrgaaatoso,Pa,nnin/iCtetaato/PrmU,aostcnLicongySustainability

SophiePunte

IKEAFutureofMobilityAdvisoryCommunity(IFMAC)

ManagingDirectorPolicy,WeMeanBusinessCoalition

RobinChase

Founder,Zipcar;Founder,NUMO

MattiasWinkenbach

Director,MIT

MegacityLogisticsLab

ChetanMaini

Co-Founder&ViceChair,SunMobility

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8ESSENTIALURBANMOBILITYCONCEPTS

Whatdoweneedtounderstand

aboutthemobilitysystem?

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TheIFMACexploredeightessential

urbanmobilityconcepts

01

Mobilityisasystem.

02

Infrastructureshapesmobility.

03

Behaviorandnormsarecritical.

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Integrationistheholygrail.

07

Bewareofinduceddemand.

05

Technologyisnotapanacea.

04

Mobilityisexpensive.

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Citiesareshapingtheirownfuture.

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Concept01

Mobilityisasystem.

Mobilityisdeliveredbymanystakeholders-citizens,

governments,businesses-operatingwithdifferentandoftencompetingincentives.Themobilitysystemis

interconnectedwithothercomplexsystems,suchasenergy,infrastructure,health,etc.Aswelooktothefuture,weshouldcollectivelyaimtobuildamobilitysystemthatissafe,cleanandinclusive.

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Mobility-themovementofpeopleandgoods-

isacomplexanddiversesystem

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Themobilitysystemcanbedefined

throughdifferentperspectives

Physical

Vehicles

Energy/Fuels

Infrastructure

StakeholderFramework

Business

?TraditionalMobility(Boeing,Toyota,DHL)

?BigTech(Alphabet,Amazon,Uber)

?RelatedIndustries:Energy,Finance,Insurance,Infrastructure,etc.

?StartupsandNewEntrants

Government

?InternationalGovernance(e.g.,ICAO)

?National

?State

?Municipal

CivilSociety

?NGOs(Greenpeace,roadsafety,etc)

?IOs(e.g.,WBCSD,WEF,WorldBank)

?Academic/Research

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ScenarioPlanningFunctionalFramework

Technological

Behavioral

Financial

Environmental

Political/Regulatory

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Variedperspectivesonwhythemobilitysystem

isimportant-butaccessisatthecore

Access=mobilityand/orconnectivityand/orproximity

Mobilityprovidesaccess…topeople,ideas,products,and

employmentopportunities.Bettermobilityinanurbanarea

translatestoamoreefficientandproductivelabormarket.Somearguemobilitydoesn’tmatteratall–it’sonlyaccessthatmatters.

Mobilityaffectsqualityoflife–forbetterandforworse.Streets

shouldbeplaceswherepeoplewanttobe.Wehaveahumanneedtotravel,toexperience,toexplore.

Mobilitymattersbecausethenegativeexternalitiesmatter.

Mobilityisthetopgreenhousegasemitterinmanycountries,thetopcauseofdeathforyoungpeople,apovertytrap.

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Thecorechallengeisthatthecurrent

mobilitysystemisnotsustainable

Globaldemandformobilityisgrowing,buttoday’smobility

systemcannotaccommodatetomorrow’smobilitydemand.Somenewtechnologiescouldmaketheproblemworse,notbetter.

SustainableMobility

Sustainabledevelopmentisadevelopmentthatmeets

theneedsofthepresentwithoutcompromisingtheabilityoffuturegenerationstomeettheirownneeds”

DrGroHarlemBrundtland,1987

CleanSafeInclusive

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CleanMobility

ClimateChange,PollutingEmissions,Noise,BallastWaterContamination,MaterialsConsumptionandEnd-of-Life

2019USGHGemissionsbysector

2010globalGHGemissionsbysector

HeatProduction

FutureofUrbanMobility-InsightssharedbyIKEASource:

IPCC

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SafeMobility

VehicleFatalitiesandInjuriesduetoCollisions/Accidents,Security/TerrorismandCyberhacking

2016EstimateRoadTrafficDeathRate(deaths/100,000)byCountry

?Approximately1.35millionpeopledieeachyearasaresultofroadtrafficcrashes.

