中國的匯率政策和亞洲貿(mào)易外文翻譯

1、1本科畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯外文題目：CHINA S EXCHANGE RATE POLICY AND ASIANTRADE出處：New Finan ce,2009(9)作者：Alicia Garcia-Herrero, Tuuli Koivu原文:AbstractThis paper shows empirically that China Srade balanee is sensitive to fluctuati ons in the real effective exeha nge rate of the renmin bi. However, the eurre nt size of t

2、he trade surplus is such that exeha nge rate policy alone will probably not be able to address the imbala nee. The pote ntial reduct ion in the trade surplus result ing from an in crease in the renminbi exeha nge rate is limited mai nly becauseChi nese imports do not react as expected to a renminbi

3、appreciation they tend to fall rather tha n in crease. By estimat ing bilateral import equati ons for Chi na and its major trade part ners, we find that thereact ion for imports is gen erally eon firmed for Chi na s tradewith Southeast Asian countries. That result might be attributable to Asia verti

4、cal in tegratio n, as a large share of Chin ese imports from Southeast Asia are re-exported.We also find that total exports from a nu mber of Asia n eoun tries react n egatively to a renminbi appreciation, which points to a dependence of A sian eountries exports onthose of China.Keywords: Chi na, tr

5、ade, exports, real exeha nge rateI. IntroductionChi na share in world trade has in creased extremely rapidly duri ng the past years. In fact, it is already one of the largest exporters in the world, together with Germa ny and the Un ited States.Un til rece ntly, China trade bala nee was very close t

6、o zero. Accord ing to Chi nas customs statistics, its trade surplus amoun ted to mere USD 32 billi on (or 1.7% of GDP) in 2004 (Graph 1). However, si nee 2005 the trade surplus has balloo ned: it reached nearly USD 180 billio n in 2006 (close to 7% of GDP) and in creased further in 2007, to more tha

7、n 10% of GDP.On the one hand, Chinese policymakers appear to be maintaining an artificially low exchange rate 2for the renminbi so as to profit from external demand and achieve a much needed high growth rate. On the other hand, given that prices may still play only a limited role in supply and deman

8、d decisions in China s transitional economy,doubts have been raised that the exchange rate can be an effective tool in reducing the trade surplus.Linked to the first argument is the fact that China is facing strong pressure from industrial countries to appreciate the renminbi. The real effective exc

9、hange rate (REER) of the renminbi rose steeply from 1994 until end-1997 but tended to decline after that until the move to a more flexible exchange rate regime was announced in July 2005. Thereafter the renminbi has appreciated somewhat in real terms. The questi on is whether and to what exte nt the

10、 sharp in crease in the trade surplus can be explained by such a real depreciation.The large size of China s trade smurapklues the issue important not only for China but also for the rest of the world. The existing literature is not conclusive. The lack of appropriate data and sufficiently long time

11、 series has discouraged research on the link between the renminbi exchange rate and Chinas trade. Since the summer of2003, when discussions on the undervaluation of the renminbi came to the forefront, research on China s exchange rate policy has blossomed, but much of it has focused on estimating th

12、e long-run equilibrium exchange rate for China or exploring what kind of exchange rate regime best suits the Chinese economy. While both questions are clearly relevant, the most urgent issue given the size of global imbalances is whether China should use currency appreciation as a tool to reduce its

13、 huge trade surplus.Our paper analyzes this question empirically using cointegration analysis. According to our results, a real appreciation of the renminbi would reduce Chinas trade surplus in the long run, but the effect would be limited. The relatively small impact compared with the size of the i

14、mbalance is mainly explained by the peculiar price elasticity we find for imports: namely, Chinese imports are negatively affected by the renminbi s real appreciation. By estimating bilateral import equations,we find that imports from Asian countries tend to fall but not those from other countries.

