2024年中國(guó)奢侈品市場(chǎng)報(bào)告 2024

2024ChinaLuxuryGoodsMarket:NavigatingTurbulentWaters

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Authorsandacknowledgments

BrunoLannesisaseniorpartnerinBain&Company’sConsumerProductsandRetailpracticesforGreaterChina,locatedinShanghai.Hecanbecontactedat

bruno.lannes@

.

WeiweiXingisapartnerinBain&Company’sConsumerProductsandRetailpracticesforGreaterChina,locatedinHongKong.Shecanbecontactedat

weiwei.xing@

.

EmmaGuisanassociatepartnerinBain&Company’sConsumerProductsandRetailpracticesforGreaterChina,locatedinShanghai.Shecanbecontactedat

emma.gu@

.

TheauthorswouldliketoexpresstheirgratitudetoSijieHuang,aconsultantinBain’sShanghaioffice.

Thisworkisbasedonsecondarymarketresearch,analysisoffinancialinformationavailableorprovidedtoBain&Companyandarangeof

interviewswithindustryparticipants.Bain&CompanyhasnotindependentlyverifiedanysuchinformationprovidedoravailabletoBain

andmakesnorepresentationorwarranty,expressorimplied,thatsuchinformationisaccurateorcomplete.Projectedmarketandfinancialinformation,analysesandconclusionscontainedhereinarebasedontheinformationdescribedaboveandonBain&Company’sjudgment,andshouldnotbeconstruedasdefinitiveforecastsorguaranteesoffutureperformanceorresults.Theinformationandanalysishereindoesnotconstituteadviceofanykind,isnotintendedtobeusedforinvestmentpurposes,andneitherBain&Companynoranyofitssubsidiaries

ortheirrespectiveofficers,directors,shareholders,employeesoragentsacceptanyresponsibilityorliabilitywithrespecttotheuseof

orrelianceonanyinformationoranalysiscontainedinthisdocument.ThisworkiscopyrightBain&Companyandmaynotbepublished,transmitted,broadcast,copied,reproducedorreprintedinwholeorinpartwithouttheexplicitwrittenpermissionofBain&Company.

Copyright?2025Bain&Company,Inc.Allrightsreserved.

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1

2024ChinaLuxuryGoodsMarket:NavigatingTurbulentWaters

AtaGlance

In2024,theChinesemainlandluxurymarketexperiencedasignificantdeclineof18%–20%,

revertingto2020levelsduetolowconsumerconfidenceandincreasedoverseasspending.

Inmanyways,thisdownturnmarkstheendoftheCovid-19artificialboostontheChinaluxurygoodsmarketasglobaltourismcontinuestorecover.

Inthiscontext,allluxurycategorieshaveunderperformed,withbeautydoingbetterandwatchesandjewelryperformingworse.Asaresult,onlyaverysmallnumberofbrandsenjoyedgrowth

inChinain2024.

Hainanhasseenanimportantdeclineinbothtrafficandsaleswhileoverseasspendinghasincreased,withJapanbeingthebigwinner.Inaddition,Daigousaleshavealsoincreased(forthefashionandleathergoodscategories).

2025isexpectedtobeflatinthemainlandmarket,withachallengingfirsthalfandanimprovingsecondhalf,drivenbythepositiveimpactofeconomicstimulusmeasuresinChina.

Inthelongerterm,themarketisexpectedtorecoveratamoderatepace,drivenbythesolidfundamentalsofChina’seconomyandthegrowthofitsmiddleclass.

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2024ChinaLuxuryGoodsMarket:NavigatingTurbulentWaters

Executivesummary

China’sluxurymarketfacedasignificantslowdownin2024,withdeterioratinggrowthastheyear

progressed.Thedownturnwasprimarilydrivenbyreduceddomesticspending,whichstemmed

fromlowconsumerconfidence,andincreasedtouristspendingabroad,particularlyinJapanand

Europe.Asthemacroeconomiclandscapecontinuestoevolve,theChinesemainlandluxurymarketisgoingthroughaphaseofuncertainty.Theresurgenceofoverseastourismisexpectedtoexertfur-therpressureondomesticluxurysalesinthecomingyears.

Lookingaheadto2025andbeyond,challengesareanticipatedtopersist.However,luxurybrands

thatleveragethisperiodforintrospection,strategicrefocusingandcreativeinnovations,andopera-tionalresetaremorelikelytonavigatethroughtheseturbulenttimessuccessfullyandultimatelyre-newtheirgrowthtrajectory.Despitecurrentdifficulties,theChinesemainlandremainsanattractivemarketforluxurybrands,suggestingthatopportunitiesforrecoveryandgrowthstillexist.

