3430.C 人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易的影響研究 英語(yǔ)文獻(xiàn)

1、 題目：人民幣匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易的影響研究英文文獻(xiàn)資料：first, the core of foreign exchange reform, performance and trend analysis (a) of the rmb exchange reform in 2005 the core in the following aspects: first, the exchange rate formation mechanism reform. since july 21, 2005, the rmb started to practice market-based, with

2、reference to a basket of currencies, there is managed floating exchange rate system. second, the appropriate release of the rmb appreciation. namely, the appreciation of the yuan currency to make small adjustments to the yuan against the u.s. dollar by 2.1%. the third is due to expand the floating r

3、ange of rmb exchange rate. to allow the yuan-dollar exchange rate volatility for the day plus or minus 0.3%; and non-dollar currencies to the yuan exchange rate floating range extended to 3%; to expand the banks in the pricing of rights, cash and cash sale price of the benchmark rate down 1% -4% or

4、less by the banks to decide, but also multi-day price. (b) after performance of the rmb exchange reform: exchange rate flexibility has become pronounced and the trade surplus continued to expand. rmb exchange reform in 14 months, the yuan-dollar exchange rate movements, and basic show rose slipped t

5、he characteristics of the slow movement of its own run: (1) slow its own run. from the exchange rate reform to september 21, 2006 in 291 trading days, only 2 days less than 8.11, the lowest for the july 27, 2005 of 8.1128, compared with 0.03% 8.11 depreciation, the maximum for the september 14, 2006

6、 of 7.9461, compared with 8.11 l 2.06%, total volatility is 2%. (2) highlighted the exchange rate flexibility to achieve a two-way floating. such as: the dollar, compared with the previous trading day, the yuan in 291 japan has 191 trading days trading float, 100 trading days to float downward. (3)

7、trade surplus continued to expand. in 2005 chinas trade surplus up to 101.9 billion u.s. dollars, of which the trade surplus reached 62.3 billion u.s. dollars in the second half than before the exchange reform trade surplus of 39.6 billion u.s. dollars for half a year more than 22.6 billion u.s. dol

8、lars. (c) of the rmb exchange rate changes of the future trend analysis. either the short or medium to long term appreciation of the rmb exchange rate remains largely expected: one. growing balance of payments surplus is the result of the rmb exchange rate, the expected short-term appreciation of th

9、e main factors. according to the relevant state data, in 2005 chinas trade surplus up to 101.9 billion u.s. dollars, capital account surplus has reached 63 billion u.s. dollars; 1, 2006 -8 months were still a trade surplus totaled 95.65 billion u.s. dollars and the introduction of fdi371.92 billion

10、u.s. dollars, up 75% over the same period the previous year and 5.8%. estimated annual trade surplus in 2006 will more than 140 billion u.s. dollars, to the end of 2006 foreign exchange reserves will be nearly 1 trillion dollars. the huge balance of payments surplus and foreign exchange reserves dou

11、ble to form a strong appreciation of the yuan is expected to: asian development bank forecast 5.8% during the year about the yuan to appreciate; leading global investment bank lehman brothers forecast u.s. dollar against the yuan by the end of will reach 7.8. 2. nominal exchange rates are still lowe

12、r than the actual balance. in recent years, vast majority of experts and scholars both at home and abroad that the yuan nominal exchange rates have a greater degree of underestimation. such as: zhang zhibo (2005) research results show that, according to the relative purchasing power parity theory me

13、eting the real equilibrium exchange rate of rmb to change before 6.97, if the official exchange rate in 1997 as the base rate estimate was 7.3; lu zhiyong et al (2005) that the rmb exchange reform before the actual 15% -20% undervalued; u.s. officials and most scholars generally believe that the yua

14、n is undervalued real -25%, 15%. to september 21, 2006, compared with the prior foreign exchange reform, the rmb appreciation of the actual accumulated only 4.16%. 3. offshore rmb ndf prices show the expected appreciation of the rmb. foreign exchange reform since the offshore ndf market, one-year do

15、llar / yuan ndf discount is basically over in 3000, despite the premium from the july 22 high of around 4,000 points contraction for the 31 october of 2920 points, but thereafter but there is growing, to september 19, 2006 up to 3500 points. as the offshore rmb ndf and domestic foreign exchange mark

16、et and domestic and foreign interest rate transmission mechanism is not effective, the rmb ndf offset interest rate parity does not meet the rmb ndf market prices reflect the markets equilibrium real exchange rate of rmb to judge. 4. in the long run, sound economic growth momentum strong support for