?93%oftheworld'sfatalitiesontheroadsoccurinlow-andmiddle-incomecountries,eventhoughthesecountrieshaveapproximately60%oftheworld'svehicles.

?Roadtrafficinjuriesaretheleadingcauseofdeathforchildrenandyoungadultsaged5-29years.

DeathRate

<10.0

10.1-20.0

20.1-30.0

>30.0

NotapplicableNodata

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WHO

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InclusiveMobility

Affordable(bothmoneyandtime),Reliable/Predictable,Equitable.

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?Harvardstudy:Transportationemergesaslargestfactorinoddsofescapingpoverty.

?NYUstudy:NYareaswithsomebutinsufficientaccesstopublictransportationhadhighestunemploymentandlowestincome

?Berkeleystudy:Morethanhalfofrespondentssignificantlyreducedtheiruseofpublictransportationduetounreliableservice

Source:

TheImpactsofNeighborhoodsonIntergenerationalMobility

;Mobility,Economic

OpportunityandNewYorkCityNeighborhoods,Berkeley:

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/blogs/view/gov-reasons-riders-abandon-public-transit.html

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Concept02

Infrastructureshapesmobility.

Theroleofthebuiltenvironmentincitiesiscritical.

Infrastructureisthestartingpointforourexpectationsandnormsonmobility.Apavedsprawlingcityisamorecar-dependentcity.Adenseconcentratedcityenablesamoreefficientpublictransportationsystemandotherformsofsharedmobility.

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Howwebuildonagiven

amountoflandmatters

Village:Sienna,Italy-Population:30,000HighwayInterchange:Houston,USA-Population:0

Samearea

FutureofUrbanMobility-InsightssharedbyIKEASource:

BuildingBetter,BuildingBeautifulCommission

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Automotiveinfrastructureconsumesa

significantpercentageofurbanarea

Roads,parking(surface,on-street,structures),petrolstations,etc.consumealotofland.

?ParkingareainLosAngelesisgreaterthantheentiresurfaceareaofManhattan

?Inadditiontothe2,450acresofroadwayinManhattan,nearly1,000moreacres—anareaaboutthesizeofCentralPark—isoccupiedbyparkinggarages,gasstations,

carwashes,cardealershipsandautorepairshops.

?ThereisnodecisiveinventoryofparkingintheUnitedStates.Estimatedbetween105millionand2billionparkingspotsintheUnitedStates(for250millioncars).The

realityisprobablyatthemidpointaround1billion.

?Surfaceparkinglotsareestimatedat5%ofurbanareaintheUS.

?DesMoines,Iowa,hasmorethanninetimesasmanyparkingspacesperacreashouseholdsperacre.

“Parisianpublicspaceisrare,precious,andveryuseful.Itbelongstoeveryoneanditcan’tbecapturedbyoneuniqueusage,whichistheautomobile.Today,still,50percentofpublicspaceinParisis

consecratedtothecar,whetherit’sontheroadorparked.Thatrepresentsjust10percentoftrips.”

DavidBelliard,AdjunctMayorforTransportationandPublicSpace,Paris,Sept2021

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FutureofUrbanMobility-InsightssharedbyIKEASource:

Curbed,LosAngeles

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Urbanstreetsarepublicspaces

Theautomobilehasprofoundlyshapedthedesignandthefeelofthosepublicspaces.

ParkAvenue,NewYorkToday

ParkAvenue,NewYorkcirca1910

Source:

NewYorkTimes

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Private-usecarsaregenerallyan

inefficientuseofpreciousstreetspace

200PeopleinCars200PeopleinCars200PeopleonaBus200PeopleonaTram

50Cars-55sq.ft./person1Bus-9sq.ft./person50Bicycles-15sq.ft./person

FutureofUrbanMobility-InsightssharedbyIKEASource:

NewYorkTimes

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Concept03

Behaviorandnormsarecritical.

Ourbehaviorsareshapedbynormsthatwehave

learnedtoaccept.Takingthesubwayisperfectly

acceptableforwealthypeopleinmostEuropeancitiesandinsomeAmericancities,butfewwealthyMexicansusetheMexicoCitymetrosystem.Ourbeliefstructureisthattimeintraveliswastedtime.Weseeminglywantourpackagesinstantaneouslyandwewanttoteleport.Weacceptthatit’sokfor3000peopleadaytobekilledontheworld’sroads,yetwewouldbeoutragedand

horrifiedifasmallfractionofthosewerekilledjustonedayinouraviationsystem.

