2025哈佛大學(xué)美國資本市場一體化與增長

CapitalMarketIntegrationandGrowthAcrosstheUnitedFebruary21,

2025221NationalNationalMarketsandAmericanDevelopmentAmericanhistoricaldevelopmentcharacterizedRiseofnationalfinancialmarkets:reallocatesavingsfromareaswithexcesssupply(Northeast)toareaswithexcessdemand(boomingSouth&West)MoveofworkersalongthesamegeographicallinesUsuallytreatedasparallelbutdistinctprocesses

（2）Riseofnationalfinancialmarkets:reallocatesavingsfromareaswithexcesssupply(Northeast)toareaswithexcessdemand(boomingSouth&West)MoveofworkersalongthesamegeographicallinesUsuallytreatedasparallelbutdistinctprocesses

Q1.Whatdrivesthegeographicintegrationoffinancial

Q2.Howdoesthisintegrationshaperealeconomic Q2.HowdoesthisintegrationshaperealeconomicRiseofnationalfinancialmarkets:reallocatesavingsfromareaswithexcesssupply(Northeast)toareaswithexcessdemand(boomingSouth&West)MoveofworkersalongthesamegeographicallinesUsuallytreatedasparallelbutdistinctprocessesQ1.WhatdrivesthegeographicintegrationoffinancialQ2.HowdoesthisintegrationshaperealeconomicSetting.StudyUSbankingmarketsbeforebranchingderegulation(1953-

工人在同一地理線上的流動通常被視為平行但不同本文。是否??？分兩步回 12Riseofnationalfinancialmarkets:reallocatesavingsfromareaswithexcesssupply(Northeast)toareaswithexcessdemand(boomingSouth&West)MoveofworkersalongthesamegeographicallinesUsuallytreatedasparallelbutdistinctprocessesQ1.WhatdrivesthegeographicintegrationoffinancialQ2.HowdoesthisintegrationshaperealeconomicSetting.StudyUSbankingmarketsbeforebranchingderegulation(1953-Implications.Lessonsforcurrentcontextwherecapitalmarketsarenotintegrated(developingcountries,Eurozone)¤tUSplace-basedinvestmentsubsidies

本文。是否??？分兩步回 年TheAmericanTheAmericanMid-CenturyExperienceDigitizenewstate-levelbankdata.TwomainnewSubstantialfinancialintegration:narrowingofregionaldifferencesininterestGDPandpopulationgrowthstronglycorrelatedwithinitialcapital-Explainfinancialintegration.Simplebankingtheory,testsandQuantifyrealeffects.Addbankstostate-of-the-artdynamicspatialEndogenousregionaldiff.inbankloanrates+fwd.look.migration&Fin.integr.explains20%riseofcapital-scarceSouth&WestandNorth’sAggregateeffectsImplications.PolicycounterfactualsonderegulationEffectsofderegulationmuchlargerthanpreviously

Digitizenewstate?levelbankdata.TwomainnewSubstantialnancialintegration:narrowingofregionaldifferencesininterestGDPandpopulationgrowthstronglycorrelatedwithinitialcapital-Explainfinancialintegration.Simplebankingtheory,testsandquantificationsQuantifyrealeffects.Addbankstostate?of?the?artdynamicspatialmodel:Endogenousregionaldiff.inbankloanrates.Forwardlook.migration&investment.Financialintegrationexplains20%riseofcapital?scarceSouth&WestandNorth’sdecline.Aggregateeffects(paper)Empirical SettingSettingandSettingandAmericanbankingsystempre-BanksprohibitedfrombranchingoutofReg.Qcappedratesofferedon

Reg.QcappedratesofferedonMostcommerciallendingshort62%?6months(Redenius2006),forworking

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Reg.QcappedratesofferedonMostcommerciallendingshort62%?6months(Redenius2006),forworking1953-70:digitizestate-levelOCCreports(1953-1960-83:bank-levelcallFOIAbefore1975(Drechsleretal.2020),publicLiabilities,assets,income,expenses,