FullReport

AftertheliftingofCovid-19restrictionsinDecember2022,therewasaninitialrecoveryinthefirsthalfof2023.However,thiswasnotsustainedduetosluggishconsumerconfidence,especiallyfor

discretionaryitemssuchasluxury.Therewasalsoasurgeinoverseasspendinginnearbymarketsin2023andevenmorein2024,drivenbyinternationaltourismrecoveryandfavorableexchange

rates.Furthermore,today’sChineseconsumersarebecomingmorerationalaboutluxuryspending,showingreluctancetopurchaseamidfrequentpriceincreaseswithlimitedproductinnovationandpreferringexperienced-basedconsumption,suchastravelandoutdoor.

Asaresult,theChinesemainlandluxurymarketisundersignificantpressure,withanestimatedyear-on-yeardeclineof18%–20%(seeFigure1).

Theslowdownintensifiedthroughouttheyear,withthethirdquartershowingtheworstperformanceandaslightimprovementinthefourthquarter,mostlydrivenbyannouncementsoftheforthcomingstimulusmeasuresandtheirexpectedimpactonconsumption.

Allluxurycategorieshavefacedchallenges,thoughtheirimpactvariesbycategory.Thebeautysector—particularlyperfumes,colorcosmetics,andultra-premiumskincare—hasdemonstratedstrongerresilienceasconsumersseekemotionalandsensoryexperiences(seeFigure2).

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2024ChinaLuxuryGoodsMarket:NavigatingTurbulentWaters

Figure1:MainlandChinapersonalluxurymarketdeclinedby18%–20%in2024,drivenbylowconsumerconfidenceandincreasingoverseasshopping

MainlandChinapersonalluxurymarket(RMBbillion)

500(-18%/-20%)

400

300

200

100

0

201112131415161718192021222324E

Sources:Bain-Altagamma2024WorldwideLuxuryMarketMonitor;Bainanalysis

Figure2:Allluxurycategoriesarefacingwidespreadchallenges,withjewelryandwatchesexperi-encingthemostsignificantnegativeimpact

MainlandChinapersonalluxurymarketyear-over-yeargrowthbycategory

8%

15%–20%

10%–15%

15%–20%

5%–10%

(6)%

(10)%

Beauty

(15)%–(20)%

(15)%–(20)%

Fashionandlifestyle

(10)%–(15)%

(20)%–(25)%

Leathergoods

(10)%–(15)%

(25)%–(30)%

Jewelry

(20)%–(25)%

(28)%–(33)%

Watches

2021–222022–232023–24E

Sources:Bain-Altagamma2023WorldwideLuxuryMarketMonitor;Financialreports;Bainanalysis

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2024ChinaLuxuryGoodsMarket:NavigatingTurbulentWaters

Thefashionsegmenthasexperiencedasmallerdeclinecomparedtoleathergoods,largelyduetoitsseasonalnatureandtheimportanceofitsVeryImportantCustomer(VIC)demographic.Incontrast,leathergoodshavesufferedfromover-relianceoniconicpiecesandcarry-overswithlimited

investmentintoseasonalitemsandhigherunitprices,leavingconsumerswithlittleincentivetomakeadditionalpurchases.

Thejewelryandwatchessegmenthasfacedthemostsignificantchallengesasconsumersareshiftingtheirpreferencestowardothervalue-preservingassetsandexperiences.Jewelryhasperformedslightlybetterthanwatches,primarilyduetoitswiderangeofproductsandpricepointsfromhighjewelrytofinejewelry,whichhashigherexposuretoaspirationalconsumers.Meanwhile,thewatchmarkethasseenmorerationalbehaviorsfromChineseconsumers,compoundedbyanongoingdeclineinsecondarymarketpricesforluxurySwisswatches,whichnegativelyimpactedthevalueretentionofhigh-endtimepieces.

Hainan’sduty-freesalesdeclinedbyapproximately29%in2024,reflectingthebroaderconsumptionslowdowninChina(seeFigure3).Anapproximately15%year-on-yearreductionintrafficand

approximately15%decreaseinbasketvalueinfluencedthisdrop.Therecoveryofglobaltourism,particularlytonearbydestinationslikeJapanandSoutheastAsia,whichoffercomparabletraveltimesandcostsbutsuperiorservicesandexperiences,primarilydrovethedeclineintraffic.

