168營運(yùn)資本和設(shè)備貸款的信用風(fēng)險

1、credit risks in working capital and equipment loans營運(yùn)資本和設(shè)備貸款的信用風(fēng)險alexandru cebotariworking capital why is it so important營運(yùn)資本：為何這么重要？the financial element of risk is defined as the inability of cash generation to:風(fēng)險的財務(wù)元素被定義為現(xiàn)金流量不能達(dá)到以下情況：1.maintain working capital 維持運(yùn)營資本2.maintain productive assets 維

2、持經(jīng)營性資產(chǎn)3.meet debt service in schedule 不能定期還本付息4.pay reasonable dividends 支付合理股息5.maintain some borrowing power 維持一定的借款能力cash generation is defined as profits plus depreciation. is it true?現(xiàn)金流量被定義為利潤加上折舊， 正確嗎？operating expenses on the net income statement include depreciation expense, which does not

3、require a cash outlay凈損益表上的運(yùn)營開支包括折舊開支（不需要現(xiàn)金支出）decrease in current assets, other then cash, have positive effects on cash flows, and increases in current assets have a negative effect.流動資產(chǎn)而非現(xiàn)金的減少對于現(xiàn)金流有積極的影響，而流動資產(chǎn)的增加則帶來消極的影響an increase in the current liabilities has a positive effect, and a decrease i

4、n current liabilities has a negative effect. 流動負(fù)債的增加有積極的影響，反之則有消極影響evaluating historical performance評價過往表現(xiàn)income statement損益表損益表profitability?盈利能力return on equity?凈資產(chǎn)收益率non-current assets非流動非流動資產(chǎn)資產(chǎn)sources and uses of funds資金的來資金的來源和使用源和使用long-term debt長期債務(wù)長期債務(wù)equity股權(quán)股權(quán)change in w/ccurrent assets流動資

5、流動資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)current liabilities流動負(fù)債流動負(fù)債volume liquidity needsservicing還本付息servicing還本付息current creditor commit-ments流動債權(quán)人流動債權(quán)人承擔(dān)費(fèi)承擔(dān)費(fèi)deficiency?不足reserve?準(zhǔn)備金long-term creditor commit-ments長期債權(quán)人長期債權(quán)人的承擔(dān)費(fèi)的承擔(dān)費(fèi)deficiency?不足reserve?準(zhǔn)備金evaluating business plans評價商業(yè)計劃manage-ment ability管理能力funds adequacy資金充足enviro

6、n-mental coditions環(huán)境情況operating practices操作規(guī)范role of working capital營運(yùn)資本的角色current assets流動資產(chǎn)current liabilities流動負(fù)債short-term creditors commitments短期債權(quán)人承擔(dān)費(fèi)w/cnon-current assets非流動資產(chǎn)long-term debt長期負(fù)債equity股權(quán)l(xiāng)ong-term creditors commitments長期債權(quán)人承擔(dān)費(fèi)w/casset conversion cycle資產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)換周期the asset conversion c

7、ycle represents the number of days it takes a company to purchase raw materials, convert them into finished goods, sell the finished product to a customer and receive payment for the product資產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)換周期指一個公司采購原材料，轉(zhuǎn)換為成品，出售給客戶并收到付款的時間 庫存在庫天數(shù)庫存在庫天數(shù) 應(yīng)收賬款周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)應(yīng)收賬款周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù) 應(yīng)付賬款周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)應(yīng)付賬款周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù) 現(xiàn)金周轉(zhuǎn)周期 the acc has three c

8、omponents:資產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)換周期有三個部分：days receivables outstanding應(yīng)收帳款收款天數(shù)measures the average number of days from the sale of goods to the collection of receivables 衡量從貨物的出售到回收應(yīng)收賬款的平均天數(shù)(average accounts receivables/sales)*365 days （平均應(yīng)收賬款/銷售）* 365 天days inventory held庫存持有天數(shù)measures the average length of time betwe

9、en acquisition and sale of merchandise 衡量從獲得商品到出售商品之間的平均時間長度(average inventories/cost of goods sold)*365 （平均庫存/出售貨物的成本）* 365days accounts payable outstanding應(yīng)付賬款付款天數(shù)measures the average length of time between the purchase of goods and payment for them 衡量從購買商品到支付款項之間的平均時間長度(average accounts payable/p