Q1953-70州級美國貨幣監(jiān)理署（OCC）報告（1953?701960-83銀行級電話報告?1975（Drechsler等人2020年），MoreonMoreonData Moreon Sample DetailedListof11Fact1.SegmentationandConvergenceInterest&Feesonr

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控制變量：1月氣溫、Bartik部門人口沖擊、Bartik農(nóng)業(yè)人口沖擊、工作權(quán)州、1950年GDP事實2.最初高利率地區(qū)的GDP事實2.最初高利率地區(qū)的GDPFact2.HigherGDPGrowthinInitiallyHigh-RateAreas Controls:Jan.temp.,Bartiksect.dem.shock,Bartikagriculturaldem.shock,Right-to-Workstate,%GDPinOilinTablewithOutcomesRegionFEsMigrationvs.FertilityDependenceonExternalRobustness:holdsalsoTablewithOutcomesRegionFEsMigrationvs.FertilityDependenceonExternal

Controls:Jan.temp.,Bartiksect.dem.shock,Bartikagriculturaldem.shock,Right-to-Workstate,%GDPinOilinTablewithOutcomesRegionFEsMigrationvs.FertilityDependenceonExternalRobustness:holdsalsoTablewithOutcomesRegionFEsMigrationvs.FertilityDependenceonExternal Theory TheoryObjectivesObjectivesandIngredientsObjectivesandIngredientsRoleofrtindrivingfinancialInpaper,showothertraditionalstories(risk,competition)donotsquarew.RoleoffinancialintegrationindrivingpopulationConventionalapproach:fin.integrationincreasesinvestment,noroleforButherefin.integrationwithincountry!Laborismobile&importantinthe

Inpaper,showothertraditionalstories(risk,competition)donotsquarew.RoleofnancialintegrationindrivingpopulationConventionalapproach:n.integrationincreasesinvestment,noroleforButheren.integrationwithincountry!Laborismobile&importantintheRoleofrtindrivingfinancialInpaper,showothertraditionalstories(risk,competition)donotsquarew.RoleoffinancialintegrationindrivingpopulationConventionalapproach:fin.integrationincreasesinvestment,noroleforButherefin.integrationwithincountry!Laborismobile&importantintheManyregionsindexedbyjwithbanks,firms,households;continuoustimeLendingmarketsareregional(branchingprohibited/capitalflowsWithinperiod,householdsstoreliquidity,firmsborrowtopayAcrossperiods,migrationchoicesandinvestment

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Households(Caliendoetal.2019):migrationEnjoyamenitiesandconsumption,payLocalspread?affectswages?migration,accordingtomigrationPhysicalCapitalist(Kleinmanetal.2023):investmentImmobile,makestandardconsumption-savingLocalspread?rentalrate?

家庭（Caliendo等人2019年）Enjoyamenitiesandconsumption,payLocalspread?affectswages?migration,accordingtomigration實物資本家（Kleinman等人2023年）不可移動，做出標準的消費儲蓄決策當?shù)乩?AssumptionsAssumptionsandQuantitativeExerciseNohouseholdAngelovaandD’Amico(2024):verysmallregionaldifferencesinmortgageFirmborrowingisshortFirmloansmostlyforworkingcapital:62%maturity?6months(RedeniusQuantitativeexercise.States’responsetofin.integrationin1958-FulltransitiondynamicstosourcesofintegrationestimatedinMigrationelasticity.Estimatedfromfulltransitiondyn.(“MasterEquation”,BilalTargetmost?GDPcomesfrom?pop.,absolute?GDP

AngelovaandD’1Amico(2024)23:房貸利率的地區(qū)差異非常小FirmborrowingisshortFirmloansmostly1用于營運資本：62%的到期日234個月56(Redenius1231958?83n目標GDP的最大部分來自人口，絕對GDPRegionalRegionalGrowthGeneratedbyFinancialShocksShockstort

?Population(%fromsteadystate)