15、This apparently counterintuitive result might well be explained by the vertical integration that characterises intraregional trade in Asia: Chinese imports from the rest of Southeast Asia are mostly geared towards re-export. In addition, weshow evidence that the Southeast Asian countries do not seem

16、 able to compensate for the reduction in their exports to China by increasing exports to other countries, as their total exports are generally negatively affected by the renminbi s appreciat other words, exports from Southeast Asian countries seem to be a complement to exports from China rather than

17、 a substitute for them.3The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 reviews the existing literature. Section 3 describes the methodology and the data used. Section 4 presents the results on how China s exports and imports react to changes in the exchange rateand demand. In Section 5, we

18、 dig deeper into the issue of why Chinese imports do not get a boost from the renminbi asppreciation; to do so, we estimate bilateral trade equations with China s main trade partners and then analyse the export equations ofselected Asian countries. Section 6 concludes.IV . Results for China s import

19、 and export equationsAs a preliminary step, we test for the order of integration of the variables included in our analysis. We use the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) tests for the existence of a unit root. Nearly all variables are found to be non-stationary in levels but stationary in first differenc

20、es. We then test for the existence of cointegration vectors using the Johansen procedure. We find at least one cointegrating vector for each variable group. As proposed by Phillips and Loretan (1991),the presence of the cointegrating vectors allows us to estimate a regression of the lagged determina

21、nts and their differences through a non-linear least squares approach. Such an approach will yield unbiased and consistent estimates of the long-run and short-run parameters.Besides regressions on export and import equations for our full sample (199442005), we also ran such regressions for a shorter

22、 period (20005) that concentrates on the period of WTO influence. In both cases, we consider it important to distinguish between processed and ordinary trade and, therefore, run separate equations for each of them in the case of both exports and imports. The maximum number of short-term lags introdu

23、ced in the equations was three, and we ultimately included only those that were statistically significant.The full results for the export equations can be found in Table A2 in the Appendix.16 As expected, long-run exchange rate elasticities of China exports - both processed and ordinary are negative

24、 and significant in our full sample and also after WTO entry. When appropriately transformed (see Table 2), the estimated long-run impact of the real exchange rate is around -.3 for processedexports forboth periods. For ordinary exports, it drops from .3 measured for the whole period to -.6 for the

25、more recent period. Our results are very close to those found by other authors using cointegration analysis ( -.5 for total exports in Lau et al (2004) and -1.3 in Shu and Yip (2006). They are also similar to the estimated export price elasticities for major industrial countries ( -1.5 and -1.6 for

26、the United States and the United Kingdom, respectively, according to Hooper et al (1998).For both ordinary and processedexports, the long-run positive effect of world demand on Chinese exports is very small and not statistically significant in our full sample, but it does become 4significant after W

27、TO membership. That result is in line with the idea that China was facing considerable barriers to profiting from other countries growth before its WTO entry. In addition, for the most recent sample, the income elasticity of Chinese exports is very close to 1, as expected.The estimated coefficients

28、of the import equations are shown in Table A3 in the Appendix. Demand factors seem to play a relatively moderate role in explaining past imports. In the later subsample, imports for processing do react positively to external demand, measured by processed exports, and domestic industrial output incre

29、ases ordinary imports, as expected.As one would expect, the FDI stock appears to have a positive effect in the long run both on ordinary imports and on imports for processing. Finally, a reduction in import tariffs seems to foster imports for processing in the long run.19 As for exports, dummies for

30、 the Chinese New Year as well as for December were significant in most cases.Finally, the exchange rate elasticity of imports is always negative and generally significant. The only exception is imports for processing in the latter subperiod, for which the negative coefficient on the exchange rate is

31、 significant only at the 15% level. The exchange rate has not only a direct link to imports for processing but also an indirect link via processedexports. In other words, a renminbi real appreciation tends to reduce imports rather than to increase them. Although counterintuitive at first sight, such

32、 negative elasticity has already been reported in some of the most recent literature, such as Marquez and Schindler (2006). The finding basically implies that imports -even ordinary ones -are more sensitive to the lowering of exports induced by the renminbi real appreciation than to a rise in purcha