10、urchases)*365, where （平均應(yīng)付賬款/采購）* 365 在這里，purchases = cost of goods sold+ending inventorybeginning inventory 采購=出售商品的成本+ 期末存貨-期初存貨cash cycle illustration現(xiàn)今周期說明companies公司abc1. sales rate per day 每天銷售率$1m$1m$1m2. days sales in receivables應(yīng)收帳款周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù) 3060153. days sales in inventory存貨的平均周轉(zhuǎn)期 609004. days

11、in trading cycle 交易周期天數(shù)90150155. days sales in payables 應(yīng)付賬款周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)- 45- 30- 156. days sales of working capital required 所需運(yùn)營資本天數(shù)4512007. receivable investment (1x2) 應(yīng)收賬款投資$30m$60m$15m8. inventory investment (1x3)庫存投資60m90m09. trading cycle investment (1x4)交易周期投資90m150m15m10. payable support (1x5) 應(yīng)付賬款

12、支持- 45m-30m- 15mcash flow quality現(xiàn)金流質(zhì)量qualitative aspect 定性定性high quality 質(zhì)量高質(zhì)量高low quality 質(zhì)量低質(zhì)量低inventory valuation 存貨估值lifo understates profits in inflationary period 后進(jìn)先出方法低估通脹期的利潤fifo overstates profits in inflationary period 先進(jìn)先出方法高估通脹期的利潤depreciation method 折舊方法accelerated depreciation more a

13、ccurately matches replacement cost 更準(zhǔn)確地對應(yīng)加速折舊與替代費(fèi)用straight-line depreciation under-reserves funds for fixed assets: thus, it overstates earnings 直線折舊保留了固定資產(chǎn)資金的追償權(quán)，因此，高估了收益deferred assets 遞延資產(chǎn)intangibles are written off as quickly as possible 盡快注銷無形資產(chǎn)expenses are capitalized and earnings are overstat

14、ed 費(fèi)用資本化，高估收益deferred income 遞延收益income is deferred while expenses are flowed through: for example, benefits of investment tax credits are deferred 收益遞延而開支流，例如，投資稅收抵免的好處被遞延expenses are deferred: for example, plant start-up costs and tax credits are taken immediately 開支被遞延了：例如，工廠設(shè)立成本和稅收抵免被立即tax rate

15、稅率“normal” effective tax rate usually reflects minimal reliance on various tax deferral methods investment tax credits, capital gains credits, percentage depletion deductions and therefore, better quality low effective tax rate usually reflects reliance on various tax deferral methods and therefore,

16、 low qualityservicing current liabilities流動負(fù)債處理sales volume, the rate of turnover of current assets, working capital and current creditors terms are factors that determine how a firm services current debts銷售量、流動資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率、營運(yùn)資本和當(dāng)前的貸款人條款等因素決定一個公司如何處理流動負(fù)債assume that sales double, the firm operates with posi

17、tive working capital position and the commitments from current creditors do not increase. what scenario do you foresee? 假定銷售增加一倍，公司的營運(yùn)資本為正，而目前的債權(quán)人提供的貸款額度沒有增加，你能預(yù)見什么情景？what does happen if the rate ot turnover of current assets slows to half its former rate?如果流動資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率降至原先的一半，會發(fā)生什么狀況？what does happen if

18、 the firm operates with a deficit working capital requirement?如果公司在營運(yùn)資本為赤字的條件下運(yùn)營，會發(fā)生什么狀況？overtrading? 過量交易？there are four elements of risk associated with overtrading:與過量交易相關(guān)的風(fēng)險體現(xiàn)在4個方面：1.serious depletion of profit; 利潤嚴(yán)重?fù)p耗2.organization failure associated with high volume; 由于過量交易導(dǎo)致公司破產(chǎn)3.receivables

19、losses; and 應(yīng)收帳款損失4.inventory risks 存貨風(fēng)險rule of thumb: current assets should cover total debt at the seasonal low經(jīng)驗法則：流動資產(chǎn)應(yīng)包括季度最低峰時的總負(fù)債sustainable growth可持續(xù)增長if a rapidly growing company can maintain a prudent balance between debt and equity sources, the reliance on external capital creates no probl

20、ems如果一個快速成長的公司能維持債務(wù)與股本來源之間的平衡，對外部資本的依賴不會帶來任何問題in too many instances, rapid sales growth, coupled with modest profit margins and an inability to sell new equity, forces the company to rely increasingly on bank credit很多情況下，快速的銷售收入增長，加上過低的利潤率以及無力銷售新股權(quán)，會迫使公司越來越依賴銀行信貸rapid growth may lead to increasing d