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?PhysicalCapital(%fromsteadystate) Modelvs.Data Modelvs.DataImplicationsfor Modelvs.Data Modelvs.DataImplicationsforPolicyPolicyImplicationsPolicyImplicationsHighnominalratesareapowerfuldriveroffinancialFinancialintegrationcanhaveimportantconsequencesonImplicationsforpolicyCheapfinancingimportantforregionalgrowth,sizablespatialImplicationsforcurrentplace-basedinvestmentRemovingbarrierstocapitalmobilitymoreeffectiveinlowrateDeregulationallowsbankstomovedepositsacrossMorepowerfulinlowrateenvironments:moredeposits?moretoUSbranchingdereg.2?aspowerfulifithadhappenedin1950sinsteadof

名義利率是金融一體化強有力的驅(qū)動因素金融一體化對增長有重Cheapnancingimportantforregionalgrowth,sizablespatialImplicationsforcurrentplace-basedinvestment 去監(jiān)管化允許銀行在空間上轉(zhuǎn)移存款?在低利率環(huán)境中更強大：更多存款?以重新分配?美國分行去監(jiān)管化2?如果它在20世紀50年代而不是80SummarySummaryandFutureDirectionsThispaper.StudymobilityoffinancialcapitaljointlywithmobilityofFinancialintegr.of’59-’83explainspartofAmerica’smovetoSouth&AggregateratescanbeapowerfuldriveroffinancialDeregulationismorepowerfulinlow-rate

ThispaperStudyThispaper.StudymobilityoffinancialcapitaljointlywithmobilityofFinancialintegr.of’59-’83explainspartofAmerica’smovetoSouth&AggregateratescanbeapowerfuldriveroffinancialDeregulationismorepowerfulinlow-rateToday.Eurozonecomesoutofaprotractedlow-rate%ofmoneymarketholdingsbyEUhouseholdsfarlowerthanUSinthe

ThispaperStudySummarySummaryandFutureDirectionsThispaper.StudymobilityoffinancialcapitaljointlywithmobilityofThispaperStudyFinancialintegr.of’59-’83explainspartofAmerica’smovetoSouth&AggregateratescanbeapowerfuldriveroffinancialDeregulationismorepowerfulinlow-rateToday.Eurozonecomesoutofaprotractedlow-rate%ofmoneymarketholdingsbyEUhouseholdsfarlowerthanUSintheAgendamovingforward.CapitalmarketsandlocalUSmortgagemarketintegrationanddevelopment(w.V.Creditconditionsandresilienceoflocallabormkts(w.G.HansonandJ.Thank

%ofmoneymarketholdingsbyEUhouseholdsfarlowerthanUSintheUSmortgagemarketintegrationanddevelopment(w.V.Creditconditionsandresilienceoflocallabormkts(w.G.HansonandJ.Growth:Modelvs.GDPGrowthbetween1963and

1963年至1983年間的GDP ImplicationsImplicationsforUSBranchingDeregulationFrom1982onwards:startofbranchingBankscouldnowlocatefreelyinallstates?fullVerylargeliteraturethatstudieditseffects(JayaratneandStrahanInfluentialwithpolicymakers(e.g.citedinDraghi

自1982Ba銀行現(xiàn)在可以自由地位于所有州?有影響（例如，在Draghi2018中被引用）From1982onwards:startofbranchingBankscouldnowlocatefreelyinallstates?fullVerylargeliteraturethatstudieditseffects(JayaratneandStrahanInfluentialwithpolicymakers(e.g.citedinDraghiOccurredafteraveryhighrateMarketsalreadydidpartofthework,spreadsmuchsmallerthanintheLiquiditymovedtonationalmarket,less“reshuffling”ofliquidityleftto

自1982Banks現(xiàn)在可以自由地定位在所有州?關(guān)于其影響的研究文獻非常豐富?（Jayaratne和Strahan1996）對政策制定者有影響（例如，在?Draghi2018中引用） Liquiditymovedtonationalmarket,less“reshufing”ofliquiditylefttoFrom1982onwards:startofbranchingBankscouldnowlocatefreelyinallstates?fullVerylargeliteraturethatstudieditseffects(JayaratneandStrahanInfluentialwithpolicymakers(e.g.citedinDraghiOccurredafteraveryhighrateMarketsalreadydidpartofthework,spreadsmuchsmallerthanintheLiquiditymovedtonationalmarket,less“reshuffling”ofliquiditylefttoUSderegulationinlow-rateenvironmentwouldhavebeenmore