17、 the rmb exchange rate expectations. our 1979-2004 annual average economic growth rate up to 9.6%, much higher than the same period in the u.s. and world growth. asian development bank expects china 2006 and 2007 the economy will grow by 10% and 9.5%. taking all factors, it is estimated in the futur

18、e a longer period (eg 5-10 years) the chinese economy is still possible to achieve average annual growth rate of around 7%, good economic growth support long-term strength of the rmb exchange rate expectations. second, chinas foreign exchange reform on the influence of foreign trade enterprises (a)

19、based on the analysis of import and export elasticity theory. the traditional theory is that exchange rate flexibility, exchange rate changes on the impact of trade is conditional, it depends on the elasticity of demand for their export and import demand elasticities. but many scholars believe that

20、chinas import and export elasticities and the absolute value is less than or close to 1, basically does not meet the marshall - lerner condition, such as: zhang (2001) by regression analysis of 1985-1998 data obtained chinas progress, the export elasticity was -0.0566 and -0.0057, import and export

21、flexibility, and the absolute value is only 0.0623. in accordance with the conclusions inferred rise in the rmbs rise, chinas import and export of devaluation on the trade balance does not have to improve the effect. in addition, some experts calculated the absolute value of the import and export el

22、asticities and greater than 1 (daizu xiang, 1997; pham, 2004, etc.). however, marshall - lerner condition is usually applied to trade a small country, while opening up economic power may not be applicable, such as: pham (2004) on the view that marshall - lerner condition does not apply to china. acc

23、ording to pham calculated long-term export elasticity of -0.8579 in china, the absolute value of less than 1, indicating the price appreciation of the renminbi to increase in the rate of exports over exports the rate of decrease, but increased exports, assuming a 10% revaluation would make chinese e

24、xports increased 1.421%, the rmb appreciation will lead to further increase chinas trade surplus. (b) based on the characteristics of processing trade, significant type structure of import and export trade. 1. chinas foreign trade structure: type characteristics of processing trade. processing trade

25、 exports in recent years, the proportion of total merchandise exports in china has close to 55%, while processing trade with imported foreign equipment, and general trade in raw materials and capital goods imports account for china 60% of total imports, processing trade and foreign investment enterp

26、rises in china made great contribution to the goods trade surplus. 2. remarkable features of the processing trade type import and export in china have a close relationship. renyong ju (2003) on the relationship between chinas import and export inspection, their research shows that the flexibility of

27、 chinas imports to exports was 0.818, which imports nearly 82% after re-exported after processing, that appreciation of the renminbi is conducive to imports, thus help re-exported. xu hui (2005), according to the chinese quarter of the year 1994-2003 statistics on our progress, cointegration relatio

28、nship between exports and granger causality analyzed, considered: imports because exports of granger, 而且 from the long run, chinas imports chukou significant impact (positive correlation), import almost finished explaining export. see, rmb appreciation suiran which commodity export of foreign curren

29、cy price rise, but in the processing trade are two out, most raw materials are imported, the import prices and the appreciation of the renminbi will decrease business costs, can be offset by appreciation of the rmb to export most of the negative effects. after the exchange reform, foreign direct inv

30、estment inflows increased rather than decreased trend from january to april 2006, actual foreign direct investment in china amounted to 18.5 billion u.s. dollars, compared with an increase of 5.8% over the same period in 2005. see, the rmb appreciation on chinas processing trade, production, export

31、and little effect on the trade balance. (c) the relationship between trade balance and exchange rate for further analysis: based on the empirical research literature. in recent years, many chinese scholars to study by empirical trade balance and exchange rate fluctuations related degree, such as: xi

32、e zhiyong (1999) by 1996-1997 data analysis, that our country into, correlation coefficient of the export exchange rate is only 0.29 and 0.35, respectively; xie jianguo (2002) had on the 1978-2000 data analysis, that the exchange rate changes can explain trading income support 3%; china pr et al (20

33、04) used 1978-2002 data on chinas balance of payments and trade relationship between the rmb exchange rate has been studied, that the judge not only the coefficient between the two low (only 0.216), and cointegration and granger causality analysis revealed that there is no balance between the yuan r

34、ise (depreciate) the value of chinas trade balance of payments impact is very limited. above all evidence shows that our trade balance and exchange rates are not high correlation . third, the rmb appreciation on the positive impact of chinas import and export trade (a) help improve trade conditions

35、and adjust the industrial structure. rmb exchange rate would force the export of labor-intensive and technology-intensive industry, enterprise development, increasing value-added export products. meanwhile, the yuan appreciation would reduce the cost of imports of advanced equipment, help to promote

36、 export structure and industrial structure upgrade. (b) reduce the trade surplus, and the major trading countries to improve trade relations. rmb appreciation could increase chinas total imports properly, help reduce the trade surplus, to ease relations with major trading partners and the promotion

