商務(wù)英語4Unit6Risk省公開課金獎全國賽課一等獎微課獲獎?wù)n件

Unit6Risk1/34WarmerBusinessBriefRiskThechanceofharm,injuryorloss=threadThechanceofchangeofdirection,growingandmakingprofits=opportunityTrade-off:betweenriskandreward(利害，有多大利，就有多大害。)物物交換2/34Warmer"Theworldismuchriskiertoday,""Becauseeverythingismuchmoreinterconnected."

---risk-managementexpertRonDembo（gaveupaprofessorshipatYaleUniversitytolaunchhiscompany.）---Hasthereeverbeenariskiertimetobeinbusiness?Allbusinessisbuiltonrisk.3/34WarmerRisksinbusiness

KidnappingofmangersConfiscationofassets（沒收，充公）Devaluationofshares,currencyBeextorted:illegallybeforcedtogivemoney.(勒索)Beinginsolvency:nothavingenoughmoneytopaydebts(無力償還債務(wù))Facingfraudandcorruption4/34WarmerIndustrialespionage(商業(yè)間諜行為)Invest:puttingmoneyintoanewventureVenturecapitalist:whoputmoneyintosuchbusinessesspreadtheirrisksothatthepaybackfromoneortwosuccessfulventureswillhopefullymorethancompensateforthemoneylostinthefailures.5/34WarmerReputationalrisk,brandsuicide,productliabilityclaim(產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量承諾書)Productrecalls(產(chǎn)品召回)Theriskofmanagementcomplacency(自滿)6/34WarmerNoRisk,NoReward

you'llmeetpeopleandorganizationsthatarestillpreparedtogamble--intelligently,shrewdly,selectively--eveninaperiodofinsecurityandinstability.Theirstoriesofferlessonsinstrategy,marketing,leadership,R&D,andinnovation.Theyalsoremindusthatthegoodmoveswedon'tmakecanbeasconsequentialasthebadmoveswedomake--thatplayingitsafeisn'talwaysplayingitsmart.7/34WarmerStrategy:"Youcan'tthinktraditionallyinthesecircumstances."

Today,Bowersunderstands,justbecausesomethinghasn'thappenedbeforedoesn'tmeanthatitwon'thappennow,orsoon,orsometime.Thefutureisdiscontinuousand,therefore,riskybydefinition.Byspeedingtheflowofinformation,technologyhasconcentratedthatriskevenmore8/34WarmerPlayingItSafe,Part1:TheGodGamble

Ifoneoutcomeseemsoverwhelminglypreferable,takeit--evenifitisnotcertain.Marketing:"Tonottakeariskistoriskbeingignored."--He'sstillsurprisedthatCasioboughtin."ThatwasthelastideaIeverexpectedaclienttobuy,"hesays.--"Wow,Ineverexpectedthatfromyourcompany!"--"Howtheheckdidtheygetthatoneapproved"--"unconventionalrelationshipbuilding."Whatitreallydoesispushclientstowardthemarketingedge.9/34WarmerPlayingItSafe,Part2:Howmuchfuelisenough?

AplanedepartsNewark,NewJerseyforLosAngeles.Iftheflightgoessmoothly,itwillburnaround40,000poundsoffuel.Ifthereareglitches（小誤差）,suchaslousyweatherorcongestionoverLAX,theplanewillneedmorefuel.Everypoundoffueladdscostandweight,requiringevenmorefuel.

Theproblem:Howmuchisjustenough?Toomuch,andtheplaneincursmorecosts.Toolittle,andtheplanemayhavetodiverttoanotherdestination--anoutcomethat'slesssafeandfarmoreexpensive.10/34WarmerLeadership:"Wealthiscreatedduringperiodsofuncertainty."

Everythingbadthathashappenedduringthepastyear--thedotcomimplosion,therecession,terror,thewar--destroyedtheillusionthatweoperateinaworldthatiscontinuousandcontinuouslyprosperous.Asitturnsout,ourworldisnothinglikethat.Ourlivesareroutinelydisrupted,ourworkdislocated.

"Makingmoneydependsonidentifyingopportunitiesinaturbulentmarketplace."

--Wind

11/34Warmer1Disciplinedopportunism.2Continuouslearning--andunlearning3Adaptiveexperimentation12/34WarmerHowtomanagerisk

"Ifyou'renotmanagingrisk,youcan'tclaimtobemanagingyourbusiness."