自1982Banks現(xiàn)在可以自由地定位在所有州?關(guān)于其影響的研究文獻非常豐富?（Jayaratne和Strahan1996）對政策制定者有影響（例如，在?Draghi2018中引用） Liquiditymovedtonationalmarket,less“reshufing”ofliquidityleftto SMALLEREFFECTSOFDEREG.INHIGH-RATEENVIRONMENTS

Extra FullRelatedFullRelatedFullRelatedBankLendingChannelofMonetaryPolicy(BernankeandGertler1995;KashyapandStein1995;2000;Bernankeetal.1999,...andmanymore)òrt,ódepositsasinDrechsleretal.(2017):herebitesheterogeneouslyacross

BankLendingChannelofMonetaryPolicy(BernankeandGertler1995;KashyapandStein2000;伯南克等人1999年，...以及更多)òrt,ódepositsasinDrechsleretal.(2017):herebitesheterogeneouslyacrossFullFullRelatedBankLendingChannelofMonetaryòrt,ódepositsasinDrechsleretal.(2017):herebitesheterogeneouslyacross

òrt,ódepositsasinDrechsleretal.(2017):herebitesheterogeneouslyacrossFullFullRelatedBankLendingChannelofMonetaryòrt,ódepositsasinDrechsleretal.(2017):herebitesheterogeneouslyacrossFinancialConvergencein20thCenturyAmerica(Bogue1955;Davis1965;Schaaf1966;Sylla1969,1972,1975;Williamson1974;James1976a,1976b;Rockoff1977;Bodenhorn1992,1995;1999;Smiley1975,1981,1985;SushkaandBarrett1984,1985;Ostas1977;Eichengreen1984,Snowden1987;Redenius2006;AngelovaandD’AmicoNewchannelofintegration?dependsonrt:timevarying¬

FullFullRelatedòrt,ódepositsasinDrechsleretal.(2017):herebitesheterogeneouslyacross20世紀美國金融趨同（Bogue1955;Davis1965;Schaaf1966;Sylla1969,1972,Williamson1974;James1976a,1976b;Rockoff1977;Bodenhorn1992,1995;GendreauSmiley1975,1981,1985;SushkaandBarrett1984,1985;Ostas1977;Eichengreen1984,Snowden1987;Redenius2006;AngelovaandD’Amico2024FullFullRelatedBankLendingChannelofMonetaryòrt,ódepositsasinDrechsleretal.(2017):herebitesheterogeneouslyacrossFinancialConvergencein20thCenturyNewchannelofintegration?dependsonrt:timevarying¬

FullFullRelated20Newchannelofintegration?dependsonrt:timevarying¬FullFullRelatedBankLendingChannelofMonetaryòrt,ódepositsasinDrechsleretal.(2017):herebitesheterogeneouslyacrossFinancialConvergencein20thCenturyNewchannelofintegration?dependsonrt:timevarying¬EconomicConvergencein20thCenturyAmerica(Steckel1983;GreenwoodandHunt1984;Long1988;BarroandMartin1992;Greenwood1997;Holmes1998;Haines2000;GlaeserandTobio2008;Molloyetal.2011;ZimranNewexplanationforAmerica’smovetoSouth&West:financial

FullFullRelatedòrtó存款如Drechsler等人（2017）所述：20集成新通道?取決于rt20世紀美國經(jīng)濟收斂（Steckel1983；GreenwoodandHunt1984；Long1988；BarroMartin1992；Greenwood1997；Holmes1998；Haines2000；GlaeserandTobio2008；Molloyetal.2011；Zimran2024）NewexplanationforAmerica’smovetoSouth&West:nancialFullFullRelatedBankLendingChannelofMonetaryòrt,ódepositsasinDrechsleretal.(2017):herebitesheterogeneouslyacrossFinancialConvergencein20thCenturyNewchannelofintegration?dependsonrt:timevarying¬EconomicConvergencein20thCenturyNewexplanationforAmerica’smovetoSouth&West:financial