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Mobilitydecisionsarenotdrivenpurelyby

functionalorutilityconsiderations–social

normsandbehavioralbiasesaresignificant…

SocialNorms:Rulesorexpectationsbasedonsharedbeliefsofaspecificculturalorsocialgroup,suchas:

?DriversLicenseasaRightofPassage

?BuyingFirstCarasSignofFinancialIndependence

?CarPride:Socialstatusandself-imagearelinkedtoautomotiveownership

y

BehavioralBiases:Systematicwaysthehumanmind

deviatesfromrationalchoicetheory.Eachofthefollowingbiasesworktowardpersonalvehicleownershipandawayfromothermobilityoptions:

?ConfirmationBias:Focusoninformationthatsupportsone’spreconceptions

?StatusQuoBias:Findingitmorecomfortabletokeepthingsastheyare

?HaloEffect:Positiveattributesareexaggerated,andnegativeattributesareignored

?AmbiguityEffect:Preferringknownriskstounknownrisks

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FutureofUrbanMobility-InsightssharedbyIKEASource:

BostonConsultingGroup

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…yetthereisempiricalevidence

thatowningisinherentlyvaluablebeyondtheusageofthecar

MITresearchersestimatedthevalueofprivatecarownershipanduseinfourUSmetroareas(Chicago,Dallas,SeattleandWashingtonDC)usingonlinediscretechoiceexperiments.Keyfindings:

?Onaverage,peoplewouldneedtobepaid$11,197togiveupaccesstotheir

privatelyownedvehicleforoneyear,whichisatleastasmuchasestimatesoftheaveragetotalprivatecostofvehicleownership(~$9,000).

?Morethanhalfofthisvalueisnon-usevalue–suchastheoptiontotravel

wheneverorwhereverneededatamoment’snoticeandthestatusthatcomesfromowningone’sownvehicle–beyondtheusevalueofgettingfromAtoB.

?Thisnon-usevaluewasoverthreetimeshigherduringtheCovid-19pandemic

?Thesefindingsemphasizetheneedtoprovidevalueandconvenienceifalternativemobilitysolutionsaretobewidelyadopted.

Source:

NatureSustainability

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Youngerconsumersarelessinterestedinvehicle

ong-term,probablyyes,butCovidhasimpactedopinions)

ownership

(l

Percentageofride-hailusersthatquestionwhethertheyneedtoownavehiclegoingforward(bygeneration)

But:

?Carownershipremainsstrongamongyoungergenerations

?CarsharingserviceslikeCar2Go,ReachNowandMavenhaveretreatedfromcities

?Covidcertainlydroveinterestincarownershipupacrossmulitiplegeographies

PercentageofconsumersintendingtoacquireavehicletoavoidpublictransportationduringCovid:

Germany:11%,Japan:10%,US:14%,Rep.ofKorea:13%,China:23%,

SoutheastAsia:31%,India:45%

2021StudyfromCenterforAutomotiveeMobilityInnovationatCa’FoscariUniversityofVenice:

?61.7%ofunder30-year-oldswouldgiveupcarownershipifefficientpublictransportwasavailable

?Onepersonoutof5(20%)isnotinterestedinowningacar

Onaglobalbasis,28%agreethatchildrenwillnotneedto

learnhowtodrive.Fairlylinearbyagecohort-younger

peopleagreemore,olderpeopleagreeless.Acrosscountries:25%overallinChina.22%inUSA.26%inUK.17%inGermany.SherylConnelly,IFMACMember

FutureofUrbanMobility-InsightssharedbyIKEASource:

Deloitte

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WiththeexceptionoftheUnitedStates,

mostdevelopednationshavelowerCarPridethandevelopingnations

Countrycarpridefactorscore

Source:MITMobilityoftheFutureReportMobilityoftheFuture|MITEnergyInitiative,Moody,

JoannaC.,andJinhuaZhao.2019.“CarPrideandItsBidirectionalRelationswithCarOwnership:CaseStudiesinNewYorkCityandHouston.”TransportationResearchPartA:PolicyandPractice124(June):

FutureofUrbanMobility-InsightssharedbyIKEA334–353.