21、ebt ratios and increasing banker headaches快速的增長可能會導(dǎo)致負(fù)債率增加，讓銀行家越來越頭痛two questions to be answered to when contemplating a loan to a rapidly expanding firm:在考慮是否要給一個快速擴(kuò)張的公司貸款時，須回答以下兩個問題： is the applicant in balance? given the companys growth targets and financial policies, will the company be able to m

22、aintain a stable debt ratio over time? 申請公司是否能保持各方面的平衡？鑒于公司的增長目標(biāo)和財務(wù)政策，公司能否一直維持一個穩(wěn)定的負(fù)債率？ when can the bank expect repayment of the loan? is the requested amount sufficient or is the contemplated loan likely to be just the downpayment on a much larger commitment? 銀行何時才能期望貸款被償還？申請的貸款金額足夠嗎？或者它只是很大一筆貸款數(shù)額

23、中的首期付款？sustainable growth rate (1)可持續(xù)增長率(1)sustainable growth rate the annual percentage invcrease in sales which is consistent with a stable capital structure可持續(xù)增長率- 銷售增長的年百分比，和一個穩(wěn)定的資本結(jié)構(gòu)一致sustainable growth可持續(xù)增長target debt ratio目標(biāo)債務(wù)比率target payout ratio目標(biāo)派息比率profitmargin利潤率capital-outputratio資本產(chǎn)出比)

24、1)(1 ()1)(1 (ldptldpgsustainable growth rate (2)可持續(xù)增長率(2)p = profit margin on sales p=銷售利潤率d = the target dividend payout ratio = (1-d) is the target retention ratio d=目標(biāo)派息比率 = (1-d) 為目標(biāo)自留額比率l = the target debt-to-equity ratio l=目標(biāo)負(fù)債股本比t = the capital-output ratio defined as total assets divided by

25、net sales t=資本產(chǎn)出比，銷售凈值/總資產(chǎn)s = sales at the beginning of the period s=期初的銷售收入s = the increase in sales during the year s = 年中銷售收入增加值assets at the beginning of year年初資產(chǎn)new assets needed to support increased sales 用于支撐銷售的新資產(chǎn)liabilities and owners equity at beginning of year 年初負(fù)債與所有者權(quán)益additions to liabi

26、lities負(fù)債增加值additions to retained earnings留存收益增加值s(t)p(s+s)(1-d)lp(s+s)(1-d)example: sustainable growth rate in loan appraisal舉例：貸款評估中的可持續(xù)增長率president of radar contacts the loan officer at the bank to secure a term loan of $500,000radar公司總裁親自聯(lián)系銀行信貸員確保能獲得50萬美元的定期貸款radars target sales growth rate is 20

27、% per yearradar的目標(biāo)銷售增長率為每年20%loan officer fears that the companys debt ratio will rise steadily in future years and could jeopardize the banks position 信貸員擔(dān)心未來幾年公司的負(fù)債率會穩(wěn)固上升，會影響銀行的地位sales 銷售收入$1,375,000profit after tax 稅后利潤$82,500dividends 紅利$8,250current assets流動資產(chǎn)$700,000current liabilities流動負(fù)債$400

28、,000net fixed assets固定凈資產(chǎn)$950,000bank loan銀行貸款$500,000total assets總資產(chǎn)$1,650,000owners equity所有者權(quán)益$750,000total總計$1,650,000p = .06, l = 1.20, t = 1.20d = .10%11)2 . 11)(10.1)(06(.2 . 1)2 . 11)(10.1)(06(.gshort-term lending: what does short-term mean?短期貸款：短期是什么意思？ under short-term lending, the lender

29、can get paid in the ordinary course of events in the short-term (such as within a year)在短期貸款條件下，貸款人能按照事項的常規(guī)進(jìn)程在短期內(nèi)得到償付（如一年之內(nèi)）the lender is required to have a clear understanding of the working capital adequacy if permanent working capital is inadequate, slow payment of continuous refinancing beyond a

30、 year should be anticipated貸款人需要對營運(yùn)資本充足率有明確的認(rèn)識如果永久性營運(yùn)資本不夠，應(yīng)該持續(xù)性地再融資一年以上the elements of appropriate short-term lending include:適當(dāng)?shù)亩唐谫J款的要素包括：understanding the specific purpose 明白具體目的structuring the maturity in line with the primary source of repayment 根據(jù)償還的主要來源設(shè)計期限的結(jié)構(gòu)identifying the certainty of secon