FullFullRelatedòrtó存款如Drechsler等人（2017）所述：20集成新通道?取決于rt20NewexplanationforAmerica’smovetoSouth&West:nancialFullFullRelatedBankLendingChannelofMonetaryòrt,ódepositsasinDrechsleretal.(2017):herebitesheterogeneouslyacrossFinancialConvergencein20thCenturyNewchannelofintegration?dependsonrt:timevarying¬EconomicConvergencein20thCenturyNewexplanationforAmerica’smovetoSouth&West:financialDynamicSpatialModels(Caliendoetal.2019;Ramos-MenchelliandVanDoornik2022;Kleinmanetal.2023;BilalandRossi-Hansberg2023)IntroducebanksinspatialdynamicGEmodels(BilalandRossi-Hansberg

FullFullRelatedòrtó存款如Drechsler等人（2017）所述：20集成新通道?取決于rt20動態(tài)空間模型（Caliendo等人2019；Ramos?Menchelli和VanDoornik2022；Kleinman等人2023；Bilal和Rossi?Hansberg2023）IntroducebanksinspatialdynamicGEmodels(BilalandRossi-HansbergFullRelatedFullRelatedLiteratureandContributionsBanksandlocallabormarkets(Guisoetal.2004;Becker2007;Paravisini2008;Nguyen2019;etal.2020,2020;Granjaetal.2022;Giljeetal.2016;Corte′sandStrahan2017;Supera2021;Maingi2023):financialint.matteredforAmericandevelopment&canstudyshocksacrossmarketsinspatialequilibrium(Mianetal.2022;Catherineetal.2022;Herren?o2023)DepositsOutflowsandrt(BergerandHannan1989;DieboldandSharpe1990;HannanandBerger1991;DriscollandJudson2013;Drechsleretal.2017,2021;Drechsleretal.2023;Koontetal.2023;Luetal.2024;Ereletal.2024;Haendler2022;Jiangetal.2022;Koont2023):givesrisetoourchannelImplicationsfore-banking:allowsdepositstobesourcedwithoutphysical(local)branchRegionallyHeterogeneousPassthroughofMonetaryPolicy(FratantoniandSchuh2003;Berajaetal.2019;AlpandaandZubairy2019;Bellifemineetal.2023;Rogers2023):cancomefromfrict.mobilityoffin.capitalFinanceinSpatialModels(Ramos-MenchelliandVanDoornik2022;Maingi2023;Morellietal.2024;etal.2024):firstwithendogenouslendingdifferentials&real1980sBranchingDeregulation(JayaratneandStrahan1996;KrosznerandStrahan1999,...andmanymanyothers):occurredafterexceptionallyhighrt,mktsalreadyquiteintegrated,smallereffectsImplicationsforEurozonetoday,comingoutofprotractedlowrate

（Guiso2004Becker2007Paravisini2008Nguyen2019Greenstone20202020年；Granja等人2022年；Gilje等人2016年；Cort′es和Strahan2017年；Supera2021年；Maingi2023年）國際資本對美國發(fā)展至關(guān)重要，可以研究在空間均衡中市場間的沖擊（Mian等人2022年；Catherine等人2022年；Herre?no2023年）rt（BergerHannan1989DieboldandSharpe1990HannanBerger1991Driscoll和Judson2013年；Drechsler等人2017年，2021年；Drechsleretal.2023年；Koontetal.2023年；Lu等人2024Erel2024Haendler2022Jiang2022Koont2023）：產(chǎn)生了我們的渠道導(dǎo)（FratantoniandSchuh2003年；Beraja等人2019年；Alpanda和Zubairy2019年；Bellifemine等人2023年；Rogers2023年）：可以來自新資本的摩擦性流動性空間模型中的金融（Ramos?Menchelli和VanDoornik2022年；Maingi2023年；Morelli等人2024年；Obereld等人2024年）款差異和實際動態(tài)1980年代分支機構(gòu)解禁（Jayaratne和Strahan1996年；KrosznerandStrahan1999年，...以及許多人）：在異常高的rt之后發(fā)生，市場已經(jīng)相當一體化，影響較小HistoricalSettingHistoricalSetting“OursisacountrypredominantlyofindependentlocalThomasMcCabe,theChairmanoftheFed,Commencementaddressof13,446commercialbanks,mostlyBranchingrestrictedbothacrossandwithinstates(Mengle,Reg.Qcapsdepositrates,esp.shortmaturities&demand(§19(i),Fed.Res.SupervisedbyOfficeoftheComptrolleroftheCurrency&state-levelOCCissuedyearlyreports,state-levelaggr.ofbankingbalancesheet