37、of the harmonious development of economy and trade. (c) is conducive to china for raw materials, energy products imports. in the international high energy and raw material prices, rmb appreciation will help to improve the international purchasing power, not only conducive to absorption of foreign re

38、sources and domestic resources will ease the bottleneck, reduce our imports of energy, raw material burden. fourth, changes in the rmb exchange rate system, the negative impact on the import and export trade (a) appreciation of the yuan too quickly lead to decline in export competitiveness. if the r

39、apid appreciation of the rmb, labor-intensive enterprises to maintain a profit, export prices will increase, which will weaken its international competitiveness. (b) the impact of the economic benefits of import and export enterprises, increase foreign exchange risk. from the new exchange system is

40、running a 14-month performance, its flexibility is gradually revealed to the market at any time in chinas foreign trade exchange rate movements over the thunder of the wave, the international trade costs, thus hedging the foreign exchange market efficiency features and hedge higher demands. (c) appr

41、eciation of the rmb, increasing pressure outside. as the rmb appreciation on china to improve trade balance effect is not so rigid with my balance of payments surplus, in this sense, appreciation of the rmb will continue to form the external pressure that external pressure surplus re revaluation sur

42、plus pressure external further appreciation of the yuan again . . so in the long term, if the yield to external pressure may lead to a vicious climbed, the yuan. rmb revaluation should be taken to a small extent, chronic, long-term of appreciation of the principles, avoid large, rapid-style apprecia

43、tion. 中文翻譯：一人民幣匯改的核心內(nèi)容及其表現(xiàn)和趨勢(shì)分析 (一)2005年人民幣匯改的核心內(nèi)容主要體現(xiàn)在以下方面:一是改革匯率生成機(jī)制自2005年7月21日起,人民幣開(kāi)始實(shí)行以市場(chǎng)供求為基礎(chǔ)參考一籃子貨幣進(jìn)行調(diào)節(jié)有管理的浮動(dòng)匯率制度二是適當(dāng)釋放人民幣升值的壓力即對(duì)人民幣幣值作小幅的升值調(diào)整,人民幣對(duì)美元升值2.1%三是適當(dāng)擴(kuò)大人民幣匯率的浮動(dòng)區(qū)間允許人民幣兌美元匯率日波幅為上下浮動(dòng)0.3%;將人民幣與非美元貨幣匯率的浮動(dòng)區(qū)間擴(kuò)大到3%;擴(kuò)大銀行自行定價(jià)的權(quán)限,現(xiàn)匯和現(xiàn)鈔買(mǎi)賣(mài)價(jià)在基準(zhǔn)匯率上下1%-4%以內(nèi)由銀行自行決定,而且可以一日多價(jià) (二)人民幣匯改后的表現(xiàn):匯率彈性開(kāi)始凸現(xiàn)和貿(mào)易順差

44、繼續(xù)擴(kuò)大人民幣匯改14個(gè)月以來(lái)人民幣對(duì)美元匯率的基本走勢(shì),基本呈現(xiàn)“大漲小跌”的緩慢盤(pán)升走勢(shì)的特點(diǎn):(1)緩慢盤(pán)升從匯率改革至2006年9月21日的291個(gè)交易日中,只有2個(gè)交易日低于8.11,最低為2005年7月27日的8.1128,比8.11貶值0.03%,最高為2006年9月14日的7.9461,比8.11升2.06%,累計(jì)波幅為2%(2)匯率彈性凸現(xiàn),實(shí)現(xiàn)了雙向浮動(dòng)如:對(duì)美元,與上一個(gè)交易日對(duì)比,人民幣在291個(gè)交易日中有191個(gè)交易日上浮,100個(gè)交易日下浮(3)貿(mào)易順差繼續(xù)擴(kuò)大2005年我國(guó)貿(mào)易順差高達(dá)1019億美元,其中下半年貿(mào)易順差達(dá)623億美元,比匯改前的上半年貿(mào)易順差的39

45、6億美元還多226億美元 (三)人民幣匯率變化的未來(lái)走勢(shì)分析不管是從短期還是從中長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看,人民幣匯率仍然主要是升值的預(yù)期: 1.不斷擴(kuò)大的國(guó)際收支順差是導(dǎo)致人民幣匯率中短期升值預(yù)期的主要因素?fù)?jù)國(guó)家有關(guān)資料顯示,2005年我國(guó)貿(mào)易順差高達(dá)1019億美元,資本項(xiàng)目順差也達(dá)630億美元;2006年1-8月仍分別實(shí)現(xiàn)貿(mào)易順差累計(jì)達(dá)956.50億美元和引進(jìn)fdi371.92億美元,分別比上年同期增長(zhǎng)75%和5.8%估計(jì)2006年全年貿(mào)易順差仍將超過(guò)1400億美元,到2006年底外匯儲(chǔ)備將接近1萬(wàn)億美元巨額的國(guó)際收支雙順差和外匯儲(chǔ)備,形成人民幣較強(qiáng)的升值預(yù)期:亞行預(yù)測(cè)年內(nèi)人民幣將升值5.8%左右;著名全球