33、sing power.VI. ConclusionsDuring the past few years, there has been growing discussion both in China andin international forums on the desirability of a renminbi appreciation. Many have argued that exchange rate policy would not serve the purpose of reducing China s large trade surplus. This paper s

34、hows empirically that China strade balance is sensitive to fluctuations in the real effective exchange rate. In fact, estimating long-run elasticities of Chinese exports and imports to changes in the renminbi s realeffective exchange rate for the period from 1994 to end-2005, we find strong evidence

35、 that a real appreciation reduces exports substantially in the long run. The result holds both for processed exports (i.e. transformed and re-exported goods) and ordinary exports. However, real currency appreciation also reduces imports to China, which limits the net impact of exchange rate policy o

36、n the trade surplus.On the basis of our estimated elasticities for the period beginning at the point (2000) that WTO entry for China was known, a 5% real appreciation of the effective exchange value of the renminbi -5other things given -would have led to about a 7% reduction in export volume. When w

37、e take into account the direct link from the exchange rate to imports as well as the indirect link (from a decreasein processed exports to imports for processing), the total volume of imports would have decreased by about 4%. Based on these estimates, the trade surplus would have shrunk almost by on

38、e fourth in 2005, from about USD 100 billion to less than USD 80 billion. However, these figures have to be treated with extreme care as they represent only very rough calculations that do not take into account, for example, the pass-through effects of the exchange rate on export and import prices a

39、nd thus on the trade surplus. It is likely that our figures overestimate the reduction in the trade surplus because, in the case of an appreciation, the export prices denominated in foreign currency would probably increase so that the actual impact on the export value would actually be smaller. On t

40、he other hand, fluctuations in the renminbi exchange rate may not influence all import prices, eg the world market price for oil, so that the pass-through effect on Chinese import prices could be much smaller. Unfortunately, pass-through effects in China are difficult to estimate because of a lack o

41、f time series data on export and import prices.Although it is not completely new, our finding that China s imports decrease as a result of an appreciation of its currency prompted a deeper investigation. We explored the issue further by estimating bilateral equations for Chinas trade with its major

42、trade partners. It seems that the renminbi bilateral real appreciation against the currency of a trade partner generally reduces China s imports, particularly from other Asian countries. The result for Chinese imports from Asia is probably explained by the high degree of vertical integration of the

43、exporting sectors of Asian countries. Such Asian production networks make products from other Asian countries more of a complement to China sexports than a substitute for them. This hypothesis is supported by our results show ing that total exports from Asia n coun tries - and not only exports to Ch

44、ina are negatively affected by a renminbi real appreciation.These findings raise concerns in terms of Asia sreaction to a sudden appreciation of the renminbi, particularly if other Asian currencies also appreciate. Although this study concentrates on only the volumes of imports and exports-so the co

45、nclusions cannot be comprehensive - it does underscore the importanee of investigating further potential effects from a renminbi real appreciation and different combinations of exchange rate policies in Asia. A number of papers on this issue have already been published, but studies using fresh data

46、are needed.Finally, although Chinese exports have clearly benefited from fast economic growth in advanced economies, we found the income elasticity of Chinese imports to be rather low. It seemsthat exports to China are more dependent on foreign direct investment than economic activity in China. Howe

47、ver, this characteristic can change in the near future if the composition of Chinese imports starts shifting from raw materials, parts and components and investment goods towards goods for domestic consumption.6譯 文：中國的匯率政策和亞洲貿(mào)易 摘要 本文的實證顯示了中國的貿(mào)易平衡對人民幣實際有效匯率波動的風(fēng)險是敏 感的。然而，匯率政策本身可能無法改變當(dāng)前貿(mào)易順差的大小。在貿(mào)易中，人民