我們是一個以獨??·麥卡錫，美聯(lián)儲主席，1950年畢業(yè)典禮演講13,446跨州和州內(nèi)分支機構(gòu)受限（Mengle，1990年）?Reg.Q限制存款利率，尤其是短期和定期存款（第19(i)節(jié)，聯(lián)邦儲備法）Digitizestate-levelOCCreports(1942-FOIAbank-levelcallreports(1960-Liabilities,assets,income,exp.,Construct,locallendingrL“Interest&Feeson

rL“Interest&Feeson Correlatew.mortgagespreads(ρ“ Sample OtherDigitizedfromNational Sample Othera.FollowingDrechsler,Savov,andSchnabl,2021,whoalsomadeavailabletousthedatabeforeourrequestwascompleted.Dataafter1975ispublic.

與抵押貸款利差相關(guān)（ρ55根據(jù)Drechsler、Savov和Schnabl，2021年的研究，他們也在我們的請求完成之前向我們提供了數(shù)據(jù)。1975OCCSample

DataSourcesAnnualReportoftheComptrolleroftheOCC:regulatingentityfornationalAnnualreportonconditionofSeriesbystateofbalancesheetitems,Originallyfrom“CallWedigitized1942toCallBank-levelbalancesheetFOIArequesttotheFRBfor1960to1975(asinDrechsler,Savov,Schnabl,

DataSources來自“銀行報告”數(shù)字化了1942年至1970年的數(shù)據(jù)對美聯(lián)儲1960年至1975年的FOIA請求（如Drechsler，Savov，Schnabl，2021年所述）VARIABLES VARIABLESOCC(1942–70).Atthestatelevel,foreveryAssets:loans,treasuries,securities,stocks,currency,balanceswoth.Liabilities:deposits(demandvs.time/savings,byholder),borrowings,capitalstockLoans:bytype(C&I,financial,realestate,agricultural),reservesforEarnings:interestratesandchargesonloans,...onsecurities,feesonExpenditure:operatingexp.,interestexp.,lossesonloansandlos.onCallReports(1960–75).Sameasabove,butatthebanklevel,withmoredetailed

負債：存款（活期/定期/儲蓄，按持有人分類），Earnings:interestratesandchargesonloans,...onsecurities,feesonExpenditure:operatingexp.,interestexp.,lossesonloansandlos.onCORRELATESOFINITIALSPREADS Table:CorrelatesofAverageState-LevelLendingRatesin1953–58andControlsinDynamicDiDRegressionsCorrelationCoefficientwith

