電力行業(yè)近期熱點問題討論之十三130306

1、12m1-212m312m412m512m612m712m812m912m1012m1112m1213m1-213m313m413m513m613m713m813m913m1013m1113m122201336021-s10105101200663200 300%021-s1010510120063200 300%4 5%021-s10105120300045,500200300%bj17.05%6.55%16%5112q113q10.070.13 0.1780 140%0.030.020.060.02-0.030.100.060.180.140.250.130.070.230.170.302

2、30 330%200 250%200 280%600 750%930 1100%wind11213212131/12%10%8%6%4%2%0%800600400200012q113q10%-5%-10%-15%-20%-25%5,5005,500bjsep-11nov-11jan-11sep-12nov-12jul-11jan-12jul-12may-11mar-11jul-07jul-08jul-09jul-10jul-11jan-07jan-08jan-09jan-10jan-11jan-12jul-12jan-13may-12mar-12jan-133200857.27.06.86.6

3、6.46.26.0wind22264,8005/203070042013620/2013650/40713/50713bj/1,1001,000900800700250200150bj/ )1.21.00.86000.6500400300200100500jan- aug- feb- sep- apr- nov- jun- jan- aug- mar- oct-07 07 08 08 09 09 10 11 11 12 12wind0.40.2-12012-1-62012-2-62012-3-62012-4-62012-5-62012-6-62012-7-62012-8-62012-9-620

4、12-10-62013-1-61-210111234567892012-11-62012-12-62013-2-661113712131,000800150%100%504060040050%30201020000%-50%0jan-11jul-11jan-12jul-12jan-13808129091320%200820112009201220101,0002009201120132010201215%10%5%0%-5%-10%800600-15%-20%4001234562a20132%2%2%25bp13eps e13eps13eps13eps13eps13p/12qe3p/b4.61

5、4.407.186.804.156.420.500.370.600.600.310.450.090.070.100.100.050.0817.8%18.6%16.5%16.9%15.3%16.9%0.060.050.070.070.030.0412.6%12.2%11.2%10.8%9.4%9.4%0.040.030.030.040.020.037.0%7.1%5.5%6.1%5.8%7.7%0.020.020.010.020.010.023.3%4.2%1.9%2.6%4.7%5.6%912121113141.51.81.41.81.42.0aa6.302.8212.626.235.924.

6、9410.618.157.530.600.331.420.510.500.510.550.900.650.080.030.120.060.040.040.060.080.0613.4%10.2%8.8%11.6%8.5%8.8%10.6%9.0%8.6%0.050.020.080.030.030.030.020.040.028.4%6.1%5.8%5.3%5.3%5.2%4.4%4.3%3.6%0.030.000.040.020.020.020.020.040.035.2%1.3%3.1%4.3%3.4%3.8%4.4%4.2%4.9%0.010.010.020.010.030.010.010

7、.010.022.0%3.1%1.1%1.2%5.3%1.1%2.1%1.4%2.6%1099121210199121.71.62.01.11.72.43.22.12.013.908.973.617.17wind0.920.540.200.642013350.070.030.010.018.0%5.6%3.4%1.3%151718111.62.12.51.626.6%558.8%56.4%zz2013200 300%z3ha-h/eps/eps0.133.391.701.5755.260.070.020.050.080.331.6510.289.2810.7182.800.810.060.25

8、0.530.50102%201311a-h1.00.80.60.40.20.013eps2%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%0713m2140%110%80% 57.9%50%14.0%20%68.7% 66.4%13m1144.7% 3 146.5%55.9%42.7%-10%wind-0.9%4a11aeps12e13e14e11a12ep/e13e14e12q3pb11aroe2.827.178.974.945.927.537.186.808.150.240.470.210.100.070.330.020.090.370.320.630.270.260.280.500.360.410.8

9、80.330.640.540.510.500.650.600.600.900.360.660.860.510.730.740.690.630.9511.915.443.150.280.322.8288.175.422.08.911.333.818.721.014.920.216.49.28.611.216.69.711.811.612.011.49.17.910.810.49.78.110.210.410.98.61.61.62.12.41.72.01.41.82.113.3%11.3%5.6%5.2%2.6%13.9%0.4%2.5%9.6%aa6.304.6112.6210.614.156

10、.426.800.130.220.210.470.140.360.210.400.410.770.350.300.350.360.600.501.420.550.310.450.550.650.580.940.560.380.480.6548.521.361.222.528.917.828.915.811.316.530.413.918.216.410.59.28.919.413.414.411.49.88.013.419.010.913.310.41.71.52.03.21.42.01.83.6%7.9%3.8%14.4%5.1%11.9%5.6%wind20133535h12eeps13e

11、14e12ep/e13e14e12q3p/b8.543.503.620.460.190.300.600.370.310.630.400.3814.814.89.711.37.69.410.87.07.71.81.11.0wind2013352011-3-232011-4-252011-5-32011-5-162011-5-312011-12-12011-12-192011-11-232012-6-82012-6-252012-10-242013-2-14-“”analyst certificationiiithe analysts primarily responsible for the p

12、reparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereby certify that: (i)the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers; and (ii)no part of the analysts compensation was, is, or will be

13、directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in thisresearch report.6008631%“”/()(1)(2)/2013130020%63005%20%263006300300300300300300-10% 5%10%10%-10% 10%10%481568811001252220012251804826foreign broker-dealer disclosures for distributing to the u.s.this report has been produced in its entirety by citic securities limited company (“citic securities”, regulated by the china securities regulatorycommission. securities business license number: z20374000). this report is being distributed in the united states by citic securities pursua