48、幣匯率上升而減少盈余的潛力是有限的， 主要是因為中國的進口沒有作出預(yù)計的 反應(yīng)，其事實是人民幣升值導(dǎo)致進口趨于下降而不是增加。 通過中國和其主要貿(mào) 易伙伴的雙邊貿(mào)易進口方程組的估算， 我們發(fā)現(xiàn)了中國與東南亞國家的貿(mào)易中進 口的通常反應(yīng)。 這一結(jié)果可能是由于亞洲的垂直整合， 且東南亞從中國進口的產(chǎn) 品的大量份額是再出口。 我們還發(fā)現(xiàn)， 一些亞洲國家的出口總額對人民幣升值的 反應(yīng)消極，它指出了亞洲國家對中國出口的依賴。關(guān)鍵詞 : 中國、貿(mào)易、出口、實際匯率一、介紹在過去幾年， 中國在世界貿(mào)易中的份額增長非常迅速。 且事實上，除德國和 美國外，它已經(jīng)是世界上最大的出口國之一。而近年來，中國的貿(mào)易平衡

49、都非常接近于零。據(jù)中國海關(guān)統(tǒng)計， 2004 年其 貿(mào)易盈余總額僅為320億美元（或1.7 %的GDP （圖1）。然而，自2005年以來 貿(mào)易順差激增：它在2006年達到近1800億美元（接近GDP勺7%）,2007年進 一步上升到超過GDP勺10%。一方面，中國的決策者似乎堅持人為的壓低人民幣匯率， 有利于增加外部需 求，從而實現(xiàn)必要的高增長率。 另一方面， 因為價格在中國過渡經(jīng)濟的供給和需 求決定中發(fā)揮的作用是有限的， 使得有人質(zhì)疑人民幣匯率是減少貿(mào)易順差的有效 工具這個觀點。聯(lián)系到第一個參數(shù)可知道中國正面臨著工業(yè)化國家的強烈要求人民幣升值 的壓力是一個事實。 從 1994年至 1997年底

50、， 人民幣實際有效匯率急劇上升， 而 后呈下降趨勢直到 2005 年 7 月公布了一個更靈活的匯率制度。此后，人民幣略 有升值的實況。問題在于如何以及在何種程度可以通過這樣的實際貶值解釋貿(mào)易 盈余的大幅增加。中國的貿(mào)易盈余之大，不僅引起了中國甚至是世界其他地區(qū)的問題 , 且現(xiàn)有 的文獻也沒有定論。 適當(dāng)?shù)臄?shù)據(jù)和足夠長的時間序列的缺乏阻礙了人民幣匯率和 中國的貿(mào)易之間的聯(lián)系的研究。自 2003 年夏天開始對人民幣低估的討論到了最 前沿，中國的匯率政策的研究已經(jīng)展開， 但大多研究集中在中國匯率長期均衡的 估計或什么樣的匯率制度最符合中國的經(jīng)濟。 這兩個問題顯然是相關(guān)的， 但對于 全球失衡的規(guī)模而言

51、最緊迫的問題是中國是否應(yīng)該將貨幣升值作為減少其龐大 的貿(mào)易盈余的工具。7我們通過協(xié)整向量實證分析這個問題。 而根據(jù)我們的結(jié)果， 人民幣實際升值 會減少中國長期的貿(mào)易順差， 但其影響將是有限的。 特殊的價格彈性則主要解釋 了對比于不平衡的規(guī)模而言 , 其對進口有較小的影響 , 即：人民幣實際升值對中國 進口的影響是負(fù)的。 通過雙邊進口方程的估算， 我們發(fā)現(xiàn)， 從亞洲國家進口的數(shù) 量趨于下降， 但其他國家的進口量則不變。 這結(jié)果很可能被解釋為縱向一體化在 亞洲區(qū)域內(nèi)貿(mào)易的特點：從中國進口的大多商品將從其他東南亞國家再出口, 這顯然有悖常理。 此外， 我們顯示的證據(jù)表明， 東南亞國家似乎沒有能夠通過