46、投行雷曼兄弟預(yù)測(cè)年底美元兌人民幣將達(dá)到7.8 2.名義匯率仍低于實(shí)際均衡匯率近年來(lái),國(guó)內(nèi)外絕大多數(shù)專家和學(xué)者均認(rèn)為人民幣名義匯率存在較大程度的低估如:張志柏(2005)的研究成果顯示,根據(jù)相對(duì)購(gòu)買(mǎi)力平價(jià)理論,匯改前人民幣實(shí)際均衡匯率為6.97,若以1997年官方匯率為基期匯率估算則為7.3;魯志勇等(2005)認(rèn)為,匯改前人民幣實(shí)際被低估15%-20%;美國(guó)官方和絕大多數(shù)學(xué)者普遍認(rèn)為人民幣實(shí)際被低估15%-25%到2006年9月21日,同人民幣匯改前相比,人民幣累計(jì)實(shí)際只升值4.16% 3.境外人民幣ndf價(jià)格顯示人民幣升值的預(yù)期人民幣匯改以來(lái),境外ndf市場(chǎng)1年期美元/人民幣ndf貼水基本上

47、在3000點(diǎn)以上,盡管貼水由7月22日最高時(shí)的4000點(diǎn)左右收縮為10月31日的2920點(diǎn),但爾后卻又出現(xiàn)擴(kuò)大的趨勢(shì),到2006年9月19日達(dá)3500點(diǎn)由于境外人民幣ndf與國(guó)內(nèi)外匯市場(chǎng)和國(guó)內(nèi)外利率沒(méi)有有效的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制,人民幣ndf不符合抵補(bǔ)利率平價(jià),人民幣ndf市場(chǎng)價(jià)格反映了市場(chǎng)對(duì)人民幣均衡實(shí)際匯率的判斷 4.從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看,良好的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)態(tài)勢(shì)支撐人民幣匯率走強(qiáng)的預(yù)期我國(guó)1979-2004年年均經(jīng)濟(jì)增速高達(dá)9.6%,大大高于美國(guó)和世界同期的增長(zhǎng)速度亞洲開(kāi)發(fā)銀行預(yù)計(jì),中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)2006和2007年將分別增長(zhǎng)10%和9.5%左右綜合各方面因素,估計(jì)今后較長(zhǎng)時(shí)期(如5-10年)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)仍然有可能實(shí)現(xiàn)年均7

48、%左右的增長(zhǎng)速度,良好的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)態(tài)勢(shì)支撐人民幣匯率長(zhǎng)期走強(qiáng)的預(yù)期 二人民幣匯改對(duì)我國(guó)外貿(mào)進(jìn)出口企業(yè)影響的分析 (一)基于進(jìn)出口彈性理論的分析傳統(tǒng)的匯率彈性理論認(rèn)為,匯率的變動(dòng)對(duì)貿(mào)易的影響是有條件的,它取決于本國(guó)產(chǎn)品的出口需求彈性和進(jìn)口需求彈性 但是不少學(xué)者認(rèn)為我國(guó)的進(jìn)出口彈性之和的絕對(duì)值小于或接近1,基本不符合馬歇爾-勒納條件,如:張明(2001)通過(guò)對(duì)1985-1998年數(shù)據(jù)的回歸分析,得出我國(guó)進(jìn)出口彈性分別為-0.0566和-0.0057,進(jìn)出口彈性之和的絕對(duì)值僅為0.0623按照上升結(jié)論推斷,人民幣的升貶值對(duì)我國(guó)進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易收支不具備改善效應(yīng)另外一些專家計(jì)算出的進(jìn)出口彈性之和的絕對(duì)值大于1(戴祖祥,1997;范金,2004等)但是,馬歇爾-勒納條件通常對(duì)貿(mào)易小國(guó)適用,而對(duì)開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)大國(guó)卻未必適用,如:范金(2004)就認(rèn)為馬歇爾-勒納條件不適用于中國(guó)根據(jù)范金計(jì)算的我國(guó)中長(zhǎng)期出口彈性為-0.8579,絕對(duì)值小于1,說(shuō)明人民幣升值使