Table:CorrelatesofAverageState-LevelLendingRatesin1953–58andControlsinDynamicDiDRegressionsCorrelationCoefcient無條 多BankAssets0.160.03銀行資產(chǎn)0.160.03Shareoffarm0.31-0.20.31-0.2Shareemployedin-0.53-0.02制造業(yè)就業(yè)人口占比{{v2}}500.53-0.02（0.15Sharepop.aged-0.37-0.19人口占比65+500.37（0.15）0.19（0.11ShareofGDPfrom0.40.14GDP中石油占比0.4（0.140.14Population-0.5-0.28人口密度530.5-0.28-0.64-0.5-0.64-0.5log(income-0.37-0.25人均收入對數(shù)530.37-0.25CorrelationwithCorrelationwithMortgageOurRatesvs.HousingCensusMortgageRates(fromAngelovaandD’AmicoOurRatesvs.Hous與人口普查抵押貸款利率（來自Angelova和D’Amico19621962Savings19621962SavingsandLoans CorrelationwithCorrelationwithMortgageOurRatesvs.HousingCensusMortgageRates(fromAngelovaandD’AmicoOurRatesvs.Hous與人口普查抵押貸款利率（來自Angelova和D’Amico1962年儲蓄貸款數(shù)據(jù)1962Savings1962年儲蓄貸款數(shù)據(jù)1962SavingsandLoans MortgageSpreads,1960-1970FederalHomeLoanBankBoard

CorrelationwithMortgage

CorrelationwithMortgageSemiannualFinancialReportsofSavingsandLoanInstitutionsOperationsandConditionsIncome,costs,assets,&

(indeviationsfromyearly

運營和條件賬簿?收入、成本、資產(chǎn)

(indeviationsfromyearlyFor1960-1972,physicalcopieshostedatNationalArchivesAggregateatstateandMSA

MSAMortgage

ntereston

jt抵押貸款利息款總額jt

jtConvergenceinConvergenceinInterest Time-VaryingRiseTime-VaryingRiseofNationalMarketsHouseholds’MoneyMarket(MMFshares,largetimedep.,commercial

Banks’National(largetimedep.,FedFunds&Repos,comm.

Time-VaryingRiseTime-VaryingRiseofNationalMarketsHouseholds’Local

Banks’Local

Banks’Local(cashandcheckingacc.,smalltimeandsavings

(checkingaccounts,smalltimeandsavings

Households’Local

Banks’Local

Banks’Local(cashandcheckingacc.,smalltimeandsavings

(checkingaccounts,smalltimeandsavings

InitialDeposits,InitialInitialDeposits,InitialRates,andDepositsOutflowsDependentVariable:State-InitialLendingRate Changebetween‘59andinDem.Dep./Tot.Liab.

因變量：初始貸款利率（基點 變化在民主存款/到

‘59andt.Liab.InitialDemandDeposit/Tot.Liab.Fract.ofLargeBanksinState該州大型銀行占比（%）Region------

.008

AllOutcomes,LevelsDependentAllOutcomes,LevelsDependentLendingRate BankFinancingRate DemandDep.Share

貸款利率（百分比 銀行融資利率（百分比 需求

ep.ShareInitialLendingRate(pp),初始貸款利率（百分比53′58。999 美國3個月期國庫券利率（百分比US3moT-BillRate(pp),′.087。Within在內(nèi)。State&Region?Year?FinancialMacro Deposits DepositsonRHS, DepositsonRHS,AllOutcomes,ChangesDependentAllOutcomes,ChangesDependentLendingRate BankFinancingRate DemandDep.Share

貸款利率（百分比 銀行融資利率（百分比 需求

ep.ShareInitialLendingRate(pp),初始貸款利率（百分比53′58。010039?US3moT-BillRate(pp),US3個月期國庫券利率（基點 ′.069。Within內(nèi)。State&Region?Year州與地區(qū)?FinancialMacro AllOutcomes,LevelsDependentAllOutcomes,LevelsDependentLendingRate BankFinancingRate DemandDep.Share

貸款利率（基點 銀行融資利率（基點 需求

ep.ShareInitialDem.Dep.Share初始民主黨參議院份額（%US3moT-BillRate(pp),美國3個月期國庫券利率（百分比64.030InitialDem.Dep.Share初始民主黨參議院份額?rt.099415′Within在Within在內(nèi)。State&Region?Year?FinancialMacro

AllOutcomes,inChanges

DependentLendingRate BankFinancingRate DemandDep.Share

貸款利率（基點 銀行融資利率（基點 需求

ep.ShareInitialDem.Dep.Share初始民主黨參議院份額（%?US3moT-BillRate(pp),US3個月期國庫券利率（基點InitialDem.Dep.Share初始民主黨參議院份額??rt.055。713455Within在Within在州與地區(qū)?FinancialMacro