52、增加 出口到其他國家來減少中國的出口， 因為人民幣升值對于他們的總出口的影響是 負(fù)面的。換句話說， 來自東南亞國家的出口似乎是一個補充， 而不是中國出口的 替代品。本文的其余部分組織如下。 第2節(jié)回顧現(xiàn)有的文獻。 第3節(jié)描述的方法和使 用的數(shù)據(jù)。第 4 節(jié)中國出口和進口如何應(yīng)對匯率和需求變化及結(jié)果。在第 5 節(jié)， 進一步深入為什么中國的進口沒有從人民幣升值得到增加的問題 ; 我們運用中國 與主要貿(mào)易伙伴的雙邊貿(mào)易方程的估計， 然后分析部分亞洲國家的出口方程。 第 6 節(jié)總結(jié)。四、中國進口和出口方程的結(jié)論作為第一步， 我們?yōu)橐惑w化的變量順序進行測試以及分析。 我們對其單位根 的存在進行增廣Dic

53、key-Fuller (ADF檢驗。幾乎所有的變量的水平都被發(fā)現(xiàn) 是非平穩(wěn)， 但在一階差分是平穩(wěn)的。 然后，我們使用約翰森程序測試協(xié)整向量的 存在。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)每組變量至少有一個協(xié)整向量。 正如菲利普斯和 Loretan( 1991)， 協(xié)整向量的存在使我們通過一個非線性最小二乘法 , 提出了回歸滯后的估計。這 種方法將對長期和短期的參數(shù)產(chǎn)生無偏和一致的估計。除了全樣本( 1994-2005)的出口和進口回歸方程，我們也調(diào)查了一段較短 期間( 2000-2005 年)的回歸，主要集中于世界貿(mào)易組織的影響。在這兩種情況 下，我們認(rèn)為，重要的是區(qū)分一般貿(mào)易和加工貿(mào)易，因此，就兩者在出口和進口 的情況各

54、列單獨的方程。 在短期最大數(shù)量的滯后方程中引入三個， 而最終也只包 括那些顯著性的。出口方程的全部結(jié)果顯示在表中的附錄 A2。正如人們所預(yù)料的那樣，在我們 的全部或加入 WTC后的樣本中,長期匯率彈性不管是對中國的加工出口還是一般 貿(mào)易都有著消極且重要的影響。當(dāng)適當(dāng)?shù)霓D(zhuǎn)換（見表2）時，實際匯率對兩個期間的加工出口的長期影響估計將圍繞 -1.3 波動。而對于一般出口，則被測量出 從整個期間的 -2.3 至最近時期的 -1.6 。我們的研究結(jié)果非常接近其他學(xué)者通過 協(xié)整分析的結(jié)論（如 , 出口總額的 -1.5 ,Lau （2004） 以及-1.3 ,Shu and Yip （2006）。他們也類似

55、對主要的工業(yè)化國家的出口價格彈性進行估計（美國和 英國分別是 -1.5 和-81.6, Hooper（1998） ）。對于這兩種一般貿(mào)易和加工出口， 世界需求對中國出口的長期積極影響是非 常小的，甚至在我們的全樣本統(tǒng)計上沒有意義， 但它確實在中國成為世貿(mào)組織成 員后有顯著影響。結(jié)果符合在入WT龍前中國想從其他國家的增長中獲利面臨著 相當(dāng)大的障礙這一想法。 此外，在最近的樣本中， 中國出口收入彈性都非常接近 1，符合市場預(yù)期。其進口方程的系數(shù)估計見表中附錄 A3o需求因素似乎對過去的進口有著相對 穩(wěn)定的作用。 在后來的子樣本中， 加工的進口對外部需求作出積極反應(yīng)， 以加工 出口來衡量國內(nèi)工業(yè)產(chǎn)出

56、，一般進口增加，符合市場預(yù)期。正如人們所預(yù)期的那樣， 外國直接投資存量似乎對加工進口以及一般進口在 長遠(yuǎn)上都產(chǎn)生積極影響。 最后，削減進口關(guān)稅，似乎有利于促進長期的加工進口。 而對于出口方面，仿制品在農(nóng)歷新年以及十二月的大多數(shù)情況下是很重要的。最后，匯率彈性對進口總是具普遍的消極效果。 唯一的例外是在加工進口的 后期，匯率負(fù)系數(shù)對其的影響在 15的水平。匯率不僅與加工進口有直接聯(lián)系， 而且與加工出口有間接聯(lián)系。 換句話說，人民幣實際升值更趨向于減少進口， 而 不是增加。 雖然乍看起來違反直覺， 但這種消極彈性已經(jīng)在近期的一些文獻中體 現(xiàn)，如 Marquez and Schindler （200