Additionally,theconsumerprofileisshifting;affluentconsumerswhoweresignificantspendersduringtheCovid-19pandemicinHainanarenowtravelingabroad.Intensecompetitionfrom

domestice-commerceplatforms,especiallyinthebeautycategory,hasalsomadeHainanalessattractiveduty-freedestination.

Lookingahead,uncertaintiesremainregardingHainan’sduty-freemarket.TheimplementationofkeypoliciesforachievingtheHainanFreeTradePortisexpectedtocontinueuntil2025;atthesametime,Hainanwillcompetewithothernewdowntownduty-freeshopsinthemainlandandnearbydestinationsandneedstoimprovetheoverallluxuryexperienceforitstravelers.

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2024ChinaLuxuryGoodsMarket:NavigatingTurbulentWaters

Figure3:Duty-freesalesinHainanexperiencedaroughly29%declinein2024,drivenbyreducedtrafficandsmallerbasketvalue

MainlandChinapersonalluxurymarket(RMBbillion)

CAGR

2018192021222324E

Hainanduty-freesalesasshareoftotalmarket:

6%6%8%11%9%10%9%

Others

Hainan

duty-free

18–21

39%

36%

70%

21–22

(13)%

(11)%

(29)%

22–23

12%

11%

25%

23–24E

~(20)%

~(19)%

~(29)%

Sources:HaikouCustom;Financialreports;Analystreports;MinistryofFinance;MinistryofCommerce;MinistryofCultureandTourism;GeneralAdministrationofCustoms;StateAdministrationofTaxation;Literatureresearch;Bainanalysis

Tosummarize,China’sluxurymarketfacedasignificantdeclinein2024,affectingthevastmajorityofbrands.Thisdownturnisprimarilyattributedtolowconsumerconfidence,drivenbyconsumers’cautiousattitudetowardconsumptiongiventheeconomicuncertaintiestheyface.Interestingly,

whileVICshavedemonstratedgreaterresilience,theyhavealsobecomemoreconservativeintheirluxuryspending,optingtodiversifytheirwealthacrossabroaderrangeofassetsduringthiseconomicdownturn.Amidthiswidespreaddecline,onlyafewbrandshaveemergedaswinners;thesebrandsarecharacterizedbyhighdesirability,strongconnectionwithconsumers,builtovermanyyearsofinvestmentanddifferentiatedvaluepropositions.Theirsuccessisnotdrivenbyscale,aswesee

smallandlargebrandsamongthewinners.

Aswelooktothefuture,brandsneedtoshifttheirmindsetsfromgrabbingtheirshareofincrementalmarketgrowththroughexpansiontocompetingformarketshareinamorestableandnormalizedenvironment.Tosucceedinthisnewera,elevateddifferentiationinbranding,productinnovation,pricingstrategies,andclientexperiencewillbecrucial.

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2024ChinaLuxuryGoodsMarket:NavigatingTurbulentWaters

In2024,therewasanotablereboundinoverseasshopping,particularlyinJapan,accompaniedbysignificantgrowthinthegreymarketduetoincreasingpricedisparities.

AsChineseoverseastourismgraduallyresumed,itisestimatedthatapproximately60%ofChinesemainlandluxuryspendingoccurredwithintheChinesemainlandin2024.TherecoveryofluxuryspendingbyChinesetouristsinEuropeandAsiahasbeensignificant.Specifically,spending

abroadin2024reachedabout50%of2019levelsinEuropeandwasaround120%ofits2019levelinAsia-Pacific.

TheexchangeratebetweentheChineseyuanandtheJapaneseyenhasfurtherstimulatedluxuryconsumptioninJapan.However,theincreaseinoverseasshoppingdidnotoffsetthedeclineinonshoresales,resultinginanoveralldecreaseofabout7%intotalChineseluxurygoodsspending(seeFigure4).

Lookingahead,overseastravelandconsumptionareexpectedtocontinuetogrow.ThetrendofChinesetravelersshiftingtheirpreferencesfromshopping-focusedtourstoniche,flexible,andexperience-basedtripsisalsoanticipatedtoincreaseinthefuture.