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“CarPride”=HowPeopleAttribute

TheirSocialStatusandPersonalImagetoOwningandUsingaCar

Databasedonaninternationalsurveyofnearly42,000respondentsacross51countriescompletedinJanuary2017

?Respondentsuseda7-pointscalefromstronglyagreetostronglydisagreetostatementssuchas“DrivingaCarMakesMeFeelSuperiortoThoseWhoDon’t”and“DrivingaCarPositivelyAffectsMyPerceptionofMyself”

?Multilevelconfirmatoryfactoranalysiswasappliedtoestablishthereliabilityandvalidityofthebinarycarpridemeasure

?MITResearchers:“Wefindthatcarprideispositivelyandsignificantly

predictiveofhouseholdcarownership.Infact,wefindthatanindividual’scarpride(attitude)isastrongerpredictorofhouseholdcarownership(behavior)thantheindividualandhouseholdsocio-demographiccharacteristicscapturedinoursurvey,includingincome.”

Source:MITMobilityoftheFutureReportMobilityoftheFuture|MITEnergyInitiative,Moody,

JoannaC.,andJinhuaZhao.2019.“CarPrideandItsBidirectionalRelationswithCarOwnership:CaseStudiesinNewYorkCityandHouston.”TransportationResearchPartA:PolicyandPractice124(June):

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Valuesandnormsshapeourbehavior,

butpricingisalsoapowerfullever

CitiessuchasLondon,Singapore,StockholmandNewYorkhaveimplemented“congestionpricing”schemeswheredriverspayforaccesstopartsofthecityatcertaintimes.Pricingschemesdoimpactmobilitybehavior.

ImpactofVariousCongestionPricingLevelsonVariousMobilityIndicatorsforNewYorkCity

VehicleHoursofDelayVehicleMilesTravelledLaneMileCongested

AverageTravelSpeed

NetworkMeasures

FutureofUrbanMobility–InsightssharedbyIKEASource:

EvaluatingtheTrafficandEmissionsImpactsofCongestionPricinginNewYorkCity

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Concept04

Mobilityisexpensive.

Mobilityisoftenthesecondmostexpensiveitemfor

consumers(afterhousing),andevenmoreexpensiveforsociety.Furthermore,consumersconsistently

underestimatethetruecostofcarownership.Inthe

UnitedStates,thelowest20%byincomepay35%of

annualincomefortransportation.Optionsthatlowerthecostforpeopleandsocietyarelikelytosucceedinthelong-term,butentrenchedmodelsandbehaviorsacttopreservethestatusquo.Thehighsocialcosts

embeddedinpassengermobilityarereflectedingoodsmobility:buying10itemson-lineandreturning9of

themisveryexpensivefortheplanet.

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InbothEuropeandtheUS,

transportationisthesecondlargestcategoryofconsumerspending

PercentofHouseholdSpendingbyCategory,UnitedStates

PercentofHouseholdSpendingonTransport,EUCountries(2018)

Percent

Transportaccountedforabout16%ofHouseholdSpendingintheUSTransportaccountedforabout13%ofHouseholdSpendinginEuropein2018

in2020,morethan90%ofthatspendingwasautomotive-related

Source:

U.S.BUREAUOFLABORSTATISTICS

;

Eurostat

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Thefinancialburdenoftransportis

greaterforlower-incomehouseholdsintheUnitedStates

TransportationSpendingRelativetoIncome:UnitedStates

Countieswhereresidentsspendover50%oftheirincomeontransportation

TransportationSpendingRelativetoIncome:Europe

FutureofUrbanMobility-InsightssharedbyIKEA

Source:/opub/reports/consumer-expenditures/2020/pdf/home.pdf.,https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/ddn-20200108-1

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Isthepersonal-useautomobilethe

bestsolutionforurbanmobility?