57、6） 。這一發(fā)現(xiàn)意味著進口甚至一般的進口 對由人民幣實際升值而不是購買力上升所引起的出口下降更敏感。六、結(jié)論在過去的幾年里，中國和國際論壇中對人民幣升值的可取性的討論都出現(xiàn)了 增長。許多人認(rèn)為， 匯率政策將無助于減少中國的巨額貿(mào)易順差。 本文的實證顯 示中國的貿(mào)易平衡對實際有效匯率波動是敏感的。事實上， 1994年至 2005年年 底, 就人民幣實際有效匯率的變動對中國的出口和進口的長期彈性的估計，我們 發(fā)現(xiàn)了一個有力的證據(jù)， 實際升值會大幅降低長期出口。 該結(jié)果對加工出口 （即 貨物轉(zhuǎn)化和轉(zhuǎn)口貿(mào)易） 和一般出口都有效。 然而， 真正的貨幣升值也降低了中國 的進口，這限制了匯率政策對貿(mào)易盈余的

58、凈影響。我們對該期間彈性的估計的基礎(chǔ)開始于 2000 年即中國進入世界貿(mào)易組織 時， 5的人民幣實際有效匯率升值 （其他特定的情況除外 ） 將導(dǎo)致約 7的出口 量減少。當(dāng)我們考慮到匯率對進口的直接聯(lián)系， 以及間接聯(lián)系時 （從一個加工出 口減少成為加工進口） ，發(fā)現(xiàn)進口總額減少約 4。在這些估計的基礎(chǔ)上， 2005 年的貿(mào)易盈余將縮水四分之一左右，從 1000 億降到不足 800 億美元。不過，這 9些數(shù)字必須極其謹(jǐn)慎地對待，因為它們只代表粗略計算，不考慮，例如，出口和 進口價格引起的匯率變動對貿(mào)易盈余的影響。 我們的數(shù)字可能高估了貿(mào)易盈余的 減少，因為在升值的情況下， 出口價格以外幣計價將可能

59、增加， 這樣對出口值的 實際影響會更小。另一方面，人民幣匯率的波動可能不會影響所有的進口價格， 如世界石油的市場價格， 對中國進口價格的影響可能會小得多。 且不幸的是， 對 中國的影響是很難估計，因為關(guān)于出口和進口價格的時間序列數(shù)據(jù)的不足。雖然不是全新的，但通過更深入的調(diào)查我們發(fā)現(xiàn)其貨幣升值的結(jié)果引發(fā)了中 國的進口減少。我們通過估算中國與主要貿(mào)易伙伴的雙邊貿(mào)易方程進一步探討了 這個問題。 看來，人民幣對貿(mào)易伙伴貨幣的實際升值會普遍降低中國的進口， 特 別是來自于其他亞洲國家。 對該來自于亞洲的中國進口的結(jié)果可能的解釋是亞洲 國家的出口部門縱向一體化程度很高。 這些其他亞洲國家生產(chǎn)的產(chǎn)品只是一種補 充，他們不能取代中國的出口。 而我們的實證支持這個假設(shè)， 人民幣實際升值對 亞洲國家的出口而不只對中國出口的影響是負(fù)的。這些發(fā)現(xiàn)引起了人們對人民幣突然升值時亞洲反應(yīng)的關(guān)注， 特別是如果其他 亞洲貨幣也升值時。雖然這項研究集中于進口和出口的價值 （ 這樣的結(jié)論不夠全 面）但它進一步強調(diào)了人民幣實際升值和亞洲匯率政策的不同組合的潛在影響的 重要性。美國對該問題的論文數(shù)量已經(jīng)公布，但研究使用新數(shù)據(jù)是必要