Figure4:Theriseinoverseaspurchaseswasnotenoughtooffsetthedeclineinthemainland;overall2024Chineseluxuryspendingdecreasedbyaround7%

GeographicbreakdownforChineseluxurygoodsspending(Eurobillion)

100%

80

60

40

20

0

7693648378

20152019202120232024E

Overseas1purchase40%

MainlandChina

purchase60%

Note:1.OverseasreferstomarketsoutsidemainlandChina,includingtheHongKong,Macau,andTaiwanregionsofChina

Sources:Bain-Altagamma2023WorldwideLuxuryMarketMonitor;GlobalBlue;Bainanalysis

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2024ChinaLuxuryGoodsMarket:NavigatingTurbulentWaters

ThepricingdisparitiesbetweenluxurygoodsontheChinesemainlandandothermarkets,particularlyJapan,disruptedthemainlandmarketandplayedacrucialroleintheresurgenceofoverseasluxuryshoppingin2024.AsampleanalysisofkeyproductsacrosstheChinesemainland,France,andJapanrevealedsignificantpricedifferencesacrossvariouscategories,makingluxuryshoppingabroad

evenmoreappealing,especiallyunderfavorableexchangerates(seeFigure5).Attheyen’slowest

pointversustheRMB,thepricegapcomparedtodomesticpricesreachedasmuchas30%.These

widepricegapshavefurtherencouragedoverseasshopping,particularlyamongprice-sensitive

consumers,whichhasnegativelyimpactedbrandloyaltyandrecruitmentontheChinesemainland.

Historically,inresponsetothistrend,somebrandshaveimplementedaglobalpricingstrategyto

offsetmostoftheexchangeratefluctuations.Thisyear,otherbrandsaddressedthesepricedisparitiesbyimplementingpurchaselimitsinstoresandaligningnewproductpricesglobally(inthefourthquarter).Ensuringmorecontrolledglobalpricedifferenceandswiftreactivityshouldbeatoppriorityforluxuryleadershipteamsinthisturbulentmacroenvironment.

Figure5:PricegapsbetweenChinaandJapan/Europewereakeydriverofoverseasshoppingin2024

Chinavs.Japan20242Chinavs.France20243

Pricegap1

(Aftertaxrefund,asofDecember2024prices;

rangefrom2024lowesttohighestexchangerate)

-40%-30%-20%-10%

Luxurybags

-25%to-30%

-10%to-20%

Shoes

-20%to-30%-25%to-30%

Jewelry

-10%to-20%

-5%to-10%

Watches

-10%to-20%

-5%to-10%

Notes:1)ComparedtopthreeSKUsselectedforleadingbrandsineachcategory;tax-refundrateinJapanis8.45%;tax-refundrateinFranceis12%;2)ListedpricefromChina/JapanofficialwebsiteasofDecember10,2024.JPYtoCNYrangedfrom0.045to0.050,basedon2024highestandlowestexchangerate;3)ListedpricefromChina/FranceofficialwebsiteasofDecember10,2024.EurotoCNYrangedfrom7.498to7.962,basedon2024highestandlowestexchangerate

Sources:Chinaofficialwebsite;Franceofficialwebsite;Japanofficialwebsite

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2024ChinaLuxuryGoodsMarket:NavigatingTurbulentWaters

For2024,despiteasignificantrecoveryof60%ininternationaltravelers,SouthKoreanduty-freesalesareprojectedtodeclineby3%versus2023,reachingapproximately60billionyuan,withanaveragebasketdroppingbyaround40%(seeFigure6).ThisdeclinecanbeattributedtoongoinggovernmentandbrandactionsagainstDaigoutrading,aswellasashiftintourismflowstowardJapanduetofavorableexchangerates.TheperformanceofSouthKoreanduty-freesalesisstillapproximately50%of2019,bothintermsofspendingandintermsofnumberoftravelers.

ThedepreciationoftheSouthKoreanwonmayfurtherencourageChineseconsumerstoshopabroad,addingtothelong-termuncertaintysurroundingChina’soffshoreluxuryconsumption.Highin-ventorypressureonduty-freeretailerscouldleadtoincreasedpromotionsanddiscountsin2025.

Figure6:Despitearecoveryininternationaltravelers,SouthKoreanduty-freesalesdidnotincreaseasgovernmentandbrandstookactionsagainstDaigou

NumberofinternationaltravelersshoppinginSouthKoreadutyfree

SouthKoreaduty-freesalestointernationaltravelers(2019–24E,RMBbillion)

(-82%)

~18M

(+60%)

~10M

(+280%)

(-80%)~6M

(+135%)

~3M

~1.6M

~0.7M

201920202021202220232024E

(-37%)

~120

(+17%)(-4%)(-30%)

~92

~89

(-3%)

~79

~61

~60

201920202021202220232024E

Sources:KoreaDutyFreeShopsAssociation;Analystreport;Literatureresearch;Bainanalysis

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2024ChinaLuxuryGoodsMarket:NavigatingTurbulentWaters

DaigouactivitiessignificantlycontributetoChineseconsumerspending.AccordingtobrandstrackedbyRe-Hub,theoverallgreymarketgrewbyapproximately5%in2024.However,priceindexesfor

JapanandFranceindicatethatthesemarketsarenotlikelytobetheprimarysourcesfortopitemssoldinthegreymarket.Favorableexchangerates,pricingdiscounts,promotionmechanisms,andsoonhavereignitedthepotentialforsmall-scaleDaigouoperationstoblossom.However,themainsourceofsupplyislikelyfromlarge-scaleorprofessionalDaigouwhobenefitfromsubstantialpricingadvantagesthroughwholesaledistributionchannels.