---RonDembo13/34WarmerThePastIsn'tAlwaysPrologue

Managingriskmeansthinkingaboutthefuture,notaboutthepast.Someofthebestmindsinbusinessmisunderstandthispoint.Weallgetcomfortablebasingourstrategiesforthefutureonthepast.That'swhyrisksthatwedidn'tanticipatecantakeusbysurprise--andwhyit'ssohardtoreckonwitheventsforwhichthereisnoprecedent.TheeurodebutedlastJanuary.There'sneverbeenaeurobefore:Howwillitaffecthowwethinkaboutrisk?Y2Khasneverhappenedbefore:Howdoweplanforit?14/34WarmerDifferentFutures,DifferentRisks

There'snosuchthingas"thefuture."Whenitcomestorisk,themostcommonerrorthatpeoplemakeistothinkaboutthefutureintermsofasinglescenario（方案）.Why?Well,lookatthenewspapers;listentotheanalysts.They'refullofpredictions:"Interestrateswillbelower.""Internetstockswillcrash.""TheDowwillgodown."Theseso-calledexpertshavenoideawhat'sgoingtohappen.Neverconfuseaforecastwithascenario.15/34WarmerRegrets--TooFewtoMention?

Lotsofpeoplethinkaboutriskintermsof"probabilities."Butprobabilityisawayofanalyzingeventsthatoccurmanytimes.Mostbusinessdecisionsareone-timeevents.Thinkingaboutprobabilitydoesn'thelpmuchwiththosedecisions.Instead,youshouldthinkaboutwhatIcall"regret."

Regretisn'tthesameasdisappointment.Regretissensitivetospecificcircumstances,anditaddsapsychologicalfactortoyourchoices.Thegreatchanceifyoutakeit,youmaymakeagreatachievement,ifyoumissit,thatnevercomeagaintoyourlife.16/34WarmerFormphraseswith"risky".RiskybusinessRiskydealRiskyinvestmentRiskylendingRiskyprojectRiskystrategyRiskyundertaking17/34Understandthequotation

"Thepolicyofbeingtoocautiousisthegreatestriskofall."

---JarwaharlaNehru(1899-1964),India'sfirstPrimeMinister18/34StartingupTaskC-D1doingnothing2creditorguaranteerisk3politicalrisk4riskofcatastropheordisruption(=theriskofnotbeingabletocontinuebusinessasusualbecauseofsomeunforeseenevent)19/34Vocabulary:describingriskPredictMeetAssessManageForeseeEncounterFaceCalculateEstimateePrioritiseEliminateMinimiseReduceSpread20/34Vocabulary:describingriskTaskB1e2f3g4d5c6b7a21/34Vocabulary:describingriskTaskCHigh:Great,huge,serious,significant,substantial,terrible,tremendousLow

:Faint,low,negligible,remote,slight22/34Listening:ManagingriskTaskA1doingnothing2creditorguaranteerisk3politicalrisk4riskofcatastropheordisruption23/34Listening:Managingrisk1a)trueB)trueC)false21)thecompanywillendupwithobsoleteproductinanobsoletemarket

2)thecustomermaynotpay

3)governmentactionsmaychangethesituation.

4)acompanymayencounterfraudorcriminaldamage.24/34Listening:ManagingriskTaskB1companiesshouldhavegoodquality,up-to-dateandreliableinformationavailable.2theyshouldhaveagoodmanagementteaminplacetoidentifyanddealwithrisks.3thereshouldbegoodlinesofcommunicationbetweenthepeopleinthecompanywhowillplayanimportantroleindealingwithanyrisk.25/34Reading:Risksfromglobalization

TaskB1e2g3d4f5a6c7bTaskD1globalization2thedevelopmentofcommunicationtechnologies26/34Reading:RisksfromglobalizationTaskEa)personalsecurityrisk:terrorism,kidnapping,pettycrimeb)reputationalrisk:directactionbypressuregroups,consumeractivism,humanrightsdemandsc)politicalrisk:internationalsanctions,currencydevaluationd)financialrisk:organisedcrime,fraud,corruption,extortion,pettycrime27/34Reading:RisksfromglobalizationTaskF

Forexample,theSsmightmentionoilcompaniesandenvironmentalprotest,pharmaceuticalscompaniesandprotectorsagainstrecessionthatparticularlyaffectscertaintypesofcompany.28/34Internetresource:TheFastCompanywebsitefeaturesthreearticles,thefirstlooksattheroleofRiskManagersinmoderncompanies,anotherarticlefeaturesadviceonhowtomanagerisk,andthefinalarticlearguesthatthereisnorewardwithoutrisk.29/34Casestudy:AriskbusinessCompanytypeFamilybusinessActivityMakesfashionwearBrandnameETCImageFashionableclothingatcompetitivepricesMainproductJeansandtrainersCurrentconsumerperceptionsProductsarelosingtheirappealCompany'scurrentsituationStruggling,outoftouch,losingdirection.Managemen