31、dary sources of repayment implicit in the purpose 確認(rèn)目標(biāo)中已明確的償還的次要來源evaluating alternative protection available from the balance sheet; and possibly 評估資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表上存在的其他保護(hù)手段ensuring access to secondary protection by taking security 通過采取安全措施，確保能夠獲得次級保護(hù)characteristics of working capital loans營運(yùn)資本貸款的特征seasonal

32、versus permanent working capital needs運(yùn)營資本的季節(jié)性需求與永久性需求比較 all firms need some minimum level of current assets and current liabilities 所有公司都需要最低限度的流動資產(chǎn)和流動負(fù)債 the amount of current assets and current liabilities will vary with seasonal patterns 流動資產(chǎn)與流動負(fù)債的量因季節(jié)形態(tài)而異permanent working capital 永久性營運(yùn)資本 the min

33、imum level of current assets minus the minimum level of adjusted current liabilities 最低限度的流動資產(chǎn)-最低限度的調(diào)整過的流動負(fù)債adjusted current liabilities 調(diào)整后的流動負(fù)債 current liabilities net of short-term bank credit and current maturities of long-term debt 短期銀行信貸的流動負(fù)債凈額和長期債務(wù)的一年內(nèi)到期seasonal working capital 季節(jié)性營運(yùn)資本 differ

34、ence in total current assets and adjusted current liabilities 總流動資產(chǎn)與調(diào)整后的流動負(fù)債的差異total current assets總的流動資產(chǎn)總的流動資產(chǎn)minimum current assets最低流動資產(chǎn)最低流動資產(chǎn)total current liabilities總的流動負(fù)債總的流動負(fù)債minimum current liabilities最低流動負(fù)債最低流動負(fù)債total = permanent working capital needs+ seasonal working capital needs總計總計=永久運(yùn)

35、營資本需求永久運(yùn)營資本需求+ 季節(jié)性運(yùn)營資本需求季節(jié)性運(yùn)營資本需求permanent working capital needs 永久運(yùn)營資本需求永久運(yùn)營資本需求qtime時間時間seasonal working capital needs 季節(jié)性運(yùn)營資本需求季節(jié)性運(yùn)營資本需求dollarsdollars美元short-term commercial loans (1) open credit lines無固定期限信貸 loan is seasonal if the need arises on a regular basis and if the cycle completes itself

36、 with one year 如果需求是固定的，并且循環(huán)在一年內(nèi)完成的話，貸款是季節(jié)性的 used to purchase raw materials and build up inventories of finished goods in anticipation of later sales 用于采購原材料，累計成品的庫存以在日后出售 it is self-liquidating in the sense that repayment derives from the sale of finished goods that are financed 由于償還來自于通過出售融資而得的成品，

37、從這個意義上說是自償?shù)?。short-term commercial loans (2)短期商業(yè)貸款open credit lines無固定期限信貸 the bank makes a certain amount of funds available to a borrower for a set period of time 銀行在固定期限內(nèi)貸給借款人一定數(shù)量的貸款 often used for seasonal loans 通常用在季節(jié)性貸款 the customer determines the timing of the actual borrowings (“takedowns”) 客

38、戶決定實際借款的時機(jī) borrowings increase with inventory buildup and decline with the collection of receivables 借款隨著庫存增加而增加，隨著應(yīng)收賬款的收取而下降short-term commercial loans (3)短期商業(yè)貸款open credit lines無固定期限信貸 typically require that the loan be fully repaid at least once during each year to confirm that the needs are seas

39、onal 通常貸款需要在每年至少完全償還一次來證明需求的季節(jié)性 commitment fee 承擔(dān)費(fèi) a fee, in addition to interest, for making credit available 在利息之外，為了得到信貸的一筆費(fèi)用 may be based on the entire credit line or on the unborrowed balance 可能基于全部信用額度或者基于非借入余額short-term commercial loans (4)短期商業(yè)貸款asset-based loans資產(chǎn)支持貸款 loans secured by invent

40、ories 由庫存擔(dān)保的貸款 the security consists of raw materials, goods in process, and finished products. 證券包含原材料，正在加工的貨物和成品 the value of the inventory depends on the marketability of each component if the borrower goes out of business 庫存的價值取決于如果借款人破產(chǎn)，每種部件在市場上的銷路. banks will lend from 40 to 60 percent against raw materials that are common among businesses and finished goods that are marketable, and nothing against unfinished inventory 銀行的貸款相當(dāng)于常見原材料和有銷路的成品價值的40%-60%，不會針對未完成的庫存貸款short-term commerci