Forfashionandleathergoodsbrandswithlimitedortightlycontrolledwholesalechannels,salesontheseplatformscanaccountfor15%–25%oftheirofficialsalesontheChinesemainland.Incontrast,forbrandswithlargerandlessregulatedwholesalechannels,platformsalescanrepresent60%–70%orevenmoreoftheirtotalsalesontheChinesemainland(seeFigure7).Notably,discountsforthetopproductstrackedbyRe-HubonDaigouplatformsdeepenedbyapproximatelyeightpercentage

pointsin2024.ThistrendraisesconcernsthatthegreymarketwillcontinuetounderminerevenuepotentialandbrandequityontheChinesemainland.

Tocounteractthistrend,brandsshouldprioritizeaddressingDaigouoperationsstrategicallyin2025andbeyond.TheChinesemainlandbusinessshouldnotbeviewedasanisolatedoperation;instead,itshouldcollaboratecloselywiththeglobalnetworktoactivelymanagerisksassociatedwithDaigou.Thiscanbeachievedbyoptimizingwholesaleoperationsworldwide;harmonizingpricegaps;andfocusingonenhancingcustomerrelationshipmanagement,aftersalesservices,andoverallclient

experienceontheChinesemainland.

Figure7:InFashionandLeathergoodscategories,DaigousalesasashareofmainlandChinasaleshaveincreased

DaigouGMV1generatedasshareofbrands2officialrevenueinmainlandChinaonplatformstrackedbyRe-Hub(fashionandleathergoodsonly)

Lowcase

15%–25%

Casewhenbrandsdonothaveoverseaswholesaleoperations

Highcase

60%–70%

Casewhenbrandshave

somewhatlargeoverseas

wholesaleoperations

Extremecase

>100%

Casewhenbrandshavelarge

anduncontrolledoverseas

wholesaleoperations

Notes:1)GMV=grossmerchandisevalue;2)selectivelytrackedbrands

Source:Re-Hub

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2024ChinaLuxuryGoodsMarket:NavigatingTurbulentWaters

ALookAhead

In2024,China’sluxurymarketfailedtomaintainitspreviousgrowthtrajectory,experiencingan

unexpectedandsharpdecelerationthatworsenedthroughouttheyear.Thedownturnwasprimarilydrivenbyalukewarmconsumerconfidencedrivenbyeconomicuncertaintyandadeclineinrealestatevalue,ashiftinspendingtowardoverseasmarkets,andcontinuouspriceincreasesbybrandswithoutwell-justifiedvaluepropositions.

Themarketisexpectedtocontinueitsdownwardtrendthroughthefirsthalfof2025,withacautiouslyoptimisticoutlookemerginginthelatterhalfoftheyear,resultinginanoverallflattishperformanceforthewholeyear.Keyfactorsinfluencingtheoutlookincludestrongergovernmentstimuluspolicies,whichcouldprovidepositivesupport,andtheimpactofthenewUSadministrationtakingofficeinJanuary,potentiallyaffectingtheChineseeconomyandexports.Meanwhile,overseastravel

andconsumptionareexpectedtogrowin2025.Asaresult,themarketisgoingthroughaneraofturbulenceanduncertaintywherewidespreadunderperformancemaybecomethenorm,withonlyafewbrandsemergingaswinners.Mostbrandswilllikelyneedtofocusonconsolidationand

performanceimprovementmeasuresinsteadofexpansionandpriceincreases.

Inthischallengingenvironment,brandsshouldprioritizeenhancingbranddesirabilityanddeliveringgenuinevaluethroughinitiativessuchasbrand-buildingevents,creativity,productinnovation,

andimprovedclientexperiencestoretainconsumersdomesticallyandcapturemarketsharefromcompetitors.Additionally,Chinashouldnotoperateinisolation;itshouldseekglobalcollaborationonpricingandDaigousourcing,especiallyonglobalwholesaleoperations.

Lookingahead,China’smacroeconomicconditionsandstructuraldemographicshiftspresentbothchallengesandopportunitiesforbrandsoperatinginthecountry.Thegrowthoffutu