DependentState-levelLendingDependentState-levelLendingRate(pp),州級貸款利率（百分比），rLIn In

按水 變US3moT-BillRate(pp),

?rpβq

?r ?US3moT-Billrate(pp),?US3moT-Billrate(pp),US3個月國庫券利率（基點 ??r ??rStateFinancial地區(qū)?MacroFinancingFinancingRateson InitialDepositson FinancingRatesonLHS,InitialDepositsonFLHSRHSDependentState-levelBankDependentState-levelBankFinancingRate州級銀行融資率（百分比點InInIn US3moT-BillRate(pp),美國3個月期國庫券利率（基點），r ?r ?r ?US3moT-Billrate(pp),US3個月國庫券利率（基點 ??r ??rStateFinancial地區(qū)?MacroDependentState-levelLendingDependentState-levelLendingRate(pp),州級貸款利率（百分比），rLInInUS3moT-BillRate(pp),3（基點），rInitialDem.Dep.Share(%)53′58?r初始民主黨參議院份額（）53′58?rpβq?US3moT-Billrate(pp),US3個月國庫券利率（基點InitialDem.Dep.Share(%)53′58??r初始民主黨參議院份額（%）53′58??r .055。StateFinancialRegion?Year地區(qū)?MacroDependentState-levelBankDependentState-levelBankFinancingRateIn In

US3moT-BillRate(pp),3（基點），rInitialDem.Dep.Share(%)53′58?r初始民主黨參議院份額（）53′58?rpβq?US3moT-Billrate(pp),US3個月國庫券利率（基點），??rInitialDem.Dep.Share(%)53′58??r初始民主黨參議院份額（%）53′58??r .053StateFinancialRegion?Year地區(qū)?MacroWithinRegionWithinRegionResultsyj,t State

lomRegion?lom

τ

βτ¨Xj,53′58 κτ¨Macro&Fin.

yj,t

lomoRegion?lomo

τ

βτ¨Xj,53′58 κτ¨Macro&Fin.

Liabilities53—Xj,1953′58“Demandj53,Liabilities53—53—Xj,1953′58“SpreadsandGDPGrowthSpreadsandGDPGrowth(Placebo)DependentSpreadsandGDPGrowth(Placebo)State-levelBankLendingRate USGDPGrowthRate(pp),

州級銀行貸款利率（百分比 美國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長率（百分比），gt.402

?

?

US3moT-BillRate(pp),

?

?

.089.089Within077041047StateRegion?Year地區(qū)?MacroReal

觀測

SpreadsandRealRatesSpreadsandRealRates(Placebo)DependentState-levelBankLendingRate

州級銀行貸款利率（百分比點

v1rj t USShortRealRate(pp),美國短期實際利率（百分比）， ? ? .028。035。044。054。 US3moT-BillRate(pp), ? ? 觀測 .038。Within在 內(nèi)。026052State YearFEs&FinancialRegion?Year地區(qū)?Macro Backto BackBackto BacktoRed.MarketPowerMarketPowerUnlikelytoExplainLendingandFinancing log(HHI)vs.Initial LendingandFinancing

HHI對數(shù)與初始利率 Triple-Difference(Changes)Triple-Difference(Changes)βoninitialstatelendingrate

銀行級融資

大型銀行，大型銀行， ′。

小型銀行 ′。

–Triple-diff,β?′–Triple-diff,β?′?WithinR2,small在R2019022055011在R2Bank&Region?Year銀行與地區(qū)?LoanComp.In In

Triple-Difference(Levels)Triple-Difference(Levels) DependentTriple-Difference(Levels)βoninitialstatelendingrate?

Bank-levelLending Bank-levelFinancing

β

銀行級貸款利 銀行級融資

Smallbanks,βs Largebanks,

小型銀行，βs (0.026) (0.030) 大型銀行， Triple-diff,β?′

三重差分，β?′ ′。

Observati