?Heavythereforeenergythirsty:Thetypical

passengercarweighs10-20timestheweightofthepassengersitisdesignedtomove

?Designedforextremeusecasesthereforeexpensive:Vehiclepurchasedecisionsarebiasedtorareuse-cases

?InefficientAssetUtilization:Thetypicalpassengercaristhesecondlargesthouseholdexpenditureyetsitsidle(parked)95%ofthetime

?Largefootprint:thetypicalpassengercar

consumesfarmorestreetspacethanitsoccupants

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Automakersareshiftingfrom“howcanwemakebettercars?”to“howcanwebepartofthesolutionforbettercities?”

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Thefullcostofautomotivemobility

(withexternalities)greatlyexceeds

thecosttotheuser

Ifwalking

costsyou$1

Ifcycling

costsyou$1

Iftravellingbybuscostsyou$1

Societypays$0.01

Costtouser=$1

Societypays$0.08

Societypays$1.50

Ifdriving

costsyou$1

Societypays$9.20

Coststosociety(externalities):

?Vehicle-relatedfatalitiesandinjuries

?AirPollution

?ClimateChange

?Losttimeincongestion

?Healtheffectsofsedentarymobility

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FutureofUrbanMobility-InsightssharedbyIKEASource:

TheDiscourse

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Concept05

Technologyisnotapanacea.

Ourexpectationsfornewmobilitytechnologyareoftenoverestimatedintheshort-runandunderestimatedinthelongrun.Autonomousvehiclesareagoodexample:aftermuchhypeintheearly2010s,therealityof

challengingedgecaseshasdelayedthetimelinefordeployment.Autonomousmobilitywilleventuallybedeployedatscale,butdependingonthechoiceswemake,itcouldmakecongestionincitiesbetteror

worse.

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Autonomousvehicles–andmany

mobilitytechnologies–havepassedthroughtheGartnerHypeCycle

AV’s2015

Level4AV’s2018

Expectation

AV’s2012

AV’s2021

s

InnovationTrigger

PeakofInflatedExpectations

TroughofDisillusionment

SlopeofEnlightenment

PlateauofProductivity

Time

“Wetendtooverestimatetheeffectofatechnologyintheshortrun

andunderestimatetheeffectinthelongrun.”

RoyAmara,formerPresidentoftheInstitutefortheFuture

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Autonomousvehiclesspanavariety

ofusecasesandbusinessmodels

AutonomousUrbanShuttle

AutonomousPersonalUseCar

AutonomousLongHaulTruck

UnmannedAerialSystems

AutonomousDeliveryRobot

AutonomousMiningVehicle

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Theusecaseandbusinessmodelare

particularlyimportantintheurbancontext

Personal-OwnedLow-OccupancyAV

Fleet-OwnedLow-OccupancyRobotaxi

Fleet-OwnedHigh-OccupancyAVShuttle

CovidhasloweredinterestinsharedmobilityAVShuttle

DeploymentsinChina,UScities–includingwithoutatestoperator

GMCEOMaryBarraannouncesGMwillsellpersonal-useAVs“bythemiddleofthedecade”atCES2022

Autonomousvehicles–inabestcasescenario:

?Safermobility(reducedhuman-relatederrors)

?Bettermobilityperformance(lowercongestion)

?Mobilityaccessfortheblind,disabled,elderly

Autonomousvehicles–inaworstcasescenario:

?Streetscloggedwithemptypersonal-ownedAVs

?Greatersocialisolation

?Increaseddisparityofaccessbetweenrichandpoor

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Manycompaniesarepushingthe

urbanrobo-taxishuttlevision

ZooxRobotaxi(Amazon)(4seatedpassengers)CruiseOrigin(4seatedpassengers)ZFShuttle(8seated+14standing)

FutureofUrbanMobility-InsightssharedbyIKEASource:

GeekWire

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Concept06

Integrationistheholygrail.

TheconceptofMobility-as-a-Service,offering

consumersasimplemultimodalplatformfortrip

planning,seamlessconnectionsamongdifferent

transportmodesandeasysinglepayment,remainsanimportantbutelusivegoal.Achievingintegration

requiresphysicalintegration(ofvehiclesandthebuiltenvironment),digitalintegration(ofdataplatforms,

APIs,paymentsystems)andinstitutionalintegration(ofgovernmentagencies,publictransportoperators,etc).

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Integrationisthe"HolyGrailofMobility"

Connectingphysical,digitalandinstitutionalsystemsina